Changing-Tides_FINAL_LOW-RES-081516

National Climate Assessment, global average sea level is estimated to rise another one to four feet by the end of this century, with some areas seeing even greater increases due to local

CHANGING TIDES

How Sea-level RiSe HaRmS wildlife and RecReation

CHANGING TIDES

hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife

and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng

The U.s easTeRn seabOaRd

Copyright © 2016 National Wildlife Federation

Lead Authors: Lauren Anderson, Patty Glick, Shannon Heyck-Williams, and Jim Murphy.

We appreciate the work and dedication to conservation of all National Wildlife Federation staff and our 50

affiliate partners, which help make efforts like this possible In particular, we wish to thank the following

contributors to this report:

Catherine Bowes, Zach Cockrum, Hilary Falk, Manley Fuller, Melissa Gaydos, Tim Gestwicki, Steve Gilbert,

Brenna Goggin, Ben Gregg, Amber Hewett, Christopher Hilke, Nicole Holstein, Tara Losoff, Jim Lyon, Todd Martin,

Jen Mihills, Eric Orff, Vanessa Peña, Ed Perry, Joshua Saks, Taj Schottland, Bruce Stein, and Ron Warnken

This report was made possible by the many donors and supporters of the National Wildlife Federation

Suggested citation: Anderson, L., P Glick, S Heyck-Williams, and J Murphy 2016 Changing Tides: How Sea-Level

Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation Economies along the U.S Eastern Seaboard

National Wildlife Federation: Washington, DC

Cover image: Loggerhead sea turtle Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

national wildlife federation

1990 K Street nwwashington, dc 20006www.nwf.org

taBle of contentS

execUtive SUmmaRy 1

intRodUction 4

EffEcts of sEa-lEvEl RisE on amERica’s East coast 5

State impactS: tHe coSt of RiSinG SeaS in tHe SoUtHeaSt, mid-atlantic, and noRtHeaSt 7

Southeast Region 7

Florida: The Everglades and Florida Keys 7

Georgia: Sapelo Island and Blackbeard National Wildlife Refuge 9

South Carolina: Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve 10

North Carolina: Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Banks 11

Mid-Atlantic Region 12

Virginia: Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge 12

Maryland: Assateague Island and Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge 14

Delaware: Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge 16

Pennsylvania: John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge 17

New Jersey: Delaware Bay and Egg Island Wildlife Management Area 18

New York: Gateway National Recreation Area and Jamaica Bay 19

Northeast Region 20

Connecticut: Long Island Sound and Barn Island Wildlife Management Area 20

Rhode Island: Ninigret Pond and Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge 21

Massachusetts: Plum Island and the Great Marsh 22

New Hampshire: Hampton-Seabrook Estuary 23

Maine: Acadia National Park 23

taKinG action 25

Policy Recommendations: Two Pillars for Climate Action 25

endnoteS 29

tates along the Eastern Seaboard are already

feeling the impacts of climate change Climate

change, which is caused by the atmospheric

build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs)

from fossil fuel combustion and other human activities,

contributes to higher ocean temperatures (which

in turn have been linked to increased intensity and

frequency of hurricanes) and sea-level rise As such,

our coasts and communities, even ones inland, are

facing growing challenges from erosion, saltwater

intrusion, and floods These impacts have far reaching

consequences for both natural and human communities

along the coast from Miami to Maine

Coasts are critical to wildlife and people Communities

across the region depend on coastal beaches, bays,

and islands for a wide array of benefits These unique

ecosystems provide crucial habitat for wildlife such

as fish and waterfowl and support robust tourism and recreation economies They also serve as natural buffers against potentially damaging storms and, increasingly, against rising sea levels

As GHG emissions have increased over the last century, warming seawater has expanded, glaciers have melted, and the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have begun to weaken and break off into the ocean

This has led to an 8 inch rise in global average sea level over the past century As global temperatures continue

to increase, further sea-level rise is inevitable Exactly how much and how fast sea-level rise will occur in the decades to come is difficult to determine, as it depends on how much global GHG emissions will increase and how glaciers and ice sheets will react to rising temperatures

What is clear, however, is that the more GHG emissions continue to increase, the higher sea level will climb

execUtive SUmmaRy

SRoyal terns Photo: Rachel Kramer.

the near future, by taking actions to resist impacts and improve coastal resilience—a strategy referred to as

adaptation In the wake of increasingly dire projections

for sea-level rise, however, it is equally essential that we prevent the worst outcomes by significantly reducing the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions—a strategy

known as mitigation

To protect our communities and natural resources, we should swiftly implement a two-pronged strategy of mitigation and adaptation: 1) dramatically reduce our GHG emissions to slow and eventually stop the impacts

of climate change, and 2) proactively prepare for impacts that cannot be avoided

Americans are eager for answers At the start of 2016, 70% of Americans believed that climate change was occurring.8 As people increasingly experience the negative consequences of carbon pollution, the need for action becomes clearer

