doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2017.01.334 ScienceDirect 6XVWDLQDEOH&LYLOQJLQHHULQJ6WUXFWXUHVDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DWHULDOV6&6&0 3URGXFLQJDOWHUQDWLYHFRQFHSWIRUWKH7UDQV6XPDWHUDWROOURDG SURMHFWGHYHORSPH
Trang 1Procedia Engineering 171 ( 2017 ) 265 – 273
1877-7058 © 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of SCESCM 2016.
doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2017.01.334
ScienceDirect
6XVWDLQDEOH&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ6WUXFWXUHVDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ0DWHULDOV6&(6&0 3URGXFLQJDOWHUQDWLYHFRQFHSWIRUWKH7UDQV6XPDWHUDWROOURDG
SURMHFWGHYHORSPHQWXVLQJORFDWLRQTXRWLHQWPHWKRG
0RKDPPHG$OL%HUDZLD E3HUGDQD0LUDMDF+DGL0XO\DQWRD
a Civil Engineering Department, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia
b Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia
c Civil Engineering Department, Universitas Pancasila, Jakarta, Indonesia
$EVWUDFW
7KH7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDG7675LVRQHRI,QGRQHVLD¶VPHJDSURMHFWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQGLVSODQQHGWRVWUHWFKDORQJ1RUWKHUQ 6XPDWHUD SURYLQFHV IURP $FHK WR 1RUWK 6XPDWHUD IRU DERXW NP &XUUHQWO\ WKH SURMHFW GHYHORSPHQW LV RQO\ IHDVLEOH LQ SDUWLFXODUURXWHVGXHWRKLJKLQYHVWPHQWFRVWVDQGOLPLWHGGHPDQGIRUUHYHQXH7KLVSDSHUZLOOLQYHVWLJDWHWKHEHVWDOWHUQDWLYHURXWH E\FRQVLGHULQJUHODWHGDVSHFWVWRLPSURYHLWVYLDELOLW\7KHUHVHDUFKPHWKRGXVHGDFRPELQDWLRQRITXDQWLWDWLYHDQGTXDOLWDWLYH DSSURDFKHVWKURXJKGHVNVWXG\DQGLQGHSWKLQWHUYLHZV7KLVUHVHDUFKSURGXFHGRSWLPXPURXWHIRUWKH1RUWKHUQ6XPDWHUDDUHDDQG DOVRUHYHDOHGGRPLQDQWVHFWRUVIRUERWKSURYLQFHV
7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG
3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKHRUJDQL]LQJFRPPLWWHHRI6&(6&0
Keywords:+LJKZD\,QIUDVWUXFWXUH,QGRQHVLD/RFDWLRQ4XRWLHQW5HJLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW5RXWH6HOHFWLRQ7ROO5RDGV
,QWURGXFWLRQ
,QIUDVWUXFWXUHSOD\VVLJQLILFDQWUROHLQLQFUHDVLQJQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGFUHDWLQJHFRQRPLFPRELOLW\IRU FLYLOLDQV7KHTXDQWLW\DQGTXDOLW\RILQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQDFRXQWU\DOVRGHWHUPLQHVLQYHVWPHQWDWWUDFWLYHQHVVIRUSULYDWH VHFWRUVDQGWKHQDWLRQ¶VFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVLQDJOREDOVFDOH>@$VRQHRIWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQWVHFWRUVURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQ ,QGRQHVLD KDV WR EH LPSURYHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQ WHUPV RI TXDQWLW\ TXDOLW\ DQG SURSHU JRYHUQPHQW PDQDJHPHQW
$FFRUGLQJWRWKH*OREDO&RPSHWLWLYHQHVV5HSRUWLQWKHTXDOLW\RIURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQ,QGRQHVLDSODFHGDW
E-mail address:PDEHUDZL#HQJXLDFLG
© 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of SCESCM 2016.
