Regional Transit Coordination Plan_Service Coordination Study Summary Report (September 2004)

The study follows five major steps, each presented in a separate chapter: • Chapter 2: Identification of Major Activity Centers and Quantification of Associated Travel Markets – This cha

Regional Transit Coordination Plan (RTCP)

Service Coordination Study

Summary Report, September 2004

Regional Transportation Authority

of Northeastern Illinois (RTA)

175 W Jackson, Suite 1550

Chicago, IL 60604

www.rtachicago.org

Prepared by the RTA with

assistance from Booz Allen

Hamilton, Inc

CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 1-1

CHAPTER 2 : IDENTIFICATION OF MAJOR ACTIVITY CENTERS AND QUANTIFICATION

OF ASSOCIATED TRAVEL MARKETS 2-1

2.1 Definition of Major Concentrations of Activity 2-1

2.2 Analysis of Travel Market Patterns 2-22

2.2.1 Regional Travel Model Data 2-22

2.2.2 Methods Used 2-23

2.2.3 Consideration of Minority and Low Income Populations 2-25

2.2.4 Results 2-29

CHAPTER 3 : EVALUATION OF EXISTING TRANSIT SERVICE 3-1

3.1 Classification of Travel Markets by Quality of Transit Service 3-1

3.1.1 Introduction and Methodology 3-1

3.1.2 Resources 3-2

3.1.3 Results 3-3

3.2 Supplementary Evaluation of Transit Services 3-6

CHAPTER 4 : DEFINITION OF TRANSIT IMPROVEMENTS FOR SELECTED MARKETS 4-1

4.1 Introduction 4-1

4.2 Description and Exploration of Service Improvements 4-1

4.3 Detailed Analysis of Transit Service to Specific Travel Markets 4-6

CHAPTER 5 : EVALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION OF COST-EFFECTIVE

IMPROVEMENTS 5-1

5.1 Evaluation of Ridership Impacts 5-1

5.1.1 Identification of Itinerary Characteristics 5-1

5.1.2 Selection of Itineraries 5-2

5.1.3 Application of Service Improvements 5-4

5.1.4 Ridership and Incremental Revenue Estimation 5-9

5.2 Estimation of Cost Impacts 5-14

5.2.1 Data Update 5-14

5.2.2 Model Recalibration and Adjustments 5-15

Regional Transit Coordination Plan Service Coordination Study

2

6.2 The Need for Cost Allocation / Shared Funding 6-2

6.2.1 Examples of Shared Funding Arrangements 6-3

6.2.2 Potential Benefits of Cost Allocation/Shared Funding Arrangements 6-4

6.3 Desirable Characteristics of a Shared Funding Mechanism 6-5

6.4 Structure of a Cost Allocation / Shared Funding System 6-6

6.4.1 Duration of Funding 6-6

6.4.2 Funding Program Type 6-7

6.4.3 Structural Options for Cost Allocation / Shared Funding 6-11

6.5 Parameters for Implementing a Cost Allocation / Shared Funding System 6-12

6.5.1 Sources of Funding 6-12

6.5.2 Basis for Distribution of Funding (for Funding Transfer Programs) 6-13

6.5.3 Basis for Funding Disbursement (for Grant Programs) 6-16

6.6 Summary of Considerations for Shared Funding Programs 6-19

CHAPTER 7 : MAJOR FINDINGS 7-1

BIBLIOGRAPHY B-1

This Summary Report has been excerpted from the Regional Transit Coordination Plan: Service

Coordination Study Final Report, prepared for the Regional Transportation Authority by Booz

Allen Hamilton Inc., May 2003

Study as part of the Regional Transit Coordination Plan (RTCP) The RTCP is a

multi-year program of studies aimed at enhancing regional mobility by facilitating seamless

travel on public transportation between the region’s three service boards – the Chicago

Transit Authority (CTA, operating city buses and rapid transit lines), Metra (commuter

rail), and Pace (suburban bus) Exhibit ES.1 shows the overall structure of the RTCP

Exhibit ES.1 Regional Transit Coordination Plan Framework

Management PlanRTA, CTA, Metra, Pace

Management PlanRTA, CTA, Metra, Pace

Public Involvement & Focus Groups

Market Identification & Sensitivity Analysis

ServiceCoordinationStudy

FareCoordinationStudy

FareCoordinationStudy

InformationCoordinationStudy

InformationCoordinationStudy

Systems AnalysisPolicy RecommendationImplementation Plan(s)

Since its inception in December 1999, the RTCP has been addressing the four principal

elements of regional transit coordination – information coordination, physical

coordination, service coordination, and fare coordination (see the Bibliography at the

end of this report for additional reading)

The purpose of the Service Coordination component is to evaluate ways to facilitate

