JGB Issuance Plan for FY2011 doc

JGB total issuance for FY2011 is planned to be 169.6 trillion yen, and the JGB market issuance Calendar Base is planned to be 144.9 trillion yen.. JGB Market Issuance （Calendar Base） No

WHAT’S NEW

Ministry of Finance formulated and announced the JGB Issuance Plan for FY2011 in late

December 2010 The details of the issuance plan are as follows.

JGB total issuance for FY2011 is planned to be 169.6 trillion yen, and the JGB market

issuance (Calendar Base) is planned to be 144.9 trillion yen Both amounts show an increase

from the level of the previous year for three consecutive years

The Ministry of Finance of Japan

Quarterly Newsletter of the Ministry of Finance of Japan

JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS

January 2011 Contents

1 What’s new

2 JGB primary market

3 The Auction for Enhanced-liquidity and Buy-back

4 JGB secondary market

5 JGB outstanding

6 Economic and financial trend

FY2010 (Initial)

6,353.0 7,603.0 1,250.0 6,090.0 ▲ 263.0 ▲ 1,513.0

37,950.0 36,700.0 ▲ 1,250.0 38,208.0 258.0 1,508.0

162,413.9 162,207.8 ▲ 206.0 169,594.3 7,180.4 7,386.4

・

(note) Part of the Buy-back operation in FY2011 is intended to improve ALM in Fiscal Loan Fund Special Account

・ The maximum amount of front-loaded issuance of Refunding Bonds in FY2011 is 12 trillion yen

(note1) Figures may not sum up to total because of rounding

(note2)

(note3)

FY2010 (Initial)

144,300.0 142,800.0 ▲ 1,500.0 144,900.0 600.0 2,100.0

3,982.5 6,177.0 2,194.5 4,005.0 22.5 ▲ 2,172.0

31.4 530.8 499.5 6,389.3 6,357.9 5,858.4

Subtotal Financed in the Market 148,313.9 149,507.8 1,194.0 155,294.3 6,980.4 5,786.4

2,000.0 900.0 ▲ 1,100.0 2,000.0 - 1,100.0

-Subtotal for Households 2,800.0 1,400.0 ▲ 1,400.0 2,500.0 ▲ 300.0 1,100.0

162,413.9 162,207.8 ▲ 206.0 169,594.3 7,180.4 7,386.4

Special Deficit-financing Bonds

The total Buy-back amount from the market is approximately 3 trillion yen in FY2011 From an administrative standpoint, part of the Buy-back

operation will be funded by liquidating the GDCF, which is in line with the outcome of the recent public budget screening initiative carried out on

special accounts of national budget Such Buy-back operation based on a partial liquidation of the GDCF is also carried out in FY2010, amounting

up to approximately 0.8 trillion yen

Total

Total

JGB Market Issuance (Calendar Base) refers to JGBs issued by scheduled auctions from April to next March

JGB Market Issuance

（Calendar Base）

Non-price Competitive

Auction Ⅱ

Adjustment by Depleting

Front-loaded Issuance

Nonmarketable JGBs for Retail

Investors

OTC Sales for Households

FY2010

（Supplementary budget）

FY2011

（Initial）

Construction Bonds

Non-price competitive auction Ⅱ is an auction carried out after the price-competitive auction The price offered is equal to the weighted

average accepted price in the price-competitive auction Only the JGB Market Special Participants are eligible to bid in this auction (the

amount assignable to each Market Special Participant will not exceed 15% of the amount awarded to it in the price-competitive auction)

Non-price competitive auction Ⅱ is estimated at 3.75% of the JGB Market Issuance （40-year, 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year, 2-year,

15-year Floating-rate and 10-year Inflation-indexed)

FY2010

（Supplementary budget/

revised in December）

FY2011

（Initial）

＜Market Issuance Plan by JGB Types＞

(note1)

(note2) With regerd to TBs(6-month), only the total amount is listed because TBs and FBs are issued as unified bills (Treasury Discount Bills)

(note3)

(note4)

40-year bonds will be issued in May, August, November and February in FY2011 30-year bonds will be issued in April, June, July, September, October, December, January and March in FY2011

12 times

2.5

30.0

2.6

12 times

12 times

―

―

2.6 ×

0.6 ×

2.2 × 2.4 ×

2.5 ×

times 12

× 1.1

times 12

× 2.2 0.7 × 8 times

months 12

×

―

― times

Details of Auctions for Enhanced-Liquidity will be determined on a quarterly basis taking market conditions into consideration

