In the course of research on 4G and future systems many issues of different types (technical, economical, etc.) must be studied and resolved. Some, such as the development of even more efficient modulation techniques, identification of new spectrum, and developments in battery technology/power consumption, are quite straightforward and have been identified during 2G and 3G research and development stages. Other issues are not so clear and are dependent on the evolution of the telecommunications market and society in general. Although the aim of 4G research will obviously be towards better performance, certain aspects of the telecom- munications market and society’s perception of communications may significantly influence the market penetration of products for the next generation of mobile and wireless networks.
As already mentioned, 4G and future systems target the market of 2010 and beyond. Since we cannot reliably foresee the state of telecommunications and society after such a time period, it is practical to study possible evolution scenarios in order to identify issues that may impact the future market for such systems and thus affect the related research. Three such scenarios have been identified [5–8]. In the remainder of this section, we provide a short overview of the concepts of these scenarios, how these three scenarios were created and finally present the three scenarios.
6.4.1 Scenarios: Visions of the Future
The concept of scenarios as tools for prediction future situations was first used after World War II to evaluate the significance of development in various technological areas. In order to keep up with the increasing pace of development, the two superpowers needed to set certain priorities. The problem was which priorities to set. A possible solution was to spy on the other side, understand its priorities and act accordingly. The other option was to act independently by predicting the developments and set priorities according to the predictions. Since a single prediction is not accurate, more than one possible prediction for the future was preferable in order to prepare for more than one different alternative situation. Each of these different predictions is called a scenario.
Scenarios are basically stories that express assumptions about the future. These assump- tions are the result of different individuals’ and groups’ beliefs about the future. Scenarios are usually produced by posing specific questionnaires to, possibly, specialized groups of people.
The individual opinions combine to produce a set of trends for the future. By identifying the trends that are sure to play an important role in the future and varying the relative impact of other trends, several scenarios are produced.
Scenarios are useful in cases where limited knowledge on a future situation exists, however, a decision regarding the situation has to be made. There are, of course, inherent vulnerabilities of the scenario-based approach: one cannot predict what will really happen, but only speculate based on present situations. Furthermore, in the process of identifying the trends that make up the scenarios, several factors that influence the situation might be over- looked or misinterpreted. Furthermore, as we approach the time of the situation under study, visions on the situation may change and thus some trends may vanish and new ones may appear.
6.4.2 Trends for Next-generation Wireless Networks
In the process of the research mentioned in Ref. [8], several trends regarding next generation wireless networks (2010 and beyond) were identified. These are briefly summarized below:
† Globalization of products, services and companies. Globalization has affected peoples’
lives ever since the time ancient civilizations started to come in contact with each other.
However, globalization show a surge with the invention of television, Internet and tele- communications in general. According to the survey, the impact of globalization will continue to exist and will surely affect the telecommunications scene of the future.
† Communicating appliances.This trend states that future consumer devices, such as TV sets, videos and stereos, will employ ‘intelligence’. Although this is also true for the present, future consumer devices are expected to make certain kinds of decisions on their own and have the necessary equipment to communicate with other devices.
† Services become more independent of the underlying infrastructure.This trend states that future services are expected to be more separated from the infrastructure they use. This will enable many different devices to use the same network infrastructure.
† Information trading/overflow. Communications in the society of the future will be an integral part of peoples’ lives. Computers will be the primary means for accessing infor- mation, thus diminishing the importance of printed versions of mass communications like newspapers. This trend also identifies the possibility of individuals receiving large
Future Trends: Fourth Generation (4G) Systems and Beyond 197
amounts of information, much more than they can handle. This trend identifies the need for refining and controlling information exchanges.
† Standardization diversification.This trend identifies the possibility of companies taking over control of the market and forcing their own de facto standards. This could be either due to political issues inside standards development organizations or market success giving power to some companies.
The following sections provide three scenarios for the future of telecommunications that were identified by research. Figure 6.4 shows the way social issues and standardization affect the generation of those scenarios.
6.4.3 Scenario 1: Anything Goes
This scenario has the following characteristics:
† High development rate for telecommunications.
† Transparent access to the network.
† Manufacturing companies have a strong market power.
† Large number of de facto standards.
† Generic hardware equipment will run software enabling specialized services.
† Self-configuring systems.
