Information Technology and the Forest Sector ppt

Edited by Lauri Hetemäki and Sten NilssonReport by the IUFRO Task Force on “Information Technology and the Forest Sector” Task Force Partners: - International Union of Forest Research Or

Edited by Lauri Hetemäki and Sten Nilsson

Report by the IUFRO Task Force on

“Information Technology and the Forest Sector”

Task Force Partners:

- International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)

- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

- Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla)

IUFRO Headquarters Hauptstrasse 7

1140 Vienna, Austria Tel: + 43-1-877-0151-0 Fax: +43-1-877-0151-50

Information Technology and the Forest Sector

Information Technology and the Forest Sector

The emergence of digital information and communication technology (ICT) has created

new challenges and opportunities for the global forest sector This report – the first systematic

and extensive assessment of ICT impacts on the forest sector – analyzes how ICT has affected

the global forest sector to date and discusses the driving forces shaping ICT development

and its implications for the sector’s future The report also proposes research and policy

strategies to help the forest sector adjust to the changes brought about by ICT development

Perhaps the most significant impacts of ICT development thus far have related to productivity

increases and the greater demand for paper products ICT has enhanced productivity and

reduced production costs both in the forest industry and in forestry itself Paper consumption

has increased markedly as a result of modern office technology (personal computers,

photocopiers, printers) The introduction of global positioning systems and satellite

photography have revolutionized the monitoring and management of forest resources These

and many other examples, as well as their implications, are discussed in this report

Will the current trends in ICT development continue? What are the emerging new trends?

The report suggests that impacts are likely to be more significant in the future than in the

past and, in many cases, qualitatively different or even unexpected A systematic consideration

of the topic, which this report seeks to provide, can thus assist the forest sector in making the

relevant – and inevitable – adjustments

The forest sector has only just begun to grasp the likely long-term impacts of ICT and to

understand their potential magnitude Views on the characteristics, number, and the timing

of these impacts tend to differ significantly throughout the forest sector Such differing views

can be partly attributed to the lack of scientific research on the topic and the lack of relevant

data Thus ICT is providing new challenges not only to the global forest sector but to forest

research Indeed, a number of issues meriting further research are indicated in the report

Lauri Hetemäki is a senior researcher at the Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla) and Sten

Nilsson is the Deputy Director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

International Union of Forest Research Organizations Union Internationale des Instituts de Recherches Forestières Internationaler Verband Forstlicher Forschungsanstalten Unión Internacional de Organizaciones de Investigación Forestal

IUFRO World Series Vol 18

ISSN 1016-3263

ISBN 3-901347-56-9

Information Technology and the Forest Sector

Editors:

Lauri Hetemäki Sten Nilsson

Report by the IUFRO Task Force on

“Information Technology and the Forest Sector”

Task Force Partners:

- International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)

- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

- Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla)

Recommended catalogue entry:

Information Technology and the Forest Sector Report by the IUFRO Task Force on “Information Technology and the

Forest Sector,” jointly organized by the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO), the InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and the Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla) Lauri Hetemäki andSten Nilsson (editors) Vienna, IUFRO, 2005, 235 pp (IUFRO World Series Volume 18)

ISSN 1016-3263

ISBN 3-901347-56-9

Cover photos:

1 Landscape from Koli, Finland Photo by Erkki Oksanen (Metla)

2 Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite image of forest Data available from U.S Geological Survey, EROS Data Center, Sioux Falls,South Dakota

3 Online and print newspaper Photo by Erkki Oksanen (Metla)

Published by:

IUFRO Headquarters, Vienna, Austria, 2005

© 2005 Lauri Hetemäki, Sten Nilsson, and IUFRO

Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 ICT and the Forest Sector: The History and the Present

Chapter 3 Surprising Futures

Chapter 4 E-Commerce

Chapter 5 ICT in Forest Business

Chapter 6 ICT and Communication Paper Markets

Chapter 7 ICT and the Paperboard and Packaging Industry

Chapter 8 ICT and the Wood Industry

Anders Baudin, Lars Eliasson, Åsa Gustafsson, Lina Hagström, Klara Helstad,

Anders Q Nyrud, Jon Bingen Sande, Erlend Yström Haartveit, and Rune Ziethén 129

Chapter 9 ICT in Forest Management and Conservation

Keith M Reynolds, Jose G Borges, Harald Vacik, and Manfred J Lexer 150

Chapter 10 ICT and Social Issues

Chapter 11 ICT and International Governance

Chapter 12 Conclusions and Implications

Preface

This volume in the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) World Series presents the final report of the IUFRO Task Force on Information Technology and the Forest Sector The Task Force was established by Lauri Hetemäki (Metla), Sten Nilsson (IIASA), and Michael Obersteiner (IIASA) in 2002, with Sten Nilsson as chairman The work was coordinated by IIASA The objectives of the Task Force were 1) to establish an operational network to identify and coordinate research and activities on the topic of information technology and the forest sector and 2)

to produce a Task Force report

We would like to thank Risto Seppälä, the President of IUFRO, whose idea it was to establish the Task Force We also thank IIASA, Metla, and the home institutions of the Task Force members for their contribution to the success of this work We are first and foremost indebted to the authors of the chapters included in this volume Special thanks go to IIASA’s Forestry Program for organizing and hosting the Task Force workshops and for handling and funding the production of the report

Technical editing of the report was carried out by Kathryn Platzer (IIASA); the Task Force administrative work was organized by Cynthia Festin (IIASA); and the Task Force Web pages coordinated by Ian McCallum (IIASA) We are indeed grateful for these crucial contributions to the work of the Task Force

The Editors Helsinki and Laxenburg, June 2005

Contributors

Anders Baudin, Professor, Department of Forest and Wood Technology, School of Technology and

Design, Växjö University, SE-351 95, Växjö, Sweden E-mail: anders.baudin@vxu.se

Jose G Borges, Professor, Department of Forestry, Institute of Agronomy, Technical University of

Lisbon, D E Florestal, ISA Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal E-mail:

joseborges@isa.utl.pt

Kevin Boston, Assistant Professor, Department of Forest Engineering, Oregon State University,

Corvallis OR 97331, USA E-mail: Kevin.Boston@oregonstate.edu

Susan Braatz, Senior Forestry Officer, Food and Agriculture Organization, Viale delle Terme di

Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy E-mail: susan.braatz@fao.org

Carol Colfer, Principal Scientist, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Jalan CIFOR,

Situ Gede, Sindangbarang, Bogor Barat 16680, Indonesia, PO Box 6596, JKPWB, Jakarta 10065, Indonesia E-mail: c.colfer@cgiar.org

Åsa Devine, PhD student, Department of Forest and Wood Technology, School of Technology and

Design, Växjö University, SE-351 95, Växjö, Sweden E-mail: asa.devine@ips.vxu.se

Lars Eliasson, Department of Forest and Wood Technology, School of Technology and Design,

Växjö University, SE-351 95, Växjö, Sweden

Carol Green, Forest Resources Librarian, Natural Sciences Library, University of Washington, Box

352900, Seattle, WA 98195-2900 E-mail: ccgreen@u.washington.edu

Åsa Gustafsson, Department of Forest and Wood Technology, School of Technology and Design,

Växjö University, SE-351 95, Växjö, Sweden E-mail: Asa.gustafsson@vxu.se

Erlend Yström Haartveit, PhD student, Norwegian Forest Research Institute, Skogforsk Norwegian

Forest Research Institute, Høgskoleveien 8, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail:

Erlend.Haartveit@skogforsk.no

Lina Hagström, Swedish Institute for Wood Technology Research, Borås, Sweden

Klara Helstad, Department of Forest and Wood Technology, School of Technology and Design,

Växjö University, SE-351 95, Växjö, Sweden

Lauri Hetemäki, Senior Researcher, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Unioninkatu 40 A, 00170

Helsinki, Finland E-mail: lauri.hetemaki@metla.fi

Peter Ince, Research Forester, United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest

Products Laboratory, One Gifford Pinchot Drive, Madison, WI 53726-2398, USA E-mail: pince@fs.fed.us

Trina Innes, Head, Education and Outreach , Department of Environment, Government of Alberta,

Main Floor, Oxbridge Place, 9820–106 St Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T5K 2J6 E-mail:

Trina.Innes@gov.ab.ca

Sanna Kallioranta, PhD student, Graduate Research Assistant, Louisiana State University, School

of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana Forest Products Development Center, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA E-mail: skalli1@lsu.edu

Manfred J Lexer, Doctor, Professor, Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil

Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences Vienna, Strasse 82, A-1190 Vienna, Austria E-mail: mj.lexer@boku.ac.at

Peter-Jordan-Sten Nilsson, Professor, Deputy Director of IIASA, Leader of the Forestry Program, International

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria mail: nilsson@iiasa.ac.at

E-Anders Q Nyrud, Associate Professor, Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management,

Norwegian University of Life Sciences, PO Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail:

anders.qvale.nyrud@umb.no

Keith M Reynolds, Research Forester, U.S Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific

Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA E-mail: kreynolds@fs.fed.us

Ewald Rametsteiner, Resarch Scholar, Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria E-mail:

ramet@iiasa.ac.at

Jon Bingen Sande, PhD Student, Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management,

Norwegian University of Life Sciences, PO Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway E-mail:

jon.bingen.sande@umb.no

Alan Thomson, Senior Research Scientist, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada,

Pacific Forestry Centre, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8Z 1M5 E-mail: athomson@pfc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca

Harald Vacik, Doctor, Professor, Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences,

University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Strasse 82,

A-1190 Vienna, Austria E-mail: harald.vacik@boku.ac.at

Tiina Vähänen, Forestry Officer, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale

delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy E-mail: Tiina.Vahanen@fao.org

Richard Vlosky, Professor, Director, Louisiana Forest Products Development Center, Louisiana

State University, School of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University

Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA E-mail: vlosky@lsu.edu

Rune Ziethén, National Testing and Research Institute, Borås, Sweden E-mail: rune.ziethen@sp.se

Chapter 1 Introduction

Lauri Hetemäki and Sten Nilsson

When reading the accounts of the 1870s and 1880s written by those who lived

through them, one is inevitably struck by the similarities between the evolution of

compound engines and ships and that of chips and computers, between the process of

generation of a world economy through transcontinental transport and telegraph and

the present process of globalization through telecommunication and the Internet

(Perez, 2002)

“No topic in publishing and information has been more talked about in recent years than electronic and optical communication technology and its impact on existing media and on the future of paper”

