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Introduction 1 Political Context 4 Economic Context 10 Economic activity and development 10 Trade and investment patterns in SADC 11 Labour trends and unemployment patterns 15 Public sec

Confronting the Region:

A Profile of Southern Africa

Sanusha Naidu and Benjamin Roberts

Integrated Rural and Regional Development Research Programme, Occasional Paper 8 Series Editor: Mike de Klerk, Executive Director: Integrated Rural and Regional Development Research Programme, Human Sciences Research Council

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The Integrated Rural and Regional Development ResearchProgramme of the Human Sciences Research Councilpublishes an Occasional Paper series which is designed tooffer timely contributions to debates, disseminate researchfindings and otherwise engage with the broader researchcommunity Authors invite comments and responses fromreaders

About the Authors

Sanusha Naidu is a research specialist in the Integrated Ruraland Regional Development Research Programme and theSouthern African Regional Network (SARPN) After completing

a BA law degree and an Honours degree in political science atthe University of Durban-Westville, she obtained an MA inInternational Relations from Staffordshire University, England Prior to joining the HSRC, Sanusha was Senior Africaresearcher at the South African Institute of InternationalAffairs She has published in the areas of African politicaleconomy and democratisation At present she is co-leading aproject that tracks South African corporate expansion intoAfrica She can be contacted at snaidu@hsrc.ac.za

Rural and Regional Development Research Programme andthe Southern African Regional Poverty Network (SARPN) Hehas a BSc degree in town and regional planning (cum laude)from the University of the Witwatersrand and an MSc degree

in urban and regional planning (development)(cum laude)from the University of Natal Prior to joining the HSRC, he wasresearch fellow in the Population and Poverty StudiesProgramme at the School of Development Studies at theUniversity of Natal

Benjamin has extensive experience in the micro-econometricanalysis of household surveys His journal publications dealmainly with issues of poverty measurement, especially from alongitudinal perspective He can be contacted at broberts@hsrc.ac.za

Introduction 1

Political Context 4

Economic Context 10

Economic activity and development 10

Trade and investment patterns in SADC 11

Labour trends and unemployment patterns 15

Public sector expenditure 17

Trends in human development 19

Challenges to Social Development 28

Regional Integration in Southern Africa 39

Progress toward regional integration 43

Challenges to regional integration in southern Africa 46

Nations

SAIIA South African Institute of International Affairs

Southern Africa

Desertification

Confronting the Region:

A Profile of Southern Africa

Introduction

The southern African region is made up of all countries south

of and including Tanzania and the Democratic Republic ofCongo (DRC) It is a plateau region edged by many escarp-ments, cliffs or steep slopes The region comprises 14 countriesand spans a geographical area the size of the continentalUnited States.1It has a population of approximately 200 millionpeople, with most of the inhabitants concentrated in theregion’s cities and large urban centres The rural dwellersremain dispersed

Climatic conditions vary in the region, and topographicalfeatures range from savanna grasslands to deserts The easternparts of the region have more moisture owing to the influence

of currents in the Indian Ocean While Mozambique on theeast coast experiences an average annual rainfall of between

30 and 56 inches, countries such as Namibia in the west havearid conditions with an average annual rainfall of betweenfour and 12 inches Such conditions make the regionvulnerable to erratic climatic patterns of droughts and floods

In recent years, the region has witnessed increased political,economic and social engagements After several decades ofpolitical and military confrontation and unrest, accompanied

by economic decline and social instability, the region is nowexperiencing a degree of political stability with increasedprospects of economic recovery The cessation of hostilities inAngola, the signing of a peace agreement in the DRC and thepeaceful elections in Lesotho in 2002 herald possibilities forgreater integration and cooperation in the region From aneconomic perspective, and despite the imbalances amongststates and the relatively small market size, the region has anaggregate gross domestic product (GDP) of US$226,1 billion.This is more than double that of the Economic Community ofWest African States (ECOWAS), and equivalent to more thanhalf the aggregate GDP of sub-Saharan Africa The latter bodes

Figure 1: The SADC region

well for the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA), whichshould be formalised by 2008.

