Algorithm for Risk Assessment in the Introduction of Intelligent Transport Systems Facilities

Algorithm for Risk Assessment in the Introduction of Intelligent Transport Systems Facilities Transportation Research Procedia 20 ( 2017 ) 373 – 377 2352 1465 © 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier[.]

Transportation Research Procedia 20 ( 2017 ) 373 – 377

2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).

Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference “Organization and Traffic Safety

Management in large cities”

doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.01.056

ScienceDirect

12th International Conference "Organization and Traffic Safety Management in large cities",

SPbOTSIC-2016, 28-30 September 2016, St Petersburg, Russia Algorithm for Risk Assessment in the Introduction of Intelligent

Transport Systems Facilities

Don State Technical University, 1 Gagarina square, Rostov-on-Don, 344000, Russia

Abstract

Introduction of intelligent transport systems (ITS) facilities is a complex and time consuming process It requires developing various ITS architectures, a clear definition of tasks (needs of the user) and compilation of databases In order to avoid negative results of introduction of ITS projects, a new approach in designing ITS, taking into account all possible risks of each stage of designing and introducing ITS facilities, becomes a priority The paper proposes an algorithm for risk assessment during

introduction of ITS projects A risk management system is required for identification, grouping and analysis of major risks of ITS, as well as for developing the ways to mitigate possible risks

© 2016 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V

Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference "Organization and Traffic Safety Management in large cities"

Keywords: intelligent transport systems; traffic flows; safety; efficiency of operation of a transportation network; ITS architecture; risk analysis;

risk management

1 Introduction

Efficiency and safety of operation of transportation networks of modern cities is performed with the help of extensive use of intelligent transport systems (ITS) Transport policy of all developed countries of the world has been based on developing and promoting intelligent transport systems, as well as creating a common information space, for over 35 years

* Corresponding author Tel.: +0-000-000-0000 ; fax: +0-000-000-0000

E-mail address: olga-krivolapova@yandex.ru*

© 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license

( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ).

Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the 12th International Conference “Organization and Traffic Safety

Management in large cities”

The principle of primacy of developing ITS architecture implies a systematic approach, which allows avoiding possible difficulties in development of intelligent transport systems The design of the system ensures consistency of operation of traffic management subsystems of any level The ITS architecture comprises all tools to solve the issues

of traffic flow management

The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for determining the risks associated with introduction of ITS facilities The subject of the study is the risk affecting efficiency of introducing intelligent transport systems facilities

2 Main text

The high level of motorization of modern cities has led to complications in functioning of the automotive transportation system, i.e reduction of speed of vehicles and constant traffic jams Failure to meet demands and quality

of road transportation impacts on various economy sectors of regions and the country as a whole Introduction of intelligent transport systems (ITS) becomes one of the most challenging ways to solve transportation problems [Darido

et al (2003), Zhankaziev (2016), Nazer and Jaffe (2006)]

As a rule, introduction of certain ITS facilities can greatly enhance efficiency of road transportation In order to avoid risks and negative results in introducing ITS projects, a new approach on redistribution of traffic flows and forecasting of subsequent changes in operation of road networks becomes a priority [Kerner (2009), Naumova and Zyryanov (2015)]

Risk management, including development of risk prevention plans and risk mitigation programs, is one of the most important stages in introducing intelligent transport systems facilities The risk management system is required for identification, grouping and analysis of major risks of ITS, as well as for developing the ways to mitigate possible risks (Table 1)

Table 1 Assessing performance of intelligent transport systems introduction

Project targets are achieved

Project targets are achieved partially

Project targets are not achieved

Therefore, it is reasonable to include the following steps of designed risk assessment algorithm into the ITS architecture:

The first step: planning introduction of an ITS facility This step includes actions aimed at risk elimination and

minimization of its consequences: threat assessment, risk analysis and risk treatment Often, errors made at this stage lead to irreversible negative consequences For example, estimates of growth in demand for the route Greenway Dallas (USA) was assumed at 14% in the first six years according to specialists’ estimates during development of the route project [Damnjanovic (2009)] But, the initial assessment of 34,000 vehicles per day proved to be too optimistic, since the actual daily average intensity totaled 11,500 vehicles, which led to considerable financial losses of the project