(Rennel et al., 1984) This statement is the first line of a book, published over 20 years ago, that

considers the impacts of information and communication technology (ICT) on the paper industry and markets.1 Since then, the world has experienced the spread of new ICT innovations to mass markets such as the Internet, broadband, and mobile phones While the world forest sector has also been fundamentally changed by the development of ICT, there are still no comprehensive or systematic studies as to how Nor are there any studies as to how ICT is likely to change the sector in the future This study aims to fill some of those gaps

The lack of such studies is perhaps not surprising Studying the impact of ICT on the forest sector would—in some ways—be like studying the impact of electricity or the internal combustion engine on the forest sector ICT, like electricity and the engine, belongs to a category known as general purpose technologies: technologies that are basically everywhere and affect everything (Jovanovic and Rousseau, forthcoming) The role of ICT in the development of the forest sector is thus difficult to precisely identify and quantify Moreover, immediate, short-term changes in general purpose technologies tend to have long-term impacts in terms of organizational, institutional, and cultural changes Thus, the full impact of ICT will be apparent only after a long time lapse

As the quotation at the beginning of this chapter indicates, the “ICT revolution” is often understood as having changed and as continuing to change our societies just as the “industrial revolution” did in the late nineteenth century Today, we know that the industrial revolution caused fundamental changes in the forest sector, for example, the advent of large-scale pulp and paper manufacturing Similarly, the forest sector has not been immune to ICT, nor will it be immune to the ICT developments predicted to take place in the future As many of the impacts of ICT on the forest sector are very general, a precise assessment of them is difficult It is, however, important to try to analyze them

There are already a number of studies on particular aspects of ICT and their impact on specific forest-sector-related topics Interest has been most significant and long-standing in the impacts of electronic media on paper consumption There have also been studies on more contemporary issues, such as the role of global positioning systems (GPS) in forest inventory, e-business in the wood products industry, or radio frequency identification (RFID) labels in packaging, to mention a few This publication presents an extensive discussion of ICT impacts on the forest sector—from the forestry industry to the end products in the market This breadth of discussion has important advantages First, as issues in the forest sector tend to be linked, it allows useful feedback between the various topics For example, if ICT changes the consumption of forest products (e.g., paper), there will also be changes in the consumption of wood, and thus in the way we use our forests It is

1 For a detailed definition of ICT, see the Appendix

therefore useful to try to analyze how ICT impacts on forest products “trickle down” to forests The second advantage of extensive coverage is to provide a discussion about those topics not addressed in detail in the literature As already mentioned, the main relevance of ICT to the forest sector has historically been seen in terms of its possible impacts on paper consumption Even today, when one discusses ICT in the context of the forest sector, people’s minds immediately turn to such issues as

“the paperless office.” However, as this publication shows, this is too narrow a view ICT has affected and is still affecting the global forest sector in many other ways, and these are fundamentally changing how things are being done or not being done anymore

Many of the impacts of ICT on the forest sector are relatively new or still on the horizon This is quite simply because some of the major ICT innovations tend to be of recent origin themselves For example, in 1995, the first year of widespread use of the Internet, there were still only about 16 million users in the world Ten years later, there are about one billion Given the speed at which the Internet is currently spreading, there may well be two billion by 2010 More important than the number of users, of course, are the changes that such trends are bringing with them Economic, social, political, and cultural activities across the globe are being structured by and around the Internet, computers, and mobile communication networks Castells (2001, p 3) has stated that,

“exclusion from these networks is one of the most damaging forms of exclusion in our economy and

of ICT on the global forest sector is thus obvious

ICT is not only about new technology; it is also about new ways of doing things ICT can be seen as having three interlocking themes: 1) new developments in the technologies themselves, 2) new innovations, developments within organizations, and developments in sectoral working/business practices, and 3) how quickly and how widely these developments are being taken up in society The details of the technology are less important than the changes that ICT is bringing to the basic structures of society For example, ICT has important implications for the ways societies organize work and create economic wealth and for how people spend their leisure time It helps to

interconnect people, economies, and societies in new ways—the words globalization and networking are often used in this context Thus, the analysis in this study emphasizes the impacts of ICT rather

than the technology itself

The impacts of ICT on the global forest sector can be seen in contrasting ways For example, in countries where the forest sector has played an important role (e.g., Canada, Finland, Sweden, and parts of the United States), it is not uncommon to contrast the new “knowledge society” or “ICT society” with mature “smokestack” sectors such as the forest industry While the former is viewed as

representing the future and hope, the latter is seen as something belonging to the past, in short, passé Indeed, in many of the countries just mentioned, this passé image is making it increasingly difficult

to attract new generations to study forest-industry-related subjects or to work in the forest industry Although this stereotype may appear to be a superficial image problem, it is nevertheless an important factor affecting the sector Interestingly, the opposite seems to be happening in a number

of economically less-advanced countries For example, the forest industry is attracting increasing investment, employment, and interest in countries such as Brazil, Chile, China, Indonesia, Poland, and Russia

The image of the forest industry as a smokestack sector tends to obscure the possibility that ICT could become a source of new opportunities and a new image As has happened in so many other sectors, ICT can enable new inventions and greater prosperity As such opportunities are not necessarily inherent in existing forest-sector structures, new and innovative ways of combining ICT

and forest-based materials or services must be sought Another purpose of this study is to point out such opportunities

As well as the macro-level developments mentioned above, a large number of more specific and fundamental changes are also taking place in various subsectors of the forest industry Indeed, it is difficult to think of issues in forest sector that are not affected by ICT On the other hand, the global forest sector is such a large entity that ICT cannot have a uniform and simultaneous impact on every part of it For many subsectors, ICT appears to provide a new engine for progress and opportunity For others, it can be a disruptive or even “killer” technology In many instances too, ICT impacts cannot yet be clearly seen Moreover, the speed at which these influences affect the sector is likely to vary among different geographical locations and subsectors We hope the present study succeeds in reflecting this heterogeneity

It is important to stress that ICT impacts that are slow and gradual can be as significant as immediate “disruptive” changes, principally because of the inherently long-term character of the forest sector For example, trees planted today in natural boreal forests may not reach their optimal harvesting age for 70 to 100 years Similarly, after a forest is clear cut, it may take hundreds of years for it to return to its original state Forest industry investments are typically made on the basis of a 15–30 year time horizon Thus, forest-sector issues—wood production, forest-product markets, forest conservation, and biodiversity—require a long-term view That is why analysis of the slow, gradual trends caused by ICT is so important Assessments and projections of these trends will draw attention

to emerging problems, indicate the likely impact of interventions, and guide the development of investments and other resource-allocation decisions

The new and changing operating environment caused by ICT also creates important challenges for forest-sector research In basic research, new or updated models and methods may be required In applied research, new empirical results are needed to quantify ICT impacts on the forest sector From the applied research perspective, however, such research has important limitations with respect to future development

There is thus a need to seek new ways of envisioning the nature of future development Consequently, in this study, various qualitative approaches are used, along with data analysis, to try

to predict the future impacts of ICT on the forest sector Indeed, the emphasis in most of the chapters

is of a qualitative rather than quantitative nature

Here, the starting point for the qualitative approach is that the future cannot be treated as an objective fact but needs to be thought of as emerging and only partially knowable In that sense, it should not be treated as an empirical reality but rather as a set of only partially viewable alternatives that describe future possibilities Consequently, we present scenarios, or rather visions, of the future impacts of ICT on the forest sector These are not intended to predict the future but rather are tools for thinking about the future They acknowledge that the future may be unlike the past and that it is shaped by human choice and action They also acknowledge that while the future cannot be foreseen, exploring future possibilities can inform decisions being made now Basically, this type of approach involves rational analysis and subjective judgment Its danger is that it may produce banal superficiality as opposed to insight We hope that this study has succeeded in avoiding this pitfall—but this we must leave to the judgment of the reader

History also shows that predictions and scenarios related to technological development and innovations tend to be children of their time When the public first become aware of new innovations, their optimism is high; they think new systems or services will revolutionize society and do everything short of mixing the perfect martini After the initial hype comes the hangover, which shows that expectations were excessive or that a too-rapid development was anticipated This is what supposedly happened, for example, with the so-called information economy bubble at the turn of this century It was like an “ICT tsunami” that created high and bullish markets; but when reality hit, hopes were destroyed and the resulting economic slowdown wiped out many new businesses

Thus, the history of technological development tends to be associated with waves of great expectations followed by a rapid deflation of those expectations (Perez, 2002) And when our expectations are deflated, disappointment tends to make us believe—wrongly—that nothing of any

significance will result from the new developments In short, technological forecasting tends to

overestimate short-term impacts and underestimate long-term impacts It is the failure to anticipate

the gradual, long-term trends, however, that can turn out to be the most fatal for many policies and businesses, in that, because of their slowness, action may not be taken until it is too late

This study does not aim to provide instant rules and formulas for reacting to ICT changes in the forest sector; its goal is to help the reader recognize patterns and interpret the meaning of the changes caused by ICT and to promote understanding of how ICT and the forest sector intersect As the topic

of ICT impacts in the forest sector is still greatly neglected in forest research, it is imperative to draw attention to its importance, not least because—as indicated earlier—this study appears to be the first comprehensive analysis of this topic The research task is a challenging one because the subject matter seems to develop and change much faster than research can hope to keep pace with Moreover, the ways in which ICT will affect our societies and the forest sector in the future are likely

to cause surprises As Castells (2001, p 195) has pointed out, “The wonderful thing about technology

is that people end up doing with it something different from what was originally intended.” The present study can therefore be seen as indicative of a need for further and more-detailed analysis of the impact of ICT in many of the topic areas referred to in this book

The study is intended not only for researchers but for a much wider forest-sector readership It thus also addresses the strategic and policy implications of ICT changes in the forest sector The reasons for providing this type of analysis vary in terms of the topic under discussion Even if clear strategic and policy implications do not emerge, the analysis can be helpful in decision making Often, the first stage of a decision process is pattern recognition; being able to systematically analyze

a topic, draw attention to the major trends, and identify the important patterns may be the most we can hope to do If only this were achieved, it would be a significant step on the road to informed decision making

This study is not an exhaustive one Its purpose is to cover the issues more deeply than merely providing an introduction Covering all possible issues would have led to a work of encyclopedic proportions—ICT has too many direct and indirect effects for them all to be covered in just one study For example, the potential impacts of ICT on firewood and charcoal or wood energy are not discussed—even though the latter account for over 50% of total world wood utilization The relationship between ICT and firewood is just too tenuous Moreover, although ICT is a central enabler of, for example, biotechnology and nanotechnology development, we do not consider the impacts of the latter technologies on the forest sector They are topics worthy of their own study The outline of the study is as follows Chapter 2 places the topic in context, summarizing the main impacts of ICT in the forest sector to date The chapter provides a historical background for the rest of the book, explaining how the relationship between ICT and the forest sector has developed thus far and how ICT is likely to affect the forest sector in the future

