Tài liệu Ten Principles of Economics - Part 69 pdf

To un-derstand the downward slope of the aggregate-demand curve, therefore, we must examine how the price level affects the quantity of goods and services demanded for consumption, inves

FA C T 3 : A S O U T P U T FA L L S , U N E M P L O Y M E N T R I S E S

Changes in the economy’s output of goods and services are strongly correlated

with changes in the economy’s utilization of its labor force In other words, when

real GDP declines, the rate of unemployment rises This fact is hardly surprising:

When firms choose to produce a smaller quantity of goods and services, they lay

off workers, expanding the pool of unemployed

Panel (c) of Figure 31-1 shows the unemployment rate in the U.S economy

since 1965 Once again, recessions are shown as the shaded areas in the figure The

figure shows clearly the impact of recessions on unemployment In each of the

re-cessions, the unemployment rate rises substantially When the recession ends and

real GDP starts to expand, the unemployment rate gradually declines The

unem-ployment rate never approaches zero; instead, it fluctuates around its natural rate

of about 5 percent

Q U I C K Q U I Z : List and discuss three key facts about economic fluctuations

E X P L A I N I N G S H O R T - R U N

E C O N O M I C F L U C T U AT I O N S

Describing the regular patterns that economies experience as they fluctuate over

time is easy Explaining what causes these fluctuations is more difficult Indeed,

compared to the topics we have studied in previous chapters, the theory of

eco-nomic fluctuations remains controversial In this and the next two chapters, we

de-velop the model that most economists use to explain short-run fluctuations in

economic activity

H O W T H E S H O R T R U N D I F F E R S F R O M T H E L O N G R U N

In previous chapters we developed theories to explain what determines most

im-portant macroeconomic variables in the long run Chapter 24 explained the level

and growth of productivity and real GDP Chapter 25 explained how the real

in-terest rate adjusts to balance saving and investment Chapter 26 explained why

there is always some unemployment in the economy Chapters 27 and 28

ex-plained the monetary system and how changes in the money supply affect the

price level, the inflation rate, and the nominal interest rate Chapters 29 and 30

ex-tended this analysis to open economies in order to explain the trade balance and

the exchange rate

All of this previous analysis was based on two related ideas—the classical

di-chotomy and monetary neutrality Recall that the classical didi-chotomy is the

sepa-ration of variables into real variables (those that measure quantities or relative

prices) and nominal variables (those measured in terms of money) According to

classical macroeconomic theory, changes in the money supply affect nominal

vari-ables but not real varivari-ables As a result of this monetary neutrality, Chapters 24, 25,

and 26 were able to examine the determinants of real variables (real GDP, the real interest rate, and unemployment) without introducing nominal variables (the money supply and the price level)

Do these assumptions of classical macroeconomic theory apply to the world in which we live? The answer to this question is of central importance to

under-standing how the economy works: Most economists believe that classical theory de-scribes the world in the long run but not in the short run Beyond a period of several

years, changes in the money supply affect prices and other nominal variables but

do not affect real GDP, unemployment, or other real variables When studying year-to-year changes in the economy, however, the assumption of monetary neu-trality is no longer appropriate Most economists believe that, in the short run, real and nominal variables are highly intertwined In particular, changes in the money supply can temporarily push output away from its long-run trend

To understand the economy in the short run, therefore, we need a new model

To build this new model, we rely on many of the tools we have developed in pre-vious chapters, but we have to abandon the classical dichotomy and the neutrality

of money

T H E B A S I C M O D E L O F E C O N O M I C F L U C T U AT I O N S

Our model of short-run economic fluctuations focuses on the behavior of two vari-ables The first variable is the economy’s output of goods and services, as mea-sured by real GDP The second variable is the overall price level, as meamea-sured by the CPI or the GDP deflator Notice that output is a real variable, whereas the price level is a nominal variable Hence, by focusing on the relationship between these two variables, we are highlighting the breakdown of the classical dichotomy