─

▲ 0.3

0.6

times

142.8

7.2 0.6 × 12 months

―

―

―

▲ 0.9

▲ 0.3

▲ 0.3

―

(b)

1.2

13.2

28.8

4.8

26.4

4 times

8 times

―

― times

0.3 ×

―

Auctions for

1 10-year

months

0.9

7.2

time

TBs(6-month)

15-year Floating-rate 0.3 ×

FY2010(Initial) (a)

times

times

time 12 8

0.3 0.3

30.0

31.2 12

28.8

times 12 12

FY2011(Initial) (c) 1.2

4.8

26.4 13.2

5.6

26.4

0.8 0.8

28.8

―

―

―

―

×

31.2

12 times

―

― times

12

×

0.9 0.9

―

▲ 0.3

―

―

―

―

―

The issuance of the 10-year Inflation-indexed bonds in FY2011 could be resumed if the market condition allows In such case, the product designs may be reviewed such as providing principal guarantees at maturity

FY2010 (Supplementary budget/revised in December)

144.9 144.3

Total to the Market

7.2

30.0 12

× 2.4

（Unit: trillion yen）

< Main Policies in FY2011 >

○Development of Super Long-Term Bond Market

➣In order to enhance the liquidity in super-long term bonds, the total issuance amounts of 30-year and 40-year bonds are increased in response to the greater needs for long-term investments arising mainly from life insurance companies and pension funds

○Promotion of JGB Holding by Retail Investors

➣Improvement in product designs of JGBs for retail investors

・ Revisions of the rate-setting formula for 10-year floating-rate intending to prevent an excessive deterioration

of the interest rate in a low interest rate environment of the market (reference rate － 0.8% ⇒ reference rate × 0.66)

・ Unification of the conditions for redemption before maturity across the different products of JGBs for retail investors by shortening the lock-up period for the 5-year fixed-rate bonds (2 years ⇒ 1 year)

○Buy-back by Partial Liquidation of Government Debt Consolidation Fund (GDCF)

➣The total Buy-back amount from the market is approximately 3 trillion yen in FY2011 From an administrative standpoint, part of the Buy-back operation will be funded by liquidating the GDCF, which is in line with the outcome of the recent public budget screening initiative carried out on special accounts of national budget

（note1）Such Buy-back operation based on a partial liquidation of the GDCF is also carried out in FY2010, amounting up

to approximately 0.8 trillion yen

（note2）Part of the Buy-back operation in FY2011 is intended to improve ALM in Fiscal Loan Fund Special Account

- 2 -

Auction Results

（Bonds）

Auction Date Type of Security Issue

Number Maturity Date

Nominal Coupon

Amounts of Competitive Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted (billion yen)

Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price

Yield at the Average Price

Amounts of Non-Competitive Bids Tendered /Accepted (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted at the Non-price-competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted at the Non-price-competitive Auction Ⅱ (billion yen)

Auction Results

（Treasury Discount Bills）

Auction Date Type of Security Issue

Number Maturity Date

Amounts of Competitive Bids (billion yen)

Amounts of Bids Accepted (billion yen)

Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price

Yield at the Average Price

Amounts of Bids Accepted at the Non- price-competitive Auction Ⅰ (billion yen)

Auction Calendar for Jan – Mar 2011

1/ 6 (Thu) T-Bills(3-month) 1/24 (Mon) Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 2/16 (wed) 5-year 3/10 (Thu) 5-year

1/ 6 (Thu) 10-year 1/26 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month) 2/18 (Fri) Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 3/14 (Mon) T-Bills(1-year)

1/ 7 (Fri) T-Bills(6-month) 1/27 (Thu) 2-year 2/22 (Tue) 20-year 3/16 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month)

1/11 (Tue) Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 2/ 1 (Tue) 10-year 2/23(wed) T-Bills(3-month) 3/16 (Wed) 20-year

1/12 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month) 2/ 2 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month) 2/24 (Thu) 2-year 3/22 (Tue) T-Bills(Approx.2-month) 1/13 (Thu) 30-year 2/ 3 (Thu) Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 3/ 1 (Tue) 10-year 3/22 (Tue) Auction for Enhanced-liquidity

