Climate Management - Solving the Problem Part 2 docx

resPonse and inTernaTionaL reaCTions While the bulk of the world’s countries agreed to Kyoto, the United States took a different stance, choosing to approach the issue on its own terms..

an exchange set up expressly for that—a global carbon market As a business venture, the Protocol allows groups of Annex I countries to join together to create a market within a market Several exist today, such as

in the European Union (EU), which created the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) The EU ETS uses EAUs (EU allowance units), which are each equivalent to a Kyoto assigned amount unit (AAU) The United Kingdom uses the UK ETS

The sources of Kyoto credits are what are called the clean ment mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation (JI) projects The CDM allows the creation of new carbon credits by developing emis-sion reduction projects in non–Annex I countries Under the Protocol, countries’ actual emissions have to be monitored and precise records have to be kept of the trades carried out Registry systems trace and record transactions by countries under the mechanisms The UN Cli-mate Change Secretariat, based in Bonn, Germany, keeps an interna-tional transaction log to verify that transactions are consistent with the rules of the Protocol The enforcement branch was created and given the responsibility to ensure compliance If it is determined that an Annex

develop-I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then the country is required to make up the difference plus an additional 30 per-cent In addition, that country is then suspended from making transfers under an emissions trading program

Since the Protocol’s inception, it has become apparent that in order

to meet the original objective of stabilizing GHG emissions to trol global warming, even larger emission reductions will need to be achieved than those originally required by Kyoto

con-The table on page 14 illustrates the changes in GHG emissions of some prominent countries

When the United Nations met at their annual climate conference in December 2005 in Montreal, participating nations began negotiations for a second set of targets for the period beginning in 2013 (once the original period ended in 2012) Currently, 2009 is a crucial year in the international arena of finding a workable solution to climate change In

2007, the parties agreed to create an ambitious and effective tional response to climate change to be agreed on at the climate confer-ence in Copenhagen in December 2009

interna- Climate management

The u.s resPonse and inTernaTionaL reaCTions

While the bulk of the world’s countries agreed to Kyoto, the United States took a different stance, choosing to approach the issue on its own terms

u.s response

The former vice president Al Gore was a main participant in putting the Kyoto Protocol together in 1997 President Bill Clinton signed the agreement on November 12, 1997, but the U.S Senate refused to ratify

greenhouse gas emissions

Emis-CO 2 emissions in the United States fell 3.12 percent in 2008, and, for the first time, were surpassed by those from China There was a small absolute decline in the European Union as a whole, with declines also reported in Australia and Japan Emissions in the Eastern European/CIS region increased 1.72 percent in 2008 Emissions from the large developing nations of Brazil, China, and India grew 6.9 percent, 6.6 percent, and 7.2 percent, respectively—together these nations ac- counted for 27.6 percent of the world total in 2008.

it, citing potential damage to the U.S economy if the nation were forced

to comply The Senate also objected because Kyoto excluded certain developing countries, including China and India, from having to com-ply with new emission standards

On March 29, 2001, the Bush administration withdrew the United States from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change From a state-ment released by the U.S Embassy in Vienna, Austria, it said that although the U.S government was committed to developing an effec-tive way to address the problem of global warming, it believed that the Kyoto Protocol was “fundamentally flawed,” and therefore “is not the best approach to achieve a real environmental solution.” The adminis-tration stated that, “The Kyoto Protocol does not provide the long-term solution the world seeks to the problem of global warming The goals

of the Kyoto Protocol were established not by science, but by cal negotiation, and are therefore arbitrary and ineffective in nature In addition, many countries of the world are completely exempted from the Protocol, such as China and India, who are two of the top five emit-ters of greenhouse gases in the world Further, the Protocol could have potentially significant repercussions for the global economy.”

politi-President Bush commented on the treaty: “This is a challenge that requires a 100 percent effort; ours, and the rest of the world’s The world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases is the People’s Republic

of China Yet, China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol India and Germany are among the top emitters Yet, India was also exempt from Kyoto America’s unwillingness to embrace a flawed treaty should not be read by our friends and allies

as any abdication of responsibility To the contrary, my administration

is committed to a leadership role on the issue of climate change Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal of stabiliz-ing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.” (Note that as of