Projections for sea-level rise give reasons for

concern According to the 2014 U.S National Climate

Assessment, global average sea level is estimated to

rise another one to four feet by the end of this century,

with some areas seeing even greater increases due to

localized factors such as land subsidence.1

Even at the lower end of sea-level rise projections, the

impacts on wildlife habitats and human communities

could be devastating And yet, recent science suggests

that the higher-range scenario underestimates the

amount of sea-level rise we could experience In this

scenario, sea levels are projected to rise by 6.6 feet

by 2100 if drastic emission cuts are not made soon.2

Totals could reach well over that amount within a few

centuries if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt

significantly Recent evidence suggests this scenario is

increasingly likely if GHG emissions continue to rise.3,4

Consider that under a 6.6 foot sea-level rise scenario

alone, large areas of coastal cities, including parts of

Boston, Atlantic City, Charleston, Virginia Beach, and

Miami, would be under water

In addition to sea-level rise, climate change presents

another risk to our coasts: more intense and damaging

storms An increase in the frequency and intensity of

Atlantic hurricanes since the early 1980s has been

linked, in part, to warmer surface water temperatures.5

While projections for the future are somewhat

uncertain, studies suggest that in the coming decades

the number of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms

will increase and that the amount of rainfall associated

with hurricanes will be greater Sea-level rise is

exacerbating the impacts of storm surges— by allowing

the incoming domes of water to reach farther inland—a

trend that is expected to continue.6 By mid-century,

certain areas could experience “100-year” flooding

events (i.e., that have a 1% annual chance of occurring)

more frequently—even annually—because higher sea

levels make them more likely to occur 7

As the risks from sea-level rise continue to grow, so,

too, has the impetus for states and communities to

prepare for changes that are occurring, or will occur in Cormorant Photo: Candy Childrey.

This report demonstrates the risks to wildlife, recreation, and local economies of sea-level rise by illustrating key impacts in 15 eastern U.S states:

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine It then lays out policy solutions to both mitigate the threat of, and adapt to, a changing climate Specifically the report recommends:

Policymakers on the federal, state and local levels

can and should reduce carbon emissions by enacting

policies that speed the transition from carbon-intensive

fossil fuel extraction, development and combustion to

clean renewable energy sources, and by incorporating

carbon storage incentives and requirements into

forestry and land use decisions In light of the growing

evidence that human-induced climate change is already

altering our landscape and natural resources, America

must become far more diligent in its effort to craft

meaningful and efficient solutions

mitigation

• Set a carbon price to achieve economy-wide

emission reductions

• implement the clean power plan to transition to a

clean energy economy

• expand wildlife-friendly renewable energy such as

responsibly developed wind and solar

• limit methane waste from oil and gas development

• Reduce and better account for carbon impacts of

fossil fuel development

• Support clean transportation such as low-emission

vehicles and public transit

• enhance ecosystem carbon storage and sequestration

• improve opportunities for habitat migration

• Reform coastal permitting policies to encourage natural infrastructure

• Reform the national flood insurance program

to stop encouraging development in risky areas

• Ensure adaptation policies benefit all members of society, including those most vulnerable

Horned grebe pair Photo: Ken Conger.

Even under the low-end sea level projections, which assumes, optimistically, that the world will achieve significant near-term reductions in GHG emissions, coastal communities will face significant impacts Yet there is compelling evidence that even the high-end projections, which assume a continued increase in global emissions, likely underestimate potential sea-level rise.12 For example, research shows that, under

a 4°C (7.2°F) increase in global average temperature, accelerating ice loss on Greenland and Antarctica would contribute to possibly hundreds of feet of sea-level rise within a matter of just a few centuries.13,14

What’s more, sea-level rise is not uniform along the nation’s coastlines A number of factors, including variability in ocean currents and vertical land movement, can affect relative sea level changes at regional and local scales In many places along the East Coast, for example, land subsidence due to soil compaction and activities such as groundwater extraction mean that actual sea-level rise will be greater than the global average and, thus, will have more significant impacts

