Vulnerability assessments to climate change for ecosystem based adaptation case study in van long wetland natural reserve gia vien district ninh binh province

Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change including climate variability and extremes to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY

***

STUDENT THESIS

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR ECOSYSTEM BASED ADAPTATION: CASE STUDY IN VAN LONG

WETLAND NATURAL RESERVE, GIA VIEN DISTRICT,

NINH BINH PROVINCE

Major: Natural Resources Management

Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management

Student: Mai Phuong Thao Student ID: 145309881

Class: K59A Natural Resources Management Course: 2014 - 2018

Advanced Education Program Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA

Supervisor: Nguyen Thi Thanh An

ABSTRACT

During 2 months conducted this study, I received lots of help and encouragement from many people without whom this study would have never happened First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Mrs Nguyen Thi Thanh An for the continuous support of my student thesis study and research, for her motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge Her guidance helped me in all the time

of research and writing of this thesis

Beside my advisor, I would like to thank the administration of Vietnam Forestry University, Faculty of Forest Resources and Environmental Management, Department of Environmental with enthusiasm to impart valuable knowledge for us

My sincere thanks also goes to many people for their contribution to this research; Mr.Mai Van Quyen- Manager in Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province; in Gia Vien district who provided me many useful knowledge about local knowledge about ecosystems, management system and create some great opportunities for me to meet and work with local people in Van Long NR I would especially like to thank local people in communes, they spent more time answering lots of question related to climate change impacts and preparedness and help me to understand situation and challenges they are facing

Finally, I would further like to thank my family, who always support and helped me

in my research

Hanoi, 29 August 2017 Mai Phuong Thao

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT i

TABLE OF CONTENTS ii

LIST OF FIGURE iv

LIST OF TABLE v

GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED IN THE THESIS vi

ABBREVIATION viii

Keyword viii

CHAPTER 1.INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Introduction and problem statement 1

1.2 Study site 3

CHAPTER 2.RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 5

2.1 Research goal 5

2.2 Research objectives 5

2.3 Research questions 5

CHAPTER 3.METHODOLOGY 6

3.1 Research framework 6

3.2 Data collection 7

3.2.1 Secondary data 7

3.2.2 Primary data 11

3.3 Data analysis methods 12

3.3.1 CAM process 13

3.3.2 Object, variables and tools in Vulnerability assessment 15

CHAPTER 4.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 25

4.1 Defining social-ecological systems profile in Van Long NR 25

4.1.1 Ecological profile 25

4.1.2 Social profile 27

4.1.3 Economical profile 28

4.1.4 SESs Profile 29

4.2 Assessing potential impacts and vulnerability of SESs in Van Long NR to climate change 30

4.2.1 Exposure 31

4.2.2 Potential impact assessment 36

4.2.3 Vulnerability assessment 42

4.3 Section summary 48

4.4 Proposing Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) intervention(s) for Van Long NR 52

5.2 Limitations and suggestions further studies 55

CHAPTER 5.CONCLUSION 58

REFERENCES 60 APPENDICE

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 1 Research framework 6Figure 2 ICEM CAM methodology 14Figure 3 Ecosystem-based Adaptation conceptual framework 15

LIST OF TABLE

Table 3.1 Detail about data collection and sources 9

Table 3.2 General information about interviewees 11

Table 3.3 Impact matrix 22

Table 3.4 Vulnerability matrix 24

Table 4.1 Social-ecological systems in Van Long NR 30

Table 4.2 Climate stress degree 31

Table 4.3 Future trend of climate 33

Table 4.4 Exposure level 35

Table 4.5 Sensitivity level of SES in Van Long NR 37

Table 4.6 Impact level of climate change on SESs in Van Long NR 39

Table 4.7 Adaptive capacity of social ecological system in Van Long NR 42

Table 4.8 Vulnerability assessment 45

Table 4.9 Potential Impacts to and Vulnerability of SESs by same threats 49

Table 4.10 Potential Impacts and Vulnerability caused by threats to SESs 51

GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED IN THE THESIS

Climate change (CC): the change of climate status from the average state and/or the climate variability in a long period of time, usually several decades or longer Climate change may be due to the internal natural processes or external impacts, or human activities including land use process which cause changes in the composition of the atmosphere

CAM: A method of assessing the vulnerability to climate change based upon the factors of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity

EbA: Ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation (EbA) are defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)1 as “the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, as part of an overall adaptation strategy” (CBD Secretariat, 2009)

Exposure: degree of climate stress upon a particular unit (of populations, resources, property, and so on); it may be represented as changes in climate conditions It is characterized by intensity, frequency, or the magnitude of climate of variation events or patterns

Sensitivity: degree to which a system will be affected by, positively or negatively, climate change The consequence can be direct (such as changes in plant productivity due

to changes in temperature) or indirect (such as damages caused by increased flood frequency, which is a result of sea level rise)