2009 China has become the largest GHG emitter in the world.)

Therefore, 10 days after taking office, Bush established a level working group to find a more practical method to work with global climate change The result of the working group was an energy policy that reflected the seriousness of the future of U.S environmental policy Bush announced the Clear Skies and Global Climate Change Initiatives

Ensuring continuing economic growth It is in no country’s

best interest to sacrifice economic growth With market-based incentive structures to spur innovation, it will be possible to move forward in the field of environmental conservation Provisions under the Kyoto Protocol would rely on inflex-ible regulatory structures that would distort investment and waste billions of dollars on pollution permits, accomplishing

no real change for the environment

Finding global solutions Addressing this issue must be as

comprehensive as possible All nations including developing countries, must be involved

Using the most modern technology The United States is

com-mitted to investing heavily in research and development and encouraging private companies to do the same through market-based incentives Since 1990, the United States has spent more than all of the countries of the European Union on research in new energy and environmentally friendly technology

Focusing on bilateral relations to provide assistance The

United States has already worked with more than 56 tries on their energy and environmental policies

coun-According to Bush, “The United States fully acknowledges the problem

of global warming, and is committed to pursuing a practical and tainable plan to address this grave situation The United States hopes to

find a workable solution to this serious problem that affects all of us in the global community.”

international reactions

The international reaction to Bush’s response to global warming was heated Although there was faint support from some sectors that the administration finally acknowledged global warming as a problem worthy of attention and committed U.S involvement toward finding

a feasible solution, most reactions were negative Accusing the istration of trying to create a new ad hoc process—separate from the official framework established by the United Nations—critics stated that the U.S response would do nothing more than distract from the progress the rest of the world was trying to make toward stabilizing climate change If anything, they felt it would actually hamper any prog-ress being made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming Great Britain and Germany especially criticized the United States, stating that all international climate agreements should logically stay within the jurisdiction of the United Nations

admin-German chancellor Angela Merkel said, “For me, that is tiable In a process led by the United Nations, we must create a succes-sor to the Kyoto agreement, which ends in 2012 But it is important that they flow from the United Nations.”

nonnego-Hilary Benn, Britain’s international development secretary remarked, “I think it is very important that we stick with the frame-work we’ve got In the end, we have to have one framework for reaching agreement I think that is very clear.”

Leaders from environmental groups also had strong opinions Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust, said, “This

is a transparent effort to divert attention from the president’s refusal to accept any emissions reductions proposals at next week’s G8 summit.”David Doniger, the climate policy director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, commented, “There is no more time for longwinded talks about unenforceable long-term goals We need to get a serious commitment to cut emissions now and in the G8.”

The Bush administration offered an alternative environmental plan on June 11, 2001, promising increased environmental research

 Climate management

and commitment from the United States Bush announced that he was

“committing the United States of America to work within the United Nations framework and elsewhere to develop an effective science-based response to the issue of global warming.”

Bush also stated that, “The rest of the world emits 80 percent of all greenhouse gases, and many of those emissions come from develop-ing countries The world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gas is China, yet China was entirely exempted from the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol.”

Bush committed his administration to fully fund high-priority areas for scientific research into climate change over the next five years and help developing nations to match the U.S commitment According

to CNN News, former president Clinton signed the Kyoto Protocol but also said he would not send it to the Senate for ratification until several changes were made

One country that did not seem to be up in arms over the U.S stand was Australia The Australian prime minister John Howard supported Bush’s plan According to Howard, “We are a net exporter of energy, and unless you have the developing countries involved we would be hurt Our position is much closer to that of the United States than the attitude of the European countries I do think what the president indicates in his speech will lead to an alternative to simply saying “no”

to the Kyoto Protocol, and I welcome that.”

Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen, the EU spokeswoman, remarked, “It is positive that the U.S administration is realizing that there needs to be something done about climate change but we feel that the multilateral approach is the best way to face up to this tremendous challenge.”Many environmental groups opposed Bush’s voluntary plan, how-ever, saying that it ultimately would do nothing to curb U.S emis-

sions According to a December 4, 2003, New York Times report, “The

1997 Protocol had many flaws, but it represented the only tional response to the global warming problem thus far devised, and

interna-at the very least it provides a plausible framework for collective national action.”

inter-The international community was not alone in disagreeing with the Bush administration’s stand Several U.S cities rose to the occasion

and dozens of mayors—representing more than 25 million cans—pledged that their cities would cut greenhouse gases by 7 per-cent by 2010.