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

ES-2

of service in prominent markets Finally, the study estimated the cost-effectiveness of

possible operating changes that would incrementally improve service coordination,

using the existing transit network

The primary consideration in selecting activity centers was the number of people

traveling to these centers, but care was taken to ensure a variety of types of locations, so

that the largest city and suburban employment sites were included, along with

important retail, cultural/recreational, educational, medical, and industrial

concentrations Sites were selected to ensure a geographic distribution throughout

various parts of the region in the city and suburbs alike The major activity centers

selected for analysis are listed in Exhibit ES.2 These regional destinations represent a

variety of trip purposes, and they are places where people want to go or need to go, by

transit or by other modes, depending on the availability of service

Exhibit ES.2 Regional Activity Centers

Downtown Chicago (Loop) North Michigan Avenue University of Illinois at Chicago / West Loop Westside Medical Center

Museum Campus / Soldier Field O’Hare Airport / Rosemont Hyde Park / University of Chicago Ford Chicago Assembly Plant Evanston / Northwestern University Lake-Cook Road Corridor

Schaumburg / Northwest Corridor Loyola Medical Center / Maywood Great Lakes Naval Training Center Oak Brook / East-West Corridor Joliet

A 44-zone travel analysis model was used to quantify existing levels of trip-making to

the activity centers listed in Exhibit ES.2 Exhibit ES.3 shows the zones used in this

model The line separating zones 9 through 17 from zones 18 through 26 distinguishes,

in very general terms, the core service areas of CTA and Pace from one another (Metra

serves areas both within and beyond this dividing line, and its commuter rail lines are

shown in Exhibit ES.3.)

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

ES-4

containing the activity center As expected, those origin zones were usually close to the

destinations In order to include travel markets involving lengthier commutes, the

remaining origins were chosen from those zones on the other side of the inner/outer

dividing line shown in Exhibit ES.3 This ensured the inclusion of suburban commuting

for urban activity centers, and of reverse commuting from the city to activity centers

located in the suburbs The resulting process identified 64 travel markets, each

consisting of a different pair of zones (one for the origin, the other for the destination)

Transit service to and from the regional activity centers was then assessed by examining

the “supply” of service in these prominent markets The transit service for each market

was rated based on frequency and directness of existing routes between a sample of

specific origins and destinations The transit service ratings range from 1 to 4; with “1”

representing direct and frequent service, “2” representing direct service with a transfer,

“3” representing circuitous service with multiple transfers, and “4” representing a lack

of transit service at the origin or destination Exhibit ES.4 shows the classifications of

transit service used for this study

Exhibit ES.4 Classifications of Transit Services

Transit

Service

Condition

No of Transfers

In general, the existing transit system is extensive and well-connected, especially for

travel to and from downtown Chicago However, other major regional activity centers

such as the Schaumburg and Oak Brook areas are not so well served by transit, despite

high demand for total travel In other words, the “supply” does not match the

“demand” in some cases

Thirty-one of the 64 travel markets were found to have poor transfers, many transfers,

high travel times, or some combination of these factors indicating that there was

considerable room for improvement For these travel markets, the study analyzed the

service characteristics of the specific transit links making up representative transit travel

itineraries for the relevant zone combinations Of these, 23 travel markets were

For these 23 travel markets involving interagency travel under less than optimum

transit service conditions, the study identified possible operating changes to improve

service using the existing transit network Such tactical improvements could involve

either adjusting the schedule or frequency of existing services, or adjusting the routing

or stop locations on existing bus routes or rail lines Limited additions of local

collector/distributor bus routes were also considered where necessary These potential

service improvements were evaluated for cost-effectiveness by comparing incremental

service costs with additional ridership and revenue that could be expected due to the

change Exhibit ES.5 shows annual cost and revenue estimates for potential service

improvements related to specific origin-destination pairs, reflecting the range of

adjustments under consideration

Exhibit ES.5 Cost/Revenue Evaluation of Potential Service Improvements

Improvement Annual Cost Annual Revenue

Woodfield Mall O’Hare

Airport Increase bus frequency $247,000 $25,000

Evergreen Park Ford Plant Extend bus route $538,000 $25,000

shuttle

$17,000 $5,000

Edgewater Lake-Cook

Kensington Soldier Field Increase bus

Negligible $106,000

Garfield Park Oak Brook

Mall

Add bus runs $168,000 $1,000

Midway Airport Joliet Increase rail

frequency

$832,000 $2,000 Jefferson Park Woodfield Add bus runs $247,000 $24,000

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

ES-6

Based on the limited analysis conducted for such potential service improvements, it appears that the only adjustments that clearly exceed the 50% recovery ratio target are those that entail little or no cost, such as adding a stop or minor schedule changes The other targeted improvements all involve adding service in one form or another, and are unlikely to be cost-effective (at least for the service board adding the service) The incremental costs of these service additions are all substantially greater than the anticipated revenue increase from these markets Some other adjustments that might be cost-effective, when the entire transit trip is considered, would weigh more heavily on a single service board Such service improvements might thus require a cost and/or revenue sharing arrangement in order for the change to occur Various cost/revenue sharing arrangements do exist between the service boards, but with limited application and scope