Yet, in spite of the progress made on the ground, the region

is not without its challenges While countries in the region mayshare a common vision of rapid economic and politicalprogress, and a commitment to a common development path,the region is beset with crises that undermine sustainabledevelopment and overall efforts towards regional integration.Politically, the peace dividends obtained, especially in the DRCand Angola, have been offset by the ongoing political andeconomic crises in Zimbabwe, and by the lack of basic politicaland democratic freedom in Swaziland More importantly,democracy in the region is still too young and fragile for manycountries to claim sufficient experience in democratic consoli-dation Economically and socially, the region is still far fromovercoming the imploding humanitarian disaster of HIV/AIDS.The HIV/AIDS pandemic, together with other health problemssuch as tuberculosis, malaria and cholera, has placed countries

at risk of increased mortality rates, a skewed demographicprofile, a growing number of orphaned and vulnerable children,and the internal displacement of people The latter problem hasbeen compounded by a food security crisis In effect, theregion’s poverty seems to be deepening as a result of wideninginequality; weak political, social and economic governancestructures; and a burgeoning crisis in health

Despite these composite problems, countries in the regionare moving towards consolidating regional integration andcooperation under the Regional Indicative Strategic Develop-ment Plan (RISDP) Approved in 2003, the RISDP is designed toprovide Southern African Development Community (SADC)member states, their institutions and policy makers with acoherent and comprehensive development agenda (based onstrategic priorities) for social, political and economic policiesover the next 15 years However, implementation of the RISDPwill not be without its challenges Regional identity will remain

a core problem While SADC member states have committed

themselves to the task of regional cooperation, regional identityamongst them is still remote Attachment to national identityand sovereignty dominates the focus of the summit agendas,and the reluctance to hold errant and despotic leadersaccountable is evidently based on a sense of fraternity How-ever, it may be that this reluctance is actually part of a policy ofconstructive engagement or quiet diplomacy On the ground,indications are that SADC is still far from being consolidated as

a regional bloc with a common agenda Moreover, it is beinghamstrung by the majority of the states’ overlapping member-ships of other regional integration networks such as theCommon Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)and the East African Community (EAC)

The region thus represents a matrix of competing interestsand contending difficulties Nonetheless, it is one of the morerobust regions on the continent, with increased movementtoward a free trade area and democratic practice Many donorsand nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) alike estimatethat southern Africa’s reasonably well-developed infrastructureand diverse natural resource base have the potential to leadthe rest of Africa towards a more prosperous 21st century.The core focus of this profile is to provide an understanding

of the main developmental and institutional challenges thatconfront the region by:

• Analysing its political, economic and social contexts, andidentifying common trends;

• Reviewing progress made in the promotion of greaterregional integration; and

• Investigating the extent to which member states adopt aregional identity

Political Context

The political situation in the region is characterised by adiversity of political systems and varying levels of politicalstability These systems range from a traditional and increas-

ingly authoritarian monarchy to constitutional democracies.There are also no-party and one-party dictatorships, anddemocratic systems with more widespread participation bycivil society and media independence Democracies of theregion are young and fragile, with many countries locatedbetween a stage of democratic nation building and institu-tional reform but prone to occasional constitutional setbacksand clampdowns on freedom of speech (Southall 2003)

As Table 1 suggests, the past few years have produced somemovement towards the building of democracy in most of theregion This is reflected in developments such as the holding

of free and fair elections in a number of countries, the generalacceptance of election results between political parties,notably in Lesotho, and increased respect for nationalconstitutions so that heads of state are prevented fromentrenching themselves in power However, several factorsmilitate against these developments, notably:

• The deteriorating political and economic conditions inZimbabwe, affecting, in particular, Botswana and SouthAfrica;

• The increased centralisation of executive power inNamibia;

• The mounting levels of repression in Swaziland and theincreasingly lawless nature of the rule by monarchy;

• The ongoing regionalisation of the DRC conflict, which isproducing destabilisation and internecine conflict in thesub-continent

Alongside these concerns is the issue of human security or thecreation of an environment necessary for the furtherance ofhuman development Food security2, for example, is funda-mental to the development and maintenance of humansecurity Acute food shortages in many parts of the region, aswell as fairly large-scale levels of internal migration, areplacing a strain on the region’s natural resource base This iscompounded by periodic climate shocks in the form ofdrought and flooding In several countries of the region, food

shortages have led to hunger and poverty, and a burgeoninginformal market These problems already play a major part inregional relationships and they will intensify as the AIDS crisisworsens

