Coastal Lagoons - Chapter 8 ppt

8.2 Identification of the Problem and Need for Sustainable Management8.3 Definition of Lagoon System and Characteristics Useful for theDecision Support System 8.4 Tools for Decision Maki

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Decision Making for Sustainable Use

and Development

Karen Terwilliger and John P Wolflin

CONTENTS

8.1 Introduction8.1.1 Purpose and Scope8.1.2 Common Questions and Answers about SustainableLagoon Management

8.1.3 Underlying Principles and Assumptions8.1.4 What Is Decision Making?

8.1.5 What Is Sustainable Management?

8.2 Identification of the Problem and Need for Sustainable Management8.3 Definition of Lagoon System and Characteristics Useful for theDecision Support System

8.4 Tools for Decision Making8.4.1 Modeling as a Decision-Making Tool8.4.2 Monitoring as a Decision-Making Tool8.4.3 Indicators as Decision-Making Tools8.4.4 Graphical User Interface as a Decision-Making Tool8.4.4.1 Types of User Interfaces

8.4.4.2 What Can a User Interface Do?

8.4.4.3 Design and Development of User Interfaces8.4.5 Economic Valuation as a Decision-Making Tool8.4.6 Environmental and Social Impact Assessment as aDecision-Making Tool

8.4.6.1 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)8.4.6.2 Social Impact Analysis (SIA)

8.4.7 Policy Transformation and Implementation8.4.8 Public Input as a Tool for Integration of the ILSMP8.5 The Process of Developing a Plan to Support Decision Makingfor an Integrated Lagoon Sustainable Management

8.6 Plan Development and Implementation through Infrastructure—The Integration Process

8

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8.7 Linking Infrastructure and Function8.8 The Importance of Evaluation in the Decision-Making Process8.9 Conclusion

AcknowledgementsReferences

8.1 INTRODUCTION 8.1.1 P URPOSE AND S COPE

The purpose of this chapter is to suggest a basic framework for making informeddecisions and taking positive actions regarding the sustainable management oflagoon systems utilizing the information and tools described in this book Previouschapters have presented the current status of available information on lagoonsystems and models to describe the processes and mechanisms of the interrela-tionships and energy flow within a lagoon system These data and models are usefulfor demonstrating the cause and effect relationship of changing input variables

to predict the alternative future outputs for a lagoon ecosystem They form thebasis of a decision support system (DSS) that should be customized and enhanced

on a continuing basis in order for sustainable management decisions to be tively integrated into the socio-economic system (SES) influencing the naturallagoon system

effec-It must be recognized that many decisions that affect each lagoon will be madetemporally (over a time scale) and spatially (across a wide geographic area anddiverse societal infrastructure units and levels) It is critically important to providethe best available knowledge and information in a coordinated way This will result

in decisions that foster the sustainable management of these threatened coastalsystems It is the task of the decision maker to make choices that affect the lagoonsystem using the best available information and tools These decisions inevitablycenter around finding the balance between the finite capacity of the lagoon systemand the many demands placed upon it by the socio-economic system that dependsupon it It is a further task to establish a process or plan according to which informeddecisions can be made over time about the future of the lagoon, with consistencyand coordination by the multitude of “users” of the lagoon system

In this chapter we suggest that a framework be established and used to guidethe multidisciplinary decisions of the SES and diverse human communities of thelagoon watershed—an integrated lagoon sustainable management plan (ILSMP).The many sectors/disciplines/community functions and structures that make deci-sions that impact the lagoon should then incorporate the goals and principles of theoverall lagoon plan into their respective arenas Continued integration of this plan-ning process with the best available knowledge and information into the many sectors

of the socio-economic infrastructure of the lagoon area will promote informeddecision making for sustainable management of the lagoon

This chapter presents a stepwise process as a guide for decision making withthe goal of sustainable management of a lagoon (Figure 8.1) It emphasizes theimportance of developing and employing a good decision support system (DSS)

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Such a DSS should include a wide range of ecological and socio-economic dataalong with the appropriate tools to collect, analyze, and evaluate this complex ofinformation (Figure 8.2) This chapter provides examples and lists of the basiccomponents of a DSS to assist in the decision-making process This processattempts to answer the basic questions that are commonly asked in the course oflagoon management

FIGURE 8.1 Lagoon management decision-making process.

Problem Definition—Identify Driving Forces Goal of Sustainable Management

(WHY)

Development of Action Plan/Process

(HOW)

Identify Information Needed

Function WHAT

Structure WHO

Process HOW

Identify Stakeholders, Establish Effective Infrastructure

Identify Mechanisms Needed

Customized Implementation for Each Stakeholder/Tool/Need

Integrates Ecological and Scientific Data into Cultural, Social, Economic, and Political Systems

Informed Decisions and Desired Outcomes, Improved Lagoon Quality, Informed and Involved Constituencies

Scientific Data and Tools, Including Model Indicators, Monitoring, Ecological and Socio-Economic Impact Assessments, etc.