The evaluation of potential service coordination improvements examined only those trips between certain origin-destination pairs In practice, service adjustments aimed at improving service for some trips are likely to impact other trips, some positively and some negatively Thus, a demonstration program consisting of these various and targeted service improvements could be considered in order to better judge which types

of improvements warrant further application throughout the region

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

The objective of the Regional Transportation Authority’s Service Coordination Study is

to investigate ways to improve connectivity among transit services operating in the Northeastern Illinois region of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will Counties

Transit service in the region is operated by three service boards, all overseen by the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA):

ƒ Chicago Transit Authority (CTA), operating both bus and rail services, primarily

in and around the City of Chicago

ƒ Metra, operating commuter rail services

ƒ Pace, operating bus services primarily in the outer areas of Cook County and within the other suburban counties

Combined, these services cover more than 3,700 square miles in the six county metropolitan area, serving more than 590 million trips in 2000

This study addresses service coordination, which is one of four aspects of interagency transit coordination being advanced by the Regional Transit Coordination Plan (RTCP)

Parallel efforts, undertaken in other studies, explore physical coordination, information coordination, and fare coordination Exhibit 1-1 shows the framework for RTCP

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

1-2

Exhibit 1.1 Regional Transit Coordination Plan Framework

Management PlanRTA, CTA, Metra, Pace

Management PlanRTA, CTA, Metra, Pace

Public Involvement & Focus Groups

Market Identification & Sensitivity Analysis

PhysicalCoordinationStudy

PhysicalCoordinationStudy

ServiceCoordinationStudy

ServiceCoordinationStudy

FareCoordinationStudy

FareCoordinationStudy

InformationCoordinationStudy

InformationCoordinationStudy

Systems AnalysisPolicy RecommendationImplementation Plan(s)

Building on the background information about the transit system from the Location Study, the Service Coordination Study focuses on analyzing how well the existing transit system serves prevailing patterns of travel in the Chicago metropolitan region, especially where interagency transfers are involved or required Traditionally, transit has focused on a core market of travel to the central business district for job-related trips The growth of population and employment beyond traditional areas of concentration has created new needs for service to new markets and for new travel purposes The three service boards have gradually adjusted and expanded service to meet the needs of these new markets within their own respective service areas

Attempts to support trips that involve more than one service board, however, have received less focused attention There is currently no systematic and regular process to coordinate transit services among the three service boards on a regionwide basis The purpose of this study is to quantify service effectiveness in the Northeastern Illinois region, especially for transit coordination, and to identify and explore options to better serve important regional travel markets requiring improved connections between existing transit services

The study follows five major steps, each presented in a separate chapter:

• Chapter 2: Identification of Major Activity Centers and Quantification of Associated Travel Markets – This chapter describes the initial task of compiling of a list of high concentrations of activity, based on employment, government services, and regional retail and cultural attractions Each major activity center identified is analyzed to determine a set of zones which have a high proportion of people making trips to the activity centers in question, and for which travel to the activity center will likely require a transfer between different service boards

• Chapter 3: Evaluation of Existing Transit Service – Transit services between the travel markets (zone pairs) identified in Chapter 2 are inventoried and classified to determine how well transit serves each market

• Chapter 4: Definition of Transit Improvements for Selected Markets – General strategies to improve transit service are described, and these strategies are associated with specific travel markets for further analysis

• Chapter 5: Evaluation and Recommendation of Cost-Effective Improvements – This chapter analyzes the impacts of specific transit service improvements

on ridership, revenue, and cost Methods for estimating ridership and cost for each change are described in detail

• Chapter 6: Financial Implications of Service Improvements – This chapter focuses on developing a lasting process to plan, identify, and fund service improvements in a cooperative fashion to advance service coordination

Major findings and conclusions are highlighted in Chapter 7

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

CHAPTER 2: IDENTIFICATION OF MAJOR ACTIVITY CENTERS AND

QUANTIFICATION OF ASSOCIATED TRAVEL MARKETS

The first step in the detailed exploration of service coordination improvements was to identify major activity centers and to quantify the most important travel markets for these activity centers This chapter describes the data gathering and analysis associated with the identification of major activity centers in the Chicago metropolitan area This section is divided into two major subsections Section 2.1 describes how the set of major concentrations of activity (activity centers) has been defined Section 2.2 describes the process by which prominent travel market patterns were associated with the set of major activity centers established in Section 2.1 These prominent travel market patterns will be used as the basis for an analysis of transit service in later sections

2.1 Definition of Major Concentrations of Activity 2.1.1 Introduction

This task involved a systematic analysis of major employment centers, social service concentrations, and regional attractions in the six-county Chicago metropolitan area in order to identify a limited number of regional activity centers These activity centers served as the basis for evaluating existing and planned transportation services and facilities The results of this evaluation were used to identify service coordination opportunities and solutions

2.1.2 Criteria for Activity Center Selection

The goal of this task was to identify a list of at least 10 major activity centers in the county Chicago metropolitan area In consultation with the project team, three main criteria were developed for activity centers on this list :

six-• Diversity of type of activity – Many different types of activities take place in highly concentrated locations In order to capture a broad range of activity types, this aspect of the search for activity centers was stratified into three parts

