WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN ST LOUIS Brown School of Social Work Dissertation Examination Committee: Patricia Kohl, Chair Patrick Fowler Peter Hovmand Melissa Jonson-Reid Douglas Luke Casew
Causal Loop Diagram
This section outlines the feedback structure derived from stakeholder interviews and GMB workshops, which informed the causal loop diagram for the dynamic hypothesis The structure highlights a key dynamic process where supervisors, facing ongoing shortages of case managers, have two main options: increasing hiring rates or slowing turnover Both strategies create balancing feedback loops within the system Stakeholder insights indicate that the most effective retention strategies include providing increased case support for supervisors—especially for new and inexperienced case managers—and enhancing supervisor emotional support Implementing these support measures not only improves retention but also leads to positive side effects that strengthen overall workforce stability.
Enhancing emotional support among case managers fosters greater camaraderie and reduces frustration, ultimately lowering staff turnover rates Providing increased case support not only builds valuable experience but also boosts case manager self-efficacy while decreasing frustration Additionally, increased case support accelerates permanency rates, leading to improved self-efficacy and reduced frustration among case managers, thus promoting a more stable and effective child welfare system.
Focusing on employee retention rather than hiring is a more effective strategy, as lower turnover rates allow supervisors to spend less time on hiring and onboarding, and more on implementing evidence-based practices and professional development This shift results in reduced costs associated with recruiting and training new staff However, in crisis situations, stakeholders may prioritize quick hiring results, which limits the focus on retention and leads to an inexperienced workforce with low self-efficacy When hiring becomes the primary focus, units struggle to build camaraderie, and high turnover persists, prolonging permanency and damaging staff morale Eventually, this cycle traps the agency or unit in a turnover trap, undermining long-term stability and effectiveness.
The turnover trap theory presented here is similar in structure to Repenning’s and
Sterman’s (2001; 2002) capability trap theory of process improvement explains how organizational capability diminishes when efforts focus on working harder instead of working smarter through process improvements As capability erodes, organizations become increasingly caught in a "work harder" loop, leading to a cycle where they are "addicted" to constant effort rather than strategic process enhancements Similarly, the turnover trap describes a dynamic where the focus on hiring efforts intensifies, causing organizations to become "addicted" to recruitment at the expense of effective employee retention, ultimately undermining long-term stability Incorporating these insights can help organizations break free from counterproductive cycles and foster sustainable growth.
Feedback Loops
This section describes the feedback loops that make up the full CLD, which is presented in Figure 12.
Balancing Loops: Focus on Hiring or Focus on Retention to Reduce the Gap
Case managers are represented as a stock in the CLD, with their numbers changing only through inflows and outflows For decades, Child Welfare (CW) administrators and supervisors have faced a persistent gap between the required number of case managers to meet federal standards and the actual staffing levels To address this, supervisors can either accelerate hiring or reduce turnover, both actions forming balancing loops Hiring new case managers quickly narrows the staffing gap, while improving retention results in a delayed impact, making immediate hiring the more effective short-term solution.
Focusing on retention is essential for narrowing the gap between needed and actual case managers by reducing turnover rates Stakeholders in interviews and GMB workshops highlighted that key factors influencing their decision to stay include supervisor case support, emotional support from supervisors, and camaraderie with colleagues, which collectively enhance employee satisfaction and stability.
Promoting bonding among staff is a key responsibility of supervisors, who play a vital role in fostering camaraderie and providing emotional support to their team Increased supervisor emotional support leads to stronger coworker bonds, which in turn enhance camaraderie and reduce frustration within the team As frustration decreases, staff turnover slows, helping to close the gap between the current number of case managers and the organization's staffing needs This highlights the importance of supervisory support in improving team cohesion and retention in case management.
Effective supervisor emotional support plays a crucial role in relieving frustration among case managers by providing personalized emotional assistance As supervisor support increases, frustration levels decrease, leading to a reduction in turnover rates and helping to close the gap between the current and needed number of case managers This process not only promotes stronger bonds between supervisors and employees but also enhances overall team stability and performance.