Evaluation of Products and Process

Scientific Data and Tools, Including Model Indicators, Monitoring, Ecological and Socio-Economic Impact, Assessments, etc.

System Definition Watershed Components, Constituents, Interrelationships

(WHAT)

Scientific Data and Tools Including Model Indicators, Monitoring, Ecological and Socio-Economic Impact Assessments, etc.

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8.1.2 C OMMON Q UESTIONS AND A NSWERS ABOUT S USTAINABLE

• WHY—Why manage a lagoon for sustainability?

The “health” of the SES is dependent upon the “health” of the lagoonecosystem Sustainable management means to meet the needs of thepresent without compromising the ability of future generations to meettheir own needs.1 Only through sustainable management will a healthysocio-economic and ecological system be maintained

• WHAT—What lagoon system components and information do we need

to make a decision about sustainable management?

The best available socio-economic and ecological data are necessaryalong with a process for long-term integration of sustainable practicesinto the human infrastructure and footprint

FIGURE 8.2 Decision support system.

Model Simulation of Future System Conditions

Data and Knowledge Base

Environmental, Economic, Population, and Land Use

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• HOW—How do we begin and continue to manage a lagoon for sustainability?Establishing an integrated lagoon sustainable management plan is aprocess for long-term integration into the temporal and spatial diversity

of decisions made about the lagoon system

• WHO—Who should be involved in the process?

As many sectors/stakeholders as possible should be involved early onand continually throughout the process to maximize both short- and long-term successful implementation

• WHERE—What area should be managed?

The entire lagoon watershed and exchange area must be considered forsustainable management This requires interjurisdictional coordination

• WHEN—Over what time period is this necessary?

Sustainability infers a long-term intergenerational timeframe anddecision making will therefore need to be a continuing process that shouldemploy the most current and best available data and knowledge Regularevaluation intervals should be established to evaluate effectiveness of themanagement plan and its implementation for the benefit of this and futuregenerations

8.1.3 U NDERLYING P RINCIPLES AND A SSUMPTIONS

• Sustainable management is a conscious social decision that provides forthe long-term health of both the ecological and economic systems of thelagoon area The finite capacity of the lagoon’s natural capital (NC) cannotmeet the growing demands of the socio-economic system without a strat-egy of sustainable management

• The use of the best available information, knowledge, and tools, infusedthroughout and an interactive process will result in improved, better-informed decisions

• The use of a model as a tool in the decision-making process will enhanceawareness of the interrelationships within the ecosystem, especially itsinput and output variables This will further enhance accuracy of predic-tions for and awareness of the consequences of human actions and deci-sions concerning the lagoon system

• Implementation and integration will need to occur at various national,regional, and state levels, but will be most effectively and ultimatelyaccomplished at the local level

• Public and stakeholder input and involvement into the process provides forincreased acceptance of the plan and degree of implementation success

8.1.4 W HAT I S D ECISION M AKING ?

Decision making means choosing between alternative courses of action when theconsequences resulting from this choice are not always certain Decision makinginvolves information processing Therefore, both the information and the processutilized are critical to effective decision making The process of decision making calls

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for an assessment of existing and desired information and constraints as well as ananalysis of the costs and benefits of each possible alternative choice The accuracy ofthe analysis depends upon the accuracy of the information available for the analysis.The information and tools available to the decision maker are referred to as theDSS (see Figure 8.2) The DSS therefore consists of a wide array of quantitative andqualitative data and tools, as well as the process and structure developed to ensureintegrated and coordinated long-term decision making A number of tools are available

to the decision maker This book focuses on providing these data and tools, includingmodels, to be used as valuable means for predicting outcomes of alternative choices

A conceptual example of a DSS for decision making in balancing socio-economicand NC development is presented in Vadineanu.2,3 An example of a DSS used formanagement of a watershed is the Colorado River DSS by the Colorado Water Con-servation Board and Division of Water Resources.4 Other examples of applied decision-support systems and integrated modeling are the USDA’s DSS for the Integrated PestManagement Program5 and the Rousseau et al.6 integrated model of land use and watermanagement These examples demonstrate model applications and scenario analysesbased upon real data derived from the information collected as part of the project’s DSS

An underlying premise to any decision is the recognition of the interdependencebetween the lagoon ecosystem and the socio-economic infrastructure that directlyand indirectly influences the ecosystem (i.e., catchment area, watershed, airshed).This important link is the basis for any DSS with the goal of developing a long-range integrated plan for sustainable management of lagoons The area’s socio-economic goals should reflect sustainability of the ecological life-support system ofthe lagoon Both ecological and economic impacts should be quantified and analyzed

as thoroughly as possible in any decision

The following sections describe a process that facilitates decision making Eachsection addresses an essential step that allows the decision maker to gather, process,and analyze information to produce effective decisions that result in sustainablemanagement of a lagoon system These sections further suggest the involvement ofthe public and stakeholders wherever possible in order to maximize informationexchange and implementation success

