Florida Results For 9/15/2012—9/16/2012 ppt

The poll asked about hypothetical matchup between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist and between Rick Scott and Buddy Dyer.. In a hypothetical race for Governor in 2014, would you vote for Rep

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Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, and Capitol

Correspondent conducted a telephone survey of 1,728 likely

voters in the state of Florida on the afternoon and early

even-ing of September 15th and 16th, 2012 The questions covered

preference for a given presidential candidate, the Florida U.S

Senate Race between Connie Mack and Bill Nelson, and

Gov-ernor Rick Scott’s performance rating The full list of

ques-tions are given on page 5 Overall, Romney holds a 47.7% to

a 47.1% lead over Obama, with a margin of error of about

2.5% The Romney lead of 0.6% is a decline of 0.7% from a

1.3% lead on September 2, 2012 The results are generally in

line with recent polls from Rasmussen Reports (Obama +2),

NBC/WSJ/Marist (Obama +5), AIR/McLaughlin (Romney

+3), SurveyUSA (Obama +4), and PPP (Obama +1) The

fig-ures reported in this report are more recent, being as of

Sep-tember 15-16, 2012

Analysis

How does the race look according to party?

When looking at the presidential race according to party,

Romney holds a 3 point lead among party adherents, with a

two point lead in taking votes from the Democratic party

Romney also holds a 3.7% lead among individuals that are

independent or unsure of their party affiliation The results

are reported on the following page

How about the race between Mack and Nelson?

The race between Republican Connie Mack and Democrat Bill

Nelson continues to be close, with the most recent poll results

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

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Florida Results

giving Mack a 42.7% to 41.5% lead As has been the case so far, the race

will likely be settled based on the unsure voters, representing about 16%

of the total group of likely voters

The Poll asked about whether George Zimmerman is guilty in the death

of Trevon Martin: how does this relate to the Presidential race?

The George Zimmerman case breaks down distinctly when looking at the

presidential race, with 73% of likely Obama voters indicating they think

he is guilty of murder, whereas 80% of likely Romney voters indicating they do not think he is guilty of

murder Among likely voters that indicated they were unsure or didn’t know enough about the case, ney holds a 48%/45% or 51%/44% lead over likely Obama voters

Rom-How do likely voters feel about Rick Scott’s performance as Governor?

Overall, voters are more negative on Rick Scott, with 40% giving him a negative rating, while 33% giving

Party affiliation? / Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan?

Democrat Republican Other/Unsure

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Florida Results For 9/15/2012 – 9/16/2012

him a positive rating; about 27% indicate they are unsure of his performance The crosstabs results contain more information on the question

The poll asked about hypothetical matchup between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist and between Rick Scott and Buddy Dyer What’s the story there?

The results of the two questions are reported on the following page Overall, in a hypothetical race between Rick Scott and Buddy Dyer, Rick Scott comes out ahead by a 13 point margin, 42% to 29% In a hypothetical race between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist, Crist holds the lead at 44% to 42%

Is Zimmerman guilty in the death of Trevon Martin? / Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan?

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Florida Results

Rick Scott or Buddy Dyer?

Scott Dyer Other/U

Rick Scott or Buddy Dyer?

Rick Scott or Buddy Dyer?

Scott Dyer Other/Unsure

Rick Scott or Charlie Crist?

Scott Crist Other/U 0%

Rick Scott or Charlie Crist?

Rick Scott or Charlie Crist?

Scott Crist Other/Unsure

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Florida Results For 9/15/2012—9/16/2012

Is America headed in the right direction?

When looking at this question according to party, two third of Democrats think America is on the right track, while over four fifths of Republicans think America is on the wrong track Interestingly, about 60% of individuals that do not identify themselves with a party think America is on the wrong track, while only 24% think the nation is on the right track

Party affiliation? / U.S headed in the right direction?

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Florida Results

How does Gary Johnson impact the race?