Ecosystem: A dynamic complex of plants or animals, and microorganism‟s population and their non-living environment interacting as a functional unit Humans make

an integral part of the ecosystem

Socio-ecological systems (SESs) Socio-ecological systems (referred also as environment systems, or human -nature systems) emphasize that human beings and the

human-nature are interconnected, interactive in a continuous manner and mutually develop, thus, become integral systems There is no single definition of SESs Systems theory differentiates various types of systems, which include functional, structural and hierarchical systems with different attributes such as being closed, open, static, dynamic, simple or complex SESs is characterized by dynamic complexity with multi-forms and multi-variables The specific attributes of a system depends on the selected definition (Hummel et al 2011) In term of vulnerability assessment, researcher developed approach

to identify and analyze SESs for the purpose of vulnerability assessment and identification

of Ecosystem based Adaptation solutions, not recommending on how to recognize and identify Social-Ecological System separately

Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to the current or expected impacts of climate change to mitigate climate change risks

Climate Change Adaptation (CCA): is the adjustment in the natural systems or in human activities in order to cope with the current or expected impacts of climate to mitigate climate change risks in the future and to recognize and take advantages of the benefits from climate change

Vulnerability: the extent that a system is vulnerable or unable to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change, including climate change and extreme weather events (IPCC 2014)

ABBREVIATION

CCA Climate Change Adaptation

CAM Climate change adaptation and mitigation methodology

CBD Convention on Biodiversity

EbA Ecosystem-based Adaptation

ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management

IMHEN Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment

MONRE Ministry of Natural resources and Environment

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction and problem statement

Climate change, include sea level rise and unpredictable extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, storms, tropical low pressures will be the most serious challenge to low and relatively flat areas, especially fresh wetland areas Wetland conservation to against climate change and maintaining the ecosystem services from it is crucial Wetlands have high biodiversity and play an important role in economic and social development because it brings several ecosystem services such as: environmental protection and disaster prevention, the accumulation and limitation of environmental pollution, climate regulation, maintaining biodiversity and protecting the environment, balance of O2, atmospheric CO2, local climate regulation (rainfall, temperature, humidity) and reduce the greenhouse effect Wetlands also make communities more resilient to the impacts of climate change They reduce the impacts from floods, droughts, and cyclones and provide buffers against sea level rise and storm surges Wetlands conservation, sustainable use, and restoration can contribute significantly as efficient and effective nature-based solutions for local community to mitigate and adapt with climate change impacts This is idea of Ecosystem-based Adaptation: take advantage of ecosystem to mitigate or adapt with adverse effects from climate change Ecosystem- based adaptation solutions have been applied in many regions

Viet Nam is a natural disaster-prone country, which is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change Growth population, urbanization, and rapid economic development impact issues have collided to threaten the country‟s sustainable development Regarding wetland management, wetlands play a vital role in the lives of the local people and the socio-economic development of the country Wetland is very diverse with an area of approximately 5,810,000 ha, accounting for about 8% of all wetlands in

Asia, of which freshwater wetland accounts for about 10% of total wetlands Among

Vietnam's wetlands, there are 68 wetland areas (341,833 ha) with biodiversity and

environmental importance in many different forms (Ministry of Technology and

Environment, 2001) However, available data and information about the location and status

of wetlands, as well as legal frameworks and management policies relating to wetlands

have been dispersed and incomplete The lack of a common framework for vulnerability

assessment and measuring adaptive capacity has led to gaps in mainstreaming of potential

solutions in policy and society to help social-economical system as well as ecosystem deal

with climate change due to shortage of information and approaches to implement or

monitor the contribution of ecosystems to adaptation

There is need for a common framework, methodology and indicators to be used for

vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment, which should include both socioeconomic

and biophysical variables and measures of economic strengths, human capacities and

environmental capabilities for wetland nature reserve Also, there are only few researches

and studies about vulnerability of inland wetland areas for effective responses to climate

change There is also need for vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning in a

participatory manner And in term of proposing nature-based solutions response to climate

change adverse effects for Van Long NR in sustainable manners, I conducts the study:”

Vulnerability Assessments to climate change for Ecosystem based Adaptation: Case

study in Van Long Wetland Natural Reserve, Gia Vien District, Ninh Binh Province”

1.2 Study site

Van Long is one of the largest North Vietnam inland wetland, is located in Gia Vien district, Ninh Binh province It is about 90 kilometers from Hanoi to the south and 20 kilometers from Ninh Binh city to Van Long nature reserve Since 1960, more than 30 km

of a dike system was built on the left bank of the river that made 3,500 ha in Van Long became a wetland, allowing migratory birds feeding and promoting biodiversity In 1999,

it became a nature reserve, listed as a wetland protected area and special-use forest in Vietnam The isolated limestone mountains surround by watercourse "accidentally" became the salvation of many animals and plants escape from human destruction