Trang 2IURPFRXQWULHV7KLVUHSRUWVKRZV,QGRQHVLD¶VLQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRQGLWLRQVWLOOEHKLQGQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHVVXFKDV 6LQJDSRUH0DOD\VLDDQG7KDLODQG,PSURYLQJ,QGRQHVLD¶VSRVLWLRQZLOOWKHQUHTXLUHPXWXDOFROODERUDWLRQDPRQJWKH JRYHUQPHQWDFDGHPLFVSULYDWHVHFWRUVDQGDOVRWKHVRFLHW\
,QGRQHVLD¶V JRYHUQPHQW KDV DWWHPSWHG WR PLQLPL]H WKH LQIUDVWUXFWXUH JDS SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH URDG VHFWRU E\ LQLWLDWLQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDGLQUHFHQW\HDUV7KLVPHJDSURMHFWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHUHTXLUHGKXJH LQYHVWPHQWVRIDERXWWULOOLRQUXSLDKWRFRQVWUXFWNLORPHWHUVZKLFKFRQQHFWV%DQGDU/DPSXQJLQ6RXWKHUQ 6XPDWHUDWR$FHKLQ1RUWKHUQ6XPDWHUD>@7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKLVSURMHFWZDVH[SHFWHGWRFUHDWHHTXDOLW\RIZHOIDUH E\FRQQHFWLQJDURDGQHWZRUNV\VWHPLQ6XPDWHUD,VODQG
0DQ\UHVHDUFKHUVKDYHEHHQVKRZQWKHEHQHILWVRIWROOURDGFRQVWUXFWLRQIRUYDULRXVDVSHFWVRIOLIHLQWKHLUUHVSHFWLYH ILQGLQJV 7ROO URDG FRQWULEXWLRQ UDQJLQJ IURP UHGXFLQJ WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ DQG ORJLVWLFV FRVWV DFFHOHUDWLQJ HFRQRPLF PRELOLW\>@RSHQLQJQHZMRERSSRUWXQLWLHVLQDJUHDWHUVFDOH>@FUHDWLQJLQGXVWULDODUHDVVXFKDVFHPHQWVWHHODQG FRQVWUXFWLRQVHUYLFHV>@LPSURYLQJLQYHVWPHQWDWWUDFWLYHQHVV>@DVZHOODVJHQHUDWLQJHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVDURXQG WKHUHJLRQ>@
+RZHYHUGHVSLWHLWVKXJHSRVLWLYHLPSDFWWRDFFHOHUDWHQDWLRQ¶VHFRQRPLFJURZWKWKH7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDG LVRQO\IHDVLEOHLQDVHOHFWHGSDUWRIWKHURXWH,QFRQWUDVWDVWKHVHFRQGFRQWULEXWRUIRUQDWLRQDO*'36XPDWHUD,VODQG KDVPDQ\SRWHQWLDODUHDVWKDWFDQEHGHYHORSHGIRUJUHDWHUSXUSRVH7KHUHIRUHWKHUHJLRQDOGHYHORSPHQWKDVWREH FRQVLGHUHGDVWKHPDLQDVSHFWLQGHWHUPLQLQJ6XPDWHUDSRWHQWLDOVHFWRUV,WUHTXLUHVLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIIHDWXUHGVHFWRUV LQHYHU\FLW\DQGGLVWULFWWKDWFDQEHXVHGDVDQLQSXWIRUWKHJRYHUQPHQWWRIRUPXODWHWKHEHVWSROLF\UHJDUGLQJWKLV PHJDSURMHFWGHYHORSPHQW
7KLVUHVHDUFKZLOOFUHDWHDOWHUQDWLYHVFRQFHSWIRU7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDGSURMHFWSDUWLFXODUO\LQ1DQJJURH$FHK 'DUXVVDODP DQG 1RUWK 6XPDWHUD SURYLQFHV E\ SURGXFLQJ QHZ URXWH VHOHFWLRQV ,W ZLOO FRQVLGHU *URVV 5HJLRQDO 'RPHVWLF3URGXFW*5'3DQGSRSXODWLRQLQERWKSURYLQFHV,WZLOOEHREWDLQHGIURPUHODWHGVRXUFHVIURPERRNV MRXUQDOV SXEOLF UHFRUGV DQG SXEOLVKHG UHSRUWV 7KH UHVHDUFK ILQGLQJV H[SHFWHG FDQ EH XVHG E\ WKH JRYHUQPHQW WR LQFUHDVHWKHIHDVLELOLW\RIWKHSURMHFWE\FRQVLGHULQJLWVDGGHGYDOXHDQGSRWHQWLDOHFRQRPLFJURZWK