We analyze fluctuations in the economy as a whole with the model of aggre-gate demand and aggreaggre-gate supply,which is illustrated in Figure 31-2 On the ver-tical axis is the overall price level in the economy On the horizontal axis is the

overall quantity of goods and services The aggregate-demand curve shows the

quantity of goods and services that households, firms, and the government want

to buy at each price level The aggregate-supply curve shows the quantity of

goods and services that firms produce and sell at each price level According to this model, the price level and the quantity of output adjust to bring aggregate de-mand and aggregate supply into balance

It may be tempting to view the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply as nothing more than a large version of the model of market demand and market supply, which we introduced in Chapter 4 Yet in fact this model is quite different When we consider demand and supply in a particular market—ice cream, for instance—the behavior of buyers and sellers depends on the ability of resources to move from one market to another When the price of ice cream rises, the quantity demanded falls because buyers will use their incomes to buy prod-ucts other than ice cream Similarly, a higher price of ice cream raises the quantity supplied because firms that produce ice cream can increase production by hiring

workers away from other parts of the economy This microeconomic substitution

from one market to another is impossible when we are analyzing the economy as

a whole After all, the quantity that our model is trying to explain—real GDP— measures the total quantity produced in all of the economy’s markets To under-stand why the aggregate-demand curve is downward sloping and why the

m o d e l o f a g g r e g a t e

d e m a n d a n d

a g g r e g a t e s u p p l y

the model that most economists

use to explain short-run

fluctuations in economic activity

around its long-run trend

a g g r e g a t e - d e m a n d c u r v e

a curve that shows the quantity of

goods and services that households,

firms, and the government want to

buy at each price level

a g g r e g a t e - s u p p l y c u r v e

a curve that shows the quantity of

goods and services that firms choose

to produce and sell at each price level

aggregate-supply curve is upward sloping, we need a macroeconomic theory.

Developing such a theory is our next task

Q U I C K Q U I Z : How does the economy’s behavior in the short run differ

from its behavior in the long run? ◆ Draw the model of aggregate demand

and aggregate supply What variables are on the two axes?

T H E A G G R E G AT E - D E M A N D C U R V E

The aggregate-demand curve tells us the quantity of all goods and services

de-manded in the economy at any given price level As Figure 31-3 illustrates, the

aggregate-demand curve is downward sloping This means that, other things

equal, a fall in the economy’s overall level of prices (from, say, P1to P2) tends to

raise the quantity of goods and services demanded (from Y1to Y2)

W H Y T H E A G G R E G AT E - D E M A N D C U R V E

S L O P E S D O W N WA R D

Why does a fall in the price level raise the quantity of goods and services

de-manded? To answer this question, it is useful to recall that GDP (which we denote

as Y ) is the sum of consumption (C ), investment (I), government purchases (G),

and net exports (NX):

Equilibrium output

Quantity of Output

Price

Level

0

Equilibrium

price level

Aggregate supply

Aggregate demand

F i g u r e 3 1 - 2

AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY.

Economists use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to analyze economic fluctuations On the vertical axis is the overall level of prices.

On the horizontal axis is the economy’s total output of goods and services Output and the price level adjust

to the point at which the aggregate-supply and aggregate-demand curves intersect.

Y ⫽ C ⫹ I ⫹ G ⫹ NX.

Each of these four components contributes to the aggregate demand for goods and services For now, we assume that government spending is fixed by policy The other three components of spending—consumption, investment, and net ex-ports—depend on economic conditions and, in particular, on the price level To un-derstand the downward slope of the aggregate-demand curve, therefore, we must examine how the price level affects the quantity of goods and services demanded for consumption, investment, and net exports

T h e P r i c e L e v e l a n d C o n s u m p t i o n : T h e W e a l t h E f f e c t Con-sider the money that you hold in your wallet and your bank account The nominal value of this money is fixed, but its real value is not When prices fall, these dollars are more valuable because then they can be used to buy more goods and services

Thus, a decrease in the price level makes consumers feel more wealthy, which in turn en-courages them to spend more The increase in consumer spending means a larger quantity

of goods and services demanded.