Chapter 3 discusses past successes and failures in making projections and building future scenarios regarding the impacts of new innovations It provides a cautionary reminder of our limited ability to make long-term projections Looking back at history, we see that new innovations can have unexpected consequences and that projections can also go wrong There is room for optimism, however, for in the past, people have been able to anticipate future developments with surprising accuracy Clearly, some issues are easier to anticipate than others

Chapter 4 gives an overview of e-commerce in general and its applications to the forest sector Future scenarios and policy implications are also discussed Chapter 5 is closely related to Chapter 4

in that it discusses the possibilities that ICT provides for forest business in terms of increasing operational productivity and efficiency

Chapter 6 addresses one important forest products category—communication papers The chapter discusses and foresees how ICT is likely to impact on newsprint, magazine paper, and office paper consumption and prices It also assesses the ICT implications for the paper industry operating environment, such as the geographical location of future investments

Chapter 7 extends the discussion of Chapter 6 to the paperboard and packaging markets The approach taken also provides new insights into how ICT development could change the strategies of the forest industry In that sense, the chapter has a larger relevance than the sector that it addresses Chapter 8 considers ICT impacts on the wood products industry Here, as in Chapter 7, the major issues relate not to ICT impacts on the consumption of the products but on how the sector can utilize ICT to increase productivity and improve marketing It also discusses how ICT development could

be integrated into the wood products sector and into the infrastructure supporting the utilization of these products

Chapter 9 reviews how ICT development has affected, and is likely to affect, the way in which forests are managed for the purposes of wood production and conservation

Chapter 10 moves the focus of the study from the direct forest sector connection to a more general level It addresses the cultural and social impacts of ICT on our societies that, in turn, will have impacts on the forest sector One major theme raised by the chapter is the “digital divide” issue Chapter 11 considers the policy and governance dimension of ICT development It asks how ICT has affected, and is likely to affect, the governance of forest policy and forest issues

Chapter 12 provides a summary of the study and discusses the strategy and policy implications of the findings

Appendix

Box 1.1 What Do We Mean by ICT?

The acronyms ICT (information and communication technology) or IT (information technology) have entered our everyday language in the last decade and tend to be used interchangeably, with ICT recently seeming to have become the more popular

A number of different definitions of ICT have been established by international organizations such

as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, and different national statistical authorities The OECD definition of ICT is also endorsed by the United Nations Statistical Office (UNSO) and used by a number of national statistical institutes (NSIs) All the definitions tend to characterize ICT as including both hardware and software used

to store, process, and transport information in digital form

The OECD Committee for Information, Computer and Communications Policy (ICCP) established

an Ad Hoc Statistical Panel to address the issue of indicators for the Information Society in 1997 The Panel recognized that the ICT sector should be defined as an industrial sector formed by bringing together business units (establishments, enterprises, or enterprise groups) that had common ICT activities It was felt that the industrial classification ISIC Rev 3 was the best option available for collecting indicators on an internationally comparable basis In September 1998 the OECD definition of ICT was released

The OECD definition

The principles underlying the choice of the activities included in the ICT sector definition:

For manufacturing industries, the products of a candidate industry:

• Must be intended to fulfill the function of information processing and communication, including transmission and display; or

• Must use electronic processing to detect, measure, and/or record physical phenomena or to control a physical process

For services industries, the products of a candidate industry:

• Must be intended to enable the function of information processing and communication by electronic means

The ISIC industries included in the ICT Sector:

Manufacturing:

3000: Office, accounting, and computing machinery

3130: Insulated wire cable

3210: Electronic valves and tubes, and other electronic components

3220: Television and radio transmitters, and apparatus for line telephony and line telegraphy 3230: Television and radio receivers, sound or video recording, or reproducing apparatus and

associated goods

3312: Instruments and appliances for measuring, checking, testing, navigating, and other

purposes, except industrial process equipment

3313: Industrial process equipment

References

Castells, M., 2001, The Internet Galaxy, Reflections on the Internet, Business and Society, Oxford

University Press, Oxford, UK

Jovanovic, B., and Rousseau, P.L., General purpose technologies, in P Aghion, P Durlauf, and S

Durlauf, eds., Handbook of Economic Growth, Part 3, Chapter 1 (forthcoming) See

http://www.nyu.edu/econ/user/jovanovi/GPT.pdf (Last accessed April 2005)

Perez, C., 2002, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and

Golden Ages, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK

Rennel, J., Aurell, R., and Paulapuro, H., 1984, Future of Paper in the Telematic World, A Jaakko

Pöyry Review, Oy Frenckell Ab, Finland

Chapter 2 ICT and the Forest Sector: The History and the Present

Lauri Hetemäki, Anders Q Nyrud, and Kevin Boston∗

The image of the forest sector tends to be that of a natural-resource-intensive and mature sector This view obscures the fact that, throughout its history, the forest sector has adjusted to new inventions such as electronics For example, telegraphy and telephones were already being widely used in the sector during the late nineteenth century Moreover, the large increases in productivity in the forest sector after World War II would clearly have been impossible without the automation achieved by the increasing use of electronics, including computers

The purpose of this chapter is to present a historical overview of information and communication technology (ICT) utilization in the forest sector and to assess how ICT has impacted the sector’s operating environment, for example, product development and markets We do not seek to provide a complete historical assessment; we focus rather on the period from about the late 1970s to the present when modern ICT began to have profound impacts—from the introduction of microchips and personal computers (PCs) to the spread of the Internet and mobile communications For forestry, the launch of the first global positioning system (GPS) satellite in 1978 also turned out to be a significant milestone

To date, the discussion of the impact of ICT on the forest sector has tended to concentrate on possible changes in the consumption of communication paper products (the “paperless office” debate) This is not surprising, as the possible impacts of ICT have been most clearly identified, and are perhaps most significant, for these products But the impacts of ICT on the forest-products markets is only one dimension of the issue It is equally important to analyze, for example, how the sector itself has used ICT to enhance productivity and increase service quality When ICT impacts are viewed from this perspective, it becomes clear that significant changes have taken place in all forest industry sectors For example, the use of ICT in raw-material procurement, logistics, production processes, and marketing has had important implications not only for communication papers but also for the paperboard and packaging industry and for the wood products industry ICT has also played a crucial role in the monitoring and managing of forest resources, with geographic information systems (GIS) now being the cornerstone of most forest management information systems The use of forests for many types of services, such as recreation, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration, has also been influenced by modern ICT It is evident, therefore, that ICT is having wide impacts on the forest sector, from silviculture to the marketing of forest products and the recreational use of forests

The outline of the chapter is as follows First, we analyze the impact of ICT on the communication paper sector and comment very briefly on the relationship between ICT and the paperboard and packaging sector (the latter topic is taken up in more detail in Chapter 7) Next, we turn to the wood products sector, and then move on to discuss the impact of ICT on forest management We conclude by briefly analyzing how ICT has influenced the various services generated by forests

By communication papers we mean printing and writing papers and newsprint Printing and writing papers can be classified according to end use into the following groups: office papers (photocopying, printing, envelopes, stationery), magazine papers and catalogues, and other print products (books,

∗Hetemäki is responsible for sections 2.1−2.3, and 2.6; Nyrud for 2.4; and Boston for 2.5 Hetemäki would like

to thank Tuija Sievänen and Ashley Selby of the Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla) for their comments

inserts, flyers, directories, lower-print-quality magazines and catalogues) In 2003 total world communication paper production was 135 million tons, which amounted to 41% of total world paper and paperboard production (Source: FAO database) In terms of value, exports of communication papers were US$41.6 billion (i.e., 57% of the total value of paper and paperboard exports) In the paper and paperboard sector, the production of communication papers uses the largest share of wood fibers (pulpwood, chips, and recovered paper) The impacts of ICT on communication papers are thus of major interest to the whole forest sector

2.2.1 The paperless office—The development of a myth

What can be said about the development of ICT and communication papers in the past two decades?

If one approaches the question from the perspective of the early 1980s, a natural starting point is the introduction of the idea of the “paperless office.” Sellen and Harper (2001, p 2) believe that it is quite difficult to track down where and when this term entered common parlance They also note that

as early as 1895 a pair of French satirists were predicting that the record player would bring “the end

of the book”; that, around the turn of the century, Jules Verne doubted there would be novels in 50 to

100 years’ time; and that by the 1960s Marshall McLuhan (1962) was writing as though The

Gutenberg Galaxy would collapse into a black hole However, an important landmark in identifying

the source of the paperless office idea was the foundation of the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) in 1970 PARC is a research unit established to develop innovative products to help to create the “office of the future” in which electronics would replace paper Consequently, PARC’s “office of the future” vision also became labeled as the “paperless office” vision

As we know, the vision of the paperless office has not yet been realized But during the early 1980s, when microchip development advanced significantly and personal computers started to enter consumer markets, some analysts predicted that these and other developments in electronic communications could have a drastic impact on paper use

Studies by the U.S Congress (1983) and Rennel et al (1984) provide a perspective of how the

role of ICT and communication paper products was seen in the 1980s The U.S Congress (1983) study was commissioned by the Congress Office of Technology Assessment to analyze the role of technology in the forest products industry The chapter, Competition from Electronic Technologies, summarizes the existing literature on the topic and provides a good overview of the subject as seen in the early 1980s The study makes reference to a number of publications that point to the potential impacts of the substitution of ICT for paper Many of these articles forecast a major shift away from the use of paper toward increased reliance on electronic media.1 The U.S Congress (1983, p 77) study, however, also notes that “uncertainties regarding the rate of commercialization and public acceptance and forecasts of its impacts on paper must be considered speculative While there is little disagreement among analysts that electronic communications may ultimately displace the need for some writing and printing papers, the timing and extent of the impacts are subjects of debate.” The study also notes that, in the short term, the proliferation of word processors and office copiers seems

to have increased the demand for printing and writing paper It anticipates that the future impact of electronic media on paper demand is likely to depend on the attitudes of a generation of children accustomed to the partial substitution of electronics for paper The U.S Congress (1983, p 79) study concludes by stating that “although current technology limits the use of electronic communication to desktop consoles and large computer and word-processing installations, the development of handheld portable devices with readable screens—and microelectronic processors capable of storing entire

1 For example, in 1980 Euro-Data Analysts, a British-based market consulting group, projected: “Over the long term, Euro-Data considers it likely that the developed countries will achieve a nearly paperless society as the rate of commercialization of electronic communications accelerates Euro-Data forecasts that during the current decade, paper will lose a share of the market to the electronic media through video telephone, telex, video books, video newspapers, consumer magazines, and electronic funds transfers” (quoted in U.S Congress, 1983,

p 77)

books and magazines—could have a significant impact on the substitution of electronic media for print.”

