绪论
选题的背景
Regionalism is an objective presence within the multilateral trade system of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Since the early 1990s, the acceleration of economic and trade globalization has led to significant growth in regionalism, both in scope and depth Previously, regionalism primarily manifested as Free Trade Areas (FTAs), but since the 1990s, there has been a notable rise in bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs).
Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are becoming increasingly common, with the scope of cooperation continually expanding to facilitate trade in goods and services.
The article emphasizes the importance of liberalizing investment and technology exchange, facilitating the free movement of labor, and streamlining customs procedures Additionally, it highlights the relevance of addressing environmental protection and intellectual property issues as part of this broader initiative.
In the late 1990s, many East Asian countries, including Japan, actively sought to establish a regional cooperation mechanism to promote comprehensive development in goods and services trade This initiative was primarily driven by two factors: first, the need to prevent a repeat of the 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis, and second, the stagnation of multilateral negotiations within the WTO, which spurred regionalism and accelerated economic integration among Southeast Asian nations By 2013, the United States had emerged as the world's largest economy, highlighting the importance of these regional efforts.
Với dân số 2,85 tỷ người và GDP đạt 16,2 triệu tỷ USD, Đông Nam Á đang trở thành một trong những thị trường xuất khẩu lớn nhất của Việt Nam Khu vực này sẽ đóng vai trò ngày càng quan trọng trong sự phát triển kinh tế khu vực và hợp tác kinh tế toàn cầu Đặc biệt, Nhật Bản với 126 triệu dân và GDP 5,1 triệu tỷ USD là nền kinh tế lớn thứ ba thế giới, trong khi Trung Quốc có 1,3 tỷ dân và GDP đạt
The ASEAN region, with a population of 623 million and a GDP of $2.83 trillion in 2014, presents significant economic potential, especially when considering the large economies of China and Japan As these two nations continue to develop, they are poised to become major players in the global market The geographical proximity and cultural ties among Asian countries, along with the preliminary cooperation mechanisms established within the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) framework, will enhance international division of labor Research indicates that the realization of an East Asia FTA can accelerate economic collaboration among countries in the region Notably, smaller economies stand to gain even more from this collaboration due to the economies of scale associated with FTAs.
With the signing of free trade agreements, the construction and development of free trade zones are becoming a trend in global economic cooperation Vietnam, as a rapidly developing economy situated in a significant geographical and economic position in Asia, cannot remain uninvolved; it is destined to participate and leverage its unique advantages.
This paper examines Vietnam's approach to participating in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), along with their economic effects and development strategies, highlighting its significant practical implications and application value.
In recent years, the Vietnamese government has actively pursued market price liberalization and implemented appropriate exchange rate management It has continuously reduced tariff levels and developed a modern financial system, which has significantly enhanced competition between private enterprises and state monopolies As a result, Vietnam's economy has experienced rapid growth, with a stable macroeconomic environment fostering comprehensive foreign trade expansion and encouraging both domestic and foreign direct investment (FDI), leading to a substantial decrease in the national poverty rate.
In recent years, Vietnam has experienced rapid development driven by trade liberalization policies and increasing participation in international economic integration The country reformed its trade sector swiftly, becoming a member of ASEAN in 1995 and joining the World Trade Organization in 2007 Amidst the global wave of economic globalization and the stagnation of the Doha Round negotiations, regional economic integration has emerged as a crucial option for many nations Today, Vietnam's trade cooperation strategy in the ASEAN region primarily focuses on bilateral trade and negotiations for regional free trade agreements.
Despite numerous economic theories and experimental studies suggesting that bilateral trade liberalization creates favorable conditions for rapid regional economic development, the economic effects of regional trade agreements remain unclear Providing preferential trade conditions to specific partners rather than all partners can yield greater trade benefits; however, in the case of Vietnam, this approach has led to increased imports from higher-cost countries due to preferential tariffs or exemptions, creating a conflict between trade creation and trade diversion Additionally, tailored trade preferences benefit certain industries while posing challenges for others To address these issues, policymakers, trade negotiators, and businesses must analyze the various impacts of Vietnam's trade negotiations on the national economy and clarify Vietnam's position within Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) A comprehensive understanding of FTAs' implementation, economic benefits, and the potential they hold during discussions will help optimize Vietnam's participation in FTAs and navigate future trends.
南 FTA 战略。目前，对关于FTA效应和越南FTA战略的研究还很欠缺。
This article focuses on the impact of Vietnam's participation in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on economic development and the strategic choices involved It aims to provide theoretical support for Vietnam's FTA strategies to enhance national economic growth.
研究意义
第一，分析越南参与FTA的时空格局；
第二，参与FTA对越南产生经济效应的理论分析；
第三，提出FTA对越南产生经济效应的定性及定量分析；
Based on the analysis, this article presents strategies for Vietnam to effectively respond to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) from 2015 to 2025 These recommendations aim to enhance Vietnam's participation in FTAs, facilitating deeper integration into global and regional economic frameworks while significantly improving overall competitiveness.
