Vietnam infrastructure report q1 2016

BMI Industry ViewBMI View: A recovery in Vietnam's property market, coupled with positive regulatory changes, robust economic growth and favourable funding conditions will help to spur c

Q1 2016 www.bmiresearch.com

VIETNAM

INFRASTRUCTURE REPORT

INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2024

INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2024

Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Published by: BMI Research

Copy deadline: October 2015

© 2015 Business Monitor International Ltd

All rights reserved

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copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor

International Ltd, and as such no part of this

publication may be reproduced, repackaged,redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used

in any form or by any means graphic, electronic ormechanical, including photocopying, recording,taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or byany other means, without the express written consent

of the publisher

DISCLAIMER

INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2024

Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series

Published by: BMI Research

Copy deadline: October 2015

© 2015 Business Monitor International Ltd

All rights reserved

All information contained in this publication is

copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor

International Ltd, and as such no part of this

publication may be reproduced, repackaged,redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used

in any form or by any means graphic, electronic ormechanical, including photocopying, recording,taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or byany other means, without the express written consent

of the publisher

DISCLAIMER

All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of

BMI Industry View 7

Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020) 7

Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Vietnam 2015-2015) 8

SWOT 9

Infrastructure SWOT 9

Industry Forecast 11

Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11

Latest Updates 11

Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2014-2024) 11

Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2019-2024) 12

Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 21

Latest Updates 21

Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2014-2024) 21

Table: Competitiveness Of Vietnam's Infrastructure 22

Table: Transport Projects 35

Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 36

Latest Updates 36

Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Vietnam 2014-2024) 36

Table: Construction & Social Infrastructure Projects 50

Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 51

Latest Updates 51

Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Vietnam 2014-2024) 51

Table: Construction & Social Infrastructure 55

Industry Risk Reward Ratings 56

Vietnam - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 56

Vietnam Risk/Reward Index 56

Rewards 56

Risks 57

Asia Pacific Infrastructure RRI: Developed Markets Increasingly At Risk 59

Table: Asia Risk/Reward Index 65

Market Overview 66

Competitive Landscape 66

Table: Vietnam EQS Data 66

Company Profile 67

Cavico Corporation 67

Electricity Vietnam Group 70

Methodology 75

Industry Forecast Methodology 75

Sector-Specific Methodology 76

Risk/Reward Index Methodology 80

Sector-Specific Methodology 81

Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 81

Table: Weighting Of Indicators 82

BMI Industry View

BMI View: A recovery in Vietnam's property market, coupled with positive regulatory changes, robust

economic growth and favourable funding conditions will help to spur construction activity over the comingquarters, with the transport sector expected to outperform Growth remains below potential as ongoingreforms of state-owned enterprises will require years of implementation before any significant impact isseen

Forecast And Latest Updates

■ We maintain a positive outlook for Vietnam's construction sector and expect real growth of 5.9% in 2015and to average 6.1% per annum between 2015-2019

■ An expected recovery in the real estate market supported by easing foreign restrictions on propertyownership, resilience in exports as well as a growing tourism sector will support growth for theresidential and non-residential building segment

■ Growth will still not be at full potential, largely owing to the long implementation period required beforereforms can have a significant impact on the sector

Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020)

Construction industry

value, VNDbn 209,875.00 224,728.26 246,868.47 274,344.62 304,400.31 337,481.12 374,049.66Construction Industry

Value, Real Growth, %

■ Vietnam's Risk/Reward score remains the same at 54.2, despite dropping one position to 13th place spot,

as growth in Thailand over the past quarter saw the latter move up to 11th place

■ A brightening economic outlook indicates that risks to our outlook for the country remain on the upsideover the coming quarters

■ Positive policy formation in terms of public private partnership regulations, investment laws and foreignownership restrictions on property also support our increasingly positive outlook

Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Vietnam 2015-2015)

Geography Risk/Reward Index Rewards Rewards Industry Rewards Country Risks Industry Risks Country Risks

Source: BMI

Infrastructure SWOT

Vietnam Infrastructure Industry SWOT

Strengths ■ The country's strong project pipeline will sustain growth in the sector and add

capabilities for further development, particularly as transport structure improves

■ Rapid growth and firm government commitment has attracted investment from many

of the world's largest infrastructure companies

■ The poor state of infrastructure in the country provides plenty of opportunities forforeign investors and construction companies

■ A hike in electricity prices should stimulate investment in the energy sector

Weaknesses ■ State-owned companies dominate the infrastructure market This is especially the

case in the utilities sector, where Electricity of Vietnam's dominant position hasdeterred investors

■ Vietnam relies heavily on foreign imports and it is estimated the country requires 2mntonnes of steel billets to be imported a year

■ The country offers a risky environment for major infrastructure projects, especially inrelation to project finance operations

■ Power outages are occurring daily in Vietnam, highlighting the country's severeelectricity problems

Opportunities ■ Demand for urban infrastructure projects in transport and sanitation over our 10-year

forecast period to 2023 will rise, in tandem with urbanisation

■ Severe drought is driving demand in electricity generation sources besideshydropower, such as gas-fired and wind-powered plants

■ If the government's attempts to cool the overheating economy are successful,Vietnam will see a more stable growth trajectory over the long term

Vietnam Infrastructure Industry SWOT - Continued

■ Greater opportunities for public-private partnerships (PPP) - the country is offering theDau Giay-Phan Thiet expressway project, the first road project and the largest

infrastructure project to be developed under a PPP format

■ Efforts to implement reforms will help improve the countrys' business environment,attracting greater foreign direct investment

Threats ■ A possible shift in the Vietnamese government's focus - from driving economic

growth towards fighting inflation and addressing macroeconomic imbalances - couldhave a cooling effect on the sector

■ Without foreign capital, public spending cuts and tighter credit conditions are likely tokeep economic activity depressed

■ Lack of energy infrastructure holds downside risk to nearly all projects and presents asignificant bottleneck to development

■ Should any significant events occur to highlight Vietnam's structural difficulties,uncertainty and downside risks in the business environment could have a negativeimpact going forward

■ The EU predicts Vietnam will not become a true market economy until 2018, and eventhis forecast is somewhat ambitious

Industry Forecast

Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario

BMI View: A recovery in Vietnam's property market, coupled with positive regulatory changes, robust

economic growth and favourable funding conditions will help to spur construction activity over the coming quarters, with the transport sector expected to outperform Growth remains below potential as ongoing reforms of state-owned enterprises will require years of implementation before any significant impact is seen.

