Day la mat bang lai suat kha cao khi xet trdn nam mat: cao so vdi cung ky nam trude; cao so vdi dinh hudng trdn; cao so vdi mat bang lai suat cua cac nude trong khu vuc va tren the gidi;
Trang 1^nrTiTRTiTirnii»TT:im»
Lam the nao
ha lai suat cho vayP
Nghj quyet 23 cua Chinh phu daa ra djnh hudng hq
mat bdng Idi sud't xudng muc: huy dong 10%/ndm,
cho vay 127o/ndm (gpi tdt Id "vdo 10, ra 12") Vdy
thuc te didn bien ra sao vd Idm the ndo de thuc
hien djnh hudng ndy?
^ PHUONG NGOC MINH
VI diln bien thuc te, mat
bang lai suat ciia Viet
Nam hien nay khoang
13-14%/nam dd'i vdi cho vay va tren
dudi 11,5%/nam dd'i vdi lai suat
huy ddng Day la mat bang lai
suat kha cao khi xet trdn nam mat:
cao so vdi cung ky nam trude; cao
so vdi dinh hudng trdn; cao so vdi
mat bang lai suat cua cac nude
trong khu vuc va tren the gidi; cao
so vdi kha nang sinh Ipi cua ngudi
di vay; do dd han che viec tiep can
vdn, de'n hieu quii va siic canh
tranh ciing nhu viec thuc hien muc tieu tang trudng kinh te' Tdc
dp tang trudng du np tin dung sau
5 thang vln cdn thap
Tinh chung 5 thang (tiic la thang 5/2010 so vdi thang 12/2009), tdc dp tang trudng du np mdi dat xap xi 8,2%, cdn thap xa so vdi chi tieu dinh hudng tang trudng tin dung 25% cho ca nam 2010
Tdc dp tang gia tieu dung thang 4 chi cdn 0,14%, thang 5 chi cdn 0,27%- tile la vaii de ndng nha't da ha nhiet, lai suat giri tiet
kiem da chuyen tir thuc am trong
3 thang tir thang 12/2009 de'n thang 2/2010, sang thuc duong tit thang 3/2010 Neu ca nam nay thuc hien dupe miic tieu tang gia tieu diing khdng vucft qua 7% cua Qudc hdi hoac muc tieu mdi dilu chinh 8% cua Chinh phii, thi lai suat tiet kiem vln thuc duong Nhung thuc te, lai suat huy ddng
da khdng giam ma gan day cdn tang len va hien d miic tren 11,5% Tmh hinh tren dupe ly giai bdi nhilu nguyen nhan cd hdn quan rang budc iSn nhau Cd nguyen nhan do mot so ngan hang thuong mai (NHTM) cd phan nhd, cd vdn dilu le thap, thanh khoan khdng cao hoac gap khd khan, gia tri gia'y td cd gia it, nen phai day manh huy ddng bang lai suat cao hon, nham thu hiit lupng tiln nhan rdi cua dan cu Cac NHTM Idn, cd vdn dilu le cao, tuy khdng gap khd khan vl thanh khoan, tham chi cdn du da vdn de cho vay trdn thi trudng lien ngan hang, cung budc phai nang lai suat huy ddng len de giii chan khach hang Cd nguyen nhan tit
16 Thue Nhi NiTflc • so 24 (286) - K Y 4/6/2010
J
Trang 2Dien nan doanh nghiep
%
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
TOC DO T A N G
(thang sa
2.09
0.26
L _.J
r TRUdNG DUNO TIN DUNG
u so vdi thang trude- %)
2.26
1.64 1.70
Thang 1 Thang 2 Thang 3 Thang 4 Thang 5
ngudi giri tiln mudn cd lai suat
tiet kiem cao, do chua that tin vao
viec kilm che tdc dp tang gia tieu
dung Thdi gian qua gia vang
tang, thi trudng bat dong san am
ndng, Cd nguyen nhan do
Ngan hang Nha nude that chat
chinh sach tiln te trong quy 1,
chua kip thdi ndi long, khi tir quy
II, dien bien kinh te' vi md da
chuyin bien tich cue Van dl
ndng nha't la lam phat da ha nhiet
Van dl ndng thii hai la nhap sieu,
thi thang 5 da giam xudng Thu
chi ngan sach da cd bude chuyen
bien tich cue, can can thanh toan