– General employment – The total number of jobs within a specific area gives an indication of the attractiveness of a location as a site of economic activity High concentrations of jobs indicate locations where significant amounts of persons travel on a daily basis

– Social services – Transit often serves a special purpose especially for those in need of social services, health care, and educational

opportunities Additional activity centers will be added to the list based

on high concentrations of government employment (indicating a high

concentration of government services) and high concentrations of health care

– Regional attractions – Transit can also serve as a mode of convenience to regional attractions serving shopping, tourism, and cultural activities

Locations exhibiting high concentrations of retail, tourism, and cultural activity were also considered for inclusion in the list of activity centers

• Geographic diversity – The list of activity centers should incorporate a cross section of locations spread across the region, both within the central core and outside of it Since a significant amount of regional activity occurs in the downtown area of the City of Chicago (Chicago Loop), and transit service to the central downtown area is robust, the service coordination study actively sought out areas outside Chicago’s historic downtown core

• Likelihood of attracting trips involving multiple transit agencies – Activity centers of interest should be regional draws that attract patrons from one transit service area to another

Considering these three criteria, it was decided that the activity centers chosen should include situations addressing the problems and opportunities for interagency service coordination in urban and suburban contexts In the analysis of trip patterns associated with the final list of activity centers, the ability to service disadvantaged (and

disproportionately transit-dependent) populations was also included as a criterion for analysis

2.1.3.1 Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC)

The Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC) is the official comprehensive planning agency for the six-county Chicago metropolitan area Its responsibilities include estimating employment in the six counties of northeastern Illinois using data from the United States Census and the Illinois Department of Employment Security

Data from NIPC are available on a geographic unit designated as a quarter section A

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

people who work at establishments within the geographic area Part-time workers are counted, and a person holding two wage or salary jobs is counted twice NIPC data on employment are stratified according to several categories of employment, including government and institutional; manufacturing; retail; finance, insurance, real estate, and services; transportation, communication, utilities, and wholesaling; and other

• Total employment by category

• Employment normalized to population (i.e., number of jobs per resident)

• Employment normalized to the area of the zone (i.e., number of jobs per amount of land area, or density of employment)

2.1.3.2 Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau

The Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau (CCTB) is a sales and marketing organization which promotes the Chicago area for conventions, trade shows and group meetings, especially for major facilities such as McCormick Place and Navy Pier The CCTB works in partnership with the Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority, the Chicago Office of Tourism, and the Illinois Bureau of Tourism to promote tourism in the Chicago region The Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau compiles data on attendance at cultural and tourism destination from many of its member organizations and the Mayor’s Office of Special Events Data were collected from the CCTB on attendance at major recreational and tourist attractions in the City of Chicago, including festivals and sports venues, for 2001 These statistics assisted in identifying significant cultural and tourism-related activity centers in the City of Chicago Statistics on event

or venue attendance were compiled into clusters (based on geographic proximity) and ranked

2.1.3.3 Economic Census

The United States Census Bureau, through the Economic Census, collects information

on businesses and employees The Economic Census, conducted every five years, provides profiles of the United States economy Data compiled for the Economic Census includes the number of establishments, sales or receipts, annual payroll, and the number of paid employees Data are collected for all firms and classified according to the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) The smallest geographic unit for which data are reported are ZIP codes The last year for which data were collected and compiled and for which statistics were available at this writing was

1997 Data for 9 of the 18 industrial sectors in the 1997 Economic Census are available

at the ZIP code level

The Economic Census was used as a supplement to the NIPC data on employment in order to capture sectors of the economy not designated within the NIPC databases For this study, data related to three specific industrial sectors were compiled for all ZIP codes in the six-county Chicago metropolitan area The three sectors were (1) Educational Services (indicating educational clusters), (2) Health Care and Social Assistance (indicating medical and other social service concentrations), and (3) Accommodation and Food Services (indicating high concentrations of hotels and tourism-related establishments)

The Educational Services Sector, Number 61, includes establishments that provide instruction and training in a wide variety of subjects These include schools, colleges, universities, and training centers They may be privately owned and operated for-profit

or not-for-profit, or publicly owned and operated Services offered to students can include food and accommodation

The Health Care and Social Assistance sector, Number 62, includes establishments providing health care and social assistance to individuals These establishments include those providing only medical care, both health care and social assistance, and social assistance only The employees at these establishments are trained professionals, including health practitioners and social workers

The Accommodation and Food Services sector, Number 72, includes establishments that provide lodging and/or preparation of meals, snacks, and beverages for immediate consumption These activities are frequently combined at some establishments

Excluded from the sector are civic and social organizations; amusement and recreation parks; theaters; and other recreation or entertainment facilities providing food and beverages

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Economic Census defines an establishment as a single physical location at which business is conducted and/or services are provided This allows locations to be analyzed more accurately, since the employees of a single firm with operations at multiple locations are reported for the location of each establishment surveyed, rather than for the company’s headquarters

