Data analysis in research
To prepare agriculture and forestry for adapting to meteorological risks, another challenge is that efforts must be made in research, based on the knowledge of cli- mate data currently available, and orienting it towards the development of the most useful techniques. These developments must be accompanied by efforts in agro- nomic research which take the hypothesis related to climatic extremes and vari- ability into account in research in plant genetic improvement and development of sustainable cropping systems to attain the delivery of operational applications regarding adaptation strategies. Itthen becomes indispensable to single out two types of adaptation depending on the final user: those which can be implemented by the farmer himself (modification of sowing dates, varietal choice, use of season- al forecasts, etc.) and those for decision-makers, land and natural resource man- agers which necessitate investment in development and construction infrastruc- tures.
The concept of the Markov Chain probability model (Robertson 1976) on ini- tial and transitional probabilities of dry and wet spells has been found a very useful tool for crop planning and drought monitoring. The Markov Chain model can be fitted to weekly rainfall totals to obtain sequences of dry and wet spells. These ini- tial and transitional probabilities can be used for answering several questions con- cerning the expected frequencies of sequences of dry and wet weeks. The challenge here is that understanding sequences of wet and dry spells should help in prepar- ing better agro-advisories, which should help farmers and agricultural scientists to take appropriate decisions for farm operations (Biswas 1994).
4.7
Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS)
The major challenge to coping strategies is the development of well differentiated and sufficiently scaled up operational services supporting preparedness strategies (e.g. Stigter et al. 2007). In India, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting has for example developed an AAS in close collaboration with the In- dia Meteorological Department, the Indian Council for Agricultural Research and the State Agricultural Universities. General Circulation Models (T-80 and T-170) constitute the basic tool for preparing location specific forecasts in the medium range. The model output is subjected to statistical (Perfect Prog. Model) and syn- optic interpretation for improving the skill of weather forecasts. In relation to the forecasts currently available, progress is expected by users on enhancing the skill and range of meteorological variables. Itwould be necessary to obtain informa- tion not only on the average values, but also on the extreme values (for example, for rainfall or wind speed) and exceeded threshold values (the case of frost and heat waves). The center is providing agro-climatic zone specific day to day weather forecasts for next 4-5 days twice a week i.e. Tuesday and Friday along with cumu- lative weekly rainfall. The weather forecast is made in quantitative terms for rain- fall, cloud cover, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed and
direction. These zone-specific forecasts are tailored in the light of current weather observations received from the AAS unit in real time. The forecast is disseminat- ed to the AAS units in real-time using fast communication facilities like Internet/
Telefax etc. IMD is providing support to maintain an observational network of ob- servatories at AAS units.
On receipt of the forecasts at the AAS units, they prepare the medium range weather forecast based agrometeorological advisories in vernacular language in consultation with a panel of experts in various subject matters of agriculture. These agro-advisories which are crop specific, weather event specific and farm operation specific are disseminated to farmers through all possible mass media like newspa- per, radio, television and also through personal contacts by extension workers. The advisories are kept as simple as possible both in terms of the language and the ter- minology keeping in view the literacy level of the local farmers. In addition to the farmers, these bulletins are also provided to authorities of concerned departments like those of agriculture, horticulture, irrigation, soil conservation, animal hus- bandry etc. to enable them to take necessary measures for effective utilization of the advisories. These are examples of what in the literature now more generally is called agrometeorological services (e.g. Stigter et al. 200Sb; WMO 2006).
4.8
Conclusion and recommendation
The four coping strategies with preparedness from a different perspective have been explained and illustrated. The key challenge is in the combination of these strategies and in facing a combination of challenges to each of them. The stronger governments and/or NGOs are at local levels, but supported by higher up levels, the more chances of coping with disasters there are. Much suffering will remain in coping with disasters, because fate has to be faced and more resource wars loom.
But it has to be recommended that the preparedness strategies are taken serious be- cause local, federal and international support can also be better absorbed and used when more challenges to coping strategies that we discussed are met within the lo- cal possibilities of communities, families and individuals.
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