Ameri-Greg Nickles, Seattle’s mayor who spearheaded the event, says,

“This campaign has clearly touched a nerve with the American people The climate affects Democrats and Republicans alike Here in Seattle,

we rely on the snow for our drinking water and hydroelectricity but it

hybrid cars, investing in renewable energy, improving public

transporta-tion, planting trees, promoting carpooling, and providing cycling lanes

The g8

The G8, or Group of Eight, is a forum that was created by France in 1975 for the governments of eight nations of the Northern Hemisphere The participating members are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Rus-sia, the United Kingdom, and the United States The European Union (EU) is also represented but it cannot host or chair The table on page

20 lists the current members

Each year the G8 holds a conference in the country of whoever

is currently serving as president The number of participating tries have evolved over the years since 1975, and just recently it has been proposed that the group be expanded to include five developing countries, referred to as the Outreach Five (O5), which include Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa These countries have attended

coun-as guests in the pcoun-ast It hcoun-as been proposed that the name be changed to the G8+5

The G8 is an informal forum that began in 1973 after the oil crisis and global recession that followed it The object of the gathering is to discuss issues of mutual or global concern, such as energy, the environ-ment, terrorism, economics, health, trade, etc At the Heiligendamm

is put into place to help existing efforts until a new framework under the UNFCCC is implemented after 2012, when Kyoto expires.

The inTergovernmenTaL PaneL

on CLimaTe Change

In order to make meaningful management decisions to minimize the negative impacts of climate change, it is necessary to have an orga-nized body of professionals working together toward the common goal of understanding the science of climate change This way they

the g8 leaders

Canada Prime Minister Stephen harper

Italy Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi

United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown

United States President Barack Obama

Dr Rajendra Pachauri has been the chair

of the IPCC since 2002 He is an

environ-mentalist and also the director general

of the Energy and Resources Institute

in New Delhi, involved in sustainable

development On December 10, 2007,

Dr Pachauri accepted the Nobel Peace

Prize on behalf of the IPCC, along with

corecipient Al Gore (IISD/Earth

Negotia-tions Bulletin)

can advise political leaders who can then develop regulations that enforce positive human response to that change The IPCC is a scien-tific organization established by UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 The IPCC is comprised of the world’s top scientists in all relevant fields who review and analyze scientific studies of climate change and provide authoritative assessments of the state of knowledge regarding global warming The IPCC was estab-lished to provide decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information The IPCC itself does not conduct any research Its key role is “to assess on a comprehen-sive, objective, open, and transparent basis the latest scientific, tech-nical, and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and miti-gation.” The reports they produce are of a high scientific and technical standard, meant to reflect a range of views and expertise and encom-pass a wide geographical area

The IPCC produces reports at regular intervals To date there have been four major assessments: 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007 The IPCC

is comprised of about 2,500 of the world’s top climate scientists and is

 Climate management

chaired by Dr Rajendra Pachauri of India Once the reports are released, they become standard works of reference that are widely used by poli-cymakers, experts, and others For example, in 1990, the findings of the first First Assessment Report (FAR) played a critical role in establishing the UNFCCC The Second Assessment Report (SAR), released in 1995, provided key input for the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 The Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001 was used in the develop-ment of the UNFCCC

Currently, the IPCC has three working groups and has undertaken the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (IPCC-NGGIP)

in collaboration with the OECD and the IEA Each working group has its own agenda and is assisted by a technical support unit and the working group or task force bureau Working Group I (WGI) is titled

The Physical Science Basis Working Group II (WGII) is called Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group III (WGIII) is called Mit- igation of Climate Change.

