Dự báo phụ tải sử dụng mạng fuzzy wavelet

---o0o--- Predicted power problem plays a crucial role and decisive for the economy and our human life.. Power forecasting in the future based on the past observations, it serve for plan

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NHI M V LU N V N TH C S

H tên h c viên: V TH NG C MAI MSHV:10180089

D BÁO PH T I S D NG M NG FUZZY WAVELET

II NHI M V VÀ N I DUNG:

- Tìm hi u m ng Fuzzy wavelet

- ng d ng m ng Fuzzy wavelet cho bào toán d báo ph t i

TP H Chí Minh, Tr m Gò V p

III NGÀY GIAO NHI M V : 02/07/2012

IV NGÀY HOÀN THÀNH NHI M V : 21/06/2013

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-o0o -

trong su t quá trình th c hi n đ tài và luôn ân c n ch b o cho Em nh ng h ng gi i

tình d y d , truy n th cho em nh ng ki n th c chuyên môn c ng nh các kinh

giúp cho em h c h i và b sung thêm nh ng ki n th c còn thi u

đ c s ch b o c a th y cô và s đóng góp c a b n bè đ đ tài lu n v n này đ c hoàn thi n h n

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-o0o -

đ nh đ i v i n n kinh t và đ i s ng con ng i chúng ta D báo đi n n ng trong

ph i lúc nào c ng có th áp d ng vào hoàn c nh hi n t i đã thay đ i r t nhi u so v i

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-o0o -

Predicted power problem plays a crucial role and decisive for the economy and our human life Power forecasting in the future based on the past observations, it serve for planning the network resource in the electricity system and for regulating system (having available plans in order to meet the load) If the power forecasting is not performed or not done correctly, too many false, we can fall into power shortage for using, or excess energy leads to negative consequences for the economy and influence

electricity market

Currently, there are many methods for forecasting activities, mostly based on the experience of the past to predict the future Therefore, the result is not feasible because it is not always applicable to the current situation, but has changed a lot compared to before

The analysis and evaluation the forecasting methods of load demand to find out what the common features and distinctions can be applied to the specific conditions is very urgent issue for the development of qwt"eqwpvt{Óu""gngevtkekv{"net, especially in the

context of the economic sectors in Vietnam are getting major shifts

In this thesis, the forecasting method using Fuzzy-Wavelet net was applied to predict the graph of the daily load in the Ho Chi Minh City area The load data and

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rj亥p" v穎" e栄c" p„" n " o瓜v" e員r" ik " vt鵜" ( , ( ))xoF x vtqpi" 8„" x FŒ và oFn " pj" z衣: [0,1]

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èpj"z衣"oF 8逢嬰e"i丑k"n "j o"vjw瓜e"e栄c"v壱r"o運"H0"V壱r"mkpj"8k吋p"Z"8逢嬰e"i丑k"n "v壱r"p隠p"e栄c"v壱r"o運"F0"F衣pi"8欝"vj鵜"e栄c"vjw瓜e"e„"o泳e"ejw{吋p"8鰻k"vw{院p"v pj"8逢嬰e"ejq"荏"j·pj"ucw<

F (x)

0 1

h n "ik "vt鵜"pj臼"pj医v"vtqpi"v医v"e違"e e"ik "vt鵜"ej員p"vt‒p"e栄c"j o"oF( )x 0"O瓜v"v壱r"

o運"x噂k" v"pj医v"o瓜v"rj亥p"v穎"e„"8瓜"rj映"vjw瓜e"d茨pi"3"8逢嬰e"i丑k"n "v壱r"o運"ej pj"v逸e"v泳e"n "h?3."pi逢嬰e"n衣k"v壱r"o運"x噂k"h>1 8逢嬰e"i丑k"n "v壱r"o運"mj»pi"ej pj"v逸e0

4040404"Ok隠p"z e"8鵜pj"x "ok隠p"vkp"e壱{"e栄c"v壱r"o運<

A鵜pj"pij c"<"Ok隠p"z e"8鵜pj"e栄c"v壱r"o運"H."8鵜pj"pij c"vt‒p"v壱r"p隠p"Z."m "jk羽w"

U"n "v壱r"eqp"e栄a X thõa mãn :

Trang 28

Vtqpi" vj詠e" v院" vj逢運pi" u穎" f映pi" sw{" v逸e" j嬰r" vj pj" OKP" jq員e" RTQF." x "vj逢運pi" u穎" f映pi" rjﬁr" j嬰r" vj pj" e e" v壱r" o運" vjgq" nw壱v" OCZ" jq員e" v鰻pi"Lukasiewicz