The inclusion of Gary Johnson in the race lowers Romney’s overall take from 47.7% to 46.7% and lowers Obama’s overall take from 47.1% to 45.5%

How do likely voters feel about Obama’s job performance in relation to age group?

Overall, likely voters disapprove of Obama’s job performance by a 49% to 45% margin When looking at the issue in relation to age group, Obama is approved by younger voters, while having a disapproval rating above 50% for all other age categories Obama’s disapproval rating is highest among likely voters aged 50 and over, with a close second being likely voters aged 30 to 39 Interestingly, Obama’s disapproval rating doesn’t consistently get worse as the age group gets older, rather there’s a bump down in his disapproval rating among 40 to 49 year olds

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Florida Results For 9/15/2012—9/16/2012

1 Are you a registered voter?

2 Do you plan on voting in the presidential election on November 6th?

3 Which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of?

4 What’s your race?

5 What’s your religious affiliation?

6 What’s your age group? 18-29; 30-39; 40-49; 50+

7 What’s your gender?

8 Do you approve of Barack Obama’s general performance as President?

9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

10 If the election were held today, would you vote for Obama-Biden, Romney-Ryan, or note sure?

11 If the election were held today, would you vote for Obama, Romney, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or someone else/ unsure?

12 Do you think the United States of America is headed in the right direction?

13 If the election were held today, would you vote for Connie Mack or Bill Nelson?

14 How would you rate Rick Scott’s job performance as Governor?

15 In a hypothetical race for Governor in 2014, would you vote for Republican Rick Scott or Democrat Charlie

Crist?

16 In a hypothetical race for Governor in 2014, would you vote for Republican Rick Scott or Democrat Buddy Dyer?

17 Final question is concerning the State of Florida versus George Zimmerman: Do you believe that George merman is guilty or not guilty in the death of Trevon Martin?

Zim-The results were weighted by the anticipated voting groups in the upcoming 2012 election

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Obama, Romney, Johnson

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log type: smcl

opened on: 17 Sep 2012, 13:56:34

tab2 partyaffiliation race religiousaffiliation agegroup gender approveofoba

> masperformance favorableorunfavorableopinionofr obamabidenromneyryanorotheru

> nsur obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure usheadedintherightdirection macknelsonoth

> er rickscottsperformanceasgovernor hypothetical2014rickscottorcharl hypothet

> ical2014rickscottorbuddy iszimmermanguiltyinthedeathoftre, cell chi2 lrchi2

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by religiousaffiliation

affiliation? Catholic Jewish Muslim Other/Uns Protestan

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by agegroup

affiliation? 18-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total Democrat 7.42 7.93 7.78 19.77 42.90

Independent/Other 3.55 3.44 4.06 6.70 17.74

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-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by approveofobamasperformance

affiliation? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total

Democrat 34.68 5.44 2.72 42.84

Independent/Other 6.65 9.18 1.69 17.52

Total 45.19 49.16 5.66 100.00

Pearson chi2( 4) = 1.3e+03 Pr = 0.000

likelihood-ratio chi2( 4) = 1.4e+03 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by favorableorunfavorableopinionofr

Favorable or unfavorable opinion

Pearson chi2( 4) = 1.1e+03 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by obamabidenromneyryanorotherunsur

Pearson chi2( 4) = 1.5e+03 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure

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Party Obama, Romney, Johnson, Other/Unsure?

affiliation? Johnson Obama Other/Uns Romney Total Democrat 0.61 36.06 1.26 4.56 42.49

Independent/Other 1.98 6.20 1.90 7.27 17.34

Total 3.54 45.53 4.26 46.67 100.00

Pearson chi2( 6) = 1.5e+03 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by usheadedintherightdirection

U.S headed in the right

Pearson chi2( 4) = 1.0e+03 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by macknelsonother

affiliation? Mack Nelson Unsure/Ot Total

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor

Rick Scott's performance as

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Hypothetical 2014: Rick Scott or

Party Charlie Crist?

affiliation? Crist Scott Unsure Total

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by hypothetical2014rickscottorbuddy

Party Buddy Dyer?

affiliation? Dyer Scott Unsure Total

-> tabulation of partyaffiliation by iszimmermanguiltyinthedeathoftre

Is Zimmerman guilty in the death of Trevon

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-> tabulation of race by approveofobamasperformance

Approve of Obama's performance?

