Tài liệu Internet Trends March 18, 2008 pptx

2006 2006 Online Global 2006 Online Global Sales While Only 13% of Top 15 Online Retailers are Internet Pure-Plays, Biggest $ Grower = Amazon.com * Denotes ‘Internet Retailer’ estimate

Internet Trends

March 18, 2008 mary.meeker@ms.com / david.joseph@ms.com / anant.thaker@ms.com

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3 Changes in Usage Patterns

0 5,000,000

Consumer Information Technology – Advancing Faster Than Enterprise

Source: Interview with Vauhini Vara, ‘The Wall Street Journal’, 3/18/08

Fifteen years ago, enterprise technology was higher-quality than consumer technology That's not true anymore It

used to be that you used enterprise technology because

you wanted uptime, security and speed None of those

things are as good in enterprise software anymore [as they are in some consumer software].

Douglas Merrill

Google Chief Information Officer, 3/18/08

Alexa Global Traffic – Relative Page Views

Source: Alexa Global Traffic as of 3/12/08

Worldwide Online Category Growth vs Penetration

Social Networking – Fast Growth + Low Penetration

Visitor Growth by Category (1/07-1/08)

Social Networking – Significant Share Gains of Internet Traffic

Rank Web site

ebay.com amazon.com microsoft.com

myspace.com

google.co.uk

aol.com go.com

Traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from Alexa Toolbar users and is a combined measure of

page views / users (geometric mean of the two quantities averaged over time)

Rank Web site

2008 (2)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

yahoo.com

youtube.com live.com

google.com myspace.com

facebook.com

msn.com

hi5.com wikipedia.org orkut.com

Alexa Global Traffic Rankings

(1) Rankings as of 12/31/05, excludes Microsoft Passport; (2) Rankings as of 3/12/08

Source: Alexa Global Traffic Rankings, Morgan Stanley Research

Worldwide Share of Online Time (1)

Source: (1) comScore ‘Digital World – State of the Internet’ 3/08; (2) comScore global 1/08

101MM (1) +305%

#4 site in global minutes; 67MM+ active users; >50% of active users return daily; 20K applications + 95% of Facebook members have used at least one (1,4)

276MM (2) +61%

$1.67 annualized revenue per registered user (+9% Y/Y) on peer-to-peer network; 1.6B Skype Out minutes (+10% Y/Y); 11.9B Skype- to-Skype minutes (+25% Y/Y) (2)

57MM (2) +16%

Payment volume +35% Y/Y; On-eBay / eBay payment volume +17% / +66% Y/Y (to 44% of TPV); Average transaction size of

off-$68.88 (+10% Y/Y) (2)

Source: (1) comScore global 1/08; (2) eBay CQ4, Morgan Stanley Research; (3) YouTube; (4) Facebook

11 Social Networking –

Changing the Way People Think About ‘Presence’

Internet + Personal Sources = Most Importance Sources of

Information…Essence of a Social Network

Facebook – Rapid User / Usage Growth

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08

Total Unique Visitors (MM) Total Minutes (B)

Facebook Global Traffic

Source: comScore global 1/08, Facebook 3/08, Morgan Stanley Research

• 101MM visitors +305% Y/Y (67MM+ active users), 20B minutes (#4 globally behind Yahoo!, Live,

and YouTube), +363% Y/Y; 250K new registrations per day since 1/07; >50% of active users return daily (Facebook 3/08, comScore 1/08)

• 55K+ regional / work-related / collegiate / high school networks (>50% outside of college); Fastest

growing demographic is those 25+ years old; 85% market share of 4-year US universities (Facebook 3/08)

• 14MM+ photos uploaded daily; 6MM+ active user groups on site (Facebook 3/08)

• Top non-US active users: UK (8MM+), Canada (7MM+), Turkey, Australia, France, Sweden,

Norway, Columbia, and South Africa (Facebook 3/08)

Facebook – Top Applications

• In 5/07, Facebook opened its platform to third-party developers, allowing anyone to create widgets for use on Facebook pages

• 20K applications, 859MM installations, 34MM usages per day since APIs opened – may be

unprecedented ramp (adonomics.com 3/08)

• Early to understand that individuals had the ability to innovate faster than it could, while users would govern quality / value as they customized their profiles

Super Wall Top Friends FunWall SuperPoke!

Movies Likeness Video Hug Me iLike Quizzes

Company RockYou!

Slide Slide Slide Flixster RockYou!

Facebook RockYou!

iLike N/A (2)

28MM (8%) 26MM (7%) 25MM (9%) 21MM (2%) 20MM (3%) 16MM (2%) 16MM (1) 13MM (2%) 12MM (3%) 12MM (1%)

(1) Active user data unavailable; (2) E Diep / J Winterhalter; Source: adonomics.com 3/12/08

• Facebook offers a social network that is both standardized + self-controlled / flexible – a highly

personalized first-stop portal for online connectivity – users can program their pages with growing

number of drag-and-drop applications (aka widgets)

• Users like the ability to express themselves + connect with friends in a protected environment where they know / trust people in their network + don’t feel exploited / spammed by intrusive ads

Source: MySpace, Facebook

Less instrusive ads

‘Friends’ section more prominent Personalized News Feed

Facebook –

‘Presence’ Via Mobiles 24x7

Source: Facebook; C Messina on flickr

User restaurant rating entered

Facebook prompt…

…Appears on Facebook profile / News Feed Becoming a ‘fan’

appears on News /

Facebook Ads – Monetizing Word of Mouth / Conversations

Free 62%

• In Rainbows ‘pay what you want’ online

release – higher profit to the band than traditional record?