he East Coast is fortunate to have a

tremendous diversity of tidal waterways,

wetlands, barrier islands, and other coastal

habitats, which support a wide variety of fish and

wildlife species and enhance the economies and quality

of life of nearby communities Each year, beach

visitation, recreational fishing, and wildlife viewing

activities alone contribute tens of billions of dollars to

East Coast states.9

These ecosystems also have natural abilities to adapt

to the dynamic conditions along eastern shorelines

Barrier islands naturally shift and reform after

storms, and tidal marshland has an extraordinary

ability to adapt to changes in inundation and salinity

from saltwater intrusion However, these remarkable

capacities are being overwhelmed by sea-level

rise, particularly where such habitats have already

been damaged by development, coastal armoring

(developing physical barriers such as sea walls), and

other activities

The extraction, development, and combustion of fossil

fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas are the primary

forces driving human-caused climate change For

America’s coastal communities, accelerating sea-level

rise due to the expansion of warming ocean water and

melting glaciers and ice sheets is among the most

direct and certain consequences of climate change

The average global sea level rose about 8 inches over

the past century, and since the early 1990s the rate

of sea-level rise has been accelerating.10 As global

temperatures continue to increase, further sea-level

rise is inevitable

Recent scenarios developed for the 2014 U.S National

Climate Assessment (NCA) suggest that sea-level rise

will range from an additional 8 inches (over 1992

levels) to 6.6 feet by the end of the century, with a

mid-range estimate of 1-4 feet.11

intRodUction

T

this graph depicts annual absolute sea level change averaged over the entire Earth’s ocean surface the tidal gauges measure relative sea level along the coast and satellite images examine absolute sea level change over the entire ocean Source: epa, climate change indicators in the United States.

Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change: 1880 - 2014

stands to lose the most in financial assets of any coastal city—$3.5 trillion New York City is ranked third, after the coastal city of Guangzhou in China.15 While

“mega cities” like New York and Miami have the most economic assets at risk, poorer areas along the coast have less ability to adapt to or escape the impacts of sea-level rise and extreme weather events This means they, too, are highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change, which threatens important values such as social and cultural cohesion The populations of coastal communities are also expected to increase in the future, placing more people in danger and adding risk to socio-economic systems

2) Saltwater intrusion into the freshwater that supplies communities and wildlife:

Sea-level rise will impact the fresh water table along the coast as salt water seeps into freshwater aquifers

here are numerous impacts from sea-level

rise along the East Coast In this report,

we focus on nine ways in which sea-level

rise is predicted to affect key East Coast natural systems

that are vital for wildlife, recreation economies, and

local communities

nine impactS of Sea-level

RiSe on natURal SyStemS

and commUnitieS:

1) Increased coastal flooding: Many cities

along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States face

increasing risk of coastal flooding Based on a global

analysis that ranks cities for exposure of vulnerable

assets to coastal flooding in 2070 (due to both climate

change and other socio-economic factors), Miami

effectS of Sea-level RiSe

on amERica’s East coast

NINE IMPACTS

OF SEA-LEVEL RISE

INCREASED COASTAL FLOODING

SALTWATER INTRUSION

BEACH EROSION

LOSS OF WETLAND BUFFER ZONES GREATER

DAMAGE FROM WEATHER EVENTS

LOSS OF PROPERTY VALUES

LOSS OF HUNTING AND FISHING OPPORTUNITY

LOSS OF OUTDOOR RECREATION INCOME

CULTURAL IMPACTS

T

6) Loss of property values: Local governments rely on property tax revenue that comes from seaside homes and businesses As sea levels continue to rise, both property values and business opportunities in many areas are likely to decline At least $1.4 trillion worth of property in the United States is within one eighth of a mile from the coast,25 and storm surge from hurricanes can travel miles inland.26 In some parts of low-lying Florida, every foot of sea-level rise will result

in the shoreline moving inland 500 to 2,000 feet.27

7) Loss of hunting and fishing opportunities: As the seas warm from rising global temperatures, some marine species are moving north toward cooler ocean waters This shift in distribution leads to disruption in coastal ecosystems as prey and predator species become separated.28 This effect will

be compounded by sea-level rise as it alters coastal ecosystems Juvenile species that depend on coastal tidal marshes for their development will lose habitat from inundation The multi-billion dollar fishing industry will be impacted, disturbing the coastal communities that depend on reliable fishing as a food source or economic engine Hunting opportunities—

such as for waterfowl—may also be impacted by habitat changes to coastal wetlands and disruption of food sources.29

8) Loss of wildlife, natural places, and outdoor recreation income: Other species like shore birds and sea turtles, a tourist draw in many areas, could face altered ecosystems and habitat loss as the oceans warm and sea level increases The economic value of coastal recreation in the United States is between $20 billion and $60 billion annually for beach-going, angling, birdwatching, and snorkeling/diving.30

9) Cultural impacts: In the case of local communities that depend on coastal ecosystems for subsistence fishing and farming, sea-level rise could dramatically change their way of life For example, the Seminole Tribe of South Florida depends on a healthy Everglades ecosystem to preserve their cultural heritage.31

