slide the impacts of climate change to mekong delta realities and solutions

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO... MEKONG DELTA’S SCENARIOSMekong delta is the largest agriculture and aquaculture area at Vietnam 2.4 million Hectares of agricultural area/ 4 million H

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO

MEKONG DELTA’S SCENARIOS

Mekong delta is the largest agriculture and aquaculture area at Vietnam (2.4 million Hectares of agricultural area/ 4 million Hectares of total)

Supply 50% of Rice, 65% of aquatic and 75% of Fruit for the whole country Exporting 7 million tons of Rice to the world in 2011.

A vulnerable area because most people are living along the sea with the elevation under 10 meters (LECZ)

Sea level

rise (m)

Losing Land (%)

Relocated population (%)

# 1.0 # 25 # 20 (3.5 mil.)

# 2.0 # 50 # 75 (14 mil )

Cần Tho

Không

theo tỉ lệ

Bac Liêu

3.00

2.00

0.00

Đồng Tháp

- 12 - 15 m

A - A

Sông Hậu

Sóc Trăng Đồng

Tháp

T.12 T.11

T.10 T.9

T.8 T.7

T.6 T.5

T.4 T.3

T.2

T.1 T.2 T.3 T.4 T.5 T.6 T.7 T.8 T.9 T.10 T.11 T.12 T.1

Rau Màu

Tôm - Lúa

Lúa Cá Lúa cá

Forecast figures for

the climate change

is simulated by

ECHAM4 model

with gas emission

scenario A2 and

the details using

PRECIS model with

high resolution.

Results from climate models, then regional hydrological simulation

modeling ocean rotation is integrated into a hydrodynamic model, EIA 3D model, is helpful for preventing flooding at Mekong Delta.

Average maximum temperature in 1980s và 2030s (anticipation)

Climate change forecast in the Mekong Delta

Average minimum temperature in 1980s và 2030s (anticipation)

Climate change at Mekong Delta

The number of hot days per annum in 1980s và 2030s (anticipation)

Annual rainfall (mm) in 1980s và 2030s (anticipation)

1980s 2030s Range 1980s Range 2030s 1st day >200mm 1980s 1st day >200mm 2030s

Accumulated rainfall: Median year (10.8 - 105.4 - Can Tho)

0.00 400.00 800.00 1200.00 1600.00 2000.00

1980s 2030s Range 1980s Range 2030s 1st day >200mm 1980s 1st day >200mm 2030s

Accumulated rainfall: Median year (9.4 - 105.8 - Soc Trang)

Change in annual rainfall in 2030s (anticipation)

Flood area at Mekong Delta in 1980s and 2030s (simulation)

15

In dry season, salty will penetrate deeper corresponding

to sea level rise.

Speculation in the 2030s: about 1.5 to 2.0% of the area being flooded by rising sea levels.

(Nguồn: SIWRP, 2008)

Weather factors Trend Major influenced areas

Nhiệt độ max, min, trung bình mùa khô  An Giang, Đồng Tháp, Long An, Cần Thơ,

Sóc Trăng, Kiên Giang

Số ngày nắng nóng trên 35 C mùa khô  Các vùng giáp biên giới với Cambodia,

vùng Tây sông Hậu Lượng mưa đầu mùa (tháng 5, 6, 7)  Toàn đồng bằng SCL

Lượng mưa cuối mùa (tháng 8, 9, 10)  Các vùng ven biển ĐBSCL

Lốc xoáy – gió lớn – sét  Các vùng ven biển, hải đảo ĐBSCL

Mưa lớn bất thường (> 100 mm/ngày)  Các vùng ven biển bán đảo Cà Mau, vùng

giữa sông Tiền và sông Hậu

Áp thấp nhiệt đới và bão ven biển  Các vùng ven biển bán đảo Cà Mau, vùng

giữa sông Tiền và sông Hậu

Sự thay đổi mực nước ngầm  Toàn đồng bằng

The trend of Climate and other disasters change at Mekong Delta

over the next 3 decades

Source: Tuấn, 2010

Reality and impact

of Climate Change

18

"Over 10 years, climate change has become one of the most concerning economic issues - social and environment in the world "

Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change has indicated that Mekong Delta in Vietnam is one of three deltas affected the

most by global climate change (IPCC 4th Assessment Report,

2007).

