Post-Apartheid Patterns of Internal Migration in South Africa docx

Aims This book seeks to achieve the following objectives: provide clear definitions of migration concepts and present a literature-based foundationfor the study of internal migration in

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P IETER K OK , M ICHAEL O’D ONOVAN , O UMAR B OUARE AND J OHAN VAN Z YL

Compiled by the Integrated Rural and Regional

Development Research Programme, Human Sciences Research Council Executive Director: Mike de Klerk

All rights reserved No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced

or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers ISBN 0-7969-2004-4

Cover photograph by David Lurie, first published in his book

Life in the Liberated Zone, published in 1994.

List of tables vii

List of maps ix

List of figures xi

List of graphs xi

About the authors xii

Preface xiv

Overview xvii

1 Introduction 1

Migration data generated by Census ’96 2

Context and scope of the study 2

Purpose of the book 4

Outline of the book 4

2 Literature review 8

Current status of migration research 8

Definitions 8

Data adequacy, reliability and appropriateness 11

Theories and models of the causes of migration 12

Economic factors that cause migration 13

Economic factors that perpetuate migration 18

Non-economic factors that cause migration 19

Non-economic factors that perpetuate migration 26

Evaluation 27

Modified gravity model of migration 28

Problems with ‘migration intervals’ 30

Local/area-specific data: guidelines for research 31

Conclusions 31

3 Population redistribution 33

Urbanisation trends 33

Metropolisation and inter-metropolitan migration 35

Multivariate statistical techniques used in this study 36

Inter-provincial migration 59

Patterns of inter-provincial migration 38

Multivariate profiles of inter-provincial migrants 38

Inter-district migration 40

Labour migration 41

Migration ‘proper’ 42

Summary of the effect of distance 48

Summarising the interactions between districts 49

Other examples of migration modelling 50

Conclusions 51

4 Migration differentials 52

Proportion of migrants in the population 53

Migration intervals compared: 1975–80 and 1992–96 54

Migration selectivity 55

Age-gender selectivity 55

Employment, education and gender differentials 57

Comparing ‘migrants’ and ‘labour migrants’ 61

Differential migration: a multivariate analysis 63

Conclusions 71

5 The way forward 75

Dealing with migration in future censuses 75

Migration questions in sample surveys 82

Conclusions 82

Appendices A Inter-provincial migration: detailed MNA results 84

B Data and definition issues 92

C Information on the logistic regression 94

D Modelling migration: further attempts 96

Index 111

List of Tables

2.1 A suggested (partial) typology of spatial mobility

encom-passing both circulation and more ‘permanent’ moves, and

incorporating the more flexible approaches to defining

migration 93.1 Migration to, between and from the four main metropoles

and non-metropolitan areas in South Africa (1992–1996) 363.2 Inter-provincial migration in South Africa (1992–1996):

number of people involved in every migration direction 374.1 Age-specific comparison by province of the proportion of the

population that has ever migrated 534.2 Former migrants by population group (1975–1980 &

1992–1996) 554.3 Results of the logistic regression: Comparing ‘labour migration’

and ‘migration’ 614.4 Overall statistical results of the multiple classification

analysis (MCA) of the probability of having ever migrated 644.5 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: provincial location of the respondent 654.6 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: type of locality 664.7 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: population group 664.8 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: gender 664.9 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: age 674.10 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: marital status 674.11 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: highest educational qualification 684.12 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: work status 68

4.13 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever

migrated: annual household income 69

4.14 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: household size 69

4.15 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: dwelling type 70

4.16 An MCA-based profile of the probability of having ever migrated: home-ownership by the household of the dwelling lived in 70

5.1 Migration questions asked during Census 2001 79

5.2 Suggested migration questions for future Censuses 81

A1 Destinations of inter-provincial migration in South Africa: Some statistical details of the explanatory variables used in the multivariate nominal-scale analysis (MNA) 84

A2 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: province of origin 85

A3 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: type of locality (at destination) 86

A4 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: population group 87

A5 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: migration period 88

A6 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: age at (last) migration 89

A7 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: migrant worker status 90

A8 MNA results on inter-provincial migration destinations in South Africa: gender 91

C1 Variables (and their categories) used in the analysis 95

D1 Estimated coefficients of the model 99

D2 Elasticities derived from the model 101

D3 Overall distribution of reasons for leaving the previous place of residence 103

D4 Statistical details of a multivariate nominal-scale analysis (MNA): reasons for leaving previous place of residence 104

D5 Reason categories for leaving previous place of residence: results of the multivariate nominal-scale analysis (MNA) 105

List of maps

1.1 Location of provinces, districts and former homelands 1

1.2 Distribution of the population (1996): a district-based perspective 3

3.1 Usual districts of residence of labour migrants (1996) 40

3.2 Ratio of migrant workers to economically active population 42

3.3 District destinations of migrants (1992–96) 43

3.4 Origin districts of migrants (1992–96) 44

3.5 Origin districts of migrants to Gauteng (1992–96) 45

3.6 Usual districts of residence of Gauteng labour migrants (1992–96) 46

List of figures

2.1 (Extended) Value-expectancy-based model of migration

decision-making 232.2 De Jong’s general model of migration decision-making 27

List of graphs

3.1 Urbanisation levels (1904–1996) 34

3.2 Net inter-provincial migration (1992–1996) 39

3.3 Proportions of the various migrant categories 41

3.4 ‘Contribution rate’ and migration distance 46

3.5 Transformed ‘rate of contribution’ and migration distance: areas that were not part of former homelands 47

3.6 Transformed ‘rate of contribution’ and migration distance: former homeland areas 48

4.1 (a) Age-specific migration rates (1975–1980) based on the official 5 per cent sample of the 1980 census 56

4.1 (b) Age-specific migration rates (1992–1996) based on the migration community profile of Census ’96 56

4.2 District-based higher education and unemployment rates 58

4.3 District-based in-migration and unemployment rates 58

4.4 District-based out-migration and unemployment rates 59

4.5 District-based out-migration and unemployment rates (in terms of the ratio of females to males in the district) 60

4.6 Relative probability of having migrated (by income) 62

About the authors

Dr Kok also taught part-time in demography at the University of Pretoria and held theposition of Professor Extraordinary from 1991 to 2001 In 1996 he received the HSRC Awardfor Research Excellence

Michael O’Donovan

Michael O’Donovan is a research specialist in the Surveys, Analyses, Modelling and Mappingresearch programme He holds a Master’s degree in sociology from the University of the

Witwatersrand Prior to joining the HSRC, Mr O’Donovan established the Township

Databank, which aimed at the creation of an up-to-date demographic profile of Gauteng

townships and settlements

Michael’s area of research specialisation is the analysis, interpretation and management

of data, with a particular emphasis on large datasets, and he has recently been the projectleader for a study to develop a minimum data set on ageing in South Africa

Mr O’Donovan was the co-recipient of the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) Best Practice Award for a best practice in empowering urban communities, andbetween 1998 and 2000 he was a board member of Agrèment South Africa

Oumar Bouare

Oumar Bouare is a chief research specialist in the Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS and Healthresearch programme of the HSRC He holds a Ph.D in economics (New School for SocialResearch, New York), a Ph.D in mathematics (University of Paris VI), and an MA inphilosophy (University of Paris I, Sorbonne)

Oumar’s area of research specialisation is economic analysis One of his outstandingachievements is the development of a new theory of international trade, ‘Profit, and profit

and externalities as a basis for international trade’ (Instituto di Economia Internazionale, vol.

LI, no 3 in 1998) In this article, he developed a theory that profit, and profit andexternalities are a basis for international trade

Dr Bouare has recently been selected for inclusion in the 2002 edition of Great Minds of

the 21st Century, compiled by the Governing Board of Editors of the American Biographical

Institute (ABI) According to the ABI his selection is due to ‘significant accomplishments

within, and mastery of economics’ Earlier he was also included in Who’s Who in Economics

in the 21st Century, compiled by the International Biographical Centre, Cambridge, England.