Latest Updates

■ The residential building segment is on track for a recovery, with strong growth in demand over H115.Easing of foreign ownership restrictions will also help to spur demand, in turn boosting constructionactivity

■ The country's exports remain resilient, and a robust economic outlook will help support non-residentialconstruction

■ Transport infrastructure remains a focus, and Metro Pacific Investment Corporation's recent investmentinto the country highlights potential in the road construction segment

Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2014-2024)

2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f

Construction

industry value,

VNDbn 209,875 224,728 246,868 274,345 304,400 337,481 374,050 414,133 458,444 506,937 560,011Construction

Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2019-2024)

Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2019-2024) - Continued

Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2019-2024) - Continued

f = BMI forecast Source: National sources, BMI

The outlook for Vietnam's construction sector is gradually improving, underpinned by a recovery in theresidential market, positive regulatory changes, robust economic growth and favourable funding conditions

We forecast the sector to grow by 5.0% and 6.2% in 2015 and 2016 in real terms respectively We expectreal growth to average 6.1% between 2017 and 2019, which represents an increase from the 4.8% annualaverage growth rate registered over the period 2010-2014

Stronger Quarters Ahead

Vietnam - Construction Industry Value, VNDbn

Construction industry value, VNDbn (LHS) Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y (RHS)

2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 0

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

5 6 7

4 8

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office, BMI

According to the Vietnam General Statistics Office, the construction sector expanded by 4.9% y-o-y inQ315, bringing growth for the first three quarters of 2015 to 4.2% y-o-y While growth over the first ninemonths of 2015 is still below our full year forecast, we expect construction activity to accelerate over thecoming quarter and beyond

Growth Gaining Traction

Vietnam - Construction Industry Value, VNDbn (LHS); % chg y-o-y (RHS)

Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office, BMI

Property Sector Poised For Recovery

A key factor supporting growth over the coming quarters is an improving residential property marketoutlook, with demand being propped up by foreign buyers While the residential market has seen subduedgrowth over the past years since its property market bubble burst four years ago, favourable policies areexpected to help spur a recovery in the market As of July 1 2015, foreigners are able to purchase property

in the country based on the amended Law on Residential Housing (LRH) which was approved by thegovernment in November 2014 Under the amended LRH, foreigners granted visas to Vietnam are allowed

to buy residential properties for a 50-year leasehold tenure, with possibility of renewal In addition,

properties owned by foreigners can now be sub-leased, inherited and collateralised, whereas they werepreviously limited to occupancy purposes only

Other factors will also help to support demand for housing, including a growing middle income class aswell as Vietnamese living overseas returning to the country Property sales data attest to a strengthening ofthe sector, and for the period H115, both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City recorded 9,250 and 8,750

transactions respectively, representing a doubling of sales over the same period last year, according toThanh Nien News.

Beyond the residential building segment, other factors that we highlighted previously will continue tosupport the broader construction sector over the coming quarters

Improving Regulatory Environment: We highlight improvements in the country's regulatory environment

which will help to boost foreign direct investment (FDI), following the issuance of the government decree(15/2015/ND-CP) regarding public-private-partnerships (PPPs) and the 2014 Investment Law (see 'NewDecree To Boost Infrastructure Investment Climate', March 5 and 'Investment Law To Lift BusinessEnvironment', June 16) The Vietnamese government is also implementing several structural reformsincluding restructuring and privatising SOEs, raising electricity prices, as well as widening and streamliningthe tax base These changes will contribute to a gradual improvement in the country's business environment,boosting construction activity

FDI Returns

Vietnam - Foreign Direct Investment, USDmn (LHS) And % chg y-o-y (RHS)

Source: World Bank, BMI

Conducive Monetary Conditions: Meanwhile, easing monetary conditions will help lower the cost of

capital for construction companies and ease liquidity within the country, boosting construction activity OurCountry Risk (CR) team believes that benign inflation will allow the Vietnamese central bank ample room

to cut rates, and expect the State Bank of Vietnam to lower its refinancing rate by 50 basis points (bps) to

6.00% (see 'Benign Inflation To Allow For Lower Interest Rates', July 29 2015) Although we acknowledge

that the banking sector remains burdened by bad debts, ongoing banking reform efforts by the governmentshould gradually strengthen the local banks Construction input costs are also on a downtrend

Room For Easing

Vietnam - Policy Rate, %; CPI For Housing And Construction Material, % chg y-o-y

Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office, State Bank of Vietnam, BMI

Improving Economic Environment: Vietnam's robust economic activity should also boost the financial

viability of existing infrastructure, making it more attractive for investors to finance new projects Our CR

team forecasts the country's GDP to grow by 6.4% and 6.6% in 2015 and 2016 respectively (see 'A Regional

Bright Spot', September 29) The country's manufacturing sector remains strong, and exports have remained

resilient even amidst a global slowdown, largely owing to a substantial exposure to the US and EU, whichboth account for approximately 40% of Vietnam's exports Continued foreign investment into the country'manufacturing sector will help to boost the non-residential buildings segment

Export Resilience A Boon

Vietnam - Nominal Value Of Exports, USDmn (LHS); % chg y-o-y (RHS)

Source: General Statistics Office Of Vietnam, Bloomberg, BMI

Transport Sector In Focus

We believe Vietnam's transport sector will be the key sector driving construction activity Based on ourInfrastructure Key Projects Database, transport infrastructure accounts for over 50% of the projects in the'Under Construction' stage The government is keen to focus on developing the road sector and is targeting

to build an additional 2,500km of highways by 2019, given the critical role roads play in Vietnam's trade

and the increasing pressures the current network is facing due to urbanisation Philippine-based Metro