A further significant and persistent threat to regional security

is the abundance of cheap and easily accessible small armsand semi-automatic weaponry In large part, this is the legacy

of decades of civil war in the region In Mozambique, forexample, up to six million arms were imported during the civilwar After the 1992 peace accord, a UN peacekeeping missioncollected some 190 000 weapons, but most of these foundtheir way back onto the streets or were ‘exported’ toneighbouring states A similar situation is likely to unfold inAngola and the DRC during the arms demobilisation phase.These concerns have brought to the fore worries about thelevel of political democracy in the region With many countries

in the region only now beginning to adopt democratic practice

as a yardstick of good governance, southern Africa has a longway to go before democratic consolidation can be attained.But the signs are encouraging Political elites increasinglyrecognise the link between development and democracy, andseem more committed than ever to address conflicts, endhostilities and abide by the rules of democratic practice.Another positive development is the attempt to addresscorrupt practices in the region In spite of a number ofcountries in the region being poorly ranked in terms ofTransparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index,the adoption of an anticorruption protocol by the heads ofstate and governments of the Southern African DevelopmentCommunity (SADC) in August 2001 represents a progressivecommitment to redressing the situation The protocol, adopted

at the Malawi summit, focuses on a range of preventivemeasures, which include codes of conduct, access toinformation and protection for informants Moreover, itrequires governments to criminalise the bribery of foreign civilservants, thereby making corruption an extraditable offence(Lodge 2003)

Table 1: A general survey of the state of democracy in the region

2 Internaldisplacees andreturningrefugees

3 High levels ofcorruption

4 Weak civil societystructures

5 Controlledmedia

1 HIV/AIDS levels

2 Refugee inflowfrom Zimbabwe

1 Ethnic cleansingand factionfighting

2 Weak politicalinstitutions

3 Lack of mediaindependence

4 No civil societystructures

1 Excessivedependence onexports to the USmarket (AGOA)

1994 peace accord shattered.

Renewed political and civil strife.

Death in 2002 of Unita leader, Jonas Savimbi, produced a ceasefire agreement and a rapprochement between UNITA and MPLA.

Single-party dominance by Botswana Democratic Party since independence in 1967 reflects both its (Botswana Democratic Party (BDP)) good governance record and the ethnic dominance

of the Bamangwato people.

Peace agreement in 2003 facilitating democratisation process Prospects of stability and peace fragile as a result of continued hostilities and armed resistance to the peace process between government forces, various factions and rebel groups.

Legitimate election held in 2002 following disputed 1998 election, which generated an attempted coup d’état Vigorous attempts presently being made to combat corruption and consolidate nation building.

1 Levels of povertyexacerbated bysevere droughtand famine.

1 High levels ofcorruption

2 TensionsbetweenRenamo-controlledprovinces andcentral govern-ment overdelegation ofpowers

3 Independence ofpolitical andinstitutionalstructures such

as the judiciarycompromised byinfluence fromFrelimo

4 Asymmetricallevels ofdevelopmentbetween regions

Signs of political maturity with sustained opposition forcing President Maluzi to abandon attempt to change constitution

to enable him to stand for a third term in 2004 election.

General peace agreement reached in 1992 Multiparty elections in 1994 and 1999 but Renamo claimed it was denied victory in 1999 poll President Chissano has announced he will not seek a third term in 2004.

1 Weak oppositionand single-partydomination withtendency tocentralisation.

2 Extreme levels ofsocioeconomicinequality

1 Extreme levels ofpoverty

2 Collapse ofindependentjudiciary

3 Curbs on mediaexpression

1 Separatistmovement inisland ofZanzibar

1 High levels ofpoverty andunemployment

2 Weak economyand excessivedependency onglobal terms oftrade

Formal independence since 1990.

Increasing centralisation of power

in presidency Nujoma has changed constitution once to stand for third term Conflict over the Caprivi strip, bordering Botswana, threatens to spill over into the region.

Democracy since 1994.

Entrenchment of democratic procedures Stable.

Least democratic state in region.

Ruled by authoritarian monarchy with increasingly despotic tendencies.

Mature, functioning democracy.

Successful election in 2000.

Stable multiparty system.

Attempt by President Chiluba to change constitution to enable him to seek third term resisted.

2002 election resulted in stable transition Attempts to address corruption.