Van Long NR is located on the administrative boundary of 7 communes of Gia Vien district: Gia Hung, Lien Son, Gia Van, Gia Lap, Gia Tan and Gia Thanh In the north,

it adjacent to Hoa Binh province; southward is Cot lagoon; east side is Ha Nam province and the west is Xich Tho commune, Nho Quan district, Ninh Binh province Van Long has been put into operation since 1998 and now it is an attractive tourist destination of Vietnam with largest white-tailed langur population in Vietnam Van Long has the craggy and steep terrain with more than three-quarters of the nature reserve area is limestone ridge This ridge has many peaks: Sum (233 m), Mao Ga (308 m), Ba Chon (428 m), Co Tien ( 116 m ), Meo Cao (206 m), Dong Quyen (328 m), May ( 138 m ), Luong (128 m) and Mieu ( 72

m ), stretch from Northwest-Southeast

There are some vegetation types: natural-regenerated secondary forest on limestone; formation class shrub and herbaceous vegetation in the dry valley; vegetation at slope and top of limestone; hygrophilous and aquatic plants Most of the land area is covered by vegetation In addition, cultivation areas, villages in the region are also the provide food and shelters for many groups of plants and animal Wetlands area strongly

Boi River, and Hoang Long River The hydrological regime is also dependent on seasonal

rainfall in the year During the growing season, aquatic plants often absorb all nutrients in

the photic zone, limit the biomass development of phytoplankton and lead to the food

shortage in the aphotic zone In contrast, during the dry season, vegetation degradation

often causes the anaerobic benthic zone, hinder the life of oxygenated and edible species

Thus, dominant animals in the lagoon are herbivorous, plant-based scraps consumers, mud

swallowers, and low oxygen-tolerant species, such as crabs, snails, catfishes

CHAPTER 2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 2.1 Research goal

To analyze vulnerability of social ecological systems to climate change to climate

change to propose Ecosystem-based solutions for sustainable management in Van Long

Nature Wetland Reserve, Gia Vien dítrict, Ninh Binh province

2.2 Research objectives

– To define social-ecological systems (SESs) profile in Van Long Nature Reserve

– To assess potential impacts and vulnerability of social-ecological systems in Van

Long Nature Reserve to climate change

– To propose Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) intervention(s) for Van Long

Nature Reserve

2.3 Research questions

- What is current state of SESs in Van Long NR?

- What is the vulnerable social ecological system in Van Long NR?

- Which recommendations should be considered to benefits both human and

ecosystems for both sustainable development and climate change adaptation?

CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Research framework

There are three main steps in this thesis, include data collection, data analysis to find the result is vulnerability and give recommendations to reduce it Vulnerability assessment is the central idea of this thesis Vulnerability assessment provides the most important output is the vulnerability level of defined systems Social ecological system is the object this vulnerability assessment working on

The first step is data collection Two types of data are primary data and secondary data is collected Sources and expected outcomes are detailed in section 3.2

Figure 1 Research framework

The second step is data analysis This thesis follows CAM process, which includes

5 tasks Identifying and analyzing SESs is just the first and second tasks, defining systems for vulnerability assessment Three crucial variables in vulnerability assessment are

exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Due to differences on system components and human management capabilities, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are selected and grouped based on SESs Exposure uses both primary data for climate stress degree and secondary data for future trend of climate Combination of exposure and sensitivity from primary data

is Potential Impacts

The third step is the result and recommendations Vulnerability is combination of the Potential Impact with adaptive capacity from primary data The aim of any climate change adaptation solutions, include Ecosystem-based Adaptations, is to reduce the vulnerability of any systems to the risks of climate change

The first secondary data is governmental offices and researches and studies This is statistical data about trend, challenges, and compositions of social, economic and ecological features It also provides knowledge about the baseline of systems and prediction the shifts to systems which will occur irrespective of climate change Governmental offices are district statistic office and Van Long NR office Researches and

studies have been used are: “Biodiversity in Van Long NR”, “Relationship between local people livelihoods and conservation activities in Van Long NR”, “Flora biodiversity in Van Long NR”, “Status and Recommendations for sustainable ecotourism development in Van Long, nature wetland reserve”, “Evaluating and assessing community participation in wild animal conservation, Van Long NR, Ninh Binh province” To map social-ecological systems, base maps, boundary maps, ecosystem maps from Van Long NR were collected

The second secondary data called “Climate model” from the Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment The future trend of climate parameters (include temperature, precipitation, and the number of extremely hot days) is calculated from data called “Climate model‟‟ in form of GRID raster This Climate model is made by Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment (IMHEN) for both dry season (from December to May) and wet season (from July to November

Table 3.1 Detail about data collection and sources

Steps Characterizing SESs Mapping SESs Calculating

change in climatic parameters

Identifying:

Climate stress level

Identifying:

Sensitivity

Identifying:

Adaptive capacity

Statistic data from Governmental offices Researches and studies

Governmental offices

IMHEN, MONRE

25 local people

25 local people 25 local people Van Long NR

Management Office manager Leaders of 2 villages: Da Han and Vuon Thi

Van Long NR Management Office manager Leaders of 2 villages: Da Han and Vuon Thi

Required

information

Population Labor Social composition Main livelihood and livelihood shifts Environment quality