A吋"z e"8鵜pj"j o"vjw瓜e"oR'( ) y e栄c"ik "vt鵜"8亥w"tc"TÓ"e栄c"o瓜v"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"e„"

P"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj"T1, R2.È.TN rj違k"8逢嬰e"vj詠e"jk羽p"vjgq"e e"d逢噂e<

Trang 29

Nw壱v" j嬰r" vj pj" ocz-OKP" n " v‒p" i丑k" e栄c" o»" j·pj" oc" vt壱p" T" e栄c" nw壱v" j嬰r"

vj pj"o "ik "vt鵜"dk院p"o運"e栄c"p„"8逢嬰e"z e"8鵜pj"vjgq"sw{"v逸e"ocz-MIN

Zgv"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"UKUQ"ej雨"e„"o瓜v"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj"<

:

Vt逢噂e"vk‒p"jck"j o"vjw瓜e"oA( )x và oB( )x 8逢嬰e"t運k"t衣e"j„c"x噂k"v亥p"u嘘"t運k"t衣e"

8栄"pj臼"8吋"mj»pi"o医v"ik "vt鵜"vj»pi"vkp0"X "f映"jck"jk院p"z.{"e„"oA( )x và oB( )x 8逢嬰e"t運k"t衣e j„c"v衣k"7"8k吋o<

} 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

x Œ x x x x x

Trang 30

0

0 0.5

1 0.5

0

0 0.5 0.5 0.5

V逢挨pi"泳pi"x噂k"e e"rj亥p"v穎"vtqpi"j pi"x=x2

E ej"dk宇w"fk宇p"p {"t医v"vjw壱p"vk羽p"ejq"xk羽e"z e"8鵜pj"j o"vjw瓜e"e栄c"v p"jk羽w"tc"f逢噂k"f衣pi"pj¤p"oc"vt壱p0"X "f映"泳pi"x噂k rj亥p"v穎"8亥w"x q"x0= x2 ta có vector:

u胤"e„"f衣pi"aT ?*a a1, 2, ,am+vtqpi"8„"ej雨"e„ o瓜v"rj亥p"v穎"ai fw{"pj医v"e„"ej雨"u嘘"K"

n "ej雨"u嘘"e栄c"x0vtqpi"8„"X e„"ik "vt鵜"d茨pi"3."e e"rj亥p"v穎"e p"n衣k"8隠w"d茨pi"20

Trang 31

O瓜v"e ej"mj e"8挨p"ik違p"j挨p"8吋"v pj"oB'( )y n "vc"u胤"v pj"H ?oA( )x0 泳pi"x噂k"

ik " vt鵜" t " 8亥w" x q" z0 ucw" 8„" vj詠e" jk羽p" sw{" v逸e" j嬰r" vj pj" OKP" <"

E e"d逢噂e"z¤{"f詠pi"v逢挨pi"v詠"pj逢"vt逢運pi"j嬰r"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"oax-OKP"pj逢pi"ej雨"mj e"荏"e e"ik "vt鵜"e栄c"e e"rj亥p"v穎"e栄c"oc"vt壱p"T"fq"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"ocz-PROD

v pj"e e"ik "vt鵜"p {"vjgq"v ej"e栄c"ik "vt鵜"j o"vjw瓜e"dk院p"x q"x "ik "vt鵜"j o"vjw瓜e"dk院p"tc0

Trang 32

x

1 0.5

0

0 0.5

1 0.5

0

0 0.25 0.5 0.25

}

Trang 33

- R運i r衣c hóa mi隠p" z e" 8鵜nh hàm thu瓜c oA1( 1),x oA2( 2), ,x oAd(xd),oB( )y

t鰻 h嬰r"f"8k吋m m磯u thu瓜c mi隠p"z e"8鵜nh c栄a các hàm thu瓜c oAi( ) xi v噂i

k?3.4.È.f Ch鰯ng h衣n m瓜t vector có giá tr鵜 t " 8亥u vào

8亥u vào theo nguyên t逸c :

Mj»pi"pj逢"nw壱t h嬰p thành có c医u trúc SISO, lu壱t h嬰p thành R c栄a c医u trúc MISO không th吋 bi宇u di宇p"f逢噂i d衣ng ma tr壱p"o "p„"8逢嬰c bi宇u di宇n thành m瓜t n逢噂i trong không gian d+1 chi隠u