Decision making must be recognized as an ongoing process Decisions that affectthe lagoon area will be made continually The important need and goal should be

to develop a process or system that provides for informed decisions by the manydifferent agencies and authorities that will be making decisions in this area This iswhy an integrated, multidisciplinary plan is necessary A plan or process that involves

as many of the decision-making authorities as possible will increase effectiveness,consistency, and integration into the community Decisions will continue to be madeand the process should incorporate additional information and tools through regularevaluation of existing conditions

8.1.5 W HAT I S S USTAINABLE M ANAGEMENT ?

As introduced in Chapters 1 and 2, sustainable management is managing to meetpresent needs as well as providing for future generations to meet their own needs.1

Conceptually, it requires the awareness and consideration of the ecological system

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by the socio-economic system that has super-imposed itself upon the natural lagoonsystem It requires measurements of and accountability for the values that the lagoonecosystem provides to the SES that affects it.2,7 Harris8 has compiled a series ofpapers on rethinking sustainability in terms of institutional roles and many othersocietal considerations

8.2 IDENTIFICATION OF THE PROBLEM AND NEED

FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT

Since early times, human settlement of coastal zones and utilization of these highlyproductive natural resource areas have created rural and urban landscapes reflectingcultures centered on trade and largely oriented toward the use of these specialecological systems Agricultural development, urbanization, and associated indus-trial developments continue to modify and impact the coastal zones globally It is

no wonder that we find today that in most NATO coastal countries the vast majority

of the population lives within a 50-km coastal band.9 This has resulted in direct andindirect impacts that have considerably reduced the ability of these ecosystems tomeet an ever-increasing demand for their use and development Human populationimpacts have upset the delicate ecological balance and have resulted in the compro-mised health and productivity of both the ecological and economic systems no longerbest serving the people of the area

It is ironic that the values provided by the lagoon systems that have been thebasis for human habitation and development are those values that have been mostsignificantly impacted as a result of habitation If coastal zones are going to continue

to meet competing interests, an integrated, balanced management approach must bedefined and implemented for the long term The management approach must considernot only the broad interests for use and development (demand), but also the naturalresource limits for delivery of goods and services (supply) and consequences ofoverutilization Decisions about lagoon management should be based upon the bestavailable scientific ecological and economic information and should be made with thebest tools and processes available

Just as the decade of the 1970s was considered the foundation of modern ronmentalism, the 1980s were recognized as the emergence and framing of the concept

envi-of sustainable development The World Conservation Strategy (WCS) launched bythe IUCN in 1983 not only presented the popular definition of sustainable develop-ment, but also concluded that existing decision-making structures and institutionalarrangements, both national and international, were inadequate to meet the demands

of sustainable development.1

Numerous multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) resulted, and themultilateral fund encouraged participation of developing countries.10 The 1990swere then considered the decade for implementing sustainable development as thetrend toward gobalization accelerated The 1992 UNCED Rio Earth Summit pro-duced major advancements in the implementation and application of sustainabledevelopment Agenda 21 provided a blueprint for the environment and developmentinto the 21st century and resulted in several major conventions and agreements.The Global Environmental Facility (GEF), created in 1991, and the Commission

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on Sustainable Development in 1992 facilitated the implementation of Rio ments; however, the Rio + 5 report concluded that progress had been inadequateand too slow The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)created in 1995 and the International Organization of Standardization 14000 mir-rored sustainable development efforts in the private sector Since the turn of thecentury, attempts to implement sustainable development have continued around theworld, as more specific challenges and questions emerge with the additional inte-gration into traditional approaches to development and planning.10

agree-Below is a list of common problems and conditions associated with degradation

of lagoons The decision-making process must identify these conditions, prioritizethese problems, and address them in an integrated, long-term plan in order tosustainably manage the lagoon

Conditions that indicate a need for sustainable management of a lagoon are

• Eutrophication

• Contamination (by persistent and toxic substances)

• Oil pollution

• Presence of artificial radionucleides

• Exploitation of living (reduced shell and fin fisheries) and mineral resources

• Lack of sanitation of bathing waters

• Coastal degradation

• Threat to marine biodiversity

As described in Chapters 4 and 5, nutrient loading is a common problemthroughout the coastal zone environment Inadequate urban and industrial drainageand wastewater treatment facilities and run-off of nutrient-laden water (nitrogen,phosphorus) from agricultural areas in the catchment area are often responsible fornutrient loading in coastal zones In addition, atmospheric deposition of nitrogenand other chemical constituents is significant in a broad geographic area and con-tributes to concentration of pollutants in coastal zones Many other specific problemsexist locally, including dumping of chemical wastes, weapons, industrial wastes,alien invasive species, and large-scale construction These conditions are often theresult of lack of land use planning and signal the need for sustainable management

It is important to note that it is usually less costly and more efficient to detectand treat these conditions early in their development These are some of the morevisible reasons to sustainably manage a lagoon They indicate that the health ofthe lagoon system is threatened and that the lagoon will not be able to continue

to provide the life support systems for quality of life for all living plants andanimals (including humans) in the lagoon watershed This results in a compromisedecology and economy of the area

