RISK PERCEPTIONLen Ritter Maged Younes WHO PROCESS OF RISK PERCEPTION aIntuitive judgement process aExperience with hazards come from news media.. Associated with mishaps and global thr
Trang 1RISK PERCEPTION
Len Ritter
Maged Younes (WHO)
PROCESS OF RISK PERCEPTION
aIntuitive judgement process aExperience with hazards come from
news media Associated with mishaps and global threats
aCognitive frame: concept of
chemicals as pollutants and poisons
aOutrage factor
COMPARING RISKS
aIf the risk of dying from being struck by
lightening is 1, relative risk values for
certain factors would be:
a Death in air traffic 2
a Death in air traffic 2
a Home accidents 182
a Traffic accidents 286
a Pulmonary cancer 870
a All cancers 5263
RISKS THAT INCREASE PROBABILITY
OF DEATH BY ONE IN A MILLION
a Smoking 1.4 cigarettes (Cancer/heart disease)
a Travelling 10 miles by bicycle (Accident)
a Travelling 300 mile by car (Accident)
a Flying 1000 miles by jet (Accident)
a One chest X-ray (Cancer from radiation)
a Living 150 years within 20 miles of a nuclear
power plant (Cancer from radiation)
a Risk of accident by living within 5 miles of a
nuclear reactor for 50 years (Cancer from radiation)
Trang 2Mosaic of public perceptions of risks in terms of risk assessment quadrants
UNDERESTIMATED RISKS aSmoking
aAlcohol consumption aRisky sporting activities aMotorcar traffic
aInfectious diseases aHeart diseases due to overweight
and lack of physical activity
OVERESTIMATED RISKS
aAir traffic
aRadioactivity
aHazardous waste
aChemicals in food
aSnakebites
aLightning strike
FACTORS INFLUENCING RISK PERCEPTION
aLikelihood of adverse outcomes aFamiliarity, dread and spread of
hazard
aWho is affected? Individual risk aVoluntary or accepted risk?
aBenefits from accepting risk
Trang 3FACTORS CAUSING
OUTRAGE
aPotentially uncontrollable risks
aAbility to cause catastrophe on a
aAbility to cause catastrophe on a
global scale
aRisk to future generations
aDreaded outcomes
FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTION
FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR
FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN _
Catastrophic Effects grouped in Effects grouped in potential time & space time & space Familiarity Unfamiliar Familiar Understanding Mechanisms/pro- Mechanisms/process
cess not understood understood Pers Controllability Uncontrollable Controllable
FACTORS AFFECTING RISK
PERCEPTION (
PERCEPTION (22))
FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR
FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN _
Voluntariness Involuntary Voluntary
Effects on children Special risk no special risk
Effect manifestation Delayed effects Immediate effects
Future generations Risk No risk
FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTION (
PERCEPTION (33)) FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR
FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN _
Dread Effects dreaded Effects not dreaded Institutions Lack of trust Institutions trusted Media attention High Low
Accident history Accidents No accidents
Trang 4FACTORS AFFECTING RISK
PERCEPTION (
PERCEPTION (44))
FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR
FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN _
Benefits Unclear benefits Clear benefits
Reversibility Effects irreversible Effects reversible
Origin Caused by human Caused by acts of
action/failure nature
RISK TOLERANCE SUMMARY OF FACTORS FACTOR/CHARACTERISTIC DIRECTION OF INFLUENCE _
1 Personal control Increases risk tolerance
2 Institutional control Depends on confidence in
institutional performance
3 Voluntariness Increases risk tolerance
4 Familiarity Increases risk tolerance
5 Dread Decreases risk tolerance
6 Inequitable distribution of Depends on individual risks and benefits utility, strong social
incentive for rejecting risks
7 Artificiality of source Amplifies attention to risk, often
decreases tolerance
8 Blame Quest for sociopolitical response
CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK
a Knowledge : Society’s awareness of risk from
activity (food additives: little; alcohol: much)
a Newness : Extent of societal experience (guns:
old; biotechnology: new) ; gy )
a Voluntariness : Extent of individual’s choice
about exposure (crime: involuntary; rock
climbing: voluntary)
a Control : Extent of ability of individual to control
exposure, protect himself, or control
consequences (uncontrollable risks: natural
disasters)
CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK ((22))
a Dreadness : Level of fear of risk or consequence (smoking: people do not dread; dioxins: people have great dread)
a Catastrophic potential : Chance of widespread disastrous outcome (vaccination: not likely;
nerve gas: likely)
a Equity : Equal sharing of risks and benefits (hazardous waste dumps: distributed unequally;
water chlorination: distributed equally)
Trang 5INTUITIVE BIASES OF RISK
PERCEPTION
a Availability : Events that come to mind
immediately are rated as more probable
than those less mentally available
a A h i ff t P b biliti
a Anchoring effects : Probabilities are
adjusted to availability or perceived
significance of information
a Representativeness : Singular/anecdotal
events regarded as more typical than
information based on frequencies
ROLE OF MEDIA IN SHAPING RISK PERCEPTION
a Mechanisms of risk perception depend upon
information (personal experience or media)
a Messages undergo a transformation process;
they may reflect reality or not
a Characteristics:
`Media construct reality to suit readers’
understanding
`Media direct attention to events, not
developments
`Media have no mechanism to resolve conflicts
among experts
IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK
ASSESSMENT AND
MANAGEMENT
aStakeholder involvement in all stages of
risk assessment
aAddressing public concerns adequately
aConsider risk perception issues in risk
management/risk reduction decisions
aOpenness and transparency
aDesign adequate risk communication
strategies