ALABAMA: AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE
Source: American Climate Prospectus
100 95
89 92 110
86 83 80 77 74 70 50
Average Summer Temperature (°F)
2040–2059
2020–2039 2080-2099
Rising temperatures will also affect Alabama’s wider economy. Our research shows that even seemingly small temperature increases can have profound effects on crop yields, labor productivity and energy costs.
AGRICULTURE
Alabama has more than 43,000 farms covering almost 9 million acres of land. These farms produce a wide range of crops, from cotton to peanuts to sod. In fact, about half of all peanuts produced in the United States are harvested within a 100-mile range of Dothan, Alabama.
Alabama faces significant climate risks to its commod- ity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our research focused on two specific climate impacts—changes in heat and precipitation—and their interaction with four major commodity crops in the Southeast: corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. Crops are very sensitive to changes in their growing environment, particularly temperature.
Small increases in temperatures may benefit plants;
however, most crops have a specific threshold beyond which yields decline dramatically. Overall, impacts from climate-related temperature and precipitation changes are highly crop- and location-specific.
19 Though increased heat has the potential to depress
yields, our analysis also takes into account the poten- tial yield benefits from increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which can stimulate crop growth and potentially reduce or even offset yield declines. Some crops, such as wheat, respond more favorably to this
“carbon fertilization” effect than do others, such as corn.31 On the other hand, our research does not take into account predicted climate-driven changes in water availability or changes in the prevalence and distribu- tion of pests, weeds, and diseases, which can further influence yield outcomes.
Soybeans were Alabama’s second most valuable crop in 2014 with $193 million of production.32 Absent significant agricultural adaptation, soybean yields will likely decrease by up to 14% by 2020-2039. Alabama’s fourth most valu- able crop, corn, will likely experience even steeper produc- tion declines. Corn output will likely drop by as much as 22% by 2020-2039 and as much as 44% by 2040-2059.
On the other hand, Alabama wheat benefits more from the “carbon fertilization” effect than it is harmed by tem- perature increases. As a result, wheat yields are likely to increase over the course of the century as carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise.
Heat affects more than just crop yields, however. As the second largest producer of broilers in the country after Georgia, Alabama faces risks to the one billion chickens it raises each year.33 Because poultry flocks can only tolerate narrow temperature ranges, high temperatures can disrupt performance, production, and fertility, lim- iting an animal’s ability to produce meat or eggs. Higher temperatures can also increase animal mortality. In addi- tion, climate change can affect the price and availability
of water, feed grains, and pasture, and change patterns of animal diseases. And because energy costs comprise more than 50% of growers’ cash expenses,34 higher energy costs due to climate change have the potential to put additional pressure on this sector.
LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
Higher temperatures, spurred by climate change, are likely to drive down labor productivity and overall qual- ity of life in Alabama. Extreme heat stress can induce heat exhaustion or heat stroke and can significantly reduce a person’s ability to carry out daily tasks. By mid-century, heat-related labor productivity declines across all sectors in Alabama will likely cost the state economy up to $1.2 billion each year, with a 1-in-20 chance of costing more than $1.9 billion a year.
ALABAMA
Figure 1: Heat-Related Mortality (Additional Annual Deaths)
Sources: American Climate Prospectus
Likely range
2020–2039 2040–2059 Auto Deaths
in 2013 1-in-20 chance
-29
346 495
191 759
1158
852 Extremely hot and humid temperatures will likely lead to more heat- related deaths in Alabama, with hundreds more annual deaths possible by as soon as 2020-2039.
Alabama labor productivity has been trending upwards in recent decades,35 but climate change could jeopar- dize these gains. Workers in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, utilities and manufacturing are among the most vulnerable to higher outdoor tempera- tures and, therefore, to declining productivity.
In 2011, nearly one in three Alabama employees (about 31%) worked in one of these high-risk sectors. Alabama is likely to experience up to a 0.6% decrease in high- risk labor productivity due to rising temperatures by 2020-2039, increasing to a 1.4% drop in the following 20 years. There is a 1-in-20 likelihood that the state’s high- risk labor productivity will decrease by more than 2% by mid-century.
ALABAMA
ENERGY
Energy use in Alabama is already well above the national average due to high demand from the state’s manufacturing base, which includes chemicals, primary metals, petroleum, coal, paper products, food prod- ucts and transportation equipment.36 As temperatures rise, Alabama citizens and businesses are expected to require more air conditioning, which will lead to higher overall electricity demand. At the same time, power plants and transmission lines are known to become less efficient at very high temperatures. This combination of factors will likely require construction of additional power generation capacity to meet higher peak demand, which in turn will lead to higher elec- tricity rates to cover the cost of new construction and transmission.
By 2020-2039, rising electricity demand related solely to climate change is likely to increase residential and com- mercial energy expenditures by up to 5% in Alabama.
Those increases will likely grow to up to 10% by 2040- 2059. Using future changes in temperature mapped against today’s U.S. energy market, this translates to higher statewide energy expenditures of $742 million each year by mid-century.
Figure 2: Change In Labor Productivity
Likely range 1-in-20 chance
Source: American Climate Prospectus
Alabama is likely to face a significant hit to its labor productivity in sectors reliant on outdoor labor.
2020–2039 2040–2059
0%
-0.6% -0.9% -0.4%
-1.4%
-2.1%
21
ALABAMA
SEA LEVEL RISE
Another critical effect of rising heat is higher sea levels. As the atmosphere warms, the oceans warm and expand. Melting ice caps also contribute to higher sea levels. Higher seas lead to more destruction when storms hit, exacerbating the impact of storm surges and expanding the reach of storm-related flooding.
Figure 3: Change In Energy Costs
Likely range 1-in-20 chance
Source: American Climate Prospectus
2020–2039 2040–2059
0.5%
4.5%
7.6%
3.7%
10.9%
13.3%
Rising temperatures will increase statewide demand for electricity for air conditioning. Extreme heat also reduces power system efficiency, which increases costs for both producers and consumers.
Alabama’s shoreline along the Gulf of Mexico stretches for 60 miles, with an additional 540 miles of tidal shoreline bordering coastal bays, rivers and bayous.
This coastal area is an important aspect of the state’s culture and economy, contributing more than $2 billion in annual revenue.37 In response to increased beach erosion, coastal residents have already taken steps to reverse these trends and protect coastal land and infrastructure. For example, the city of Gulf Shores implemented a $6 million beach nourishment project in 2001 to rebuild beachfront land that was damaged in previous years.38 Climate-induced rising sea levels and increased storm surges could threaten such efforts.
Although Alabama only has a small stretch of coastal land, the storm-related coastal damage to businesses and residents along the coast could be significant. The storm-related losses attributed to climate change along the Alabama shoreline are likely to increase by up to $11 million per year on average by 2030, and up to $29 mil- lion annually by 2050. These numbers may well be too conservative, as they assume historical levels of hurri- cane activity, which may increase with climate change.