tdng the cung dupe cai thien mot
budc, khi lupng ngoai te vao Viet
Nam tir cac ngudn dat ket qua kha
va cd tin hieu kha quan (vdn dau
tu true tie'p nude ngoai thuc hien
udc dat 4,5 ty USD, tang 7,1% so
vdi ciing ky nam trude; ngudn vdn
hd trp phat trien chinh thiic giai
ngan dat tren 1/3 ke hoach nam;
ngudn vdn dau tu gian tiep vao
nhilu hon ra the hien d viec tang
ty le giao dich mua rdng lien tuc
trong nhilu tuan cua nha dau tu
nude ngoai trdn thi trudng chung
khoan; lupng kilu hdi klia quan;
tien thu dupe tir khach qudc te de'n
Viet Nam tang, khi lupng khach
de'n tang 32,2% so vdi ciing ky
nam trude)
Tai nhien, "vao 10, ra 12" la
dinh hudng, bdi vdi miic nay, can
phai cd mot thdi gian nhat dinh
mdi cd the dat dupe muc tieu De
thuc hien dupe dinh hudng nay,
can phai thue hien tdt cac giai
phap sau day
Trude hit, phai kilm che dupe
tdc dp tang gia tieu diing, bdi hai mat Mot mat, gia tieu dung sau 5 thang da tang 4,55%, tiic la sau 42% thdi gian da bang 56,9% tdc
dp tang gia tieu diing theo muc tieu
ca nam mdi dieu chinh (cdn theo muc tieu cu da bang 65%), cao gap doi tdc dp tang 2,12% ciia cung ky nam ngoai; hon niia thang 3 - thang
5 tang thap cd phan quan trpng do gia luong thuc giam 3 thang bin, gia thuc pham giam va tang thap;
binh quan 5 thang nam nay so vdi ciing ky nam trude, gia tieu dung
da tang tdi 8,76%; gia tidu dung thudng tang thap vao giiia nam va tang cao vao cudi nam; trong khi gia the gidi tang (the hien d cho so vdi ciing ky nam trude, gia xuat khau tang 8,1%, gia nhap khau cdn tang cao hon) Mat khac, chi khi gia tidu dung dupe kilm che, long
tm vao ddng tiln qudc gia dupe cung cd mot each viing chac, kinh
te vi md tdt len, thi ngudi cd tiln se yen tam hon dl ddn giri
tiln vao he thdng ngan hang N ^ _^_
Thii hai, Viet Nam hien cd qua nhieu ngan hang va quy md ciia nhilu ngan hang cdn qua nhd Viet Nam hien cd 5 ngan hang thuong mai nha nude, 2 ngan hang chinh sach, 37 ngan hang thuong mai cd phan, 50 ngan hang nude ngoai, 5 ngan hang lien doanh, 22 cong ty tai chinh Theo Nghi dinh cua Chinh phii, cac ngan hang phai cd vdn dilu le tdi thieu tit 3.000 ty ddng trd len vao cudi nam nay Hien cdn khoang 20 ngan hang thuong mai nam trong dien nay va thdi ban khong cdn bao lau (Malaysia
cd quy mo GDP Idn ga'p 2 lan Viet Nam, nhung chi cd 43 ngan hang, trong dd 21 ngan hang Hdi giao hoat ddng phi Ipi nhuan- coi nhu khong cd- thuc chat chi cdn
22 ngan hang thuong mai Thai Lan cd GDP cao gap 2,5 lan Viet Nam, nhung chi cd 32 ngan hang, trong dd trong nude cd mot nira) Thir ba, Ngan hang Nha nude can sir dung cac cdng cu dieu tiet tien te cua minh thong qua nghiep vu thi trudng md de bom tien hd trp, sir dung nghiep vu tai cap vdn de hd trp cho viec giam lai suat, dilu hanh mat bang lai suat chu dao nhu lai suat tai cSip vdn, lai suat chiet khau Tuy nhien, can can trpng vl khdi lupng tiln bom ra, thdi gian lau hay mau, viec day du, kip thdi de tranh gay ra lam phat Ciing can luu y, cac ngan hang nhd se cang gap khd khan do cd ra't it giay td
cd gia de vay sd tiln nay •
SO 24 12X6) - KY 4 6 20! 0 • ThUB HJM NUOC 1 7