USE - Class of 2012 Completion within 4 years

This report examines the on-time completion rates of Vermont high school graduates who began their postsecondary education full-time at a four-year school.. Degree attainment rate and co

In 2014, VSAC issued a report on the aspirations of the Vermont High School Class of

2012 The following year, 2015, VSAC issued a report on the postsecondary enrollment

of the Class of 2012 This third report looks at the Class of 2012 four years after highschool graduation and describes the percentage of graduates who enrolled in postsec-ondary education, along with the percentage who attained a degree within four years.This report also discusses some of the factors associated with the timely completion of

a degree The study provides some encouraging data about the four-year graduationrates of matriculated members of the class as a whole However, the data also revealswide variation in the success rates between students from different socioeconomicgroups and between students attending different institutions of higher education

This report examines the on-time completion rates of Vermont high school graduates who began their postsecondary education full-time at a four-year school Vermont

high school students enroll immediately in four-year institutions at a higher rate than thenational or regional average Sixty percent of Vermont high school graduates who enrolledimmediately at a four-year institution graduated within four years, 13 percentage pointshigher than the national average However, this success was not shared by every group

in the high school Class of 2012—there was wide variation in on-time degree attainmentbetween men and women, and between first-generation and second-generation status1,

by academic preparation, by geography, and by the institution the students attended

Among those students who started full-time at a four-year school within six months of high school graduation, we found:

• 56.4 percent of the students obtained a bachelor’s degree within four years, and

an additional 3.4 percent obtained an associate degree

• The completion rate of students who started at private institutions was 67 percent.The completion rate of students who started at public institutions was 53 percent

• Eight out of 10 students who remained at their schools for four consecutive yearswhile being enrolled full-time attained a postsecondary degree within four years

_

1 In this paper, students who reported that neither of their parents had attained a four-year degree are referred to as first-generation students Students who reported that at least one of their parents had attained at least a four-year degree are referred to as second-generation students

Follow-up: The Vermont High School Class of 2012

Postsecondary Enrollment & Completion within Four Years of Graduation

• Only 53 percent of students who started full-time at a four-year school remained enrolled full-timefor four consecutive years at the school at which they started.

• Students who transferred schools (even though they were enrolled continuously) were almost 30percentage points less likely to graduate within four years than those who remained at their startingschools

• Students who enrolled less than full-time (even though they were enrolled continuously) were 30percentage points less likely to graduate within four years than those students who were enrolledcontinuously on a full-time basis

• Students who left school for at least a semester were 70 percentage points less likely to graduatewithin four years than students who were enrolled continuously

• Seventy percent of second-generation females completed their degrees within four years

• Only 46 percent of first-generation males completed their degrees within four years

• While Vermont had a higher completion rate than the national average, it also had a higher percentage

of students who dropped out or stopped out of postsecondary education without a degree At theend of four years, 22 percent of the students who began their postsecondary education had leftschool without attaining a degree This was five percentage points higher than the national average

Figure 1 Completion rates within four years, Class of 2012

This report is based on enrollment data from the National Student Clearinghouse and responses to theVSAC 2012 Senior Survey, which was administered to Vermont high school seniors in the spring of theirsenior year Eighty-four percent of the Class of 2012 completed the survey and are represented in this report

A report on the outcomes of students who enrolled at two-year institutions will be released separately

Vermont’s public high school graduation rate has consistently been higher than the national average

Continuing this historic pattern, the public high school graduation rate for the Vermont High School

Class of 2012 was higher than the national average (88 percent versus 80 percent) In contrast, Vermont’s

college-going rates among high school graduates have been lower than the national average In 2012,

the college-going rate for Vermont was 60 percent, six percentage points lower than the national

college-going rate

Some of the highlights from our previous research, which focused on the aspiration and

immediate enrollment of the Class of 2012, include:

• Vermonters enrolled at four-year institutions at higher rates than the national and regional average.Fifty-three percent of the Vermont Class of 2012 enrolled at a four-year school, and 7 percent enrolled

at a two-year school In contrast, only 37 percent of the nation’s high school graduates enrolledimmediately in a four-year school, while 29 percent enrolled immediately at a two-year school

• Postsecondary enrollment varied significantly by county Rural counties tended to have lower going rates The percentage of students who continued their education ranged from 50 percent inOrange and Lamoille counties to 67 percent in Chittenden County

college-• Female students were more likely than males to continue their education, 67 percent compared with

53 percent

• Second-generation students were more likely than first-generation students to continue their education,

72 percent compared with 52 percent

• Second-generation females (77 percent) were nearly twice as likely to continue their education whencompared with first-generation males (42 percent)

