MANAGING PROJECTS IN HUMAN RESOURCES, TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT PHẦN 4 pot

There are also risks tothe project that exist only because the project exists, for example, the risk thatthe project will not achieve its objectives.. Risk management is, however, fundam

prepare a project brief so that agreement can be obtained with the projectsponsor This document will provide a blueprint for the planning phase ofthe project.

Managing risk

Events rarely happen in the way we expect them to, so there will always berisks associated with a project As a project takes place in a wider environ-ment, there are the risks normally associated with day-to-day work in thatsetting, including health and safety risks, for example There are also risks tothe project that exist only because the project exists, for example, the risk thatthe project will not achieve its objectives In this chapter we consider how toidentify areas of risk and what can be done to reduce the likelihood of damage

to the project

RISK AND CONTINGENCY PLANNING

Risk is the chance that something will happen that will damage the project.Many risks can be predicted and you may feel that some aspects of risk man-agement are simply common sense For example, if you will not be able tostart work until essential supplies have been delivered, you may think ofphoning the supplier to ensure that the delivery is still planned to be on time.You may also have thought well in advance and selected suppliers that youknow to be reliable Unfortunately, we do not always think this throughcarefully and some risks are not so easy to foresee

A ‘risk management’ approach requires a different kind of thinking to ournormal everyday approaches It may seem rather negative and discouragingbecause it requires us to think about all the things that could go wrong ratherthan to think in positive ways about how it will look if everything flows toplan Risk management is, however, fundamental to project management,because it enables you to plan realistically to avoid disruption by building inways of responding to the most likely and most damaging risks if they arenot preventable As this consideration of risk informs how you plan, partic-ularly in terms of scheduling time, effort and budgets, it needs to be donebefore the planning stage Risks arise both from within the project and fromthe context or environment of the project.

Example 5.1

Internal and external risks to a project

An HR manager whose role was to implement and monitor mance standards was concerned about a number of complaints thathad been received about the quality of cleaning She set up a project

perfor-to develop a quality moniperfor-toring system, and identified some dards and performance indicators by interviewing other managersand team leaders in each of the different areas of the organization Thecleaning contracts were due to be retendered and the timing was im-portant because the new contractors would probably need to knowthe performance indicators when they applied to deliver the service.She was also worried about how the new standards would bemonitored

stan-This project had a number of internal risks There was a risk thatthe cleaning specifications would not be developed to reflect all of therequirements that were necessary because they had not been fullyidentified There were risks associated with the rewriting of contractsand liabilities Although the contractors were external to the organi-zation , the standard of performance was definitely part of this projectand so needed to be considered as an ‘internal’ risk The managerdecided to address risks associated with rewriting contracts by agree-ing performance standards with those who won the contracts Shewould need to identify a member of staff to monitor the standards.There were no obvious external risks to this project, but some wereidentified when this was carefully considered There was a risk thatexisting contractors would not be able to achieve higher standards ofcleanliness within the existing contract parameters and that therewould be expensive legal proceedings to terminate existing contracts

before new contractors could be appointed Another external riskmight be that some standards related to cleanliness might be set na-tionally in connection with legislation governing workplace condi-tions for employees The organization would then have to conform,although this project would have put it in a good position to complywith any new requirements.

In order to manage risks we need to identify them and to decide how likely

it is that they will happen It can be reassuring to consider the probability as

it reduces some of the uncertainty in a project Another way to reduce tainty is to consider the amount of information that is necessary in order toproceed with confidence For example, quality is often difficult to describe inexact terms, and there may be a risk that the quality of the project outcomeswill not meet the expectations of the key stakeholders This risk can bereduced by communicating with those stakeholders both before the projectand as it progresses to ensure that sufficient understanding is developed andthat there is time to make changes if it is necessary

uncer-Consideration of risk in a project is usually limited to the possibility ofdifferent hazards impacting on the project and its purpose, not risk in anyform in which it might affect the organization in which the project is located.Therefore the only external risks that would normally be considered are thosethat might impact on the project For example, a risk assessment for a projectthat involves relocating an office would be likely to be affected by localchanges in public transport routes, but a project that was developing stan-dards for office procedures probably would not

PREPARING TO MANAGE RISKS

There are four stages to risk management:

1 Identifying the risk – identifying which hazards are likely to affect the

project and documenting the characteristics of each risk

2 Impact assessment – evaluating the risk to assess the range of possible

outcomes in relation to the project and the potential impact of each ofthese

3 Developing plans to have in reserve to reduce the impact of the most

likely risks and to ensure that these plans are implemented whennecessary

4 Ensuring that the risks are kept under review and that appropriate

plans are developed to meet any changes in the type or probability ofadverse impact

In many projects, these stages are considered almost simultaneously, but inlarge-scale projects attention should be given to each separate stage

Risks arise from many different sources These can be grouped as:

࿖ physical – loss of or damage to people, equipment, stored information orbuildings as a result of an accident, fire or natural disaster;

࿖ technical – equipment or systems that do not work or do not work wellenough to do the job intended, or that breakdown frequently;