Economic Context

small size of the southern African market, the SADC’s grossdomestic product of US$226.1 billion in 2001 is more thandouble that of the Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS) and more than half of sub-Saharan Africa’saggregate GDP Even so, the regional economy continues toreflect a strong dependence on the primary sectors ofproduction, specifically the exporting of agricultural andmining commodities These account for on average more thanhalf of the GDP (Kritzinger-van Niekerk & Pinto Moreira 2002).With uneven levels of socioeconomic development and theexigency of addressing the pervasive poverty afflicting theregion, many member states embarked upon IMF/World Bank-directed stabilisation and adjustment programmes in the early1990s The aim of these programmes was to promote macro-economic stability and higher growth alongside improvedsocial service provision (SADC FANR 2003)

While most SADC countries recorded high-growthperformance during the 1970s, economic growth in the regionslowed down in the 1980s, partly because of deterioratingterms of trade and policy failures As Table 3 illustrates, adegree of recovery occurred in the 1990s, albeit unevenly

Table 1 cont.

starvation

2 High levels ofviolent repres-sion, especially

in rural areasand oppositionstrongholds

Collapse of democracy and rule

of law Steady degeneration to fascism Independence of judiciary destroyed Dissident media crushed.

Source: EISA (http://www.eisa.org.za) and World Bank (http://www.worldbank.org/afr)

Some of the factors underpinning the recovery were anincrease in foreign direct investment, particularly in Angola,South Africa, Mozambique and Botswana; positive politicaldevelopments; and the introduction of macroeconomicreforms These have generally served to improve tax collec-tion, liberalise exchange controls, bring inflation under controland reduce budget deficits However, in spite of this progress,Angola, the DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambiaremain severely indebted, while Zimbabwe is consideredmoderately indebted This debt burden has made many SADCstates dependent on official development assistance (ODA) tomaintain prudent macroeconomic policies while simultaneous-

ly attempting to meet commitments to poverty reductionthrough public expenditure

liberalisation, most economies within the SADC region areeither moderately or fully open, with foreign trade playing a

Note: In terms of the score values, 10 is ’ highly clean’ and 0 is ‘highly corrupt’ As for rank,

102 countries were surveyed, where 1 = least corrupt and 102 = most corrupt.The symbol,

‘ ’ indicates that no data is available for that country.

salient role for many Though trade within SADC hasintensified since the early 1990s, intraregional trade generallyremains low The share of intraregional imports amounted to

12 per cent of total imports in 1999, while intraregionalexports comprised less than nine per cent of total exports.Trade appears to be a more significant contributor to GDP

in the smaller regional economies (e.g Lesotho andSwaziland) than in the larger ones South Africa predominates

in intraregional trade and accounts for more than 70 per cent

of the imports of other countries in the region Irrespective ofthe low levels of intraregional trade, trade flows increasednoticeably during the past decade, with the share ofintraregional exports relative to total exports more thandoubling between 1990-1999, as shown in Figure 2 (Kritzinger-van Niekerk & Pinto Moreira 2002; SADC FANR2003)

Average annual real growth rate (%)

Approximately 80 per cent of to Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) to developing countries is directed to East Asian andLatin American regions, a share that remained fairly constantduring the 1990s By contrast, sub-Saharan Africa has tended

to be marginalised, receiving a mere three to five per cent oftotal developing country FDI over the period For SADCcountries, the estimated share of total FDI fluctuated betweentwo to three per cent between 1995 and 1999 The experience

of SADC countries in attracting long-term capital flows hasbeen varied Although, in US dollar terms, the FDI received bySADC countries is generally small, the small size of many ofthese economies means that, in actuality, these inflows as apercentage of GDP have been high relative to other develop-ing economies These inflows are often explained by arelatively small number of large transactions and tend to occur

in countries where there are unexploited natural resources

As Table 4 shows, direct investment inflows into the SADCregion were in the latter 1990s directed at Angola and SouthAfrica In Angola, FDI was mainly into the oil and natural gas

Figure 2: Intra-SADC trade (% of total exports)

Source: AISA and HSRC (2003)

sectors, whereas South Africa attracted foreign investmentacross a broad number of sectors South Africa is the dominantinvestment destination in the region as it offers a considerablylarger market than neighbouring countries (accounting formore than 70 per cent of SADC’s total GDP) and a moredeveloped business infrastructure It is, however, important tonote that despite the relative regional significance, these FDIinflows into South Africa constitute a minute share of thecountry’s GDP (rarely exceeding one per cent).