• Sixty-seven percent of the graduates who completed Algebra II (or its equivalent) continued their educationimmediately after high school, compared with 24 percent of students who did not complete Algebra II

• Graduates whose parents started talking to them about their post-high school plans before theyentered high school were more likely to continue their education after high school (70 percent) than weregraduates whose parents waited until the 9th grade or later to start those conversations (57 percent)

Figure 2 Enrollment patterns of the Vermont High School Class of 2012

US:

enrolled 2-year school

Female Male Second-gen First-gen Second-gen

female First-gen male Algebra II Algebra II No Pre-high school

discussion

No pre-high discussion school

Our previous research examined the factors associated with the postsecondary aspiration, enrollment,and persistence among graduates in the Vermont High School Class of 2012 (VSAC 2014, 2015) Some ofthe factors we identified were student’s gender, parents’ educational attainment, parental involvement

in their children’s post-high school plans, and student’s academic preparation during high school Wefound that females were more likely to enroll in postsecondary education Students who had at least oneparent who had attained a bachelor’s degree or higher were also more likely to enroll in postsecondaryeducation, as were students whose parents were more involved with their children’s post-high school plans

Students were also more likely to pursue postsecondary education if they did well in high school, asmeasured by their overall GPA Similarly, students who completed a higher-level math class, such as Algebra II, were more likely to pursue postsecondary education and persist to a second year

This report is our third look at this class The purpose of this paper is to explore whether the Class of

2012 had successfully attained their degrees within four years of enrolling in postsecondary education

There are two ways to describe the postsecondary attainment of the Class of 2012 Both are importantmeasures of educational attainment and tell us important information about the Class of 2012 The twodifferent measurements are outlined below and in Figure 3

1) Completion rate of those who enrolled full-time at a four-year school

The first way to measure completion is to calculate the percentage of students who enrolled full-time

at a four-year postsecondary institution and earned a degree This is a subset of the entire graduatinghigh school class; it includes only those students who enrolled full-time at a four-year school in the fall

of 2012 This is the typical method used to measure completion The four-year completion rate forthe Class of 2012 is 60 percent

2) Degree attainment rate of the entire high school Class of 2012

A second way to measure educational attainment is to calculate the percentage of the entire highschool Class of 2012 who earned a degree This includes the entire class, not just those who startedfull-time at a four-year school This is an important metric, as it tells us how many high school graduatesattained a postsecondary degree within four years The four-year degree attainment rate for theClass of 2012 is 34 percent

This report is separated into two sections In Section A, we discuss the graduates of Vermont High SchoolClass of 2012 who started full-time at a four-year school in the fall of 2012 In Section B, we take a stepback and look at the entire Vermont High School Class of 2012, as well as the classes of 2008 and 2010,

to gain some perspective on enrollment and degree attainment rates over time

Figure 3 Degree attainment rate and completion rate of the Class of 2012

Class of 2012 graduates who enrolled full-time at

a 4-year school, fall 2012

All Class of 2012 graduates

Attained a 2- or 4-year degree Did not attain a 2- or 4-year degree

Degree Attainment Rate

Completion Rate

Measurement of completion of those students who enrolled full-time at a 4-year school

Measurement of completion of the entire graduating high school class

Section A: Immediate continuers who started full-time at a four-year school

The completion rate of Vermonters who started full-time at a four-year school was 60 percent2 (Figure 4), which exceeded the national average by 13 percentage points (NSC, 2018) Vermonters are attaining degrees within four years, on average, faster than their national counterparts

On-time graduation accrues benefits both to individual students and to the overall economy Students

who take six years to graduate borrow more to fund their additional years of school Studies at two

universities found that students who graduated in six years rather than four increased their student loan debt by nearly 70 percent (Complete College America, 2014) Students who complete on time are also

able to enter the workforce sooner, providing economic and social benefits to themselves and to their

communities

One of the factors associated with a higher on-time completion rate among Vermonters was the type of school at which they enrolled Vermont students enrolled full-time at four-year institutions at a substantially higher rate than their national counterparts As will be discussed further, full-time enrollment at four-year institutions is associated with higher completion rates In addition, Vermonters were more likely to enroll

at private colleges, which, according to national studies (NCS, 2017), generally have higher four-year

completion rates than public schools do (Figure 4) About half of the Vermont Class of 2012 graduates who enrolled at a four-year college enrolled at a private college In contrast, the national average was 33 percent.Vermonters (who were, again, more likely to enroll at private colleges) exceeded the national four-year

completion rate at both public and private colleges (Figure 4) Among students who attended private

colleges, Vermont students were six percentage points more likely to graduate within four years than

the national average And among students who attended public colleges, Vermont students were 12

percentage points more likely to graduate within four years than the national average