Pacific Tollways Corporation's (MPTC) purchase of a stake in Vietnam-based CII Bridges and Roads

Investment Joint Stock Company reinforces our positive views on Vietnam's road sector (see 'MPTC Move

Reinforces Vietnam's Road Potential', September 30) The airport sector, while accounting for only a small

segment - approximately 6.0% - of the infrastructure sector, will also see significant opportunities as thegovernment continues to focus on developing the country as a transit hub, and has approved construction ofthe controversial Long Thanh International Airport

Potential Still Not Maximised

Despite our positive medium-term outlook for Vietnam's construction sector, we believe the sector is stillnot maximising its growth potential Decades of preferential treatment, subsidies and weak oversight fromthe government have not only allowed state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to propagate the inefficient use ofinvestment capital (for example, the oversupply of airports and ports in the country), but also fostered abusiness environment that is uncompetitive and not driven by market forces This has led to mounting lossesfor SOEs that the government is obliged to pay, and a crowding out of the private sector Despite efforts tobring about reforms, we highlight these measures will require several years of implementation before theyhave a material impact on project financing Incoherence in development plans across sectors also remains aproblem, a case in point being the lack of road infrastructure to support connectivity to ports

Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview

BMI View: Vietnam's transport sector will be a key focus of the country, and forms the bulk of the

infrastructure investment pipeline based on our Key Projects Database A significant transport

infrastructure deficit indicates numerous opportunities for growth, and the government also has ambitious plans to build roads, railways, ports and airports Such growth will also be supported by improvements in the country's legal and regulatory environment, which will facilitate private sector investment

Latest Updates

■ Philippine-based Metro Pacific Tollways Corp's (MPTC) expansion into Vietnam's road sector highlightsthe significant growth and profit potential of the sector According to the Ministry of Transport, Vietnamhas targets to build 2,500km of highways by 2020, with an expected investment totalling VND394.5trn(USD17.5bn)

■ The approval of the Hon Khoai port project in July has prompted us to raise our growth forecast for thesector as we continue to note the relative poor quality of Vietnam's port infrastructure presents significantopportunity

■ The approval of the construction of the USD16bn Long Thanh International Airport in June 2015

reinforces our positive view on Vietnam's airport sector and underscores the government's willingness tochannel public funds into the sector despite fiscal constraints

Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Vietnam 2014-2024)

2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f

Transport infrastructure industry value

Roads and Bridges Infrastructure

Industry Value Real Growth, % y-o-y 12.8 9.7 10.9 8.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6Railways infrastructure industry value

Airports infrastructure industry value

Ports, Harbours and Waterways

Infrastructure Industry Value Real

National Sources, BMI

The transport sector forms the bulk of infrastructure investment pipeline in Vietnam across our 10-yearforecast period to 2024 and is expected to account for approximately 66% in 2024 In part, this is becausethe country still suffers from a significant deficit in transportation infrastructure and we believe the

Vietnamese government will continue to develop this sector over the medium term Therefore, we expecttransport infrastructure industry value to grow by an annual average of 5.3% y-o-y between 2015-2019 inreal terms.

Table: Competitiveness Of Vietnam's Infrastructure

Rank/133 in 2009/10 Rank/139 in 2010/11 Rank/142 in 2011/12 Rank/144 in 2012/13 Rank/148 in 2013/14

Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report

Roads

Within the transport infrastructure sector, the roads and bridges sub-sector leads in terms of contributions tototal transport infrastructure industry value, accounting for 50% of total value in 2013 Although most ofVietnam's national road network is paved (only 26%, or 46,650km out of 180,549km, is unpaved as of2008), surveys indicated approximately 40% of the network is in a poor or very poor condition, and willrequire substantial investment to reach a maintainable condition

Driving a need for road construction is congestion, particularly in urban areas (such as Ho Chi Minh andHanoi), which has been exacerbated by growing passenger car numbers - with more people trading theirmotorcycles for cars While one in two citizens in Vietnam owns a motorcycle, they are gradually losingpopularity; registered motorcycle numbers in Vietnam fell from 3.3-3.7mn units over the period 2011-2013

to 2.9mn in 2014, according to official data Conversely, passenger car sales surged by 32.4% in 2014, andour Autos team expects demand momentum to continue, with sales forecast to grow by an annual average of11.4% between 2015 and 2019

In addition, roads remain the main mode of transport for freight and account for approximately 75% of thecountry's freight transport as of 2012 Our Country Risk team is increasingly bullish on Vietnam's economy,and in September it raised the forecast for the country's GDP growth to 6.6% on the back of strong foreign

direct investment (FDI) inflows and export resilience (see 'A Regional Bright Spot', September 29 2015) As

such, growing trade volumes to and from the country will support the need to improve connectivity to ruralareas as well as ports.

Roads Dominant

Transport Infrastructure Value By Sector (2013-2019)

Railways infra industry value Ports, Harbours and Waterways Infra Industry Value Roads and bridges infra industry value Airports infra industry value

2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 0

25,000 50,000 75,000

e/f = BMI estimate/forecast Source: National sources, BMI

The government is therefore looking to improve the situation by prioritising road construction projects, andthe Transport Ministry announced in March 2015 that it will target to construction 2,500km of highway by

2020, with 2,700km being the bull case scenario and 2,300km being the less optimistic scenario According

to the ministry, the state will have to spend over VND181.2 tn (USD8.52bn) building a total of 2,708km ofhighways from now to 2020 if it follows the most optimistic scenario and will require around VND213.3tn(USD10bn), which will be invested by various sectors, including the private sector

Despite the high potential for growth and substantial project pipeline, we highlight concerns on the financialviability of projects Part of this lack of viability is due to the high cost of construction for expresswayswithin Vietnam According to an official report from the Ministry of Construction in September 2012, thecost of constructing an expressway in Vietnam is about 1.5-2.0 times higher than comparable roads inChina, Europe and Africa The HCMC-Trung Luong expressway, for example, costs around USD9.9mn per

km, higher than an average expressway in China (USD6mn/km) and the US (USD8mn/km)