• Ghosts I-IV online release – 800K

Music – Monetizing Word of Mouth

Global Downloads (2)

Source: (1) Billboard 3/14/07, screenshots from Nine Inch Nails website; (2) comScore study 11/5/07, screenshots from Radiohead website

19 Widget-ization + Component-ization of Web –

Users in Control of What They Want When They Want It

Not Your Father’s ‘Widget’

Source: ReadWriteWeb, RockYou!, Yahoo!, Weather Channel, Google, Amazon.com, Facebook

A Web widget can be best described as a mini application that can add

functionality to your web page, blog, social profile, etc If you find a widget that you like, you simply copy and paste some code and add it to the HTML of your web

page Photo galleries, news, videos, advertising, mp3 players and pregnancy

countdown tickers! You name it, there is probably a widget that does it.

David Lenehan, ReadWriteWeb

Rock You –

‘Super Wall’ for Facebook

Yahoo! – Finance for iPhone

Weather Channel – Forecast for iGoogle Amazon.com –

‘Giver’ for Facebook

iGoogle + Yahoo! Mobile

Source: Google, Yahoo!

Search

Gmail

Movie showtimes

YouTube videos

Weather

News Maps

The BBC! –

@ www.bbc.com + Facebook + YouTube…

Source: BBC

In Recession, Measurability + Transparency + Customer

Satisfaction May Be More Important Than Ever

Personalization + Targeting Improvements –

Driving Material Revenue

What other customers are thinking

What other customers are buying

What other customers are doing

What other customers are saying

Fast Gainers by Quarter - 2007

Source: Google Year-End Zeitgeist, 2007

Fastest Rising (global)

10 anna nicole smith

Fastest Rising (US)

Lots of Servers…Lots of Interactions…Lots of Data

Source: The Financial Times 1/5/08

Google Data Center – The Dalles, Oregon

Still Early Stage & 66% Y/Y Google Query Growth (CQ4)

% of New Online Customers for Online Retailers / Marketing Spend Mix (2005)

1% 3%

Organ

ic t raf

fic

Catalogs Aff ili

Emai

l to

p rosp ecti

ng lists

Trad itiona

l po rta l dea ls

New

p or

ta l d eal

Amazon.com – Continues to Gain Online + Offline Share

~23ppts

(1) Adjusted for eBay by adding eBay US gross merchandise volume and subtracting eBay US transaction revenue;

Source: Amazon.com (CQ4:07), US Dept of Commerce (CQ4:07), Morgan Stanley Research

2006

2006 Online Global

2006 Online Global Sales

While Only 13% of Top 15 Online Retailers are

Internet Pure-Plays, Biggest $ Grower = Amazon.com

* Denotes ‘Internet Retailer’ estimate; Source: Internet Retailer Report (2006)

30 Video

• YouTube - 258MM unique global visitors, +94% Y/Y, 25B minutes, +146% Y/Y(1)

; other video distribution models: Hulu, Fancast, veoh, Joost, Sling Media, VUDU…

• YouTube accounted for 56% of unique US video viewers + 33% of videos watched

Total Unique Visitors (MM) Total Minutes (B)

YouTube Global Traffic

Source: (1) comScore global 1/08; (2) comScore Video Metrix (US) 1/08, Morgan Stanley Research

Ongoing Traction of Online Video

YouTube Content – Pro, Semi-Pro, Amateur + Combos

Source: Google, YouTube 2/08

YouTube – The New Portal(s)?

Source: Google, YouTube 3/08

News & Politics - Most Viewed

• ‘Organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful’ – in the most effective

way for high customer satisfaction – sort by most active / discussed / recent / responded / viewed / etc More / more content providers should get on board, after all, users are voting it’s what they want There should be ways to monetize the litigation away…

Sports - Most Viewed

Online Content – Coming from Anywhere / Anytime,

BTW, Try to Find Dan Aykroyd’s ‘Bass-O-Matic’ Online

Source: Avenue A | Razorfish 2008 Digital Outlook Report, YouTube

There's a sea change occurring in creative circles these days - or maybe it could

be called an identity crisis What does is mean when the star-studded Golden

Globes ceremony gets cancelled because the Writers Guild of America wants a

share of Internet revenue? When one of the top spots of 2007 was filmed by an

amateur for $27.00? When an obscure Colorado blender company Blendtec

-can create a viral sensation without even hiring an agency?