Johan van Zyl

Johan van Zyl is a research specialist in the Integrated Rural and Regional Developmentresearch programme He holds a BA (Hons) degree in geography from the University ofPretoria Prior to joining the HSRC, Johan was employed by the Bureau for Market Research

at the University of South Africa (UNISA), and served in an advisory capacity for a number

of local and international organisations These include the SAARF Demographic ResearchDivision of the Bureau of Market Research at UNISA, Statistics South Africa (Census 1991and 1996 and October Household Surveys from 1995), the 1998 South AfricanDemographic Survey and the Demographic Surveillance System 1999–2000 (Wellcome Trustand the Africa Centre for Population Studies and Reproductive Health based at Hlabisa, KwaZulu-Natal)

Johan’s areas of research expertise include analytical demography (adjustment of censusdata for smaller geographical areas, population projections, estimation of fertility andmortality rates from survey data, applied demography and field surveys), interpreting theneeds of clients in order to design a survey (questionnaire design, sample specifications, andmanagement of fieldwork) and a detailed knowledge of the principles of data analysis

Mr Van Zyl has delivered various papers at national and international conferences, andpublished or edited several books, chapters or client reports in areas related to demography

as well as other survey-based studies

Aims

This book seeks to achieve the following objectives:

provide clear definitions of migration concepts and present a literature-based foundationfor the study of internal migration in South Africa;

provide a comprehensive overview of internal migration (based on recent census andother secondary data, mostly those provided by Statistics South Africa);

introduce techniques and approaches that can be used to analyse data on internalmigration;

provide guidelines for questions on internal migration in future censuses and othersurveys; and

help to pave the way for the questionnaire survey to be undertaken as part of the largerproject on the causes of migration

As a work it is rather technical so it is aimed at analysts (e.g academics, students and researchers)and decision makers dealing with migration issues rather than at the general public It shouldappeal to those with a ‘feel’ for figures and, preferably, some basic knowledge of statistics

Overview

What is immediately clear from the research undertaken for this book is that despite politicaland economic changes, migration patterns are essentially a continuation of patterns that pre-date the abolition of apartheid in South Africa A more substantive finding derived from theanalyses is that relationships and patterns of migration are complex

At times the relationships demonstrate great continuity, for example the apparentcontinuation of migration rates set 20 years ago by segregationist policies At others,established trends are discontinued, for example in the unexpected prominence of migrationfrom metropoles to non-urban areas There is discontinuity also in the role played bydistance, with one pattern evident in the population of the former homelands and another

in the non-homeland population One source of misunderstanding is the divergence inabsolute numbers and rates Rates of migration appear to be contradictory How thepopulation is distributed by location, area type and political heritage (setting the socialdimension aside) has to be borne in mind when examining the data

In the past, South Africa lacked suitable data on internal migration This meant thathistorical trends could not be analysed to the extent required in a country that underwentsuch notable political, social and economic changes during the final decade of the 20th

century The only available historical data on internal migration were those for the period1975–80, but these were flawed by the exclusion of data in respect of the former homelands

of Transkei, Bophuthatswana and Venda

Census ’96 provided a welcome change by making available, for the first time, data oninternal migration for the entire country and population This new source of data has invitedthe undertaking of appropriate analyses However, the prior absence of suitable data hasobstructed the development of experience in the analysis of migration data over time Thiscalls for some guidance on techniques for using national data on internal migration and forexamples of the kinds of analyses that can be undertaken This book aims to address theseneeds

Chapter 2 deals with the theories and models of migration Although the underlying(root) causes of migration are predominantly economic in nature, there are some veryimportant non-economic (mainly social) reasons why migration is often perpetuated andsometimes becomes systemic Non-migration is seen as the result of constraints to migrationcaused, among other things, by the costs associated with moving (especially over longerdistances) and by personality characteristics (such as aversion to risk-taking) Very often,

non-migration is caused by – and almost inevitably leads to – an in situ adjustment to the

current situation, irrespective of how unattractive that may be

In Chapter 3 the patterns of internal migration are analysed in relation to urbanisationand metropolisation trends in their historical context and with reference to the role ofapartheid The concentration of people and poverty in the former homeland areas and theresultant high population densities in these ‘rural’ areas were discussed The economicanomaly of high unemployment and low out-migration rates was highlighted Theimportance of regional (spatial) planning and development for the provision of economicopportunities and services in these hitherto deprived areas should again be emphasised.The two main types of migration that have been identified are ‘migration’ and ‘labourmigration’ The reason for separating these two lies more in the data constraints than in anyinherent conceptual or definitional differences In fact, the general migration typologydiscussed in Chapter 2 treats these two migration types as very much the same thing Thedata are not that tolerant though In the analyses in Chapter 4 that deals with ‘migration’,the main question addressed is why some people migrate and others not The analyses on

‘labour migration’ in this chapter deal mainly with a similar question, namely why somepeople become labour migrants and others not Various explanations for migration and non-migration are offered, but in the end the questions remain largely unanswered, mainlyowing to the absence of suitable data

Despite the data problem, an attempt is made in Chapter 4 to compare the basic migrationpatterns for the two five-year periods (1975–1980 and 1992–1996) for which relativelycomparable information is available The only analyses that are viable in view of the dataconstraints are those dealing with the different levels of migration among the various age andpopulation groups The findings indicate that despite dramatic political, social and economicchanges in South Africa (including the abolition of apartheid’s migration-related measuressuch as influx control and group area demarcations), there was an insignificant change in theoverall level of migration between the late 1970s and the early 1990s

A ‘modified’ gravity model is applied in Appendix D, and it is shown thatunemployment, income and racial differentials seem to play a lesser role in inter-provincialmigration than crime levels An analysis of the 1997 October Household Survey data (seeAppendix D) shows that a slight majority of moves were caused by economic factors(especially work-related reasons), but that the remaining moves had been caused by non-economic factors The results of the modelling attempts reported in Appendix D areinconclusive and even confusing This highlights, once again, the need for ‘purpose-made’data for the analysis of migration causes and patterns This need should be addressed to alarge extent by the HSRC-funded questionnaire survey that will be undertaken as part of thelarger project.

As in many other countries, internal migration in South Africa is an under-researched topic.This lack of research attention does not necessarily stem from perceived unimportance or alack of interest but rather from the historical absence of appropriate census data Problemswith census-based migration data are usually derived from limits to the number ofquestions, difficulties with the coding of origin data, and memory lapse (affecting mainlydata on time of the move) The main aim of this book is to describe migration in SouthAfrica, based on recent South African censuses and other national surveys, and to provide ananalytical evaluation of the migration data that they generated

Before Census ’96, South Africa lacked suitable census data on internal migration The onlypartly useful data were those for the period 1975–80 from the 1980 census, but these wereflawed by the exclusion of the former Transkei, Bophuthatswana and Venda homeland areas.Census ’96 therefore provided a welcome change, with a battery of questions that covered thelast move, irrespective of the time of the move, for the entire population and for the country as

a whole Using age-specific migration rates as a criterion for judging the validity of migrationdata, it was shown that the Census ’96 data conformed, in all the important respects, to theexpected pattern Other findings pointed to the same conclusion Our study therefore indicatesthat Census ’96 provided, for the first time ever, an invaluable source of data on South Africa’s

internal migration.