Costly To Build

Investment Cost of Expressways In Vietnam, USDmn Per km

Source: Vietnam the Business Times

We believe there are several factors contributing to this high construction cost for toll roads:

■ The lack of project management and technical expertise to complete road projects within budget,

resulting in site clearance delays and cost overruns To resolve this problem, the transport ministry isplanning to classify investors and contractors into three grades - A, B and C - with companies at eachgrade developing projects of the same grade

■ Corruption, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that 30% of a project's value is pocketed by the

contractor, in order to pay bribes to relevant parties

■ Deficiency in regulations and government institutions that effectively balance the need to safeguard thepublic interest with the need for expeditious provision of land for infrastructure development The currentregulation - Decree 69/2009/ND-CP - only gives district-level people's committees, not the centralgovernment, the right to hire companies to settle site clearance and compensation issues

■ Difficult geological conditions; most of Vietnam's terrain is uneven

■ A lack of specialised government institutions that can mediate between developers and landowners aboutcompensation Combined with the perceived potential for corruption at the district level, these

deficiencies do not provide landowners with the assurance that they are receiving the fair amount ofcompensation for their land As a result, they are unwilling to sell their land, causing delays in siteclearances and cost overruns for road projects

At the same time, businesses and commuters are unable to support higher toll rates These factors increasethe difficulties for Vietnam to raise financing for several road projects According to a master transport planfor HCM City (approved by the government in April 2013), the city will upgrade or expand five

expressways - the HCM City-Long Thanh-Dau Giay expressway, the HCM City-Thu Dau Mot-Chon Thanhexpressway, the HCM City-Moc Bai expressway, the Ben Luc-Long Thanh expressway and the Bien Hoa-Vung Tau expressway - and build five four-lane flyovers with a total length of 70.7km To finance theseprojects, the city will need VND45trn between 2013 and 2015

Compounding the problem, the Vietnamese government is heavily burdened by the debts of its state-ownedenterprises (SOEs), and the need to repay this debt is limiting the government's ability to finance

infrastructure projects For example, Vietnam Expressway Corporation is facing the risk of falling into

insolvency as it could be unable to pay its bond holders To secure financing for road development, theMinistry of Transport started collecting a fee for road maintenance from the start of 2013 This is because anumber of key roads are deteriorating rapidly and the government does not have sufficient funds to boost itsbudget for road maintenance - the ministry estimates that it only meets 40% of the funds needed for roadmaintenance The government is also hiking toll fees for existing roads and implementing new toll stations

on certain expressways - Intellasia reported that transport costs in Vietnam would treble by 2015 when 21new BOT toll stations on NH-1A are operational, plus a rise of 3.5 times in road fees

We highlight that foreign investment in road projects has become increasingly forthcoming In March 2013,Japan and Vietnam exchanged a diplomatic note that stated that Japan will finance 12 projects worth acombined USD2.2bn, mostly in transport infrastructure (such as the third phase of the Nhat Tan Bridge and

the second phase of a road project linking Noi Bai Airport with Nhat Tan Bridge) In May 2013, Goldman

Sachs, as leader of a lending syndicate, reached an agreement with the BT 20 Joint Stock Company

consortium to provide USD250mn for the rehabilitation (first phase) of the 110km NH-20 under a BTformat

In September 2015, Philippine-based Metro Pacific Tollways Corporation (MPTC), a subsidiary of

Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (MPIC) announced that it had completed the PHP4.1bn

investment into CII Bridges and Roads Investment Joint Stock Company (CII B&R), allowing the former totake a significant minority interest equal to 45% of CII B&R's total capital CII B&R is majority owned byCII, one of the largest private infrastructure development companies in Vietnam, with exposure to tollroads, water, real estate, and engineering and construction Notably, CII B&R has a rich project portfoliocomprising five operating road projects, two projects under construction and another, which it expects tosecure over the coming months

Railways will account for close to 24% of Vietnam's total transport infrastructure industry value in 2014,

according to BMI's forecasts Vietnam's rail network stretches for 2,632km, but only 527km is standard

gauge (1.435m gauge) The network has around 1,790 bridges totalling 45km and 11.5km of tunnels Theprincipal axis is Hanoi-Ho Chi Minh City (1,726km) Other lines emanating from Hanoi are to Hai Phong(102km), Lao Cai (296km) and Dong Dang (162km) While we hold a moderate outlook for the segmentand expect the sector to grow by an annual average of 2.4% between 2015-2019, we believe there aresignificant upside risks to our forecast as the government looks to improve on existing railways and

construct new high-speed rails

In February 2015, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung approved the development strategy for Vietnam'srailway transport until 2020, with a vision to 2050, targeting development of the national railway transportsystem's infrastructure and high-level management of transport and services The strategy outlines varioustargets to be achieved by 2020:

■ The railway sector is to meet about 1-2% of the passenger transport market share

■ The railway sector is to meet about 1-3% of the goods transport market share

■ The railway sector aims to claim 4-5% of the urban passenger transportation market share in big citiessuch as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

■ Increasing the average speed of the north-south route to 80-90kph for passenger trains and 50-60kph forthose transporting goods

■ Building a 1.435mm gauge high-speed dual track line on the north-south route

The strategy also outlines targets by 2030:

■ The railway sector is to meet about 3-4% of the passenger transport market share

■ The railway sector is to meet about 4-5% of the goods transport market share

■ The railway sector aims to claim 15-20% of the urban passenger transportation market share in big citiessuch as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

Vietnam had previously planned to build a USD56bn north-south high-speed railway line, but this wasrejected by the Vietnamese National Assembly in June 2010 The proposed project has since resurfaced,with Japan announcing in September 2012 that it remains keen to assist Vietnam in building this north-

south high-speed railway line by 2030 In November 2013, an amended proposal was submitted, prepared

by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, proposes to upgrade the existing north-south rail route atthe cost of USD1.8bn before commencing building a new line, which will be pushed back to 2030