T h e P r i c e L e v e l a n d I n v e s t m e n t : T h e I n t e r e s t - R a t e E f f e c t

As we discussed in Chapter 28, the price level is one determinant of the quantity

of money demanded The lower the price level, the less money households need to hold to buy the goods and services they want When the price level falls, therefore, households try to reduce their holdings of money by lending some of it out For in-stance, a household might use its excess money to buy interest-bearing bonds Or

it might deposit its excess money in an interest-bearing savings account, and the bank would use these funds to make more loans In either case, as households try

to convert some of their money into interest-bearing assets, they drive down

Quantity of Output

Price Level

0

Aggregate demand P1

P2

1 A decrease

in the price level

2 increases the quantity of goods and services demanded.

F i g u r e 3 1 - 3

T HE A GGREGATE -D EMAND

C URVE A fall in the price level

from P1to P2 increases the

quantity of goods and services

demanded from Y1to Y2 There

are three reasons for this negative

relationship As the price level

falls, real wealth rises, interest

rates fall, and the exchange rate

depreciates These effects

stimulate spending on

consumption, investment, and

net exports Increased spending

on these components of output

means a larger quantity of goods

and services demanded.

interest rates Lower interest rates, in turn, encourage borrowing by firms that

want to invest in new plants and equipment and by households who want to

in-vest in new housing Thus, a lower price level reduces the interest rate, encourages

greater spending on investment goods, and thereby increases the quantity of goods and

services demanded.

T h e P r i c e L e v e l a n d N e t E x p o r t s : T h e E x c h a n g e R a t e E f

-f e c t As we have just discussed, a lower price level in the United States lowers

the U.S interest rate In response, some U.S investors will seek higher returns by

investing abroad For instance, as the interest rate on U.S government bonds falls,

a mutual fund might sell U.S government bonds in order to buy German

govern-ment bonds As the mutual fund tries to move assets overseas, it increases the

sup-ply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange The increased supsup-ply

of dollars causes the dollar to depreciate relative to other currencies Because each

dollar buys fewer units of foreign currencies, foreign goods become more

expen-sive relative to domestic goods This change in the real exchange rate (the relative

price of domestic and foreign goods) increases U.S exports of goods and services

and decreases U.S imports of goods and services Net exports, which equal

ex-ports minus imex-ports, also increase Thus, when a fall in the U.S price level causes U.S.

interest rates to fall, the real exchange rate depreciates, and this depreciation stimulates

U.S net exports and thereby increases the quantity of goods and services demanded.

S u m m a r y There are, therefore, three distinct but related reasons why a fall in

the price level increases the quantity of goods and services demanded: (1)

Con-sumers feel wealthier, which stimulates the demand for consumption goods (2)

Interest rates fall, which stimulates the demand for investment goods (3) The

ex-change rate depreciates, which stimulates the demand for net exports For all three

reasons, the aggregate-demand curve slopes downward

It is important to keep in mind that the aggregate-demand curve (like all

de-mand curves) is drawn holding “other things equal.” In particular, our three

ex-planations of the downward-sloping aggregate-demand curve assume that the

money supply is fixed That is, we have been considering how a change in the

price level affects the demand for goods and services, holding the amount of

money in the economy constant As we will see, a change in the quantity of money

shifts the aggregate-demand curve At this point, just keep in mind that the

aggregate-demand curve is drawn for a given quantity of money

W H Y T H E A G G R E G AT E - D E M A N D C U R V E M I G H T S H I F T

The downward slope of the aggregate-demand curve shows that a fall in the price

level raises the overall quantity of goods and services demanded Many other

fac-tors, however, affect the quantity of goods and services demanded at a given price

level When one of these other factors changes, the aggregate-demand curve shifts

Let’s consider some examples of events that shift aggregate demand We can

categorize them according to which component of spending is most directly

affected

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m C o n s u m p t i o n Suppose Americans suddenly

be-come more concerned about saving for retirement and, as a result, reduce their

current consumption Because the quantity of goods and services demanded at

any price level is lower, the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the left Conversely, imagine that a stock market boom makes people feel wealthy and less concerned about saving The resulting increase in consumer spending means a greater quan-tity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, so the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the right