Census 2001 has built nicely on the baseline data provided by Census ’96 byconcentrating on migration since the 1996 census, and it will also improve on Census ’96 bynot only generating data on country but also province of birth

Although the emphasis in this book is more on census-based migration data, we alsolooked at other secondary national data (such as the October Household Surveys) that mighthelp to obtain a clearer understanding of the internal migration process in South Africa.However, from an analytical point of view, these other data sources proved to be somewhatdisappointing It should nevertheless be understood that migration is a highly complexcomponent of population dynamics

While ‘purpose-made’ sample surveys can generally deal effectively with the processesand causes of migration, census-based migration data are essential for providing the contextwithin which migration takes place in a country Although there clearly are limits to thescope of the migration data that censuses can provide, sample surveys cannot be successful

in providing the necessary insight into migration processes without reliable census data oninternal migration patterns and trends

Census ’96 opened up many opportunities for meaningful analyses of internal migrationpatterns, and Census 2001 built further upon that solid foundation These two censuses promise

to provide very useful data for comparative migration analyses It is now up to the migrationanalysts to utilise this opportunity to delve deeper into the complex set of factors associated with

South African migration patterns and trends The HSRC has shown its commitment to help fillthe existing gaps by funding empirical research on the causes of migration in this country It istrusted that other organisations and migration scholars will do the same If this book contributes

to making it possible, we will have achieved most of our objectives

C H A P T E R O N EIntroduction

comprehensive and detailed data on human movement Until recently migration analystsrelied on sample surveys that are neither detailed nor comprehensive enough for anunderstanding of this dynamic phenomenon Only censuses potentially offer informationwith the required breadth of detail.1 Unfortunately, before 1996 South African censusesgenerally failed to record migration data such as the place and timing of migratory moveswithin (and to) South Africa The 1996 version, officially referred to as Census ’96, was awelcome exception

Although South African censuses routinely provide data on the time and country ofbirth, only two previous censuses provided data on migration within the country’s borders

In 1980 respondents were asked where they had lived five years prior to the census, while in

1991 a question on the duration of residence at the current address was included

Map 1.1: Location of provinces, districts and former homelands

LEGEND Magisterial districts Former ‘homelands’ Provincial boundaries

When used in isolation both questions have inherent limitations when it comes to analysingmigration.

More problematic, though, is that in both those censuses only part of the country’spopulation was covered The 1980 census excluded the former nominally independent states

of Transkei, Venda and Bophuthatswana, and migration data for these former homelands arenot available despite constituting a substantial source of migrants, in particular labourmigrants (see Map 1.1) In 1991, another nominally independent territory, the formerCiskei, which also constituted a significant reservoir of migrants, was excluded from thecensus Only Census ’96 covered migration data for the entire country and provided usefuldata on movement patterns

It is hoped that the detailed analyses of some of the 1996 census data on migrationpresented here will contribute to a collective understanding of migration while makingmigration studies more accessible by showing how the information, coupled with the use ofstatistical techniques, can enhance understanding of the phenomenon

Migration data generated by Census ’96

The box on pp 6–7 lists all the questions included in the 1996 census that are related tomigration It shows that five fields of migration analyses were covered in Census ’96 These are(a) ‘lifetime migration’ (see questions 1.1 and 1.2), (b) ‘migrant labour’ (see questions 2 and5), (c) ‘place of usual residence’ (questions 3.1 and 3.2), (d) ‘duration of residence’ (question4.1), and (e) ‘origin of the most recent move’ (question 4.2) Taken together these questionsprovide, for the first time, a potentially powerful source of information on spatial mobilityleading to a thorough understanding of the dynamics of migration

Despite the fact that Census ’96 has been severely criticised in various quarters for notbeing altogether reliable, it provides an important opportunity for undertaking the sort ofmigration analyses required to understand its dynamics and this book explores how the datacan be used in migration research

Context and scope of the study

In 1996 South Africa’s overall population density was approximately 33 persons per squarekilometre (km2), which made it the 66th least densely populated of the 196 countries listed

by the Population Reference Bureau (1997) However, the population was very unevenlydistributed, with densities varying significantly between and within provinces (see Map 1.2).For example, the Northern Cape is the largest province (in terms of land area) and thesmallest in terms of resident population In 1996 it had a population density of just morethan 2 persons per km2 At that time, Gauteng, the smallest province in terms of area,accommodated 432 persons per km2.2

Population densities are usually related to the extent of urbanisation but in South Africasome of the least developed rural districts exhibit high population densities Particularlynoticeable on any population density map are the high densities in the former homelandareas.3 These high densities can be ascribed, among other things, to past segregationist

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

policies such as the Group Areas Act and influx control These instruments prevented the

African people from migrating to urban areas (see, for example, Kok 1986), and gave rise tolarge-scale forced resettlements (mainly to the former homeland areas) This resulted in theformation of densely populated areas with some of the lowest levels of service delivery,infrastructure and employment in the country Despite changes since the abolition of thesegregationist legislation (including the re-incorporation of the nominally independenthomelands), after 1994, the backlog is formidable These previously neglected areascontinue to be marked by high levels of poverty and vulnerability and thus continue toinfluence migration patterns

Migration, as usually reflected by people moving to better-serviced places with morepromising job prospects, has the potential to help redress these inequities However, ifpeople are denied the opportunity to move (for whatever reason), past inequities can even

be exacerbated It is therefore important not to look only at the causes and consequences of

migration as a social phenomenon, but also at the causes and consequences of

non-migration

As mentioned earlier, until 1996 no South African census provided the data required forcomprehensive migration analyses The project that led to these analyses being undertakenwas called ‘Causes of internal migration in South Africa’ It dealt with migration patternswithin the country, and with the causes of both migration and non-migration This book wasthe first in a series of products arising from the project, which included an empirical survey

Purpose of the book

This book attempts to place migration (and non-migration) in perspective For that purpose,use is made predominantly of the data contained in two census data sets The first is the

spatially highly detailed Census ’96: Migration Community Profile, and the second is the 10 per

cent sample of the 1996 census The first data set offers great detail on the spatial location

of the population (and thus of migrants) The second data set lacks the spatial detail butpresents the full census results for 10 per cent of the population, making possible anexposition of the social profiles of migrants and non-migrants Emphasis is placed in theanalyses on obtaining a better understanding of the complex migration/non-migrationdifferential, among other things In the process, migration/non-migration is analysed mainlyfrom a spatial perspective for provinces and smaller spatial entities (by utilising the data ofthe Migration Community Profile), and from the perspective of the individual resident(through analyses of the 10 per cent sample)

The issue of appropriately defining migration is dealt with extensively in Chapter 2, but

it is necessary to point out here that the term ‘migration’, as used in this book, includes allmigrants, while ‘labour migration’ refers to a specific subset of migrants

Outline of the book

Chapter 2 provides a theoretical exposition of migration research and serves as a backdropagainst which the remainder of this book should be viewed It explores the depth of ourcollective misunderstanding of internal migration in South Africa As indicated above, thismisunderstanding can be attributed, at least in part, to the historical absence of suitablemigration data for the country as a whole The definition of ‘migration’ receives someattention, and it is shown that in this book ‘migration’ refers to those movements thatinvolve a change in the usual place of residence from one magisterial district to another Theproblems with migration intervals are discussed, and a rationale is provided for the adoption

of the period 1992–96 as the most appropriate migration period for the majority of analysescontained in the book Chapter 2 also covers the need for more localised surveys to capturepatterns of residential mobility in the context of such area-specific studies

Chapter 3 discusses population redistribution patterns and trends In South Africa andelsewhere, urbanisation levels increased steadily during the 20th century and, by 1996,almost 54 per cent of the country’s population lived in urban areas (defined as those placeswith an urban form of local government) However, great variations were observed amongthe nine provinces, with urbanisation levels ranging from a low of 11 per cent in Limpopo(previously known as the Northern Province) to 97 per cent in Gauteng The latter was also

by far the most preferred destination in inter-provincial migration between 1992 and 1996,followed by the Western Cape, Mpumalanga and North West

Chapter 4 provides general profiles of migrants (and, by default, non-migrants) It isshown that only about one quarter of the total population has ever migrated, and that therehave been surprisingly few changes in the level of migration between 1975–80 and 1992–96.Migration in South Africa is clearly selective in terms of age, and there are some importantdifferences in migration levels among the various employment and educational categories in

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

the population A multivariate profile of migrants (versus non-migrants) shows thatMpumalanga, Gauteng and the Western Cape have the highest proportions of formermigrants when the effects of other variables are eliminated The multivariate profile alsoshows that people living in shacks and the homeless were generally much more migratorythan those living in traditional dwellings and formal houses and flats.