This differs slightly from an earlier proposal made in April 2013, in which state-owned Transport

Engineering Design Inc (TEDI) suggested that work on the north-south high-speed railway project in

Vietnam should be delayed and the focus should be shifted on upgrading the current north-south track Itfurther proposed that the speed of the north-south high-speed train should be slowed down to 150-200kmper hour from more than 200km per hour, while the time frame for the development of the trans-Asiarailway should be reconsidered along with the rail lines connected to seaports, industrial zones and touristsites

There are still plans to build a high-speed railway line between Laos and Vietnam The USD5bn high-speedrailway project, which is close to starting construction work, will span 220km from the Laos central

province of Savannakhet to the Lao Bao border gate of neighbouring Vietnam and is expected to be

operational over the next five years

Instead of a high-speed railway line, the government is looking to increase the speed of the existing gauge north-south railway line In April 2013, the Ministry of Transport said that it had assigned theVietnam Railway Corporation to make a detailed plan to increase the speed of the line from 90km/h to200km/h This could be done in two phases The first phase would increase the speed of the line from 90km/

normal-h to 110km/normal-h, wnormal-hile tnormal-he second pnormal-hase would involve tnormal-he construction of a new double-track standard gaugeline that increases the line's speed to 220km/h

The government is also looking to improve its existing railway network In March 2013, the Ministry ofTransport said that between 2013 and 2020, the Vietnam Railway Corporation needed to focus on

improving the existing railway system and building several new 1,435mm gauge dual track lines along theexisting 1,726km north-south (Ngoc Hoi-Phu Ly) railway line Under the amended planning the railwaysector would require around VND365.242trn (USD17.4bn) to 2020 for upgrading six existing lines, puttinginto place three new arterial routes, including some lines heading seaports, economic zones and tourist sites

In December 2014, the Vietnam Railway Administration urged the transport ministry to appraise andapprove a USD10bn plan to upgrade the North-South railway in the country According to the plan, thetrans-Vietnam railway, from Hanoi railway station to the Hoa Hung railway station in Ho Chi Minh City,will be upgraded to grade II railway standards, from grade I The average speed will increase from thecurrent 50km/h to 80-90 km/h for passenger trains and 50-60 km/h for cargo trains The upgrade plan will

be implemented in three phases The Hanoi-Vinh section will be upgraded in the USD580mn first phase,the Nha Trang-Saigon section will be upgraded in the USD5.7bn second phase and the remaining projectswill be upgraded in phase three

This urbanisation trend is felt acutely in Hoh Chi Minh City and Hanoi, the country's largest cities and chiefcommercial hubs Both cities are home to approximately 16% of the country's total population and trafficconditions have worsened Congestion occurs frequently at road junctions during rush hour and averagetraffic speeds vary from around 10-30km/h in both cities There is much scope for traffic conditions toworsen further Not only could there be a fundamental shift to cars due to rising incomes - for example,90% of the vehicles in HCM City are motorcycles - but Vietnam is also looking to accelerate the

urbanisation rate in the country According to a draft national urban development programme approved bythe government in June 2012, Vietnam will strive to achieve an urbanisation rate of 38% with 870 urbanareas by 2015, and 45% with 940 urban areas by 2020 The country is estimated to currently have anurbanisation rate of 30%

The development of an urban railway system will, therefore, help alleviate many of the problems associatedwith congestion No other system can carry more people and run on such a dependable schedule at a lowercost, and we expect Vietnam to continue to push forward with urban railway projects As of May 2012, thegovernment transport plan for Hanoi to 2030 included eight urban railways, with a total length of 284km,and six subway lines, linking key parts of Hanoi and its outlying areas Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City aims

to complete around six metro lines with a total length of 120km by 2020

Some of these urban railway plans have moved forward (such as Ho Chi Minh City's Ben Thanh-Suoi TienMetro line 1, the underground section of the Metro line 2), but just like the roads sector, several have alsofaced delays This is because they are suffering from slow site clearances (such as the Cat Linh Street-HaDong District railway line in Hanoi, which is two years behind schedule), cost overruns (such as the Nhon-Hanoi Station urban railway line No 3), the lack of a legal framework, a lack of proper planning forunderground space and integration with other transport modes, and the lack of skilled labour

The sector is also heavily reliant on financing, mainly official development assistance loans, from severalforeign countries and multinational development banks This has caused delays as to access these loansVietnam needs to conform to the regulations of all its donors, making it difficult to coordinate constructionwork for the projects In addition, European banks are set to face difficult economic conditions and strictercapital controls over the coming years This could lead to a decline in European financing for Vietnameseprojects and has already transpired, with the Spanish government announcing in late November 2012 that itwould only provide 40% of the financing it had initially promised for an urban railway project in Ho ChiMinh City (Metro Line No 5)

Having said that, some lenders remain keen to provide funds for Vietnam's urban railway sector In March

2013, Japan and Vietnam exchanged a diplomatic note, under which Japan agreed to finance 12 localprojects such as the first phase of the Hanoi urban railway line 1 (Gia Lam-Giap Bat)

Officials from the Ho Chi Minh City administration also pointed out in March 2013 that the Asian

Development Bank (ADB) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) will provide a combined USD735mnfor the Metro Line No.2 The loan agreement for the Metro Line No.2 was signed in July 2013 Line 5 ofthe Ho Chi Minh metro system will be financed by three international organisations, according to theRailway Gazette The Asian Development Bank, the European Investment Bank and the Spanish

government will provide USD500mn, EUR150mn (USD206mn) and EUR200mn (USD275mn)

respectively, to construct in 2015 the first 8.9km of the line that is slated to run between Sai Gon Bridge andthe Bay Hien Intersection

Although roads and railways are dominating transport infrastructure, we highlight that ports, harbours andwaterways will see their share increase significantly over the coming years Vietnam's dense river and canalnetwork - which measures 17,702km - provides the country with a highly developed inland waterwaysystem, but its port infrastructure is poor by international standards The main ports currently in operationsare the Cam Pha Port, Da Nang, Haiphong, Ho Chi Minh, Phu My and Quy Nhon