_

2 This completion rate includes students who attained either an associate degree or a bachelor’s degree

Figure 4 Four-year outcomes rates of first-time, full-time students who started

at a four-year school (includes students who transferred schools)

Completion data from high school classes prior to the Class of 2012 suggests, however, that by the end

of six years the difference between the Vermont completion rate and the national completion rate will narrow substantially For example, the six-year completion rate for the Vermont Class of 2010 was 74.5 percent3, while the national six-year completion rate was 70 percent

For those high school graduates who enrolled full-time at a four-year school immediately after high school graduation, over 56 percent received a bachelor’s degree within four years: 51 percent from the school at which they started, and an additional 5 percent from a school different from the one at which they started More than three percent attained an associate degree (Figure 5)

While Vermont’s four-year completion rate is higher than the national average, wide inequities remain between first- and second-generation students, between males and females, and between students from different regions of the state

In this study, we looked at some of the factors that were negatively associated with students’ on-time completion: transferring schools, taking a semester off, or enrolling less than full-time for a semester or more Other researchers have identified additional factors regarding student enrollment patterns that tend to jeopardize timely completion, such as taking 12 credits per semester rather than 15, though we were unable to evaluate these factors in this study (Complete College America, 2014)

For many members of the Class of 2012, the journey through postsecondary education was not straightforward By the start of their second year, 11 percent had dropped out and did not re-enroll at any institution, while another 10 percent had transferred to another school (Figure 5) Within four years, _

3 As noted previously, the college-going rate of Vermont high school graduates is lower than the national average However, Vermonters enrolled at four-year institutions (which tend to have higher completion rates) at a higher rate than the national average As a result, Vermont has a slightly higher percentage of high school graduates who attained a degree within six years, compared with the national average

the number of transfers had doubled; one in five had transferred to another institution Of even greater concern, by the fall of 2016, 22 percent of immediate continuers who had started full-time at a four-yearschool had left postsecondary education without attaining a degree

Figure 5 High school graduates who started full-time at a four-year school (n= 2,742)

Enrollment at the start of the academic year

The implications for state education and economic development goals become even more clear when

we consider all students from the Class of 2012, not just those who enrolled full-time immediately after

high school at a four-year school As we shall explore in Section B, when we consider all students from

the class who enrolled immediately after high school, full-time or part-time, at a two- or a four-year

institution, the percentage of students who left school without a degree is substantially greater At the

time of this study, 27 percent of the Class of 2012 who had enrolled immediately after high school had

dropped out without receiving a degree

This has substantial negative implications for both the individuals and their communities The economicvalue of a college education accrues almost entirely when the degree is conferred Individuals who begin

a college education without earning a degree frequently accumulate debt without receiving the full

eco-nomic value of their education According to the College Board (College Board, 2015), the student loan

default rate among borrowers who did not graduate was nearly three times higher than the student loandefault rate among those who graduated

Reducing the percentage of Vermonters that start college but do not attain a degree would benefit not

only the individuals, but the communities in which they reside Successfully obtaining a postsecondary

degree is associated with greater levels of home ownership (Chakrabarti, 2017), better health, lower

unemployment, and greater civic participation (Baum, 2013) The Lumina Foundation (Lumina, 2017),

using Census data, has estimated that there are 55,000 working-age Vermont residents who have some

college education but no degree

Graduated within

4 years

Factors associated with college completion

Students from the Class of 2012 who enrolled full-time at four-year institutions varied in their economic characteristics, their academic preparation, and other factors associated with the likelihood

socio-of achieving their academic goals successfully In the remainder socio-of this section, we explore the association

of these factors with students’ completion In particular, we examine enrollment patterns, academicpreparation, geographic region, the school at which students initially enrolled, parents’ educational attainment, and the influence of parental involvement in their children’s postsecondary planning

Enrollment patterns

Continuous enrollment and remaining at the same school for four years varied by institution Studentswho started at a private college were more likely to remain at the same school full-time for four consecutiveyears than students who started at a public college Of the students who started full-time at a privatecollege, 63 percent enrolled full-time through the fall of 2015, compared with 55 percent among studentswho started at a public college (Figure 6) The exception to this was the University of Vermont: 74 percent

of students who started at the University of Vermont full-time in the fall of 2012 returned each year forfour consecutive years