This article systematically examines issues related to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), providing a detailed analysis of their theoretical foundations It uses Vietnam's FTA development strategy as an empirical case study, integrating theory with practice to contribute mathematical evidence from Vietnam to the development of regional economic integration theory.
This paper evaluates the economic effects of Vietnam's participation in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), highlighting both positive and negative impacts It systematically analyzes existing theories and empirical studies related to Vietnam's FTAs while also supplementing them with relevant theoretical insights.
国内外文献综述
在近 20 多年的时间，已经涌现了几次自由贸易协定的浪潮，目前世界上有 存在的不同类型的区域贸易协定（RTA）有 474 个之多，其中自由贸易协定的 类型（FTA）大约有百分之九十 [106] 。自从上世纪 90 年，随着区域经济一体化进 程的不断提速，当代的区域自由贸易协定研究迅速兴起。最大的自由贸易区存 在于欧盟和北美，当然，东盟和东北亚区域也不能避开自由贸易协定浪潮。中 国作为世界上第二大经济发展体，参与双边和多边自由贸易协定也已经成为中 国发展的重要趋势。那么，不仅对中国而且对其他国家，笔者已经进行了深度 研究和探索分析。关于本论文的选题，现有的文献注重几个以下相关问题：东 盟各国的自由贸易协定政策，东盟区内自由贸易协定的展望，自由贸易协定对 越南的影响研究，FTA 的经济效应的计量分析。
1.3.1 东盟各国的自由贸易协定政策与战略
In his 2005 study, Alexander C Chandra highlighted the benefits and challenges of bilateral free trade agreements for Indonesia He emphasized the need for the Indonesian government to carefully consider its approach to these agreements, advising against merely emulating the policies of Singapore and Thailand in selecting trade partners and implementing free trade practices.
Before finalizing any agreements, it is crucial to carefully assess the foundational conditions of the nation This study serves as a warning to developing countries, particularly ASEAN member states, about the importance of adapting Free Trade Agreement (FTA) strategies By learning from the experiences of other nations and tailoring approaches to their specific developmental contexts, these countries can successfully implement FTA strategies rather than merely imitating others.
Erlinda M Medalla and Dorothea C Lazaro (2004) examined the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) strategy in the Philippines, emphasizing the importance of clearly defining the cooperation objectives, scope, and framework when proposing FTA regulations The study highlights that the Philippines' FTA strategy should focus on the economic development of partner countries, prioritizing national interests over the FTA itself Each nation continually seeks potential partners and negotiates cooperation terms Therefore, this research provides valuable insights and experiences for identifying promising partner countries and achieving effective FTA agreements.
In Razeen Sally's 2005 study, he highlighted the shortcomings of Thailand's Free Trade Agreement (FTA) policy implementation, advocating for a reevaluation of priority procedures The author emphasizes the significance of FTAs for Thailand, noting that they serve as a crucial factor alongside domestic unilateral reform policies Scholars have pointed out that Thailand tends to rely on trade negotiations rather than focusing on unilateral reforms from other countries From my perspective, the need for comprehensive reforms in both macroeconomic and microeconomic policies has been driven by effective responses to losses and international financial crises, such as the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis In the context of globalization, economic crises can emerge unexpectedly, impacting the economic development of nations worldwide Therefore, the study addresses the importance of strategically implementing FTAs to effectively counter economic crises.
J Crawford and R.V Fiorentino (2005) [69] ；C M Dent (2008) [53] ; R V Fiorentino, J Crawford and C Toqueboeuf (2009) [13] : 区域经济一体化的加速和亚洲区域经济合作的滞后制约了国际贸易的发展，导致亚洲各国以双边主义作为战略选择。签署双边自由贸易协定浪潮席卷东盟。对于各个发展中国家比如越南，老挝，柬埔寨，FTA 是全球化浪潮的一部分，双边主义成为自由贸易政策的理论选择。新加坡是第一个提出东盟区内签署双边自由贸易协定意见的国家。从此以后，泰国立刻支持，并且 2+X原则出现。从 21 世纪开始，以“东盟-中国全面经济合作框架协议”的签署为标志，东盟正式启动了与对话伙伴国的自由贸易区建设。日本，韩国，印度和欧盟相继参与东盟地区的 FTA 潮流，使东盟对外签订 FTA 的进展不断地加快。这项研究的最主要意义是，从理论方面来看，人们都倾向区域主义论坛，但实际上，各国比较倾向于双边主义，比较注重单方利益而不是区域利益或者多边利益。此外，各位研究者都肯定新加坡与泰国成为东盟地区经济合作的主导力量，其中，这两国正在形成一个双边经
During the process of forming the ASEAN Economic Community, the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on other ASEAN member countries and the overall region is significant.