Providing adequate supervisor case support is a key retention strategy that narrows the gap between actual and needed case managers by boosting their experience As case support increases, case managers’ self-efficacy improves, reducing frustration and decreasing turnover rates Stakeholders emphasize that new case managers require the most support initially, and this need diminishes over time Early support not only enhances case manager competence but also frees up supervisor time for activities like personal development and implementing evidence-based practices, further strengthening workforce stability.
Reinforcing Loops: Virtuous or Vicious Cycles
Fostering camaraderie among coworkers creates a reinforcing cycle that can be either virtuous or vicious When turnover decreases, team members have more opportunities to bond, which boosts camaraderie, reduces frustration, and further strengthens relationships, forming a positive feedback loop Conversely, high turnover disrupts team cohesion, leading to decreased camaraderie and increased frustration, which can accelerate staff departures, creating a negative vicious cycle Building strong workplace camaraderie is essential for maintaining low turnover rates and promoting a healthy, collaborative environment.
Providing adequate case support early in a case manager’s career reduces the likelihood of crises, as inexperienced managers without proper guidance often cause negative situations requiring immediate attention Operating in a constant crisis mode consumes significant supervisor time, but increasing support and experience leads to fewer crises, allowing supervisors to focus on retention efforts This approach helps slow turnover rates and bridges the gap between the current and needed number of caseworkers, ensuring a more stable and effective caseload management system.
The reinvestment loop highlights how increased pressure to focus on hiring reduces time spent on retention, leading to a cycle of decreasing supervisor support, camaraderie, and experience, ultimately increasing turnover; conversely, prioritizing retention fosters a virtuous cycle that enhances support, camaraderie, and self-efficacy, thereby reducing turnover and promoting organizational stability.
In the Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), two key exogenous variables are identified: needed case managers and bureaucracy Needed case managers are influenced by the number of cases and the standard caseload; in this study, since caseloads remained constant, this variable is treated as a fixed parameter Bureaucracy encompasses reporting requirements, redundant documentation, and the computer systems used for case documentation—elements determined by the state public child welfare agency and thus considered exogenous to the current system Additionally, bureaucratic challenges such as navigating rules, processes, and actors within the family court system significantly impact the system's functioning and are outside the direct control of the consortium These exogenous variables play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics and outcomes within the child welfare context.
Figure 5.1 Dynamic Hypothesis: Causal Loop Diagram Hypothesized to
Cause the Behavior in the Reference Mode
Pressure to Spend Time Hiring
Time Spent Dealing with Crises
Summary of Qualitative Results
High turnover in foster care casework is widely recognized by stakeholders as a critical issue due to its significant negative impact on the system It leads to increased costs associated with recruiting and training new case managers, creating substantial financial burdens Additionally, staff turnover adversely affects the morale of individual caseworkers and disrupts team cohesion within units Stakeholders consistently identify foster care caseworker turnover as a core problem that hampers overall system stability and effectiveness.
This dissertation is guided by McBeath et al.'s (2014) framework on the organizational and institutional factors influencing child welfare work Stakeholder interviews highlighted key concepts from this framework, including management expertise and leadership, particularly the supervisors' capacity to offer emotional support and foster camaraderie Additionally, stakeholders emphasized the impact of technical uncertainty, noting that inexperienced case managers lacking technical skills often led to crises and delays in achieving permanency outcomes.
Human capital, consisting of both tacit and formal knowledge gained through education, training, and on-the-job experience, is a vital organizational resource that accumulates over time and enhances performance (Kacmar et al., 2006; Strober, 1990; Williams & Glisson, 2013; Shaw et al., 2013) In strategic management, human capital theory emphasizes the importance of investing in employee development to ensure organizational success Interviews and Green Mountain Benchmarking workshops revealed that when new case managers lack sufficient education and training, their effectiveness diminishes, leading to repeated errors and increased supervision demands Conversely, case managers who received adequate support from supervisors were more likely to stay with the organization, highlighting the critical role of human capital in staff retention and organizational performance.
Organizational social capital refers to the valuable assets embedded within an organization’s social relationships, which enhance work processes through effective communication, trust, and knowledge sharing (Leana & Van Buren, 1999) It also supports transactive memory, allowing groups to share and access collective knowledge more efficiently, thereby reducing cognitive load (Wegner, 1987) Stakeholders highlighted that camaraderie, a key component of social capital, thrives in stable workforces with low turnover, fostering stronger relationships Conversely, even the departure of a close colleague can significantly diminish camaraderie, underscoring the importance of social cohesion in organizational success.