࿖ labour – key people unable to contribute to the project because of, forexample, illness, career change or too much other work;

࿖ political/social – for example, support for the project may be withdrawn

as a result of a policy change by government or senior management, orbecause of protests from the community, the media, customers or staff;

࿖ liability – legal action or the threat of it because some aspect of the project

is discovered to be illegal or because there may be fears of compensationclaims if something goes wrong

This list can help in identifying the risks to any project In addition, it is veryhelpful to discuss the project ideas with all the stakeholder groups that youcan identify, because each may see the project differently and be able to iden-tify different hazards that might be encountered

One way to approach risk identification is to consider risks to the project

as a whole but also to identify risks to each of the main stages of the project

If you think of the project as a whole, risks might include the possibility ofsome change to the key objectives being required If you think of each stage,risks will be more detailed and the potential impact of hazards may change.For example, staff might be allocated to the project and may take part in theplanning stage but be called to deal with unforeseen emergencies in otherareas of work when they are scheduled to be implementing the project.The whole point of identifying areas of risk is so that you can reduce thenegative impact on the project if the worst happens If you can anticipate arisk you can prepare a plan, often called a contingency plan, so that you areprepared to take action to reduce the potential damage

PAUSE FOR THOUGHT

Imagine that you are managing a project that relies on services vided by one contractor who will work with you over a period of sixmonths List the possible risks associated with that contractor

pro-Your list of risks might include contractor sickness or absence, lack

of promised knowledge or skills or capability Perhaps you ered costs and whether the contractor might present higher expenses

consid-or fees than had been anticipated You might also have noted that thecontractor might work more slowly than had been scheduled or fail

to achieve the quality of work required

Organizations are usually careful when contracting to include ditions about quality, timescale and costs However, this does notalways guarantee that the service provided will be exactly what wasexpected, and things can go wrong It is not unusual for estimates to

con-be insufficient for the work that needs to con-be done or for the time thatwork will take to be underestimated In either case, there can be prob-lems if staff have been contracted for too little time or at too low a cost

RISK ASSESSMENT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS

Risk assessment goes further than identifying a potential risk To assess the

risk you need to estimate how probable it is that a risk will become a reality

Impact analysis then builds on the assessment by considering how much

dam-age might be caused to the project if a risk materializes

The key questions to ask are:

࿖ What is the risk – how will I recognize it if it becomes a reality?

࿖ What is the probability of it happening – high, medium or low?

࿖ How serious a threat does it pose to the project – high, medium or low?

࿖ What are the signals or indicators that we should be looking out for?

As you assess each risk it is usual to write them into a table, as in Table 5.1

If you have identified a number of risks to assess, this table may have to beset out on a large sheet of paper or board so that you can put each risk intoone of the cells All those written into the top right-hand cell are those mostdangerous to the project, because they are very likely to happen and will

have a very damaging impact on the project if they do happen Others in theright-hand boxes are also important to consider in your risk managementplanning because they have the potential to cause considerable damagealthough they are less likely to happen Anything in the low impact/lowprobability box can be ignored unless subsequent events lead you to reassessthat risk and to place it in a higher probability category Even then, if it willhave little impact on the project you may still be able to ignore it This is all

a matter of judgement, but using a structure to organize your assessmenthelps you to review one risk against another and to identify those for which

it is important to prepare contingency plans

STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH RISK

There are a number of choices when considering how to manage risks Theseinclude:

࿖ avoiding risk – for example, you might cancel an element of a project thatwas in danger from a hazard that was likely to happen and would have

a seriously damaging impact;

࿖ reducing risk – for example, planning frequent reviews into the processand involving stakeholders so that they can influence progress towardsacceptable outcomes;

࿖ protecting against risk – for example, taking out insurance against ticular risks;

par-࿖ managing risk – for example, preparing contingency plans and revisingthe project plan when necessary;

࿖ transferring risk – for example, passing responsibility for a risky taskwithin a project to another organization with more experience in that area

of activities

Table 5.1 Risk probability and impact

Low impact Medium impact High impact

High probability

Medium probability

Low probability

Example 5.2

Strategies for dealing with risk

A personnel manager set up a pilot project to test the practicalities of

an anticipated change in the law involving the employment of peoplewith disabilities There were questions about whether the managerwas wasting money and time by running the pilot because it seemedpossible that the legislation would not proceed through Parliamentwithout substantial changes being made relating to requirementsplaced on employers

The risks to this project fall into the political/social category andalso have some technical aspects There was a risk that the projectwould be wasted if the anticipated change in law did not happen orwas substantially delayed There was also a risk that the legislationwould be changed and that the project would not focus on appropriateissues

The strategy chosen was to reduce the risk The project was slightlyrefocused to enable the organization to review its current employmentpractices for disabled people and to make recommendations abouthow improvements could be made that would benefit the organiza-tion This provided information that enabled it to take action veryquickly once the legislation details were confirmed It was able toconform with the legislative requirements while ensuring thatchanges that were made brought some additional benefits to theorganization

A CONTINGENCY PLAN

A contingency plan is one that is intended for use if a particular contingencyarises In risk management, a contingency plan is made for use if the riskbecomes a reality, to minimize the damage that would be caused from itsimpact

A contingency plan can only be made when risks have been identified andtheir probability and potential impact assessed The purpose of the contin-gency plan is to limit the damage that could be inflicted on the project and totake action to move the project back into balance again Contingency plansmay include a number of different options in response to potential crisis sit-uations For example, you may have identified the potential risk that a flu

epidemic in winter will reduce the staffing on the project during a crucialphase One contingency plan might be to have a list of temporary staff andagencies that could quickly be approached to provide staffing if the needarose Another contingency plan might be to delay the completion time forthe project.