1/17 (Mon) T-Bills(1-year) 2/ 7 (Mon) T-Bills(6-month) 3/ 2 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month) 3/23 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month)

1/18 (Tue) 5-year 2/ 8 (Tue) T-Bills(3-month) 3/ 3 (Thu) Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 3/24(Thu) 2-year

1/19 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month) 2/ 8 (Tue) 40-year 3/ 7 (Mon) T-Bills(6-month)

1/20 (Thu) T-Bills(Approx.2-month) 2/14(Mon) T-Bills(1-year) 3/ 8 (Tue) 30-year

1/20 (Thu) 20-year 2/16 (wed) T-Bills(3-month) 3/ 9 (Wed) T-Bills(3-month)

Total Bidding Amount of JGBs （Calculated by Duration） Top 10

（Jul 2010 ～ Dec 2010）

1 Nomura Securities Co., Ltd 6 The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd

2 Deutsche Securities Inc 7 Barclays Capital Japan Limited

3 Mizuho Securities Co., Ltd 8 RBS Securities Japan Limited

4 Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd 9 Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd

5 Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co Ltd 10 Credit Suisse Securities Japan Limited

2 JGB PRIMARY MARKET

Note 1：The above calendar may be changed or added in light of changes in circumstances In such cases, it will be announced in advance

Note 2：Each issue amount will be announced about one week prior to each auction date

Note 3：The issue date of the Treasury Discount Bills auctioned on January 20,2011 is January 25,2011, and the maturity date is March 25,2011

Note 4：The issue date of the Treasury Discount Bills auctioned on March 22,2011 is March 25,2011, and the maturity date is May 25,2011

Issues Re-opened through the Recent Auctions for Enhanced-liquidity

Issue Numbers Auction Date Securities

Re-opened Amounts（billion yen face value）

22.5 65.5 23.9 12.5 3.9 62.0 4.5 7.0 9.9 88.1

＃86 ＃87 ＃88 ＃89 ＃93 ＃117 ＃6 ＃11 ＃12 ＃13 ＃14 ＃15 ＃16 ＃18 ＃20 ＃23 ＃24 ＃26 ＃28

13.0 1.0 4.0 28.3 1.0 7.8 23.0 1.1 0.1 2.2 22.4 20.3 3.2 34.0 1.3 8.0 0.1 4.7 20.1

＃30 ＃31 ＃32

12/3/ 2010 20-year 30-year

62.2 40.0 2.0

11/15/ 2010 10-year 20-year

40.2 53.2 30.2 26.0 13.3 4.0 2.0 37.2 30.6 31.1 31.8

＃86 ＃87 ＃88 ＃89 ＃90 ＃93 ＃94 ＃99 ＃101 ＃107 ＃116 ＃117 ＃6 ＃18 ＃23 ＃26 ＃28 ＃30 ＃31

30-year 84.7 17.1 16.7 27.5 3.8 27.7 62.0 0.1 5.0 0.2 22.3 15.1 7.3 0.2 2.0 5.0 0.9 1.0 1.1

10/25/ 2010 10-year 20-year

243.9 56.0

＃86 ＃93 ＃94 ＃116 ＃117 ＃12 ＃14 ＃17 ＃18 ＃23 ＃28 ＃30 ＃31

30-year 6.1 4.5 2.9 209.0 3.0 5.0 30.0 1.0 2.5 12.0 10.0 12.8 1.0

Note：Red shows 10-year, black shows 20-year and blue shows 30-year coupon-bearing bonds

Target Zones of the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity for the Fourth Quarter of FY 2010

Note ：JL shows 20‐year JGBs JX shows 30‐year JGBs Outstanding amount is at the end of December 2010

JGB Buy-back Results

Remaining Years to Maturity ～1yr 1yr～5yr 5yr～10yr 10yr～20yr 20yr～ Coupon

4

-0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

(billion yen)

Excluded issues Floating amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)

Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity

3 THE AUCTION FOR ENHANCED-LIQUIDITY AND JGB BUY-BACK

（billion yen）

①Remaining maturity : approx.5-～15-year

5.5

（Remaining maturities）

②Remaining maturity : approx 15-～29-year

（Remaining maturities）

0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0

Oct to Dec 2010 Jul to Sep 2010 Apr to Jun 2010 Jan to Mar 2010

（years to maturity）

276.6

69.1 53.6 81.4

2,005.2

369.9 400.5 519.6

715.2

503.0

168.0 150.1 107.1

77.8

（billion yen）

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

28 28 JL33 28 JL35 28 JL36 JL37 29 29 JL39 29 29 29 29 JL41 JL42 30 30 30 30 JL45 30 31 JL47 JL48 JL49 JL50 JL51 JL52 JL53 JL54 JL55 JL56 JL57 JL58 JL59 JL60 JL61 JL62 JL63 JL64 JL65 JL66 JL67 JL68 JL69 JL70 JL71 JL72 JL73 JL74 JL75 JL76 JL77 JL78 JL79 JL80 JL81 JL82 JL83 JL84 JL85 JL86 JL87 JL88

(billion yen)

Excluded issues Floating amount in the market (excluding amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity)

Amount issued by the Auction for Enhanced-liquidity

JGB Yield Curves

Source: Japan Bond Trading Co

Yields of JGB

Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.

Long - Term Interest Rates （10Yr）

Source: Bloomberg

Long - Short Interest Spreads （30Yr - 10Yr）

Source: Bloomberg

5

-4 JGB SECONDARY MARKET

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

(years to maturity)

（%）

2010/9/30 2010/12/30

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

（%）

40-year bond 10-year bond 30-year bond 5-year bond 20-year bond 2-year bond

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

＜2006＞

（％）

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

United Kingdom Germany United States Japan

（％）

Break-Even Inflation Rates

Source: Japan; Japan Bond Trading Co., U.S.A., U.K.; Bloomberg

Short-term Interest Rates of Treasury Discount Bills

Note: The Interest rates of FBs (13-weeks, 6-months) and TBs (6-months, 1-year) are used up till Jan, 2009

Source: Japan Bond Trading Co.

Short-term Interest Rates

Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Banker Association

JGB Over-the-Counter Trading Volume (TOKYO)

Note: In February 2009, FBs (approx 2-month, 13-weeks, 6-months) and TBs (6-months, 1-year) are integrated into the Treasury

Discount Bills

Source: Japan Securities Dealers Association

6

-0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

(trillion yen)

Treasury Discount Bills Financing Bills Treasury Bills Medium Term Bonds Long Term Bonds

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

Treasury Discount Bills (3-month) Treasury Discount Bills (6-month) Treasury Discount Bills (1-year)

（％）

2010/12/30 Recent Indicative Price

Treasury Discount Bills (3-month) 0.125% Treasury Discount Bills (6-month) 0.130% Treasury Discount Bills (1-year) 0.140%

＜2009＞

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

10-yr BEI (U.S.A.)

（％）

-0.05

0.05

0.15

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

(％)

Call Rate (Uncollateralized Overnight) TIBOR 3-months (Euro-Yen) Basic Loan Rate

General Bonds Issuance Amount and Outstanding

Note 1: Issuance Amount: revenue basis, FY1999-2009: actual, FY2010: supplementary budget, FY2011: initial budget

Note 2: Outstanding: nominal basis, FY1999-2009: actual, FY2010-FY2011: estimates

Source: Ministry of Finance

Time-to-maturity Structure of Outstanding JGB （September 2010）

Source: Ministry of Finance

Outstanding STRIPS Breakdown by JGB Holders （September 2010）

Note: Outstanding STRIPS means outstanding amount of principal of Note: From preliminary figures of the end of December 2007, Banks, etc

strippable JGBs held in stripped form include Japan Post Bank, life and nonlife insurance include Japan Post Insurance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Bank of Japan

- 7 -

5 JGB OUTSTANDING

Source: Bank of Japan

0.63 1.23 0.66 4.60 2.82 3.19 2.29 1.84 1.77

5.56 7.08

49.97

8.93 7.39

51.26

64.80

32.61

19.46

10.4512.97 29.26

97.39

32.37

6.87

57.36

31.00

6.42 8.83 9.35 39.29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 47 48 49 (FY)

(trillion yen）

Treasury Bills 2-yr bonds JGBs for retail investors (3-yr-Fixed-rate) JGBs for retail investors (5-yr-Fixed-rate) 5-yr bonds