5HVHDUFKPHWKRGRORJ\
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í@
/4LVDQLQGLUHFWPHDVXUHPHQWPHWKRGWKDWGHWHUPLQHVEDVLVDQGQRQEDVLVVHFWRUVE\XVLQJVHFRQGDU\GDWDIURP HFRQRPLFLQGLFDWRUVLQWKHUHJLRQSDUWLFXODUO\IURP*5'3SRSXODWLRQDQGZRUNIRUFHSHUVHFWRU7KHVHFRQGDU\GDWD ZLOOEHUHWULHYHGIURPERRNVSXEOLFUHFRUGVVXFKDV7KH$QQXDO6WDWLVWLF5HSRUWSROLFLHVDQGJRYHUQPHQWUHSRUWV /4PHDQVUDWLREHWZHHQWZRSURSRUWLRQV,WFRPSDUHVWKHUHODWLYHIXQFWLRQRIYDOXHIURPWKH*5'3RISURGXFWLRQ FRPPRGLW\VHFWRULQDUHJLRQWRWKHUHODWLYHIXQFWLRQIURPWKHZKROHYDOXHRI*5'3,QPDWKHPDWLFDOHTXDWLRQ/4 FDQEHIRUPXODWHGDVIROORZV
:KHUH
/4L /4YDOXHIRULVHFWRULQDGLVWULFW
HL *5'3IRULVHFWRULQDGLVWULFW
H *5'3ZKROHVHFWRULQDGLVWULFW
(L *5'3VHFWRULLQSURYLQFHRIWKHGLVWULFW
( *5'3ZKROHVHFWRULQSURYLQFHRIWKHGLVWULFW
/4ZLOOSURGXFHDFRHIILFLHQWIURPWRXQOLPLWHGYDOXH/4PHDQVWKHFRPPRGLW\VHFWRULQWKDWUHJLRQKDVQR FRPSDUDWLYHLQGXVWULDOFOXVWHU/4 LQGLFDWHVQRGLVWLQJXLVKLQJIHDWXUHIURPRQHUHJLRQWRWKHRWKHUV/4!VKRZV WKHLQYHVWLJDWHGVHFWRUKDVDFRPSDUDWLYHLQGXVWULDOVHFWRU
Trang 37KLV UHVHDUFK DOVR FRQGXFWHG LQGHSWK LQWHUYLHZV ZLWK UHODWHG VWDNHKROGHUV ZLWK D WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ EDFNJURXQG LQFOXGLQJRSHUDWRUVDFDGHPLFVDQGJRYHUQPHQWERGLHVZLWKPRUHWKDQ\HDUVRIH[SHULHQFH7KHLQVWUXPHQWVZLOO EHXVHDVHPLVWUXFWXUHGTXHVWLRQQDLUHZKLFKH[SHFWHGDVDYDOLGDWLRQUHJDUGLQJUHVHDUFKRXWSXW7KHLQWHUYLHZWDNHV
±PLQXWHVWRFROOHFWVXIILFLHQWGDWDIRUDQDO\VLV7KHTXHVWLRQVLQLQWHUYLHZVZLOOFRUUHODWHWRWKHUHVXOWRI/4 DQDO\VLVWKHUHIRUHERWKUHVXOWVIURPWKHLQGHSWKLQWHUYLHZDQG/4DQDO\VLVFDQEHFURVVFKHFNHGDQGLQFUHDVHVWKH YDOLGLW\DQGUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHUHVHDUFKRXWFRPHV
5HVXOWDQGGLVFXVVLRQ
3.1 Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam Province
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
7DEOH7DEOHRI*5'3DQG3RSXODWLRQIRU1DQJJURH$FHK'DUXVVDODP3URYLQFH
5DQN &LWLHV'LVWULFWV &DSLWDO *5'3
5S 1XPEHURI3RSXODWLRQ
5DQNLQJRI*5'3
&LW\RI/KRNVXHPDZH /KRNVXHPDZH
$FHK8WDUD'LVWULFW /KRNVXNRQ
&LW\RI%DQGD$FHK %DQGD$FHK
%LUHXQ'LVWULFW %LUHXQ
5DQNLQJRI3RSXODWLRQ
$FHK8WDUD'LVWULFW /KRNVXNRQ
$FHK7LPXU'LVWULFW ,GLUD\HXN
7KHURXWHVNHWFKLQJRI7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDGLQ1DQJJURH$FHK'DUXVVDODPSURYLQFHLVGHWHUPLQHGE\WKH UDQNLQJIURP7DEOH,WZLOOFRQQHFWWKHFLWLHVRI/KRNVHXPDZH/KRNVXNRQ%DQGD$FHK%LUHXQ6LJOLDQG,GLUD\HXN
%HVLGHVWKHFDSLWDOFLWLHVWKH/DQJNDW0LODQJVXEGLVWULFWDWWKHERUGHURI1$'DQG1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFHVDUH DOVRLQFOXGHGWRFRQQHFWWKHZKROHURXWHRI1RUWKHUQ6XPDWHUD
