Dp day ciia ljch sif, ldn ve dan so', da dang ve tpc ngudi va tdn giao, trong dd cd nhieu dan tdc thieu sd' sd'ng dpc bien gidi, cd quan he mat thiet ve huyet thd'ng, van boa cflng [r]
Trang 1TAI DONG A TRONG THAP NIEN DAU THE KY XXI
TRAN KHANH*
Ddng A (bao gdm c i Ddng Bac A va
Ddng N a m A) la mdt bd p h a n
trpng yeu cua k h u vUc c h a u A-Thai Binh
DUdng (CA-TBD), ndi ndi t a p t r u n g
k h d i n g 65% G D P cua t h e gidi, 55% gia trj
thUdng mai tdan c i u , 50% tdng gia tri cac
ngudn d i u tU trUc tiep nUdc ngoai, dang
dupe m e n h d a n h la "khu vUc ciia t h e ky
XXI" Hdn nfla, k h u viic Ddng A la diem
giad thda, d a n xen ldi ich chien lupc ciia
cac nUdc ldn h a n g d a u t h e gidi nhU My,
T r u n g Qud'c, Nga, N h a t B i n va An Dp,
ddng thdi cdn la nOi d a n g ndi len xu h u d n g
lien ket k h u viic k h a m a n h me (nhu
ASEAN, A S E A N + 1 , A S E A N + 3 vv) cflng
n h u sii ten tai ciia cd ca'u chien t r a n h
lanh, diem ndng chUa dUdc giai the (nhu
van de Tieu Tien, ee bien Dai Lean, bien
Ddng, da'u t r a n h y thfle he giai cap) T h e m
vae dd, sfl trpi day va gia t a n g n h a n h
chdng a n h h u d n g ciia T r u n g Qud'c, p h i n
nao dd ciia ca An Dp va sU trd lai cua nUdc
Nga cflng vdi cac nd life mdi cua My va
N h a t B i n t r o n g viec tie'p t u c duy tri "Trat
tfl chau A" tflng dUde thie't lap tfl thdi
chien t r a n h l a n h (My la se 1 va N h a t B i n
la sd 2) cung lam gia t a n g t i m q u a n trpng
cua Deng A t r d n g chien Ifldc k h u vUc va
tean c i u cua cac nUdc ldn T r e n g k h u d n
khd bai viet nay, chflng tdi chi gidi thieu
met each k h a i q u a t ldi ich chien lupc cita
My, T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t B i n va Nga tai
Ddng A hien nay va trong t h a p nien tdi
1 Ldi i c h c h i e n lifdc D o n g A ciia M y
Ne'u n h u dudi thdi chien t r a n h lanh, trpng diem ciia chien lUdc cua My la chau
Au vdi muc tieu n g a n c h a n b a n h trUdng cua Lien Xe, va s a u dd khi Lien Xd sup dd, nha't la budc s a n g d i u t h e ky XXI, trpng diem ciia chien lupc dupc chu trpng hPn c i
la T r u n g Ddng va c h a u A-Thai Binh DUdng, t r e n g dd Ddng A d a n g ndi len nhU mdt m a t xfch trpng yeu
TrUdc bet la IcH ich kinh te, k h u viic
Ddng A, dac biet la T r u n g Que'c da va dang la mdt thj trUdng d i u tU khdng Id, ndi tieu t h u h a n g boa ldn m a n g lai lpi
n h u a n cao cho My Trfl N h a t Ban va mdt sd' con rdng c h a u A k h a c n h u H a n Qud'c, Dai Loan, Xingapo, cac nUdc trong k h u vUc nay deu la nhflng nflde d a n g p h a t trien, thieu vd'n va cdng n g h e k h a lac hau,
n h u n g sUc lao ddng re, d a n g cd chinh sach kich thich d a u tU nUdc ngoai, nha't la vao cac n g a n h cdng n g h e cao, s i n xua't cac
h a n g boa cao cap n h u d td ca n h a n , may vi tinh, dien thoai di ddng vv - nhflng san
p h a m thudc Uu t h e cua My va cac nUdc tU
b i n p h a t trien Hdn nfla, tfl T r u n g Qud'c cho den cac nUdc Ddng N a m A d a n g h i n h