Rennel et al (1984) is a detailed study of the future of paper in the “telematics world,” written by

pulp and paper engineers Although it tends to emphasize the technical aspects of the issue, it acknowledges the importance of its economic and social dimensions The general tone and view of the study is more “professional” than the U.S Congress (1983) study and many similar studies of the late 1970s and early 1980s Furthermore, its analysis has turned out to be quite accurate First, it argues that the impact of electronic media such as the use of videotex for news, shopping, and banking will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary This is partly because “Consumers’ acceptance of the new electronic media is deeply rooted in both economic and social patterns Changes in patterns will only occur when it proves profitable to provide new outlets to meet

changing consumer demand” (Rennel et al., 1984, p 226) Second, the study concludes that the

demand for printing and writing papers is likely to increase with the use of electronics such as PCs,

word processors, and office copiers Nevertheless, as Rennel et al (1984) acknowledge, although

new electronic technologies will introduce new communication possibilities that, for the most part, will enhance the use of paper, these will in some cases be a substitute for paper The authors do anticipate, however, that the negative impacts will take a very long time to be of great significance to the paper industry

The main emphasis in early studies on the impacts of ICT in the paper industry was on the consumption of communication paper products Discussion about the possible benefits of ICT utilization for productivity or for the other forest sectors (paperboard, the wood industry, and forestry) was limited or nonexistent

Once the “paperless office” debate was aroused, the discussion never totally vanished, but it did lose its momentum, and studies focusing only on this topic more or less disappeared One of the most important reasons for this was the rapid spread of electronic communication and electronic office equipment, which increased the demand for communication papers rather than replaced it.2 This

development is summarized in Figure 2.1, which shows the world consumption of communication

papers and the development of some important ICT equipment and services.3 Figure 2.1 indicates

that the consumption of printing and writing papers and newsprint has increased significantly despite the introduction of the new digital media and services Indeed, the consumption of some paper grades such as cut-size or A4 papers has undoubtedly increased because of PCs, printers, and copy machines Similarly, copy machines, printers, and fax machines exist only because of paper Thus, in today's office, paper is an electronics-intensive product, and vice versa

In the late 1990s there was renewed interest in the debate on the impact of ICT on communication papers (see, e.g., Boston Consulting Group, 1999; Hetemäki, 1999; Electronic Document System Foundation, 2001; Smyth and Birkenshaw, 2001; CAP Ventures, 2003) This revival was spurred mainly by the rapid development of the Internet and new communications technology (e.g., mobile phones and electronic books) However, the “two waves” of debates, separated by nearly two decades, had some important qualitative differences In particular, the increasing use of ICT and electronic commerce was seen as a new way of enhancing productivity in business-to-business operations, logistics, marketing processes, the paper-production process, and the forest sector in general It was anticipated that the new ICT would also create demand for new paper products, such as digital color paper grades Some of the studies also pointed to the impact of ICT on the real prices of paper products (Hetemäki, 1999) In Chapter 6, there is a more detailed discussion

of the recent studies on ICT and communication papers

2 In fact, some paper products did actually vanish because of ICT: carbon paper for copying and punch-card

paper for computer commands

3 Chapter 6 discusses in more detail what conclusions can be reached for the future, based on Figure 2.1

Million tons

100

60 80

20 40

Radio, cinema, TV

Mainframe computers, color TV

Personal computers

Laser printers

Internet, mobile phones, video games

Printing and writing paper

Newsprint

Figure 2.1 World communication paper consumption and ICT development, 1960–2000

2.2.2 ICT, productivity, and globalization

Today, in many countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), paper industry output per labor hour is significantly higher than in the 1970s (e.g., in the United States it is twice as high as in 1970) One important factor behind this rapid increase in productivity has been the increasing use of ICT Indeed, ICT development has been essential for the viability of the sector First, ICT has increased the productivity of the actual production process through automation Second, it has made the internal handling of business within companies more efficient Third, ICT has increased productivity in the paper products industry at the raw-material procurement, logistics, and marketing stages Indeed, today, the paper industry likes to promote its image as an ICT-intensive industry (Krogerström, 1998)

In recent years, business-to-business communication and e-commerce have revolutionized material procurement and the marketing of end products in the paper industry One important development has been the launching of papiNet in 1999 (http://www.papinet.org) papiNet is the global initiative to develop, maintain, and promote the implementation of electronic transaction standards to facilitate the flow of information and facilitate computer-to-computer communications among all parties engaged in the buying, selling, and distribution of forest, paper, and wood products

raw-It enables forest products companies to reduce costs, enhance relationships, and improve decisions through the use of a secure, industry-specific, transaction-processing network It also improves the quality of customer service (for more details, see chapters 4 and 5)

Some ICT impacts are rather difficult to quantify For example, ICT is likely to change organizational structures and working practices ICT development has, however, been essential to the globalization of the paper industry by facilitating and lowering the costs of company mergers and foreign investments Usually, the more global a paper company is, the more important the role of ICT

in it Indeed, it is difficult to envisage global paper companies with production and marketing facilities in over 20 countries not having the possibility of real-time communication and information transfer

The paperboard and packaging papers group consists of various paper types First, kraft papers are

used primarily as wrappers or packaging materials (e.g., grocers’ bags, envelopes, multiwall sacks,

tire wraps, and butchers’ wraps); boxboard is a general term designating the paperboard used for fabricating boxes; and containerboard is used in the manufacture of shipping containers and other

corrugated-board products The share of paperboard and packaging papers in the total world consumption of paper and paperboard is around 40%

The history of ICT in the paperboard and packaging sector has some important differences from that of ICT in the communication papers sector There were no fears that the development of ICT

would cause a decline in the consumption of paperboard and packaging papers, as ICT cannot produce direct substitutes for these Instead, interest in the paperboard and packaging sector has centered on how ICT could enhance the sector’s productivity and business strategies, as well as on opportunities for combining ICT with packaging products (e.g., bar codes and so-called intelligent packaging)

There appear to be no comprehensive and systematic studies on the impact of ICT on the paperboard and packaging sector An overview of the topic is presented in Chapter 7, as are insights into possible future developments in the industry

Wood is available to most cultures as a versatile, naturally replenishable resource of raw material It has traditionally been used for purposes such as toolmaking, housing and shelter, and the creation of art and religious symbols Wood products can be produced using fairly simple technologies, but modern production techniques frequently utilize advanced, capital-intensive technology Both traditional and modern manufacturing techniques are reflected in current production Many of the tools and techniques of carpentry perfected since the Middle Ages have changed little, and traditional techniques are frequently reflected in contemporary wood products But new and advanced wood products are also continuously being developed (e.g., particle board being made into designer furniture)

In the wood products industry, solid and composite wood products are manufactured through the mechanical processing of either industrial roundwood or derivates from other wood industries Primary wood processing involves the processing of logs (i.e., sawmilling and manufacture of wood-based panels), while secondary processing adds value to primary products through, for example, the industrial manufacture of furniture, woodworking, or construction The industry is heterogeneous, both with respect to size and location of the production units The units producing primary goods mainly use roundwood of local origin, and the processing is usually carried out close to the raw material—in forested regions Wood-processing mills may even control raw material supply through the ownership of forests

In 2002 the total world production of wood-based panels was nearly 185 million cubic meters, and lumber production was 390 million cubic meters (Source: FAO database) The total consumption

of sawlogs and veneer logs was 930 million cubic meters Approximately one-third of wood-based

panels and one-quarter of lumber production were traded across borders The export value of the

wood-based panels was $16 billion and of the sawn wood $22 billion

2.4.1 ICT in the production process: The transformation of the sawmilling industry

Since the 1960s the sawmilling industry has used ICT in production, thus transforming formerly labor-intensive practices into a capital-intensive, automated production process The sawmilling industry serves as a good example of how ICT has impacted on the wood industry Today, ICT is applied in all aspects of the wood products industry (manufacture of sawnwood, panels, and boards, furniture, packaging, woodworking, millwork, and construction)

In sawmills, logs are split into rough-squared sections, planks, and boards As the cost of raw material accounts for approximately 60% of total production cost, producers usually attempt to maximize output using the raw material available Their key objective is to determine the best sawing pattern—or optimal breakdown—for the logs (primary breakdown) or to cut sawnwood to the best width and length and to saw or resaw cants and slabs into boards (secondary breakdown)

Williston (1976) points out that the basic requirements for determining the optimal breakdown of

a log are the ability to measure its geometry and grade, including taper and seep, to calculate the correct sawing position, and then to move and hold the log in that position Traditionally, the mill operator or head sawyer would make these calculations based on a visual inspection of the log and

his own experience The optimization can also be made through application of the Pythagorus theorem, and if there are proper measuring devices, can be performed by computer

The development of (laser and X-ray) scanners has enabled the diameter, length, and shape of the

log to be measured and the log geometry information to be stored (see Bowe et al., 2002) The

information obtained can be used to sort and grade logs to provide a graphical representation before sawing and as inputs to calculate optimal breakdown patterns Improvements in scanning and computer technology have made it possible to fit the headrig of a saw with a computerized scanner, facilitating the measurement of logs as they are fed into the headrig; this has represented a breakthrough in sawnwood production and has resulted in faster and more efficient production (see

Bowyer et al., 2003)

The introduction of ICT has provided the computing power needed to conduct the geometrical optimization required to determine the optimal sawing patterns for individual logs Geometrical optimization has been carried out mostly through the adaptation of numerical techniques such as simulation, linear programming, and dynamic programming The first digital optimization applications were introduced in the late 1960s, among them the Swedish simulation program developed by Riikonen in 1962 Williston (1979) at that time surveyed the state of the art in sawnwood manufacturing, pointing out that computerized optimization and automation applications were already in use in Sweden and the United States Similar applications for performing secondary breakdown and canting and cutting of sawnwood were also developed and integrated with headrigs in production

ICT has also impacted the treatment of sawnwood ICT applications have been used to measure

the length and width of planks and boards (Bowyer et al., 2003) and, through the use of tools such as picture analysis, to determine surface properties (e.g., knots and color) (Vienonen et al., 2002), thus

improving the sorting and grading of sawnwood Methods have also been introduced to control the drying process and to measure physical strength and reveal possible defects, for example, through stress and deformation testing or acoustic tests (see Marchal and Jacques, 1999)