Contaminated aquifers can pollute the freshwater

needed for agriculture and drinking water This change

in salinity will also harm, and result in the loss of,

coastal habitats such as tidal freshwater marsh.16 In

addition, saltwater intrusion can damage infrastructure

such as irrigation, wastewater and drinking water

treatment facilities, and septic tanks

3) Beach erosion: Beaches provide tourist

attractions and critical barriers between the ocean

and coastal property Nearly half of Florida’s beaches

are designated as critically eroding, which has forced

the state to replenish the beaches with millions of

cubic yards of sand According to a 2013 review,

Florida has spent $393 million over the last decade

on sand replacement.17 Erosion also affects many

species, such as shorebirds and turtles, which rely on

healthy beaches for nesting and migration

4) Loss of wetland buffer zones: Coastal

wetlands provide vital habitat for birds and fish, and

also offer coastal communities flood storage (absorbing

and storing flood water), storm surge buffers, erosion

control, and water quality improvements.18 Land use

changes, hurricanes, and sea-level rise are increasing

the rate of coastal wetland loss in the U.S.19 Increased

inundation from sea-level rise is overwhelming the

ability of tidal marshes to adapt, resulting in damage to

these ecosystems In the Delaware region, one acre of

tidal wetlands are collectively being lost every day.20

5) Greater damage from more frequent

and severe extreme weather events: As

the climate continues to change, extreme weather

events are expected to occur more often, resulting

in greater damage in areas already experiencing

effects of sea-level rise Costs associated with these

weather events have increased significantly over the

past decades, exacerbated by sea-level rise and other

factors.21 Already, average losses caused by recent

hurricane winds, land subsidence, and sea-level rise

are estimated to be $14 billion per year.22 In 2005,

Hurricane Katrina alone caused an estimated $134

billion in damages.23 Hurricane Sandy in 2012 caused

an estimated $50 billion in damages.24

Florida

Out of all U.S states, Florida is most vulnerable to sea-level rise, in large part because much of the state is at or near sea level The Miami region has the largest amount of exposed assets and the fourth-largest population susceptible to sea-level rise in the world.32 Other areas of coastal Florida, such

as Tampa Bay, also are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise With a $60 billion beach tourism industry,33 the impacts of sea-level rise have the potential to severely harm Florida’s economy

Coastal erosion is becoming a growing problem, with increasing demands to replace sand on eroding beaches A recent study by the Army Corps of Engineers found that Miami-Dade County will need roughly 20 million cubic yards of sand (or the equivalent of over 10,000 football fields covered in 1 foot of sand) over the next 50 years to maintain its beaches.34 The county has used up nearly all of its offshore sand sources, and will need to find acceptable alternative sources for future projects According to estimates in Miami-Dade County’s FY 2013-2014 Proposed Budget and Multi-Year Capital Plan, the county will need to spend more than $32 million on beach erosion and sand replacement between 2013 and 2017 Miami-Dade’s estimated beachfront property is valued at more than

$14.7 billion, not including infrastructure;35 overall, $69 billion worth of property is at risk of flooding in less than 15 years in Florida.36

State impactS: tHe coSt of RiSinG

SeaS in tHe SoUtHeaSt, mid-atlantic,

and noRtHeaSt

FL

GA

SC NC VA

PA NY

ME

NH MA

the cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystems that are already deprived of historic freshwater inflow from the Everglades Today, efforts to restore the Everglades are among the largest restoration programs in history

This vast watershed’s ecological communities are home to many unique plants and animals, of which 67 species are listed as threatened or endangered As the coastal biological communities shift inland with the rising seas, the Everglades are beginning to change

Sawgrass habitat, which is intolerant of salt water, is being replaced with mangrove habitat On average, the Everglades slope upwards from the southern Florida coast by two inches per mile, so for every two inches

of sea-level rise we can expect to see a mile of the Everglades altered.39 Depending on how fast sea-level rises, even mangroves may not be able to keep pace with the shifting habitat.40

As parts of the Everglades’ wetlands become flooded with rising seas, fish nursery habitat and other sheltered wildlife areas will be lost Some species will

be able to migrate northward with shifting habitat, but if seawalls are installed to protect property, these migration barriers will harm species and habitat,41including sea turtle nesting beaches Salt water is also beginning to seep into the freshwater aquifers that supply the Everglades, polluting the water source for seven million Floridians

Fish and wildlife that depend on coastal habitats also

are at risk Florida, along with other states on the East

Coast, is part of the Atlantic Flyway As sea level rises,

bird species could lose the habitats they rely on to rest

and forage for food on their long migration According

to National Audubon Society, the horned grebe,

brown-headed nuthatch, and wood stork are expected to be

seriously impacted by climate change.38

The Everglades and Florida Keys

Some of Florida’s top tourist attractions, including the

Everglades and Florida Keys, are threatened by

sea-level rise In the Everglades, freshwater historically

flowed down from the north to meet the influx of

tidal water in the unique subtropical climate of South

Florida This expansive wetland was reduced by half

in the 20th century by massive ditching, diking, and

wetland filling projects Sea-level rise will exacerbate

Sea-level rise and other climate stressors have

raised concerns among florida’s citizens a June

2015 poll of florida’s 27th congressional District,

including miami, found 81 percent of respondents

believe climate change is a problem and 82 percent

want congress to support economical ways to

mitigate it.37

Bonefish Photo: Luyen Chou.