Because coastal lagoon areas are highly sensitive and subject to overutilizationand degradation, it is no surprise that more than 30% of the special protection areasdesignated under European Union directives for conservation are coastal, and thatmany NATO and partner countries have developed a considerable body of protectivelegislation in recognition of their value

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In order to arrive at the need for sustainable management, it is necessary to firstidentify the problems or issues driving the lagoon system and its management Thedecision maker must assemble and utilize the best available data and the knowledgebased on the lagoon system that can provide this information This can be done byengaging the scientific community, regulatory authorities, nongovernment organiza-tions (NGOs), and stakeholders with the data, expertise, and knowledge of the lagoonsystem Compilation and analysis of the most current information and opinions willprovide the decision maker with the best definition of the problems and drivingforces of the lagoon system Information must include data on both the lagoon’secological and socio-economic values Once the problem is recognized, the decisionmaker is faced with a multitude of choices on how to proceed toward a solution.The first step toward a solution, addressed in Section 8.3, focuses on identifying thecritical driving forces and components of the lagoon system as well as the SESaffecting it

8.3 DEFINITION OF LAGOON SYSTEM AND

CHARACTERISTICS USEFUL FOR THE DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

Decision makers may ask—What are the critical lagoon system components needed

in decision making? In order to answer this question they must:

• Identify and incorporate the best available data and expertise on theecological and socio-economic system (SES) of the lagoon area as well

as the tools to assess them

• Inventory the watershed components, their ecological and economic value,and all existing and potential impacts that call for decision making

• Determine those critical driving forces and variables that are producingthe problem

The first step in defining the lagoon system is to inventory available ecologicaland socio-economic data and expertise on that specific lagoon system as well aspooling data from other lagoon systems for a broader and more global perspective

Chapter 2 clearly introduced the lagoon system components of both the ecologicaland socio-economic systems From this knowledge and these data, the critical drivingforces or problems need to be determined Not all the data are critical to a decision,and it is important to sort out which data are appropriate and needed for the decision.This can be done by locating and engaging those ecological and economic expertsand stakeholders most familiar with the lagoon

The lagoon ecosystem components identified and described in Chapter 2 arethose components that we recommend be considered in the decision-making process.These ecological components and the hierarchical interrelationships between themare considered to be the basic elements used to define the natural system and identifythe problems in the lagoon system These components describe the “supply” side,

or NC, provided by the lagoon system to the SES, or the “demand” side.9

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Just as the ecological components were defined and inventoried (Chapters 2through5), the SES components should be, too The basic units or elements of theSES and the hierarchical interrelationships within its infrastructure need to be iden-tified and inventoried.11,12 For example, the units and levels of agencies, private interestgroups, industries, land use, education system, and information system that have aneffect on the lagoon system should all be considered as basic conceptual and meth-odological units with which to approach sustainability Ecological and economicvariables representing both the potential capacity of the lagoon and the potential use(supply and demand) should be inventoried and viewed as important considerations

to the decision maker.12–15

Once inventoried, the value of the basic components should be estimated Anexample of an economic valuation or inventory is provided in Figure 8.3 It consists

of two steps The first step is to define the economic values derived from andintrinsic to the lagoon ecosystem, commonly referred to as the NC Capital hasbeen traditionally defined as the accumulated wealth in the form of investments,factories, equipment, etc NC is similarly defined as the natural resources we use,both renewable and nonrenewable More recently, this definition has been expanded

to include not only the “goods,” but also the myriad ecological “services” that thenatural system provides (e.g., wetland filter pollutants from run-off water, buffershorelines from erosion) and which are, in many cases, sinks to ground water.16

For example, Costanza et al.,17 Brouwer et al.,18 and Wilson and Carpenter19

describe the significant economic values of wetlands acknowledging their functional resource role The status of a methodology attempting to quantify thesevalues is rapidly evolving and still considered to be inadequate in its early devel-opment stages.13,20–23

multi-Defining the contribution of a lagoon to an area’s economic system thereforeconsists of identifying the major economic and social values of the lagoon ecosystem.This can be done by categorizing the stocks that produce the wide range of ecologicaland economic goods and services used by the area’s economy as NC or manmadecapital.17,24,25 Any analysis of NC should include both renewable and nonrenewableresources as well as the wide range of ecosystem processes that maintain andprovide for the ecological life-support system of the area Therefore, it is important

to include in any analysis the many natural processes and functions that maintainthe atmosphere, climate, hydrology, soils, biological fertility, and productivity aswell as nutrient recycling, waste assimilation, and even the maintenance of geneticstocks (Figure 8.3) Unfortunately, estimation of these values is not a simple processand has only recently begun to be well quantified Nevertheless, estimates of thesevalues should be developed in order to comprehensively account for the value ofthe lagoon ecosystem to the area

Additional anthropogenic values, including aesthetic and amenity values, havebeen placed on ecosystems.14,15,17,19,24,26 These values should also be estimated inorder to allow for a realistic cost-benefit analysis of the various alternatives forlagoon management Section 8.7 presents a summary of some of the existing valu-ation tools and methods for quantifying the economic value of the ecological assets.The second step in this inventory or SES definition is to identify those naturaland human elements and actions (demands) that influence the lagoon ecosystem

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and therefore the economic values associated with it In other words, it is firstnecessary to identify and inventory the NC provided by the lagoon ecosystem andestimate its economic value It is then important to inventory all of the existing andpotential socio-economic impacts, natural and anthropogenic, to the lagoon, in order

to evaluate the cost-benefit of each impact on the NC Here, the decision maker

FIGURE 8.3 Economic valuation of a lagoon (Modified from Kulshreshtha, 1999.)

