Sustainable transport will it ever really count

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Transportation• a critical component of a broader economic system which supports business and social development; • an open system, which require

Will it Ever Really Count?

Prof Greg Marsden

Institute for Transport Studies

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Transportation

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Transportation

National Economic System Global Market

Urban System

Telecommunications

System

Energy/Power System

Water and Sewage System

System Users/

Stakeholders

Transportation Modes

Intermodal Connections

Transit Network Highway Network Non-motorized

Network Airway Network

Source: Adapted from Meyer and Miller ( 2001, p 91 ).

Collectors Local Arterials

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Transportation

Recycled Materials

ECOSYSTEM

Other … Energy Transportation Communication Industrial

Source: Adapted from Daly (1991)

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Transportation

“ There can be no sustainable development

without sustainable transportation. It is an

essential component not only because transportation is a prerequisite to development in general but also because transportation, especially our use of motorized vehicles, contributes substantially to a wide range of

environmental problems, including energy waste, global warming, degradation of air and water, noise, ecosystem loss and fragmentation, and desecration of the

landscape Our nation’s environmental quality will be

sustainable only if we pursue transportation in a

sustainable way” (Benfield and Replogle 2002, p 647).

Example Impacts

• Costs of transport to

customers/consumers

•Time loss in traffic/ Congestion

• Costs relating to accidents

• Release of toxic/hazardous substances

• Solid waste

• Disruption of ecosystems and habitats

• Hydrologic impacts

• Introduction of exotic species

• Depletion of the ozone layer

• Global climate change

• Mobility

• Accessibility

• Accidents

• Obesity

• Barriers for the disadvantaged

•Inequalities associated with impacts

Sustainable Development and Sustainable Transportation

• a critical component of a broader economic system which

supports business and social development;

• an open system, which requires natural and man-made inputs and produces outputs which impact on the environment;

• part of a social system that shapes and is shaped by that social system, including other policy areas;

• comprised of a series of physical sub-systems with a range of physical and operational components and which are organized through formal and informal conventions; and

• fragmented series of partly connected yet partly competing sub-systems with complex and varying governance

arrangements.

Sustainable Transportation

Where to make it count?

POLICY LEVEL

ORGANIZATIONAL

LEVEL

PROJECT LEVEL

Source: Gudmundsson and Cornet

European Transport White Paper

Policy Level

• Overarching Aim

to build a competitive transport system that will increase mobility, remove major barriers in key areas and fuel growth and employment At the same time, the

proposals will dramatically reduce Europe's dependence on imported oil and cut

carbon emissions in transport by 60% by 2050

Remembering Context

Economic Impacts Assessed

Impact Areas Indicators

Economic Impacts

Transport Activity Passenger kilometers and tonne kilometers by all modes.

Modal Shift Share of passenger or tonne kilometers by mode.

Transport costs to users Unit cost per passenger or tonne transported (including capital costs, fixed operation

costs and variable fuel and non-fuel costs).

Economic growth Qualitative inference of policy impacts on GDP only.

Efficiency of the transport

system

Not defined but incorporates notions of smart pricing, efficient networks, fuel efficiency and vehicle purchase costs.

Congestion Average speed and use of available road capacity.

Household costs The share of passenger transport costs within the household income of the average EU

household.

Transport related sectors Not defined but qualitative inference of the potential of the strategies to support the

European vehicle manufacturing industry.

Innovation and research Not defined but qualitative inference about the impact of the strategy on research spend

on green innovation.

Reduction of administrative

burden

Not defined but qualitative inference about overall levels of administration.

EU budget Not defined as will be assessed on a case by case basis.

International relations Not defined but qualitative inference about the potential synergies and conflicts with

international organizations.

Social Impacts Assessed

Social Impacts

Degree of mobility Refers to the % change in total transport activity for passengers with an

overall reduction being negative.

choice.

Accessibility Potential accessibility is a generalized cost based measure Larger areas are

more attractive and cost, time and distance are negative separation factors

Distributional Impacts Not clearly defined although the analysis refers in part to the distribution of

household costs by income band.

Employment level and

Environmental Impacts Assessed

Impact Areas Indicators

Environmental Impacts

Climate Change Total CO2 emissions from transport Both transport and well to wheel analyses are

presented.

Air pollution Emissions of NOx and PM10and external costs of these pollutants.

Noise pollution External costs of noise pollution.

Energy use/energy

efficiency

Total energy demand from transport Millions of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (reviewed in detail below) Energy intensity is an efficiency indicator that uses total energy demand and transport activity to create a ratio for passenger and freight.

Renewable energy

use

Total energy demand split by fossil fuels, biofuels and electricity.