1.3.2 对东盟区内自由贸易协定的展望
The article discusses the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) policies of ASEAN, highlighting key contributions from various scholars Notably, it references Crawford and Fiorentino's work from 2005, as well as Dr Pham Trang Giang's 2010 analysis titled "AFTA Strategy Towards Vietnam: Theoretical and Practical Foundations in East Asia." These insights collectively emphasize the strategic importance of AFTA in enhancing Vietnam's trade relations within the ASEAN framework.
Dr Pei Changjiang (2010) examined the theories of regional and global economic integration, focusing on the new context of East Asian economic integration and its trade relationship characteristics He conducted an empirical analysis of the FTA strategic trends among East Asian countries, clearly outlining the prospects for the implementation of FTA strategies in East Asia and their implications for Vietnam during the period from 2011 to 2020.
The article discusses insights from FTA strategies, highlighting the author's key argument based on empirical analysis, particularly using case studies from the Asian Tigers, such as Singapore and South Korea It emphasizes the need for Vietnam to develop effective policies for implementing its FTA strategy.
Nashahiro Kawai and Ganeshan Wignaraja (2011) along with Siow Yue Chia (2010) have highlighted the challenges faced by ASEAN countries in the implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) Their research points out issues such as the complexity of overlapping FTA regulations and the difficulties in navigating these agreements effectively.
Dent (2006) suggests that under Southeast Asia's regionalism, Singapore and Thailand have emerged as leading forces in ASEAN's economic cooperation, while also acting as pathfinders However, the economic alliance forming between these two nations not only fails to fulfill the pathfinding role but also exacerbates trade discrepancies This is attributed to the negative impact the alliance has on the unity among ASEAN member states Additionally, Richard Stubbs (2002) analyzes the ASEAN+ strategy, viewing it as a necessary approach that fosters comprehensive economic cooperation in East Asia.
The development of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) has been comprehensively outlined by Dai Kelai and You Mingqian (2000) in their article "The Development Process, Model, and Prospects of the ASEAN Free Trade Area." They categorize AFTA's evolution into three distinct phases The first phase, termed the "Preparation Stage" (1967-1991), began with the Philippines' initial proposal in 1976 to establish a free trade area within ASEAN, which met with lukewarm responses from member countries.
Between 1975 and 1987, three ASEAN summits led to the signing of key agreements, including the "Protocol on Improving and Expanding the Preferential Trade Arrangement" and the "Memorandum on Eliminating Non-Tariff Barriers among ASEAN Countries." By October 1991, the 23rd ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting discussed regional economic cooperation initiatives, agreeing on Thailand's proposal to eliminate all tariffs and non-tariff barriers within 15 years and establish a free trade area This marked the culmination of 20 years of efforts, resulting in the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) The subsequent phases included a rapid development stage from 1992 to 1996, followed by a stage of adjustment and deepening reforms.
From 1997 to 2000, the development model of the ASEAN Free Trade Area was outlined in the document, emphasizing a non-interference policy in domestic affairs, a loose mechanism based on consensus, and a unified market driven by regional openness The author believes that this development approach is effective.
研究内容、方法和技术路线
This article examines Vietnam's participation in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as of 2014, grounded in international economic and trade theories, including new trade theory, customs union theory, and free trade area theory It focuses on the achievements and negative impacts of Vietnam's involvement in FTAs, analyzing relevant economic data such as trade development, population growth, and GDP growth to assess the practical implications of Vietnam's FTA strategy.
This article analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and their impacts, focusing on quantitative analysis to reveal the effects of FTAs on Vietnam's economy Based on these findings, it offers recommendations for Vietnam's strategic responses to future FTAs.
1.4.1.1 定性与定量相结合的方法
This article employs a combination of normative and empirical research methods, integrating qualitative and quantitative analyses Firstly, it utilizes a CGE model to evaluate the potential or "extensive" impacts of both existing and future Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) based on the commitments of trading partners Secondly, it establishes a gravity model using available data between Vietnam and its relevant partner countries to determine the relationship between bilateral trade and factors such as the economic size of both countries, economic disparities, FTAs, and other variables, thereby estimating the effects of existing FTAs These two methodologies complement each other, allowing for a comprehensive examination of the effects of FTAs while considering various influencing factors The CGE model's strength lies in its use of Vietnamese data and other sources to assess the impact of current and future tariff changes, while also explaining the complex interrelationships among economic factors Meanwhile, the gravity model reveals the extent of FTAs' influence on Vietnam's trade by leveraging historical data.
1.4.1.2 文献分析法
The literature analysis method is a fundamental approach in social research This article examines the impact mechanism of FTA strategies on the Vietnamese economy and explores optimization strategies, categorizing it as a social research study The literature review method is employed primarily to consult and analyze a vast array of academic works and papers, providing critical commentary based on the research objectives and requirements.
This article aims to analyze domestic and international materials by researching various literature and works It seeks to critically inherit the knowledge and perspectives of experts and scholars, thereby enhancing the research methodology presented in this study.
