WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Rebalancing Growth phần 10 pdf

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SELECTED TOPICS World Economic Outlook Archives World Economic Outlook: Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability May 2001 World Economic Outlook: Th e Information

CURRENT ACCOUNT: ADVANCED ECONOMICS

Table A11 Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account

174 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

Table A12 Emerging and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account

CURRENT ACCOUNT: EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

Table A12 (continued)

176 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

Table A12 (continued)

CURRENT ACCOUNT: EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

Table A12 (concluded)

1Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure

2The Zimbabwe dollar ceased circulating in early 2009 Data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in U.S dollars IMF staff estimates of U.S dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates

178 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

Table A13 Emerging and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows1

(Billions of U.S dollars)

Emerging and Developing Economies

Memorandum

Central and Eastern Europe

Commonwealth of Independent

States 5

Developing Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Western Hemisphere

Memorandum

Fuel Exporting Countries

Other Countries

1Net financial flows comprise net direct investment, net portfolio investment, and other net official and private financial flows, and changes in reserves

2Excludes grants and includes transactions in external assets and liabilities of official agencies

3A minus sign indicates an increase

4The sum of the current account balance, net private financial flows, net official flows, and the change in reserves equals, with the opposite sign, the sum of the capital account and errors and omissions

5Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure

EXTERNAL FINANCING BY REGIONAL GROUPS

Table A14 Emerging and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows1

(Billions of U.S dollars)

Emerging and Developing Economies

Central and Eastern Europe

Middle East and North Africa

180 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

Table A15 Emerging and Developing Economies: Reserves1

Projections

Billions of U.S Dollars

Emerging and Developing Economies 1,032.7 1,363.7 1,815.3 2,310.6 3,080.8 4,377.3 4,961.4 5,500.2 6,132.5 6,740.7 Regional Groups

By External Financing Source

Net Debtor Countries by Debt-Servicing

EXTERNAL FINANCING: RESERVES

Table A15 (continued)

Projections

Ratio of Reserves to Imports of Goods and Services 3

Emerging and Developing Economies 54.3 60.4 63.1 67.0 75.3 86.7 80.3 108.8 102.4 100.9 Regional Groups

By External Financing Source

Net Debtor Countries by Debt-Servicing

Experience

Countries with Arrears and/or Rescheduling

Other Groups

1In this table, official holdings of gold are valued at SDR 35 an ounce This convention results in a marked underestimation of reserves for countries that have substantial gold holdings

2Georgia and Mongolia, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarities in economic structure

3Reserves at year-end in percent of imports of goods and services for the year indicated

Table A16 Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings

FLOW OF FUNDS: SUMMARY

Table A16 (continued)

184 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

Table A16 (continued)

Table A16 (concluded)

By External Financing Source

Net Debtor Countries

Note: The estimates in this table are based on individual countries’ national accounts and balance of payments statistics Country group composites are calculated as the sum of the U.S dollar values for the

relevant individual countries This differs from the calculations in the April 2005 and earlier issues of the World Economic Outlook , where the composites were weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities

FLOW OF FUNDS: SUMMARY

186 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

Table A17 Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

World Prices in U.S Dollars

Interest Rates (in percent)

Balances on Current Account

Total External Debt

Debt Service

1Data refer to trade in goods and services

2London interbank offered rate on U.S dollar deposits minus percent change in U.S GDP deflator

3GDP-weighted average of 10-year (or nearest maturity) government bond rates for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States

Annual Percent Change unless Noted Otherwise

Percent of GDP

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

SELECTED TOPICS

World Economic Outlook Archives

World Economic Outlook: Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability May 2001

World Economic Outlook: Th e Information Technology Revolution October 2001

World Economic Outlook: Th e Global Economy After September 11 December 2001

World Economic Outlook: Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy April 2007

World Economic Outlook: Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries October 2008

I Methodology—Aggregation, Modeling, and Forecasting

188 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

II Historical Surveys

Institutional Development: Th e Infl uence of History and Geography April 2003, Box 3.1

III Economic Growth—Sources and Patterns

Have External Anchors Accelerated Institutional Reform in Practice? April 2003, Box 3.2

How Can Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

Recent Changes in Monetary and Financial Conditions in the Major

Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries April 2005, Chapter 2How Does Macroeconomic Instability Stifl e Sub-Saharan African Growth? April 2005, Box 1.5 How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use Th eir

Return on Investment in Industrial and Developing Countries September 2005, Box 2.2

Examining the Impact of Unrequited Transfers on Institutions September 2005, Box 3.3

Th e Impact of Recent Housing Market Adjustments in Industrial Countries April 2006, Box 1.2

Th e Evolution and Impact of Corporate Governance Quality in Asia September 2006, Box 3.2Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy April 2007, Chapter 4Spillovers and International Business Cycle Synchronization:

SELECTED TOPICS

Improved Macroeconomic Performance—Good Luck or Good Policies? October 2007, Box 5.2

Is Credit a Vital Ingredient for Recovery? Evidence from Industry-Level Data April 2009, Box 3.2

What’s the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial Crises October 2009, Chapter 4

Unemployment Dynamics during Recessions and Recoveries: Okun’s Law and Beyond April 2010, Chapter 3

IV Infl ation and Defl ation, and Commodity Markets

Commodity Price Shocks, Growth, and Financing in Sub-Saharan Africa September 2006, Box 2.2

International Oil Companies and National Oil Companies in a Changing

190 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

Does Financial Investment Aff ect Commodity Price Behavior? October 2008, Box 3.1Fiscal Responses to Recent Commodity Price Increases: An Assessment October 2008, Box 3.2

Will Commodity Prices Rise Again when the Global Economy Recovers? April 2009, Box 1.5

What Do Options Markets Tell Us about Commodity Price Prospects? October 2009, Box 1.6

Commodity Futures Price Curves and Cyclical Market Adjustment April 2010, Box 1.3

V Fiscal Policy

Has Fiscal Behavior Changed under the European Economic and

How Should Middle Eastern and Central Asian Oil Exporters Use April 2005, Box 1.6

Th eir Oil Revenues?

Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic Policies April 2005, Box 3.3

Improved Emerging Market Fiscal Performance: Cyclical or Structural? September 2006, Box 2.1

Diff erences in the Extent of Automatic Stabilizers and Th eir Relationship

Why Is It So Hard to Determine the Eff ects of Fiscal Stimulus? October 2008, Box 5.2Have the U.S Tax Cuts been “TTT” [Timely, Temporary, and Targeted]? October 2008, Box 5.3

VI Monetary Policy, Financial Markets, and Flow of Funds

SELECTED TOPICS

How Do U.S Interest and Exchange Rates Aff ect Emerging Markets’

Does Financial Sector Development Help Economic Growth and Welfare? April 2004, Box 4.1

Adjustable- or Fixed-Rate Mortgages: What Infl uences a Country’s Choices? September 2004, Box 2.2

Financial Globalization and the Conduct of Macroeconomic Policies April 2005, Box 3.3

A Closer Look at Infl ation Targeting Alternatives: Money and

Th e Impact of Petrodollars on U.S and Emerging Market Bond Yields April 2006, Box 2.3

Globalization and Low Infl ation in a Historical Perspective April 2006, Box 3.2

Macroeconomic Conditions in Industrial Countries and Financial Flows to

Macroeconomic Implications of Recent Market Turmoil: Patterns from

Th e Changing Housing Cycle and the Implications for Monetary Policy April 2008, Chapter 3

192 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

VII Labor Markets, Poverty, and Inequality

Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: Why Reforms Pay Off April 2003, Chapter 4

Emigration and Trade: How Do Th ey Aff ect Developing Countries? April 2007, Box 5.1Labor Market Reforms in the Euro Area and the Wage-Unemployment

Th e Dualism between Temporary and Permanent Contracts: Measures,

VIII Exchange Rate Issues

Convergence and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in the EU

What Is Driving the Weakness of the Euro and the Strength of the Dollar? May 2001, Chapter 2

How Did the September 11 Attacks Aff ect Exchange Rate Expectations? December 2001, Box 2.4

How Concerned Should Developing Countries Be about G-3

Learning to Float: Th e Experience of Emerging Market Countries since

How Emerging Market Countries May Be Aff ected by External Shocks September 2006, Box 1.3

Exchange Rate Pass-Th rough to Trade Prices and External Adjustment April 2007, Box 3.3

Lessons from the Crisis: On the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime April 2010, Box 1.1

IX External Payments, Trade, Capital Movements, and Foreign Debt

Regional Trade Agreements and Integration: Th e Experience with NAFTA September 2004, Box 1.4

SELECTED TOPICS

Trade and Financial Integration in Europe: Five Years after the

What Progress Has Been Made in Implementing Policies to Reduce

Impact of Demographic Change on Saving, Investment, and Current

Appendix 1.2

How Much Progress Has Been Made in Addressing Global Imbalances? April 2006, Box 1.4

Capital Flows to Emerging Market Countries: A Long-Term Perspective September 2006, Box 1.1

Managing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Large and Volatile Aid Flows October 2007, Box 2.3

Multilateral Consultation on Global Imbalances: Progress Report April 2008, Box 1.3

How Does the Globalization of Trade and Finance Aff ect Growth?

Divergence of Current Account Balances across Emerging Economies October 2008, Chapter 6

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Implications for Global Financial Markets October 2008, Box 6.2

Trade Finance and Global Trade: New Evidence from Bank Surveys October 2009, Box 1.1

From Defi cit to Surplus: Recent Shifts in Global Current Accounts October 2009, Box 1.5

Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses April 2010, Chapter 4

194 International Monetary Fund | April 2010

What Explains Divergent External Sector Performance in the Euro Area? September 2005, Box 1.3

Developing Institutions to Refl ect Local Conditions: Th e Example of

Ownership Transformation in China versus Central and Eastern Europe September 2005, Box 3.1How Rapidly Are Oil Exporters Spending Th eir Revenue Gains? April 2006, Box 2.1

XI Country-Specifi c Analyses

How Important Are Banking Weaknesses in Explaining Germany’s Stagnation? April 2003, Box 1.3Are Corporate Financial Conditions Related to the Severity of Recessions

How Will the U.S Budget Defi cit Aff ect the Rest of the World? April 2004, Chapter 2

Quantifying the International Impact of China’s WTO Accession April 2004, Box 2.4Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: New Zealand’s Experience April 2004, Box 3.1

Th e Netherlands: How the Interaction of Labor Market Reforms and

Why Is the U.S International Income Account Still in the Black,

China’s GDP Revision: What Does It Mean for China and

What Do Country Studies of the Impact of Globalization on Inequality Tell Us?

XII Special Topics

Rising Car Ownership in Emerging Economies: Implications for Climate Change April 2008, Box 4.1

Macroeconomic Policies for Smoother Adjustment to Abrupt Climate Shocks April 2008, Box 4.3

SELECTED TOPICS

Catastrophe Insurance and Bonds: New Instruments to Hedge Extreme

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