Figure 6 Continuous full-time enrollment rates by sector

Members of the Class of 2012 who enrolled full-time for four consecutive years at the same school hadthe highest completion rate: 84 percent attained a degree within four years However, only 53 percent ofthose students who started full-time at a four-year school remained continuously enrolled full-time at thesame school The remainder had enrollment patterns that were associated with a decreased likelihood ofgraduating in four years These included transferring schools, enrolling part-time for at least a semester,and stopping-out (Figure 7)

Nine percent of students in this cohort were enrolled continuously but transferred from one institution

to another The average four-year completion rate of this group of students was 54 percent Studentswho transfer frequently lose credits that are not accepted by the receiving institution This loss of creditstakes a substantial social and financial toll on students’ time and resources A recent study by the U.S

Government Accountability Office (GAO, 2017) estimated that students who transferred schools lostabout 40 percent of the credits that they had earned

63%

55%

Federal and state policymakers across the nation have identified as a significant policy priority the nation of barriers to transferring credits between institutions It is also critical that institutions of higher education work with students who are considering transferring to help them understand the potential

elimi-impact of loss of credits, extended time to degree, and increased student loan debt

Another factor that decreased the average four-year completion rate was enrolling less than full-time for

a least one semester Seven percent of the students in this cohort enrolled continuously but decreased

their enrollment intensity to less than full-time for at least one semester The average completion rate of this group was 53 percent

Taking a break from school (15 percent of the students in this cohort) had the highest association with

failure to complete a degree within four years Forty two percent of students who left after one or two

semesters had not re-enrolled by the fall of 2015, and only 14 percent of the students who re-enrolled

after leaving school for a semester or more attained a degree within four years Analysis of data from

the Vermont High School Class of 2010 reveals that this relationship persists beyond four years—only 22 percent of students who left school after having enrolled full-time at a four-year school attained a

degree within six years

Figure 7 The relationship between enrollment patterns and degree completion

So far in this report, we have identified factors—such as enrolling continuously on a full-time basis—

that are associated with timely completion of a postsecondary degree once someone has enrolled in

a postsecondary institution However, the path to successfully attaining a postsecondary degree starts

many years before a student ever steps into a college classroom There are many factors associated withcollege enrollment and completion that occur prior to college enrollment The factors we looked at as part

of this evaluation included the coursework students completed while they were in high school and the

overall high school GPA they earned Other factors we examined included parental influence, gender,

and first-generation status

84%

14%

Enrolled continuously full-time at the same institution

Enrolled continuously, transferred schools

Enrolled continuously, less than full-time for

at least one semester

Left school and re-enrolled

Academic preparation

We examined three factors to characterize students’ academic preparation for college-level work: completion

of Algebra II, overall high school GPA, and completion of an Advanced Placement course in high school

Algebra II has long been considered an important course to help prepare students for college-level work

“The Toolbox Revisited” (Adelman, 2006) shows not only the importance of Algebra II, but the importance

of each successive mathematics course after Algebra II According to Adelman, high school students whocomplete mathematics courses beyond Algebra II are more likely to earn a bachelor’s degree than eitherthose who do not complete Algebra II or those who do not complete any math beyond Algebra II

Our survey data for the Class of 2012 is limited to whether students completed Algebra II Starting in 2014,however, we expanded the survey to include all of the math courses that students completed while inhigh school Analysis of the Class of 2014 data confirms the importance of completing higher level mathcourses: 79 percent of students from the Vermont High School Class of 2014 who took Algebra II buttook no math course beyond Algebra II persisted to a second year of postsecondary education Those whotook at least one additional year of math beyond Algebra II had a persistence rate 14 percentage pointshigher, 93 percent

Table 1 shows that taking Algebra II, earning an overall high school GPA of A, and completing an AdvancedPlacement course were all associated with higher rates of postsecondary degree completion Three-quarters of students who took Algebra II and received an overall high school GPA of A attained a degreewithin four years The completion rate of students who took Algebra II but had an overall high schoolGPA less than an A was almost 30 percentage points lower, 47 percent

As we will discuss later in the report, first-generation males had the lowest college enrollment and completion rates However, within this group of first-generation males, higher completion rates were associated with academic preparation: The completion rate of first-generation males who took Algebra IIand received an overall GPA of A was 66 percent, while the completion rate of first-generation males whotook Algebra II but had an overall high school GPA of less than an A was 38 percent

Table 1 shows that degree completion is also associated with the completion of an Advanced Placement(AP) course while in high school Taken together, these findings suggest ways to identify and support students in high school who are at risk of not successfully transitioning to education or training afterhigh school; they also enable postsecondary institutions to identify, support, and target interventions toward those students most at risk of dropping out or taking more than four years to attain a degree