The second step: selection of risks It is impossible to manage risks as long as they are not clearly defined This

step involves identification of risks in order to determine real threats These risks may include failure of data transfer, increase in the cost of services, violation of traffic safety level, social instability of the society, lagging development

of the region, adverse impact on the environment [Zhankaziev and Vlasov (2010)]

The third step: risk analysis Once all possible risks of the project are identified, detailed analysis aimed at

identification of most probable and dangerous risks is required for further work with them

The fourth step: dealing with risks The step includes identification of measures necessary to deal with problems

identified during the risk assessment One of the methods of risk preventing may be online control, which would

require equipment of highways with means of monitoring and a team of highly skilled operators The purpose of online management is increase of efficiency and quality of the ITS

The fifth step: selecting a mitigation strategy The step implies classification of risks included into the database,

in accordance with conditions leading to these risks Developing a strategy of accident management should contribute

to decrease of time spent to help victims For this reason, online control tools based on comprehensive monitoring of the network must be developed, which would reduce the need in additional tools and human intervention These tools should also include different scenarios of accidents, taking into account locations and response measures

The sixth step: designing scenarios for mitigation of risk consequences There are 4 crucial aspects for designing

mitigation scenarios:

x time frames;

x cooperation of public and private sectors;

x main trends in development of ITS;

x aspects of the territory

One of the methods of scenario grouping is division of risks on that depending on the time period and independent

of it After initial classification, it should be identified if the ITS (or only some specific service of the ITS) is fully supported by the authorities, or if the private sector only is involved in development and operation of the ITS

Several data sources would increase efficiency of the system But multiple data sources should not impede operation of the system; they should be used as a way of expanding information and attraction of new users Introduction of personal data would allow highway control centers obtaining new information for traffic configuration

In their turn, traffic participants can access information on traffic conditions on the highways Expansion of the network of data exchange is possible following settlement of administration issues related to cooperation, distribution

of responsibilities between various operators that usually operate independently Also, introduction of a great number

of data sources would increase competitiveness of the ITS [Zyryanov (2009), Zyryanov and Krivolapova (2012), Zyryanov et al (2011)]

The algorithm of risk analysis during introduction of intelligent transport systems is shown in Figure 1

Step 1 Planning introduction

of an ITS facility

- assessment of threats;

- analysis of the risks;

- treatinging the risks

- developing options of risk elimination

- developing a program of risk mitigation

Analysis of economic variables:

- changing of market prices

- fix-prices at the market

- loss of the value of the service

- fixed assets

- operational assets

- financial assets

Step 2 Identification of risks

- failures in data transfer

- increase in the cost of services

- breach of traffic safety level

- social instability

- underdevelopment of the region

- environmental impacts

Step 3 Analysis of risks

Functional analysis of risks

Analysis of performance:

- service availability;

- time of travel;

- service accuracy;

- fixed time of travel;

- fixed modes of travel;

- reliability;

- control

Analysis of impact on:

- the society;

- economics

Identification of the most important probable risks during introduction

of the ITS

Step 4 Treatment of risks

Measures for elimination

of identified risks

Developing online control

Making of the decision

on implementation

of the ITS facility

Step 5 Selectiing actions on mitigation of risks

Classification of risks

Reducing time spent for assistance

in the case of a risk event

Step 6 Developing scenarios

of risk mitigation

- determining time frames

- cooperation of public and private sectors

- main trends in development of ITS

- peculiarities of the territory

Effective introduction of ITS facilities, possible due to accurately developed algorithm of risk assessment during introduction of the ITS, improves the quality of transportation servicing of population, provides road and traffic safety, extends capabilities of the automated traffic management system (ATMS) and the transportation system to meet the growing demand for passenger and freight transportation, improves the quality of public functions in the field of transportation of the region

3 Conclusion

The most effective way to solve the problems of the transportation system (such as reduction of the travel speed

of vehicles, regular traffic jams and numerous traffic accidents) is introduction of intelligent transport systems Effective introduction of ITS facilities is impossible without careful analysis of all possible risks which should be identified at initial steps of developing the architecture of intelligent transport systems The developed methodology

of risk analysis allows challenging this issue with maximum efficiency

References

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