1.4.1.3 比较研究法
Comparative research is a fundamental method in sociology that involves observing the interconnections and differences between entities to explore patterns and seek solutions to problems This article aims to compare the studies conducted by various experts and scholars both domestically and internationally on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) strategy, with the hope of gaining insights through this comparative analysis.
The implementation of FTA strategies and the optimization of regional FTA approaches are crucial for identifying the most effective FTA model in Vietnam.
论文研究技术路线图
FTA的正面效果与负面影响
越南应对FTA战略的建议
定量分析 模型确立
理论研究综述
实践研究总结
研究内容解构
世界FTA发展战略
对越南的启示
本文数据, 资料收集
FTA 谈判战略
1、 选择有潜能的FTA伙伴国
2、 行业咨询 3、可行性研究与经济模型构建 4、 确定利益与反击及防守谈判观点 5、签署协定
6、 法律调整 7、 实施与校对
概念、基础理论与研究方法
相关概念
2.1.1 经济一体化概念
Nhà kinh tế học Hungary, Béla Balassa, đã giới thiệu khái niệm và khung lý thuyết về tích hợp kinh tế trong bài viết năm 1961 của ông Đến nay, những khái niệm này vẫn đóng vai trò nền tảng trong nghiên cứu về tích hợp kinh tế Tích hợp kinh tế thường được hiểu là quá trình các quốc gia ký kết hiệp định hoặc thỏa thuận để điều chỉnh chính sách thương mại, nhằm đạt được lợi ích chung, phát triển phối hợp và tối ưu hóa phân bổ tài nguyên trong khu vực Mục tiêu cuối cùng là tạo ra một thực thể kinh tế - chính trị có sự phối hợp cao Tích hợp kinh tế là một quá trình phát triển và tiến hóa liên tục, với nội dung phong phú và được cập nhật theo từng giai đoạn thực tiễn Dựa trên mức độ tự do thương mại và độ sâu của liên minh kinh tế, tích hợp kinh tế có thể được phân loại thành năm loại theo thứ bậc tăng dần.
2.1.1.1 优惠贸易安排
A Preferential Trade Arrangement (PTA) is a regional economic agreement where member countries establish preferential trade agreements to offer special tariff benefits on all or certain goods among themselves, while imposing higher trade barriers on non-member countries.
Preferential trade arrangements represent the most basic and loose form of economic integration, where barriers to the flow of goods are not entirely eliminated A notable example of such an arrangement is the Commonwealth Preference System established in 1932 between the United Kingdom and its dominions, including Canada and Australia Another significant case is the preferential trade agreement implemented among ASEAN member countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, which has been in effect since 1977.
2.1.1.2 自由贸易区
A Free Trade Area (FTA) is an international economic integration organization formed by two or more countries that agree to eliminate tariffs and other trade barriers of equivalent effect In addition to sharing many characteristics with a free port, FTAs attract foreign investment for establishing manufacturing facilities and export processing enterprises They also encourage the establishment of large commercial enterprises and financial institutions to promote comprehensive economic development within the region.
The limitations of free trade zones include potential distortions in the flow of goods and tax evasion Without supplementary measures, third countries may route their products through integrated organizations to benefit from lower tariffs or trade advantages.
Các quốc gia thành viên của khu vực thương mại tự do phải tuân thủ nguyên tắc "xuất xứ", quy định rằng chỉ những sản phẩm có nguồn gốc từ các quốc gia thành viên mới được hưởng các ưu đãi thương mại tự do Theo lý thuyết, sản phẩm được coi là hàng hóa có nguồn gốc nếu giá trị sản xuất trong lãnh thổ thành viên chiếm hơn 50% tổng giá trị sản phẩm Sản phẩm nhập khẩu từ các quốc gia thứ ba càng cạnh tranh với sản phẩm do các thành viên khu vực thương mại tự do sản xuất, thì càng thể hiện rõ lợi thế về giá cả và cạnh tranh của hàng hóa có nguồn gốc Nguyên tắc xuất xứ thể hiện tính chất loại trừ nhất định của khu vực thương mại tự do đối với các quốc gia không phải thành viên Một ví dụ điển hình về khu vực thương mại tự do là Hiệp định Thương mại Tự do Bắc Mỹ (NAFTA).
关税同盟(Custom Union，简称 CU)，是指两个或两个以上的国家通过缔结
Trade agreements establish a unified customs territory, allowing member countries to reduce or eliminate tariffs among themselves For goods imported from countries or regions outside this customs territory, a common tariff rate and foreign trade policy are applied.
A Common Market (CM) refers to an agreement between two or more countries or economies that establishes a unified external tariff to promote free trade It facilitates the complete abolition of tariffs and import quotas among member states, allowing for the unrestricted flow of goods, services, capital, and labor Additionally, the Common Market implements a standardized tariff structure for non-member countries, enhancing economic cooperation and integration among its members.