Thus, any event that changes how much people want to consume at a given price level shifts the aggregate-demand curve One policy variable that has this effect is the level of taxation When the government cuts taxes, it encourages people to spend more, so the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the right When the government raises taxes, people cut back on their spending, and the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the left

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m I n v e s t m e n t Any event that changes how much firms want to invest at a given price level also shifts the aggregate-demand curve For instance, imagine that the computer industry introduces a faster line of computers, and many firms decide to invest in new computer systems Because the quantity of goods and services demanded at any price level is higher, the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the right Conversely, if firms become pes-simistic about future business conditions, they may cut back on investment spend-ing, shifting the aggregate-demand curve to the left

Tax policy can also influence aggregate demand through investment As we saw in Chapter 25, an investment tax credit (a tax rebate tied to a firm’s investment spending) increases the quantity of investment goods that firms demand at any given interest rate It therefore shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the right The repeal of an investment tax credit reduces investment and shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the left

Another policy variable that can influence investment and aggregate demand

is the money supply As we discuss more fully in the next chapter, an increase

in the money supply lowers the interest rate in the short run This makes borrow-ing less costly, which stimulates investment spendborrow-ing and thereby shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the right Conversely, a decrease in the money supply raises the interest rate, discourages investment spending, and thereby shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the left Many economists believe that throughout U.S history changes in monetary policy have been an important source of shifts in ag-gregate demand

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m G o v e r n m e n t P u r c h a s e s The most direct way that policymakers shift the aggregate-demand curve is through government pur-chases For example, suppose Congress decides to reduce purchases of new weapons systems Because the quantity of goods and services demanded at any price level is lower, the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the left Conversely, if state governments start building more highways, the result is a greater quantity of goods and services demanded at any price level, so the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the right

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m N e t E x p o r t s Any event that changes net exports for a given price level also shifts aggregate demand For instance, when Europe ex-periences a recession, it buys fewer goods from the United States This reduces U.S net exports and shifts the aggregate-demand curve for the U.S economy to

the left When Europe recovers from its recession, it starts buying U.S goods again,

shifting the aggregate-demand curve to the right

Net exports sometimes change because of movements in the exchange rate

Suppose, for instance, that international speculators bid up the value of the U.S

dollar in the market for foreign-currency exchange This appreciation of the dollar

would make U.S goods more expensive compared to foreign goods, which would

depress net exports and shift the aggregate-demand curve to the left Conversely,

a depreciation of the dollar stimulates net exports and shifts the

aggregate-demand curve to the right

S u m m a r y In the next chapter we analyze the aggregate-demand curve in

more detail There we examine more precisely how the tools of monetary and

fis-cal policy can shift aggregate demand and whether policymakers should use these

tools for that purpose At this point, however, you should have some idea about

why the aggregate-demand curve slopes downward and what kinds of events and

policies can shift this curve Table 31-1 summarizes what we have learned so far

Ta b l e 3 1 - 1

T HE A GGREGATE -D EMAND

C URVE : S UMMARY

1. The Wealth Effect: A lower price level increases real wealth, which encourages

spending on consumption.

2. The Interest-Rate Effect: A lower price level reduces the interest rate, which

encourages spending on investment.

3. The Exchange-Rate Effect: A lower price level causes the real exchange rate to

depreciate, which encourages spending on net exports.

W HY M IGHT THE A GGREGATE -D EMAND C URVE S HIFT ?