Vietnam's seaport network comprises many small- and medium-sized entities, with inefficient distribution.Most ports in the northern part of Vietnam are dispersed and small in scale, while most big ports are located

on rivers, such as Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City, with limited depth at the entrance Some ports arelocated in big cities, thus making it difficult to connect with other modes of transport due to traffic

congestion With the exception of several new or upgraded ports, most have been operating for many yearsand lack investment The loading and unloading equipment in some ports is obsolete, leading to lowproductivity The average productivity of a Vietnamese port is only 2,500 tonnes/m per wharf, which is lessthan half of the productivity of other ports in the region

Activity in the maritime sector is mainly concentrated on boosting the capacity of the southern economiczone, especially in the Thi Vai River area Major global port operators with interests in the region include

Hutchison Port Holdings, Singapore's PSA International, Saigon Port, Denmark's Maersk and France's Compagnie Maritime d'Affrètement-Compagnie Générale Maritime (CMA CGM) These companies

have all been involved in the operation and development of major Vietnamese ports in the Thi Vai River

BMI anticipates increasing investment into Vietnam's port infrastructure over the long term, as it is a sector

crucial to the country's economic growth There are two major factors central to our view:

■ The country needs to upgrade its ports to avoid major bottlenecks, which would constrain the country'sexport-led growth and investment

■ Vietnam is becoming increasingly important, not just to growing Intra-Asian trade but also on the globalstage An increasing number of shipping companies are choosing Vietnam as their port of call as they plythe east-west trade route Vietnam's ports are gradually graduating from feeder stop-offs on the majorroutes to boasting direct services on both the Asia-US and Asia-Europe services

Indeed, the government estimates cargo handling at Vietnam's ports to reach 680mn tonnes by 2020, upfrom just 400 million in 2015, reaching 2,100mn tonnes by 2030 Vietnam is thus keen to address its portinfrastructure deficit, and in 2014 amended the 'system port master plan' which aims to see the expansion ofVietnam's seaport system by 2020, following the signing of Decision No 1037/QD-TTg by the prime

minister, which replaces the previous document dated December 24 2009 Under the new master plan,Vietnam's seaport system will be divided into six groups of ports:

■ Group 1: northern seaports from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh,

■ Group 2: north-central ports from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh,

■ Group 3: mid-central ports from Quang Binh to Quang Ngai,

■ Group 4: south central port group from Binh Dinh to Binh Thuan,

■ Group 5: southeastern port group (including Con Dao Island), and

■ Group 6: group of ports in the Mekong River Delta (including Phu Quoc Island and other southwesternislands)

Given the amended system port master plan, we expect a more coherent and synchronised development ofport infrastructure over the coming years We note that the Hon Khoi port (the construction of which wasapproved in July 2015), for example, will be deep enough to accommodate ships with the current largestcapacities in the world, which will plug a gap in the sector; Vietnam's only current deep-sea facility is theCai Mep port located at the mouth of the Cai Mep River and South China Sea The mega-port development

is also indicative of the realisation of the need to match infrastructure development to the demand ofexporters Previous investments in the sector have largely been focussed on the need to improve portinfrastructure generally, rather than meeting the demands of trade dynamics, which has seen the

proliferation of many underutilised small and medium sized ports Larger port developments will allow forexporters to cluster and benefit from economies of scale - increasingly important in a regional context asChinese manufacturers look outside their domestic market for lower cost manufacturing locations

Commercial Viability Of Ports Under Pressure

While the construction outlook in the port sector is set to be buoyed by the approval of the Hon Khoai port,

we continue to highlight profitability risks for port operators due to a lack of coordinated planning fordevelopment projects across subsectors Road construction, for example, is extremely crucial in supportingtransportation to and from newly constructed ports, and a lack of connectivity to ports such as the Phu Quocport, has led to a low utilisation of constructed facilities Furthermore, we highlight an oversupply ofcompeting seaports domestically, which has severely undermined the profitability of port facilities A case

in point is the Cai Mep International Terminal, which competes against the six other terminals, and isrunning at 30% of capacity, according to a report in 2013 by Maersk Over competition had in fact led to thegovernment setting a two-year minimum handling rate of USD46 per 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) in

2013, with the minimum rate in place until August 2015 As mentioned previously, given the scale of the

Hon Khoai port it should have a competitive advantage, we expect such profitability concerns to be aconcern for potential investors raise the possibility of delays in its construction.

Airports

Although the airport infrastructure sub-sector accounts for the smallest portion of transport infrastructure,the government has ambitious plans to modernise and expand the country's airport infrastructure, whichconsists of 44 airports The government's initial plans were to develop 10 international airports by 2020:Noi Bai, Cat Bi, Phu Bai, Danang, Chu Lai, Cam Ranh, Tan Son Nhat, Long Thanh, Can Tho and PhuQuoc; and 16 domestic airports in the same timeframe, which includes Dien Bien Phu, Na San, Lao Cai,Quang Ninh, Gia Lam, Vinh, Dong Hoi, Phu Cat, Tuy Hoa, Pleiku, Buon Ma Thuot, Lien Khuong, RachGia, Ca Mau, Con Son and Vung Tau

This willingness by the government to get projects under way for the private sector (although this is

partially due to a lack of public funds) provides grounds for optimism and this has attracted foreign

investors to the sector In April 2013, the Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) tasked Parsons

Brinckerhoff with investigating the potential to develop the Chu Lai airport into a regional cargo hub Thestudy was funded by a grant from the US Trade and Development Agency In June 2013, ADC-HASAirports reiterated its interest in expanding the Cam Ranh Airport and Danang airport

However, the lack of demand for air travel in the near term and the stiff competition from other airports inAsia to serve as regional hubs could make it difficult for these new airports to be financially viable