An Economic Union (EU) refers to a collaborative agreement among member countries to unify their external trade policies, eliminate trade barriers, and allow the free movement of production factors Additionally, it involves the coordination of member states to implement a unified economic policy.
In addition to the various forms of economic integration mentioned above, there exists a unique type known as a political union This concept involves the establishment of a new political system that supports the functioning and development of multiple economic unions formed by different countries.
El-Agraa 在 1999 年的研究中，就从政治角度来诠释了区域一体化的深度发展。
The article summarizes and presents regional linkages, inferring that the ultimate developmental quality among member countries participating in the integration system is characterized by deep reliance, leading to regional integration, based on policy commitments and the hierarchy of communal systems.
Analyzing the various forms of regional economic integration can further uncover the hierarchical nature of regional economic integration policies.
表2.1-1 区域经济一体化政策间的层级性
地区内部的 贸易自由化
生产要素 自由转移
共同金融与 财政政策
自由贸易区 有 不 不 不 不
关税同盟 有 有 不 不 不
共同市场 有 有 有 不 不
经济同盟 有 有 有 有 不
政治同盟 有 有 有 有 有
资料来源：El-Agraa, Ali M.(1999),“Regional Integration: Experience, Theory and Measurement”, London, Macmilan Press, page 2 table 1.1
Free trade areas and customs unions represent lower levels of integration, focusing primarily on border issues and basic trade matters In contrast, common markets, economic unions, and political unions signify deeper integration policies that involve adjusting border policies among member states, coordinating trade and investment policies, and establishing unified economic, monetary, and even foreign policies This new community framework surpasses the existing systems of member countries and is tailored to their developmental models.
2.1.2 FTA的相关概念
2.1.2.1 区域贸易协定
Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), as defined by GATT/WTO, specifically refer to forms of economic integration such as Free Trade Areas (FTAs) and Customs Unions.
FTA can be understood in two ways: as a Free Trade Agreement or as a Free Trade Area established under such agreements The former refers to regional trade arrangements between two or more countries, including independent customs territories, aimed at trade liberalization in accordance with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules The foundational model of FTA is the Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) The latter definition pertains to the geographical scope of specific trade agreements, where multiple countries or regions eliminate most tariffs and non-tariff barriers on goods, reduce market access restrictions in service sectors, and open up investment, facilitating the free movement of goods, services, capital, technology, and personnel, thereby promoting complementary advantages and joint development Additionally, FTA can also refer to domestic regions within a single country that have eliminated tariffs and trade quotas, with minimal administrative intervention in the economy.
基础理论
2.2.1 新贸易理论
New Trade Theory, also known as New International Trade Theory, was proposed and developed by American economist Paul Krugman in the 1960s This theory modifies traditional international trade concepts in light of new trends, significantly broadening the scope and perspective of international trade theory Key contributions include Krugman's "economies of scale" theory, Vernon's "product cycle" theory, and Lind's "overlapping demand" theory These advancements enhance the explanatory power of international division of labor and trade Krugman's innovations in New Trade Theory are particularly notable in several areas.
Trước hết, bài viết tóm tắt lại nguyên nhân của thương mại quốc tế theo cách mới Các lý thuyết của Smith, Ricardo và mô hình H-O đều quy kết lợi thế so sánh là lý do cho sự hình thành thương mại quốc tế Trong khi lý thuyết trước đó hiểu lợi thế so sánh là sự khác biệt về năng suất lao động, thì lý thuyết sau lại coi đó là sự khác biệt về nguồn lực Tuy nhiên, cả hai lý thuyết này không thể giải thích được thực tế rằng phần lớn thương mại quốc tế hiện nay diễn ra giữa các quốc gia phát triển có sự chênh lệch về năng suất lao động và nguồn lực rất nhỏ Krugman đã sử dụng nguyên lý "kinh tế quy mô" để giải thích lại nguyên nhân xảy ra thương mại quốc tế Do sản phẩm của cùng một ngành ở các quốc gia khác nhau có sự khác biệt nhất định, và các nhà sản xuất có thể thu lợi từ thị trường quốc tế tích hợp, tức là đạt được lợi ích từ quy mô, nên mặc dù một quốc gia có lợi thế so sánh trong một ngành, họ vẫn sẽ xuất khẩu một số sản phẩm thuộc ngành đó trong khi nhập khẩu các sản phẩm khác, từ đó thực hiện sự chuyên môn hóa cao trong ngành Kinh tế quy mô khiến các quốc gia không còn sản xuất tất cả các sản phẩm trong một ngành riêng lẻ, dẫn đến sự giao thương giữa các quốc gia không chỉ diễn ra giữa các ngành mà còn trong cùng một ngành.