1. Shifts Arising from Consumption: An event that makes consumers spend more

at a given price level (a tax cut, a stock market boom) shifts the

aggregate-demand curve to the right An event that makes consumers spend less at a

given price level (a tax hike, a stock market decline) shifts the

aggregate-demand curve to the left.

2. Shifts Arising from Investment: An event that makes firms invest more at a

given price level (optimism about the future, a fall in interest rates due to an

increase in the money supply) shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the

right An event that makes firms invest less at a given price level (pessimism

about the future, a rise in interest rates due to a decrease in the money

supply) shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the left.

3. Shifts Arising from Government Purchases: An increase in government

purchases of goods and services (greater spending on defense or highway

construction) shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the right A decrease

in government purchases on goods and services (a cutback in defense or

highway spending) shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the left.

4. Shifts Arising from Net Exports: An event that raises spending on net exports

at a given price level (a boom overseas, an exchange-rate depreciation) shifts

the aggregate-demand curve to the right An event that reduces spending on

net exports at a given price level (a recession overseas, an exchange-rate

appreciation) shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the left.

Q U I C K Q U I Z : Explain the three reasons why the aggregate-demand curve slopes downward ◆ Give an example of an event that would shift the

aggregate-demand curve Which way would this event shift the curve?

T H E A G G R E G AT E - S U P P LY C U R V E

The aggregate-supply curve tells us the total quantity of goods and services that firms produce and sell at any given price level Unlike the aggregate-demand curve, which is always downward sloping, the aggregate-supply curve shows a

relationship that depends crucially on the time horizon being examined In the long run, the aggregate-supply curve is vertical, whereas in the short run, the aggregate-supply curve is upward sloping To understand short-run economic fluctuations, and

how the short-run behavior of the economy deviates from its long-run behavior,

we need to examine both the long-run aggregate-supply curve and the short-run aggregate-supply curve

W H Y T H E A G G R E G AT E - S U P P LY C U R V E

I S V E R T I C A L I N T H E L O N G R U N

What determines the quantity of goods and services supplied in the long run? We implicitly answered this question earlier in the book when we analyzed the

process of economic growth In the long run, an economy’s production of goods and ser-vices (its real GDP) depends on its supplies of labor, capital, and natural resources and on the available technology used to turn these factors of production into goods and services.

Because the price level does not affect these long-run determinants of real GDP, the long-run aggregate-supply curve is vertical, as in Figure 31-4 In other words, in the long run, the economy’s labor, capital, natural resources, and technology de-termine the total quantity of goods and services supplied, and this quantity sup-plied is the same regardless of what the price level happens to be

The vertical long-run aggregate-supply curve is, in essence, just an application

of the classical dichotomy and monetary neutrality As we have already discussed, classical macroeconomic theory is based on the assumption that real variables do not depend on nominal variables The long-run aggregate-supply curve is consis-tent with this idea because it implies that the quantity of output (a real variable) does not depend on the level of prices (a nominal variable) As noted earlier, most economists believe that this principle works well when studying the economy over a period of many years, but not when studying year-to-year changes Thus, the aggregate-supply curve is vertical only in the long run

One might wonder why supply curves for specific goods and services can be upward sloping if the long-run aggregate-supply curve is vertical The reason is

that the supply of specific goods and services depends on relative prices—the prices

of those goods and services compared to other prices in the economy For example, when the price of ice cream rises, suppliers of ice cream increase their production, taking labor, milk, chocolate, and other inputs away from the production of other goods, such as frozen yogurt By contrast, the economy’s overall production of

goods and services is limited by its labor, capital, natural resources, and

tech-nology Thus, when all prices in the economy rise together, there is no change in

the overall quantity of goods and services supplied

W H Y T H E L O N G R U N A G G R E G AT E

-S U P P LY C U R V E M I G H T -S H I F T

The position of the long-run aggregate-supply curve shows the quantity of goods

and services predicted by classical macroeconomic theory This level of production

is sometimes called potential output or full-employment output To be more accurate,

we call it the natural rate of output because it shows what the economy produces

when unemployment is at its natural, or normal, rate The natural rate of output is

the level of production toward which the economy gravitates in the long run

Any change in the economy that alters the natural rate of output shifts the

long-run aggregate-supply curve Because output in the classical model depends

on labor, capital, natural resources, and technological knowledge, we can

catego-rize shifts in the long-run aggregate-supply curve as arising from these sources

