Below follows an abbreviation of the strategic impact statement. The comprehensive impact- statement tables are appended as Appendix E.
5.9.1 Impact Zone 1, Upper Nam Ngum 5.9.1.1 Scenario 1
Impacts in the Upper Nam Ngum will be very minor in both 2013, (scenario 1a) and in 2020, (scenario 1b).
5.9.1.2 Scenario 2
In 2013 (scenario 2a), there will be some inundation of paddy and grazing lands as a result of the NN3 reservoir.
The NN3 reservoir will also, further, beyond what is caused by NN2 described below under impact zone 2, fragment the river habitat and effectively isolate the upper reaches of the Nam Ngum.
In scenario 2b (in 2020), the only additional negative impact is likely to come from in- migration, while watershed management interventions have minor positive impacts.
5.9.1.3 Scenario 3
The impacts will be the same as for scenario 2.
5.9.2 Impact Zone 2, Mid Nam Ngum 5.9.2.1 Scenario 1
In 2013 (scenario 1a), the water quality and resources in the area will be adversely affected by the construction of the NN2 reservoir. During a significant time leading up to 2013, less water will be discharged into the NN1 reservoir during the filling of the NN2 reservoir. This impact will be gone by 2013. The NN2 reservoir will act as a sediment trap and less sediment will thus be transported to the NN1 reservoir. Water quality downstream of NN2 will be slightly more acidic with lower level of dissolved oxygen. The reservoir will experience thermal stratification, especially during the dry season. There are also great potential negative impacts to water quality from mining activities in the zone, especially in the case of accidents with large releases of e.g. tailings material.
The inflow to the NN1 reservoir will be reduced by an average of 0.96 m3/s due to evaporation from the NN2 reservoir. The added electricity generation from the NN2 power plant will be just over 1 800 GWh/year, and generation at NN1 will increase, compared with the pre-NN2 situation, by about 75 GWh/year, long term. However, NN1 loses 359 GWh of generation in total, as a result of the filling of the NN2 reservoir. This means that the losses experienced at NN1 as a result of reservoir filling at NN2 are offset by approximately 4 and a half year’s of production once the NN2 reservoir is full. After that time period has passed, NN1 reaps a net benefit from the existence of NN2.
Considerable cultivation areas of paddy and upland rice, a total of almost 9 000 ha, will be lost due to inundation by the NN2 reservoir while modest productivity increases can be expected from improved irrigation schemes in (Nam Bak and Nam Xan) communities, close to the reservoir.
There will be considerable negative impacts on aquatic ecology, caused by the change from river habitats to lake habitats, the blockage of migration routes, and decreased oxygen levels in the NN2 reservoir, which will cause a change and reduction of aquatic biodiversity. In the NN1 reservoir, moderate to serious impacts are expected on the fishery due to, primarily, decreased water quality caused by releases from the NN2 reservoir. The most serious impacts will be on the Keng Noi conservation area, just down-stream of the NN2 tailrace, where 80%
of the fish productivity of the NN1 reservoir originates. Following impoundment there will be short-term windfall catches (of certain species) in the NN2 reservoir, but these will level off as nutrient content falls.
No key habitats, national forests or conservation areas are affected by the NN2 reservoir. 30 km of transmission-line corridor pass through the Phou Khao Khouay NBCA – located outside the actual NNRB, causing minor habitat fragmentation. There is some potential for positive impacts to vegetative cover resulting from management interventions i.e. reduced upland cultivation and enhanced forest practices. The access to the area will lead to a gradual increase of hunting and illegal logging.
The socioeconomic and poverty conditions are strongly affected by the resettlement process, which, based on our conclusions, has not been properly implemented thus far. Therefore, it is most likely that some households will resist relocation and instead move into the Upper Nam Ngum area to join clan and family members. Conflicts over land use will have increased in areas adjacent to the NN2 reservoir, and unsustainable land and forest usage will continue. On the other hand, villagers from nearby areas will have moved closer to the NN2 reservoir, getting involved in fishing and capitalising on land and forest resources left behind by the resettled communities.