Base map Ecosystems distribution map Boundary map

Model and data related to temperature, precipitation and storms (see Appendix 7)

Duration, intensity, magnitude, frequency of extreme events

Past and potential damages

Supports from government Mechanism in implementing new solutions

local authorities

Criteria for 5 levels of sensitivity

Forest/ water quality status

knowledge Preparations and responses to damages Accessibility(

information and resource) Output Past and existing

situation, trends and drivers of the SESs

SESs distribution Future trend of

climate

Climate stress degree

Criteria for Sensitivity level Sensitivity level

Adaptive capacity of SESs

3.2.2 Primary data

The primary data is collected from local people and local authority The sampling technique chosen was snowball sampling Primary data collection method was used as the qualitative method, involves open-ended questions with informal conversation The interviews were carried out in person (face to face) with a total of 28 people (25 local people and managers) The study selected local people who live in study site for more than

30 years Due to the fact that most of people involve in ecotourism are women, the majority of interviewees were women The interviews were focused on three major themes with 2 types of interviewees:

Table 3.2 General information about interviewees

Types of interviewees Local people

25 interviewees (14 women & 11 men)

Local authorities

3 managers (Van Long NR manager, Da han and Vuon Thi village header)

Themes

Exposure Climate stress level

sensitivity Adaptive

capacity

Knowledge of local people Accessibility (information and resource)

Preparations and responses to damages

Knowledge of local authorities

Enable environment (Organization capacity) Required information Duration, intensity, magnitude,

frequency of extreme events Past and potential damages

Accessibility (information and resource)

Supports from government,

Preparations and responses to damages Mechanism in implementing

new solutions Criteria Lived in study site for more around 30

years

Direct participated in management study site

Job/Responsibility Farmers, ecotourism worker (sailors),

participated households (farmer) in forest allocation program

Van Long NR Management Office manager

3.3 Data analysis methods

This thesis follows CAM process The CAM process - Climate change adaptation and mitigation methodology- includes five primary tasks for adaptation planning Vulnerability assessment is third tasks Ecosystem-based Adaptation is only an option in

the fourth task of the CAM process, defining a range of options In this thesis, researcher combines the first and second task as system profiles Vulnerability assessment is third task, conducted for these systems And thesis stops at seventh mission, in the fourth task – select Ecosystem-based adaptation options

3.3.1 CAM process

The first task of CAM process is determining the systems which will be influenced, the geographic and sector need to be assessed In this thesis, ecological, social and economic factors need to be considered together, as parts of an integrated whole That is the reason why “socio-ecological system” (SESs) - social-ecological systems have been used as a unit for analyzing

The second task includes 2 goals, include: „describing the past and existing situation, trends, and drivers of the selected systems‟ is analyzing of past extreme events and trends of selected systems, requires a baseline assessment conducting and shifts predicting to systems which will occur irrespective of climate change And „projecting climate change threats‟ is finding out the climate change threats, requires climate modeling and downscaling of future climate and hydrology against various scenarios

The third task is vulnerability assessment Impact and vulnerability assessment include analysis of the projected climatic threats to the target systems The impact assessment combines the level of exposure to key system components and assets and their relative sensitivity to the threats The vulnerability is a measure which considers the impact and the capacity of the component or asset to adapt to it

The fourth task is developing a range of options for integrated adaptation interventions With limited resources, it is not possible or necessary to do everything at

once so we need to identify priorities In this thesis, this response is Ecosystem-based Adaptation, which brings co-benefit to both human and ecosystem

Source: CAM process, ICEM

Figure 2 ICEM CAM methodology

In the first and second task, it is essential to clearly define Social-Ecological Systems, which are objects for vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions Social-ecological systems are made up of 3 factors: key ecological, social and economic descriptors The results from this process are Social-ecological system profile and Social-Ecological Systems map, which establish an understanding of past and present status and trends in these systems

Vulnerability assessment is third task, which able to prioritize the vulnerable ecological system or components of these systems Vulnerability assessment aims to analyze all variables of vulnerability, include exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity The vulnerability assessment in the thesis based on the framework:

social-Exposure* Sensitivity = Potential impact (3.1)

Potential impact / Adaptive capacity = Vulnerability (3.2)

In (3.1) function, level Impact is the combination of Exposure level with Sensitivity, finalized Impact assessment matrix In function (3.2), impacts level from (3.1)

together with Adaptive capacity, bases on Vulnerability assessment matrix, to find out Vulnerability level

The final task is recommending potential Ecosystem-based Adaptation to enhance the strengths and reduce weaknesses From identified the strengths and weaknesses exist in these social-ecological systems, Ecosystem-based Adaptation what people should do to manage it