Computing systems are usually integrated into modern log scanners to provide, for example, optimal breakdown patterns, edging and trimming, and visualization Computerized production methods have resulted in increased production efficiency Aune and Lefevre (1974) compared manually and computer-controlled chipper-canters and found the saw yield (lumber recovery factor)

to be higher for the computer-controlled system Specific efficiency estimates as a result of the introduction of ICT are hardly ever reported, but Robinson (1975), Greber and White (1982), and Baardsen (1998) all report improved efficiency in both United States (U.S.) and Norwegian sawmilling after ICT was introduced into the industry

2.4.2 Impact of the Internet

Most wood industries have seen developments similar to those in sawmilling, and ICT is now used for a wide range of purposes—from design and product development through to supply chain management, promotion, and sales Since the Internet was made available to the public, e-business has gained importance in the wood industry E-business is the application of Internet-based technologies to business activities and includes e-commerce (transaction activities) and business-oriented applications such as logistics, order entry, information sharing, and transmission of information between exchange partners (see chapters 4, 5, and 8)

Currently, companies in the wood products industry use e-business solutions in many tasks A company intranet provides a means of internal communication, for example, between management and employees ICT-supported supply chain management and logistics—with respect both to production inputs and deliveries of outputs to customers—are becoming increasingly common, as is the use of ICT for financial transactions, for transferring information among business contacts, for communication with consumers, and for marketing, sales, and product deliveries

The experience of Norwegian furniture manufacturers in the early 1990s shows that the implementation of e-business solutions can provide considerable benefits in the wood industry (Ministry of Transport and Communications, 1996) The Norwegian furniture industry has developed common computer systems for financial management, ordering, and production A local network was introduced to small-scale furniture manufacturers, facilitating information sharing and coordination

of business activities This resulted in considerable savings, with the 20 participating companies reporting annual savings of approximately NOK 30–50 million The network also improved competitiveness and increased value creation in the companies Moodley (2002) highlights the link between Internet connectivity and access to global markets He reports that e-commerce technologies are becoming increasingly important for South African wood furniture producers, integrating them into global value chains and thus exposing them to the demands of more sophisticated markets Studies have indicated that e-business solutions have already been generally adopted in the wood products industries The use of e-business solutions depends on factors such as market segment, customer base, and value-added to product and company size In 2001 more than half the members of the U.S Hardwood Lumber Association were using the Internet for business purposes (Vlosky and Smith, 2003) The use of the Internet was even higher among exporters of primary wood products in the United States In 1999 approximately 80% were using the Web, mainly for promotional activities

(Pitis and Vlosky, 2000a; Pitis and Vlosky, 2000b) Shook et al (2002) found the use of e-business

solutions for secondary forest products manufacturers in the Pacific Northwest to be independent of geographical location but correlated with manufacturing plant size In the Canadian wood products industry, Internet use for business purposes exceeds that of the U.S industry (Vlosky and Pitis, 2001); and according to surveys conducted by the OECD, this is also the case in other industrialized countries (OECD, 2003)

Dupuy and Vlosky (2000) conducted a mail survey investigating electronic data interchange (EDI) use by forest products manufacturers (primary solid wood/pulp and paper) in Canada and the United States They found that only 16% of their respondents were using EDI, that EDI implementation was highly correlated to company size, and that the main reason for implementation was requests from customers

A study conducted in 1999 concluded that in the U.S home-center business the number of companies with a Web site was almost three times higher than among forest products manufacturers (Vlosky and Westbrook, 2002) The use of other Internet-based technologies (e-mail, EDI, and Web sites) was also higher than the industry average, being a substitute for regular mail and fax, for example This indicates that the home-center industry and retailers already conducting e-commerce are also more likely to adopt other e-business strategies

Recknagel (1913) describes the information required to prepare forest management plans: soil type, topography, wildlife, growth and yield, and marketing data These information requirements have remained near constants for over 90 years, but the tools used to collect and manage the information have changed dramatically, with ICT development assisting the rapid assessment and integration of data from multiple sources

Geographic information systems (GISs) are now the cornerstone of most forest management information systems They have evolved from the simple mapping systems for computer graphics developed at the Harvard Graduate School of Design’s laboratory into the sophisticated systems of today (Burrough and McDonnell, 1998) They now allow for the integration of both raster and vector data and perform advanced modeling procedures using arithmetical and Boolean functions that involve both tabular and spatial data The development of a relational database further enhances the user’s ability to perform complex queries using natural language tools Advances in computer hardware technology leading to the development of low-cost and reliable mass-storage devices, graphic terminals, and digitizing and scanning devices, have made data more affordable GISs will play a more important role in the future as they become further integrated into enterprise-resource-

planning systems These systems manage forest operations as well as maintaining much of the documentation required by certification organizations

As well as the development of and advances in GIS technology, there have been considerable developments in the ability to collect spatial and tabular data for seamless integration into GISs Currently, handheld computers with global positioning system (GPS) capabilities can display, record, and annotate maps directly in the field Additional gains are being made in the rapid transfer of positional data to mapping systems using handheld laser technology coupled to field-data collectors

(Peet et al., 1997; Liu, 2002)

Remote sensing has played a significant role in forestry since the integration of aerial photography into forest inventory in Canada in the 1920s The first aerial photos were black and white, but now foresters have a choice between black and white, black and white infrared, color, and color infrared photography (Paine and Kiser, 2003) The photos can now be adjusted to specific needs (e.g., black and white photography can provide a better image resolution, whereas infrared photography can more easily detect areas with high moisture content or stressed or dying vegetation) Although digital photography is changing small-format photography, it must overcome the problem

of the large number of pixels required to produce high-resolution pictures in large-format cameras The development of image compression technology, such as the Foveon X3 detector, can reduce the memory required while improving the image resolution (Paine and Kiser, 2003)

Remote sensing has advanced with the space programs The first spaced-based images were taken by hand-held cameras during the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo space programs The Skylab was one of the first multiple-sensor, space-based, remote-sensing systems (Lillesand and Kiefer, 2000) Many consider the launch of the Landsat program, Landsat-1, in 1972 as being the first space-based, remote-sensing system, with five further successful launches taking place These systems contained multiple sensors, such as return beam vidicon, multispectral scanners, thematic mapper, enhanced thematic mapper, and enhanced thematic mapper plus (Lillesand and Kiefer, 2000) Space-based platforms have been established not only by the United States but by other countries France, India, Russia, and private corporations are now offering space-based remote sensing

Recently, there has been a significant increase in the use of the microwave portion of the electromagnetic spectrum The advantages of using these frequencies is their greater ability to penetrate atmospheric conditions such as clouds or rain Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) has been used to measure the canopy heights of forests (Lillesand and Kiefer, 2000)

A culmination of GIS and remote sensing is the development of stand-delineation and counting algorithms These procedures use several remote-sensing features, such as the location of areas of maximums combined with contrast-detecting techniques that identify the likely location of

tree-the trees (Leckie et al., 2003) This technology has tree-the potential to significantly improve forest

assessment The continual improvement in data-capture and data-management technology will allow forest plans to be developed with more and higher-quality information that will allow for the development of improved forest plans

This technology has emphasized the ability to collect more high-quality data with increased efficiency, often to support improved decision support systems Forestry has a rich tradition of developing decision-support tools using a combination of simulation and optimization techniques Some of the first linear-programming applications were developed to determine harvest levels for large forest areas (Johnson and Scheurman, 1977; Garcia, 1984) In the last 30 years, there has been

an increase in the number of discrete harvest-scheduling algorithms Initially, systems linked silvicultural and transportation decision making with a view to improving the financial returns from

forestry investments (Weintraub and Navon, 1976; Kirby et al., 1980; and Kirby et al., 1981) With

increasing awareness of the importance of the spatial pattern on many ecosystem functions, new

planning techniques were developed to integrate ecosystem and economic goals Bettinger et al

(2002) describe a variety of heuristic techniques that can be used to solve these increasingly difficult spatial forest-planning problems The increase in computer storage and processing speeds now allows

larger data sets to be collected Decision-support tools are shifting from single-ownership planning models to regional models These models are emphasizing spatial processes across ownerships An example of such a model is the two-million-hectare model being completed in western Oregon where commodity production and wildlife habitats are modeled for a variety of ownership classes (Bettinger

The new emphasis in supply chain management is the changing of procedures Accurate delivery

of product and information through the supply chain has encouraged organizations to apply new technology to improve log tracking from the forest to the customers In the tropics, to reduce the illegal log trade, the emphasis is placed on log identification New techniques include identifying the log source with tags, paint, or chemical compounds that can be read by a detection device The amount of information contained in these tags can vary from identification of the source to more-detailed measurements including diameter, felling date, and the volume of wood contained in the logs

Paint, often combined with fluorescent or magnetic tracers, has frequently been used in association with log branding to identify ownership The U.S Department of Agriculture has used fluorescent tracers for over 20 years to detect log theft Recently, microtaggant tracers that can be

encoded to provide a tamper-proof method of declaring ownership of the logs have been used The

information contained in microtaggant paint must be read manually and is appropriate for describing

individual log features (Dykstra et al., 2002)

Bar codes have been attached to consumer products for well over 20 years and have been applied

in forestry for over 10 years (Olsen et al., 1977) These tags can hold a variety of information and are

commonly used in the log export trade Tags need to be manually attached to each log and remain attached until the log is consumed The tag must be visible so that it can be read by scanners The problem is that many of the materials used to create a durable tag interfere with pulping operations

A more recent method for identification is the radio-frequency-identification (RFID) tag The RFID tag responds when the correct radio frequency is encountered and does not need to be visible to

a scanner, as the card then transmits the stored information (Palmer, 1995) The tags can contain from as little as one byte of information to several thousand bytes Their drawbacks are their cost—a tag can cost around 30 cents—and the technical expertise required to program the information on to the tags Smart cards with embedded microprocessors can be used to hold cargo manifests; these are more suitable for the transportation of batches of logs by truck, rail, or vessel than for the individual

log (Dykstra et al., 2002) There is still a need for a new tagging technology that allows log

identification without interfering with pulping operations

The importance of environmental and other services related to forestry have increased, and some new

services have been introduced during the past decades (Pagiola et al., 2002) There is a great

diversity of forest services, for example, recreation, forest-related tourism, conservation, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, regulation of hydrological flows, mushroom and berry picking, hunting, forest fire prevention, and “virtual” forests Typically, many of these services are considered as nonmarket

services; however, some, for example, tourism and mushroom picking, do have markets that function well ICT has had important implications for all these services Some of these are related to the fact that ICT has changed the way societies view or value forests This societal perspective will become clearer when we discuss the environmental issues related to forests