Significant negative health impacts will also be experienced among construction workers, camp followers and remaining local population around the NN2 reservoir on sexually transmitted infections (STI) including HIV/AIDS, malnutrition and acute respiratory infections (ARIs).
By 2020, (scenario 1b), the NN2 reservoir water quality is expected to have improved, and the sediment yields into the reservoir will be reduced due to improved forest cover, especially due to abandoned upland cultivation areas regenerating to secondary forest.
The NN1 reservoir will have greatly reduced productivity and biodiversity due to the impacts stated in Scenario 1a. The improved transportation infrastructure in the area will have lead to an increase of hunting and illegal logging. Local extinctions of aquatic species are possible up-stream of the NN2 reservoir. A moderately productive fishery has developed in the NN2 reservoir.
The health situation has improved somewhat compared to scenario 1a, and the most serious remaining issues are HIV/AIDS and malnutrition.
5.9.2.2 Scenario 2
In 2013 (scenario 2a), impacts on water quality and quantity resulting from the reservoir construction, will be consistent with those described for Scenario 1, but will occur also at the site for the NN3 reservoir. The steep valley sides and fluctuating water levels in NN3 will lead to increased TSS and turbidity. The reservoirs cause decreased dissolved oxygen levels and thermal stratification, effects that will be amplified with the cascade of dams. There are substantial potential negative impacts on water quality from mining activities in the basin.
The NN3 reservoir starts acting as a sediment trap, reducing sediment inflow into the NN2 reservoir.
Evaporation from the NN3 reservoir reduces average inflow into the NN1 and NN2 reservoirs by 0.20 m3/s, a cumulative reduction of 1.16 m3/s. The average water levels in the reservoirs will be higher the in the present-day situation, and spillage will be reduced. The NN3 plant will produce around 1 769 GWh/year of electricity. The filling of the NN3 plant will reduce generation by 121 GWh and 32 GWh, in the NN2 and NN1 plants respectively. However, after filling, the added reservoir capacity will increase average annual generation by 36 and 6 GWh/year for the NN2 and NN1 plants. Thus the losses of generation from reservoir filling will be offset in about 3 and a half and 5 and a half years respectively for the NN2 and NN1 plants.
Additional paddy and upland agricultural land will be inundated. Abandoned areas of upland cultivation will start regenerating to secondary forest. A modest agricultural productivity increase is expected from irrigation schemes.
Further blockage of migration routes upstream and along tributaries of NN3 will cause aquatic habitat fragmentation, exacerbated by decreased water quality, periods of low flows in a river section around 11 km downstream of NN3. Following impoundment there will be short-term windfall catches of certain species in the NN3 reservoir, but these will level off as nutrient content falls. The viability of NN1 reservoir fisheries will be further affected (as compared to scenario 1a) by the construction of NN3.
The terrestrial ecology will be affected by improved infrastructure and increased access to the forest and, to a certain extent, affect fauna migration routes, but watershed management interventions may have a positive effect on vegetation and other terrestrial ecology. There are no NBCAs or conservation areas affected by the reservoirs.
Socio-economic impacts will be similar to those described in scenario 1a, with the added issues of the population resettled by the NN3 project. Impacts on the affected populations will be similar, but it is expected that international standards for resettlement procedures will be followed more closely, resulting in a better situation for the NN3 resettlers than will be the case for those resettled by the NN2 project.
The health situation will be the same as in scenario 1a, except that the NN3-affected population will add numbers to the total affected population. There are also potentially serious negative impacts on people’s security downstream of the NN3 plant, since no re-regulation is planned, leading to very rapid fluctuations in water flows when the turbines are turned on and off.