Race? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total

-> tabulation of race by favorableorunfavorableopinionofr

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-> tabulation of race by obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure

Obama, Romney, Johnson, Other/Unsure?

Race? Johnson Obama Other/Uns Romney Total

-> tabulation of race by usheadedintherightdirection

-> tabulation of race by macknelsonother

Mack, Nelson, Other?

Race? Mack Nelson Unsure/Ot Total

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Pearson chi2( 8) = 59.7099 Pr = 0.000

likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) = 57.0657 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of race by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor

-> tabulation of race by hypothetical2014rickscottorcharl

-> tabulation of race by hypothetical2014rickscottorbuddy

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-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by agegroup

affiliation? 18-29 30-39 40-49 50+ Total Catholic 4.27 3.69 5.87 15.17 29.00

-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by approveofobamasperformance

affiliation? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total

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Pearson chi2( 8) = 196.4872 Pr = 0.000

likelihood-ratio chi2( 8) =

-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by favorableorunfavorableopinionofr

-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure

affiliation? Johnson Obama Other/Uns Romney Total Catholic 0.72 12.51 1.18 14.76 29.17

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-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by macknelsonother

affiliation? Mack Nelson Unsure/Ot Total

-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor

-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by hypothetical2014rickscottorcharl

Religious Charlie Crist?

affiliation? Crist Scott Unsure Total

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Religious Buddy Dyer?

affiliation? Dyer Scott Unsure Total

-> tabulation of religiousaffiliation by iszimmermanguiltyinthedeathoftre

-> tabulation of agegroup by approveofobamasperformance

Age group? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total

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Pearson chi2( 6) = 33.4040 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of agegroup by favorableorunfavorableopinionofr

-> tabulation of agegroup by obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure

Age group? Johnson Obama Other/Uns Romney Total

-> tabulation of agegroup by usheadedintherightdirection

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-> tabulation of agegroup by macknelsonother

Age group? Mack Nelson Unsure/Ot Total

-> tabulation of agegroup by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor

-> tabulation of agegroup by hypothetical2014rickscottorcharl

-> tabulation of agegroup by hypothetical2014rickscottorbuddy

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-> tabulation of gender by approveofobamasperformance

Gender? Approve Disapprov Other/Uns Total

-> tabulation of gender by favorableorunfavorableopinionofr

-> tabulation of gender by obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure

Gender? Johnson Obama Other/Uns Romney Total

Female 1.41 27.12 1.10 21.76 51.39

Total 3.54 45.53 4.26 46.67 100.00

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Pearson chi2( 3) = 77.3750 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of gender by usheadedintherightdirection

-> tabulation of gender by macknelsonother

Gender? Mack Nelson Unsure/Ot Total

-> tabulation of gender by rickscottsperformanceasgovernor

-> tabulation of gender by hypothetical2014rickscottorcharl

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-> tabulation of gender by iszimmermanguiltyinthedeathoftre

Pearson chi2( 4) = 1.6e+03 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of approveofobamasperformance by obamabidenromneyryanorotherunsu

Pearson chi2( 4) = 2.4e+03 Pr = 0.000

-> tabulation of approveofobamasperformance by obamaromneyjohnsonotherunsure

Tiêu đề	Florida Results For 9/15/2012—9/16/2012 PPT
Trường học	University of Florida
Chuyên ngành	Political Science
Thể loại	research report
Năm xuất bản	2012
Thành phố	Gainesville

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