Source: AISA and HSRC (2003)

Table 4: Foreign direct investment: net inflows, in US$ millions (nominal)

The relatively high levels of investment in Mozambique andLesotho in the late 1990s were partially the result of mega-infrastructure projects such as the Mozal aluminum smelterand Maputo Corridor in Mozambique, and the LesothoHighlands water project Economic reform and the privati-sation of state-owned enterprises has been another importantsource of FDI in SADC, although this has been politically andadministratively difficult for most countries to implement.Inflows of direct investment through this means have occurred

in Mozambique, Zambia, Tanzania, South Africa and Lesotho.For a country such as Botswana, which has not had a large-scale privatisation programme and few mega-infrastructureprojects over the past decade, FDI has tended to be relativelylow Similarly, countries beset with political uncertainty andeconomic instability, such as Zimbabwe, are unlikely to attractsubstantial new inflows of foreign capital in the near future(Jenkins & Thomas 2002).

empirical evidence, the rate of formal sector wage ment within the region is low and below the average rate ofgrowth of the labour force This jobless growth has beenascribed to factors such as the low absorptive capacity ofenergy, transport, communications and certain industrialactivities, and declining employment in the South African coaland gold mines (SADC FANR 2000) This slow growth of

employ-Source: Pillay (2002)

Note: The symbol ‘ ’ indicates that no data is available for that country.

formal sector employment has meant that new labour marketentrants have had to be absorbed into agriculture or informalsector activities Table 5 shows the distribution of the labourforce by sector for each of the SADC member states between

1980 and 1996 It clearly points to the pre-eminence of theagricultural sector as a source of employment for most SADCcountries over the period, with Botswana, Namibia and SouthAfrica being the main exceptions

In Table 6, country-level indicators of labour forceparticipation are provided for the 1980–99 period A decliningparticipation rate can be observed in Angola, the DRC,Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique and Namibia In Swaziland,Tanzania and Zambia the rates remained virtually unchanged.Improvements were observed only in Botswana, South Africaand Zimbabwe, though the gains in the latter will havereversed latterly The table also provides gender-disaggregatedstatistics The gender inequalities evident in the regional

Angola 49.5 45.9 45.7 42 53.3 49.9Botswana 43.6 44.0 41.8 39.4 45.5 48.8DRC 44.4 41.1 38.8 35.4 50.4 47.0Lesotho 42.0 41.8 30.9 30.5 53.8 53.6Malawi 50.3 47.6 49.3 46.0 51.4 49.3Mozambique 55.3 51.8 53.3 49.5 57.3 54.1Namibia 43.3 41.3 34.4 33.5 52.7 49.0South Africa 38.3 40.9 26.8 30.7 50.0 51.5Swaziland 35.7 35.7 23.5 25.8 48.0 46.2Tanzania 51.2 51.1 50.2 49.9 52.2 52.4Zambia 41.8 41.8 37.2 37.1 46.7 46.5Zimbabwe 44.9 47.8 39.5 42.2 50.4 53.6Africa 42.9 43.3 34.2 35 51.7 51.6

Table 6: Labour force participation rate (percentage of population of all ages in labour force)

labour market in 1980 have persisted over time, which suggeststhat gender concerns have not been adequately mainstreamedinto policy formulation and programme implementation InSouth Africa, labour force participation increased more forwomen (3.9 per cent) than for men (1.5 per cent), while inSwaziland female participation increased 2.3 per cent and maleparticipation actually fell by 1.8 per cent

Unemployment rates within the SADC region are high andshow a firm upward trend, with estimates increasing markedlyfrom 18.6 million in 1986 to 50.9 million in 2000, or from 31 to

59 per cent From a sectoral perspective, it is estimated thatemployment in the subregion declined by 16.2 per centbetween 1986 and 1998, with the decline of 18.7 per cent inthe agricultural sector exceeding that in the industrial sector,while the decline in the services sector was only 6.6 per cent.Employment in the agricultural sector dipped significantly after

1992, when a severe drought hit the SADC area, stabilisingonly four or five years later (Kritzinger-van Niekerk & PintoMoreira 2002)

recording a decrease in debt service as a percentage of GDPbetween 1990 and 2000 (Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique,Swaziland and Tanzania) have not consistently used their debtsavings to increase social spending, such as in the education

or health sectors Botswana and Malawi are the two SADCcountries that show a clear negative association (as one goesdown the other goes up) between debt service and socialspending in these sectors, with a corresponding positiverelationship (both exhibiting trends in the same direction, e.g.both declining) between debt service and military expendi-ture In the case of Mozambique, declining debt service didnot translate into gains in education even with a sizeabledecrease in military spending In the case of Swaziland, therewas a nominal increase in education expenditure and amoderate gain in health spending However, the military votealso showed a nominal increase Finally, in Tanzania, there

was a decrease in health spending despite declining debtservice over the decade, coupled with reduced military expen-diture Unfortunately, we do not have figures for educationexpenditure to determine whether this sector experienceddisproportionate gains.