Tidal freshwater systems are also threatened by sea-level rise These delicate wildlife rich ecosystems depend on freshwater flow into Georgia’s estuaries and are threatened by the encroachment of salt water from sea-level rise.52 The Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, located along the Savannah River, and the mouth of the Altamaha River, are two areas where changes in salinity are altering freshwater habitats, exacerbated

by dredging projects.53 Vegetation is dying at an accelerated pace as salt water intrudes, increasing the likelihood that underlying sediment will degrade and dissolve, further speeding the influx of salt water into freshwater habitat.54

Florida is also known as the fishing capitol of the

world, and many prized fish species rely on the habitats

provided by the Florida Keys Florida is the number

one destination in the U.S for saltwater anglers (with

2.4 million state visits annually) Saltwater recreational

fishing brought in $7.6 billion and supported 109,341

jobs as of 2014.42 As the climate continues to change,

this Florida tradition will be impacted The bonefish,

tarpon, and permits that support recreational fishing

in the Florida Keys generate an estimated $427 million

annually,43 but the subtropical and tropical flats upon

which these fish species depend are threatened by

sea-level rise.44 Seagrass beds and mangroves are

essential habitat for juveniles of several grouper species

(including gags), which take a relatively long time

to mature As sea-level rise damages these delicate

ecosystems, fish stock could fall and anglers may not be

able to share the same fishing experiences with their

children and grandchildren

Georgia

Since 1935, the sea-level gauge in Savannah has measured a 9-inch average increase.45 Approximately

675 square miles along the Georgia coast are located below 4.9 feet in elevation46—much

of which is within the National Climate Assessment’s range of projected sea-level rise

by 2100 Chatham County alone, which contains the city

of Savannah, lies mostly below the 3-foot sea-level rise

projected The county has approximately 6,100 homes

and $2.1-billion worth of property at risk.47

Georgia’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism,

real estate, and the fishing industry According to a 1997

review by the Georgia Department of Industry, tourism

in coastal counties generated $1.9 billion in revenue.48

Georgia contains nearly one third of the existing tidal

saltmarshes along the East Coast of the U.S.—nearly

400,000 acres.49 Many species that the fishing industry

depends on, including shrimp, blue crab, and oysters,

rely on the coastal salt marshes that are threatened by

sea-level rise.50 Unfortunately, the state’s salt marshes are

projected to decline by up to 45% by 2100.51

American oystercatcher Photo: Hal and Kirsten Snyder.

In 2008, South Carolina’s natural resources contributed nearly $30 billion in revenue and 230,000 jobs to the state’s economy The state’s beaches alone generate approximately $3.5 billion annually and support 81,000 jobs.62 Outdoor activities, including fishing, hunting and wildlife viewing, contribute $2.2 billion annually to South Carolina’s economy and support nearly 59,000 jobs.Many of these valuable sources of revenue are threatened by sea-level rise and its associated impacts.63

Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve

Santee Delta has more than 20 square miles of interconnected rivers, streams, and marshes This web

of waterways makes up the largest delta on the state’s eastern coast.64 The nearly 24,000 acres of the Santee Coastal Reserves offer important habitat for migrating birds and other wildlife The reserve supports many outdoor activities, including hiking, birding, fishing, and hunting Changing salinity from sea-level rise has resulted in altered vegetation, which in turn impacts duck populations and local duck hunting