TOTAL ECONOMIC VALUE

Direct Use Value

Indirect Use Value

Option Value

Existence Value

Bequest Value

Output in Terms of Economic Commodities

Benefits in Terms of Economic Production Support

Environmental Control Services

Water Quality/Quantity Flood and Erosion Control Ecological System Integrity and

Biodiversity Preservation

Global Linkages

Market Value Output of Commercial Commodities

Non-Market Value Output of Non-Market Goods

Lagoon floral, faunal, and other resource harvest:

Commercial and Non-Commercial (Personal) Harvest of Lagoon Resources, i.e., Shell Fish and Fin Fish, Salt and Mineral Extraction, Water Usage

Recreation and Tourism: i.e., Boating, Swimming, Hunting, Fishing, Nature Appreciation, Nature Photography, etc.

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should gather the best data and expertise on the SES and assess each of the impacts

in order to identify which are the key driving forces and variables in this system

An example might include the determination that the industrial sector is the keydriving force in the point source contamination or pollution in the lagoon system,which has diminished the ability of lagoons to provide clean water for tourism,fisheries, etc

Another example might be that of poor agricultural practices resulting innonpoint source pollution and water quality degradation It is often a combination

of these variables that affect the lagoon ecosystem integrity, and it is the task ofthe decision maker to address each of these driving forces that are causing theproblem in the most integrated, long-term method possible This then calls forinventories of farms, agricultural co-ops and industries, agricultural agents, andthe other existing socio-economic units that address the agriculture in the area.Further information and knowledge needed here might also include the bankingand insurance structure, which provides resources to the farming community andaffects their farming structure It also includes an analysis for the farming com-munity of the kinds and numbers of crops, farms, agricultural markets, equipment,financing, programs, and regulations Oglethorpe and Sanderson27 present an eco-logical economic model for agri-environmental policy analysis, which includesmany of these factors

Only through use of the most current data and knowledge of this system canthe decision maker recognize and evaluate the various options to address the problem

A process for involving and engaging these agricultural and support socio-economicunits needs to be developed as addressed in Section 8.4.7 Other SES infrastructuresinvolve the tourism, fishing, or municipality planning sector It is the task of thedecision maker to identify which of these key SES units and structures are the drivingforces behind both the problem and resolution for the lagoon conditions

Decision makers should weigh the cost and benefits of their preferred alternativechoices before making a final decision Estimation of the economic value of each

of the goods and services provided will supply critical data for a cost-benefit ysis.28 The use of a model to predict outputs of the SES should provide the basisfor estimating both the ecological and economic changes expected (see Chapter 6for details) As a model predicts new outputs, these changes in the NC will need to

anal-be recorded as assets or liabilities for the affected economy Each change in themodel’s input variables has a corresponding output change in the NC that needs to

be documented in economic terms Assigning monetary values to all goods andservices is the critical link in providing more complete data for decision makers todetermine the consequences of their actions in terms of benefit or loss to public orprivate financial interests (Figure 8.4).29

One scenario would be that of lagoon fisheries If input variables such as toxics

or nutrient loads increase, there could be a resulting decrease in the fisheries stock.The corresponding market values for the fish stock, the resulting decline in localemployment, and other fisheries stock-related goods and services provided by thefisheries should be quantified in order to estimate the economic impacts of such achange This is the additional data that the decision maker needs to analyze the costand benefits of any decision that might influence this system

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This is an unfortunate but globally recurring scenario Biological monitoringindicates that a decline in water quality (usually associated with an increase innutrient loading and toxics) has shown corresponding declines in fisheries stock inthe last half century Use of those water quality indicators in a model would allowfor prediction of the resulting estimated economic decline Costs of clean-up or otherwater quality improvement efforts could then be factored into the equation to cal-culate both short and long-term net gains or losses These are additional concernsand values that the decision maker must factor into the cost-benefit analysis

FIGURE 8.4 Cost-benefit analysis in decision making.

Lagoon Natural Capital Socio-Economic System (State)

Sustainable Management Goal

Trajectory T2 Tn

Modeling Alternatives

or Options

Decision Making (Choosing One Alternative)

Alternative Comparison

Valuation (Use/Non-Use Values)

Cost -Benefit Analysis (+/ − )

(CBA)

Implementation

Evaluation and/or Monitoring

Restrictions and Constraints for Each Option Time Scale

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NC by the increased use and degradation, must be quantified as well Similarly,increased population growth and corresponding land or water use changes can bemeasured by changes in biological indicators Chapter 7 deals with this concept indetail and provides examples and discussion of monitoring techniques.

