Key factors influence the decision making in large sized timber plantation of local people in cam lo district quang tri province

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESRY FOREST RESOUCRES & ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT FACULTYSTUDENT THESIS KEY FACTORS INFLUENCE THE DECISION MAKING IN LARGE-SIZED TIMBER PLANTATION OF LO

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESRY FOREST RESOUCRES & ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT FACULTY

STUDENT THESIS

KEY FACTORS INFLUENCE THE DECISION MAKING IN LARGE-SIZED TIMBER PLANTATION OF LOCAL PEOPLE IN CAM LO DISTRICT,

QUANG TRI PROVINCE

Majors: Natural Resources Management Faculty: Forest Resources and Environmental Management

Student: Ngo Thi Mai Student ID: 1453090563

Class: K59 Natural Resouces Management

Advanced Education Program Developed in collaboration with Colorado State University, USA

Supervisor: Dr Le Dinh Hai

Ha Noi, Oct 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 2

INTRODUCTION 2

CHAPTER 2 4

GOAL AND OBJECTIVES 4

2.1 Goal 4

2.2 Objectives 4

2.3 Study Area 4

2.4 Time Scale 4

CHAPTER 3 5

STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 5

3.1 Study area 5

3.1.1 Quang Tri Province 5

3.1.2 Cam Lo District 6

3.2 Definition of large-sized timber and small-sized timber 8

3.3: Research framework 9

3.4 Methodology 10

3.4.1 Data collection method 10

3.4.2 Data processing method 12

3.4.3 Data analysis method 12

CHAPTER 4 18

STUDY RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 18

4.1: The situation about plantation forest in Cam Lo district 18

4.2 Descriptive statistic on survey households in Cam Lo district 18

4.2.1 Land area of households 18

4.2.2: Education of household head 20

4.2.3 Training for siviculture techniques 20

4.3 Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber forest plantation of surveyed household 21

4.3.1 Understanding markets about large-sized timber of local people 23

4.3.2 FSC project participation of local people 24

4.3.3 Support from community to encourage local people plant large-sized timber forest 25

4.4 Compare cost-benifit between small-sized timber and large-sized timber 26

CHAPTER 5 28

SOLUTIONS AND LIMITATION 28

5.1 Compare between large-sized timber plantation and small-size timber plantation 28 5.2 Analyzing SWOT about planting large-sized timber forest 29

5.3 Solutions to encourage local people plant large-sized timber 29

5.4 Limitation 31

CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS 32

REFERENCES 33

APPENDIX 1

LIST OF TABLE

Table 3.1: Survey Sampling design in Cam Lo District 11Table 3.2: List of dependent variable and independent variable 15Table 4.1: Characteristic of surveyed household by commune in Cam Lo District 19Table 4.2: Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber plantation of surveyed household 22

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 3.1: The map of Quang Tri Province 6

Figure 3.2: The map of Cam Lo district, Quang Tri Province 7

Figure 3.3: Research framework 9

Figure 3.4: Conceptual model for potential factors influencing decision making large-sized timber plantation by local people 10

Figure 3.5: Graph of Binary logistic regression 15

I choose 15 variable based on figure 3.4 Conceptual model for potential factors influencing decision making large-sized timber plantation by local people 15

Figure 4.1 Education level of household head in Cam Lo district 20

Figure 4.2 Training for siviculture techniques of household 21

Figure 4.3 Understanding markets about large-sized timber of local people 23

Figure 4.4: FSC project paticipation of local peope in Cam Lo district 25

Figure 4.5 Support from community for local people in Cam Lo district 26

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ADB The Asian Development Bank

BCR Benifit-cost ratio

BNN-TCLN Ministry of Agriculture- General Directorate of Forestry

(Bộ Nông Nghiệp- Tổng Cục Lâm Nghiệp ) EEPSEA The Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia

FSC Certificated for Sustainable Forest management

LWCC Legacy of War Coordination Center

NPV Net present value

ODA Official Development Assistance

PAM Programme Alimentaire Mondial

TCVN Standard of Viet Nam (Tiêu Chuẩn Việt Nam)