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m L a b o r Imagine that an economy experiences an

in-crease in immigration from abroad Because there would be a greater number of

workers, the quantity of goods and services supplied would increase As a result,

the long-run aggregate-supply curve would shift to the right Conversely, if many

workers left the economy to go abroad, the long-run aggregate-supply curve

would shift to the left

The position of the long-run aggregate-supply curve also depends on the

nat-ural rate of unemployment, so any change in the natnat-ural rate of unemployment

shifts the long-run aggregate-supply curve For example, if Congress were to raise

Quantity of Output Natural rate

of output

Price

Level

0

Long-run aggregate supply

P2

1 A change

in the price

level

2 does not affect the quantity of goods and services supplied

in the long run.

P1

F i g u r e 3 1 - 4 THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE-SUPPLY CURVE In the long run, the quantity of output supplied depends on the economy’s quantities of labor, capital, and natural resources and on the technology for turning these inputs into output The quantity supplied does not depend on the overall price level As a result, the long-run aggregate-supply curve

is vertical at the natural rate of output.

the minimum wage substantially, the natural rate of unemployment would rise, and the economy would produce a smaller quantity of goods and services As a result, the long-run aggregate-supply curve would shift to the left Conversely, if

a reform of the unemployment insurance system were to encourage unemployed workers to search harder for new jobs, the natural rate of unemployment would fall, and the long-run aggregate-supply curve would shift to the right

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m C a p i t a l An increase in the economy’s capital stock increases productivity and, thereby, the quantity of goods and services supplied

As a result, the long-run aggregate-supply curve shifts to the right Conversely, a decrease in the economy’s capital stock decreases productivity and the quantity of goods and services supplied, shifting the long-run aggregate-supply curve to the left

Notice that the same logic applies regardless of whether we are discussing physical capital or human capital An increase either in the number of machines or

in the number of college degrees will raise the economy’s ability to produce goods and services Thus, either would shift the long-run aggregate-supply curve to the right

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s An economy’s production depends on its natural resources, including its land, minerals, and weather A dis-covery of a new mineral deposit shifts the long-run aggregate-supply curve to the right A change in weather patterns that makes farming more difficult shifts the long-run aggregate-supply curve to the left

In many countries, important natural resources are imported from abroad

A change in the availability of these resources can also shift the aggregate-supply curve As we discuss later in this chapter, events occurring in the world oil market have historically been an important source of shifts in aggregate supply

S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m Te c h n o l o g i c a l K n o w l e d g e Perhaps the most important reason that the economy today produces more than it did a generation ago is that our technological knowledge has advanced The invention of the com-puter, for instance, has allowed us to produce more goods and services from any given amounts of labor, capital, and natural resources As a result, it has shifted the long-run aggregate-supply curve to the right

Although not literally technological, there are many other events that act like changes in technology As Chapter 9 explains, opening up international trade has effects similar to inventing new production processes, so it also shifts the long-run aggregate-supply curve to the right Conversely, if the government passed new regulations preventing firms from using some production methods, perhaps because they were too dangerous for workers, the result would be a leftward shift

in the long-run aggregate-supply curve

S u m m a r y The long-run aggregate-supply curve reflects the classical model of the economy we developed in previous chapters Any policy or event that raised real GDP in previous chapters can now be viewed as increasing the quantity of goods and services supplied and shifting the long-run aggregate-supply curve to the right Any policy or event that lowered real GDP in previous chapters can now