There is also no consistent trend for those countries in theregion recording an increase in debt service as a percentage ofGDP between 1990 and 2000 (Lesotho, Namibia and Zambia).For Lesotho, there was increased social spending anddeclining military expenditure alongside rising debt service InZambia, increasing debt service was accompanied by adeclining education vote, increasing health vote and substan-tially reduced military spending For Namibia, there was areduction in health and military spending; we do not havetrend data for the education sector Nonetheless, education

Table 7: Priorities in public spending, 1985–1997

Country Public expenditure (% of GDP) Total debt

service Education Health Military (% of GDP)

1985 1995 1985 1995 1985 1995 1990 2000 –87 –97 –87 –97 –87 –97

spending in the 1995 to 1997 period was the highest of theSADC countries listed.

South Africa showed improvements in education and healthexpenditure, as well as a declining military vote Unfortunately,

we do not have trend data for debt service, so we are unable

to classify the country according to whether it produced debtsavings over the decade or not Given the transitional state ofAngola and the DRC, and the political instability in Zimbabwe

at present, it is difficult to make meaningful assessments of thetrends reported for these countries in Table 7

the SADC region is almost 200 million and is unevenlydistributed between the member states (Table 8) In 2000, thepopulation of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was

26 per cent of the SADC total, followed by South Africa (21.9per cent) and Tanzania (16.1 per cent) Taken together, thesethree countries account for 64 per cent of the region’s popula-tion, with the remaining third distributed among the othermember countries Four countries’ populations are less than 10million and, of the 12 countries, the three least populous(Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia) account for a mere 2.8 percent of the regional total

Most of the SADC countries have experienced high growthrates During the 1975 to 2000 period, the South Africangrowth rate was estimated at 2.1 per cent The estimatedpercentage growth rate for the DRC during the same periodwas 3.2 per cent (UNDP 2002) It is, however, anticipated thatthe process of development coupled with AIDS will result inlower growth rates in most of the member states in the future.The exceptions are Angola and the DRC, which are projected

to maintain annual growth rates higher than three per centbetween 2000 and 2015 Moreover, despite projecteddecreases in population growth, it is estimated that Malawiand Tanzania will still have annual growth rates exceeding twoper cent between 2000 and 2015 (UNDP 2002)

SADC member states also display a wide variance inpopulation density In 1999, the number of people per sq km

in Botswana was estimated at 2.8 and in Namibia at 2.1 tion density varied between 20 and 70 people per sq km in theDRC, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland andLesotho (Kritzinger-van Niekerk & Pinto Moreira 2002) Themajority of the region’s population is rurally based, with 11 ofthe 14 countries having urban populations constituting less than

Popula-50 per cent of their total populations The only exceptions areSouth Africa (50.4 per cent), Botswana (50.3 per cent) and theSeychelles (63.8 per cent) Despite this, the rate of urbanisation

in most of the countries over the past two decades has beenfairly rapid for all countries except South Africa, Zambia and theDRC, where levels have remained fairly consistent

Human Development Index Comparative rates of growth withinSADC member states are highly uneven (Kritzinger-van

Niekerk & Pinto Moreira 2002) According to the 2000 SADC

Table 8: Population size, density and urbanisation

Country Land area Population Population Urban population

total population

1970 1980 2000 1970 1980 1999 1970 1980 2000

Angola 1 246 700 5.59 7.02 12.72 4.5 5.6 9.9 15.0 21.0 34.2 Botswana 566 730 0.64 0.91 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.8 8.4 15.1 50.3 Lesotho 30 350 1.06 1.35 2.15 35 44.3 69.3 8.6 13.4 28.0 DRC 2 267 050 20.27 27.01 51.39 8.9 11.9 21.9 30.3 28.7 30.3 Malawi 94 080 4.52 6.18 11.04 48.0 65.7 114.7 6.0 9.1 24.9 Mozambique 784 090 9.4 12.1 17.58 11.9 15.4 22.0 5.7 13.1 40.2 Namibia 823 290 0.79 1.03 1.74 0.96 1.25 2.1 18.6 22.8 30.9 South Africa 1 221 040 22.09 27.58 42.8 18.1 22.6 34.5 47.8 48.1 50.4 Swaziland 17 200 0.42 0.57 1.05 24.4 32.8 59.2 9.7 17.8 26.4 Tanzania 883 590 13.69 18.58 33.7 15.5 21 37.3 6.7 14.8 32.9 Zambia 743 390 4.19 5.74 10.09 5.6 7.7 13.3 30.2 39.8 39.6 Zimbabwe 386 850 5.26 7.01 12.11 13.6 18.1 30.8 16.9 22.3 35.3 SADC 9 066 840 88.8 116.1 199.2 9.8 12.8 21.5 24.9 27.8 36.8