0RUHRYHUWKH*5'3YDOXHZDVDOVRLGHQWLILHGIURPWKHFRQVWDQWSULFHRI1$'SURYLQFH>@7KHGDWDVKRZV HFRQRPLFVHFWRUVLQVHOHFWHGVL[FLWLHVDQGGLVWULFWVRI1$'SURYLQFH7KHHFRQRPLFVHFWRULVPRVWO\JDLQHGIURP VWDWLVWLFV RI ,QGRQHVLD UDQJLQJ IURP DJULFXOWXUH PLQLQJ DQG H[FDYDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ LQGXVWU\ WR VHUYLFHV 7KH FRPSDULVRQRIWKHFLWLHVGLVWULFWVLQWHUPRIHFRQRPLFVHFWRUVLVVKRZQLQ7DEOH
Trang 4
1R (FRQRPLF6HFWRUV &LW\RI
/KRNVXHPDZH
$FHK8WDUD
'LVWULFW
&LW\RI%DQGD
$FHK
%LUHXQ
'LVWULFW
3LGLH
'LVWULFW
$FHK7LPXU
'LVWULFW
*5'3727$/RI
$FHK3URYLQFH
$JULFXOWXUH
0LQLQJDQG
([FDYDWLRQ
3URFHVVLQJ,QGXVWU\
(OHFWULFLW\*DVDQG
:DWHU
%XLOGLQJV
7UDGH+RWHODQG
5HVWDXUDQW
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG
&RPP
)LQDQFH5HDO(VWDWH
DQG%XVLQHVV
6HUYLFHV
727$/
%DVHGRQ7DEOH/4YDOXHIRUVHOHFWHGFLWLHVGLVWULFWVLQ1DQJJURH$FHK'DUXVVDODPWKHQFDOFXODWHG)RULQVWDQFH FLW\ RI /KRNVXHPDZH KDV D YDOXH RI DJULFXOWXUH VHFWRU RI DERXW HL D *5'3 YDOXH DURXQG
HWRWDO*5'3RIDJULFXOWXUHVHFWRUDERXW(LDQG7RWDO*5'3IURPRYHUDOO HFRQRPLFVHFWRUVDERXW(8VLQJWKH/4IRUPXODDVWKHEDVLVFLW\RI/KRNVXHPDZHKDV/4
6LQFHWKHYDOXHLVEHORZLWFDQEHFRQFOXGHGWKDWDJULFXOWXUHLVQRWWKHPDLQSRWHQWLDOVHFWRUWREHIXUWKHU GHYHORSHGLQWKLVFLW\$VLPLODUFDOFXODWLRQDSSURDFKWKHQDOVRFRQGXFWHGIRUHYHU\HFRQRPLFVHFWRUDQGVHOHFWHG FLWLHVGLVWULFWV/4YDOXHFDOFXODWLRQLVVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH
7DEOH/4YDOXHLQ1DQJJURH$FHK'DUXVVDODP3URYLQFH
1R (FRQRPLF6HFWRUV &LW\RI
/KRNVHXPDZH
$FHK8WDUD
'LVWULFW
&LW\RI
%DQGD$FHK
%LUHXHQ
'LVWULFW
3LGLH
'LVWULFW
$FHK7LPXU 'LVWULFW
0LQLQJDQG([FDYDWLRQ
(OHFWULFLW\*DVDQG:DWHU
7UDGH+RWHODQG5HVWDXUDQW
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQ
)LQDQFH5HDO(VWDWHDQG%XVLQHVV
)XUWKHUPRUHXVLQJDURXWHVNHWFKLQJWHFKQLTXHWKURXJKJRRJOHHDUWKVRIWZDUHWKHWRWDORI7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO 5RDGLQ1$'SURYLQFHLVHVWLPDWHGWREHDERXWNP$URXWHYLVXDOL]DWLRQFDQEHVHHQLQ)LJ
Trang 5)LJ5RXWHVNHWFKRI1DQJJURH$FHK'DUXVVDODPSURYLQFH
7KLVUHVHDUFKSURGXFHVDQDOWHUQDWLYHURXWHFRPSDUHGWRWKHH[LVWLQJURXWHDVVKRZQLQ)LJ7KHSURSRVHGURXWH GHWHUPLQHV/KRNVXNRQDVWKHFDSLWDOFLW\RI1RUWK$FHKGLVWULFWWREHLQFOXGHGLQ7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDG7KH UHDVRQ EHKLQG WKLV VHOHFWLRQ LV GHULYHG IURP LWV SRWHQWLDO WKDW VKRZV D JUHDW QXPEHU RI SRSXODWLRQ DQG *5'3
$FFRUGLQJ WR VWDWLVWLFV LW KDV WKH KLJKHVW SRSXODWLRQ LQ WKH 1$' SURYLQFH RI DERXW LQKDELWDQWV ZLWK 5S
RI*5'3DQGSODFHGVHFRQGKLJKHVWIURPRWKHUGLVWULFWV