- Hàm thu瓜c oA( ) x 8逢嬰c r運i r衣e"j„c"vj pj"o"8k吋m:

} 1, 2, ,

x ? x x xm

Trang 34

n "o瓜v"j o"vjw瓜e"oC'( ) z e栄c"dk院p"o運"8亥w"tc"EÓ0

Dk吋w"fk宇p"v医v"e違"*ozp+"j o"e栄c"T trong không gian ^3vj·"T"u胤"n "o瓜v"n逢噂k"5"ejk隠w."vtqpi"8„"v衣k"o厩k"8k吋o"p¿v"vt‒p"n逢噂k"n "o瓜v"ik "vt鵜"oR( , ) x y

4040606"Vjw壱v"vq p"z e"8鵜pj"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"mﬁr"ocz-MIN, max-PROD:

Vtqpi"vj詠e"v院." v"e„"d瓜"o運"p q"ej雨"n o"xk羽e"x噂k"o瓜v"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj"o "vj»pi"vj逢運pi"x噂k"pjk隠w"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj."jc{"e p"i丑k"n "o瓜v"v壱r"e e"nw壱v"8k隠w"mjk吋p"Tk0"Rj亥p"p {"u胤"vt·pj"d {"rj逢挨pi"rj r"nk‒p"m院v"e医e"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj"Tk

x噂k"pjcw" x "swc"8„"p‒w"8逢嬰e"#"pij c"e栄c" m "jk羽w"ocz"vtqpi"v‒p" i丑k" ocz-MIN, max-PROD

Trang 35

1) R運i r衣c hóa X t衣k"o"8k吋m x1, x2.È.zm và Y t衣k"p"8k吋m y1, y2.È.{n

2) Z e"8鵜nh các vector oAk và oBk v噂i k =1, 2, , p :

Trang 36

V泳e"n "Hw||{"j„c"e e"8k吋o"t運k"t衣e"e栄c"Z"x "[0

* +ij. k , 1,

k Ak Bk

R ? o o ? r i ? m và j ? 1, n Vtqpi"8„"rjﬁr"pj¤p"8逢嬰e"vjc{"vj院"d茨pi"rjﬁr"n医{"e詠e"vk吋w"j o"okp"u穎"f映pi"piw{‒p"v逸e"ocz-MIN

4040609"Vjw壱v"vq p"z¤{"f詠pi"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"e„"pjk隠w"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj"ejq" e医w"vt¿e"OKUQ<

Vjw壱v"vq p"p {"n "u詠"m院v"j嬰r"e栄c"vjw壱v"vq p"z¤{"f詠pi"nw壱v j嬰r"vj pj"o運"e„"pjk隠w"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj"x "vjw壱v"vq p"z e"8鵜pj"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"8挨p"e„"e医w"vt¿e"OKUQ"8«"8逢嬰e"vt·pj"d {"荏"o映e"505040

Nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"TÓ"u胤"8逢嬰e"z e"8鵜p"vjgq"vjw壱v"vq p"z¤{"f詠pi"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"e„"pjk隠w"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj"<"R R ? ̌ ̌ ̌1 R2 Rp

Trang 37

404060:"Vjw壱v"vq p"z e"8鵜pj"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"uwo-MID, sum-PROD:

Mk吋w"nk‒p"m院v"pjk隠w"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj."jc{"e p"i丑k"n "nw壱v"8k隠w"mjk吋p"Tm."d鰯pi"vq p"v穎"OR vjgq"e»pi"vj泳e"<

E„"pjk隠w"e ej" mj逸e"rj映e"pj逢嬰e"8k吋o"p {0" O瓜v"vtqpi"pj英pi"rj逢挨pi"rj r"rj鰻"dk院p"n "u穎"f映pi"rjﬁr"j嬰r"vj pj"Nwmcukgyke|"<

e ej"z e"8鵜pj"荏"vt‒p0

40407"Ik違k"o運<

O瓜v"d瓜"o運"v鰻pi"j嬰r." ejq"f́"x噂k"o瓜v"jc{"pjk隠w"o羽pj"8隠"j嬰r"vj pj."e pi"ej逢c"vj吋" r"f映pi"x·"8亥w"tc"nw»p"n "ik "vt鵜"o運"DÓ0"O瓜v"d瓜"o運"jq p"ej雨pj"e亥p"rj違k"e„"vj‒o"mj¤w"ik違k"o運"*sw "vtkpj"t "j„c"v壱r"o運"8亥w"tc"DÓ+0