The Resource-Based View of the firm emphasizes that organizational performance depends on effective resource management, including human capital, social capital, and camaraderie Case managers serve as vital tangible resources within this framework Although this dissertation's models do not directly measure performance, qualitative data from interviews and GMB workshops reveal instances of poor resource management Notably, one unit within the consortium excelled in resource management under its supervisor, resulting in significantly lower turnover rates and better leverage of human and social capital.
The Simulation Model
Test of the Dynamic Hypothesis and Confidence Building Tests
This chapter reviews existing research on caseworker turnover and retention within foster care and the broader child welfare system It highlights how turnover and retention have been historically defined and measured, explores the consequences and predictors of staff turnover, and discusses interventions aimed at reducing turnover rates Additionally, the chapter identifies gaps in the current literature and explains how this dissertation will address these important research gaps.
Foster care caseworkers play a critical role in shaping the lives of young people in care, spending more time with them than any other professional and influencing their access to services and future placements Their work involves making urgent, often life-altering decisions amidst complex circumstances such as poverty, substance abuse, and domestic violence They are responsible for coordinating communication between biological families, foster families, legal professionals, and healthcare providers, while also assessing needs, making referrals, monitoring progress, and ensuring legal compliance through detailed documentation Despite the demanding nature of this emotionally intensive and multifaceted role, foster care caseworkers often face low compensation for their essential work.
Turnover occurs when a caseworker leaves a child welfare agency, but not all turnover is problematic; agencies may benefit when burned-out or poorly fitting workers decide to leave, and some cases of turnover result from retirement, death, or other unavoidable circumstances This study focuses on problematic turnover, which happens when well-performing, well-suited caseworkers leave voluntarily, negatively impacting agencies Studying turnover is challenging due to difficulties in contacting former employees, and most child welfare research uses intentions to leave as a proxy for turnover rather than tracking actual departures.
McGowan, Auerback, & Strolin-Goltzman, Lawrence, Auerbach, et al, 2009; Strolin-Goltzman, Auerbach, McGowan, & McCarthy, 2009)
Retention reflects an organization’s ability to retain its employees and is often viewed as the opposite of turnover However, it goes beyond merely being the counterpoint to turnover by focusing on the prevention of employee departure Essentially, retention measures how effectively an organization keeps its staff, which can be quantified by tracking the number of employees who stay within the company over a specified period.
(Dickinson, & Perry, 2002; Kleinpeter, Pasztor, & Telles-Rogers, 2003) In many cases, researchers use intention to stay as a proxy for retention (Chenot, Benon, & Kim, 2009; Ellett, 2009; Ellett, 2007)
High turnover rates among child welfare caseworkers are linked to serious negative outcomes for children in the system, as frequent staff changes lead to a loss of experienced workers and reduced service quality When experienced caseworkers leave, they are often replaced by less knowledgeable new staff, which diminishes the agency’s human capital and impacts the effectiveness of child protection services Studies show that California child welfare agencies with higher turnover rates also experience higher rates of recurrent child maltreatment, highlighting the critical need to address workforce stability to improve child safety and well-being.
Children in foster care are among the most affected by caseworker turnover, which can lead to longer reunification periods and delayed permanency (ACF, n.d.; Annie E Casey Foundation, 2003; Hess et al., 1992) Foster care caseworkers bear the critical responsibility of ensuring children's safety, well-being, and permanent placement, whether through reunification or alternative nurturing environments Studies show that children with multiple caseworkers are 60% less likely to achieve permanency within mandated timeframes, as set by the Adoption and Safe Families Act, compared to those with consistent caseworkers (Flower, McDonald, & Sumski, 2005) High caseworker turnover can therefore hinder timely permanency and affect children's long-term stability.
The studies discussed in the previous paragraphs used correlational analyses and their results are therefore limited with regard to identifying or ruling out spurious associations
Recent qualitative studies highlight the critical impact of caseworker turnover on children in foster care, emphasizing how disruptions in personal relationships with caseworkers can negatively affect their well-being Strong, supportive relationships with non-parental adults, including caseworkers, are linked to improved outcomes for children experiencing maltreatment Maintaining stability in these relationships is essential for promoting positive development and emotional security in foster children.