Chapter 5 provides guidelines for future censuses and sample surveys dealing withmigration

Notes

1 Like almost all countries exhibiting a similar level of development, South Africa does not maintain a rigorous population register of where people currently reside and have moved from.

2 The three magisterial districts with the highest densities were predominantly ‘township’ areas situated in each of

the three main metropoles: Soweto in Gauteng (10 625 persons per square kilometre), Umlazi in Natal (7 426 per km 2 ), and Mitchells Plain in the Western Cape (6 657 per km 2 ).

KwaZulu-3 These former homeland areas are spread over seven provinces, namely the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Limpopo (formerly known as the Northern Province), Mpumalanga, North West and the Northern Cape (see Map 1.1).

Box 1 Migration questions asked during Census ’96

Section A: In respect of each household member:

1.1 Was (the person) born in South Africa? (Include the former TBVC states –

Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda, Ciskei)

1 = Yes

2 = No

1.2 (If ‘No’) In what country was the person born?

Write in the name of the country

MORE THAN A MONTH each year to work or to seek work.)

1 = Yes

2 = No

3.1 Is this DWELLING (e.g house, room, shack, flat) the place where (the person)

usually lives, i.e where (the person) spends at least four nights per week?

1 = Yes

2 = No

3.2 (If ‘No’) Where does (this person) usually live?

Name of suburb/village/settlement: Name of city/town/farm/tribal authority: Name of magisterial district:

If not South Africa, please state name of country:

4.1 In which year did (the person) move to the DWELLING (e.g house, room, shack, flat) where he/she usually lives?

Write in the year that he/she moved 19

OR

(Lived in the dwelling since birth) 4.2 (For the person who has moved)

From where did (the person) move? (Before moving into the dwelling where

he/she usually lives) Name of suburb/village/settlement: Name of city/town/farm/tribal authority: Name of magisterial district: …… ……

If not South Africa, please state name of country: …… … …

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

Section B: In respect of the entire household:

are away for a month or more because they are migrant workers? (A migrant

worker is someone who is absent from home for more than a month each year

to work or to seek work.)

If not South Africa, state name of country:

C H A P T E R T W OLiterature review

THERE IS LITTLEthat is certain about migration trends in South Africa Until now analysesbased on a comprehensive profile of the total population have not been possible Theemphasis has fallen on localised studies and/or on analyses of particular segments of thepopulation, thus limiting the collective understanding of migration/non-migration and theability to generalise findings to the national or even provincial level In particular, the causes

of internal migration, the processes involved and, to some extent, their consequences arepoorly understood This book aims to help fill this information gap As censuses have theirshortcomings, particularly on attitudinal data, they are unable to make up the entireinformation backlog This means that sample surveys will still be needed although not todraw out the context in which migration takes place This can be derived from the migrationdata generated by Census ’96 and Census 2001

Current status of migration research

In the past, empirical migration research tended to be restricted to distinct spatial entities,frequently the metropolitan areas (see, for example, Kok, 1984; Kok, Hofmeyr &Gelderblom, 1986; Möller, 1986; Kok, 1988; Seekings, Graaff & Joubert, 1990; Botes, Krige

& Wessels, 1991; Emmett, 1992; Crankshaw & Hart, 1990; Dewar, Rosmarin & Watson, 1991;Crankshaw, Heron & Hart, 1992; Mears & Levin, 1994; Cross, Bekker & Eva, 1999) Morelimited research was conducted in rural areas and towns (e.g Platzky & Walker, 1985; Graaff,1986; Spiegel, 1987; Rule & Wills, 1989; Saayman et al 1997; Bekker, 1999) Apart frombeing localised, these studies often focused on particular components of the population –components generally defined by migratory behaviour A comprehensive overview ofmigration therefore awaited the 1996 census results

Definitions

What is ‘migration’? Standing (1984), Kok (1999) and others note the liveliness of the debate

on the concept ‘migration’ Hence, defining migration is a complex issue As no singledefinition can automatically be applied in all contexts, typological approaches are used tosupplement the suggested definitions

When ‘migration’ is used with respect to human population, reference is usually made

to a range of patterns of movement In the contemporary South African context the term isused to reflect major social changes like the movement of people from rural to urban areas.This dynamic is widely believed to drive urbanisation In South Africa, migration is also

associated with labour migration – the oscillation of workers between their ‘homes’ anddistant employment opportunities From a planning perspective, it would be useful toindicate the relative importance of rural-to-urban migration and labour migration in settingthe development landscape However, comparisons of the two are complicated by the factthat very different populations and activities are involved As this book examines both

‘migration’ and ‘labour migration’, the two major components of migration in South Africa,they are defined below

In the context of development in South Africa, Kok (1999) suggested a typology ofspatial mobility based on two key dimensions, namely ‘time’ and ‘space’ (see Table 2.1) Histypology encompasses both circulatory and more ‘permanent’ moves (see Gelderblom &Kok, 1994:52), but is regarded as partial because not all types of mobility are considered, i.e.the examples listed in the second column of Table 2.1 are far from exhaustive For instance,mobility types such as those mentioned by Standing (1984:38–53) and Van de Walle(1982:92) are not considered.1

Table 2.1: A suggested (partial) typology of spatial mobility encompassing both circulation and more ‘permanent’ moves, and incorporating the more flexible approaches to defining migration

Broad Example Temporal’ dimension ‘Spatial’ dimension Classification category Description Change in Description Migration-

place of defining residence? boundary

A move taking place

at the beginning or end of an extended migrant-labour period

Short or long-term residence at place of destination

Short or distance moves Short or long- distance moves

Short or distance moves

Short or distance moves Short or long- distance moves

* Kubat (1976:11) and Standing (1984:38-39) refer to the type of moves undertaken by nomads, ‘gatherers’ and wanderers, among others, as ‘transilient’

‘Transilient’ mobility*

Short-term mobility Daily commuting Local weekly commuting

Short-term labour migration Local long-term labour mobility Long-term labour migration

‘Permanent’ migration Residential mobility

Nomads,

‘gatherers’ and wanderers Shopping trips and tourist trips Daily work trips Trips home to visit,

or to return to place

of employment after

a period of stay (e.g a week or weekend) at the origin of the move Long-term migrant labour absences (usually of longer than a week at a time) from home Change of perma- nent residence (‘moving home’)

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

The typology suggested by Kok has been informed by various sources, such as Standing(1984:38–53) and Van de Walle (1982:92) It also includes the suggestion by Pressat andWilson (1985:144) that tourist trips (irrespective of the distance) and nomadic movementsshould be classified as ‘circulation’ Furthermore, Skeldon’s (1990:11) suggestion thatcommuting and other temporary movements can be referred to as ‘circulation’ was alsoincorporated The suggested typology takes account of southern Africa’s particularcircumstances whereby long-distance commuting and labour migration are known to form

a significant proportion of the spectrum of spatial movement (cf Gelderblom & Kok,1994:105–6)

Kok’s (1999) typology does not require a change in the usual place of residence of the

subject However, ‘migration’ requires that a change of residence (and not necessarily a change

in usual address) must accompany the crossing of the boundary of a migration-defining area.