Joseph Crump

Avenue A | Razorfish Executive Creative Director

• Plasma Screen TV – HD Quality Event

• PC Screen – Fantasy, Stats, and Injury Reports

• Mobile Screen – Highlights, Scores

Thursday Kickoff

Patriots vs.

Colts

NFL Sundays

TV + Internet + Mobile (CBS) – Complimentary Platforms

2007 Football Season

Source: CBS Sports Interactive

36 Monetization

Newspapers include Classifieds Promotions ($116B) include: incentives ($30B), promotional products ($27B),

point-of-purchase ($19B), specialty printing ($9B), coupons ($7B), premiums ($7B), promotional licensing ($7B), promotional

fulfillment ($6B), product sampling ($2B), and in-store marketing ($2B) Households may use multiple advertising mediums.

15

61 44 27

21

20 16

7

107 115 56

56

114 112 80

71

113 114 114

$1,032 1,011 818

260

532 390 327

Ad Spending / Household ($)

Medium

Total

Average

$469 47

$4,774

477

US Internet Ad Spend =

$288 Per Home vs $818 for Newspapers?

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, IAB, Jupiter Research, McCann-Erickson, Morgan Stanley Research

7%

5 -7

-14

4 -5 6

26

-3 1

7 3%

Y/Y Growth

Google + Yahoo! = ~61% of US Online Ad Revenue,

Other Players Would Have Grown ~14% Y/Y in CQ4:07 but Grew ~20% Owing

to Google / Yahoo! Affiliate Assist

• Google generated $4.8B in gross ad revenue in CQ4; it

• Yahoo! generated $1.6B in gross ad revenue in CQ4; it

Google + Yahoo! Share Significant Portion of Revenue with

Partners + Affiliates

Source: (1) Google gross Advertising revenue, Morgan Stanley Research; (2) Yahoo! gross Marketing Services revenue, Morgan Stanley Research; (3) Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) / PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) Internet Advertising Revenue Reports (calculated as difference between total IAB US ad revenue and sum of

Google, Yahoo! gross ad revenue), Morgan Stanley Research

Ad Inventory Monetization – Upside Potential Though Lots of

‘New’ Inventory (Social Networking + Video) to Process

Source: (1) ZenithOptimedia C2007E, 10/07; (2) Denotes net revenue estimates (ex-TAC); (3) Yahoo! reported 477MM unique users (+14% Y/Y) at the end of

CQ3, excl Yahoo! Japan We use comScore global data for consistent comparisons across companies Note: comScore data is based on ages 15+;

comScore global 9/07, ZenithOptimedia, Google, Yahoo!, Time Warner, Microsoft, eBay, Morgan Stanley Research

CQ3E Annualized Global Ad Rev per User

Total Minutes (MM)

Total Pages Viewed (MM) Unique Users

(000s)

Advertising Age US Internet Advertising –

Companies With >$50MM in Spending, 2006

Source: Advertising Age , Morgan Stanley Research

AT&T $169 $58 189% -#4 behind Network TV, Newspaper & Radio -Shift to Internet from Newspapers.

-Shift to Cable TV, Network TV & Magazines from Internet.

Walt Disney 133 91 47 -#6 behind Network TV, Cable TV, Newspapers, Magazines & Radio

-Shift from Newspapers & Network TV to Internet.

Verizon 124 144 (14) -#5 behind Newspapers, Network TV, Cable TV & Radio

-Shift from Newspapers to Internet.

General Motors 118 103 15 -#5 behind Network TV, Magazines, Cable TV & Newspapers

-Shift from Newspapers & Cable TV to Internet.

Ford Motor 99 55 80 -#5 behind Network TV, Magazines, Cable TV & Newspapers

-Shift from Newspapers to Internet.

Time Warner 91 168 (46) -#6 behind Network TV, Cable TV, Magazines, Newspapers & Radio -Shift from Internet to all others.

-Shift to Newspapers & Outdoor from Internet.

American Express 81 29 180 -#4 behind Magazines, Network TV & Cable TV

-Shift to Internet from magazines & network TV

Sony 74 44 66 -#5 behind Network TV, Cable TV, Newspapers & Magazines

-Shift from Newspapers & Magazines to Internet.

Wal-Mart 61 34 79 -#4 behind Network TV, Cable TV & Magazines

-Shift to Internet from Network TV.

General Electric 61 47 28 -#6 behind Network TV, Newspapers, Cable TV, Radio & Magazines -Shift from Network TV to Internet. Target 57 37 54 -#5 behind Network TV, Newspapers, Magazines & Cable TV

-Shift from Newspapers & Magazines to Internet.

News Corp 56 48 16 -#6 behind Network TV, Cable TV, Radio, Newspapers & Magazines

-Shift from Network TV, Radio & Magazines to Internet.

Toyota Motor 56 33 67 -#4 behind Network TV, Magazines & cable TV -Shift to Internet from Cable TV & Magazines.

Procter & Gamble 54 34 61 -#5 behind Network TV, Cable TV, Magazines & Newspapers

-Shift from Cable TV & radio to Internet.

Capital One Financial 53 33 61 -#3 behind Network TV & Cable TV

-Shift to Internet from Network TV & Cable TV.