8.4 TOOLS FOR DECISION MAKING

A wide assortment of implementation tools is available to those involved in theplanning process and to decision makers Many effective tools are already beingused for improvements in lagoon water quality and the health of the socio-economicand ecological systems in the watershed Involvement of more types of constituentgroups and plan participants usually enriches the number and types of tools, options,and resources available A sample list of tools now being used to assess and improvethe health of these systems is provided below

Technical (scientific ecological and socio-economic) tools available are

• Models—including modules of hydrodynamics, chemical processes, logical, ecological, land-use, and spatio-temporal factors that describe thelagoon system (Chapters 3–6, Section 8.4.1)

bio-• Monitoring (Section 8.4.2 and Chapter 7)

• Indicators—biological, social, economic, etc (i.e., the Organization forEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) core set of indicators)(Section 8.4.3)

• Graphic user interface, including geographic information system (GIS)(Section 8.4.4)

• Economic valuation methods (Section 8.4.5)

• Environmental and social assessments (Section 8.4.6)

• Policy transformation and implementation (Section 8.4.7)

• Public input (Section 8.4.8)Since most of these tools have been described in more detail in previous chapters,only a brief summary is provided here in the context of their use in decision making

8.4.1 M ODELING AS A D ECISION -M AKING T OOL

A model is a useful tool for decision making because it provides for a better standing of the elements, mechanisms, kinetic processes, and capabilities of the sys-tems being modeled Modeling allows for integrated interpretation of input scenarios

under-by varying the existing parameters to the desired future conditions to produce ical solutions for the differential equations describing the ecosystem’s processes Theuser is then able to model different alternative scenarios and analyze costs and benefits

numer-of each numer-of the outcomes that has been input A model provides the decision makerwith a prediction, based upon the best scientific information available, of the outcome

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of changing input variables This provides the necessary basis from which to analyze

the costs and benefits of each alternative choice A model, therefore, provides a

predictive tool to the decision makers for use in their DSS, a tool that can predict the

outcome of many different possible choices Even though the results are predictive

and not certain, they provide the decision maker a greater understanding of the

eco-system and the consequences of changing input variables See Chapters 3 through 6

for examples of and references to watershed models

Decision makers should weigh the cost and benefits of their preferred alternativechoices before making a final decision Estimation of the economic value of each of

the goods and services provided will supply critical data for a cost-benefit analysis.28

The use of a model to predict outputs of the SES should provide the basis for estimating

both the ecological and economic changes expected As a model predicts new outputs,

these changes in the NC will need to be recorded as assets or liabilities for the affected

economy Each change in the model’s input variables has a corresponding output

change in the NC that needs to be documented in economic terms Assigning monetary

values to all goods and services is the critical link in providing more complete data

for decision makers to determine the consequences of their actions in terms of benefit

or loss to public or private financial interests (Figure 8.4).29

An example of how an integrated management of surface water model can be used

in decision making can be found in Mailhot et al.30 A number of land use scenarios

such as timber harvest, agricultural practices, industrial, and urban land activities are

modeled to show the varying outputs according to the change in land use or practice

Another example of a watershed model is the Patuxent Watershed Case Study(PLM), which combines general models of ecosystem and economic site-specific

processes with remote sensing and GIS data on land use changes.25,31 This case study

demonstrates simulation of detailed spatial dynamics of the watershed including the

interaction of ecological and economic components and provides the link between

science and policy Another general model that might be useful in describing the

ecological interrelationships can be found in the general ecosystem model (GEM)

Chapters 2 through 7 provide a variety of other specific models that address and best

model the units described in each chapter

8.4.2 M ONITORING AS A D ECISION -M AKING T OOL

Monitoring provides specific answers for specific questions posed about the specific

aspects of a lagoon system; therefore, proper design of a monitoring program is

essential for providing the right data to answer these specific questions Monitoring

collects selected data, with specific quality, format, collection, storage, and analysis

guidelines, specifically designed to answer the questions desired to describe the

status of the lagoon The thoughtful and planned choice of variables to measure over

time will provide decision makers and managers with the information needed to

assess the status of a lagoon as well as to progress toward any goals and objectives

set for the lagoon system plan Therefore, informed decisions can best be made

through a properly designed monitoring program and protocol including the selection

of the most appropriate parameters GEO 2000 recognizes effective monitoring as

one of the most important needs in advancing sustainable development.10 When a

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sustainable management plan is developed for a lagoon system, certain goals and

objectives are set If the correct variables are not identified and measured, then the

resulting information is of no use or is misleading to decision makers It is essential

to select and agree upon the appropriate variables and how to measure them in order

to develop an effective monitoring program Guidelines and more information on

the various aspects of monitoring are described in Chapter 7

8.4.3 I NDICATORS AS D ECISION -M AKING T OOLS

Indicators have been used extensively as a tool for gauging the ecological status of an