Forest-related services are a vast topic, and not all can be covered here The analysis is restricted

to topics relating to environmental issues, recreation and tourism, and virtual forests; these serve to illustrate the many-sided impacts that ICT has already had on forest issues

2.6.1 Environmental issues and ICT

The electronic media helps to make us aware of the forest-related environmental issues taking place

on the other side of the world Thus, people in Europe can be alerted, for instance, to a campaign currently being run by Greenpeace to save rain forests on the other side of the globe, for example, in Pará State in the Amazon region of Brazil According to Greenpeace, Pará has lost an area of rainforest the size of Austria, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Switzerland combined We can learn of this campaign through the Internet and the Greenpeace Web page (http://www.greenpeace.org) The campaign immediately brings to mind pictures of clear-cut rainforest in Amazon, logging machines, and environmental activists chaining themselves to trees We may never have had first-hand experience of these activities, but we will have seen such images many times before—on television Television puts the issue into words and pictures and thus makes it more concrete Irrespective of whether the facts and views provided by the media are objective, they catch our attention

This story serves to illustrate how ICT has been an essential driving force in putting across the message of the environmental movement and in internationalizing forest-related environmental issues It seems appropriate to assume that, with the help of electronic media and the Internet, issues such as the spotted owl conflict in the U.S Pacific Northwest in the 1980s and 1990s or the rainforest deforestation issue in the Amazon region, did manage to gain much wider attention than would have been possible through conventional print media This trend has also had implications for forest industry operations, as the following example will show

In September 1997 the third-largest paper company in the world, UPM, based in Finland, announced an alliance with the Indonesian pulp manufacturer APRIL, the aim being to integrate the fine-paper operations of the two companies in Asia UPM’s involvement with APRIL drew immediate fire from environmental groups because of the Indonesian company's logging of old-growth forests and questions of workers’ rights Environmental groups mobilized international action against the plan in the media and on the Internet This pressure from environmental groups was influential to the extent that in September 1999, UPM announced its withdrawal from a proposed broad international alliance with APRIL In today’s world, where rapid communication and the linking of different pressure groups around the world is possible (e.g., through the Internet and e-mail), forest industry companies have to take much greater account of the potential effects of their operations

To summarize, environmental groups have actively utilized the opportunities provided by the electronic media and the Internet to promote their issues Their campaign strategy is to gain large media coverage to attract public attention to their issues—and also to collect financial resources For example, Greenpeace is advertising the chance to become a Greenpeace cyberactivist member, receive occasional emergency campaign alerts, participate in online discussions, and even maintain a personal home page (http://www.greenpeace.org/; last accessed December 2004)

Environmental groups are, of course, not the only interest groups to have used ICT to promote their own forest-related issues Similar strategies are utilized, for example, by the forest industry, but perhaps with less success The side-effects of this may be that the media tend to play a central role in exacerbating forest-related environmental issues (Nie, 2003) Drama, conflict, and polarization are often prerequisites for getting the message across through the media According to Nie (2003), interest groups frame an issue in the most polarizing way possible to get media attention, or the media take an environmental issue and polarize it as much as possible to “infotain” their customers

In the present context, it is significant that the tool enabling all this is ICT Today, people can react immediately to forest issues raised on the other side of the world Consequently, the operations of forest industry companies and forestry practices regarding environmental issues have both tended to become more similar in different continents In principle, in today’s Information Society the same rules have to be followed wherever the companies operate

2.6.2 Recreation and tourism

ICT, as this study shows, has changed the societies in which we live and our everyday lives in many ways Recreation and nature tourism cannot escape these changes Technology has always had important implications for recreation and tourism—as in the role of the automobile In the twentieth century, allowing cars into nature parks directly led to increased public support for parks, a boom in outdoor recreation, and the creation of additional parks (Shultis, 2001) Of course, there have been downsides to this development, such as increased congestion, environmental impacts, and commercialization of the parks What have been the major impacts of ICT on forest-related recreation and tourism?

Forest tourism has started to play an increasingly important role in the rural areas of many countries, and in some cases it may even be the main economic activity This type of tourism can be either mass tourism, for example, to a well-known national park, or it can be mainly orientated toward individual needs, for example, renting a cabin in a remote area The providers of these services vary from individuals or family-based firms to large multinational companies All have found ICT of benefit to their business and services Small recreation providers can particularly benefit from ICT Their problem used to be limited resources in comparison with those of mass or industrial tourism providers Small companies were then traditionally unable to pay for advertising, making it difficult to supply information to customers (particularly those in other countries) about the availability of recreation Using the Internet and e-mail has turned out to be an effective tool, and communities have also found it beneficial to attract tourists via the Internet A typical example is the

New Forest Tourism Guide (http://www.new-forest-tourism.com/), the Internet site that provides

information on the attractions of forests in the county of Hampshire in southern England The menus

on the Web page allow viewers to navigate around the tourist sites related to forests in that area The increasing number of people using the Internet and computers has also affected the services that organizations involved in forest-related recreation and tourism provide National parks, for example, use Internet pages to advertise and to inform visitors about various issues related to the parks (see, for example, http://www.nps.gov/; http://www.outdoors.fi) They also use ICT, for example, to monitor visitor activity Melville and Ruohonen (2004) describe how a system based on GSM communications is used for visitor counting on one of the 170 national nature reserves in England A prime requirement of the system was that it should involve a minimal amount of field staff time to harvest the data In general, ICT increasingly provides the necessary tools for the

efficient planning and management of natural parks Table 2.1 illustrates some of the ICT-based

impacts on national park managers (Shultis, 2001)

While most recreation seekers use technology to visit the backcountry, an increasing number visit the backcountry to use their technology (Shultis, 2001) For example, a mobile phone, handheld computer, or computer clock with, for example, GPS, compass, altitude and weather monitor, and heart rate monitor, may motivate people to visit areas where such equipment can be used to its full advantage One often-expressed negative example, with no direct ICT content, is the off-road use of four-wheel-drive jeeps (SUVs) to visit remote locations not reachable with conventional cars Another side-effect of ICT in this context is the tendency of some people to rely too heavily on the technology rather than their own personal resources, with expensive repercussions if the technology fails and, for example, search parties having to be sent out

Table 2.1 Categories of ICT impacts on park management

Category Examples Impacts Major implications/issues Communication Radio, cellular, and

digital phones, GIS, GPS, datalink watches, handheld computers

More rapid linkages to other groups;

expectation that trips

to remote backcountry can stay “connected”

Information TV, Internet, videos Increased awareness,

use, and appreciation;

more informed public;

increased options and opportunities

Primarily external-driven messages: managers will be forced to respond to images portrayed by commercial interests and provide their own

Tools for planning

and management

Visitor and wildlife monitoring

Better information on visitors and wildlife

More efficient and costly management Adapted and modified from Shultis (2001)

“Let your screen take you away to a quiet place in the forest Watch the little peaceful bugs and ants

running about their business A funny little spider making a web Dew drops on the leaves Birds

twittering somewhere in the branches above… This screensaver will immerse you into the peaceful

environment of the forest life that will make you forget about all your problems! Allow yourself to

experience the sense of calm serenity that comes from disconnecting from the feeling that you have

to “do” something.” This quotation is from the advertisement of the three-dimensional computer

screensaver “Forest Life 3D” (http://www.astrogemini.com/forest.html) The example illustrates the

fact that ICT can be used to generate “forest-like” virtual experiences

According to Levi and Kocher (1999), in the future, virtual reality technology will allow people

to experience nature in a simulated environment—virtual nature The authors have in mind

computer-generated virtual environments, where people can also simulate activities However, this is already

happening today (e.g., with three-dimensional and interactive video games) Searching Google with

the words “virtual forest” results in a large number of Internet pages detailing where virtual forests

can be experienced in various parts of the world Moreover, nature films have already been with us

for decades, providing visual virtual journeys to forests all over the world, without the viewer ever

needing to leave the couch What have been the implications of such virtual possibilities for forests,

if any?

Levi and Kocher (1999) study how the increased use of information technology affects people’s

relationship with the natural environment Among the issues studied are:

• What effect will the use of virtual nature have on people and their relationship with

nature? Will it cause people to devalue real nature?

• What effect will the use of this technology have on natural environments and the way we

treat them?

Before discussing their findings, it is helpful to outline why these questions may be relevant and

important

There is apparently a concern that modern information technology could cause people to lose interest in real nature The argument typically goes that nature films, commercials, and photographs (e.g., on the Internet or in nature calendars) present images of exceptional or monumental landscapes, such as giant redwoods and colorful rain forests with exotic fauna, often in a spectacular light setting Such exposure to very beautiful natural environments is believed to cause people to devalue nonspectacular natural environments (Knighton, 1993; McKibben, 1996) The “more normal” woodlots may appear bland and uninteresting in comparison, and people may not enjoy them or care what happens to them because they fail to live up to their expectations Why should one visit natural environments that are less beautiful than the simulated ones you can experience at home—without the mosquitoes? Knighton (1993) describes this effect as “nature pornography.” Moreover, television commercials, for example, may influence the way people utilize forests Instead of forests being a place for hiking and nature, they become just one more place to enjoy a Coke According to McKibben (1996), the expanded use of information technology of all kinds exacerbates these phenomena

Virtual nature could also be beneficial for forests For example, it may raise people’s awareness

of endangered species and programs to save forests, as with environmental groups’ utilization of ICT Virtual nature could also be used to solve problems regarding habitat preservation programs, such as how to allow people to experience environmental preserves without damaging their resources For example, it could allow people to stay in cities rather than travel to the countryside, cutting down on traffic and air pollution and preserving the natural environment For some people virtual forests could

be an environmentally friendly substitute for visits to real forests Moreover, as Lee et al (2003)

note, for older adults experiencing gradual physical decline and other age-related problems, visits to a virtual forest may maintain connectivity to “nature” and promote psychological well-being

From a survey conducted among students at Cal Poly, California, Levi and Kocher (1999) found that enjoyment of the electronic media’s depiction of nature correlates positively with support for the preservation and maintenance of national parks and forests but negatively with the preservation and acquisition of local natural areas They found that this devaluing effect would be likely to increase as new, virtual-reality technologies become commercially available Overall, the results suggest that there are some dangers in the increasing use of information technology to simulate environments The authors stress, however, that their study has a number of limitations; their findings should be interpreted as indicating a possibility of “ordinary” nature being devalued rather than providing strong empirical evidence of it

To summarize, it appears that ICT has already influenced how some people view forests To a degree, it resembles the issue of choosing between a plastic or real Christmas tree—something that has already impacted the Christmas tree market and people’s purchasing habits It seems safe to assume that, with the development of ICT, the impacts of virtual forests will become ever more important