The third consideration is a caveat Economic Census data are not available for exempt firms in the Educational Services and the Health Care and Social Assistance sectors for zip codes or smaller units Data for tax-exempt firms are only reported in statewide and regional reports This exclusion may skew the results and should be used with caution in making evaluations, since many employees throughout Northeastern Illinois work for tax-exempt or government entities

tax-2.1.3.4 American Hospital Association

As a supplement to the health care data in the Economic Census, the analysis of activity centers incorporated data from the American Hospital Association (AHA) The AHA is

a national organization that represents health care networks and over 5,000 hospitals across the United States The AHA keeps a database of member hospitals, from which data were compiled for hospitals in the Chicago area Data on the number of staffed beds, outpatient visits, and personnel were used to determine which locations (as designated by ZIP Codes) had the highest concentration of health services

2.1.4 Development of the List of Major Activity Centers

Development of the list of activity centers was accomplished in three phases of analysis, corresponding to the three main types of activity specified in the criteria for activity centers The four phases of analysis were:

• a general analysis of total employment

• analysis of social services (health care and government services)

• analysis of regional attractions (retail centers, cultural centers and venues)

• consultation with the project study team

2.1.4.1 Locations with High Total Employment

An analysis of total employment was the first step in developing a list of activity centers for this study Using data from NIPC, the values of total employment by quarter section zone were divided into five ranges of employment and mapped onto a regional map in order to identify clusters of activity This map was used to identify clusters of employment (Exhibit 2.1)

Exhibit 2.1 – Total Employment by Quarter Section

1995 Total Employment 0

CTA/Metra Service

Significant Cluster

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Four different types of clusters were identified from the data:

• quarter sections in the highest range (above 100,250 employees)

• quarter sections in the second-highest range (between 45,243 and 100,249 employees)

• quarter sections in the third-highest range (between 15,243 and 45,242 employees)

• a cluster of more than five quarter sections in the fourth-highest range (between 3,618 and 15,242 employees)

These clusters are listed in Exhibit 2.2

Exhibit 2.2 – Clusters With High Levels Of Total Employment

of Chicago, O’Hare International Airport Fourth-Highest Range

(cluster of 5 or more quarter sections)

Schaumburg/Woodfield Corporate Center, West Loop/University of Illinois

at Chicago, Oak Brook, Lake-Cook Road Fourth-Highest Range

(cluster of 2 to 4 sections)

Downers Grove, McCormick Place, Morton Grove, Forest Park, Joliet

Locations that fit into the top four types of high employment clusters were considered for inclusion based on total employment alone Exhibit 2.3 shows the nine locations selected on this basis

Exhibit 2.3 – Top Activity Centers based on Total Employment

University of Chicago / Hyde Park CTA, Metra

West Loop / University of Illinois at Chicago CTA

2.1.4.2 Locations with Concentrated Social Services

In the interest of including various types of activity center, locations with high levels of social services were considered Three separate analyses were performed to determine which locations should be added to the list of activity centers:

• an analysis of government employment using NIPC data

• an analysis of potential social service-related sectors using Economic Census data

• an analysis of self-reported data from hospitals in the Chicago metropolitan area

2.1.4.2.1 Analysis of Government Employment using NIPC Data

Using a technique similar to that used to analyze total employment, a map of government employment was created based on NIPC quarter section data This map was used to identify clusters of government employment (Exhibit 2.4)

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Exhibit 2.4 – Significant Clusters of Government Employment

See Inset

1995 Government Employment 0

CTA/Metra Service

Significant Cluster

Five employment ranges were developed Locations that fit into the top three rangers are listed in Exhibit 2.5

ƒ quarter sections in the highest range (above 8,282 employees)

ƒ quarter sections in the fourth range (between 3,943 and 8,241 employees)

ƒ quarter sections in the third range (between 1,934 and 3,942)

Exhibit 2.5 – Clusters with High Levels of Government Employment

Range Cluster

Hospital, Wheaton (near College of DuPage), O’Hare International Airport

The two locations in the top range, the Chicago Loop and the Westside Medical Center, are on the recommended list of activity centers based on total employment (Exhibit 2.3)

Two additional locations from the second-highest range were considered for inclusion – the Cook County Courts at 26th and California, and the University of Illinois at Chicago

The University of Illinois at Chicago was considered for inclusion based on total employment alone The Cook County Courts cluster, however, was not recommended for the list of major activity centers since it is a specialized social services concentration, rather than a more general social services center likely to attract a greater variety of travel purposes

2.1.4.2.2 Analysis of Employment in Education and Health Care using the Economic

Census

Economic Census data were analyzed for two categories that might serve as proxies for social service industries – education, and health and social services Data were collected for all ZIP codes and organized first by range of employment reported and then by the number of establishments within each ZIP code Listings of the top ZIP codes for the Educational category and the Health and Social Services Categories are shown in Exhibits 2.6 and 2.7, respectively Unfortunately, the Economic Census data were inconclusive for these economic sectors, since many of the community areas identified failed to correspond to prominent clusters in either of their respective categories The fact that many of those people employed in these economic sectors work in the public and nonprofit sectors likely contributed to the inability to draw firm conclusions from the relevant Economic Census data