Source: Kritzinger-van Niekerk & Pinto Moreira (2002)

Regional Human Development Report, the average value of the

whole was 0.538 in 1998 compared with 0.568 in 1995 (UNDP

development in the region of 5.3 per cent over the period.Disaggregating the index into its constituent components, itcan be observed that the decline in SADC during the late 1990swas attributable to a downturn in each of the key variables,most especially real per capital income and life expectancy atbirth (SADC FANR 2003) The reduction in life expectancy islargely due to the increasing impact of the HIV/AIDSpandemic, whilst the slow economic growth has left many inpoverty Moreover, in Angola and the Democratic Republic ofthe Congo, armed conflict was instrumental in the deteriora-tion in human development

As Table 9 shows, throughout the late 1990s six SADCmember states consistently fell within the medium humandevelopment category (an index value of 0.500–0.799), whilstthe other six were in the low human development category(an index value below 0.500) Human development deterio-rated in most SADC countries between 1995 and 1998 Yet,despite the overall declining trend in human development inthe region, some member states experienced positive changes

in the three key variables other than life expectancy Forinstance, South Africa recorded an estimated 17 per centgrowth in gross enrolment, while adult literacy increased bybetween six per cent and 15 per cent in Namibia,Mozambique, Botswana, Tanzania and Lesotho Similarly, realper capita income grew by about between six per cent to 14per cent in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mauritius and Lesotho(SADC FANR 2003)

Figure 4: GNP per capita (nominal 2000) US$

Income poverty and inequality In the face of relatively low levels

of income and high levels of human deprivation, poverty may

be considered one of the principal development challengesconfronting the SADC region The average GNP per capita forthe region (in nominal dollars), including Mauritius and theSeychelles, was US$932 in 2000 As with the Human Develop-ment Index, there is a significant degree of variance betweenmember states, illustrated by the fact that the highest rankedcountry (Botswana) has a GNP per capita 33 times larger thanthe lowest ranked country (DRC) (Figure 3) Three fairlydistinct groupings emerge: South Africa and Botswana fall inthe highest grouping, with real GNP per capita exceedingUS$3 000 in 2000; Swaziland and Namibia form a secondgrouping, with GNP per capita of US$1 000 to 2 000; theremaining eight countries are in a third grouping, with GNPper capita of less than US$1 000 The average annual GDPgrowth rate for the SADC region declined from 3.1 per cent in

2000 to 1.95 per cent in 2001, meaning that the region lagsbehind sub-Saharan Africa and that, in order to attain themillennium development goal of halving extreme poverty by

2015, the minimum required growth rate would need to bebetween six and seven per cent per annum (SAIIA 2003).Poverty is widespread in the SADC region, with an estimated

70 per cent of the population living below the internationalpoverty line of US$2 a day, and 40 per cent or 76 millionpeople living in extreme poverty (less than US$1 a day) Table

10 provides available country-level data on the incidence ofincome poverty and inequality It starkly illustrates that, formost SADC states, a high level of poverty is juxtaposed withequally high inequality in income distribution (SADC 2000) Anumber of SADC countries have Gini coefficients that placethem amongst the world’s most unequal societies

The high incidence of poverty in the majority of countries inthe region has been ascribed to a combination of factors,including the following:

Table 10: Income poverty and inequality

Percentage of population below income poverty line

(1993 PPP$) poverty line coefficient

Source: Pillay (2002); SADC (1998, 2000); UNDP (2000)

Note: The symbol ‘ ’ indicates that no data is available for that country.