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Chapter 3 Surprising Futures

Trina Innes, Carol Green, and Alan Thomson

This chapter presents a cautionary tale about our ability to predict the future impacts of ICT on the forest sector In succeeding chapters, the authors use their experience and research to forecast how information technology may change the future of forestry Our chapter puts those visions into perspective We ask: how can the past help us understand what to expect from future innovations? Innovation is different from invention Invention is the creation of a new idea, product, or concept (Cook and Mayes, 1996). Innovation implies a change in what was being done before It is taking an idea, product, or process, and adapting it to fit either a new situation or one that is perceived as new by the adopter Adaptation may involve the transfer of technology from one domain

to another or the evolution of an idea

The Centre for Innovation Studies (2004) identifies three types of innovations:

• Incremental Innovations are described as small improvements They represent continuous

improvements and can often be predicted with confidence They generally cause little disruption to existing activities and generally build on existing products or ideas (e.g., Moore’s Law)

• Radical Innovations represent new technologies or ideas that completely displace existing

approaches or require extensive changes in business practices These changes are discontinuous and disrupt the traditional way of doing things

• General Purpose Technologies are huge innovations that cause foundational and far-reaching

changes in the world The waterwheel, steam power, electricity, internal combustion engine, railways, and the Internet are among the most prominent general purpose innovations They share four characteristics:

–Wide scope for improvement and elaboration;

–Wide range of uses;

–Potential for use in a wide range of products and processes; and

–Strong complementarity with other technologies

Josty (2001) suggests that no one can predict radical innovations but that it is possible to predict incremental innovations In 1965 George Moore of Intel predicted that the number of transistors on a silicon chip would double every 18 to 24 months (Statistics Canada, 2004) This prediction has held true because it is based on a single technology—photolithography When the nature of the technology changes, the algorithm or methods used for forecasting may no longer be valid

The computer industry is full of casual predictions that underestimated the impact of computing technology In 1943 Thomas J Watson, the chairman of IBM, is said to have predicted a world market of five computers (Wikipedia, 2004) Today, computers are atop the desk of almost every business in the world and becoming a common fixture in many homes

Forecasting the future is risky(see Box 3.1), but even predictions that fail to come true can help

steer us away from negative consequences Innovations do not always produce their intended effect Some innovations develop faster than expected; others produce unintended results We may not know enough to anticipate the impacts of innovation or the cumulative effect that many small changes may cause Results can be far removed from the initial innovation and are often hard to track In this and other ways, it is fair to assume that technology is shaping our future (Gaines, 1991)

Seddon (1989) suggests:

The preoccupation with the present which arises because history is neglected means

that the relationship between past, present and future is taken-for-granted The links

between past, present and future remain unexplored and the processes by which

change occurs over time are insufficiently analysed

In the past some suggested that drilling into the ground for oil was crazy, that movies didn’t need sound, and that everything had already been invented After examining hundreds of technology forecasts, Schnaars (1989) found that most people exhibit a myopia that causes them to focus on the

future in terms of present conditions The results often make fools of the forecasters (see Box 3.1)

(Schnaars, 1989)

Box 3.1 Forecasting the future is risky

“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy.”

Drillers whom Edwin L Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of

communication The device is inherently of no value to us.”

Western Union internal memo, 1876

“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”

Commissioner, U.S Office of Patents, 1899

“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”

Warner Brothers, 1927

“But what is it good for?”

Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the

microchip

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”

President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

In evaluating predictions such as those in Box 3.1, it must be borne in mind that some statements

may be made in an attempt to maintain competitive advantage or for tactical policy purposes For example, a mainframe computer maker in the 1970s could have had tactical reasons to downplay the role of desktop computers On the other hand, developers of new technology tend to overestimate the impacts, as illustrated by some early projections for remote sensing and artificial intelligence

In spite of the failures illustrated in Box 3.1, there have been notable successes in ICT

forecasting, such as the “infostructure” proposed by Bush (1945), which might be seen as a precursor

to hypertext, the Internet, and the World Wide Web Subsequent predictions by Greenberger (1964), who paid tribute to “the remarkable clarity of Dr Bush’s vision,” were equally perceptive Similarly, Kahn and Wiener (1967) presented their list of “One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century.” Panelists judged that 80% of the forecasts relating to computers and communications had occurred by the end of the century (Albright, 2002) Only 18%

of the innovations forecast for aerospace were judged to have occurred Ranked by a selection of panelists, the ten best forecasts as recorded by Albright (2002) are:

1 Inexpensive high-capacity, worldwide, regional, and local (home and business) communication (perhaps using satellites, lasers, and light pipes);

2 Pervasive business use of computers;

3 Direct broadcasts from satellites to home receivers;

4 Multiple applications for lasers and masers for sensing, measuring, communication, cutting, welding, power transmission, illumination, and destructive (defensive) use;

5 Extensive use of high-altitude cameras for mapping, prospecting, census, and geological investigations;

6 Extensive and intensive centralization (or automatic interconnection) of current and past personal and business information in high-speed data processors;

7 Other widespread use of computers for intellectual and professional assistance (translation, traffic control, literature search, design, and analysis);

8 Personal “pagers” (perhaps even two-way pocket phones);

9 Simple inexpensive home video recording and playing; and

10 Practical home and business use of “wired” video communication for both telephone and television (possibly including retrieval of taped material from libraries) and rapid transmission and reception of facsimiles

Predictions are possible when there are trends in underlying technology Albright (2002) suggests that semiconductors, computing, storage, and optics will continue to grow into the future Forecasts based on these technologies will likely yield more predictable innovations

We have chosen to use Rogers’ innovation diffusion theory as a framework for our discussion Rogers (1995) suggests that an innovation is “an idea, practice or objective that is perceived as new

to an individual or another unit of adoption.” Innovations in the forest industry can be classified as a product, a process, or a business system innovation (Hovgaard and Hansen, 2004) Process includes technologies; business systems include new ideas

Following a brief introduction to diffusion theory, we present three case studies Each case study examines the situation leading up to the innovation, how the innovation was adopted, and both the predictable consequences and unintended impacts of the innovation We focus on the chainsaw (product), Internet (process), and sustainable development (idea)

3.2.1 Innovation diffusion theory

The innovation diffusion theory is well suited to forestry studies In his classic text on diffusion of innovations, Rogers (1995) indicates that many of the key studies in innovation use agricultural examples The adoption of innovations in forestry is attributed to the highly successful role of the agricultural extension services in the United States In recent years, innovation diffusion theory was applied to several areas of forestry—forest fire prevention (Hodgson, 2000), pulp export (Dalcomuni,

1998), participatory forestry extension (Kessy and Mtumbi, 1996), and wood product use (Fell et al.,

1997) In environmental settings, innovation diffusion theory was also applied to environmental

policy (Kern et al., 2001)

Rogers (1995) defines diffusion as “the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among members of a social system.” He identifies four key elements affecting diffusion of an innovation: the innovation itself, communication channels, time, and a social system Rogers applies the term “diffusion” to both the planned and unplanned (surprising) spread of innovations, primarily with respect to new technology Reinvention (modification of intended use) often occurs during the process of adoption and implementation and plays a significant role in some

of the case studies

People interact with five principal attributes of innovation

• Advantage is often financial, although social prestige, convenience, and satisfaction may also

be of benefit Advantage is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as better or worse than the existing way of doing things Most important is that individuals perceive the innovation as advantageous In many case studies, surprises are related to changes in the perception of relative advantage

• Compatibility is the degree to which the innovation is attuned to the values, experiences, and

needs of potential adopters, and surprises can also occur in relation to compatibility

• Complexity is the extent to which the innovation is perceived as difficult to understand or

use

• Trialability measures the ease with which people can try out the innovation One that can be

tried on an “installment plan” (adopted in parts) is more likely to be adopted This may reflect an individual’s attitude toward risk

• Observability is the degree to which others can examine the innovation in use, and the results

of its use

People exist within social systems and fall into five main categories of innovativeness (Rogers, 1995) True innovators or pioneers comprise less than 3% of the population The rest of the population is made up of 13% early adopters, 34% early majority, 34% late majority, and the remaining 16% laggards The adoption of innovations, therefore, follows a characteristic bell-shaped (cumulative S-shaped) curve over time and approaches normality

When innovations are introduced, people are often uncertain of their value Given this level of uncertainty, it is only pioneers who are willing to take the chance to master something new This is also the period during which the technology may show poorer performance than anticipated and when problems facing the technology are being improved

As the pioneers gain insight and share their experience, early adopters realize that the innovation

is within their reach During this period, technology advances as people “learn by doing” and share their feedback with others The early majority are quick to realize that many others are receiving benefits from the innovation As the innovation becomes more commonplace, the late majority adopt the technology, leaving the laggards who may never adopt the innovation for personal, financial, or philosophical reasons Eventually, technology may change or be usurped by new innovations, causing the cycle to begin again

An innovation can be desirable for one potential adopter and not for another The rate of adoption

of a new idea is affected by the old idea it replaces; thus, a highly compatible initial innovation can pave the way for less-compatible innovations, and negative experience with one innovation can impede the adoption of others Preventive innovations diffuse particularly slowly, as relative advantage may be far in the future and difficult to perceive (Rogers, 1995)

Kondratieff (1935) studied nineteenth-century economic, social, and cultural aspects of our life, which, he believed, could be used to predict future economic developments He observed world economic expansions and contractions and predicted that a cycle of economic depression, recovery, growth, and maturity would be about 54 years in length This is known as the Kondratieff Cycle Kondratieff detailed the number of years that the economy expanded and contracted during each part of the half-century-long cycle He outlined which industries suffer the most during the downwave and how technology plays a role in leading out of the contraction into the next upwave Often, upwave movements tied into the clustering of new technologies

The concept of the “technology cluster” is an important one for evaluating surprises in innovation adoption The diffusion of innovative technology clusters plays a major role in moving

economies out of depression (The Centre for Innovation Studies, 2004) Table 3.1 provides an outline

of major technological innovations and clustering since the 1700s

Table 3.1 Innovations resulting from clustering of technologies

Timing Features Transport/ communications Energy systems Key factors First

1780s–1840s

Industrial revolution

Canals, roads Water power Cotton

Steam power Coal, iron

Third

1890s–1940s

Electricity and steel

Railway (steel) telephone

Digital networks Gas/oil Microelectronics(Source: Freeman and Soete, 1997)

Many products require the confluence of a number of separate innovations for a breakthrough to occur This is a major thread running through our case studies