In scenario 2b (in 2020), the run-off regime in the river will have stabilised, as both NN2 and NN3 will have been in operations for many years, but quite large daily fluctuations will
remain (permanently). The water quality in the reservoirs will have improved, mainly because of a decrease in organic-matter decomposition. Thermal stratification will remain, and the release of cool bottom water from the NN3 and NN2 reservoirs will have a permanent negative effect on the respective down-stream reservoir(s).
Forests continue to regenerate, having moderately positive impacts on sediment production.
Land use will be very similar to Scenario 2a, with a continued moderate increase in agricultural productivity, partly due to the development of irrigation schemes. The aquatic ecology will be affected as is described in Scenario 2a, but fisheries in the NN1 and NN2 reservoirs will have stabilised and are moderately productive. Fisheries in the NN3 reservoir will have low productivity. However, long-term impacts from poor water quality on reservoir aquatic population will still be evident.
For terrestrial ecology, continued in-migration results in minor negative impacts, but watershed management and monitoring of hunting and logging in the forests have a positive impact.
It is expected that parts of the NN2 resettlers will not be able to make a living from agricultural production alone, and will have to rely on wage labour on plantations (including women and children), on work in fields of better-off farmers, or on temporary or permanent work in urban areas (construction and service sector). However, it is also anticipated that parts of the resettled villagers have adjusted economically, socially and culturally to their new environment, taking advantage of new economic opportunities.
Health impacts are similar to scenario 2a.
5.9.2.3 Scenario 3
In 2013 (scenario 3a), the water-quality impacts along the Nam Ngum mainstream will be similar to those in scenario 2a, with cumulative impacts brought by the construction of NN5.
The NN5 reservoir also has steep slopes which will be prone to sliding, causing increased turbidity and TSS values. The release of water from NN5 will affect the water quality in the NN3 reservoir negatively, an impact whose severity will be determined by the actual chosen layout – release directly into the NN3 reservoir or with a considerable stretch of aeration between tailrace and the NN3 reservoir.
The Nam Bak projects will release low-quality water into the NN1 reservoir (or NN2 reservoir, depending on the chosen layout). This will add to the negative impacts already caused by the construction of NN2.
Evaporation from new reservoirs will reduce the inflow into the NN1 reservoir by an average cumulative total of 1.40 m3/s compared to present-day situation (0.24 m3/s more than in scenario 2). Evaporation from the NN3 and NN5 reservoirs will reduce the inflow into the NN2 reservoir by a total of 0.30 m3/s, out of which 0.10 m3/s is added by NN5. The filling of the NN5 reservoir will reduce the generation at NN2 by 22 GWh and by 6 GWh at NN1. But, compared to scenario 2, the generation of electricity at NN1 will increase by 14 GWh/year. At NN2, the generation will increase by 16 GWh/year, compared to scenario 2. Alas, the losses from NN5 reservoir filling will be offset by about one and a half years at NN2 and by less than half a year at NN1.
Across the entire basin (all impact zones), a cumulative area of almost 12 000 ha of upland agricultural land will be inundated, an additional 2 000 ha compared with scenario 2.
Further fragmentation of aquatic habitats, will threaten a known endemic species (Himimyzon confluens) on the Nam Ting (down-stream of NN5). The developments on the Nam Bak will
have added serious consequences for the fisheries in the NN1 reservoir. Nam Bak will, in an undeveloped state, mitigate negative impacts from mainstream developments somewhat, a function lost when the first of the two planned power plants is constructed on that river as well. The fish productivity of NN1 reservoir will be seriously compromised. Minimal benefits will be derived from reservoir fisheries.
The cumulative total of affected forests reaches 23 000 ha on a basin level (all impact zones).
1% of present forest area in the whole Nam Ngum catchment will then be inundated by the reservoirs. The Nam Bak projects open up a previously inaccessible area. There will be some moderately positive development as a result of improved forests and protected-areas (management), the latter located outside the actual NNRB.