t h a n h nen t i n g ldp t r u n g luu k h a gia Dieu nay lai cang lam t a n g sflc m u a ciia PGS.TSKH Tran Khanh, Vien Nghien cifu Dong Nam A
Trang 220 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
thj t r u d n g , t r o n g k h i d u n g l u p n g t h i
t r u d n g vd'n da k h d n g id do ddng d a n cU
Ngoai ra, cd ca'u k i n h te My va h i u b e t cac
nUdc Ddng A, dac biet la T r u n g Qudc cd
k h i n a n g hd trd, bd s u n g cho n h a u , m a n g
lai ldi ich cho ca h a i p h i a Cac nUde cd nen
kinh te c h u y e n ddi t r o n g k h u viic se t h a m
gia nhieu hdn he thd'ng p h a n cdng lao
ddng qudc te theo chieu dpc, t r o n g dd ddng
vai trd p h u trp chinh t r o n g "chudi gia t r j "
s i n xua't ra s i n p h a m cd cdng n g h e cae dd
phUdng Tay va N h a t B a n chi phdi Dieu
nay se m a n g lai ldi n h u a n cao cho cac n h a
dau t u va cd lpi chd ngudi tieu dflng My va
phUdng T a y b i n g cha't lUdng s i n p h a m
d i m b i d nhUng gia lai re
Vi ldi ich chinh tri, an ninh, thi k h u
vUc Ddng A lai c a n g trd nen q u a n t r p n g
hdn bao gid b e t d k h u vUc nay, lpi ich che
dp va lpi Ich q u y e n l a m chii, kiem sdat dja
chinh trj diia t r e n ldi fch qud'c g i a - d a n tpc
ludn la v a n de n d n g hdi T u y cd sU t h a n g
t r a m , p h a t trien k h a c n h a u , nhUng 3
cUdng qud'c la T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t Ban va
Nga tai Ddng A cd k h a va t h a m vpng kiem
soat toan bp h a y chi phdi tflng m a t ve
kinh te, chinh trj va a n n i n h k h u viic Viec
dieu chinh tfl chinh sach ddl ngoai tfl "da'u
minh chd thdi" s a n g c h u dpng de ra l u a t
chdi, "vach r a nhflng d u d n g dd" t r o n g
q u a n he qud'c te ciia T r u n g Quo'c cflng vdi
t a n g n h a n h thfle lflc k i n h te va qud'c
phdng cua nUdc n a y lam cho My lo lang
Ben c a n h dd, N h a t B a n d a n g t h e o dudi
chinh sach "dudi kjp ve c h i n h t r j " n g a n g
t a m vdi k i n h te, c a n h t a n q u a n dpi de trd
t h a n h "qud'c gia b i n h thfldng" c u n g it
nhieu lam My t r a n trd Hdn nfla, viec
nflde Nga tflng bflde p h u c hdi t r o n g t h a p
nien d i u t h e ky XXI va d a n g dieu c h i n h
chfnh sach c a n b a n g D 6 n g - T a y , q u a n t a m
n h i e u hdn vdi cac nu'dc c h a u A, t r o n g dd
chfl trpng cai t h i e n q u a n h e vdi T r u n g
Qud'c va An Dp, cflng la v a n de khdng
b i n g p h i n g ddl vdi d u y tri vj t h e cua My
d Ddng A T h e m vao dd, cupc k h i i n g hoang
h a t n h a n d B i c T r i e u Tien d a n g bflng
p h a t cflng nhfl xu hfldng xich g a n gifla hai
bd ed bien D a i L o a n dfldi thdi c i m quyen cua Qud'c D a n D a n g do M a A n h cifu lam tdng thd'ng va nhflng t r a n h c h a p chu
q u y e n d bien D d n g gifla T r u n g Qud'c va
n h i e u nflde Dong N a m A cd chieu hudng trd n e n c a n g t h a n g d a n g t a o r a ca cd hdi
l i n t h a c h thfle ddl vdi My Ngoai r a , k h u viic Ddng A, ndi My h i e n dien, cd q u a n he
t r u y e n t h d n g va ddng m i n h chien lUdc vdi
n h i e u qud'c gia h a y doi tac n h u vdi N h a t