Sapelo Island and Blackbeard Island

National Wildlife Refuge

Sapelo Island—considered by some to be the birthplace

of coastal ecology—is a low lying barrier island located

approximately 50 miles south of Savannah in the Duplin

River estuary Sapelo Island and Blackbeard Refuge

form Georgia’s characteristic coastline—low lying

barrier islands with an eastern facing beach, dunes

with some elevated forested land, and salt marshes on

the western side of the island These systems create a

critical storm buffer for the mainland.55

Sapelo is part of the National Estuarine Research

Reserve System, which includes 27 reserves in 22

coastal states The northern half of Sapelo Island is

comprised of the 5,618-acre Blackbeard National

Wildlife Refuge, which provides wildlife habitat,

including maritime forest, salt marsh, freshwater

marsh, and beach habitat The island offers nesting

habitat for the loggerhead sea turtle and a variety of

shorebirds, including the American oystercatcher and

piping plover.56 Sea-level rise worsens coastal erosion

and flooding57 in these areas

Sapelo Island, only accessible by boat and plane, is

also home to the Hog Hammock community, a

Gullah-Geechee settlement retaining West African traditions

and speaking a creole dialect The community has a

long history with the land, including agriculture and

oyster harvesting.58 According to current sea-level rise

projections, this community will be almost entirely

inundated by the end of the century.59,60

South Carolina

In South Carolina, nearly

700,000 people live in the

Charleston area alone It is a busy

seaport ranked eighth in the nation for value of

cargo handled and it is a popular tourist destination

known for its beautiful beaches However, nearly

$150 billion of property is threatened61 by sea-level rise

in this picturesque coastal community

Blue crab Photo: Sally Wyatt.

North Carolina

North Carolina is severely threatened by sea-level rise and storm surge, with projected regional s rising approximately twice the global average due to a host of factors, including groundwater depletion, sediment compaction, and regional variations in ocean currents

There are between 3.1 and 3.9 million acres of wetlands

in coastal North Carolina66 and approximately 2.5 million acres of estuarine waters North Carolina’s network of coastal waterways is the largest lagoon

on the East Coast and the second largest tract of estuarine habitat in the U.S.67 As sea levels rise, changing water levels and salinity will impact these coastal ecosystems These areas are needed to shelter juvenile species of game fish and provide habitat for migrating bird species

The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in just four of North Carolina’s counties over the next 75 years is $6.9 billion The lost recreation value of climate change-induced sea-level rise to local beach goers is projected to be $93 million a year by 2030 and $223 million a year by 2080 for the southern North Carolina beaches.68 Sea-level rise will also affect coastal infrastructure According to the National

Sand dunes, beaches, and small barrier islands, like

those found in Santee Delta, provide critical habitat for

migrating sea birds and the endangered loggerhead sea

turtle Many of these small islands and coastal habitats

are bordered and protected by tidal marshes

The tidal marshes in Santee Delta provide vital

habitat to juvenile species that replenish fishery stock,

including shrimp, blue crab, and flounder In addition

to this, the marshes shelter the smaller prey species

that large game fish depend on As seas rise and more

extreme weather events occur, these critical ecosystems

will continue to be damaged and marine species will

suffer as a consequence

Wintering waterfowl depend on habitat in South

Carolina’s tidal wetlands, as does the state’s hunting

industry Rising sea level and changes in salinity

could damage this critical habitat, and as ecosystems

shift inland to adapt to these changes, they could

encounter development barriers (coastal communities)

in many cases.65

Similar impacts are occurring in other critically

important coastal habitat conservation areas up and

down the coast of South Carolina, including ACE Basin,

North Inlet/Winya Bay System, and Waccamaw River

National Wildlife Refuge

Red wolf Photo: Christine Majul.

and eroded by rising seas, residents will pay the price.72

In 2014, the Outer Banks contributed $21.3 billion from visitor spending to North Carolina’s economy In addition to this, the island chain contributed 200,000 jobs, $1.5 billion in federal tax revenue, $1 billion

in state tax revenue, and $636 million in local tax revenue.73 The islands are also important stopover areas for nesting and migratory birds (including the eastern painted bunting), and iconic endangered species like loggerhead sea turtles, which spend considerable time in shallow coastal estuaries

Measurements of sea level at Sewells Point, Norfolk, show that water levels over the past 80 years have risen 14.5 inches, significantly higher than the global average.74 This dramatic difference is in part due to gradual subsidence of coastal land in Virginia, which exacerbates localized sea-level rise

Sea-level rise has also worsened the impacts of coastal storms Hurricane Isabel in 2003 caused $925 million

in damages to insured properties75 in Virginia; an increase in extreme weather events will likely lead

to even greater losses Virginia Beach is the largest city in Virginia, with a population of 450,000.76 The receding shorelines threaten the resorts, hotels, and restaurants tourists flock to, and there is potential for significant economic impacts if the area continues to