One perhaps less obvious advantage of creating contingency plans is thatthe consideration of risks can be shared with stakeholders at an early stage,and potential responses discussed without the pressure of being in a crisissituation Plans can be approved and potential costs built into reserve bud-gets so that action can be taken without delay if it becomes necessary.You will need to develop contingency plans for each of the risks that youhave assessed as potentially very likely to occur Your aim should be to bringthe project back on track in terms of maintaining the quality and keepingwithin the budget and timescale A risk will usually cause concern in one ofthe dimensions of quality, budget or time, and the contingency plan will often

be to increase the resource in another dimension For example, if the riskidentified is to the timescale because one of the tasks might take much longerthan estimated, the contingency plan might be to increase the budget for thattask to enable more people to work on it to speed it up If the risk is to thebudget with the danger of costs escalating, the contingency might be toreduce the quality specification for some elements of the project in which theimpact of quality might be less important

A FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING RISK

A document called a ‘risk log’ or a ‘risk register’ is normally used to prepare

a plan for management of risk The identified risks are listed, together withthe assessment of their probability and the assessment of the extent of theirimpact should they become a reality Against each risk is a further columnheaded ‘action’ which outlines the contingency plan that can be put intoaction if the risk becomes real An example of a risk register (or risk log) isgiven in Table 5.2

It provides a framework so that decisions and actions can be taken quicklywhen necessary The risk register should be amended and added to regularly

Table 5.2 Format for a risk register

Risk Impact Probability Action

Funding High Low Secure funding base prior to start of projectEtc

during the project whenever new risks are identified and when more isunderstood about the nature of risk in the project.

INFLUENCING STAKEHOLDERS

Some projects have potential risk from stakeholders who do not fully supportthe aims or processes of the project The extent of power held by stakeholdersvaries, but those who are powerful can be very damaging to a project andcan sometimes hold the power to stop a project You can use a techniquecalled ‘stakeholder analysis’ to identify which stakeholders hold most powerover the smooth progress of the project, and you will then be in a position toconsider how you might influence them to reduce any negative impact Somepeople would see use of this technique as very manipulative, and you willwant to consider if it is appropriate to use it In most projects it is very impor-tant to try to accommodate stakeholders’ views and to respect the strengthwith which views are held It is possible, however, that in some situationsthere are some voices that hold considerably more power than others, and itmight be necessary to enable weaker voices to be heard and not to besquashed by those that are loud and forceful

Once you have identified your stakeholders and have encouraged them all

to express their views about the project proposals, you can analyse holder support When you have set out the position as it appears to be fromthe initial views expressed, you can identify which stakeholders oppose theproject or aspects of it You can also decide where to put your efforts in influ-encing stakeholders to offer more support to the project or to reduce thestrength of their opposition

stake-The first stage is to set out the stakeholders as in Table 5.3 to show whereyou estimate their current position from the views that they have expressed

Table 5.3 Stakeholder analysis, stage 1

Stakeholder Stop Allow Help

These positions are considered in terms of those who allow and so will not put obstacles in the way of the project, those who help by offering positive support and those who will try to stop the project by whatever means they

have available

Once you have mapped out these positions you can decide which of thestakeholders might be influenced to be more supportive It is probably notworth spending time and energy trying to move stakeholders from the

allow position to being more positive unless you think that their help would

be particularly useful However, it is often worth trying to move those in the

stop position into allow.

To do this you will have to focus on exactly what aspect of the project eachstakeholder opposes and consider what you could do to reduce their con-cerns Sometimes opposition may be because of a fear of disruption duringthe activities of the project An example of this is when residents opposebuilding plans because they fear noise and excessive traffic Oppositionmight be reduced if arrangements were made to avoid any noise at night and

to provide temporary road access to the site It is not always possible to movestakeholders from their original positions, but it is usually worth consideringhow fears might be reduced If opinions cannot be changed, it might be nec-essary to take every opportunity to raise awareness about the anticipatedbenefits of the project As the project progresses and understanding develops

it may become easier to change opinions

Example 5.3

Managing the risks

The headquarters building of a fast-growing organization was quently reorganized to accommodate additional staff The most recentreorganization drastically reduced the area used as a staff canteen

fre-Table 5.4 Stakeholder analysis, stage 2

Stakeholder Stop Allow Help