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Exhibit 2.6 – Areas with Highest Concentrations of Employees Working in

Non-Tax-Exempt Educational Establishments* (1997)

Number of Establishments

Range of Employment Reported in Sector

* ZIP Code level data do not include employees in government or non-profit establishments

Exhibit 2.7 – Areas with Highest Concentrations of Employees Working in

Non-Tax-Exempt Health Care and Social Service Establishments * (1997)

Number

of Establishments

Range of Employment Reported in Sector

60611 Near North Side/Ontario Street Cook 291 2,500 to 4,999

* ZIP Code level data do not include employees in government or non-profit establishments

2.1.4.2.3 Analysis of College / University Enrollment

Another way to gauge concentrations of educational opportunities is to examine college and university enrollment Exhibit 2.8 provides data on enrollment at Chicago area colleges and universities These data, collected by the State of Illinois Board of Higher Education, show that the University of Illinois at Chicago has the region’s highest enrollment This activity center is already considered for inclusion as a location with one of the highest employment concentrations in the region

Exhibit 2.8 – Enrollment at Chicago Area Colleges and Universities (Fall 2001)

University of Illinois at Chicago 24,610 DePaul University (multiple campuses) 19,549 Northwestern University 17,041 Harry S Truman College 14,147 Loyola University of Chicago 13,359

Northeastern Illinois University 10,937

Governors State University 8,800

2.1.4.2.4 Analysis of Hospital Size using American Hospital Association Information

In order to shed more light on the concentration of health care services in the region, data were analyzed from the American Hospital Association on major medical facilities and hospitals for 2001 (Exhibit 2.9) These data include the number of hospital beds, outpatient visits, and personnel Data for hospitals were compiled together where hospitals are located near each other Since the number of hospital beds is the only data category for which all hospitals reported data and provides a reasonable measure of comparison, the hospital clusters are ranked in order of number of beds Locations associated with the top two hospitals already fall within the recommended list of activity centers, confirming their position on the list The next two hospitals on the list were considered for inclusion – a cluster of hospitals in downtown Evanston, and the Veterans Affairs Medical Center in North Chicago

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Exhibit 2.9 – Data on Hospitals in the Chicago Metropolitan Area (2001)

Beds

Number of Outpatient Visits

Number of Personnel

1 60612

Westside Medical Center (Cook County Hospital, Rush Presbyterian-St Luke's Medical Center, University of Illinois at Chicago Medical Center)

Chicago 1720 1,448,440 16,874

2 60611

North Michigan Avenue – Streeterville (Northwestern Memorial Hospital, Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago, VA Chicago Health Care System)

3

60202 (with

60201,

60225, 60035)

Evanston Northwestern Healthcare,

Advocate Northside Health

At least 85,147

Exhibit 2.9 – Data on Hospitals in the Chicago Metropolitan Area (2001) (continued)

Beds

Number of Outpatient Visits

Number of Personnel

* Zip Code Cluster contains at least one hospital not reporting data for this category

2.1.4.2.5 Summary – Locations with Concentrated Social Services

Through the analysis of social service concentrations, only the analysis of hospital size resulted in locations being recommended for addition to the list of major activity centers These two locations are shown in Exhibit 2.10

Exhibit 2.10 – Locations to Consider based on Social Service Criteria

Evanston Hospital Cluster (downtown

VA Medical Center – North Chicago Metra, Pace

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

2.1.4.3 Locations with Regional Attractions

For the purposes of this study, regional attractions include retail centers, tourist attractions, areas with high concentrations of tourist-related businesses, and high-attendance sports venues Three separate analyses were performed to determine which locations should be added to the list of activity centers considered:

• an analysis of retail employment using NIPC data

• an analysis of employees in the accommodation and food services industrial sector by location, using Economic Census data

• an analysis of attendance figures collected by the Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau

2.1.4.3.1 Analysis of Retail Employment using Data from NIPC

Using the same basic technique as that used for the analyses of total employment and government employment, a map of retail employment was created based on quarter section data from NIPC This map was used to identify clusters of retail employment (Exhibit 2.11)

Exhibit 2.11 – Significant Retail Clusters

See Inset

Retail Employment 1995 0

CTA/Metra Service

Significant Cluster

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Again, five employment ranges were developed Locations that fit into the top two ranges are listed in Exhibit 2.12

• quarter sections in the highest range (above 3,414 employees)

• clusters of two or more quarter sections in the fourth range (between 1,511 and 3,413)

Exhibit 2.12 – Clusters with High Levels of Retail Employment

Range Cluster Highest Range (cluster

of 1 or more quarter sections)

Chicago Loop, North Michigan Avenue, O’Hare Airport, Woodfield Mall, Oak Brook Shopping Center, Hoffman Estates (Sears Headquarters)

quarter sections or more)