Climate Assessment, “the North Carolina Department of

Transportation is raising the roadbed of U.S Highway

64 across the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula by four

feet, which includes 18 inches to allow for higher future

sea level.” This project alone is expected to cost $244

million, yet considering sea-level rise in project design

is likely to reduce risks of more costly damages to the

road over the long term.69

North Carolina is also ranked as one of the top

recreational saltwater sportfishing states in the U.S.,

with $95.6 million in state and local tax revenues

generated in 2013.70 Rising seas will damage the coastal

habitats juvenile game fish need to mature, and the

fishing industry may suffer as a consequence

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge

and the Outer Banks

North Carolina’s Alligator River National Wildlife

Refuge is home to the only remaining wild population

of North American red wolves, a species once declared

extinct in the wild Unfortunately, the refuge is

extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise and may be lost

entirely, with the majority of the land lying only a foot

above sea level.71 Not only is sea-level rise threatening

the refuge, but in the event of a hurricane the chances

of parts of it washing away are high As salt water

continues to creep inland, pine forest will die off to be

replaced with low-lying shrubs, which in turn will be

replaced with saltwater marshes, which may then be

washed away into open water This loss of habitat poses

a serious threat to the red wolf population and other

wildlife that call the refuge home

Coastal ecosystems like this may be able to retreat

inland from the rising tides, but human development

such as roads or seawalls may hinder this ability

Removing these barriers and building natural buffers,

like oyster beds, may help reduce impacts on these

vulnerable ecosystems

In view of the refuge are North Carolina’s Outer Banks

The people who live on these islands depend on

revenue from tourism, and as the beaches, estuaries,

and lagoons that these islands protect are inundated

From a poll conducted by the University of Virginia, 86 percent of Virginia Beach residents said that sea- level rise is a very important issue

Oysters, blue crab, and striped bass are among the Bay’s most important resources.79 A 2008 study of sea-level rise impacts on coastal habitats in the Chesapeake Bay suggests that under a 27-inch rise in sea level, a scenario that is in the mid-range of what is projected to occur before the end of the century, much of Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay wetland habitat would decline.80,81

At the south end of the Bay, the 9,120-acre Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge provides outdoor recreation opportunities for the city of Virginia Beach, one of the biggest resort cities on the East Coast

The Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Plan identifies the American black duck, king rail, least bittern, and seaside sparrow as high priority species

in the refuge Because of the refuge’s position along the East Coast, both southern and northern species overlap to result in high biodiversity, and over 350 species of birds have been observed in the refuge.82 In addition to this, the refuge has over five miles of beach that loggerhead sea turtles use as nesting habitat at the northernmost limit of their range

experience sea-level rise From a poll conducted by

the University of Virginia, 86 percent of Virginia

Beach residents said that sea-level rise is a very

important issue.77

Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island

National Wildlife Refuge

The Chesapeake Bay has already experienced rising

seas, warmer water temperatures, and longer periods

of extreme weather.78 Over the last 100 years water

level in the bay has risen by nearly a foot, which is

greater than the global average due to the relatively

high rate of land subsidence in the region Much of the

Chesapeake Bay region will continue to face

higher-than average sea-level rise in the coming decades

Many of the bay’s coastal habitats are at risk from

the impacts of sea-level rise, as is the region’s natural

resource-based economy Over 500 million pounds of

seafood come from the Bay every year In Maryland and

Virginia this drives $3.39 billion in sales, $890 million

in income, and almost 34,000 jobs in the local economy

Piping plover and chicks Photo: Kaiti Titherington/USFWS.

the greatest density of breeding bald eagles north of Florida In addition to this, the Delmarva fox squirrel, which was recently removed from the endangered species list, has a substantial population in the forested regions of the refuge.87

According to the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service, Blackwater already has lost nearly 5,000 acres of wetland to rising seas

The refuge’s marshland provides critical spawning habitat for migratory fish and commercial shellfish.88Situated along the Atlantic Flyway, Blackwater provides

an important resting ground for migrating birds In addition to this, marsh species like the saltmarsh sparrow, seaside sparrow, clapper rail, and black rail depend on Blackwater The economic value of Blackwater, based on ecosystem services, is nearly

Maryland

Maryland is known for its

3,100 miles of tidally-influenced

shoreline along the Atlantic coast

and Chesapeake Bay Taking localized factors

such as land subsidence into consideration, the rate

of sea-level rise in the region is expected to be greater

than the global average.83 Under a scenario of three feet

of sea-level rise, which is consistent with mid-range

projections for the middle to the end of the century,

most of Maryland’s tidal wetlands could be lost and

over 200 square miles of the state’s land could be

inundated with seawater.84

Maryland’s coastal bays and the surrounding

communities support a population of 40,000 residents

and attract millions of visitors every year The

waterfront property value around Maryland’s bays is

valued at $360 million In addition, wildlife viewing is

valued at $45 million annually at non-market values

and fishing and shellfishing are valued at $3.3 million.85

Assateague Island and Blackwater National

Wildlife Refuge

Along the Chesapeake Bay, the 27,000-acre Blackwater

National Wildlife Refuge protects more than one third

of Maryland’s tidal wetlands These wetlands provide

a critical buffer for inland communities, including the

town of Cambridge.86 Blackwater has been designated

internationally as an Important Bird Area containing

Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (Dark gray/green represents water.) Credit: USFWS.