Since early 2012, Vietnam has announced that it was in the search for foreign investors to help constructtwo international airports: the USD1.2bn Van Don International airport in the northern province of QuangNinh and the USD10bn Long Thanh International airport in the southern province of Dong Nai The twoairports are part of a strategy to compete with neighbouring airports in Thailand and Singapore According

to Nguyen Cong Hoan, a director for the Vietnamese airport operator ACV, foreign investors have alreadyexpressed interest in the Van Don airport, with South Korean investors being highlighted as one of theinterested parties in late-2012 Interested investors were due to complete project documents and submitthem to provincial and central agencies in November 2012

The Long Thanh airport, approved in 2011, also appears to be making some progress, albeit slowly InMarch 2013, the provincial government of Dong Nai disclosed a development plan for the area surroundingLong Thanh International Airport The government plans to develop a tourism complex, several industrialclusters and world-class sporting, education and healthcare venues in the 21,000-hectare (ha) area The plan

entails development of 12 communes in Long Thanh and Cam My districts in the area, excluding the5,000ha zoned for the terminal, by 2025 The northern part of the airport covering 5,720ha will boastcondominiums for aviation employees and locals, while the southern area covering about 4,400ha will boast

an international transhipment centre, a supporting industrial park and an area zoned for fruit farms andindustrial plants The plan is likely to be implemented in three phases during 2012-2025, with land

acquisition estimated to cost VND10trn as of March 2013

The terminal will also be developed in three phases, starting from 2015 The first phase (2015-2020)requires USD5.6bn for the construction of two runways, taxiways, aircraft parking zones and two terminalswith an annual handling capacity of 25mn passengers and 1.2mn tonnes of cargo The second phase

(2020-2030) involves the construction of a third runway and the increase in passenger handling capacity by50%, while cargo handling capacity is increased to 1.5mn tonnes per annum The third phase (2030-unknown) involves the construction of a fourth runway and the increase in passenger and cargo handlingcapacity to 100mn passengers and 5mn tonnes of cargo per annum

Both airports are part of the government's strategy to develop as many as six international airports, whichinclude locations such as Cam Ranh, Chu Lai, Danang and Hue The Long Thanh airport is the centrepiece

of this expansion, as it is the largest greenfield airport project in Vietnam (and possibly in Asia), with aneventual annual passenger capacity of 100mn per annum, a 5mn tonne cargo capacity and four runways

While there are compelling factors driving the government to build new airports - to meet a growingdemand to travel within Vietnam's population and to unlock the growth potential of its tourism sector -these airports could struggle to be financially viable if their aim is to serve as regional transit hubs Not only

is there a lot of competition from other airports in Asia to serve as regional hubs, but these airports alreadyhave well established airlines using them as their main point of transit

Several airports in Vietnam, particularly in the central provinces, were already operating way below

capacity, despite the rapid rise in tourists The Dong Hoi airport incurred losses of VND6.9bn

(USD332,000) in 2010 and VND9bn (USD432,000) in 2011 This suggests that the demand for newairports is not broad-based throughout Vietnam, with air traffic in certain regions still immature

Another reason for this lack of usage could be due to the small number of runways that are able to handleinternational flights Most of the international flights in Vietnam are handled by just three of the country's

21 airports, while only nine of these have runways with a length of more than 3,047m, which is a standardrequirement to handle international flights for wide-body aircraft This suggests that Vietnam could need toupgrade the runways in its existing airports, rather than construct new airports As of September 2012,

Vietnam continues to find difficulty in securing financing for its airport projects and is still seeking

investment capital from different sources

The government has since recognised this lack of financial viability for some of these proposed airports and

is shifting its focus on a few key airports such as Noi Bai, Danang and Long Thanh The smaller airportssuch as Lao Cai, Lai Chau and Quang Ninh could be developed after 2020, according to official from theMinistry of Transport in April 2013

Meanwhile, it was announced in early 2014 that Vietnam's Ministry of Transport is awaiting approval fromthe Prime Minister of Vietnam, Nguyen Tan Dung, to partially privatise the country's state-owned airportoperator, ACV The delays to several projects, as well as the development of several airports that haveoperated below capacity have arisen due to a lack of private sector participation Asset sales in the country'sairport sector appear to be gaining traction and French airport operator Aeroports de Paris (ADP) hasexpressed interest in being a strategic stakeholder of Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) through a25-30% ownership, according to the Vietnam Investment Review With greater private or foreign

participation, we believe the Vietnamese government will be able to unlock a sizeable amount of capital forthe development of new airports in Vietnam as well as increase the likelihood for airport projects to bedriven by market forces

However, we highlight that the privatisation of ACV is not the alpha and omega in generating sustainablegrowth in Vietnam's airport infrastructure sector Regulatory reforms are also necessary to eliminateexisting hurdles to project execution such as permit approvals, environmental clearances and land

acquisition Regulatory reforms are also needed to create a legal framework that ensures a competitivemarket and eliminates economic wastage At present, ACV is operating as a monopoly in Vietnam's airportsector This creates significant scope for corruption and rent-seeking as private investors that own ACVcould focus on eliminating the competition and arbitrarily increase fees that are not in the public's interest

Operations at Hanoi's new international terminal took place on December 31 2014 Around 99% of theterminal construction has been completed and the contractor has met the progress and quality targets set forthe project The facility will operate as an international air terminal, with 96 check-in counters, 17 boardinggates, 10 self-service kiosks and 283 flight information display systems The facility is 996m long and has139,000sq m total gross floor area The airport has plans to construct an additional two terminals as itattempts to boost capacity to 50mn passengers a year

Table: Transport Projects

{Philippines}, Vietnam Expressway Corporation[Operator]{Vietnam}

{Vietnam}

Under construction

{Philippines}, CDM Smith Inc[Consultant/

Project Management]{United States}

Under construction

Top five projects by value Source: BMI Infrastructure Key Projects Database

Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview

BMI View: Despite investment in Vietnam's energy and utilities segment expected to be below the transport

segment, increase in demand for power in light of economic and population growth will still require a substantial build up of supporting power infrastructure Private investment in the sector will be crucial in supporting its growth due to the fiscal weakness of the government.