B i n , H a n Qud'c, D a i L o a n , Philippin, Thai
L a n va O t x t r a y l i a Nhflng q u y e n Ipi cflng
n h u r a n g bupc lan n h a u gifla My vdi cac qudc gia va k h u vUc n a y khd cd t h e lam
My ldi la Hdn nfla, sfl ndi len n h a n h chdng cUa T r u n g Qudc nhfl mpt h a t n h a n
t h u c day tie'n t r i n h lien ke't k h u viic va sfl
h i n h t h a n h chii n g h i a k h u vUc Ddng A ( n h u h i n h t h a n h Cpng ddng ASEAN, Cd
c h e H p p t a c A S E A N + 1 , A S E A N + 3 ,
T h u p n g d i n h D d n g A (EAS), Hpp tac 3 nudc Ddng Bac A gdm T r u n g Qud'c - N h a t
B a n - H a n Qud'c, t r o n g do k h d n g cd My
t h a m gia) cd t h e l a m tdn thUdng den quyen lpi va t h a c h thfle vai t r o "ngfldi can
b a n g " va "trpng t a i " a n n i n h , nha't la ddl vdi cac qud'c gia v e n bien t h u p c c h a u
A-T h a i Binh D u d n g
2 Ldi i c h c h i e n lufdc D o n g A c u a
T r u n g Q u o c
Khac vdi My, T r u n g Qudc k h d n g chi la qud'c gia n a m t r o n g k h u vUc Dong A, ma tflng la "Thien trieu", quo'c gia ' T r u n g
t a m " cua t h i e n h a , mdt t r o n g nhflng cai noi cua n e n v a n m i n h n h a n loai va co mdi
q u a n he c h a t che ve lich sif va v a n hoa vdi
Trang 3cae nudc x u n g q u a n h Su trd lai ciia T r u n g
Qudc vdi t u each la cudng qud'c chau A va
d a n g hu'dng tdi mpt sieu cudng mdi ciia the
gidi trong khi v i n duy tri la mot nUdc chii
nghia xa hdi ldn n h a t bien nay cflng dat ra
nhieu van de ldn, lien q u a n de'n ldi ich
cflng n h u i n h hUdng chien lUpc ciia chinh
nudc nay tai Ddng A va t r e n t h e gidi
Trudc b e t ve ldi ich kinh te; Ddng A da
va d a n g la k h u vUc p h a t trien kinh te
n a n g ddng, ndi trdng nhflng t h a p nien g i n
day d i i n r a q u a hpi n h a p k i n h te k h a chat
che vdi c i ben t r o n g va ben ngoai Cac
nudc Ddng B i c A n h u N h a t Ban, H a n
Qud'c la nhflng n e n k i n h te p h a t trien hay
nUdc da cdng nghiep hea, cd ngudn vd'n
ldn, trinh dp edng n g h e cao d a n g tim
kiem cd hdi dau tU d hai ngoai T r u n g
Qudc d a n g la thi t r u d n g ha'p dan ddl vdi
hp TU 2007, T r u n g Qud'c da vUdt My va
trd t h a n h ddl tac thUdng mai h a n g d i u
cua N h a t B i n va H a n Qudc vdi kinh
ngach xua't n h a p k h a u hai chieu n a m
2008 len tdi g i n 266,8 ty USD (vdi Nhat)
va 186,2 ty (vdi H a n Que'c) Cdn nUdc Nga
va cac T r u n g A k h a c thudc Lien Xd cfl
trUdc day d phUdng Bac va Tay Bac khdng
chi la nhflng ddl tac cd k h a n a n g cung cap
ngudn nguyen lieu, nha't la d i u khi va sat
thep chd cdng n g h i e p boa ciia T r u n g Qud'c,
ma cdn la thj trfldng de t i n h , tieu t h u cac
s i n p h a m cua cdng nghiep nhe, nhflng
m a t h a n h d a n g cd lpi t h e canh t r a n h
thudc ve T r u n g Qudc
O phia Ddng N a m A va N a m A, cac
nu'dc ASEAN va An Dp d a n g la nhflng nen
kinh te n a n g dpng, ndi m a nhieu m a t
h a n g cdng n g h i e p va nong nghiep cua
T r u n g Qudc d a n g cd ldi t h e c a n h t r a n h tai
cac thj trfldng nay Ddi vdi Dong N a m A,