Figure 3 Ecosystem-based Adaptation conceptual framework

3.3.2 Object, variables and tools in Vulnerability assessment

Generally, there are six components participate in vulnerability assessment include object, three variables and two tools Object is social-ecological system, three variables are exposure and sensitivity, adaptive capacity, two tools are impact matrix and vulnerability matrix Vulnerability of SESs is the final outcome from vulnerability assessment This is description about these components

3.3.2.1 Object

Object of vulnerability assessment is SESs Impacts from, resilience and preparedness for climate change do not only focus on natural components but also

threats caused by climate change to all aspects, this thesis selects “socio-ecological systems” (SESs) In term of vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions, researcher captures important variables into 3 categories that made up social-ecological systems: key ecological, social and economic descriptors SESs will be used to classify sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Secondary data from governmental offices and researches and studies are collected data related to 3 groups: the Ecological profile, Social profile and Economical profile (Social-economical profile) Categories should be the concern, include past and existing situation, trends and challenges This data, in fact, is baseline assessment conducting for social-ecological systems and predicting the shifts to systems which will occur irrespective

of climate change

Mapping all of the SESs across the entire Van Long NR is a critical part of this process SESs map can be used as a tool in conservation to prioritize the most appropriate and co-benefits solutions The ability to map landscape values makes it possible to display social-ecological hotspots -regions that contain significant social with ecological value SES hotspot maps provide a visual tool for land planners and managers that enable the visualization of human/landscape relationships The identification of SESs hotspots can help identify areas of high concern (e.g., conflicting landscape values), areas of intense sociocultural/biophysical processes (e.g., a highly valued area for recreation which is physically fragile), or prospective conservation areas with high ecological value but low social value All modeling tool outputs and socio-economic analysis can be linked directly

to GIS analysis making it the interpretive core of the integrated assessment and visualization methodologies

SES map is visual tool to illustrate ecosystems distribution with local main livelihood (how can they benefit from ecosystem.) To map SESs in the study site, the

researcher follows the map processing procedure (standardizing the data, converting into the same reference frame, with shapefile (shp.) format) The satellite image is used to illustrate the status of ecosystems, of which social-ecological systems locate

3.3.2.2 Variables

There are 3 variables in vulnerability assessment, include adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure It is impossible to combine all variables the at once, so exposure and sensitivity are combine together to find Potential Impact level before combine with Adaptive Capacity Potential Impact level is synthesized by Sensitivity and Exposure using Impact matrix The vulnerability is synthesized Potential Impact level with Adaptive capacity using Vulnerability matrix Sensitivity and adaptive capacity will be grouped by the Social-Ecological system, lead to differences in Potential Impact level and Vulnerability level of these Social-Ecological Systems

3.3.2.2.1 Exposure

Exposure is influenced by long-term changes in climate conditions, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events with changes in climate variability There are also 2 elements to consider in exposure The first is the degree of climate stress on the system, and second is the future trend of climate The future trend of climate requires specific knowledge, but climate stress degree is based on local knowledge

To find the exposure level, future trend of climatic variability need to be predicted Climate, from definition, is the statistics of weather Calculating statistical figures from climate change scenario raster is required to forecast future trend of climatic variability Future trend of climate parameters (include temperature, precipitation and number of extreme hot days) is calculated from data called “Climate model‟‟ in form of GRID raster

It includes 2 types of GRID raster First one recorded from 1985 to 2005 is baseline,

collected from all Vietnam weather stations and calculate by interpolation Other raster type is forecasted change using IPCC model to make forecasted change in 2030, 2050 and

2100 to illustrate how these change happen (Figure 5,6,7,8 , Appendix 6 ) Zonal Statistic

as Table is a tool which was used to calculate statistical parameters about precipitation, number of extreme hot days and temperature After that, this table is exported into dBase type Importing and converting dBase to Excel database (.xlsx or xls type) This thesis only select mean precipitation, number of extreme hot days and mean temperature in both forecasted and baseline raster for only Van Long NR Final result is collected into template table

Maximum

Temperature

(°C)

Mar – May Jun – Aug Sep – Nov Dec – Feb Number of

extreme hot

days - over

>35 °C (days)

Mar – May Jun – Aug

Sep – Nov

Dec – Feb

The primary data about knowledge of local people about climate stress degree on SESs, includes: duration, frequency, scope and causes and magnitude of extreme events is noted Result is collected into template table:

Extreme events Scope Duration Frequency Causes and Magnitude

3.3.2.2 Sensitivity

Sensitivity is the degree to which a threat will negatively affect the integrity or operation of the asset It is simply how components of the system will be affected by, or responsive to given exposure In this thesis, term sensitivity is used in the social-ecological system approach with impacts on different assets of different social-ecological systems so sensitivity is also different

The primary data about sensitivity from interview process is noted The result from interviewing about negatively affects and the asset integrity or operation is grouped by Social-ecological systems Due to the fact that differences in system components, sensitivity in different SESs varied That is reason why responsive degree and damages of each system is different among SESs is not the same, even they face the same level of exposure