VND Việt Nam Đồng

ABSTRACT

At present, the forestry sector is very interested in planting large-sized timber Many models of planting large-sized timber are implementing and bring efficiency The purpose of this thesis is analyzing the key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber plantation of local people in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province; the analyze and evaluate cost-benefit of large-sized timber project Collection data by questionnaire and analyze data by SPSS software The results show that three factors are influencing the decision making in large-sized timber plantation of local people such as understanding markets, FSC project participation, and support from the community Profits from large-sized timber plantation projects are higher than small-sized timber plantation Therefore,

we will recommend some appropriate methods to encourage local people to plant

large-sized timber

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

The roles and values of forests have been appreciated by people in history and modern times In the world, there are many countries and territories, the state and people have a tradition of a plantation, especially in Europe and North America Forests have played a significant role in our lives to mitigating climate change Forests help to regulate the flow in rivers and surface ground The water will be kept in the canopy when going down the forest more than in the ground help the flow decrease in the storm season Forests prevent the surface flow when it runs too fast, making the floods appear more slowly, reducing the level of sudden and severe Water infiltrates the forest land as well as the stock of plants and other organisms live in the soil Therefore, the area has more forest cover will reduce natural disasters, drought, and floods The forest has control flow very well Vietnam has a large area of forest land, there are many policies, programs, and projects for development and sustainable forest management “Approving the action plan

to improve the productivity, quality, and value of forest plantation in the 2014-2020 period.” Issued together with Decision No 774/QD-BNN-TCLN Besides, “Approving Viet Nam’s Forestry Development Strategy in the 2006-2020 period” issued together with Decision No 18/2007/QD-Ttg which was approved by the Prime Minister on February 5,

2017, an essential legal basis for the development of forestry in Vietnam

In Vietnam, large-sized timber plantation understood harvest after 10-14 years The

yields are 200 - 240m3/ha most of the trees reach the diameter of over 18cm, accounting

for 50% of the reserve of about 100-120m3/ha (Source: Mr Nhu Van Ky-General Forestry

Department1) The majority of people choose hybrid acacia to convert from small-sized

1

Mr Nhu Van Ky-General Forestry Department

timber plantation to large-sized timber plantation In comparison with small-sized timber

plantation, the profit from large-sized timber is higher depending on the age of harvest and

the diameter of the tree

In March 2018, Quang Tri province has over 22,000 ha of large-sized timber that was certificated from FSC for sustainable forest management (FSC), accounting for 40%

of the total forest area of certificated from FSC in the country Large-sized timber has a ten-year extraction cycle, as well as a choice of harvesting options, keep the forest cover to minimize flooding Quang Tri is the leading province in developing large-sized timber from FSC, and it is approving to promote economic development, environment Besides,

in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province has been implemented the model of developing large-sized timber plantation Cam Lo has developed the model of hybrid acacia hybrid 13.5 years old This is the model of the State level project in the period of 2001-2005, code KC.06.05.NN, also in the study area "Research on the system of intensive acacia hybrid plantation techniques, Acacia auriculiformis provide large timber on new land" from 2015

to 2019 by Nguyen Huy Son and Pham Xuan Dinh is the manager

However, the forest owner usually makes decision harvest based on factors such as environmental condition and profit of products If making the decision, Is the forest owner understand the economic benefits of shortening the plantation rotation? If plantation large-sized timber for a long time, It would have benefit and potential for local people? What is factor influence the decision making of local people to plant large-sized timber?

To explain these issues, developing large-sized timber plantation in a community is

an urgent choice Therefore, I decided to do the research project "Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber plantation of local people in Cam Lo District, Quang Tri Province"

CHAPTER 2 GOAL AND OBJECTIVES 2.1 Goal

Analyzing the scientific and practical issues to develop large-sized timber forest in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province; providing information help local people understand the efficiency of large-sized timber plantation to develop large-sized timber in Cam Lo district, Quang Tri province

- Collecting secondary data for research from 2014-2019

- Collecting primary data from 7/2018-8/2018

CHAPTER 3 STUDY AREA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Study area

3.1.1 Quang Tri Province

Quang Tri is a province in the North Central Coast region of Vietnam, north of the former imperial capital of Hue Quang Tri is a province in the North Central Coast region

of Vietnam Quang Tri has 10 sub-divisions such as Cam Lo, Con Co, Da Krong, Gio Linh, Hai Dang, Huong Hoa, Trieu Phong, Vinh Linh; 1 district town is Quang Tri and 1 provincial city is Dong Ha Forest land with forest cover is 219,638.85 ha, accounting for 72.73% of the agricultural land area, production forest is 101.631,02 ha, protection forest is 62.664,45 ha, particular use forest 55.343,38 ha Quang Tri located in a tropical monsoon climate, high temperature, light and rain regime, abundant moisture, high altitude is the fundamental advantages for the development of crops, forestry However, Quang Tri considered quite a harsh climate, influenced by strong southwest winds blowing from March to September, the cause of drought From October to February of the following year, it affected by the northeast monsoon with rain, the cause of the flood Annual average temperature is 24-25°C in the lowland, 220-23°C at an altitude of 500m Annual rainfall is about 2,200-2,500 mm, the number of rainy days in the year ranges from 154 to 190 days, focusing on September, October, and November