T.12 T.11

T.10 T.9

T.8 T.7

T.6 T.5

T.4 T.3

- River Basin at MD about 64 300 km²

in VN, with flow around 53,000

million m3

- Water dragging and retaining

decrease due to

20-year-deforestation, which in turns causing

flooding in rainy season and water

shortage in dry season

- Deforestation  soil erosion flowing

into the Sea Lake, causing lake

capacity reduction, water flows

directly into Hau and Tien rivers 

floods

River flows change

- Periodic flooding in the

Mekong Delta

- The peak flooding occurs

when the Tien river level at

Tan Chau > 4.2 m and the

water level in the Hau River in

Chau Doc > 3.5 m

- Prediction: Mekong flow

increased 10% during the

flood season (in Sept and

Oct), so flooding in the Delta

could be worse, come sooner

and last longer than today

Flooding

Flood area at MD from 1998 to 2000 and

in 2004

Mekong Delta

From "Living with Floods"

To "Living with Climate Change"

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• The abnormal weather

phenomena is increasing

more and more frequent.

• The natural disasters

and severe weather

conditions (floods,

droughts, tornadoes,

lightning, floods, waves,

) are increasing the

intensity and locations

Over 600 people were killed by Typhoon No 5 (LINDA) crossing the Mekong Delta coastal region (1997).

• Over 10 years: without

along the river and coast

exacerbates the impact of

land erosion and land slide.

Soil erosion

• In Vietnam, the total area of

frequent droughts: 300,000ha

• Droughts cause wildfires

Drought in Mar-April/2002 in

the MD has burnt about

5,000ha of forests in U Minh

Thuong

• Prediction: humidity tends to

reduce, rainfall decrease in dry

season in the Delta, so drought

may be more severe and

prolonged in the south in the

future

Drought

• Sea level rise, storm

surges, low river flow in

the dry season  sea

water intrusion into inland

water 10%-40% intrude

50 km - 70 km to MD.

• Salinity in the MD area of

dry season > 300,000 ha.

(almost 20% of the plain).

Salt water intrusion

Reduced flow leads to saltwater intrusion

in coastal areas more severely

2005

2010

CẦN THƠ

 70 km

The impact of climate change

to production development

Requirement of adjusting

production model according

to the agricultural region.

BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU

VÀ NƯỚC BIỂN DÂNG

Climate change brings Species Change by:

• Shifting residence

• Changing life cycle

• Development of new natural features

Nguyễn Hữu Ninh, 2011

Solutions and Adaptations to

Climate Change

35

Mekong Delta Residents - living with flood

•Xây đê bao;

Biện pháp công trình

Tăng cường năng lực

Điều chỉnh thời vụ/

canh tác

Quy hoạch

sử dụng đất

Bảo vệ và tồn trữ nước

Giảm pháp đê/đập

Nâng nền nhà

Quan trắc và

dự báo thời tiết

…

3T (Tiết giảm,

Tái sử dụng và

Tái chế)

BẠC LIÊU

AN GIANG

41

• Replace the rice with dry plants to adapt &

resist salinization

Planting straw mushroom to increase farmers' income and

reduce pollution

Burning in the rice field will…

Increase:

… air pollution

… CO 2

… loosing of rice straw

… kill beneficial breeds in the

soil

… create fire hazards to the

forest …

Mutual impact

Nature conservation in development

Nguyễn Hữu Ninh, 2011

An ninh lương thực

Security society

Sustainable Development

MRD need for sustainable

development on the basis of 3

background security tower

Security Water Sources Security Food

MD residents know how to adapt

to the changing nature

• Need to raise awareness for the

people and the local authorities

on climate change

•There must be close cooperation

between scientists - decision

makers - governments and governmental organizations - the locals to build a strategy and

non-action plan for responding and adapting with climate change

Thank you for your

attention

49

Response to climate change …

… for sustainable life of us