3.3.2.2.3 Adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity in this thesis is adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems - in which the natural ecosystems have been radically transformed “Natural capital” is of central importance Natural capital is the goods and services provided by the natural environment, which is made up by living systems And in terms of identifying Ecosystem-based Adaptation actions, peoples‟ capacity to manage this natural capital and direct the

change, and the capacity and political will of governmental entities to deploy those resources In this thesis, the adaptive capacity of inhabitants and Van Long NR management board at the nature reserve level is considered Adaptive capacity of human in each social-ecological system is different even with the same exposure due to differences

in knowledge, innovations, motivation, rights and management ability and experiences

The primary data about adaptive capacity from interview process is noted and grouped by SESs, too Human in each ecological system react differently even with the climate change or any disturbances They also have different knowledge about and experiences about climate change impacts To capture the most relevant human reactions

in different social-ecological systems, only the most relevant and important features are selected Detail about 4 factors of adaptive capacity is analyzed in Appendix 10

3.3.2.3 Tools

In CAM methodology, vulnerability assessment uses matrices include impact matrix and vulnerability matrix Impact matrix is a guide to the final projected impact of a threat on an asset given the assessed levels of exposure and sensitivity And vulnerability matrix provides the key for combining the impact with the adaptive capacity to define vulnerability

3.3.2.3.1 Impact matrix

Impact is combination of exposure level of SESs with their sensitivity Impact matrix is a guide to finalize potential impact of a threat on an asset given the assessed levels of exposure and sensitivity In this matrix, Impact level ranges from Very low to Very High level, set up from science-based information and supplemented through expert judgment in deciding on the level of exposure and level of sensitivity

The first column is Sensitivity level In this thesis, experts who set up criteria for sensitivity are Van Long NR manager and village leaders Sensitivity level is divided 5 levels from Very Low to Very High, based on local authorities interview (leaders of hamlets and Van Long NR manager) (vertical, first row, Table 3.1) In general, they suppose that some extreme events may beneficial and it is ranked at Very low level For example, sometimes storms create suitable conditions for forest development and seed dispersal Another example is dry area like Da Han hamlet, some irregular rainfall may bring water source for crops In contrast, Very high level is given when deaths occur, for example, extreme cold spells or flood killed cattle and totally swept away crops Other level depend magnitude of impacts

The first row is exposure level In this thesis, based on geographical scale of study site, Exposure level is divided into 5 levels, from Very Low to Very High (horizontal, first column, Table 3.1) Exposure level includes climate stress degree and changes in future climatic parameters Climate stress degree has 4 factors: duration, frequency, magnitude, intensity of extreme events Change in future climatic parameters includes change in precipitation, change in temperature and change in duration of extreme events

Level of Potential Impact is identified by intersected cell of Sensitivity and Exposure, represented by row and column For example, a system which has High exposure level (or suffer more) and High sensitivity level (easier to be damaged) gets High impacts level Simply, a system has Medium impact level when it faces Low exposure but has High sensitivity level

Table 0.3 Impact matrix

Source: Refer from CAM process, ICEM,2011

3.3.2.3.2 Vulnerability matrix

From the definition, a vulnerable system is “system that is sensitive to changes and extremes in climate and hydrology and one for which the ability to adapt is constrained” The vulnerability is the combination of Potential Impacts level with adaptive capacity In CAM methodology, vulnerability matrix provides the key for combining the potential impact with the adaptive capacity to define vulnerability Vulnerability also ranges from Very low to Very High level

In this matrix, the potential impact level is the first row in the vulnerability matrix (horizontal, first row, Table 3.2) Impacts from climate change, like other disturbances, can disrupt or damage social-ecological systems functions and property and take days, weeks, months, years for these system absorbs disturbances, re-organize themselves to recover At the highest level, disturbances kill living things, causes deaths, loss critical component of that social-ecological system, include human, shift regime of systems or change these

social-ecological systems to a new system Potential Impacts are divided into 5 levels, from Very High to Very Low In case that impact lasts in only a few days, leaves inconvenience for social-ecological systems in the study site, it is classified at Very Low level Level of disruption to social-ecological systems defines whether it is Low or Medium level High impact level occurs when consequences last long (years) and damage components and functions of social-ecological systems The highest level occurs when systems, in this thesis, is social-ecological systems, shift to another

The adaptive capacity level is the first column in the vulnerability matrix In this thesis, adaptive capacity is human capability There are also 5 levels of adaptive capacity The level of adaptive capacity is evaluated by 4 factors: The ability to access and control livelihood activities and resources, Knowledge, Innovation, Enabling environment Vulnerability level also ranges from Very High to Very Low level Very Low level or Very limited institutional capacity, no technical and financial support means no solution available, people and management institutions do not have any experiences, knowledge and preparations for unexpected situations, like extreme events Low level is limited institutional capacity and limited access to the technical and financial resource, people find

it hard or cannot access to local resources, information access is limited to prepare and recover from damages, but they have some experiences and traditional solutions to deal with this problems At higher level, Medium level, people know about climate change, forecast information, they are able to use local resources to prepare for the unexpected situation caused by climate change but supports from the government is limited In High level of adaptive capacity, people actively prepare for climate change in long-term and easy access to local resources to prepare and recover from damages; they also receive support to reduce the risks Adaptive capacity is Very High when people using high

technology to prepare in long-term and deal with extremes events They receive both financial and technical support to do that