• The adverse impact of structural adjustment measuresimplemented by some countries;

• Limited economic opportunities and high unemploymentrates;

• Limited access to productive resources, such as land andcapital, which adversely affects rural women;

• Unequal distribution of economic and political power,rendering the poor voiceless and powerless;

• External factors, such as unfavourable terms of trade formost of the region’s exports on the international marketand the attendant debt-servicing obligations, leading tolimited resources to devote to poverty programmes in anumber of countries;

• Population pressures and unsustainable agriculturalpractices resulting in the cultivation of marginal lands, soilerosion and degradation, water pollution and scarcity, andthe depletion of forests and other natural resources;

• Persistent droughts, floods and natural disasters; and

• Morbidity, violence and crime (SADC 2000, 2003)

Other, more micro- or household-level determinants ofincome poverty include the size of the household; the gender,age, educational attainment and occupation of the householdhead; access to productive assets; and distance from majorservices (SADC 2000) The relatively high levels of income andresource inequality in the region have been attributed tofactors such as the impact of a colonial legacy (Zimbabwe,Namibia and Malawi), apartheid policies (South Africa), reformprogrammes (Zambia), as well as the absence of redistributivepolicies (Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland) (SADC 2000)

Human Poverty Index The 2000/01 World Development Report

entitled Attacking Poverty has assisted in promoting an

awareness of the multidimensionality of poverty In discussingpoverty in the SADC region, it is important to look beyond thetraditional money-metric approach to poverty and examinedeprivation in various other domains One useful measure in

this regard is the Human Poverty Index (HPI), which wasdeveloped by the UNDP in 1997 and attempts to opera-tionalise Sen’s capability concept by focusing on groupswhose choices and opportunities are heavily constrained inrelation to longevity, educational attainment and standard ofliving (Gordon & Spicker 1999) The HPI consists of fiveweighted components, namely:

• The percentage of people expected to die before age 40;

• The percentage of adults who are illiterate;

• The percentage of people with access to health services;

• The percentage of people with access to safe water; and

• The percentage of children under five who aremalnourished

Figure 5 and Table 11 provide an indication of the extent ofhuman poverty amongst the SADC member states, both interms of the aggregate index and its components The levelsrange from the highest figure of about 50.7 per cent of thepopulation affected by human poverty in Mozambique to thelowest index of 20.2 per cent in South Africa Mozambique,Malawi and Zambia are worst affected, since their HPI valuesexceed that of the region as a whole (31.5 per cent).Nonetheless, a number of other member states have an indexonly marginally below the regional average While theregional levels of human poverty decreased from 39.9 to 31.5per cent in 1995, human poverty is on the increase in somemember states, including Mozambique, Zambia, Botswana andZimbabwe

The greatest deprivation is mainly in the area of economic

provisioning, particularly low access to safe drinking water and child malnutrition, with a number of member states

falling below the regional average on these two components

of human poverty In respect of access to safe water, the mostadversely affected countries are Angola, Mozambique,Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Swaziland As for child malnu-trition, nearly all the aforementioned countries (exceptLesotho and Swaziland), including Tanzania and Namibia,

have more than 26 per cent of children under five years of ageaffected by malnutrition (SADC 2003) The problem of poverty

as reflected in poor access to water and malnutrition has beenfurther aggravated by the drought situation that has hit theregion as manifested in the current humanitarian crisis

Approximately a third of the member states are deprived interms of knowledge, given that adult illiteracy is higher thanthe regional average.5In eight of the member states, more than

a third of the population has a life expectancy of 40 years ofage

Table 11: Human poverty in the SADC region (1998)

South Africa 33 20.2 25.9 15.4 13 13 9

Swaziland 45 27.4 20.2 21.7 50 45 41 10 Botswana 48 28.3 37.1 24.4 10 14 45 17

to survive

to age 40 (%) 1998 Rank

Country

Value (%)

Adult illiteracy rate (%

age 15 and above) 1998

Safe water 1990 –98

Health services 1990 –98

tion 1990 –98

Sanita- weight children under age 5 (%) 1990 –98

Under-Percentage population

Human Poverty Index HPI-1 (1998)

Source: Pillay (2002); UNDP (2000)

Note: The symbol ‘ ’ indicates that no data is available for that country.

Challenges to Social Development

phenomenon in southern Africa It has happened in the past,

it is here at present and will recur in the future The regionsuffered a chronic food and humanitarian crisis in 1992 as aresult of drought conditions affecting 18 million people AsTable 12 illustrates, not only is food insecurity a persistentproblem in the region, but it is on aggregate an increasinglypervasive problem too It is therefore not surprising that theissue of food security has featured prominently on the SADCagenda, as indicated by the adoption of a Regional Policy andStrategy for Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources in 1992and the revised ‘Food Security Strategy Framework’ in 1997.However, despite this policy framework, southern Africa isagain facing a serious food and humanitarian crisis, whichstarted in the 2001/02 season and is affecting over 14 millionpeople Six SADC countries have borne the brunt of the crisis,

Figure 5: Human Poverty Index (%) (1998)