Yorktown Mall area (Oak Brook), Golf Mill Shopping Center (Niles Northern Cook County), River Oaks Shopping Center (Calumet City – Southern Cook County)

Five of the top six locations with retail employment are on the list of major activity centers The sixth, Sears Headquarters, is a major administrative center for a large retail company, and is therefore an employment site alone rather than a retail destination

Because the top five retail locations all correspond to locations in the list of major activity centers (Exhibit 2.3), no additional locations were recommended based on retail employment alone

2.1.4.3.2 Analysis of Employment in the Accommodation and Food Services Industrial

Sector using Data from the Economic Census

Economic Census data were analyzed for the accommodation and food services sector,

a potential indicator of a high concentration of establishments serving tourists Data were collected for all ZIP codes and organized by range of employment reported and then by the number of establishments within each ZIP code A listing of the top ZIP codes for the Accommodation and Food Services category is presented in Exhibit 2.13

Exhibit 2.13 – Areas with Highest Concentrations of Employees working in the

Accommodation and Food Services Sector* (1997)

Range of Employment Reported in Sector

Since the top four locations from this analysis are part of major activity centers already included, no additional locations were added based on this analysis

2.1.4.3.3 Analysis of Most-Visited Cultural Attractions

Data from the Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau were considered for indicators

of major regional cultural and entertainment draws Attendance figures for facilities were compiled into clusters in order to compare the relative attractiveness of a location

Data on tourist attractions and sports venues are shown in Exhibits 2.14 and 2.15, respectively

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Exhibit 2.14 – Annual Attendance at Clusters of Tourist Attractions (2001)

Exhibit 2.15 – Annual Attendance at Sports Venues (2001)

2.1.4.3.4 Summary – Locations with Regional Attractions

Through this analysis, one additional location was considered for the list of regional activity centers based on its association with regional attractions (Exhibit 2.16)

Exhibit 2.16 – Locations to Consider Based on Association with Regional Attractions

2.1.4.4 Locations Suggested by the Project Study Team

Most of the activity centers chosen for further analysis were selected on the basis of the three criteria described above – significant concentrations of total employment,

concentration of social services, and the presence of major regional attractions The project study team reviewed the selected locations and affirmed their merit for analysis

of transit effectiveness The project study team also suggested additional locations in order to support two additional goals of the list of activity centers:

• Geographic diversity

• Likelihood of attracting trips involving multiple transit agencies

The project study team analyzed the list of activity centers selected thus far, and noted that most of these centers were clustered around downtown Chicago and suburban areas in to the north and northwest of downtown Chicago Given this distribution of major activity centers, the project study team sought to identify locations in the south and west segments of the metropolitan region, using data from the analysis of major activity centers and the study team’s knowledge of the Chicago metropolitan region

Based on these considerations, the project study team suggested three additional locations (listed in Exhibit 2.17) The Loyola Medical Center / Hines VA Hospital cluster was selected from the list of hospital clusters in order to provide an additional suburban social service location Downtown Joliet was selected both for its location toward the far southwest of the metropolitan region but also as a representative of satellite cities Finally, the Ford Plant was suggested in order to add an industrial location in the southern part of the metropolitan region

Exhibit 2.17 – Locations to Consider Based on Input from the Project Study Team

Loyola Medical Center / Hines VA Hospital – Maywood

Pace

2.1.5 Summary

A total of fifteen locations were considered for analysis as major activity centers based

on three principal criteria (total employment, social services, and major regional attractions), supplemented by such other considerations as a variety of activity types

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

total employment, significant concentrations of social services, and a strong draw as a cultural, entertainment, or tourist-related site The fifteen locations, as shown in Exhibit 2.18, also are geographically dispersed with locations in central Chicago, inner suburbs and outer suburbs

Exhibit 2.18 – Recommended List of Major Activity Centers based on Total

Employment, Social Services, and Regional Attractions

Employment

Inclusion based on Social Services

Inclusion based on Regional Attractions

Inclusion based on Additional Input

O’Hare International

Schaumburg –

Downtown Evanston (including Evanston hospitals)

CTA, Metra,

VA Medical Center –

Loyola Medical Center

2.2 Analysis of Travel Market Patterns

Identifying the prominent regional travel market patterns required the selection of four

or five zones or clusters of zones with the strongest trip-making attraction to each of the zones containing the 15 major activity centers selected This was done using data from the RTA Regional Travel Model's travel demand estimates using 1995 as the base year, and a set of time-tested heuristics designed to create a set of origin-designation pairs that include the most strongly attracted zones and that account for a diversity of travel patterns