Biodiversity Not defined but qualitatively refers to fragmentation, land-take, loss of biodiversity and

damage to eco-system services.

European Transport White Paper

-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200

CO2 intensity Energy intensity Activity level Total

Urban Interurban Intercontinental

Review of Do-Minimum Case

Factors Influencing CO2 emissions

European Transport White Paper

Policy Option 2 Policy Option 3 Policy Option 4 Economic Impacts

Reduction of administrative burden + = +

European Transport White Paper

• Largest Scale attempt for Sustainable

Transport Assessment

• Significant improvement in transparency

• Informs policy package choice (coherence with longer-term goals)

• Positive role as a signal

European Transport White Paper

• Modelling systems not robust

• Indicators are so aggregate as to lose meaning

• Social context is flattened

• Does not really reach out beyond transport

• Implementation is largely national

– Is this joined up?

• Only limited signs that constraints are to play a part

• “Curbing Mobility is not an option”

– Weak sustainability

High Speed Rail

• Decision taken in same way

as other infrastructure

projects

• Bespoke Sustainability

Appraisal also commissioned

Phase 1 Phase 2 Rolling Stock Total Target Cost 17.16 n/a

Towards documents about sustainable

transportation (2007, 2008)

Indicators

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

CO2 emissions by end user (industry, transport, domestic, other)

Aviation and shipping emissions

Private Vehicles: CO2 emissions, car-km, and final household expenditure

Road Freight: CO2 emissions, tonne-km, tonnes, and GDP

Road Transport Emissions NOx, PM10, CO2 emissions, and GDP

Emissions of air pollutants

Air Quality and Health

Ecological impacts of air pollution

Mobility

Getting to school

Accessibility

• 2 years previously, the Rail White Paper had said:

• “Higher speed is not the only or best way of cutting journey times Nor is it without cost Increasing the maximum speed of a train

from 200 km/h to 350 km/h means a 90 per cent increase in energy consumption In exchange, it cuts station-to-station journey time by less than 25 per cent and door-to-door journey-time by even less … The argument that high-speed rail travel is a ‘green option’ does not stand up to close inspection on the basis of the present electricity generation mix.” (DfT, 2007b, p 62).

• Land use and development objectives and the support

of new housing development; and

• Developing the line to be capable of handling freight for greater network resilience.

• Modal shift from air to rail was “not expected to be a key objective for HS2” (Rowlands, 2009).

Sustainability Appraisal

Source: Geisler et al (2011)

Sustainability Appraisal

Key Sustainability Issue Objective

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change

Climatic factors and

adaptability

weather events

Greenhouse Gases  Contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by

facilitating modal shift from road and air to rail

gas emissions by promoting energy efficient technologies

Natural and cultural resource protection and environmental enhancement

Landscape and townscape  Maintain and enhance existing landscape character

• 18 sustainability issues

• 33 objectives as shown in Table

• 33 objectives => 66 evaluation criteria

Sift 1 90+ long list options

Review of Operations, Cost

Decision Point 1

Sift 2 50+ intermediate list options

Appraisal including simplifiedAppraisal of Sustainability HS2 Board

Decision Point 2

Sift 3 Shortlist of stations and whole routes

Appraisal including fullAppraisal of Sustainability HS2 Board

Decision Point 3

Finalising preferred scheme and main alternatives

Likely Impact of Proposed HS2

Likely change between the current baseline and future baseline

Cumulative Impacts

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change

resilience of the rail network + 0 + greenhouse gas emissions +/- + +

Natural and cultural resource protection and environmental enhancement

landscape character - townscape character 0 0 0 archeological assets - 0 - historic buildings - - - historic landscapes - - -

surface water resources - 0 - groundwater resources - - - capacity of flood plains - -

Creating sustainable communities

local air quality U + + local noise environment - local vibration environment - 0 0 community integrity 0 - 0 pedestrian access 0 + + access to public transport + + ++ public transport interchange + + ++ mental well-being 0 0 0 physical health 0 + + health inequalities 0 0 0 road traffic accidents 0 0 0 crime and fear of crime 0 0 0 economic competitiveness ++ U ++ wider economic growth and

Reflections on HS2 Case

• Comprehensive coverage of indicators

• Influential in changing route and route design

• Transparency in categories that win and lose

• No clear policy framework

• No sense of fit to broader sustainability goals

• Not commissioned to ask if it was worth doing

Conclusions – It is counting

• Significant increase in evidence base

• Greater transparency in decision-making

Conclusions – But not enough

• As yet no consistent policy position on green growth

• No evidence of limits being a strong influence on