Socio-economic impacts will be similar to those described in scenario 1a and 2a, with the added issues of the population resettled by the NN5 and Nam Bak 1 projects. Impacts on the affected populations will be similar, and there is a clear risk that these additional projects will run into similar problems as the NN2 project, if stringent adherence to international standards for resettlement procedures is not followed. Nam Bak 1 is located in a very sparsely populated area, but there are fairly densely settled ethnic minority areas close by. The improved access into such areas often result in increased natural-resource use activities, bringing with them processes often seriously detrimental to ethnic minority populations. However, if adequate safeguards are in place, it is expected that villagers in the affected areas will have improved access to social services (health, education), infrastructure, and new employment opportunities. These employment opportunities will likely be used primarily by the stronger groups in society.
Health impacts are expected to be the same as for Scenario 2a, with the addition of the NN5 area which will experience negative impacts primarily on HIV/AIDS, but there are also security concerns for people related to rapid fluctuations in water releases from NN5.
In 2020, (scenario 3b), impacts on water quality and resources will be similar to scenario 3a, but the water quality will have improved in the reservoirs in the Mid Nam Ngum zone, due to the depletion of organic materials.
Land use and irrigation impacts will be the same as for scenario 2b.
The aquatic ecology will be severely affected, and the Nam Bak will no longer be a key spawning area. The NN2, NN3, NN5, NB1, NB2 reservoirs will have minimal to moderately productive fisheries.
Health impacts are expected to be very similar to Scenario 3a, but with time, proper health care should be able to mitigate most of the immediate negative project impacts.
5.9.3 Impact Zone 3, Nam Lik – Nam Xong 5.9.3.1 Scenario 1
In 2013 (scenario 1a), the increased population in the area, due partly to the NN2 resettlement process, will increase the pressure on water resources, e.g. diversion of water for irrigation and domestic use. The groundwater may also be affected if heavy use of pumped groundwater is developed. The expansion of agricultural activities will increase nutrient levels in the Nam Lik and Nam Xong rivers.
An increase in agricultural productivity is expected on concession lands, and from improved irrigation schemes. A substantial diversification into higher value dry season irrigated crops is
also expected. However, insufficient paddy and upland farming lands in the resettlement areas may cause issues between villagers and settlers.
Resettled villagers also cause negative impacts on the forests and terrestrial ecology. Locally this impact, resulting from forest conversion, collection of NTFPs and hunting, will be severe.
Forest plantations could cause negative impacts, where ill conceived mono-culture is implemented.
There will be an increase in local fishing pressure, resulting from the increase in population with the NN2 resettlers.
If the resettlement process for NN2 is not adjusted, it is most likely that resettlers will not adjust to new social, economic and environmental conditions, and will instead become marginalised in their new community. Inequitable compensations will likely have been made, and only well connected and resourced resettled families in conjunction with outside investors will have managed to pick up new opportunities provided by the new site and new situation.
Others, and in particularly vulnerable groups, will be further marginalised, with insufficient land provisions, and some households will have moved back to their places of origin (Mid and Upper Nam Ngum) or have moved on to urban areas. Serious conflicts will have developed between resettled and host communities, over land and other issues.
The NN2 resettlers will suffer from (high impacts on) stress-related diseases and problems, and medium impacts on STIs, malnutrition, ARIs and HIV/AIDS.
In 2020, (scenario 1b), a continued increase in water demand for domestic and agricultural purposes is expected. The increases in high-input agriculture will probably lead to some negative water-quality impacts.
There is a clear risk that insufficient land will continue to cause conflict between the population resettled by NN2 and the host population in the Fuang district.
The ecological impacts will be similar to those in scenario 1a, with the added negative impact of significantly increased timber harvesting, but this is more an effect of general development than an impact of the scenario conditions.
The socio-economic and health situations will be entirely dependent on the success and/or failure to implement proper mitigation and development activities in, primarily, the NN2 resettlement area. If the present situation is not addressed, negative impacts will have been reinforced and large groups become marginalised.