0RUHRYHU/4DQDO\VLVKDVSURGXFHGHFRQRPLFVHFWRUVWKDWSRWHQWLDOO\JHQHUDWHUHJLRQDOLQFRPH%DVHGRQ7DEOH
WKHKLJKHVWYDOXHZLWKLV$FHK7LPXUGLVWULFWIRUPLQLQJDQGH[FDYDWLRQIROORZHGE\WKHFLW\RI/KRNVHXPDZH ZLWKIRULWVSURFHVVLQJLQGXVWU\DQG$FHK8WDUDGLVWULFWZLWKIRULWVPLQLQJDQGH[FDYDWLRQ
)XUWKHUPRUHVL[FLWLHVGLVWULFWVLQ1$'SURYLQFHKDYHDWOHDVWWZRSRWHQWLDOHFRQRPLFVHFWRUVWKDWFDQEHGHYHORSHG WRLQFUHDVHORFDOFRPSHWLWLYHQHVV7KHFLW\RI%DQGD$FHKKDVILYHSRWHQWLDOVHFWRUVIURPHOHFWULFLW\JDVDQGZDWHU 7UDGH+RWHODQG5HVWDXUDQW7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQ)LQDQFH5HDO(VWDWHDQG%XVLQHVVDQGVHUYLFHV 0HDQZKLOHWKHFLW\RI/KRNVHXPDZHKDVWKHORZHVWSRWHQWLDOZLWKRQO\SURFHVVLQJLQGXVWU\DQG7UDGH+RWHODQG 5HVWDXUDQW7KHRWKHUIRXUFLWLHVGLVWULFWVKDYHWZRXSWRIRXUSRWHQWLDOHFRQRPLFVHFWRUV
3.2 North Sumatera Province
0HDQZKLOHIURPFLWLHVGLVWULFWVLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFHIRXURIWKHPZHUHVHOHFWHGDVWKHKLJKHVWLQWHUPV RI*5'3DQGSRSXODWLRQ,QWHUPVRI*5'3WKHUHDUHWKH&LW\RI0HGDQ'HOL6HUGDQJ'LVWULFW/DQJNDW'LVWULFWDQG
%DWXEDUD'LVWULFW:KLOHWKH&LW\RI0HGDQ'HOL6HUGDQJ'LVWULFW/DQJNDW'LVWULFWDQG6LPDOXQJXQ'LVWULFWEHFRPH PDMRUFRQWULEXWRUVLQWHUPVRISRSXODWLRQ7KHGHWDLOUDQNLQJIURPERWK*5'3DQGSRSXODWLRQFDQEHVHHQLQ7DEOH
7DEOH7DEOHRI*5'3DQG3RSXODWLRQIRU1RUWK6XPDWHUD3URYLQFH
5DQN &LWLHV'LVWULFWV &DSLWDO *5'3
5S 1XPEHURI3RSXODWLRQ
5DQNLQJRI*5'3
&LW\RI0HGDQ 0HGDQ
'HOL6HUGDQJ'LVWULFW /XEXNSDNDP
/DQJNDW'LVWULFW 6WDEDW
%DWXEDUD'LVWULFW /LPDSXOXK
5DQNLQJRI3RSXODWLRQ
&LW\RI0HGDQ 0HGDQ
'HOL6HUGDQJ'LVWULFW /XEXNSDNDP
([LVWLQJ5RXWH
3URSRVHG5RXWH
/HJHQG
Trang 6%DVHGRQWKHWDEOHDERYHWKHURXWHVNHWFKLQJRI7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDGLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFHZLOOFRQQHFW FLW\RI0HGDQ/XEXNSDNDP6WDEDW/LPD3XOXKDQG5D\D7KLVURXWHH[FOXGHV0HGDQ±6LEROJDDVVWDWHGLQH[LVWLQJ URXWH&LW\RI6LEROJDKDVDORZ*5'3WULOOLRQUXSLDKDQGORZSRSXODWLRQLQKDELWDQWV7KHURXWHDOVR LQFOXGHV/DQJNR%DQJNRDQJVXEGLVWULFWDWWKHERUGHURI1RUWK6XPDWHUDDQG5LDXWRFRQQHFW1RUWKHUQ6XPDWHUDWR
&HQWUDO6XPDWHUD
)URPWKH7DEOH*5'3YDOXHDOVRKDVEHHQLGHQWLILHGIURPFRQVWDQWSULFHRI1$'SURYLQFH>@'HWDLOVFDQEH VHHQLQ7DEOH
7DEOH*5'3LQ1RUWK6XPDWHUD3URYLQFHIRUYDULRXVHFRQRPLFVHFWRU
1R (FRQRPLF6HFWRUV &LW\RI
0HGDQ
'HOL6HUGDQJ
'LVWULFW
/DQJNDW
'LVWULFW
%DWXEDUD
'LVWULFW
6LPDOXQJXQ
'LVWULFW
*5'3727$/RI 16XPDWHUD 3URYLQFH
$JULFXOWXUH
0LQLQJDQG([FDYDWLRQ
3URFHVVLQJ,QGXVWU\
(OHFWULFLW\*DVDQG
%XLOGLQJV
7UDGH+RWHODQG
5HVWDXUDQW
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG
&RPP
)LQDQFH5HDO(VWDWH
DQG%XVLQHVV
6HUYLFHV
727$/