The three shaded cells in the last column of Table 2.1 depict the only migratory moves thatmeet both these ‘time’ and ‘distance’ requirements These migration types are ‘short-termlabour migration’ (see the topmost shaded cell in the last column of Table 2.1), ‘long-termlabour migration’ (third cell from the bottom in the last column), and ‘permanent migration’(second-last cell in the last column) The non-shaded cells in the top part of the last columnencompass forms of spatial mobility that can only be described as forms of circulation Thevery last cell in the table deals with ‘residential mobility’, i.e ‘intra-area’ moves, which do notqualify as migration even though they do involve a change of residence

In terms of this partial typology it seems fair to suggest that one should, ideally, define

migration formally as the crossing of the boundary of a predefined spatial unit by persons involved

in a change of residence This definition encompasses all the requirements referred to by Kok

(1999) The ‘spatial unit’ refers to the particular study’s ‘migration-defining areas’, whichcould be political, administrative or other appropriate spatial entities As census results onplace of origin are currently restricted to magisterial districts,2‘migration-defining areas’ hereare taken to be the magisterial districts as demarcated for Census ’96

Census ’96 also uses the concept of ‘usual residence’ to distinguish ‘permanent’ residentsfrom visitors Consequently, as far as this analysis is concerned, Kok’s (1999) suggested(partial) typology needs to be further restricted Although such a restriction is quitejustifiable in terms of the census requirements, it complicates the analysis In particular itprompts the adoption of at least one supplementary category of migration – ‘labourmigration’ Thus for the purpose of this book, ‘migration’ or ‘migratory move’ is defined as:

a change in the magisterial district of usual residence.

A residential move within the same district (‘residential mobility’) is therefore excluded, asare temporary movements (e.g visits) between districts Consequently, ‘migration’ must bedistinguished from ‘labour migration’, which – in terms of the typology discussed earlier –represents a subset of ‘migration’ According to the census office’s definition, a ‘labourmigrant’ is:

an individual … who is absent from home (or country) for more than one month of a year for

the purpose of finding work or working This could be a mineworker, a factory worker or even

a gardener or domestic worker

Thus, ‘migration’ or a ‘migratory move’ is restricted to the ‘permanent’ or ‘semi-permanent’movement of households and individuals (sometimes also within a defined time period),and ‘labour migration’ to the periodic movement of individuals (also during such a definedperiod, where applicable) Labour migrants are almost by definition compelled to migratesemi-permanently and unaccompanied by their households.

Migration ‘origin’ and ‘destination’

Every residential move has an origin or source (which is the place from where the personmoves) and a destination (i.e the place where the specific move ends) For a move to beclassified as ‘migration’, the origin and destination of a residential move can only be indifferent migration-defining areas within the same country or in different countries

Internal migration, ‘in-migrant’ and ‘out-migrant’

In virtually all of the analyses that follow, both the origin and destination of a specificmigratory move are in the same country (South Africa), thus the moves constitute internalmigration If the origin and destination are in the same country, the person who migratesfrom a particular district is called an out-migrant from that area, and simultaneously he orshe is an in-migrant into the area of destination When reference is made to internationalmigration the respective terms used are immigration and emigration (and immigrant andemigrant)

‘Residential mobility’, ‘circulation’ and ‘commuting’

If the origin and destination of a residential move are in the same country and in the same(migration-defining) area, the move is not regarded as migration but rather as residentialmobility The term ‘residential mobility’ is reserved for those moves that involve a change ofresidence If a move involves no change of residence, it is neither migration nor residentialmobility, but some or other form of circulation If such a circulatory move takes placerepeatedly between the person’s place of residence and his/her place of work, it is known ascommuting (on a daily, weekly or monthly basis)

Data adequacy, reliability and appropriateness

Peter Morrison acknowledges the many practical problems experienced by migrationresearchers because they rarely have the luxury of dealing with large, disaggregated data setsfocused on their analytical requirements ‘Instead they must content themselves with data

that only partly satisfy their conceptual requirements’ (Morrison, c 1980:8) He goes on to

warn that limitations of this nature may not only inhibit the development of theory but alsodistort observation, and, moreover, that the relationship between concept and measurement can become perverse if analysts start manipulating concepts to fit the availabledata It is necessary, instead, to adapt the available data to the conceptual requirements

is no fundamental reason for accepting the boundary definition of migration, and thedefinition and statistical material would be closer to reality if we recorded all changes ofresidence’ (1974:5) In his view, a typology of spatial mobility can best be developed if allresidential moves are considered as migration (1974:6) Rather surprisingly, though, aftercriticising the use of ‘boundary definitions’ in migration, he actually proposes the use of

‘migration-defining areas’ This happens when he introduces his own set of requirements forappropriate spatial units in migration research ‘It is essential to define an area of sufficientsize to include enough migrants to justify analysis of their characteristics, and a compromisemust be made between small areas desirable for homogeneity and large areas desirable forthe inclusion of an adequate number of migrants’ (1974:7)

One can ascribe Willis’s inconsistency to the difficulty of getting rid of the concept of

‘migration-defining areas’ The solution may therefore lie in the use of adequately small andhomogeneous spatial units If the areas are kept as small as possible, they can, as the occasionrequires, be consolidated into larger spatial units In the absence of more detailed informationthe magisterial district will seemingly satisfy Willis’s requirements mentioned above

This raises another important consideration in favour of the use of some form of

‘migration-defining areas’, namely the need for an unambiguous specification of the originand destination of a move The place from which a move is made (origin) is often defined

in broad terms, while the data on the area in which a move terminates (destination) areoften very detailed (United Nations, 1970:1) The latter is of course only valid when dealingwith the last move, i.e in which the destination was the place where the census/survey tookplace The definition of the area of origin depends on the nature of the information available

to the researcher (United Nations, 1970:2) In the case of the recent South African based migration data, researchers are currently able, at best, to combine enumerator-areadata of the destination of the last move with the magisterial district of the area of origin.Statistics South Africa is contemplating an improvement of the data to better reflect theactual place of origin (in terms of ‘place name’) but, to date, the data set containing thesecodes has not been made available This book thus deals exclusively with magisterial districts

census-as the smallest spatial units of analysis

Theories and models of the causes of migration

Migration theory can be traced back to Ernest-George Ravenstein’s The Laws of Migration,

published during the latter half of the 19th century (1885–89), which made him ‘theundisputed father of the modern thinking about migration’ (Arango, 2000:284) Anotherseminal work, published in the early 20th century, was that of William Thomas and Florian

Znaniecki, called The Polish Peasant in Europe and America (1918–20) that, according to Arango

(2000:284), was ‘probably the most impressive book ever written on the subject of migration’.The contributions on the application of the gravity concept in migration by Steward(1941) and Zipf (1946) were of great importance in the development of migrationmodelling Another historically important publication was the book by Peter Rossi, called

Why Families Move (1950), dealing with the causes of intra-urban mobility.

The purpose of this section, however, is not to give an historical overview of thedevelopment of migration theory Rather, it is important here to concentrate on the more

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

recent contributions to our current understanding of migration processes, and especiallythose dealing with the causes of these processes In this regard the very importantcontributions of scholars such as Gordon De Jong (from the early 1980s up to the present)and Douglas Massey (starting in the early 1990s and still continuing) are worth mentioning.