In this scenario, telecommunications technology is envisioned to achieve a deep market penetration and become an essential part of peoples’ everyday life. This will lead to fierce industrial competition and decreased cost of product manufacturing and service offering. The reduced cost of products and services will enable almost everyone to have the ability to
Figure 6.4 The three scenarios’ dependence on standardization and social issues.
seamlessly access the services of the next generations of networks regardless of what access system is used. The increased acceptance of 4G and future systems will raise research to extreme levels with crucial aims being the identification of techniques offering efficient management of the scarce spectrum (possibly altering regulation processes) and efficient handling of the high number of subscribers. Furthermore, since telecommunications will become an integral part of peoples’ lives, a high degree of mobility is expected to appear.
This will require research for flexible and fully automated dynamic resource allocation and flexible roaming schemes.
The increased popularity of telecommunication systems will make companies manufactur- ing such products a dominant player in the telecommunications world. This will possibly change the way standardization work is conducted in the future. Companies that enjoy a big market share will probably establish their own de facto standards bypassing standards devel- opments organizations. This means that the significance of such organizations will diminish.
The deep penetration of telecommunications in peoples’ lives will serve a very diverse range of needs. Users will demand availability of ready-to-use systems, tailored for their needs. Thus, it would be desirable to research towards intelligent ad hoc systems, able to either automatically deploy and configure themselves or demand little such knowledge and intervention by users. Furthermore, personal adaptation of services based on user preferences would also be desirable. This will lead to individual applications adapted to specific users.
Such intelligent systems will use a generic set of hardware and employ all the necessary functionality to support different networks and services in software.
6.4.4 Scenario 2: Big Brother
This scenario has the following characteristics:
† Privacy is the first priority.
† Governmental organizations ensure privacy.
† Limited telecommunications market.
† Low development rate of telecommunications.
† Very few operators.
This scenario foresees a limited telecommunications development speed. This is due to the fact that the rapid development of telecommunications in the earlier decade has led to a point where it will be easy to find almost any information about a person or a company, by directly eavesdropping on data exchanges, through the WWW, or by buying it from information thieves and traders. This, of course, is illegal, but the inherent freedom of the WWW provides the means to post and trade such information. Society will be very reluctant to use telecom- munications services unless a high level of security is guaranteed.
To solve security problems, governments will form agencies responsible for certifying operators to be trusted and secure. These agencies will eventually come up with a mandatory security standard and act as Orwell’s Big Brother, by making sure that all companies either follow this standard or are shut down. Every company that either manufactures telecommu- nication products or offers services will be tested to ensure compliance with the security standard. This will possibly lower the number of legal operators and product manufacturers since a number of companies may not pass certification and go out of business. The decreased number of companies and the reluctance of users to embrace telecommunications due to fears
Future Trends: Fourth Generation (4G) Systems and Beyond 199
related to security problems will obviously limit the telecommunications market. The smaller market will make operating companies offer less money for research, thus lowering the speed of telecommunications development.
In such a scenario, the most important research issues will concern security and privacy.
Since a lot of bandwidth will be consumed for security purposes, a ‘security overhead’ will characterize the performance of all telecommunication systems. Thus, development of effi- cient techniques offering high channel capacities over the same amount of spectrum will need to be addressed.
6.4.5 Scenario 3: Pocket Computing This scenario has the following characteristics:
† Social and political differences.
† Existence of highly differentiated service and pricing categories.
† Service providers offering specialized services also provide equipment for specialized purposes.
This scenario envisions a world in which technological development is fast, however, the customer base is divided into two parts due to economical and sociological factors. The first part will comprise those customers who possess the financial ability to keep up with technol- ogy developments while the second part will comprise those who do not. The customers in the latter category will be ordinary people who prefer to pay for reduced services at minimum price. These people will use evolved versions of legacy 2G/3G systems. Evolved variants of GSM will still possess a significant market share due its low pricing, however, it will remain inappropriate for supporting multimedia needs due to lack of bandwidth. DECT, IS-95 and other legacy systems will also continue to exist. The second part of the customer base will comprise those users who will be able to afford the increased cost of advanced services. Such services will use the different wireless networks in combination and will be relatively expen- sive. Consequently apart from other research issues, the issue of smooth integration and interoperability of 4G and future systems and 2G/3G legacy systems will have to be effi- ciently solved. Furthermore, despite the fact that the customer base will be divided, tele- communications is bound to become an integral part of peoples’ lives. Thus, as in the case of the ‘anything goes’ scenario, a high degree of mobility is expected to appear. This will require research for flexible and fully automated dynamic resource allocation and flexible roaming schemes.
To support such a divided customer base, the service providers are likely to offer a wide range of different services, addressing the needs of various user groups. Furthermore, equip- ment developers will need to provide specialized terminals for each user group. Finally, spectrum regulation issues will need to be resolved, as new spectrum will be needed for the advanced services.