ecosystem as well as the effectiveness of lagoon management efforts However, little

progress has been made in the development of measures for sustainable development,

and there is no general agreement on what parameters should be used to measure

sustainability Efforts to formulate a set of sustainability criteria that can be used to

indicate whether a path is sustainable have recently commenced.32 Recent attention has

been focused on the need to develop indicators of sustainable development.10,33 The

term indicator has been given various definitions, but it generally refers to a measure

of something The OECD defines an indicator as “a parameter, or a value derived from

parameters, which points to, provides information about, or describes the state of a

phenomenon, environment, or area with a significance extending beyond that directly

associated with a parameter value.”34 Indicators include both measures of environmental

quality and anthropogenic pressures resulting from social and economic activity

Eco-logical indicators are also essential in determining what to monitor and how to interpret

what is found as well as assessing the effectiveness of management actions The

exist-ence of indicators helps to facilitate and to stimulate long-term protection of the

envi-ronment and to foster sound envienvi-ronmental decision making through credible science

The OECD developed a systematic framework for environmental indicators monly referred to as “pressure-state-response” or driving force-pressure-state/impact-

com-response (DPSIR),34 which is based on the following causality chain: Human activities

(SES) exert pressures on the environment (“pressure”) and change its quality and the

quantity of natural resources (NC)(“state”) Society responds to these changes through

environmental, general economic, and sectoral policies (the “societal response”) This

format has also been adopted as a feedback loop by the Global International Water

Assessment Committee and European Environment Agency (EEA) to pressures

result-ing from human activities.34

Indicators of pressure (P) can also be called indicators of driving forces orstressors In the case of eutrophication or contamination, pressure on the lagoon is

caused by the direct input from point and diffuse sources of anthropogenic matter

The pollution load can be regarded as a primary pressure indicator However, the

original cause of pressure is sometimes created far from the lagoon The

identifica-tion of pressure requires knowledge of SESs within the catchment basin The reason

for the original pressure might be poor governance or economic or social problems

A causal chain analysis is needed to identify the original source of pressure

There-fore, we might have primary pressure indicators or secondary pressure indicators

The following examples of the pressure indicators are related only to primary (direct)

pressure

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State (S) indicators are needed to assess the state of the lagoon system properly

This knowledge comes through research and monitoring This is why establishing

proper monitoring and research programs is an important task

Response (R) indicators should help the decision-making process, developingregulatory standards and identifying the actions needed The response in most of

the cases should be based on modeling scenarios showing effects of different

deci-sions However, modeling can produce a reliable answer only if based on well-based

data sets obtained within scientific and research programs

The following examples of general indicators are provided to illustrate some ofthe most common symptoms and environmental issues These examples are provided

to present the use of the “pressure-state-response” framework35 and are by no means

a complete identification of all related indicators

Issue: Eutrophication

Eutrophication has been defined by the OECD as “over-nourishment of adequate

plants.”34 This is a particularly important issue in semi-enclosed basins and lagoons

and has caused significant adverse biological effects over the past few decades The

following pressure/state/response indicators have been used to assess and monitor

the eutrophication of lagoons

Anthropogenic Pressure Indicators

Discharge of nutrients from point and diffuse sourcesDischarge of nutrients from untreated sewageAirborne discharges of nitrogen and phosphorusAgricultural run-off of fertilizers

Environmental State Indicators

Winter concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus N/P ratio

Chlorophyll a concentration in surface waters

Increased frequency and presence of toxic algal species

Secchi-depth visibilityDepth range of macrophytesSpecies type and distributionOxygen depletion in historically oxygenated areasIncrease in opportunistic algal types

Government/Society Response Indicators

Reduction of nutrient discharges from point and diffuse sources Adoption of best/sustainable agricultural practices Technical measures to prevent/treat eutrophication, e.g., sewage and wastewater treatment, buffer strips, wetland restoration

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Issue: Chemical Contamination

Presence of chemicals, which are toxic, persistent, and liable to bioaccumulation,including inorganic (heavy metals), organic (some biocides and industrial compounds,usually chlorinated, and some polycyclic aromatichydrocarbons), and metal-organiccompounds (organic compounds of mercury and tin) The following indicators can

be used to monitor and assess this aspect of lagoon health

8.4.4 G RAPHICAL U SER I NTERFACE AS A D ECISION -M AKING T OOL

Anything that helps the user prepare input data for a model and/or to analyze andvisualize the outputs of a model can be thought of as a user interface Data inputforms, file format conversion programs, and graphical post-processing software canall be part of user interfaces

Usually, the model itself is a stand-alone computer program written in a standardprogramming language, which can read or write in a predefined format This softwaredevelopment strategy usually makes the model operation harder, but the modelingsoftware can be ported to different computers or operating systems easily In the 1960sonly computer scientists were able to use computers efficiently The type of input wasnot very important for them, and some could even give commands in binary code

Anthropogenic Pressure Indicators

Discharges of toxic compounds from land-based sourcesDeposition of toxic compounds via atmosphereDeposition of toxic compounds from sea-based sources

