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The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable? pptx

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The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?... Table 3Average central bank loss and gains in the baseline scenario.. Figure 1$YHUDJHFHQWUDO

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The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing

Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?

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List of tables and figures 4

Abstract 5

1 Introduction 6

2 The Model 9

3 Expectations 11

4 Simulations and results 14

6LPXODWLRQV 4

5HVXOWV 4

5 Conclusions 17

References 18

Appendix 1 21

Appendix 2 23

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Table 1,QIRUPDWLRQVWUXFWXUHDSSOLHGLQWKHPRGHO 

Table 2%DVHOLQHVFHQDULRSDUDPHWUL]DWLRQ 

Table 3Average central bank loss and gains in the baseline scenario 

Table 47D\ORUUXOHFRHIILFLHQWVLQWKHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULR 

Figure 1$YHUDJHFHQWUDOEDQNORVVIRUGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRIhbea under various monetary policy rules 

Figure 2$YHUDJHFHQWUDOEDQNORVVIRUGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRIe under various monetary policy rules 

Figure 3$YHUDJHFHQWUDOEDQNORVVIRUGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVRISZ ^ under various monetary policy rules 



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1 Introduction

The last two decades have witnessed a substantial increase in transparency about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ļZKDWRQWKHILUVWYLHZVHHPVWKHPRVWHIILFLHQWZD\RIJXLGLQJH[SHFWDWLRQVRQIXWXUHLQWHUHVWUDWHVļ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ļKLJKLQIODWLRQSURMHFWHGXQGHUDFRQVWDQWLQWHUHVWUDWHDVVXPSWLRQFRXOGIXHOLQIODWLRQH[SHFWDWLRQVLQVWHDGRIVKRZLQJWKDWPRQHWDU\SROLF\ZRXOGEHWLJKWHQHGLQRUGHUWREULQJLQIODWLRQEDFNWRWDUJHW2QWKHRWKHUKDQGFHQWUDOEDQNHUVijLQWXLWLRQDVZHOODVIRUPDOPRGHOVVXJJHVWHGWKDWSXEOLVKLQJSURMHFWLRQVDQGVKRZLQJWKHPRGHORIWKHHFRQRP\FRXOGLPSURYHPDFURHFRQRPLFRXWFRPHV7DNLQJWKHVHDUJXPHQWV DQGSRVVLEO\RWKHUOLNHSHHUSUHVVXUH HJ)UDFDVVRHWDO LQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQPRVWLQIODWLRQWDUJHWLQJFHQWUDOEDQNVGHFLGHGWRIROORZWKHSDWKSDYHGE\WKH%DQNRI(QJODQGLQDQGVWDUWHGWRSXEOLVKWKHLUPDFURHFRQRPLFSURMHFWLRQVLQWKHIRUPRIIDQFKDUWV

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New Keynesian model with learning to show that publishing the interest rate path lowers the YDULDELOLW\RIRXWSXWDQGLQIODWLRQ*RVVHOLQHWDO  XVHDPRGHOZLWKKHWHURJHQHURXVLQIRUPDWLRQWRVKRZWKDWWKHSXEOLFDWLRQRIDQLQWHUHVWUDWHSDWKPD\LQFUHDVHRUUHGXFHZHOIDUHGHSHQGLQJRQWKHUHODWLYHTXDOLW\RIVLJQDOVUHFHLYHGE\WKHFHQWUDOEDQNDQGWKHSXEOLF7KHJDLQVLQFUHDVHZLWKWKHGLIILFXOW\WRLQIHUWKHREMHFWLYHVRIPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHV7RRXUNQRZOHGJHQRVWXG\DWWHPSWHGWRFRPSDUHWKHJDLQVIURPSXEOLVKLQJPDFURHFRQRPLFSURMHFWLRQVDQGWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHSDWK2XUSDSHUWULHVWRILOOWKLVJDS

On technical grounds our paper is directly linked to an increasing literature on learning4DQGLWVDGDSWDWLRQWRPRQHWDU\SROLF\/HDUQLQJLVDQDWXUDOIUDPHZRUNIRUDQDO\VLQJWKHJDLQVIURPLQFUHDVHGFHQWUDOEDQNWUDQVSDUHQF\8QGHUUDWLRQDOH[SHFWDWLRQVDJHQWVNQRZWKHHFRQRPLFPRGHODQGKHQFHWKHUHLVQRURRPIRUWKHFHQWUDOEDQNWRLPSURYHWKHLUIRUHFDVWVE\UHYHDOLQJSURMHFWLRQV+RZHYHULIRQHDVVXPHVWKDWDJHQWijVNQRZOHGJHRIWKHHFRQRPLFPRGHOLVLPSHUIHFWFHQWUDOEDQNV DVVXPHGWRNQRZWKHPRGHOSHUIHFWO\ FDQVKDUHWKHLUNQRZOHGJHKHQFHLPSURYHSULYDWHIRUHFDVWVDQGWKHRYHUDOOPDFURHFRQRPLFRXWFRPH2QWKHRWKHUKDQGLIDFHQWUDOEDQNVFKRRVHVQRWWRGLVFORVHLWVLQIRUPDWLRQDJHQWVFDQEHDVVXPHGWRIROORZDOHDUQLQJSURFHVVLHXVHSDVWGDWDWRHVWLPDWHWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIWKHXQGHUO\LQJPRGHO

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2 The Model

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IS equation Philips curve policy rule

IS equation Philips curve policy rule

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4 6LPXODWLRQVDQGUHVXOWV

4.1 Simulations

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4.2 Results

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New Keynesian model with learning to show that publishing the interest rate path lowers the YDULDELOLW\RIRXWSXWDQGLQIODWLRQ*RVVHOLQHWDO  XVHDPRGHOZLWKKHWHURJHQHURXVLQIRUPDWLRQWRVKRZWKDWWKHSXEOLFDWLRQRIDQLQWHUHVWUDWHSDWKPD\LQFUHDVHRUUHGXFHZHOIDUHGHSHQGLQJRQWKHUHODWLYHTXDOLW\RIVLJQDOVUHFHLYHGE\WKHFHQWUDOEDQNDQGWKHSXEOLF7KHJDLQVLQFUHDVHZLWKWKHGLIILFXOW\WRLQIHUWKHREMHFWLYHVRIPRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHV7RRXUNQRZOHGJHQRVWXG\DWWHPSWHGWRFRPSDUHWKHJDLQVIURPSXEOLVKLQJPDFURHFRQRPLFSURMHFWLRQVDQGWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHSDWK2XUSDSHUWULHVWRILOOWKLVJDS... ľ6WDQGDUGSDUDPHWHUVDVVXJJHVWHGE\7D\ORU  FRUUHFWHGIRUWKHIDFWWKDWLQVWHDGRI the output gap we use the unemployment gap Taking into account that the variability RIXQHPSOR\PHQWLVDERXWRIWKHYDULDELOLW\RIRXWSXWRXU7D\ORUUXOHEHFRPHV...

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Ngày đăng: 06/03/2014, 02:21

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