Using a statistical model discussed later in this paper, we found that academic preparation, gender, and parents’ educational attainment all were associated with on-time completion4 Further, we foundthat academic preparation had a stronger association with on-time college completion than did gender

or parents’ education level, when each factor is tested individually

_

4 The statistical model is discussed later in this report and in Appendix A We used logistic regression to assess individually how well each of following factors predicted completion: gender, parents’ education level, completion of Algebra II, high school GPA, students’ perception of their parents’ post-high school desires, and when parents first talked to their children about their post-high school plans We also constructed a multivariable model to predict completion while accounting for the influence of other factors.

Table 1 Academic preparation factors associated with postsecondary aspiration,

enrollment, and completion

Academic preparation differences between students enrolled at different schools

Students’ choice of institution differed by academic preparation Students who started at one of the Vermont

State Colleges were the least likely to report that they had completed Algebra II or an Advanced Placementcourse or attained an overall high school GPA of A, while students who started at the University of Vermonthad the highest rates of Algebra II completion, Advanced Placement courses, and an overall GPA of A

(Table 2) Eighteen percent of Vermont students who enrolled at one of the Vermont State Colleges

re-ported that they had taken Algebra II and had attained an overall GPA of A in high school, compared with

67 percent of Vermont students who enrolled at the University of Vermont Forty-six percent of studentsenrolled at a Vermont independent college reported that they had attained an overall GPA of A

Table 2 Students’ academic preparation by sector

(at a 4-year school) (at a 4-year school) (started full-time

at a 4-year school)

Did not complete an Advanced

STARTING SECTOR Completed Completed an Attained overall 1) Completed

Algebra II Advanced high school Algebra II and

Placement (AP) GPA of A 2) attained an

GPA of A

Completion rates by institution, sector, and location

Completion rates varied by the type of institution that students attended Related to this, we found thatthe types of institutions students attended differed by first-generation status Of the students who en-rolled at private institutions, 32 percent identified themselves as first-generation By comparison, of thestudents who enrolled at public institutions, 43 percent identified themselves as first-generation

We also found variation among students who enrolled at Vermont public intuitions with respect to parents’education level Although there is overlap, Vermont’s public institutions tend to serve somewhat differentpopulations of students Sixty-one percent of the Vermont students who enrolled at one of the VermontState Colleges identified themselves as first-generation, compared with 27 percent of the Vermont studentswho enrolled at the University of Vermont

Some schools have historically had higher graduation rates than others In order to examine this moreclosely, we looked at Vermont institutions that enrolled more than 50 students from the Class of 2012 inthe fall of 2012 We found that students who started at Saint Michael’s College had the highest completionrate Students who started at the University of Vermont had the highest completion rate among Vermontpublic institutions Vermont students who attended Castleton University had a similar completion rate asthose who attended non-Vermont public institutions6(Figure 8)

Figure 8 Completion rates for the Class of 2012 by institution/sector

Vermont institutions with enrollments greater than 50 students from the Class of 2012 are listed individually

College

Non- Vermont public

Castleton University Johnson State

College

Lyndon State College

4-year degree from starting school 2-year degree from starting school 2- or 4-year degree from different school 66%

54%

31% 31%

6 Vermont Technical College (VTC) is a public institution that offers both associate degrees and bachelor’s degrees According

to IPEDS, VTC awards more associate degrees than bachelor’s degrees Student responses from the Senior Survey were used to determine whether students at VTC were pursuing an associate degree or a bachelor’s degree Additionally, students’ enrollment intensity was not provided to NSC by VTC Student responses from the Senior Survey were used to determine students’ enrollment intensity.

We found that students who reported similar academic preparation had different completion rates, depending

on the institution and (private or public) sector where they first enrolled In this analysis, we separated

students into two groups, all of whom took Algebra II7 The first group reported an overall high school

grade point average of A The second group reported an overall high school grade point average of B8

Figure 9 shows the differences in completion rates among “A” and “B” students by institution type

Students who took Algebra II and reported an overall high school GPA of A were more likely to have

higher completion rates overall, about 28 percentage points on average: The average completion rate

of students who took Algebra II and reported an overall high school GPA of A was 68 percent, comparedwith 40 percent among students who reported an overall high school GPA of B

Among “A” students who started at a private institution or the University of Vermont, about seven out

of 10 attained a four-degree within four years from the same school Among “A” students who started atone of the Vermont State Colleges9or a public institution outside of Vermont, the completion rates werelower, 53 percent and 56 percent, respectively