ndi h a n g xdm l a n g gieng s a t ke cua T r u n g
Qud'c k h d n g chi giau c6 ve ngudn tai
nguyen t h i e n n h i e n , t r o n g dd cd d i u khi, bauxite, va n h i e u thfl kim loai mau n h u ddng, thiec vv , ma la k h u viie dja-chien lupc, ndi cd cac t u y e n dudng h a n g hai trpng yeu cua qud'c te di qua Tfl gifla t h a p nien d i u cua t h e ky XXI, T r u n g Que'c da gan s a n h n g a n g My, N h a t Ban va EU trdng budn b a n vdi Ddng N a m A ' " Hdn nfla k h u viic nay trong ljch sif la cfla ngo phUdng N a m , t r u y e n thd'ng va q u a n trong nha't cua T r u n g Qudc ddl vdi ben ngoai, ndi dang hien dien ddng d i o Cdng ddng ngu'di Hoa (khoang 35 trieu ngu'di) dang sinh sd'ng Cdng ddng nay cd n a n g liic ve tien vd'n va k i n h nghiem k i n h doanh, cd mdi q u a n he c h a t che ve kinh te va van boa vdi T r u n g Qud'c T r e n thu'e te', cdng ddng nay da va ddng gdp to ldn cho cdng cudc p h a t trien k i n h te trong nUdc, md rdng q u a n he hdp tac va lien ke't gifla
T r u n g Qud'c luc dja vdi Hdng Cdng-Ma Cao, Dai Loan va vdi cac nflde ASEAN'^'
Ve ldi ich chinh tri, an ninh, Neu nhif
dudi thdi chien t r a n h lanh, Ddng A la ndi
t a p t r u n g cae dp cac m a u t h u i n cua true
t a m giac chien lUdc My-Trung-Xd va la diem ndng gay g i t nha't t r o n g cudc ddi dau gifla hai ciic Lien Xd va My, thi sau
dd, khi Lien Xd t a n ra, trpng t a m canh
t r a n h c h i e n lUdc t r d n g k h u vUc nay chuyen s a n g t r u e q u a n he M y - T r u n g va
T r u n g - N h a t Ldi ich an n i n h ciia T r u n g Qud'c tfl thdi ky nay g i n lien vdi mdi
t r u d n g hda dui, hda giai, t r a n h xung ddt vdi cac nudc ldn, dac biet la My, N h a t B i n , ddng thdi n h a n h chdng day q u a n he hflu nghi, hdp tac vdi Nga va An Dp, ldi keo cac nude ASEAN ve phia m i n h Hdn nfla, cac van de tdn tai cua ljch si& nhfl t r a n h chap chu quyen l a n h hai gifla T r u n g Qudc vdi
N h a t B a n , H a n Qud'c va dac biet vdi nhieu nudc ASEAN, nha't la vdi Viet N a m c i n dfldc kiem soat, v a n de thd'ng n h a t hai bd
Trang 422 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
Ed bien Dai Ldan va khiing hding hat
nhan d Bac Trieu Tien c i n dfldc giii quyet
bang cen dUdng hda binh NhUng van de
nay la bet sUc nhay cim, khd trung hea ldi
fch gifla cac ben Neu nhu khdng kiem
seat dupe tinh hinh, xay ra xung dot thi
mdi trudng an ninh Ddng A se xa'u di
nhanh chdng, trong dd Trung Qud'c cd the
la nude ehju thiet hai nhieu nhat Dieu
nay Trung Qud'c nhan thUe re hdn ai het
va hp dang ce' gang lai chinh sach ngeai
giao cua hp theo hudng gifl nguyen hien
trang, hpp tac cflng cd lpi tren phUdng
cham "lam ban vdi lang gieng, an ninh vdi
lang gieng va lam giau vdi lang gieng"
Tuy nhien, trong nhflng trudng hpp, van
de cu the, Trung Qud'c cd each flng xif
cfldng, nhu khac nhau, tuy tflng thdi
diem, del tac va tUdng quan liic lUdng
Mdi quan he gifla mei trUdng dja chinh
tri, kinh te va van hoa xung quanh Trung
Qudc vdi tinh hinh ben trong Trung Qud'c
cflng tao ra ca nhflng cd hpi va thach thfle