Companies that enter the market early can achieve cost advantages by gradually expanding their production scale and manufacturing large quantities of homogeneous products While producing differentiated products in smaller batches is a common way to gain monopoly power, pursuing both economies of scale and product differentiation within a national market presents a contradiction To resolve this issue, firms must engage in international trade, allowing exporters to benefit from market power and economies of scale, while importers enjoy the satisfaction of consuming differentiated products, ultimately enhancing overall welfare.
The new interpretation of trade advantages highlights the distinction between firm-specific and industry-specific advantages, moving beyond classical trade theories that equate the two New trade theory emphasizes that a firm's competitive edge stems from both internal economies of scale and external economies of scale, with the latter being crucial for engaging in international trade A country's trade advantage is not solely based on absolute differences in factor endowments but rather on the scale of development within an industry A larger industry scale fosters shared resources and production factors, leading to economic benefits without altering individual firm sizes While internal economies of scale provide firms with competitive advantages, external economies of scale leverage industry strengths to enhance firm performance.
The new model of international trade can be explained from the demand perspective, contrasting with traditional theories by Smith and Ricardo, which focus on supply and production costs While they addressed the occurrence and mutual benefits of trade, they did not clarify how trade conditions are determined John Stuart Mill expanded on comparative advantage by introducing the concept of mutual demand equations Building on Mill's work and Marshall's contributions, new trade theory presents the idea of overlapping demand or representative demand theory, which interprets international trade through demand The representative demand level reflects the average income or the income of most individuals in a country, influencing the development of consumer goods industries Economies of scale in production are more likely to arise in countries with similar representative demands, facilitating higher profit margins for businesses Trade is more prevalent between countries with closer income levels, as their representative demands align, while greater income disparities reduce trade potential, leading to diminished trade between developed and developing nations Post-World War II, trade among developed countries surpassed that between developing and developed nations, with an increase in intra-industry trade and a decline in primary product trade These trends challenge traditional trade theories, with the central issue of new trade theory being the explanation of the rise in intra-industry trade, which involves simultaneous exports and imports of products within the same industry among multiple countries, rooted in imperfect competition and large-scale production.
Trade among various manufactured goods within the secondary industry tends to eliminate competition, leading to a scenario where large multinational corporations dominate the production and market of specific industry products.
The article presents a new perspective on the issue of product dumping, traditionally opposed by most economists due to its negative impacts In trade, both parties engage in a constant struggle, with one attempting to dump goods while the other seeks to impose anti-dumping measures Despite this, dumping is widely regarded as unjust, making anti-dumping actions seem legitimate However, economist Paul Krugman stands out as an exception, advocating for the rationality of dumping, akin to historical figures like Malthus and List He argues that from an economic standpoint, dumping is not harmful for several reasons: it is a reasonable business strategy to set different prices for different markets, and the legal definition of dumping stems from the economic theory of fair pricing.
"Fair pricing" often disrupts normal business activities, with the increase in dumping primarily due to the inconsistent pace of market openness among countries Dumping creates price disparities in both domestic and international markets, which can, in turn, promote international trade The emergence of reciprocal dumping diminishes the initial pure trade competition, intensifying competition and generating benefits In a perfectly competitive market, all firms accept existing prices, while in an imperfect market, monopolists determine prices, choosing between selling less at a high price or selling more at a low price Dumping can also lead to the externalization and internationalization of competition The unique trade of identical or similar products resulting from reciprocal dumping brings social welfare to both trading parties In summary, classical international trade theory is based on a perfectly competitive market structure, while new trade theory analyzes the reasons, structure, and outcomes of international trade from production and demand perspectives New trade theory addresses international trade in imperfectly competitive market structures, suggesting that firms or industries can leverage their advantages to gain a competitive edge in international trade, resulting in additional profits This analytical framework of new trade theory provides more reasonable and practical explanations for many modern trade phenomena that classical theory struggles to clarify.
2.2.2 关税同盟理论
The concept of a customs union emerged relatively early, but comprehensive and in-depth studies on the topic began to take shape after World War II.
In his seminal work "Theory of Customs Unions" (Viner, 1950), Viner systematically introduced the concept of customs unions, challenging the traditional belief that they inherently increase member countries' welfare He identified the limitations of early customs union theories by introducing the concepts of trade creation and trade diversion, arguing that the benefits of establishing a customs union depend on the actual outcomes of their interaction Viner's application of quantitative analysis to study the economic effects of customs unions laid a solid foundation for the theory.
The foundation of a customs union is a unified external tariff, which eliminates import duties between member countries while imposing a common tariff on non-member countries This structure inevitably affects the allocation of resources among the member states, subsequently influencing their economic dynamics.
The core of the customs union theory lies in revealing the different economic impacts of customs unions on member and non-member countries, affecting consumption patterns, trade conditions, and welfare levels The economic effects of customs unions are primarily analyzed from two aspects: static and dynamic.
2.2.2.1 关税同盟的静态效应
From a static perspective, the most significant effect of a customs union is the production effect, which primarily encompasses trade creation and trade diversion effects, as well as the conditional and corrective effects of trade diversion.