There were also differences in completion rates among “B” students These ranged from 53 percent amongstudents who started at Vermont private institutions to 29 percent among students who started at publicinstitutions outside of Vermont Additionally, there was variation in completion rates at the end of four yearsamong “B” students who started one of the Vermont State Colleges: Castleton University, 36 percent; VermontTechnical College, 28 percent; Lyndon State College, 26 percent; and Johnson State College, 24 percent

Figure 9 Completion rates by sector and academic preparation

Completion rates shown include four-year degrees attained from students’ starting school

Took Algebra II and

had an overall high school

GPA of A

Took Algebra II and had an overall high school GPA of B

Vermont private University of Vermont Non-Vermont private 4-year Vermont State Colleges Non-Vermont public

Average

Average

_

7 Within this cohort (students who started full-time at four-year institutions in the fall of 2012), 97 percent reported that

they had completed Algebra II.

8 For students who started full-time at four-year schools, 49 percent reported that they had attained an overall high school

GPA of A, 46 reported that they had attained an overall high school GPA of B, and 5 percent reported that they had attained

an overall high school GPA of C.

9 For Figure 9, only the University of Vermont is listed by itself All other schools, which were listed previously in Figure 8,

were combined into their respective (private or public) sectors because of small sample sizes.

Parents’ educational levels

There is large disparity in educational attainment between first- and second-generation high schoolgraduates As noted earlier, we define first-generation students as those whose parents do not have abachelor’s degree, while second-generation students are defined as those with at least one parent whohas attained at least a bachelor’s degree Over time, the percentage of first-generation high school grad-uates in each cohort has gradually decreased In 2001, 55 percent of graduates were first-generation In

2012, one-half of the graduates were first-generation; one-half were second-generation In 2014, for thefirst time, the percentage of second-generation high school graduates was greater than the percentage

of first-generation graduates, 52 percent compared with 48 percent We expect that over time this trendwill have a positive influence on college aspiration and enrollment rates

Nonetheless, a major concern for Vermont’s future is the ability to engage all students, especially generation students, in postsecondary education Compared with second-generation high school graduates,fewer first-generation graduates were enrolled in college by the fall of 2012 (73 percent and 51 percent,respectively) This disparity persists in our analysis of completion Only 53 percent of first-generation students completed a degree within four years, compared with 64 percent of second-generation students(Figure 10) First-generation students who began full-time at a four-year institution with the intention ofobtaining a four-year degree were also more likely to obtain an associate degree instead, six percentcompared with two percent

first-Figure 10 Completion rates by parents’ educational attainment

Of students who started full-time at a four-year school

County of residence and parents’ education level

Geography continues to be strongly associated with educational opportunity in Vermont VSAC’s previousresearch documented wide variation in both aspirations and enrollment for first-generation students bycounty These patterns persist for on-time degree completion Among first-generation students, four-year completion rates range from a low of 33 percent in Caledonia County to a high of 62 percent inWashington County The counties with the largest differences in on-time completion rates between first-and second-generation students (ranging from 17 to19 percentage points) were Caledonia, Lamoille, andChittenden counties The counties with the smallest differences (ranging from -1.7 to 1.2 percentagepoints) were Bennington, Washington, and Windham counties

Bachelor's degree Associate degree

64%

53%

Bennington County is unique in that a higher percentage of first-generation students attained a degree

within four years than second-generation students did, 58 percent compared with 56 percent However,

it is important to remember that these percentages include only those who enrolled full-time at a

four-year school In Section B of this paper, we show the degree attainment rates of all high school graduates From that perspective, the first-generation students from Bennington County had a lower degree attain-ment rate than second-generation high school graduates, 26 percent compared with 37 percent This is because first-generation high school graduates are much less likely than second-generation high school graduates to enroll in postsecondary education

Low degree attainment rates are amplified by low enrollment rates For example, only 16 percent of all

first-generation students among the Class of 2012 from Caledonia County received a degree within four years after high school, compared with 30 percent of all first-generation students among the Class of

2012 from Washington County10

Figure 11 Completion rates by county and parents’ education level

High school graduates who started full-time at a four-year school

_

10 See Figure 20, “Degree attainment rates within four years of high school graduates by Vermont County and parents’

education level, Class of 2012.”