Level of Potential Vulnerability is identified by intersected cell of Potential Impact with Adaptive Capacity, represented by column and row For example, a system which has High impact level (from Impact matrix) and Very low Adaptive Capacity (limited institutional capacity, knowledge, experiences and access to technical and financial resources) gets Very High vulnerability level Or a system has Medium vulnerability level when it has Low Adaptive Capacity (limited institutional capacity, knowledge and access

to technical and financial resources but have experiences to deal with) but faces Low impact

Table 0.4 Vulnerability matrix

Source: CAM methodology, ICEM, 2011

CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 Defining social-ecological systems profile in Van Long NR

Research applied the approach to identify and analyze SES based on ecological profile, economical profile and social profile SESs defining is the first steps to know that which systems the thesis working on Purpose of this thesis is vulnerability assessment and identification of Ecosystem-based Adaptation solutions for Social-Ecological Systems, not recommending on how to recognize and identify Social-Ecological Systems separately, so only significant features are captured

Secondary forest is the main ecosystem in Van Long NR After clear cut from last decade, Van Long primary forest is no longer available, so there is only secondary limestone forest with low canopy cover and grassland after cultivation Most of plant is light demanding species, well adapt to extensive light conditions and drought tolerant Due

to low regeneration rate, some areas plant high economic value and short rotation eucalyptus and acacia to increase forest cover Available land for cultivation is limited and seasonal change Swamp is habitat of hundreds aquatic species and do not have any

significant change Detail about ecosystem composition, conditions, extent and status, and trend is summarized in Table 0.1, Appendix 4

Limestone forest is high biodiversity ecosystems and very important ecosystem because it provides habitat and food for endemic species and migratory birds nesting Flora and fauna in Van Long natural reserve has very specific characteristics of Red River delta limestone karst and wetland ecosystems Van long is/used to be habitat for many species of plants and animals listed in the Vietnam Red Book such as bear, leopard Van Long NR

is also home of Trachypithecus delacouri, an endemic primate in Vietnam with more than

40 white-tailed langurs Especially it is the habitat of a rare insect that requires extreme fresh water environment, which is considered extinct, Lethocerus indicus (cà cuống chân bơi) In the dry season, Van Long is the wintering place of migratory birds from the North There has dozens of pheasants, grey heron, teal and hundreds of white stork, night herons

In addition, limestone forest ecosystem also brings various benefits to human There are 722 species belong to 454 genera,158 families and 542 species bring provisioning services and more than 30% of fauna in Van Long can be extracted to medicine, 147 species provide food ( Hoang Van Sam, 2013) Other products can be collected are ornamental trees, essential oil, fiber and starch Van Long NR has great contribution in climate regulation Limestone mountains range and watercourse keep temperature in Van Long lower than surrounding regions Flood prevention also is also one

of regulating services from Van Long NR Van Long wetland area controls the floods in the other side and downstream zones, while reducing the risks to dike system Wetland area also brings benefits to aquaculture, water for irrigation and domestic purposes Moreover, Van Long NR provides aesthetic value for ecotourism

4.1.1.2 Threats

It is noteworthy that the Van Long NR is currently facing new threats Firstly, an industrial park along 1A National Highway from the distance about four to five kilometers Secondly, a cement plant with a capacity of 2.7 million tons per year, which was not previously planned in the industrial zone, is rapidly expanding near the southeast of the nature reserve will disturb the environment as well as natural habitat Up to now, official reports on the potential environmental impact of these industrial activities are not conducted Thirdly, provincial road, which connects Ninh Binh and Hoa Binh province, crossing nature reserve causes habitat fragmentation, noises and prevent endanger species move across the habitats

Fourth threat comes from ecotourism development and behavior of tourists Nguyen Van Linh (2016) figures out that there is a close relationship between number of tourists and garbage Number of visitors increases contemporary with disposal garbage in nature reserve Finally, there are many zone are at risk due to sewage water At some polluted or contaminated sites, the pollution is caused mainly by organic substances, especially in residential area The BOD is higher than 25 mg / L compared to the Vietnam standard (TCVN 5492/1995) only at the dyke base and the main road from Gia Hoa to Gia Thanh (Vu Trung Tang, 2005) Pollution source also comes from Day river, because Van Long NR locate in downstream region

4.1.2 Social profile

In Van Long NR, most of local people are Kinh (98%) There are only 2% are Muong people Most of manual workers are farmers These agricultural workers are not trained Farmers and rely on their experience as well as traditional farming practices, education background, experience, aptitude, and strength is quiet homogenous They take

part in both manual works and services Detail about social characteristic in Table 0.2 Appendix 5