所谓的贸易创造效应（Trade Creation），是指在关税同盟内部取消关税壁垒
In a customs union, higher-cost domestic goods are replaced by lower-cost products from member countries, leading to the creation of new trade opportunities Resources initially allocated for the production of expensive domestic goods are redirected towards the manufacturing of more affordable items This shift exemplifies the economic benefits of free trade as revealed by the principle of comparative advantage.
所谓的贸易转移效应（Trade Diversion），是指关税同盟对外实行统一的保护
Tariffs shift a country's imports from external sources, such as non-allied nations, to more expensive imports from members of a customs union This results in a trade diversion effect, redirecting trade from the global market to the member countries of the customs union.
下面用图示进一步加以解释贸易创新与贸易转移及其相互关系：
图2.2-1 贸易创造效应
图 2.2-1中 S甲和 D甲分别表示甲国的供求曲线，S乙和 S丙分别表示乙国
研究方法
2.3.1 FTA的简单分析
The trade effects of a country's participation in a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) following tariff reductions can be analyzed using a straightforward theoretical framework, illustrated through graphical representations of FTA trade effects Key impacts of an FTA include trade creation, trade diversion, loss of tariff revenue, changes in trade conditions, and the potential loss of economic efficiency or deadweight losses These effects can be effectively depicted in two charts, with Chart 2.3-1(a) illustrating the situation for non-FTA member countries.
Exporters from FTA member countries benefit from Most Favored Nation (MFN) treatment, similar to non-FTA member countries Figure 2.3-1(b) illustrates the participation of exporting nations in FTAs.
图2.3-1 参与 FTA的影响
图2.2-6(a) H 国市场 图2.2-6(b) P 国市场
图2.3-1(a)中，出口量为 Q1，进口量为 M1和进口国家的税收为（a+b+c+d），
Thuế suất là t và giá trong nước là PW*(1 + t) Hình 2.3-1(b) cho thấy tác động của việc tham gia FTA (được hưởng thuế suất ưu đãi) của quốc gia xuất khẩu đến các quốc gia xuất khẩu và nhập khẩu Một quốc gia thành viên FTA mới với vai trò là nhà xuất khẩu đã tăng lượng xuất khẩu lên Q2 và đạt được giá trị xuất khẩu là (a+b+c), dẫn đến tổn thất thương mại cho các quốc gia không phải thành viên, gọi là chuyển đổi thương mại Tổn thất thuế của quốc gia nhập khẩu là khu vực (a+b+c) Một phần trong số tổn thất này (khu vực a+b) được chuyển giao cho quốc gia xuất khẩu, nhưng khu vực c là tổn thất vô ích, vì nhà xuất khẩu phải chịu chi phí bổ sung để sản xuất thêm hàng hóa, vượt quá chi phí cạnh tranh trung bình Chi phí bổ sung này khiến quốc gia xuất khẩu trở thành nhà cung cấp có chi phí cao, chỉ có thể cung cấp sản phẩm xuất khẩu bổ sung mà không có lợi cho các đối thủ cạnh tranh toàn cầu, vì họ được hưởng thuế suất ưu đãi.
由图 2.3-1 可知：只要世界价格保持不变，进口国家的国内价格也就不会改
Non-FTA exporting countries are unaffected by their production levels in terms of pricing However, if they lose market share, it will lead to surplus supply, prompting a decrease in export prices and consequently lowering global prices As illustrated in Figure 2.3-1(b), the reduction in world prices (PW) affects domestic prices (including taxes) which also decline (PW*(1+t)) This price decrease facilitates increased imports and fosters more trade transactions Importers benefit from the MFN tariff reductions extended to all exporters, potentially resulting in tax savings for consumers, which may be transferred to exporters or lead to inefficiencies.
This simple model can be utilized for analyzing both single and multiple sectors However, to enhance its effectiveness as a key analytical tool, it requires appropriate refinements to incorporate economic complexities, revealing resource constraints such as land, labor, and capital across countries Additionally, it must account for the imperfect substitutability of many goods In practice, general equilibrium models are adept at addressing these issues, while gravity models are employed to assess the accuracy of econometric predictions regarding existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).
2.3.2 可计算一般均衡模型
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models analyze economic interconnections between countries by utilizing input-output tables and trade flows across all sectors, reflecting interactions within the entire economy These models illustrate the dynamics of resource allocation, such as capital, labor, and land Typically, the outcomes of general equilibrium models are lower than those of partial models, as not all sectors can simultaneously scale up When one sector expands due to increased export opportunities, it necessitates the reallocation of production factors from other sectors, resulting in decreased output elsewhere Given the limited supply of land, labor, and capital, any increase in resource use by one sector leads to a corresponding reduction in availability for others, subsequently raising their costs.