Statewide average: 53%

Second-generation high school graduates

Parental involvement

Parents play a critical role in helping their children formulate their post-high school plans Students whose parents started talking with them earlier in their education about post-high school plans were more likely to continue their education than students whose parents waited until high school to start these conversations And the role that parents play in their children’s lives does not end at high school graduation Frequently, children need emotional support and encouragement to make the transition from high school to college and to succeed in college Parental involvement—as measured by when they started talking to their children about post-high school plans—was associated with postsecondary aspiration, enrollment, and (to a lesser extent) postsecondary completion (Table 3) Students whose parents started talking to them before the 9th grade about post-high school plans had higher four-year completion rates (63 percent) than students whose parents waited until high school to discuss those plans (58 percent)

There was also variation in students’ perception of what their parents wanted them to do after high school graduation Some students reported that their parents wanted them to continue their education after high school, while other students reported their parents wanted them to pursue other options, such

as working full-time or joining the military Students who felt their parents wanted them to pursue education after high school had higher college-going rates on average, 69 percent compared with 26 percent Parental influence was reflected in completion rates as well Students who felt their parents wanted them to pursue education had higher college completion rates on average, 61 percent compared with 54 percent This suggests that parents’ pre-high school conversations and clarity of expectations may have a tremendous influence on their children’s postsecondary enrollment and success

Table 3 Parental influence factors associated with postsecondary aspiration, enrollment,

and completion

(at a 4-year school) (at a 4-year school) (started full-time

at a 4-year school)

_

11 Chi-square results show a statistically significant difference in each of the factors with respect to completion Completion includes either a two- or four-year degree

Statistical model

We used statistical modeling to confirm the differences in the completion rates discussed above Detailsregarding methodology and results can be found in Appendix A Initially, we tested each of the main factorswith a logistic regression model to determine whether its relationship with on-time completion was

statistically significant In particular, we created models for gender, first-generation status, Algebra II

completion, overall high school GPA, parental expectation toward their child’s postsecondary education,and when post-high school conversations started Each of these factors were found to be significantly

associated with on-time completion on their own

We found that some factors had a stronger relationship with college completion relative to other factors.For example, college completion had stronger associations with academic preparation factors than witheither gender or parents’ education level Our model showed that the estimated odds of completing collegewere 72 percent lower among students who did not take Algebra II than among those who did take it

and 71 percent lower among students who attained less than a high school GPA of A relative to those

who attained a high school GPA of A On the other hand, the estimated odds of completion were only

37 percent lower among males compared with females and 38 percent lower among first-generation

students compared with second-generation students (Appendix A, Table A1)

In the previous sections and in the individual models discussed above, we examined how each individualfactor is related to college completion, but these factors are also related to each other For example, studentswhose parents began talking to them about college earlier in their education were more likely to be female,were more likely to be second-generation, and were more likely to complete Algebra II while in high

school This makes it more difficult to identify those factors that influence student success and those

that appear important simply due to their association with other influential factors Because of this, we

built a multivariable logistic regression model that simultaneously uses many of the factors mentioned

in this paper to predict college success By including multiple factors within the same model, we could

test whether a given factor (for example, completing Algebra II) was associated with four-year college

completion even while controlling for the influence of other factors (for example, gender or parental

education level)

The results from this multivariable statistical model, found in Appendix A, confirm that gender,

first-generation status, Algebra II completion, GPA, and parental attitude toward postsecondary education

each contribute in important ways to students’ college completion

It is important to note, however, that these are not the only factors that influence student success A

host of other factors not included in this paper are involved with students successfully navigating their

postsecondary journey These include, but are not limited to, such things as financial aid to offset financialbarriers, adequate counseling and academic advising, and making satisfactory academic progress while

in college

Section B: Vermont High School Class of 2012 education outcomes

So far in this report, we have looked at the students who started full-time at four-year schools In thissection, we take a step back and look at the entire Class of 2012 to describe and evaluate their enrollmentand degree attainment at two- and four-year schools within four years of high school graduation

Since 2008, the patterns of postsecondary aspiration, enrollment, and completion among Vermont highschool graduates have remained stable: About 70 percent planned to enroll at a two- or four-year school

in the fall following their high school graduation, while about 60 percent actually enrolled (Figure 12)

Slightly more than a third of each class we followed since 2008 has attained either an associate or bachelor’sdegree within four years12 After six years, 45 percent of students from both the classes of 2008 and

2010 had attained a degree13

Figure 12 The postsecondary aspiration, enrollment, and outcomes at two- or four-year schools

Vermont high school classes of 2008, 2010, and 2012

Note: Graduation rates listed are for the entire high school class graduating class, which includes those who did not continue their education