Cam Lo District, Quang Tri Province chose to be a case study because of the following reasons Firstly, Cam Lo district located in the central area of Quang Tri province has a natural area of 367.4 km2, accounting for 8% of the Quang Tri province Secondly, in this area planted 5 million hectares of new forest and some afforestation projects such as large-sized timber plantation under certificated from FSC for sustainable forest development By the end of 2016, forest cover reach to 52%

Figure 3.1: The map of Quang Tri Province

3.1.2 Cam Lo District

a Geographic Location

Cam Lo district located in the central area of Quang Tri province, at 16041 ' - 16053' north latitude, 106050' - 107006' east longitude Border by Gio Linh to the North ; Trieu Phong and Dakrong to the South; Dong Ha city by the East and Đakrông district on the West, Cam Lo located on the intersection of critical traffic routes, that are National highway 1A; Ho Chi Minh road; Highway 9 - inter-Asian routes linking Vietnam - Laos - Thailand and other regional countrie

b Topography

Cam Lo currently has 9 administrative including Cam Lo Townlet, Cam An, Cam Thanh, Cam Thuy, Cam Hieu, Cam Chinh, Cam Nghia, Cam Tuyen, and Cam Thanh The average temperature is 24 - 25˚C, the lowest month is 18,9°C ( January, February), the highest month is 30,3°C ( June, July), the temperature of day and night is 6.5 - 7˚C The average of rainfall in the area is very high about 2400 mm, accounting for 80% of rainfall

concentrated from September to December with high rainfall intensity The frequency of floods concentrated from September to November.

Figure 3.2: The map of Cam Lo district, Quang Tri Province

c Soil and land use

Cam Lo terrain features shades of terrain transition from the Truong Son mountain

to the sea, terrain elevation from 50 to 400m with three distinct subregions The lowland area in the west-northwest consists of Cam Thanh and Cam Tuyen communes with sloping topography to the east, with steep slopes, which are favorable for forest tree planting The mountain areas of Cam Chinh and Cam Nghia Communes are characterized by highland sub-areas, which are favorable for planting long-term industrial trees The delta along the banks of the Hieu River in Cam An, Cam Thanh, Cam Thuy, Cam Hieu, and Cam Lo communes is suitable for the development of short-term industrial crops and food crops Soils of Cam Lo are mainly red soil group accounting for 84% of the area; 69.7% of the natural land area, a slope of less than 250; Natural soil with thick soil layer suitable for the development of short-term plants and long-term industrial plants

d Socio-economic characteristic

The population of Cam Lo district is 45.433 people (23.161 women, accounting for 51% and 22.272 men, accounting for 49%) The average population density is 132 people / km2 The population is concentrated in rural areas with 39,019 people, accounting for 86.1%, urban areas with 6,414 people, accounting for 13.9% The labor is 28,087 people, accounting for 61.7% Annually, having 800-900 workers can be employed However, the quality of labor is still inadequate, most of the labor force is active in agriculture and

forestry, the number of laborers working in the industry and services is still low

3.2 Definition of large-sized timber and small-sized timber

Large-sized timber and small-sized timber classified by many different purposes of use and different in diameter or total height of tree species Small-sized timber plantation with the primary purpose of supplying small timber, wood chips Large-sized timber plantation with the aim of providing sawn timber with a large-sized timber yield of 70% Based on TVCN 11567-1:2016 “Plantation - Large timber plantation transformation from small wood - Part 1: Acacia hybrid (A.mangium x A- auricculiformis)” classified characteristic of large-sized timber and small-sized timber Because the research object is Acacia hybrid

Small –sized timber Large –sized timber

(Source: TVCN 11567-1:2016)

Research framework is presented in Figure 3.3

Figure 3.3: Research framework

Conceptual model for potential factors influencing decision making large-sized timber plantation by local people is presented in Figure 3.4 Some group factors can influence to decision making of local people such as household characteristic, socio-economic, policy and biophysical factor