Inflation-Indexed bonds JGBs for retail investors (Floating-rate) 10-yr bonds

15-year-floating-rate bonds 20-yr bonds

30-yr bonds 40-yr bonds

Average remaining years to maturity： 6 years and 7months

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

（billion yen）

16.7

19.6 19.9

23.5 25.7 26.4

41.4 39.7 34.6 31.4 36.7 32.6 30.429.531.3 30.2

34.9 34.5 37.3 40.2 37.1 41.1 47.9 47.4 48.0 52.9

45.0 44.0

3.0%

3.5% 3.4%

3.9% 4.1% 4.1%

4.6%

4.5%4.7%4.5%

5.3%

5.1%

5.5%

6.0%

5.6%

6.1%

7.0%

6.8%7.0%

5.8%

4.6% 4.6%

5.0%

5.1%

7.8%

6.5% 6.4%

6.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

60.0

(trillion yen)

331.7 367.6

421.1 457.0

499.0 526.9 531.7

667.6

392.4

594.0 545.9

541.5

642.3

155.6 127.1

124.6 135.6

136.8 119.9

110.3 104.6

89.3 86.3

77.6

142.4 146.7

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 (FY)

(trillion yen)

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 (trillion yen) Outstanding (right-hand scale)

Issuance Amount (left-hand scale)

Households, 4.7%

Foreigners, 5.0%

Pension Funds, 3.8%

Public Pensions, 10.7%

Life and Nonlife Insurance, etc, 20.1%

BOJ, 7.9%

General Government, etc (ex Public Pensions), 0.5%

Banks, etc, 44.4% Others, 2.9%

(Note1) Outstanding “JGBs for retail investors” at Dec 2010 is calculated to 〔aggregate issues

of \33.6 trillion〕-〔redemption before maturity of \6.3trillion〕.

(Note2) Figures in parenthesis indicator are issue numbers.

(Source) Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan “Flow of Funds”

3.3 4.8 6.5 8.4 10.1 12.4 14.0 15.3 17.1 20.7 22.0 23.2 24.1 25.8 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.2

12.7 12.5 12.413.4 14.6 15.9 18.0 20.1 21.8 24.525.7 26.928.0 29.1 31.432.3 33.4 33.6 35.436.0 36.335.3 35.8

36.7 36.0 35.6 35.535.0 34.4 34.4

2.0

18.7

0.4 0.7 1.0

4.7% 4.8%

5.0%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

5.2%

5.2%

5.3%

4.8%

3.4%

3.2%

4.0%

3.7%

3.9%

2.4%

2.3%

2.4%

4.2%

4.7%

4.4%

2.3%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

5.3%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Mar - 03 (#1) Mar - 04 (#5) Mar - 05 (#9) Mar - 06 (#13) Mar - 07 (#17) Mar - 08 (#21) Mar - 09 (#25) Mar - 10 (#29)

(trillion yen)

-0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5%

5.5%

Total JGBs held by retail investors (left) Outstanding "JGBs for retail investors" (left) Ratio of JGBs held by retail investors （right）

Dec - 10

34.1

Economic Indicators

FY2010

Index of Industrial Production (2005 av.=100) 4.6 2.7 -12.7 -8.9 1.5 -1.8

Note: Percent changes from previous period (quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted) The figures in（ ）indicate the contribution to change in GDP

Source: Cabinet Office; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Prices by Non-Residents

Source: Cabinet Office, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Source: Ministry of Finance

Bank of Japan

General Government Financial Balances （SNA Basis） General Government Gross Debts （SNA Basis）

Note: For Japan and the U.S.A., where pension systems are based on a Source: OECD “Economic Outlook No 88”

Modified Funded System, the figures exclude social security funds,

which are regarded as future liabilities in real terms

Source: OECD “Economic Outlook No 88”

Debt Management Policy Division, Financial Bureau, Ministry of Finance

3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8940 Japan

Phone: 81-3-3581-4111 Web: www.mof.go.jp

- 8 -

6 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TREND

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-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

（％）

CGPI(Corporate Goods Price Index)

CPI (Nationwide, excluding fresh food, including energy prices)

GDP Deflator

Change from the previous year

＜2006＞

0.9%

-0.5%

-0.5%

＜2007＞ ＜2008＞ ＜2009＞ ＜2010＞ -7

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (trillion yen)

Money Market Instrument Bonds and Notes ＜2006＞ ＜2007＞ ＜2008＞ ＜2009＞ ＜2010＞

30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210

Germany France Italy Canada

（CY）

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Canada

（％）

（ＣＹ）

（As a percentage of GDP）