4.1.3 Economical profile

Economic profile describes main livelihood of the local people in Van Long NR, which is official recorded in statistical data, include contribution to local economic and development direction In this thesis, economical profile is important in defining Social-Ecological Systems due to homogeneity of social aspect Detail about economical characteristic in Table 0.3 Appendix 6

4.1.3.1 Main livelihood

There are 4 main type of livelihood in Van Long NR, they are farming, livelihood from animal husbandry, forest-based livelihood and ecotourism Firstly, farming is main traditional livelihood, distributed unevenly among communes Secondly, livestock contributes an important role in household economy Third is forest-based livelihood, with two activities are forest management and forest protection Forth is ecotourism, an alternatives livelihoods in Van Long NR, which recently appear Forest-based livelihood and ecotourism are new livelihoods with minor contribution to local economic

4.1.3.2.Dynamic of livelihood in the area

Ecotourism is a response for Van Long NR establishment Van Long NR is an income source for local people through ecotourism Conservation activities in Van Long

NR have profound impacts on the livelihoods of local people: grazing; timber harvesting, firewood collecting; fishing; cultivating on forest land; limestone exploiting; non timber forest production collecting are strictly prohibited Before the Nature Reserve establishment, there are no institutional agencies that monitor and manage non-timber forest products exploitation, timber harvesting, wild animals hunting, firewood collecting,

timber for construction, fishery, especially logging activities Grazing is also serious problem The main source of income is agriculture, trade and services have not been paid much attention However, this is not sufficient for their life After the establishment of the Nature Reserve, all activities affecting the reserve have been reduced Local people moved away from traditional livelihoods Some activities: ornamental trees collecting, stone carvings, limestone exploitation, wild animals hunting, charcoal and firewood no longer is their livelihoods Some sectors have dropped dramatically: livestock (8.3%), aqua-farming (10%) and firewood collection (6.7%)

Nguyen Van Linh (2016) figures out that 100% of travel agencies and 96.08% of local interviewees agree that ecotourism make differences of livelihoods and awareness in Van Long However, the benefits from tourism activities are not high, so there should be solutions to change the mechanism of benefit sharing, economic solutions to attract the travel agencies and develop tourism in sustainable way To balance the benefits from nature reserve and the importance of conservation, each activity should receive appropriate management and investments as well as solutions to support the sustainable development

by diversifying local people livelihoods

4.1.4 SESs Profile

The Social ecological system profile is synthesized from Social profile, Economical profile and Ecological profile SESs profile is also considered as the baseline assessment in the CAM methodology, establishes an understanding of past and present status and trends

in these Social-Ecological systems

4.1.4.1 Identifying SESs

Three sets of components - ecological, social and economic - and their relevant constituent variables in Van Long NR is identified, building on the information from

Table 4.1 Social-ecological systems in Van Long NR Cultivation Livelihood

from husbandry

Forest-based livelihood

Ecotourism

Ecological Seasonal

wetland, low land area

Whole nature reserve

Limestone forests, plantation forests

Wetland area

Social-Economical

Mainly rice, other, maize, cassava, vegetable in winter season

Cattle and poultry

Payment for ecosystem services, Forest allocation program

Ecotourism services

Trends Plant more fruit

trees

Developing Diversifying in cattle Free-grazing cattle

Forest cover is increasing Some plantation forest are harvestable

Number of tourists is decreasing

Source: Summarized from Ecological profile, Social profile and Economical profile

4.1.4.2 Mapping SESs

Result in Appendix 7, Social-ecological systems in Van Long NR map

4.2 Assessing potential impacts and vulnerability of SESs in Van Long NR to climate change

There are three variables need to consider in vulnerability assessment, include exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity It is impossible to combine them at the same time That is the reason why exposure and sensitivity are combined together to figure out potential impact level before combine with adaptive capacity to find the vulnerability level (refer to 3.2.1 CAM process) While exposure is similar among Social-ecological systems, the Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity is different between them This is detail about these three variables is analyzed

4.2.1 Exposure

Exposure includes climate stress degree and future trend of climate Climate stress degree is collected from local knowledge by interviewing The future trend of climate is calculated from “Climate model” Exposure level is analyzed by these components

4.2.1.1 Climate stress degree to the SESs

Generally, there are 4 types of extreme events that stress on SESs in Van Long NR They are flood, storms, extreme cold and drought Result is summarized in Table 4.2

Table 4.2 Climate stress degree

Extreme events Scope Duration Frequency Causes and magnitude

wetland area Lowland area

7-10 days Annually and

continuously prolonged

The rainfall is high, with some heavy and prolonged

rains Consequences of storms/tropical depression Storms, tropical

depressions

Whole nature reserve

4-5h 4-5 times/year

1 directed storm every 10 years

Sudden storms and Tropical depressions Far from the sea Extreme/damaging

cold:

Low temperature

Whole nature reserve

7-10 days 2-3 spells/ year Northeast wind Lasting

3-6 weeks Once every 3