Analyzing tariff fluctuations and tax categories allows for the estimation of their impact on prices, production, consumption, and trade, which is a key feature of computable general equilibrium models However, it is insufficient to consider tax categories alone, as many businesses sell their products as intermediate goods, meaning that a price decrease in one sector can benefit others For instance, reducing tariffs on textiles can enhance the competitiveness of the clothing industry in other countries These interdependencies require careful measurement, particularly when numerous variables are involved, necessitating the use of appropriate econometric models to estimate these interactions Trade models can predict the effects of trade policies on various economic variables such as exports, imports, tax revenue, output, employment, wages, and national income, thereby aiding in the understanding of the interactions between different economic forces, comparing the effects of various policies, and providing a quantitative basis for policy decisions.
A key feature of computable general equilibrium models is the incidence of tax, which refers to who ultimately bears the tax burden Typically, taxation creates a separation between producers and consumers When a production tax is imposed on consumers, it leads to lower production costs from the producer's perspective and reduced prices from the consumer's viewpoint This indicates that an import tariff effectively acts as a tax on exports, particularly when it applies to intermediate goods used in the production of export products For instance, an import tariff on textiles can increase production costs for the clothing industry.
本文的可计算一般均衡模型为全球贸易分析模型（Global Trade Analysis
Project，简称 GTAP），即一个证据充分的、多国多部门、静态的模型。并假定
完全竞争 ② 、规模报酬不变；国内生产产品与自国外进口的产品以及自不同进口 来源产品之间存在不完美替代，即所谓的阿明顿假设（Armington assumption）。 为简单起见，标准模型设定人口不变以及没有科技或其他生产要素（如土地， 劳动力，资本）的改变。也就是说，由资本、竞争力、科技以及规模经济变动 而导致的动态效应将被忽略 ③ 。GTAP 能够模型化双边贸易和关税，非常适合用 于自由贸易协定分析，其中各国对一定贸易伙伴国消除关税壁垒而其他的不是。 部门产量变化是因为以下几个因素而导致的：
（1）建议的改革的目标水平；
（2）对商品需求的变化；
（3）成本结构，确定从一个活动的生产要素转给另外一个的可能。
Changes in product demand reflect fluctuations in consumer prices, which are influenced by tariff adjustments Reducing tariffs lowers domestic prices, leading to increased demand However, consumer spending is constrained by income levels, meaning that a price reduction on one product may result in a rise in demand for other goods.
This conclusion relates to the Lerner symmetry condition in trade theory, which posits that if there are no changes in trade balances, tariffs are equivalent to export tariffs.
② 这意味着没有超额利润因为各公司易于进入或退出行业。
These assumptions suggest that both positive and negative impacts are often underestimated They can alter user perceptions regarding the influence of these factors on production; however, accessing this information can be quite challenging.
From a demand perspective, a reduction in tariffs may lead consumers to prefer imported products over domestic ones, potentially resulting in arbitrary choices among different foreign sources This shift is influenced by the elasticity coefficient (Armington), which typically shows lower elasticity between domestic and foreign goods, while the elasticity among different foreign sources is approximately twice as high This indicates that consumers exhibit a particular preference for imported products compared to domestic items, but their selection among products from various countries of origin is less distinctive.
Compared to standard trade models, the Armington model, such as GTAP, highlights significant impacts of trade conditions, suggesting that the consumption shift effect between domestic and imported goods is substantial while the resource redistribution effect is minimal This is due to the uniqueness of each supply source, which cannot be perfectly substituted, leading to a potential decrease in export prices with increased export volumes For instance, Vietnamese leather products cannot easily replace Chinese exports, and an increase in Vietnamese leather exports is likely to result in lower export prices, benefiting importers.
From the supply perspective, output relies on available production factors such as labor, capital, and intermediate goods In developed countries, where labor and capital are assumed to have a fixed supply, the utilization of these factors within a sector depends on their potential for substitution Labor is presumed to move freely between sectors, though not across countries, allowing for transitions such as from agriculture to textiles or services In this context, long-term closure analysis indicates that capital can flow between countries in response to changes in demand for capital goods, leading to a more efficient allocation of resources.
小结
The higher the level of participation in international economic integration, the greater the national benefits gained, which can further promote domestic reforms However, integration is merely a prerequisite; without adequate preparation and proactive reforms, a significant portion of the benefits or welfare may end up being acquired by trading partners.
Even after joining the WTO, bilateral and regional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) exert significant pressure not only on systems and services but also on goods trade.
Participating in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) will significantly reduce tariff barriers from partner countries, providing substantial development opportunities for Vietnam.
Vietnam faces the significant challenge of expanding its export markets and increasing export volumes while navigating the dual nature of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) As these agreements drive economic growth, it is crucial for Vietnam to leverage their positive impacts and address potential downsides Additionally, continually enhancing its internal competitiveness is essential for sustainable development.
This article further examines typical strategies adopted by countries worldwide in response to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), summarizing their development experiences to provide valuable insights for Vietnam.