As far as the determinants of migration are concerned, it may be useful to distinguishbetween economic and non-economic causes The next two sections contain a brief review

of the roles of these factors and of the variables that are used to analyse them The first

section – based largely on a literature review by Massey et al (1993) – speaks to the prevailing

economic theories/models, while the second section addresses the non-economic models ofmigration The data used in this book does not provide an opportunity to test these theories,and this review is therefore intended merely to orientate the reader to the theoretical issuesinvolved in migration research

Economic factors that cause migration

Much has been written about the economic causes of migration and it has been suggestedthat these are the only real root causes of migration This is probably true in some cases butwhen applied to the population in general it implies that people’s migratory moves aredictated almost exclusively by economic considerations, and therefore economicincentives/disincentives should be sufficient to cause/prevent migration It is therefore more

appropriate to view migration in the larger context of development (economic and

otherwise) As Skeldon (1990:150) points out, ‘patterns of mobility are … intimately related

to the overall process of development and any explanation of mobility becomes in a sense

an explanation of development The logic of uneven development in effect causes migration.’The recent review of migration literature by Massey et al (1993) has contributed to abetter understanding of the theoretical framework within which the economic causes ofmigration come to the fore This review forms the basis of the brief discussion of theeconomic factors to be presented here.3Massey et al differentiated between the theoriesaccounting for the initiation of migration and those explaining the persistence of migrationacross space and time Although the emphasis in their review is on international migration,there is no convincing reason why some (if not all) of these theories would not apply tointernal migration

Massey et al (1993) identify four theoretically derived causes of international migration:neo-classical economics, ‘new economics of migration’, dual labour-market theory, andworld systems theory

Neo-classical economics

This theory, together with its extensions, suggests that migration (both internal andinternational) is caused by geographic differences in labour supply and demand, and by theresultant wage differentials Key assumptions of this theory are that the elimination of wagedifferentials will end the movement of labour, and that migration will cease in the absence

of such differentials Individual actors are assumed to estimate the costs and benefits ofmoving to alternative locations, and migrate to the area ‘where the expected discounted netreturns are greatest over some time horizon’ (Massey et al., 1993:433–4)

The micro-economic model of individual choice (that was first formulated by MichaelTodaro, 1969, 1976), combined with the concepts of ‘human capital’ (developed by LarrySjaastad) and to some extent also ‘place utility’ (developed by Julian Wolpert), corresponds

to the macro-economic model described above DaVanzo (1981) gives a fairly thoroughdescription of the micro-economic model She explains that the utilities to be obtained inalternative localities are weighed against the utilities in the current place of residence and thecost of moving to a particular destination A move will only be considered if the ‘presentvalue’ of a move to a particular destination is positive, and the actual move will take place tothat destination where the present value is the greatest In her view, utility cannot be directlymeasured in empirical research Although this is in principle a serious drawback, DaVanzo’sconclusions in this regard indicate the limited utility of the model with respect to modellingand analysing migration However, the suggestions regarding expectancies – as formulated

by De Jong and Fawcett (1981) – may be used to help solve this measurement problem Thevariables used in the testing of these theories include:

‘Expected income’, which is defined as the probability of employment (i.e one minus theunemployment rate) multiplied by the mean income of the economic sector a rationalactor may contemplate working in (Massey et al., 1994:701) In practice this predictor cantake the form of an interaction term that cross-multiplies wages and employmentopportunities ‘A statistical test for the significance of this interaction term, compared to

a regression model where real wages alone appear, constitutes a critical test comparisonbetween the Ranis-Fei and the Todaro versions of neo-classical theory’ (Massey et al.,1993:455)

‘Net gain from migration’ is ‘the difference between incomes expected at origin anddestination, when summed and discounted over some time horizon and added to the negativecosts of movement’ (Massey et al., 1994:701) This involves a relatively complex calculation.For a detailed discussion of the operationalisation of neo-classical economics in empiricalmigration research, see Massey and Espinosa (1997:947–51)

‘New economics of migration’

Oded Stark and others (quoted by Massey et al., 1993) suggested that migration decisionsare seldom taken by isolated individuals (an assumption central to the micro-economicperspective), but rather by families or households Under the new-economics regime,decision-making is seen to take place in the context of household ‘risk minimisation’(instead of the notion of individual ‘income maximisation’ as proposed by neo-classicaleconomics) Unlike individuals, households can control economic risks by diversifying theallocation of household resources like family labour Some family members may be assignedlocal jobs and other economic activities, while others, perhaps with more appropriate skills,may be sent to work in more distant labour markets ‘In the event that local economicconditions deteriorate and activities fail to bring in sufficient income, the household can rely

on migrant remittances for support’ (Massey et al., 1993:436) As such, the theory

‘recognizes that in many settings, particularly in the developing world, markets for capital,futures and insurance may be absent, imperfect or inaccessible In order to self-insure againstrisks to income, production and poverty, or to gain access to scarce investment capital,

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

households send one or more workers to foreign labor markets’ (Massey et al., 1994:711).Given the relatively higher wages in the industrial economy, migration offers a particularlyattractive and effective strategy for minimising risks and overcoming capital constraints(Massey et al., 1994) However, the model does not preclude migration to areas with aminimal (or even a negative) wage differential.

A key assumption of the ‘new economics of migration’ is the notion that wagedifferentials are not necessary conditions for migration to occur, because households mayhave incentives to diversify risks through migration even in the absence of wage differentials

Another important component of this assumption is that of relative income, which implies

that migration will occur not only to improve absolute income, but also to increase thehousehold’s income relative to other households in the community (Massey et al., 1993) Inother words, households attempt to ameliorate their sense of ‘relative deprivation’ throughmigration A study in Mexico by Oded Stark and Edward Taylor showed, however, thatinternal migration might ameliorate relative deprivation much less than internationalmigration does This is because internal migrants merely end up substituting one (mainlythe rural) reference group for another (the urban one), since both are within a similar social,cultural and economic setting (Massey et al., 1994)

This emphasis in the ‘new economics’ (or ‘household economics’) on the household asthe decision-making unit has been criticised by Spiegel (1987) and others Some of the keypoints of criticism are that the concept does not deal sufficiently with the important matter

of inter-household transfers – especially in the context of fluidity in household composition(Spiegel, 1986) The concept is seen to assume rather simplistically that all individualswithin the household have the same interests (see Gelderblom & Kok, 1994:47–52) Debatesregarding the household as the migration decision-making unit are therefore nowhere near

a resolution in the African context, as elsewhere

The variable central to analysis within the ‘new economics’ paradigm (apart from

‘absolute income’) is ‘relative income’, which has also been expressed as ‘relativedeprivation’ Given the problems surrounding income data at the individual level, a multi-level statistical model should be constructed that ‘not only contains the usual individual andhousehold-level predictor variables, but also incorporates the community characteristic ofincome inequality, or an operational measure of relative income’ (Massey et al., 1993:458).Massey et al (1994:714) refer to the operationalisation of the concept of ‘relativedeprivation’ in a study by Stark and Taylor There the concept was defined (for a givenhousehold) as the proportion of households with incomes greater than the income of thespecific household, multiplied by the average amount by which these incomes exceed thathousehold’s Massey and Espinosa (1997:953–4) discuss the empirical application of thismodel in the context of Mexico-United States migration

Dual (segmented) labour-market theory

While the two models above are essentially micro-level rational choice (decision) models,dual labour market theory argues that migration stems from the intrinsic labour demands ofindustrial economies (Massey et al., 1993) The theory takes cognisance of structuralinflation, job motivation, economic dualism and the demography of labour supply

‘Structural inflation’ is said to occur when employers raise wages at the bottom of theoccupational hierarchy in order to attract workers for unskilled jobs Such actions upsetsocially defined relationships between status and remuneration, creating strong pressuresfor corresponding wage increases at other levels of the hierarchy (Massey et al., 1993).