Latest Updates

■ We note an increase in foreign investor interest in Vietnam's power plant sector, following

Malaysia-based JAKS Resources Berhad's announcement that it will enter a joint venture with Chinese CPECC

Group to build a thermal power plant in Vietnam.

■ Coal is expected to remain the main source of power, and according to the Seventh Power DevelopmentPlan, a target of developing 75,000MW of power generation capacity by 2020 has been set, with coal-based plants accounting for 48% of this investment

■ Foreign investment into Vietnam's water sector also underscores the significant growth potential, and we

highlight recent announcements from Philippine-based Manila Water Company.

Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Vietnam 2014-2024)

2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f

Energy and utilities infrastructure

industry value real growth, % y-o-y 8.5 5.1 5.4 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5Power plants and transmission grids

infrastructure industry value real

Oil and gas pipelines infrastructure

industry value real growth, % y-o-y 1.8 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5Water infrastructure industry value

National Sources, BMI

Although total investment in the transport sector will continue to overshadow spending on energy andutilities, the value of the power plants and transmission grids sub-sector will increase, with real growthaveraging 5.0% annually between 2015 and 2019 Vietnam's power consumption is expected to rise sharply,

in light of positive economic and demographic growth The government will, therefore, need to step up thecountry's power generation to meet growing demand and avoid the real risk of persistent electricity

shortages, which could in turn deter foreign manufacturers from using the country as an export base andforce them to direct investment elsewhere

The government has since announced ambitious plans for the sector Under the government's SeventhPower Development Plan, a target of developing 75,000MW of power generation capacity by 2020 has beenset, with coal-based plants accounting for 48% of this investment This plan is expected to require aninvestment capital of USD48.8bn.

Vietnam does not have the fiscal strength to finance this ambitious plan, and as such, we believe thatinterest from foreign investors is vital for it to succeed That said, the current structure of the marketsuggests that this is unlikely to happen, with limited private investment, due to the bureaucratic obstacles

and rigidity of the internal market Electricity Vietnam (EVN) enjoys a monopoly over distribution in

Vietnam's electricity market A unified tariff is applicable across the country, and artificially low, cappedprices have long made it unprofitable for foreign infrastructure companies to invest in the power sector,mainly because most of the equipment for power stations has to be purchased from other countries at globalmarket prices They have also been deterred by an onerous negotiating process for pricing and distributioncontracts

Addressing those two issues is clearly within the government's reach and could boost activity in the market,helping to mitigate some of the risks to future growth inherent in the over-reliance on EVN's investmentprogramme In early 2006, the country's Prime Minister approved EVN's master plan for the development

of a three-step competitive power market by 2022 This will be restricted to power generation up to 2014,expanding to the wholesale market between 2015 and 2022, followed by the retail sector

Bottom-Up Restructuring

Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap

Source: Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam

Vietnam officially launched its competitive generation market (CGM) on July 1 2012, marking the firstphase of its power market development roadmap The roadmap spans 10 years, including the introduction of

an electricity wholesale market in 2014 and an electricity retail market by 2023 Under the CGM,

independent power producers (IPPs) would forward their asking prices to the Electric Power Trading

Company (EPTC) These EPTCs would purchase the electricity via a competitive cost-based pool and sell

it to distribution companies and large consumers at regulated prices

To liberalise the power sector further, Vietnam's Minister of Industry and Trade, Vu Huy Hoang, granted

approval to establish three power generation companies in June 2012: Genco 1, Genco 2 and Genco 3.

These companies are to take over power generating plants directly under EVN Genco 1 will manage

hydropower plants, such as Dai Ninh, Ban Ve and Song Tranh Meanwhile, Uong Bi Thermal Power in

Northern Quang Ninh Province will serve as a backbone for Genco 1, which will also acquire EVN's shares

in the Quang Ninh thermal power plant and some other thermal project management boards throughout the

country Genco 2, which is the upgrade of Can Tho Thermal Power, will manage the Quang Tri and An

Khe KaNak hydropower plants and the Thu Duc, Hai Phong and Pha Lai thermal power plants The

establishment of Genco 3 is based on Phu My Thermal Power and 11 affiliates, including the Vinh Tan

thermal power plant and the Buon Kuop hydropower plant These three companies will remain under EVN,which will also appoint their personnel

Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) announced in January 2015 it would accelerate the development of anumber of power projects in Southern Vietnam to shore up power supply during the region's dry season,when generation from hydropower generally declines These projects include the Duyen Hai 1 thermalpower plant, the second generator of the O Mon 1 thermal power plant, as well as the Dong Nai 5

hydropower plant

Vietnam is also making progress on the renewable front In December 2014, Danish wind turbine

manufacturer Vestas Wind Systems and Vietnam's Phu Cuong Group (PCG) signed a memorandum of

understanding (MOU) to build a 170MW wind farm in Vietnam The wind farm will be built in the MekongDelta province of Sóc Trăng Further details pertaining to the park have not yet been provided

EVN Maintaining Dominance

Vietnam - Installed Capacity Mix By Ownership (2012)

Source: EVN

Coal: Growing Foreign Participation

The first ever public-private partnership (PPP) in Vietnam's power generation sector gained momentum in

May 2009 Malaysia's JAKS Resources reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with

the Vietnamese government for the construction and operation of the Hai Duong thermal power station.This is a significant milestone for Vietnam as it indicates that opportunities to fill the investment gap left bystate-owned EVN are proliferating for IPPs

Since then, foreign involvement in the sector has significantly accelerated, with the largest project a

UD10.6bn deal signed between Russian and Vietnamese authorities to construct Vietnam's first 2,000MWnuclear power plant in the Ninh Thuan province

The coal generation sector has also been receiving significant attention from foreign investors The MongDuong 2 plant in particular is representative of this growing liberalisation in the Vietnamese utilities sector,

as it is one of Vietnam's first foreign-backed build-operate-transfer (BOT) coal-fired plants Aside from