2.2.1 Regional Travel Model Data

In order to understand regional travel patterns and the general trends affecting transit travel and rates of transfers between different services, previous study efforts had analyzed projections of travel demand to 2020 This analysis of regional travel used data from existing regional travel model runs already performed for previous study efforts at the Regional Transportation Authority These previously executed runs of the RTA transit travel demand model used 1995 as the base year and 2020 as the horizon year for projections and for testing different planning scenarios Data from these model runs were re-organized and analyzed to provide insight on general travel trends Since

no new model runs were performed as part of this study, it is important to note that the travel trends related in this report reflect trends inherent in regional travel and regional development when the model was originally calibrated in 1996 As a result, the model may not capture changes in travel trends caused by recent trends in regional

development, such as the acceleration of significant residential development in central Chicago and increasing clustering of employment and housing around suburban Metra stations Nevertheless, the travel trends in the model should hold true in general terms, since the overall distribution of regional development and concentrations of major activity centers throughout the region has not changed significantly since 1996

The data from the RTA’s transit travel demand model indicate that regional travel on all modes of transportation is growing, as shown in Exhibit 2.19 However, increases in regional transit travel are not projected to keep pace with the projected growth in travel

by modes other than transit

Exhibit 2.19: Projected Daily Person Trips for the Chicago Region - 1995 to 2020

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

For the analysis of regional travel market patterns, estimates of average weekday person trips from the base year (1995) were organized by zone A 44-zone travel analysis model, with the zones organized around major downtown-oriented radial corridors, was used to quantify existing levels of trip-making to the activity centers

Exhibit 2.20 shows the zones used in this model The line separating zones 9 through 17 from zones 18 through 26 distinguishes, in very general terms, the core service areas of CTA and Pace from one another (Metra serves areas both within and beyond this dividing line, and its commuter rail lines are shown in Exhibit 2.20.)

• The importance of the travel market – calculated as the share of total average weekday trips from each origin zone to each destination zone (i.e., the total trips from each origin zone to the designated destination zone divided by the total number of trips from the origin zone to all destination zones) Ranking the origins by the share of total daily trips to each destination normalizes by the number of trips generated by each zone and therefore accounts for the differences between large zones and small zones

• The strength of the travel market - the total number of trips for each O-D zone pair

The top two zones were chosen based on the importance of the travel market (the first criterion) Where the relative shares of trips from two separate origin zones were relatively close, the second criterion, the absolute number of trips, was used As expected, the analysis showed that those origin zones with the highest proportion of travelers to zones with major activity centers were generally adjacent to destination zones In order to ensure a diversity of travel patterns, two additional criteria were introduced to produce two or three additional zones

2 This methodology examines travel patterns by zone as a representation of travel patterns to the location (the

major activity center) within that zone The methodology, therefore, assumes that travel patterns to the major activity center are similar to travel patterns to the zone containing that major activity center

Exhibit 2.20 Map of 44 Travel Zones

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

The first additional criterion was the selection of zones outside of the general region containing the zone Under this criterion, the six-county area was divided into two major subregions Zones 1-17 were classified as the inner region, and zones 18-44 were identified as the outer region For local transit services, zones 1-17 roughly correspond

to the CTA’s service area, and Zones 18-44 are served primarily by Pace bus service

(Metra’s rail network serves both the inner and outer zones.) Exhibit 2.20 shows the zone structure, with the inner zone region and outer zone region identified The selection of zones outside of each activity center’s respective subregion ensures a more representative regional coverage and includes zones with a higher likelihood of

44-interagency transfers In fact, the Regional Transit Coordination Plan’s Location Study showed that many of the interagency transfers occur in zones 9-26, which are the border zones between the inner and outer regions

The second additional criterion involved travel associated with zones in Chicago’s Central Business District (zones 1-5) These zones are generally well-served by direct and frequent transit services CTA bus and rail service for trips within in this area is generally dense and abundant, rarely requiring interagency transfers Additional zones were investigated for activity centers in Zones 1 through 5 in order to enhance the geographic diversity of zone pairs

2.2.3 Consideration of Minority and Low Income Populations

In addition to the two formal criteria for selecting origin-destination pairs, it is important to consider the extent to which the transit network serves minority and low income populations The system of 44 zones to define the region provides a useful basis for understanding how the minority and low income populations are distributed

throughout the region

Using data from the 2000 United States Census, the proportion of the population of each zone that can be classified as minority or low income were calculated The total

minority population was calculated as the total population minus the white Hispanic population The low-income household information was generated by the Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC), using the 1999 income ratio and household estimates NIPC calculates the income ratio by taking the average of the median incomes of the census blocks in the quarter section and dividing it by the average income for the entire region Quarter sections where the ratio of the mean of median incomes/regional mean income was under 0.5 (roughly, where average income

non-in the zone is less than half the regional average) were considered to be low-non-income areas All households located in the "low income" areas were summarized for the district A summary of these calculations is presented in Exhibit 2.21, with maps showing the concentration of minority and low income populations in Exhibits 2.22 and 2.23, respectively

Exhibit 2.21: Calculation of Minority Population and Low Income Households

Low Income Households

The Low Income Percentage is calculated as the percentage of households located in quarter sections categorized as low income areas by zone

Regional Transportation Authority Service Coordination Study

Exhibit 2.22 Percentage of Minority Population Residing in Quarter Sections by Zone

Exhibit 2.23 Percentage of Households Located in Quartersections Categorized as Low Income Areas by Zone