‘Motivational problems’ arise at the bottom of the job hierarchy because of the generalabsence of avenues for upward mobility This structural problem is presented asinescapable because there will always be a bottom level in the labour market ‘Whatemployers need are workers who view bottom-level jobs simply as a means to the end ofearning money, and for whom employment is reduced solely to income, with noimplications for status or prestige’ (Massey et al., 1993:441–2) Migrants (and labourmigrants in particular) often satisfy this need Most migrant workers start off as targetearners who seek to earn money for specific goals – mainly to improve their status orsecurity at home (i.e place of origin) Their aspirations are therefore relatively limitedcompared to those of native workers

‘Economic dualism’ is part and parcel of bifurcated labour markets in industrialeconomies Workers occupying capital-intensive jobs are generally skilled and normallywork with costly capital investments Their jobs are relatively stable compared to those inthe labour-intensive sector where workers hold unstable, unskilled jobs This leads to asegmented labour market structure, where ‘low wages, unstable conditions, and the lack

of reasonable prospects for mobility … make it difficult to attract native workers who areinstead drawn into the … capital-intensive sector, where wages are higher, jobs are moresecure, and there is a possibility of occupational improvement’ (Massey et al., 1993:443).Employers therefore turn to migrants to fill the shortfall in labour-intensive jobs.Empirical research in North America has confirmed that urban labour markets are infact segmented This research also shows that cities with large migrant populations have,apart from the capital-intensive sector and the labour-intensive sector, a third sector,namely the ‘migrant enclave’ (Massey et al., 1994) It may be better, therefore, to refer inmore generic terms to ‘segmented’ rather than ‘dual’ labour markets

The ‘ demography of labour supply’ perspective focuses on a decline in participation bywomen in low-wage labour and on a decline in fertility in industrialised countries.Collectively and individually these declines reduce the supply of those willing to work forlow wages – like teenagers ‘ The imbalance between the structural demand for entry-levelworkers and the limited supply of such workers has increased the underlying, long-rundemand for immigrants’ (Massey et al., 1993:443)

The segmented labour market theory therefore states that labour migration is driven, and since the demand for migrant workers results from the structural needs of theindustrial economy, wage differentials are neither necessary nor sufficient to cause labourmigration to occur (Massey et al., 1993:444)

demand-An integral part of labour market segmentation is ‘occupational specialisation’, whichhas been ‘traditionally associated with migration and, in effect, is one of the principal causes

of human movement … The extension of regional specialisms, the sallying forth of labourrecruiters for particular occupations, and the transfer of personnel by corporations signify an

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

intimate and long-standing relationship between mobility and occupation that has oftenbeen ignored in the analysis of the causes of migration’ (Skeldon, 1990:142).

Massey et al (1993:458) state that it is difficult to verify the segmented labour marketstructure empirically Since the model argues that migration is driven by conditions of labourdemand rather than supply, they suggest that one should obtain a higher degree ofexplanatory power among the indicators relating to conditions in receiving regions thanthose in sending regions ‘If real wages and employment conditions are entered into anequation predicting movement between Turkey and Germany, for example, Germanindicators should dominate in terms of predictive power’ (Massey et al., 1993:459)

Massey and Espinosa (1997:954–5) describe the preparation of data for an empiricalapplication of this model

World systems theory

In this theory, the penetration of capitalist economic relations into peripheral non-capitalisteconomies is seen to create a mobile population that is prone to migrate Migration is anatural result of the disruptions and dislocations that accompany capitalist expansion Asland, raw materials and labour within the peripheral regions come under the influence andcontrol of markets, people inevitably migrate (Massey et al., 1993:443, 445)

Capitalist economic relations result in the commercialisation and mechanisation ofagriculture, and in land consolidation that ‘destroys traditional systems of land tenure based oninheritance and common rights of usufruct’ This displaces people from the land (Massey et al.,1993:443, 445) Capitalists in core regions also ensure that improvements are made to expandtransportation and communication links to and from the peripheral regions where they haveinvested These links facilitate not only the movement of goods, information and capital, but also the movement of people by reducing transport and communication costs (Massey et al., 1993:446)

The offer of wages to former peasants and the creation of incipient labour markets(fostered by individualism, private gain and social change) also promote labour migration

in developing regions The demand for factory workers strengthens the local labour market.Because female workers are in greater demand than male workers, the resulting feminisation

of the workforce limits the local employment opportunities for men ‘ The insertion offoreign-owned factories into peripheral regions thus undermines the peasant economy byproducing goods that compete with those made locally; by feminising the workforce withoutproviding factory-based employment opportunities for men; and by socialising women forindustrial work and modern consumption, albeit without providing a lifetime incomecapable of meeting these needs The result is the creation of a population that is socially andeconomically uprooted and prone to migration’ (Massey et al., 1993:446)

Although this process echoes the situation in developing countries such as South Africa,

it also takes place in the context of economic globalisation, where ‘global cities’ (especiallythose of the United States, Europe and the Pacific) show structural characteristics that create

a strong demand for migrant labour (Massey et al., 1993:446–7)

Massey and Espinosa (1997:955) point out that world systems theory (like the ‘neweconomics of migration’) is linked to community-level indicators The model describes out-migration as originating in communities ‘that are in the throes of economic development

rather than in backward, stagnant areas disconnected from national and internationalmarkets’ Massey and Espinosa expected, for example, that the probability of emigration tothe United States would be greater in those Mexican communities where wage rates, levels

of self-employment and the proportion of women employed in manufacturing were higher,and where roads, schools and banks had already been established They also measuredcapitalist penetration of Mexico by the rate of growth in direct foreign investment

However, Skeldon (1990:134) warns against ‘a situation in which facts prove ineffectual

against the armour of an a priori assumption’ He is particularly concerned about the

ideology-based determinism implied by the concept ‘penetration of capitalism’ instead of itbeing viewed as ‘a process with particular and variable consequences’

The ‘penetration of capitalism’ may also convey the idea that the society being affected bythe expansionary power was static and unchanging, just waiting to be galvanized throughcontact with the West One of the greatest myths about Africa is that it contained myriadisolated self-sufficient groups awaiting transformation by the advent of colonialists … It

is important to stress that these societies were not simply passive acceptors of a new way

of life but that they resisted, modified and manipulated what was being offered them orimposed upon them (Skeldon, 1990:135)

Economic factors that perpetuate migration

The following theoretical contributions, according to Massey et al (1993), explain why

international migration, once started, seems to be perpetuated indefinitely: institutional

theory, cumulative causation and migration systems theory.4These are, obviously, derivedpredominantly from an economic perspective of international migration

Institutional theory

Once international migration has begun private institutions and voluntary organisationsarise to satisfy the demand created by the imbalance between the large number of peoplewho seek entry into capital-rich countries and the limited number of immigrant visas thesecountries typically offer This imbalance, and the barriers that core countries erect to keeppeople out, create a lucrative economic niche for entrepreneurs and institutions dedicated topromoting international movement for profit, leading to a black market in migration(Massey et al., 1993:450)

The institutional developments described by Massey and his co-authors are important inperpetuating international migration, and the institutionalisation becomes more and moreindependent of the factors that originally caused the migration This theory is clearly relevant

in the case of international migration, but it may also play a role in some internal migration(especially where closed-city measures apply, such as South Africa’s influx control policyunder apartheid)

migration decisions are made, typically in ways that make additional movement more likely’(Massey et al., 1993:451).

A persistent gap in theories to explain migration is ‘the relative lack of behaviouralstudies which provide a dynamic vs a static comparison of migration move-stay decisionalternatives One example of a dynamic research focus is cumulative-cause processes such as

“chain migration” ’ (De Jong, 2000:307)

Migration systems theory

According to Massey et al (1993), migration systems are relatively intense and stableexchanges of goods, capital and people between certain areas (e.g countries) and lessintense/stable exchanges between others An international migration system typicallyincludes a core receiving country or group of countries, and a set of specific sendingcountries linked to the receiving country/countries by unusually large flows of immigrants(Fawcett & Zlotnik, quoted in Massey et al., 1993:454)

A danger in applying these theories is that migration can become ‘an independentvariable which not only regulates other societal change but ultimately controls itself’(Skeldon, 1990:132) The macro-level economic factors highlighted above tend to lead to aconclusion that migration is inevitable, and that its causes do not require scholarly debate.This is a very narrow and ill-conceived conceptualisation of a dynamic process It isimportant to understand that migration is also dependent on other factors But what arethese factors, and how do they influence population movement? A partial answer to thesequestions is suggested in the next section, which deals with the non-economic factorscausing migration