5.9.3.2 Scenario 2
Impacts will be almost the same as for scenario 1, since the addition of the NN3 plant will have very little impacts in this impact zone.
5.9.3.3 Scenario 3
In 2013, (scenario 3a), the addition of the Nam Lik 1 and 2 plants will have changed the hydrology of the Nam Lik branch completely. During the filling of the NL2 reservoir, the dilution effect that Nam Lik water presently has on the NN1 releases will almost stop. After the filling is completed, the water quality of the Nam Lik branch will be negatively affected by the new reservoirs.
The NL1 and NL2 reservoirs will reduce the flow of the Nam Lik down-stream of the Nam Lik 1 plant by a combined average total of 0.28 m3/s. The average wet-season flows down- stream of the NL1 plant will be reduced from around 305 m3/s to 281 m3/s and the dry-
season flows will increase from 40 m3/s to 74 m3/s. The NL1 plant will generate 233 GWh/year of electrical energy, and the NL2 will generate 271 GWh/year.
The NL1 and NL2 reservoirs will inundate around 2 500 ha of upland agricultural land, and a small area of paddy.
Key fish migration routes from the Mekong are blocked after Nam Lik 1 and 2 are constructed. The impact on the general status of the migratory species will be moderate to serious, long term and extending beyond the Nam Ngum basin to the Mekong River. One of the last remaining undeveloped Mekong tributaries will be lost.
The Nam Lik 2 reservoir will inundate part of a Production Forest. The area is densely forested, but the impact will be minor, seen on the scale of the Impact Zone, but obviously very significant locally. Further resettlement, resulting from Nam Lik 1, will bring more people closer to forests, with possible negative impacts. Nam Lik 2 will also bring new infrastructure into an area which is presently quite isolated. Locally this will bring significant negative impacts on forests and other terrestrial biodiversity.
The socioeconomic and poverty impacts will be exacerbated compared to Scenario 1a, due to the significant resettlement caused by NL1. This will add pressure on land in the zone, and potentially cause additional conflicts between resettlers and host populations. This makes redressing the inadequacies of the present NN2 resettlement procedures even more important.
If this is accomplished in a completely successful manner, developments could even be expected to be positive. Following development of the two Nam Lik power plants, eco-resorts and other tour operator-run kayaking trips on the Nam Lik will be near impossible in 2013.
There will be medium impacts on HIV/AIDS and other STIs, and low to medium impacts on malaria. Drowning and stress-related diseases and problems among the population will also occur. Rapid fluctuations in water flows when the turbines are turned on and off could potentially lead to security concerns for people downstream of the plant.
In 2020, (scenario 3b), water quality in the NL1 and NL2 reservoirs will likely have improved. Reservoir fisheries will be established, but with low productivity.
It is expected that the socio-economic and poverty situation will have improved, as mitigation and development activities continue to address problems caused by resettlement. But, if these measures are not implemented in an effective manner, the situation could be severe in the area, with extensive conflicts over resources and widespread poverty and marginalisation. The health situation will have improved, but medium impacts on the HIV/AIDS situation will likely prevail.
5.9.4 Impact Zone 4, Lower Nam Ngum 5.9.4.1 Scenario 1
In 2013 (scenario 1a), the higher wet-season flows will be somewhat reduced, by about 2%, and the dry-season flows will remain unchanged in the Vientiane plain.
Release of poor-quality water from the NN2 reservoir will negatively affect the water quality in the NN1 reservoir and consequently the quality of the water released from NN1. Due to the expansion of agricultural activities and growth of the urban areas in the Vientiane plains, the quality will be further deteriorated. The poor water quality will have a negative impact on the fisheries and status of the aquatic ecology.
Irrigation schemes will have plenty of available water, in all seasons. Moderate increases in agricultural productivity are expected, as well as a moderate diversification into higher-value