%DVHGRQ7DEOH/4YDOXHVIRUHDFKFLW\DQGGLVWULFWLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUDFDQEHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKH/4IRUPXOD 0RUHGHWDLOLQIRUPDWLRQFDQEHVHHQLQ7DEOH
7DEOH/4YDOXHLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUD3URYLQFH
1R (FRQRPLF6HFWRUV &LW\RI
0HGDQ
'HOL6HUGDQJ
'LVWULFW
/DQJNDW
'LVWULFW
%DWXEDUD
'LVWULFW
6LPDOXQJXQ 'LVWULFW
(OHFWULFLW\*DVDQG:DWHU
7UDGH+RWHODQG5HVWDXUDQW
7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQ
)LQDQFH5HDO(VWDWHDQG%XVLQHVV
%DVHG RQ 7DEOH WKH KLJKHVW YDOXH ZLWK LV /DQJNDW GLVWULFW IRU PLQLQJ DQG H[FDYDWLRQ IROORZHG E\ 6LPDOXQJXQGLVWULFWZLWKIRULWVDJULFXOWXUH%DWXEDUDGLVWULFWZLWKIRULWVSURFHVVLQJLQGXVWU\/DQJNDW GLVWULFWZLWKIRULWVDJULFXOWXUHDQGFLW\RI0HGDQZLWKIRULWV)LQDQFH5HDO(VWDWHDQG%XVLQHVVVHFWRU 8VLQJWKHDERYHDQDO\VLVDVWKHEDVLVWRWDOOHQJWKRIWKH7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDGLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFH ZLOOEHDERXWNP5RXWHYLVXDOL]DWLRQFDQEHVHHQLQ)LJ
Trang 7)RU1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFHWKLVUHVHDUFKSURGXFHVDQHZURXWHIURP/LPD3XOXK±7HELQJ7LQJJLDQG5D\D± 3HPDWDQJ6LDQWDU7KHFRQVLGHUDWLRQLQVHOHFWLQJWKLVURXWHLVEHFDXVH%DWXEDUDGLVWULFWWKDWLVORFDWHGEHWZHHQ/LPD 3XOXK DQG 7HELQJ 7LQJJL KDV WKH IRXUWK KLJKHVW *5'3 LQ WKH 1RUWK 6XPDWHUD SURYLQFH IRU DERXW 5S
:KLOH5D\D±3HPDWDQJ6LDQWDUZDVVHOHFWHGE\FRQVLGHULQJ6LPDOXQJXQGLVWULFWZKLFKUDQNVDV WKHIRXUWKKLJKHVWSRSXODWLRQIRUDERXWLQKDELWDQWV
'LVWULFWVLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFHWKDWDUHH[FOXGHGIRUWKH7UDQV6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDGDUH.LVDUDQ7DQMXQJ
%DODL.DEDQMDKH%DOLJHDQG6LEROJD.LVDUDQDVWKH$VDKDQGLVWULFWFDSLWDORQO\KDVDSRSXODWLRQRIDERXW LQKDELWDQWVDQG*5'53DURXQG5S7DQMXQJEDODLKDV*5'3DURXQG5SZLWK SRSXODWLRQRIDERXWLQKDELWDQWVUDQNHGWKDQGWKUHVSHFWLYHO\.DEDQMDKHDVWKH.DURGLVWULFWFDSLWDOKDV
LQKDELWDQWVUDQNHGWKZLWK*5'3DURXQG5SSODFHGWK0HDQZKLOH%DOLJHDVWKH 7RED6DPRVLUGLVWULFWFDSLWDOKDV*5'3DURXQG5SZLWKLQKDELWDQWVUDQNHGWKDQGWK UHVSHFWLYHO\/DVWO\6LEROJDKDVRQO\LQKDELWDQWVZLWK*5'3DERXW5S
)LJ5RXWHVNHWFKRI1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFH
7KH/4YDOXHVKRZVHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUDDUHVWLOOFRQFHQWUDWHGLQWKHFLW\RI0HGDQ,WKROGV RXWRIVHFWRUVUDQJLQJIURP(OHFWULFLW\*DVDQG:DWHU%XLOGLQJV7UDGH+RWHODQG5HVWDXUDQW7UDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG
&RPPXQLFDWLRQ)LQDQFH5HDO(VWDWHDQG%XVLQHVVDQG6HUYLFHV7KHUHVXOWVKRZVDJUHDWJDSEHWZHHQWKHFLW\RI 0HGDQ DQG RWKHU QHLJKERULQJ GLVWULFWV ZKLFK RQO\ KDYH WZR WR WKUHH SRWHQWLDO VHFWRUV ,W LV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH JRYHUQPHQWSURYLGHVPRUHFRQFHUQLQFUHDWLQJPRUHHFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVE\LQFUHDVLQJSXEOLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQSRWHQWLDO DUHDV7KHILQGLQJVDUHDOVRVXSSRUWHGE\WKHGLUHFWRURIRSHUDWLRQDODQGPDLQWHQDQFHLQ7ROO5RDG3URMHFWWKDWRWKHU HFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVZLOOSOD\VLJQLILFDQWUROHLQWKHSURMHFW¶VORQJWHUPVXVWDLQDELOLW\ZKLOHWKHILQDQFLDOPDQDJHURI 62( LQ 7ROO URDG SURMHFW DUJXHVWKDW VWUDWHJLF GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKLV FRQFHSW PD\ LQFOXGH WKH FRQQHFWLYLW\ RI.XDOD 7DQMXQJ3RUWLQ%DWXEDUD'LVWULFWDQG6HL0DQJNHL,QGXVWULDODUHDGHYHORSPHQWWRLPSURYHWKHSURMHFW¶VIHDVLELOLW\ )LJVKRZVWKHFRPSDULVRQRIH[LVWLQJURXWHZLWKWKHDOWHUQDWLYHURXWHSURGXFHGIURPWKLVUHVHDUFKIRU1RUWKHUQSDUW RI6XPDWHUD
([LVWLQJ5RXWH
3URSRVHG5RXWH
/HJHQG
Trang 8)LJ&RPSDULVRQRIH[LVWLQJDQGDOWHUQDWLYHURXWH
&RQFOXVLRQ
5RXWH VHOHFWLRQ SOD\V D VLJQLILFDQW UROH LQ JHQHUDWLQJ GHPDQG DQG FUHDWLQJ FRQQHFWLYLW\ EHWZHHQ UDZ PDWHULDO VRXUFHVWRSURFHVVLQJFHQWHUV7KLVUHVHDUFKKDVSURGXFHGDOWHUQDWLYHVURXWHVIRUWKHQRUWKHUQSDUWRI7UDQV±6XPDWHUD 7ROO5RDGE\FRQVLGHULQJ3URGXFW'RPHVWLF%UXWH5HJLRQDO3'5%DQGSRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\,WFRPSULVHVRI%DQGD
$FHK 6LJOL %LUHXHQ /KRNVHXPDZH /KRNVXNRQ ,GLUD\HXN 6WDEDW 0HGDQ /XEXNSDNDP /LPDSXOXK DQG 5D\D
&RPSDUHG WR WKH H[LVWLQJ URXWH WKDW LV SXEOLVKHG LQ SXEOLF UHFRUGV IRU DERXW NP WKLV DOWHUQDWLYH URXWH KDV VXFFHVVIXOO\SURGXFHVDPRUHHIILFLHQWURXWHRINP
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
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
7KLV UHVHDUFK KDV EHHQ VXSSRUWHG E\ UHVHDUFK JUDQWV IURP WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI 5HVHDUFK 7HFKQRORJ\ DQG +LJKHU (GXFDWLRQDQG8QLYHUVLWDV,QGRQHVLD
5HIHUHQFHV
>@ $VLDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN&ULWLFDO'HYHORSPHQW&RQVWUDLQWV&RXQWU\'LDJQRVWLFV6WXGLHV,QGRQHVLD3KLOLSSLQHV
>@ 0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF:RUNV7UDQV±6XPDWHUD7ROO5RDG5HSRUW3ODQ-DNDUWD
>@ %HO*HUPj,QIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGQDWLRQEXLOGLQJ7KHUHJXODWLRQDQGILQDQFLQJRIQHWZRUNWUDQVSRUWDWLRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVLQ6SDLQ±
%XVLQHVV+LVWRU\
>@ 0HLMHUV (YHUW -RULV +RHNVWUD 0DUWLMQ /HLMWHQ (ULN /RXZ DQG 0DUMROHLQ 6SDDQV &RQQHFWLQJ WKH SHULSKHU\ GLVWULEXWLYH HIIHFWV RI QHZ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH-RXUQDORI7UDQVSRUW*HRJUDSK\