Most children in foster care have already experienced multiple significant losses before entering the system, making the formation of trusting relationships with caseworkers essential (Curry, 2012; Curry, 2019; Augsberger & Swenson, 2015) Studies by Curry (2019) and Strolin-Goltzman, Kollar, & Trinkle (2010) reveal that children in foster care often feel a lack of stability, experience loss of trust, and face re-traumatization when caseworkers leave, highlighting the emotional impact of placement changes.
High turnover in foster care caseworkers often leads to children and youth "shutting down," especially after a trusted caseworker leaves, resulting in feelings of disengagement and distrust toward new caregivers This disruption hampers the development of supportive relationships, leaving children unmotivated or too wary to connect with their new caseworkers Additionally, staff turnover misses critical opportunities for caseworkers to serve as mentors and sources of support for children in foster care, affecting their emotional well-being and stability Addressing these challenges is essential for improving foster care outcomes and fostering lasting, trusting relationships.
Turnover in CW represents a huge cost to the American taxpayer, the largest funder of
Child and family social workers play a crucial role in the United States, with recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating that as of May 2017, over 117,550 caseworkers were employed in state and local governments (excluding schools), alongside an additional 76,480 in children and family services The child welfare system faces significant workforce challenges, as a 25% annual turnover rate leads to approximately 29,387 caseworkers leaving their positions each year Replacing these caseworkers is costly, with estimates ranging from $15,000 per employee, emphasizing the need for strategies to improve staff retention in child welfare services.
The cost to replace departing child welfare caseworkers is estimated at over $6 billion annually, based on an average replacement cost of $34,500 per worker multiplied by the number of annual staff turnovers This significant expenditure highlights the financial impact of high turnover rates, funds that could otherwise be invested in enhancing programs and services for vulnerable children within the child welfare system.
Turnover among child welfare caseworkers is a widely studied phenomenon in social work research, with over 150 peer-reviewed articles identified in a 2008 systematic review by Depanfilis and Zlotnik Most studies on this topic rely on correlational designs to explore factors influencing turnover, which can be categorized into individual characteristics—such as personal traits and motivations—and job characteristics, including workload and organizational support Understanding these factors is essential for developing strategies to reduce turnover rates and improve staff retention in child welfare agencies.
Self-efficacy and education are two critical individual characteristics linked to employee turnover Unlike demographic factors like age and gender, these variables are changeable areas where organizations can implement strategies to reduce turnover and enhance workforce practices Self-efficacy, derived from social cognitive theory, refers to an individual's belief in their ability to develop effective strategies and succeed in specific tasks or behaviors, making it a vital factor in employee retention.
Beliefs of self-efficacy significantly influence motivation, affecting individuals' decisions about task pursuit, goal difficulty, effort, and persistence (Pinder, 1998) Low self-efficacy leads to giving up easily, whereas boosting self-efficacy in organizations through competent role models, supportive supervisors, and stress reduction can improve employee resilience (Bandura, 1994) The strong, consistent evidence linking self-efficacy to turnover in child welfare (CW) agencies is grounded in social cognitive theory, which explains why lower self-efficacy is associated with intentions to leave, while higher self-efficacy predicts the desire to stay employed (Dickinson & Painter, 2009; Ellett, 2000, 2007; Strolin-Goltzman, 2007).
Results from studies on education level and whether or not a worker holds a social work degree have been less consistent For example, Faller, Grabarek, & Ortega (2010) and Nissly
(2005) found that having a graduate degree was positively associated with turnover while
Research by Rosenthol & Waters (2006) indicates that employees with less than a bachelor's degree are more likely to experience turnover Studies also show that holding a social work degree can increase turnover rates, with Madden, Scannepieco, & Painter (2014) finding a positive correlation overall, while Strolin-Goltzman et al (2008) observed this trend primarily among urban caseworkers Additionally, MSW caseworkers often feel that their skills are under-utilized in their roles, contributing to higher turnover intentions (Auerbach).
& McGowan, 2000) Finally, Rosenthal, McDowell, & White (1998) found no relationship between education and turnover