Bald eagle fishing in the Blackwater River Photo: Joseph Glitter.

causes them to constantly shift, and in the case of Assateague, it means the island is moving slowly towards the coast and southward Unlike other barrier islands in Florida and New Jersey, Assateague has little infrastructure and managers have chosen to work with the shifting sands instead of attempting to keep the island in its current place As one of the first national park units to account for climate change and sea-level rise in its management plans, Assateague offers an example of how the natural processes of shifting barrier islands can be utilized to improve resilience.92

$390 million,89 making it an important component of

Maryland’s economy As sea-level rises, this wildlife

refuge is placed at risk

In addition to the Chesapeake Bay and Blackwater

Refuge, Maryland also boasts Assateague Island, a

island with over 37 miles of beaches.90 This island

draws in 2 million tourists annually, which many local

towns rely on as a source of revenue.91 The island is

famous for its wild horses and “ghost forests,” stands

of drowned pine trees The nature of barrier islands

Seaside sparrow Photo: Matt Tillett.

Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge

Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, a part of Delaware’s extensive wetland habitat, is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and more intense coastal storms Prime Hook was severely damaged during Hurricane Sandy in 2012 when the storm widened a passage in the wildlife refuge’s protective dune system

Prior to restoration efforts, the 4,000-acre network

of marshland had slowly been transformed into open water and the protective beach had receded by about

500 feet.100 When Hurricane Sandy hit the refuge the protective beach was breached in multiple places, flooding the marshes and communities around the refuge Farm land was also flooded with salt water, damaging valuable agricultural land.101

To improve the resilience of Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, through the Department of the Interior, awarded $39.8 million102 to the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service This effort aims to restore beaches and dunes, improving coastal resilience along the Delaware Bay and providing critical habitat for federally listed species

Delaware

Delaware has 381 miles of shoreline, much of

it around Delaware Bay As a state with the

lowest mean elevation in the nation,93

Delaware’s shoreline and the associated

beaches and coastal wetlands are particularly

vulnerable to sea-level rise.94 Unfortunately,

Delaware’s famous beaches are eroding at

a rate of nearly 3.3 feet annually.95 A

recent climate change vulnerability

assessment for the state suggests that, under a

potential sea-level rise scenario of 4.9 feet, the state

could lose 11% of its current land area.96 Along the

shore of the Delaware Bay, beaches are eroding at a

staggering rate of nearly 33 feet per year.97 As coastal

beaches and dunes are eroded, Delaware’s wetland

habitat loses critical protection from rising water and

storm surges

According to a 2010 study by the University of

Delaware, the Delaware Estuary contributes over $10

billion in annual revenue to surrounding states from

economic activity related to recreation, water quality

and supply, hunting and fishing, forests, agriculture, and

parks Within the state of Delaware, employment from

the estuary, both direct and indirect, supports over

10,500 jobs.98

Credit: USFWS.

a 2015 poll showed that 79 percent of delaware residents say immediate action should be taken on climate and 72 percent say immediate action should

be taken on sea-level rise.99

Beach between Prime Hook community and

Slaughter Beach before Hurricane Sandy.

Beach between Prime Hook community and Slaughter Beach after Hurricane Sandy on October 31, 2012.

Even Inland Ecosystems Can Be

Affected by Sea-Level Rise:

The Case of Pennsylvania

while pennsylvania is not a coastal state, it is still experiencing

the impacts of sea-level rise the Delaware Estuary flows

into the southeast part of the state, and as sea level rises,

cities and communities along delaware River tidal areas,

including philadelphia, will be at risk the U.S national climate

assessment reports that sea level in philadelphia has already

risen by 1.2 feet in 100 years one 2010 study estimates that

156,000 people in Philadelphia (or 10% of the city’s population)

will be impacted by high tides within the next century as waters

rise.103,104 pennsylvania will also see erosion and changes in

salinity along its waterways these changes will especially be felt

in the state’s freshwater wetlands.105

John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge

as part of the Delaware River estuary, John Heinz national Wildlife

Refuge offers a quiet natural area in the city of philadelphia the 282

acres of the refuge protects the largest remaining fragment of freshwater

tidal marsh in the state while some tidal marshes may accumulate enough

sediment or else shift inland to outpace rising water levels, John Heinz

national wildlife Refuge is surrounded by the city of philadelphia and likely

has limited ability to adapt Salt water is also creeping closer to the refuge,

jeopardizing plant, animal, and microbial communities that may not be able to

adjust to changes in salinity.106

located along the atlantic flyway, the refuge provides critical resting ground for

over 300 species of migratory birds visitor recreation expenditures accounted

for $1.4 million in 2011.107 State endangered species such as the least bittern and

yellow-crowned night heron depend on marsh habitat in the refuge and are likely to

be impacted by sea-level rise.108

Yellow-crowned night heron Photo: James Diedrick