Key factors influence to the

decision making of local people

Method

- Household survey

- Questionaire

Solutions

Biophysical factor (soil quality, Slope)

Figure 3.4: Conceptual model for potential factors influencing decision making

large-sized timber plantation by local people 3.4 Methodology

3.4.1 Data collection method

 Collecting secondary data:

Collect selected documents, synthesized from documents and research works already published at the concerned agencies:

+ Indicators describing the location, characteristics of resources from the statistical yearbook of the General Statistics Office, Statistical Office of the provinces, District Statistics Office

+ Indicators describing the status of plantation development (area, yield, plantation structure ) from annual reports, Department of Planning and Investment, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Department of Finance Natural Resources and Environment, Forestry Using statistic report and professional survey reports, documents and data from specialized publications and websites

Policy factor (land and tree property right, forest support program, information for forest owner)

Decision of large-sized timber plantation

Farms characteristic (natural condition, natural disater, distance to market)

+ Referring to domestic and foreign documents, inherit and select the published research results

 Collecting primary data:

- Three communes were chosen to conduct the survey, including Cam Chinh Commune, Cam Nghia Commune, and Cam Thuy Commune The main reason for choosing 3 communes is that they have many households involving in forest plantation and forest plantation under large-sized timber with forest sustainable certificate (FSC)

- Selection of sample: Random stratified sampling method was not repeated from the list of participants in afforestation in each commune The samples selected for the

survey were 150 households with 30 households in Cam Thuy commune, 43 household in Cam Chinh commune and 57 households in Cam Nghia commune

Table 3.1: Survey Sampling design in Cam Lo District

small-Planting sized timber

Through the questionnaire, interviews directly with the interviewees, questionnaires were prepared at the study site

+ Managers at all levels related to afforestation, large-sized timber plantation projects

+ Forest owner in Cam Lo district

3.4.2 Data processing method

Data collected from the questionnaire will be aggregated using the Excel software

in Microsoft Office and the SPSS 23 software on the computer

3.4.3 Data analysis method

 Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

Using NPV, BCR, IRR indicators for calculations and analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of afforestation schemes at different ages

- Net Present Value (NPV): is used in capital bubgeting to analyze the profitability

Bi : Benifit of project in year i

In which: Ci : Cost of project in year i r: Discount rate

n : The time of the project

NPV > 0: Efficiency Project If: NPV = 0: Break even NPV < 0: Not efficiency Project

- Benifit-Cost Ratio (BCR) is an indicator of the financial performance of the

project

+ Formular of BCR

- Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a metric used in capital budgeting to

estimate the profitability of potential investments Internal rate of return is a discount rate that makes the net present value (NPV) of all cash flows from a particular project equal to zero

+ Formular of IRR

Assume that the one large-sized timber rotation are equal to two small-sized

timber rotation (5-years for small-sized timber, 10-year for large-sized timber)

BCR > 1: Efficiency Project If: BCR = 1: Break even BCR < 1: Not efficiency Project

IRR > r: Efficiency Project If: IRR = r: Break even IRR < r: Not efficiency Project

Bi : Benifit of project in year i

In which: Ci : Cost of project in year i r: Discount rate

n : The time of the project NPV: Net present value

Bi : Benifit of project in year i

In which: Ci : Cost of project in year i IRR: Internal rate of Return

n : The time of the project NPV: Net present value

 Binary logistic regression method

Applying Binary Logistic Regression Model to accessing key divers affecting decision making of small household in long- term rotation plantation practice Since minimum sample size is calculate by following formula (Tabachnick & Fidell,2007):

n > 50 + 8m

In which: n: sample size

m: number of independent variables

Binary logistic is a model that uses dependent variables as qualitative variables with two option “Yes-No”,set up the regression model, process statistics on the SPSS software

The Binary Logistic regression model uses a binary dependent variable to estimate the probability that an event will occur with the information of the independent variable

+ The dependent variable is the decision of the forest owner to large timber forest plantation (Y dependent variable with two values 0 and 1, "0" - No large-sized timber plantation, "1"- large-sized timber plantation)

+ Independent variables X1, X2, Xk - Factors influence the decision making to forest plantation of local people

Based on this binary dependent variable, a procedure is used to predict the probability of an event occurring according to the rule if the predicted probability is greater than 0.5 (the default cutoff point) The predicted result will be " Yes "event occurs, otherwise the predicted result will be" No "

Binary logistic regression have model:

P = P(Yi=1) =

Figure 3.5: Graph of Binary logistic regression

(Soure: Nguyenngocbichphuong.com)

I choose 15 variable based on figure 3.4 Conceptual model for potential factors influencing decision making large-sized timber plantation by local people

Table 3.2: List of dependent variable and independent variable

Dependent variable

planting large- sized timber

1=Yes 0=No

Independent variable

Male

head

1=Primary school 2=Secondary school 3=High School

5 Labor Total member of household

Member pratice plantation

2=Medium 3=Rich

7 Income and Capital Income per month of household

Income from forest (1ha) Total money invest in 1ha

8 Silvicultural

techniques and skills

Training session for sivilculture skills

1=Yes 0=No

10 Distance to the field Distance frome household to the

field

11 Accessibility to the

fileld

1=Easy 2=Moderate 3=Difficult

12 Using fertilizer Using fertilizer when plantation

forest

1=Yes 0=No

participaion

1=Yes 0=No

community

Support from local community for large-sized timber plantation activities of household

1=Yes 0=No

15 Understand market Understanding of local people to

large-sized timber market

1=Yes 0=No

 Analyze SWOT method

A method to analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges in large-sized timber development in Quang Tri province Based on that, appropriate measures are put in place to develop large-sized timber in the province

CHAPTER 4 STUDY RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1: The situation about plantation forest in Cam Lo district

Planting forest area is the project programs such as 327, PAM, ADB, Germany, 661, FSC and plantation forest with own capital of company and households Planting forest of programs and projects usually arrange between the chief crops native trees and acacia trees, density about 1650 trees/ha with ratio 1:1 The area forest plantation with own capital is Acacia species, density from 1650 to 2000 trees/ha with ratio 1:1 At present, the district has 16,670.7 ha of plantation forest with protection forest area is 1,858.8 ha and production forest area is 14,811.9 ha After surveying, the situation of forest plantation in Cam Lo district mainly involves in small-sized timber plantation with rotation about 5 to 7 years

Viet-4.2 Descriptive statistic on survey households in Cam Lo district

4.2.1 Land area of households

In overall, mean of total land area per each household is quite hight (over 5ha) Most of the households in the village plantation forest with the minimum area of forest about 0,4 ha and the maximum area are 23 ha In Cam Thuy, forest area accounting for 40% of the total land area In Cam Nghia, accounting for 60% and Cam Chinh is 71% of

the total land area

Table 4.1: Characteristic of surveyed household by commune in Cam Lo District

Std

Deviation

Std Error Mean

4.2.2: Education of household head

Each of the respondents was asked to indicate the education achieved by the household head In general, the education level in the household is the secondary school, accounting for 70.7% Besides, primary school accounting for 6,6% and high school accounting for 22,7 % Nobody learns college because the household head is elderly Overall, the level of education in the locality is not high The intellectual level is still low Therefore, accessibility to new technology is not high, keeping the old tradition

Figure 4.1 Education level of household head in Cam Lo district

4.2.3 Training for siviculture techniques

The results in Figure 4.2 show that 83,3% of the respondents enjoy training session for silviculture skills and 16,7% not enjoy training session Besides, most of the interviewees cited that an extension officer from government forestry program is critical in training and educating communities on tree planting practices The more the farmers interact with them, the more likely it is for them to gain knowledge on silviculture

Figure 4.2 Training for siviculture techniques of household

The forest plantation program implemented in Cam Lo such as 327, PAM, ADB, Vietnam-Germany, 661 and FSC Participants in the training have trained in forest plantation and protection forest, knowledge of seed sources as well as nursery techniques,

an understanding demand of the market Therefore, participation in training is essential

4.3 Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber forest plantation

of surveyed household

To clear understanding large-sized timber plantation of households is required to estimate the impact of decision-making plantation forest on various types of households In general, the households plantation large-sized timber on their land or their management have higher levels of benefits or higher awareness of forest plantation than households do not plant large-sized timber in the future

As the analysis method, I choose binary logistic regression with Backward Stepwise (Wald) option, because of using Wald Backward Stepwise option discarded variable and the variable type is checked based on the probability of the Wald statistic The method will cutoff variables not in the model have a significantly higher than 0.05 and keep the suitable variable have significance level 0.05

Table 4.2: Key factors influence the decision making in large-sized timber plantation

of surveyed household Independent

variables

B S.E Wald df Sig Exp(B)

Exp(B) adjusted

Dependent variable: Large-size timber plantation decision by household