The above perspectives have more in common than their focus on economic forcessuggests, and they predispose analysts to seeing migration in particular ways Internationally,migration is expected to be from the South to the North Within countries it is expected to

be from low-wage, rural hinterlands to urban heartlands In South Africa labour migrants arealso seen to be primarily black and male

Economistic approaches like those above have had an enduring effect on theunderstanding of migration in South Africa The conceptual dominance of these approacheshas resulted in a strong association of migrants with poverty Migrant-sending areas areidentified with the former homelands and receiving areas with the metropoles Subsequent

chapters will show the relative importance of migration between urban areas vis-à-vis

rural-urban migration The empirical evidence as to who is most inclined to migrate challengesand undermines the analytical utility of economistic approaches Conceptual frameworksthat better reflect the empirical evidence to hand are called for and may be offered by theincorporation of non-economic factors

Non-economic factors that cause migration

The migration literature has identified a large number of salient non-economic factorscausing internal migration Some of these are covered in this section It must be stated fromthe outset that the relevance of such additional factors cannot be determined from the data

currently at hand This calls for further empirical research Although economic motivesappear to be a major causative factor in migration, they are unable to explain migrationdecision-making on the whole (see Shaw, 1975) Similarly, the emphasis on structuraldeterminants/correlates (which are mainly economic) also undermines the search for a morebalanced explanation of migration processes ‘ The disadvantage of macro-level structuralapproaches is that the explanations developed tend to be deterministic … The broadperspective can flatten historical specificities in favour of a nạve globalism’ (Skeldon,1990:133).

Value-expectancy model of migration

From the work by De Jong and Fawcett (1981), Gardner (1981) and many others whoapplied the value-expectancy model empirically (in the Philippines, Romania, Thailand andSouth Africa)5, it is clear that the most important micro-, meso- and macro-level causes ofmigration operate indirectly via people’s values and expectations This takes place within acausal framework Little evidence of a strong direct link between micro-, meso- and macro-level factors (including economic factors) and the decision to migrate has been found As aresult, the point of departure here is the micro-level causal framework suggested by De Jongand Fawcett (1981).6 This requires a clear understanding of the causal framework of theextended value-expectancy model

De Jong and Fawcett (1981:54) developed the causal model depicted in Figure 2.1 They statethat the following should be noted:

The family/household should be treated as a unit, with separate analyses for the moves

of individual members (e.g single-adult siblings) and family units

The expected strength of the explanatory path is indicated in the graphic on page 23 Thethick, solid lines indicate strong causal relationships, the thin, solid lines show moderatedirect linkages, and the thin, dotted lines show weak causal linkages

The basic components of the value-expectancy model are goals (values or objectives) andexpectancies (subjective probabilities):

‘Values’ can be determined empirically by getting respondents to rate them in terms ofimportance (to obtain one part of the ‘value’ component), and the dimensions for thevalues and expectancies can be obtained through multivariate statistical techniques such

as factor analysis The centrality of particular (hypothesised or empirically derived)values in a personal value system can be determined, as well as their pervasiveness acrossdifferent behavioural domains and their salience in particular contexts

‘Expectancies’ can be measured by asking respondents to assess people’s chances ofattaining various goals in their current place of residence and in alternativedestinations ‘Expectancies might be measured with additional dimensions also, e.g.whether outcomes pertain to self or others, whether results are expectedimmediately or in the longer term The significance of these dimensions inmigration behavior is apparent, as in the case of a household head who decides on

a move primarily for the long-term educational and other opportunities that will beavailable to his [or her] children’ (De Jong & Fawcett, 1981:52)

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa

From the available literature on the reasons for migration, De Jong and Fawcett (1981:49) identified ‘conceptual categories’ that seem to ‘represent psychologicallymeaningful clusters’ These are wealth, status, comfort, stimulation, autonomy,affiliation and morality.

The factor scores of both the ‘value’ and ‘expectancy’ components can then be used tocalculate the value-expectancy scores and the strength of the intention to migrate inrespect of the place of origin and one or more possible destinations

Pairs of the value-expectancy components have a multiplicative relationship for a specificfactor (dimension) or item, and the products are summed over all the factors/items beingconsidered in order to obtain the strength of the ‘migration behavioural intentions’,which is given by the formula:

MI = ∑ V i • E i

where: MI = strength of the migration intentions;

V i = value of the outcome of item i to the person concerned; and

E i = the expectation that migration will lead to the desired outcome in respect

of item i.

Expectancy should be measured for the present place of residence as well as alternativelocations

Behaviour is not governed by motivational factors only and since migration is also facilitated

or constrained by environmental and cultural factors (see Gardner, 1981), it is necessary tointegrate multi-level determinants (i.e socio-cultural, demographic, personal and economicfactors) with the value-expectancy model of migration decision-making

Migration behaviour is hypothesised to be the result of (1) the strength of the expectancy-derived intentions to move, (2) the indirect influences of backgroundindividual and area factors, and (3) the modifying effects of constraints and facilitatorsthat become salient during the process of migration decision-making (De Jong & Fawcett,1981:56)

value-From the causal pattern depicted in Figure 2.1 it should be clear that a large number of economic (and, of course, economic) variables could contribute to explaining the model.These typically include individual and household demographic characteristics, societal andcultural norms, personal traits, opportunity structure differentials between areas,information about areas, unanticipated constraints and in situ adjustments

non-Individual and household demographic characteristics

These are the most frequently described differentiating factors in migration behaviour Thiscategory may include such migration correlates as life-cycle variables, family and householdcharacteristics, factors associated with socio-economic status, the various employment-unemployment differentials, home-ownership, the extent of household crowding, ethnicdifferences, years in the community and past migration history

These factors can be seen to summarise the “compositional thesis” of populations, somewith higher and some with lower propensities to move, which help explain why certainareas have higher migration rates than other areas (De Jong & Fawcett, 1981:53).

Viewed from a micro-level perspective, these characteristics are often treated as motivationsfor migration ‘For example, age differences in migration have been interpreted as indices ofemployment-related incentives, the migration-homeownership correlation as an index ofcommunity and family ties, and the relationship between life cycle and migration reflectingthe motive for more comfortable housing’ (De Jong & Fawcett, 1981:53) Instead of treatingthem in this way, one should regard these and other similar migration-differential variables

as predictors of the values and expectancies that form the main intervening variables for theanalysis of migration intentions and behaviour

Societal and cultural norms

These form a second broad category hypothesised to affect migration values andexpectancies Community norms and gender roles have been shown to affect migrationpatterns of demographic sub-groups For example, norms concerning marriage-relatedmigration often dictate a move by one party, usually the woman, while in other societies thenew family forms an independent household, which necessitates a move by both parties.Young people may be required to migrate in pursuit of an education or to earn money forremittances to help meet family needs ‘ The existence of such norms, we argue, would bereflected in personal values and expectancies; that is, the norms will be internalised to someextent’ (De Jong & Fawcett, 1981:55)

Migration expectations operate in the context of social norms and gender roles Socialnorms

… are critical elements in translating expectations into behavioural intentions andsubsequent action … [G]ender has a core influence on the statuses of males and females,their roles and stages in the life cycle These help determine people’s position in societyand therefore the opportunities women and men have to consider in moving to the pre-migration stage (De Jong, 2000:307)

De Jong and Fawcett (1981:55) admit that it is difficult to obtain satisfactory measures ofnorms, although cross-cultural comparative studies can be used to predict different ‘valuehierarchies’

Personal traits

Personality traits such as risk-taking ability, adaptability to change and the ability to producethe desired result (efficacy) are another set of predictors for values, expectancies andmigration A general problem with this category is that much of the research on risk takingand similar personal characteristics ‘… is flawed by the use of education or some other social

or economic characteristic as a proxy measure for personal traits’ (De Jong & Fawcett,1981:55) Kok (1988) developed and used a scale of risk-taking propensity and found that

Post-apartheid patterns of internal migration in South Africa