>@ 2WVXND$NLKLUR0LND*RWRDQG7RVKL\XNL6XH\RVKL,QGXVWULDODJJORPHUDWLRQHIIHFWVLQ-DSDQ3URGXFWLYHHIILFLHQF\PDUNHWDFFHVVDQG SXEOLFILVFDOWUDQVIHU3DSHUVLQ5HJLRQDO6FLHQFH
>@ %HUDZL 0RKDPPHG $OL %DPEDQJ 6XVDQWRQR 3HUGDQD 0LUDM $EGXU 5RKLP %R\ %HUDZL +HUDZDWL =HWKD 5DKPDQ DQG $OEHUW +XVLQ (QKDQFLQJ9DOXHIRU0RQH\RI0HJD,QIUDVWUXFWXUH3URMHFWV'HYHORSPHQW8VLQJ9DOXH(QJLQHHULQJ0HWKRG3URFHGLD7HFKQRORJ\
([LVWLQJ5RXWH
3URSRVHG5RXWH
/HJHQG
Trang 9>@ /HGXF6\OYDLQDQG'DQLHO:LOVRQ5RDGVWRSURVSHULW\RUEULGJHVWRQRZKHUH"WKHRU\DQGHYLGHQFHRQWKHLPSDFWRISXEOLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQYHVWPHQW1RZ1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI(FRQRPLF5HVHDUFK
>@ %HUDZL0RKDPPHG$OL$EGXU5RKLP%R\%HUDZL,VWL6XUMDQGDUL3UDMLWQR1DKU\1DKU\3HUGDQD0LUDM<XVXI$EGXUDFKPDQ(UZLQ7RELQJ DQG$QWRQLXV,YDQ'HYHORSLQJ&RQFHSWXDO'HVLJQRI+LJK6SHHG5DLOZD\VXVLQJ9DOXH(QJLQHHULQJ0HWKRG&UHDWLQJ2SWLPXP3URMHFW
%HQHILWV,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI7HFKQRORJ\>2QOLQH@
>@ %LOOLQJV6WHSKHQ%DQG(ULN%-RKQVRQ7KHORFDWLRQTXRWLHQWDVDQHVWLPDWRURILQGXVWULDOFRQFHQWUDWLRQ 5HJLRQDO6FLHQFHDQG8UEDQ (FRQRPLFV
>@0RUULVVH\.DU\Q3URGXFLQJUHJLRQDOSURGXFWLRQPXOWLSOLHUVIRU,ULVKPDULQHVHFWRUSROLF\$ORFDWLRQTXRWLHQWDSSURDFK2FHDQ &RDVWDO 0DQDJHPHQW
>@7UDSSH\$P\-&&KDUOHV97UDSSH\3HQQ\+</LX&KLK7XQJ+VLDR-HUU\-52XDQG.HYLQ:3&KHQ/RFDWLRQTXRWLHQW(,2/&$ PHWKRG IRU FDUERQ HPLVVLRQ DQDO\VLV &RQFXUUHQW (QJLQHHULQJ $SSURDFKHV IRU 6XVWDLQDEOH 3URGXFW 'HYHORSPHQW LQ D 0XOWL'LVFLSOLQDU\ (QYLURQPHQW6SULQJHU/RQGRQ
>@/HVOLH7LPRWK\)&DUD/)UDQNHQIHOGDQG0DWWKHZ$0DNDUD7KHVSDWLDOIRRGHQYLURQPHQWRIWKH'&PHWURSROLWDQDUHD&OXVWHULQJFR ORFDWLRQDQGFDWHJRULFDOGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ$SSOLHG*HRJUDSK\
>@:DQJ<XIDQJDQG;XH-LDQJ0HDVXULQJRQWKH)RUHVWU\,QGXVWULDO&OXVWHU%DVHGRQ/RFDWLRQ4XRWLHQW0HWKRGLQ+HLORQJMLDQJ3URYLQFH ,VVXHVRI)RUHVWU\(FRQRPLFV
>@+H<LQJDQG3LQJ<LQ5HVHDUFKRQWKH&KDUDFWHURI7RXULVP'HVWLQDWLRQ1HWZRUNRI&DSLWDO5HJLRQRI&KLQD/,666SULQJHU%HUOLQ +HLGHOEHUJ
>@6WDWLVWLFRI,QGRQHVLD$FHKLQ1XPEHU%DQGD$FHK
>@6WDWLVWLFRI,QGRQHVLD1RUWK6XPDWHUDLQ1XPEHU1RUWK6XPDWHUD
... address:PDEHUDZL#HQJXLDFLG© 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/... http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of SCESCM 2016.
Trang... 5HVWDXUDQW7KHRWKHUIRXUFLWLHVGLVWULFWVKDYHWZRXSWRIRXUSRWHQWLDOHFRQRPLFVHFWRUV3.2 North Sumatera Province
0HDQZKLOHIURPFLWLHVGLVWULFWVLQ1RUWK6XPDWHUDSURYLQFHIRXURIWKHPZHUHVHOHFWHGDVWKHKLJKHVWLQWHUPV