Delphi research and INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

DELPHI RESEARCH AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION Dušan Drbohlav Zdeněk Čermák Dagmar Dzúrová Eva Janská Dita Čermáková Lenka Lachmanová RESEARCH PROJECT: International Migration and Migrants

DELPHI RESEARCH AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

Dušan Drbohlav Zdeněk Čermák Dagmar Dzúrová Eva Janská Dita Čermáková Lenka Lachmanová

RESEARCH PROJECT:

International Migration and Migrants´ Illegal/Irregular Economic Activities: The Czech Republic

in a Broader European Context

THE DELPHI METHOD

• Developed in the late 1940´s for military

purposes

• Method for structuring group

communication

• Based on questionnaires with controlled

opinion feedback submitted to experts in several rounds

• Anonymity

• Often used for future forecasts in industry,

THE DELPHI METHOD

• Conditions that support applying the

Delphi:

a) Complexity of the research problem b) Lacking adequate data

c) Creation of common future scenario

FORMS OF THE DELPHI METHOD

• Conventional Delphi

- Basic principles of the

Delphi + statistical

presentation of answers

- Used for predicting future

development based on

consensus among experts

• Policy Delphi

- Instrument to analyse policy problems

- Often used systematic rating of feasibility, desirability and

importance of policy or strategical measures

OWN EXPERIENCE: 1) THE 1993 DELPHI SURVEY ON EAST-WEST

EUROPEAN MIGRATION

• Research project for the Belgian Ministry of

Science

• Main aims – the probable future development of European East-West migration + testing

applicability of Delphi on international migration issues

• 70 experts from Eastern and Western Europe

• Predictions largely for the period 1993 – 1998

MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY

• Results

- Above all „push“

determinants of

movements

- Increasing role of

short-term, circulatory migration

- 57 % of experts predicted

increase in volumes

- Not massive inflows

• Reality

- Very important but also growing importance of

„pull“ factors

- As predicted

- Slow decrease in volumes

- As predicted

MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY

• Results

- Main target countries:

Germany, Austria, France,

Italy, Sweden, Finland

- Main source countries:

Yugoslavia, Albania,

Romania

- Low emigration from the

Czech Republic, Slovakia,

Hungary or Baltic states

• Reality

- Almost as predicted, except Great Britain

- As predicted, except Poland

- As predicted

MAIN RESULTS vis-à-vis REALITY

• Results

- Anxiety about potential

increase in antagonism

and hostility towards

immigrants in Western

Europe

- Growing restrictions and

harmonisation in

migration policy in

Western Europe

- Application of restrictive

• Reality

- Increase in preferences of anti-immigrant political parties (in Austria, the Netherlands or France)

- As predicted

OWN EXPERIENCE: 2) THE 2003 DELPHI SURVEY ON EAST-WEST

EUROPEAN MIGRATION

• Small-scale research (15 experts from Czechia)

• Conventional + Policy Delphi methods

• Two rounds of questionnaires

• Three time periods

• Future scenarios with some detailed information

• Migration policy objectives

• Only time will verify accuracy of the predictions

• Delphi survey is just a piece of mosaic of methods

as to how to predict the future migration

development – anyways, found useful

• Must to stick to „Delphi methodical rules“