The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?... Table 3Average central bank loss and gains in the baseline scenario.. Figure 1$YHUDJHFHQWUDO
Trang 1The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing
Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?
Trang 2HPDLODNRW#VJKZDZSO
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Trang 3List of tables and figures 4
Abstract 5
1 Introduction 6
2 The Model 9
3 Expectations 11
4 Simulations and results 14
6LPXODWLRQV 4
5HVXOWV 4
5 Conclusions 17
References 18
Appendix 1 21
Appendix 2 23
Trang 4Table 1,QIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHDSSOLHGLQWKHPRGHO
Table 2%DVHOLQHVFHQDULRSDUDPHWUL]DWLRQ
Table 3Average central bank loss and gains in the baseline scenario
Table 47D\ORUUXOHFRHIILFLHQWVLQWKHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULR
Figure 1$YHUDJHFHQWUDOEDQNORVVIRUGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRIhbea under various monetary policy rules
Figure 2$YHUDJHFHQWUDOEDQNORVVIRUGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRIe under various monetary policy rules
Figure 3$YHUDJHFHQWUDOEDQNORVVIRUGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRISZ ^ under various monetary policy rules
Trang 6
1 Introduction
The last two decades have witnessed a substantial increase in transparency about DFWLRQVRIPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHV&HQWUDOEDQNHUVZLGHO\VKDUHWKHYLHZWKDWWKHLUPDLQLPSDFWRQWKHHFRQRP\LVQRWYLDVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWHVWKH\FRQWUROEXWYLDH[SHFWDWLRQVRIIXWXUHSROLF\DFWLRQV,WLVIDLUO\HDV\WRVKRZZLWKLQVWDQGDUGPLFURIRXQGHGPRGHOVXVHGIRUPRQHWDU\SROLF\DQDO\VLVHJ:RRGIRUGWKDWZKDWPDWWHUVIRUHFRQRPLFDJHQWVZKHQWKH\PDNHGHFLVLRQVDERXWFXUUHQWSULFHVLQYHVWPHQWDQGFRQVXPSWLRQLVWKHZKROHSDWKRIIXWXUHH[SHFWHGLQWHUHVWUDWHV7DNLQJWKLVLQWRDFFRXQWFHQWUDOEDQNHUVKDYHPDGHDJUHDWHIIRUWWRDWOHDVWLQGLUHFWO\JXLGHWKHVHH[SHFWDWLRQV$OOLQIODWLRQWDUJHWHUV,7VHWSXEOLFO\DQXPHULFDOWDUJHWIRULQIODWLRQ0RVWSXEOLVKUHSRUWVZKHUHWKH\H[SODLQWKHLUPRQHWDU\SROLFLHV6HYHUDOFHQWUDOEDQNVGHFLGHGWRSXEOLVKPLQXWHVIURPPHHWLQJVRIWKHLUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJERGLHV/DVWEXWQRWOHDVWDYDVWPDMRULW\GHFLGHGWRVKRZWKHLULQIODWLRQDQG*'3SURMHFWLRQV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGKRZHYHURQO\DOLPLWHGQXPEHURIFHQWUDOEDQNVGHFLGHGWRGRļZKDWRQWKHILUVWYLHZVHHPVWKHPRVWHIILFLHQWZD\RIJXLGLQJH[SHFWDWLRQVRQIXWXUHLQWHUHVWUDWHVļ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ļKLJKLQIODWLRQSURMHFWHGXQGHUDFRQVWDQWLQWHUHVWUDWHDVVXPSWLRQFRXOGIXHOLQIODWLRQH[SHFWDWLRQVLQVWHDGRIVKRZLQJWKDWPRQHWDU\SROLF\ZRXOGEHWLJKWHQHGLQRUGHUWREULQJLQIODWLRQEDFNWRWDUJHW2QWKHRWKHUKDQGFHQWUDOEDQNHUVijLQWXLWLRQDVZHOODVIRUPDOPRGHOVVXJJHVWHGWKDWSXEOLVKLQJSURMHFWLRQVDQGVKRZLQJWKHPRGHORIWKHHFRQRP\FRXOGLPSURYHPDFURHFRQRPLFRXWFRPHV7DNLQJWKHVHDUJXPHQWVDQGSRVVLEO\RWKHUOLNHSHHUSUHVVXUHHJ)UDFDVVRHWDO LQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQPRVWLQIODWLRQWDUJHWLQJFHQWUDOEDQNVGHFLGHGWRIROORZWKHSDWKSDYHGE\WKH%DQNRI(QJODQGLQDQGVWDUWHGWRSXEOLVKWKHLUPDFURHFRQRPLFSURMHFWLRQVLQWKHIRUPRIIDQFKDUWV
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Trang 8New Keynesian model with learning to show that publishing the interest rate path lowers the YDULDELOLW\RIRXWSXWDQGLQIODWLRQ*RVVHOLQHWDOXVHDPRGHOZLWKKHWHURJHQHURXVLQIRUPDWLRQWRVKRZWKDWWKHSXEOLFDWLRQRIDQLQWHUHVWUDWHSDWKPD\LQFUHDVHRUUHGXFHZHOIDUHGHSHQGLQJRQWKHUHODWLYHTXDOLW\RIVLJQDOVUHFHLYHGE\WKHFHQWUDOEDQNDQGWKHSXEOLF7KHJDLQVLQFUHDVHZLWKWKHGLIILFXOW\WRLQIHUWKHREMHFWLYHVRIPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHV7RRXUNQRZOHGJHQRVWXG\DWWHPSWHGWRFRPSDUHWKHJDLQVIURPSXEOLVKLQJPDFURHFRQRPLFSURMHFWLRQVDQGWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHSDWK2XUSDSHUWULHVWRILOOWKLVJDS
On technical grounds our paper is directly linked to an increasing literature on learning4DQGLWVDGDSWDWLRQWRPRQHWDU\SROLF\/HDUQLQJLVDQDWXUDOIUDPHZRUNIRUDQDO\VLQJWKHJDLQVIURPLQFUHDVHGFHQWUDOEDQNWUDQVSDUHQF\8QGHUUDWLRQDOH[SHFWDWLRQVDJHQWVNQRZWKHHFRQRPLFPRGHODQGKHQFHWKHUHLVQRURRPIRUWKHFHQWUDOEDQNWRLPSURYHWKHLUIRUHFDVWVE\UHYHDOLQJSURMHFWLRQV+RZHYHULIRQHDVVXPHVWKDWDJHQWijVNQRZOHGJHRIWKHHFRQRPLFPRGHOLVLPSHUIHFWFHQWUDOEDQNVDVVXPHGWRNQRZWKHPRGHOSHUIHFWO\FDQVKDUHWKHLUNQRZOHGJHKHQFHLPSURYHSULYDWHIRUHFDVWVDQGWKHRYHUDOOPDFURHFRQRPLFRXWFRPH2QWKHRWKHUKDQGLIDFHQWUDOEDQNVFKRRVHVQRWWRGLVFORVHLWVLQIRUPDWLRQDJHQWVFDQEHDVVXPHGWRIROORZDOHDUQLQJSURFHVVLHXVHSDVWGDWDWRHVWLPDWHWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHXQGHUO\LQJPRGHO
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Trang 92 The Model
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4.1 Simulations
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the baseline scenario it is assumed that the learning sample smplVWUHWFKHVRYHUSHULRGV
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4.2 Results
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