The main objective of the greenhouse gas inventories programme is

to develop and refine a methodology for the calculation and reporting

of national GHG emissions and removals In addition, there is a sion written into the agreement where further task groups and steering groups may be established for a duration of time to consider specific topics or concerns

provi-working group i

WGI assessed the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change Their latest report, published on February 2, 2007, was released in Paris This report covers information on changes in green-house gases and aerosols in the atmosphere and the role they play in determining the behavior of the climate The report provides specific details in the changes of air, land, and ocean temperatures, glaciers, rainfall, and ice sheets It takes into account enormous amounts of satellite-derived data for broad global coverage

In addition to the current status of the atmosphere, the report also focuses on the past and includes a paleoclimatic review of the Earth’s glacial and interglacial periods, the evidence left behind, and how the past can offer clues about the future This working group also looks at

The IPCC Working Group I speaking about their focus on the Fourth

Assessment Report, The Physical Science Basis, at the 10th session in

Paris, France, on January 29–February 1, 2007 (IISD/Earth Negotiations Bulletin)

how climate change interacts and affects geochemistry and the sphere Complex climate models are evaluated, and the driving fac-

bio-tors—or climate forcings—are analyzed so that projections can be made

as to what the future climate may be like both globally and locally

working group ii

WGII assessed the vulnerability of socioeconomic and natural systems

to climate change, the negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to climate change Their most recent

report was released on April 6, 2007, in Paris, and was entitled Impacts,

Adaptation and Vulnerability It provides a detailed analysis of how

global warming is affecting natural and human systems, what its future impacts will be, and to what extent adaptation and mitigation can reduce these impacts It analyzes how adaptation and mitigation work together and how societies can make the best use of resources they have

so that they can maintain a sustainable development.

 Climate management

This report looks at specific natural Earth systems, such as tems, water resources, coastal systems, oceans, and forests It also ana-lyzes human-controlled sectors, such as industry, agriculture, and health

ecosys-It examines these issues on a geographical basis, breaking the data into subregions such as North America, Latin America, polar regions, Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and small islands

working group iii

WGIII is responsible for assessing practical options for mitigating mate change through limiting and preventing greenhouse gas emis-sions They also focus on identifying methods that remove greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere Their fourth report was released

cli-The IPCC Working Group III focusing on their interest in the Fourth

Assessment Report, Mitigation of Climate Change at the ninth session

in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 30–May 4, 2007 (IISD/Earth Negotiations Bulletin)

May 4, 2007, in Bangkok The report analyzes the world’s GHG emission trends and analyzes various mitigation options for the main economic sectors from the present to 2030 It provides an in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of various mitigation approaches and also looks at short-term strategies and projects how effective they would be in the long term The report focuses on policy measures and instruments available to governments and industries to mitigate climate change and stresses the strong relationships between mitigation and sustainable development.

The Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) was established by the IPCC to oversee the National Greenhouse Gas Inven-tories Programme

IPCC RePoRts

The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), released in 2007, sents the work of more than 1,200 authors and 2,500 scientific expert reviewers from more than 130 countries The terminology the IPCC uses when they make projections is very specific When discussing their degree of confidence, the following terminology applies:

repre-Very high confidence At least a 9 out of 10 chanceHigh confidence About an 8 out of 10 chanceMedium confidence About a 5 out of 10 chance

In terms of likelihood of occurrence:

Extremely likely > 95 percentVery likely > 90 percent

Working Group I Report—The Physical Science Basis

This report contains the strongest language yet of any of the IPCC’s reports, and it found that it is very likely (> 90 percent probability) that

 Climate management

emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused

“most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.” The report concludes that it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is warming, “as is now evident from observations

of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”

The report also verifies that the current atmospheric tion of CO2 and methane “exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years.” Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, con-centrations of both gases have increased at a rate that is “very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10,000 years.”

concentra-The report also identified the following findings:

Eleven of the last 12 years were among the 12 hottest years

on record

Over the past 50 years, cold days, cold nights, and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent

The intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic has increased over the past 30 years, which correlates with increases in

tropical sea surface temperatures They are likely to become

more intense

Between 1900 and 2005, the Sahel, the Mediterranean, ern Africa, and parts of southern Asia have become drier, adding stress to water resources in these regions

south-Droughts have become longer and more intense and have affected larger areas since the 1970s, especially in the Tropics and subtropics

Since 1990, the Northern Hemisphere has lost 7 percent of the maximum area covered by seasonally frozen ground

Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined worldwide.Satellite data since 1978 show that the extent of Arctic sea ice during the summer has shrunk by more than 20 percent

Since 1961, the world’s oceans have been absorbing more than 80 percent of the heat added to the climate, caus-