While the later adopters can often observe the advantage conferred on early adopters of an innovation, the pioneers must perceive advantage by some form of forecasting There are a variety of methods for forecasting the future impacts of a product, process, or idea Some people use quantitative approaches for modeling the future Others use qualitative methods that synthesize the experience and knowledge of experts, or even personal intuition

Many people believe that models are reliable predictors of the future, much like the laws of physics However, human behavior and technology adoption are both influenced by many factors, leading to unpredictable outcomes These factors generate erroneous forecasts Regardless, forecasts can provide insights into how things might unfold, which helps us to better manage the future (Koomey, 2000)

Other methods of forecasting include S-curve analysis, which provides a logical predictor akin to the diffusion theory Analogies and metaphors are generated based on historical developments Timelines supported by assumptions can estimate how things will develop in the future Often, it is the assumptions that prove to be flawed “Future stories” or backcasting is especially relevant to our case-history approach: one imagines oneself in a future situation—a possible, probable, or desirable future Using this as a starting point, a “history of the future” leading up to this situation is then written This can be done systematically, step-by-step, or intuitively Our case studies offer a variation of the backcasting approach

Evaluation of the history of adoption in the case studies illustrates that the nature of the adopted product, practice, or idea changes with time Later adopters may be responding to very different conditions than early adopters It is a combination of these conditions and other events that results in surprising outcomes

One way to ensure greater forecasting accuracy is to use more than one forecasting method Schwartz (1996) and Koomey (2000) recommend using a set of forecasts or scenarios for exploring the future Koomey clearly notes that the choices of today affect tomorrow The work we do today to forecast future forest conditions can help us make decisions that will reflect on better forest management in the future—and result in technologies to support this management

3.2.3 Abandonment

The rate of abandonment of an innovation can be as important as the rate of adoption in determining the level of use Discontinuance often relates to a “surprise” related to perceived advantage or

compatibility This is best illustrated by a brief example—use and abandonment of DDT diphenyl-trichloroethane)

(Dichloro-DDT was first synthesized in 1874 Researchers could not forecast the impact or predict the use

of DDT Its effectiveness as an insecticide was discovered only in 1939 Widespread adoption of DDT occurred because it presented adopters with high relative advantage—reasonable cost, effectiveness, persistence, and versatility—at a time when the world was at war and insect-borne disease was prevalent Following the war, many agricultural and forestry applications for DDT were developed

The relative advantage of persistence became the relative disadvantage of adoption The chemical accumulated and concentrated and passed up the food chain Recognition of the magnification in the food chain resulting in high toxicity to nontarget organisms culminated in the

1962 publication of Rachel Carson’s book, Silent Spring (Carson, 1962) DDT’s compatibility with

environmental values decreased Moreover, the second surprising result was that target organisms developed resistance to the pesticide, resulting in decreased control This negatively affected the relative advantage

As a consequence of these two surprising outcomes, DDT use was abandoned in much of the world DDT is still used in some countries to control disease, in particular to target malaria-carrying mosquitoes, and resumption of use of DDT is currently being explored This resumed interest in turn

is a “surprising future” for DDT It is due to the rapid resurgence of malaria, especially in Saharan Africa, as well as to changed modes of use that give better relative advantage DDT is used only within households where a very low dose can repel mosquitoes; widespread application for mosquito control is not carried out, avoiding environmental contamination (Raloff, 2000; Greenwood and Mutabingwa, 2002)

sub-3.2.4 Drivers and outcomes of innovation

The supply-push/demand-pull model, in which innovation is driven by a balance between customer demand (“demand pull”) and desire to market in-house developments (“supply push”), is commonly used as the basis of studies on drivers of innovation Ruttan (2002) discusses other theories such as induced innovation, evolutionary theory, and path dependence Different forces (push-predominating

or pull-predominating) can operate at different stages of the diffusion process, and political, technological, economic, and social restraining factors can also be significant (Tan and Teo, 1999) Outcomes of innovation can include increased efficiency, higher productivity, reduced costs, increased profits, and reduced employment Selection among possible innovations can involve trade-offs of capital and labor costs and lies in economic theories such as Schumpeter‘s theory of innovation (Ruttan, 2002) Schumpeter argued that innovation leads to a state of “creative destruction,” where innovations cause old products, skills, and processes to become obsolete, destroying established enterprises and creating new ones

century The demand for timber increased in the early nineteenth century in Great Britain to meet naval requirements and the need for square timbers (Stanton, 1976), and with the development of the pulp and paper industry around the world After modern steelmaking techniques were developed in the 1830s, the use of saws became more widespread During the first decades of the twentieth century, a one-man crosscut saw was created With the development of a debarking tool, the axe was supplanted by saws and was soon used only for removing branches from trees

Early forest workers often supplied their own tools, each of varying design and quality They chose how to work, what kinds of tools to use, and the time of day they worked The work hours were long and the labor hard, with forest workers often being paid piecework wages The stage was set for the innovation of a product that would reduce the intensity of labor and increase wages

Steam, electric, and internal combustion engines were all adapted for use with tools that made woodcutting easier and more efficient Many of these efforts were focused on early mill operations

Rosenburg et al., (1990) quote Scherer (1982) who “found that the forest products industry was

heavily dependent upon outside sources of technological change.” The chainsaw is one of the earliest examples

The chainsaw has its origins in the field of orthopedics Seufert (1980) reports that the German, Bernard Heine, a master of prosthetics, created the osteotome in 1830 The osteotome made it easy to cut through bone while avoiding the jarring impacts of the hammer and chisel and thus splinters The osteotome was the precursor of today’s chainsaw While manufacturers claim to have invented the first chainsaw in the 1920s, the 1830 osteotome predates the invention by almost a hundred years

An early chainsaw created by California inventor R L Muir required a crane for operation, limiting its commercial success In 1861 the Hamilton saw was created; it was hand-cranked by one

or two men and looked like a spinning wheel In the 1880s the Americans produced a riding saw; it looked like a rowing machine that cutters could sit on None of these products was commercially successful

3.3.1.2 Adoption of the Product

The world experienced a time lag of one century between the “idea” of a power saw and its successful innovation This was partly because of the lack of technology development World War I and World War II created clustering of various technologies, making new innovations possible Light metal technology made it possible to use aluminum and magnesium War researchers also created the light, gasoline-powered, air-cooled engine Separately, these two technologies provided the foundational requirements for the modern chainsaw

Andreas Stihl, a German mechanical engineer, patented the “Cutoff Chain Saw for Electric Power” in 1926 He is credited with the invention of the modern chainsaw; he patented the first gasoline-powered chainsaw in 1929, calling it the tree-felling machine

Chainsaws evolved from two-man units to lighter-weight, one-man units Diecast aluminum and magnesium components reduced saw weight More powerful direct-drive engines speeded cutting using a new “chipper” type chain that is still in use today This illustrates that significant innovations can occur in different aspects of the same device or process

According to Hjelm (1991), the introduction of the chainsaw can be examined from two perspectives—how the innovation changed the process of logging and its associated labor and how the workers themselves adjusted to the technical change He examines the adoption of chainsaws in Sweden, where it was not the industry that demanded the chainsaw, but forest workers

Workers adopting the chainsaw obtained a relative advantage over other workers Chainsaws offered opportunities to reduce the intensity of work in the forest and to increase financial returns In the early years, social status was tied to owning a chainsaw, although early chainsaws were heavy, cumbersome, and unreliable, decreasing their compatibility with the existing forest practices As the

technology developed, chainsaws became lighter and easier to use and maintain They became more affordable and gained broader acceptance by workers who could observe them in action

The rate and level of diffusion of chainsaw technology was influenced largely by the evolution of the technology itself Hjelm (1991) researched the reason why forest workers in Sweden adopted the chainsaw, an innovation that was available only at a cost twenty times that of a one-man crosscut saw In interviews with elderly forest workers, he learned:

• Early two-man chainsaws were heavy, clumsy, and not very reliable Forest companies owned the early machines and demonstrated their use to workers Few were satisfied with the performance of early chainsaws and continued to prefer the one-man crosscut saw

• Early buyers were pioneers, having rarely seen a chainsaw prior to their purchase Pioneers were attracted by the fact it would replace muscle power; they helped increase awareness of the chainsaw and the negative aspects that reduced its rate of adoption The technology brought issues that weighed on the worker Would the chainsaw start in the morning? Would they be able to maintain it? Information was shared by word of mouth and the decision was

an individual one

• In the 1950s, the reputation of chainsaws improved People were more pleased with the technology; this, in combination with persuasive advertising, made more workers think of buying one They purchased the chainsaw because they hoped to decrease their physical work and increase their wages

Not surprisingly, as chainsaws became lighter and easier to use, the level of adoption increased

In Australia, chainsaws increased the productivity of fellers, changed the structure of logging work, and introduced new hazards The 1940s and 1950s saw their greatest growth Chainsaws have undergone improvements in design and weight reduction The chainsaw is now an indispensable tool

in the logging industry and a common domestic tool (Crowe, 1983) That said, the larger harvesting machines introduced in the 1970s and 1980s have replaced many forestry workers; the chainsaw is now limited to environments that are too hazardous or too difficult for harvesting machinery

3.3.1.3 Predictable Consequences and Unintended Results

One of the major principles in defining innovation is making changes to maintain or improve competitiveness (North and Smallbone, 2000) Chainsaws were a product innovation developed to improve the competitiveness of individual loggers Developed for the forest industry, the chainsaw has been adopted by the agricultural and construction industries, as well as by individual users Futurists often predict the future by extrapolating from the technology of the present In the 1800s, anyone predicting the future would have thought in terms of machines being powered by steam There were no gasoline engines then What was surprising in the 1800s would not be surprising in the 1900s Gasoline-powered chainsaws were not a surprise after the creation of the gasoline engine Many leaps in innovation occur as different technologies merge In 1830 the concept for a chainsaw was proposed, but it was a hundred years before technology permitted the concept to

be realized, and it was years later that chainsaws were commonly used

The diffusion of innovations can experience a lag until the technology catches up with the improvements that made an innovation useful When the technology is widely adopted, there can be other consequences One of the surprises of chainsaws was the deforestation of the Amazon Without the chainsaw and the associated large-scale deforestation of the Amazon, would the world have experienced the sustainable development movement?

The adoption of chainsaws also saw unintended consequences There were increases in unintended injuries and in the severity of forest worker injuries (Crowe, 1983) Full-time users of chainsaws were subjected to the hazards of noise and vibration, causing loss of hearing and

“vibration-induced white finger” or numbness The loss of sensation in fingers and palms of forest workers was especially prevalent in colder areas of operation (Crowe, 1983) Carrying chainsaws