Immediate and delayed enrollment of the Class of 2012

Almost seven out of 10 students from the Class of 2012 (69 percent) enrolled at a two- or four-year schoolwithin four years of graduation (Figure 13) Most, 60 percent, enrolled immediately after high school Ninepercent of the Class of 2012 delayed their enrollment by one or more semesters: Six percent enrolledafter a one-year delay, and an additional three percent enrolled after a delay of more than one year Ofthe people who delayed enrollment, close to half, 43 percent, were students who had planned duringtheir senior year in high school to enroll immediately after high school

(2- or 4-year school)

Graduated within 6 years (2- or 4-year school)

Class of 2008 Class of 2010 Class of 2012

_

12 The VSAC Senior Survey is administered to Vermont high school seniors every other year on years ending in an even number

13 We plan to follow the Class of 2012 and report the six-year completion rate of this class

Figure 13 Year of first postsecondary enrollment, Class of 2012

Enrollment at a two- or four-year postsecondary institution (n= 5,840)

Thirty-one percent of the Class of 2012 did not enroll in postsecondary education within four years

Of the students who did not enroll within this four-year period, seven out of 10 were first-generation

students (Figure 14), and four out of 10 were first-generation males

Figure 14 Students who had not enrolled within four years of high school graduation,

by gender and parents’ education level

The longer students waited to enroll in postsecondary education following high school graduation, the

more likely they were to enroll in a two-year school rather than a four-year school Twelve percent of

students who enrolled immediately after high school graduation enrolled at two-year school The

per-centage increased to 40 percent for those who waited one year after high school graduation to enroll

and increased to 58 percent for those who waited two or more years to enroll (Table 4)

In addition, the longer students delayed enrollment, the more likely they were to enroll at a Vermont

institution One-half of students who enrolled immediately after high school graduation enrolled at a

Vermont school This percentage increased to 57 percent for those who waited one year after high school

to enroll and increased to 63 percent for those who waited two or more years Table 4 presents a more

detailed look at the ways in which students who delayed their enrollment chose different types of

insti-tutions than those who enrolled immediately after high school graduation

Second-generation female

Table 4 The postsecondary enrollment by sector and enrollment starting time

Not everyone who planned to enroll at a two- or four-year school enrolled National estimates of what iscommonly referred to as “summer melt” range from 8 to 40 percent (Castleman, 2014) For the VermontClass of 2012, 16 percent planned to enroll in the fall of 2012 but did not These students can be catego-rized in two ways—those who delayed enrollment and those who never enrolled—both of which havepolicy implications

While their circumstances may have prevented them from enrolling in the fall of 2012, 30 percent of students in the summer melt group were able to enroll by the fall of 2015 As previously mentioned,

we found that students who delay enrollment in postsecondary education have lower completion ratesthan those who start their postsecondary education immediately after high school More work needs to

be done to better understand the reasons why this group of Vermonters defers enrollment, and to helpthem overcome the barriers that prevent them from enrolling immediately after high school graduation

Nearly one-third of the Class of 2012 had not enrolled in postsecondary education within four years ofhigh school graduation Most of these were students who did not plan to enroll in postsecondary educa-tion immediately after high school graduation (22 percent) However, nine percent were members of thesummer melt group This highlights the second challenge posed by summer melt—a significant portion

of the Class of 2012 (approximately 500 students) planned to pursue higher education but never arrived

Figure 15 Postsecondary enrollment status within four years, Vermont Class of 2012

Enrollment at a two- or four-year postsecondary institution (n= 5,840)

Figure 15 shows the education outcomes of the Class of 2012 by the fall of 2015, regardless of their

enrollment start time Sixty-nine percent had enrolled at a two- or four-year school within four years

Thirty percent of the entire class attained a bachelor’s degree, while four percent attained an associate

degree Fifteen percent of the class were still enrolled in postsecondary education, and 21 percent had

enrolled but left Thirty-one percent of the Class of 2012 had not enrolled at a two- or four-year institution

by the fall of 2015, four years after high school graduation

Immediate postsecondary enrollment after high school graduation is associated with higher on-time

completion rates As stated earlier in this report, of those who started postsecondary education ately after high school, 56 percent attained a bachelor’s degree within four years Looking at high schoolclasses of 2008 and 2010, we were able to compare the on-time completion rates of students who enrolledimmediately after high school with those who postponed their enrollment by one year Students of the

immedi-classes of 2008 and 2010 who postponed postsecondary enrollment by one year had dramatically loweron-time completion rates (Figure 16) even after accounting for their delayed start

Figure 16 On-time completion rate for bachelor’s degree recipients

Immediate enrollment versus one-year delayed enrollment

Delayed enrollment