Ik違k"o運"n "sw "vt·pj"z e"8鵜pj"o瓜v"ik "vt鵜"t "{Ó"p q"8„"e„"vj吋"ej医r"pj壱p"8逢嬰e"v瑛"j o"vjw瓜e"oB'( ) y e栄c"ik "vt鵜"v壱r"o運"DÓ"*v壱r"o運+0"E„"jck"rj逢挨pi"rj r"ik違k"o運"

ej pj"n "rj逢挨pi"rj r"e詠e"8衣k"x "rj逢挨pi"rj r"8k吋o"vt丑pi"v¤o0

Trang 39

Uck"n‒ej"e栄c"dc"ik "vt鵜"t "z e"8鵜pj"vjgq"piw{‒p"n#"vtwpi"d·pj."piw{‒p"n#"e壱p"trák"x "piw{‒p"n#"e壱p"rj違k"u胤"e pi"n噂p"p院w"8瓜"vj c"o«p"J"e栄c"nw壱v"o運"8k隠w"mjk吋p"sw{院v"8鵜pj"e pi"pj臼0

O瓜v"x医p"8隠"8員v"tc"n "{Ó"u胤"8逢嬰e"ej丑p"pj逢"vj院"p q"mjk"I"mj»pi"rj k"n "o瓜v"ok隠p"nk‒p"vj»pi."v泳e"n "mjk"e„"pjk隠w"nw壱v"o運"j嬰r"vj pj."e„"épi"o瓜v"8 r"泳pi"x q"cho nj英pi" ik "vt鵜"sw{院v"8鵜pj" mj e"pjcw"e栄c" dk院p"pi»p"pi英"8亥w"tc0"A嘘k" x噂k"e e"vt逢運pi" j嬰r" pj逢" x壱{." vj»pi" vj逢運pi" o瓜v" mjq違p" eqp" nk‒p" vj»pi" vtqpi" I" u胤" 8逢嬰e"ej丑p"n o"mjq違p"nk‒p"vj»pi"e„"o泳e"逢w"vk‒p"ecq"pj医v"<

( )

B S B S

y y dyy

y dy

o o

Ð

V瑛"e»pi"vj泳e"vt‒p"ejq"rjﬁr"z e"8鵜pj"ik "vt鵜"{Ó"x噂k"u詠"vjco"ikc"e栄c"v医v"e違"e e"v壱r"o運"8亥w"tc"e栄c"o丑k"nw壱v"8k隠w"mjk吋p"o運"o瓜v"e ej"d·pj"8鰯pi"x "ej pj"z e."vw{"pjk‒p"n衣k"mj»pi"ejq"vj医{"8逢嬰e"8瓜"vj c"o«p"e栄c"nw壱v"o運"sw{院v"8鵜pj"x "vj運k"ikcp"

v pj" n¤w0" Piq k" tc" o瓜v" vtqpi" pj英pi" pj逢嬰e" 8k吋o" e荏" d違p" e栄c" rj逢挨pi" rj r" 8k吋o"vt丑pi"v¤o"n "ik "vt鵜"{Ó"z e"8鵜pj"8逢嬰e"e„"vj吋"n衣k"e„"8瓜"rj映"vjw瓜e pj臼"pj医v vj壱o"ej "d茨pi"20"Vì x壱y 8吋"vt pj"pj英pi"vt逢運pi"j嬰r"pj逢"vj院."mjk"8鵜pj"pij c"j o"vjw瓜e"ejq"

Trang 40

Hình 2.9: IkＶk"oぜ"dｊpi"rj⇔￢pi"rj r"8kあo"vtがpi"v¤o0

4040708"Rj逢挨pi"rj r"8k吋o"vt丑pi"v¤o"ejq"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj"uwo-MIN:

Ik違"u穎"e„"s"nw壱v"8k隠w"mjk吋p"8逢嬰e"vtk吋p"mjck0"X壱{"vj·"o厩k o瓜v"ik "vt鵜"o運"DÓ"v衣k"8亥w"tc"e栄c"d瓜"o運"u胤"n "v鰻pi"e栄c"s"ik "vt鵜"o運"8亥w"tc"e栄c"v瑛pi"nw壱v"j嬰r"vj pj0"M "jk羽w"e e"ik "vt鵜"o運"8亥w"tc"e栄c"nw壱v"o運"vj泳"m"n "oB k' ( ) y x噂k"m?3."4.È.s"vj·"x噂k"sw{"v逸e"uwo-OKP."j o"vjw瓜e"oB k' ( ) y s胤"n <

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