Environmental State Indicators

Contamination levels/concentrations in sediments and biota

Bioaccumulation levels/rates in organismsLong-term trends in concentration levelsEcotoxicological effects, e.g., reproductive declines, immunosuppression, carcinogenic effects, genotoxic effects

Government/Society Response Indicators

Improvement/construction of wastewater treatment facilitiesBan or significant reduction in production and/or use of substances (e.g., DDT, PCBs)Reduction of toxic emissions from industry

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Today, scientists, engineers, and even managers (some of them with little computerknowledge) are using software for engineering and decision-making purposes Theseusers are specialists in hydrodynamics, ecosystem modeling, water quality management,decision making, environmental management, water resources, etc., but they are not(and they need not be) computer scientists In this case, the user interface has the task

of isolating the user from the details of information technologies and supplying the userwith an environment, where the user needs to know only about the processes and notabout the computational details such as how to format the input files for the models

8.4.4.1 Types of User Interfaces

A general classification of user interfaces would be as follows

• Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs): These user interfaces use all theadvantages of window-based operating systems and environments such

as Microsoft Windows or X-Window of UNIX They have graphicalelements such as data boxes and command buttons, etc GUIs are easy

to design but in many cases the coding process needs considerabletime and manpower Most commercial and some freeware modelingsoftware packages are distributed with GUIs Innovative technologieslike GIS are integrated into GUIs The latest version of EPA’s WaterQuality Model WASP (Version 6.x) has a GUI with GIS and databasesupport

• Geographic Information System (GIS): In the last few decades, GIS hasbecome an important tool for spatial database compilation, environmentalassessment, and presentation of modeling results GIS is used extensively

to store spatially distributed data (land use, demography, bathymetry, ness, vegetation, sediment physical and chemical parameters, etc.) A num-ber of coupled hydraulic and ecological models include GIS as a part ofuser interface to enter the data and visualize the modeling results (MIKEmodel family developed by DHI, SMS models, ASA models, and WES =CH3D developed by the USACOE are GIS-compatible formats) Geosta-tistics, including spatial interpolation techniques, are critical to create thestatistically reliable spatial grids, which are necessary for both hydraulicand ecological models Further modeling applications are commonly used

rough-to combine outputs of ecological models rough-together with other relevant mation (i.e., socio-economic maps pollution levels) as well as performadditional spatial analysis for use in integrated coastal zone management.Finally, GIS is a very valuable tool to present modeling results as self-explanatory maps and graphical interfaces to the public and decision makers

infor-• Command Line Based User Interfaces: The user runs data input commandsfrom a nongraphical command prompt These may also be used for datafile management or file format conversion This type of a user interfacecan also be used as a preprocessor, which checks the validity of the inputdata The CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic/water quality model developed

by U.S Army Corps of Engineers has a utility program for this task.36

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• Hybrid User Interfaces: These interfaces have graphical and commandline–based parts A hybrid user interface consists of many computer pro-grams interacting with each other and working together Usually thegraphical part takes the management of the command line–based parts.The command line–based parts interact with the raw data and the graphicalpart is responsible for visualization of modeling data.

8.4.4.2 What Can a User Interface Do?

A user interface will help a user enter the correct data in the correct format Asituation may arise, when a user makes a mistake when entering data, which cannot

be detected by the model A user interface will detect the error and ask the user for

a correct entry, before running the model with invalid input data Another thing auser interface can do is to create a model input file from different data sources such

as databases or GIS data A new user of a model would find a GUI very useful,because he or she would not need to deal with data formats of a model and couldconcentrate on other things Some modeling packages have grid generators, whichuse GIS data to create computational grids for the models

Some user interfaces also have post-processing facilities, which are even moreimportant in analyzing and visualizing the results after a model has been run Somemodels may create output files, which might be several hundred pages long Agraphical post-processor, which is a part of the user interface can make the longoutput file more understandable and accessible Some of these post-processors cancreate outputs for GIS, making it even easier for the user to interpret the results.User interfaces can do a lot of work for the user, and they make the lives ofscientists, engineers, and managers easier, but they cannot do all the work for theusers The data analysis, preparation of the input data with valid and correct param-eters, and interpretation of the results are (and will be) three important tasks thatshould be accomplished by the user(s) The user must never forget that “garbagein” means “garbage out.” There are many cases where impressive and “colorful”results with no physical meaning were obtained from simulations within a few hours

of computational time So the user interface only helps the user to get rid of theinformation technology details

8.4.4.3 Design and Development of User Interfaces

Three important steps in a user interface development process are planning, visualdesign, and code writing

In the case of GUI and hybrid user interface development, the visual design isvery important User interfaces may get data from different sources such as electronicspreadsheet and database files Another important issue in user interface design ispresentation of outputs Because model outputs may be used in scientific or engineer-ing reports, they should be converted into readable data with a desktop publishingsoftware package used for report writing

The most important concept in user interface design as a part of a modelingsoftware package is feasibility Many information technologies such as object

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