del vdi lpi chien lUdc ciia nUdc nay Dp day
ciia ljch sif, ldn ve dan so', da dang ve tpc
ngudi va tdn giao, trong dd cd nhieu dan
tdc thieu sd' sd'ng dpc bien gidi, cd quan he
mat thiet ve huyet thd'ng, van boa cflng
nhu ljch sif vdi nhieu tpc ngudi cac nUdc
lang gieng, nhat la vdi cac nUdc vflng
Trung A, Ddng Nam A cflng gdp phan tad
chd Trung Qud'c cd lpi the nha't djnh treng
md rdng hdp tac va anh hfldng ciia hp ra
xung quanh Tuy nhien, dieu nay cflng tae
ra khdng it Ap liic ve mat an ninh dpc bien
gidi Cac the liic ly khai ca treng va ngdai
nudc cd the ldi dung sii bat cap trong
chfnh sach doan ket dan tpc de pha hoai
sii dn djnh va phat trien cua da't nUdc
Hdn nfla, sfl trung thanh cua cac dan tdc
thieu so', cac khu vUc tU trj ddl vdi qud'c gia
Trung Qud'c khong hoan toan nhfl y mud'n
cua chinh quyen Trung fldng Sfl de doa ve
an ninh qud'c gia tfl trong ndi tai, ban than ciia Trung Qud'c cd the cdn ldn hdn nhieu
so vdi sfl de doa tfl ben ngoai Chfnh vi vay, khi xif ly cac van de an ninh va phat trien, nha't la lien quan den van de dan tpc thieu so, Trung Qudc ludn chfl y va
c i n h giac ve van de nay Tuy nhien khdng phai lflc nao chinh phii Trung Udng cung kiem soat dUpc tinh hinh Nhflng bao loan lien quan den sac tpc xay ra lien tiep tai Tay Tang va Tan Cudng vad mfla he nam
2008 va 2009 vfla qua la mpt vi du dien hinh Day la mdt trong nhflng van de chfnh trj nhay cam, tac ddng ldn den ldi ich chien Ifldc ciia Trung Qudc
3 Ldi ich c h i e n li:fdc D o n g A cua
N h a t B a n
Khac vdi Trung Qud'c, Nhat Ban la mdt qud'c gia bien dao, nam d vi dia-chien Ifldc het sflc quan trpng trong thfldng mai va phdng thil d khu vUc ven bien Ddng Bic A,
la cau ndi quan trong gifla My va Ddng A Hdn nfla, hien la cfldng qud'c hang dau the gidi ve kinh te, nhflng Nhat Ban lai cd tieng ndi ve chfnh trj va vai trd an ninh cdn kha khiem td'n, chUa can xflng vdi sflc manh tien bac ciia minh Them vao dd, sfl ndi len nhanh chdng ciia Trung Qud'c, sfl tai k h i n g djnh vi the cHa Nga trong bdi canh tri t r i cua Nhat Ban cflng dat ra nhieu van de mang tfnh chien Ifldc sd'ng cdn cila Nhat Ngoai ra, sii gia tang khimg hoang hat nhan tren ban d i o Trieu Tien cflng nhu cac van de ljch sii de lai khac nhu tranh chap lanh thd vdi Nga ve quan dao Kuril, vdi Trung Qud'c ve dao Senkaku ma phia Trung Qud'c gpi la Dieu NgU Dai, vdi Han Quo'c d mpt so' dao nhd ngoai khdi, cflng vdi tam ly lo ngai ve sfl trpi day trd lai cua chu nghia quan phiet Nhat cung nhfl sfl rang buoc cua hiep flde
Trang 5phdng t h u đng m i n h N h a t - M y cflng tao
r a k h d n g it dieu k h d xif t r o n g viec md rpng
i n h h u d n g va lpi ieh chien lUdc cua N h a t
t r e n the gidi, nhát la d Ddng Ạ
Trudc b e t ve ldi ich kinh te; Su md rdng
cac cd hdi thUdng m a i va d a u tU tai cac
nude cd n e n k i n h te mdi c h u y e n đi d
Ddng A n h u T r u n g Qud'c va Viet N a m da
va d a n g t a e cd hpi k i e m ldi ciia N h a t B i n
T r u n g Qud'c da t h a y t h e My trd t h a n h đl
tac thUdng m a i Idn n h a t cua N h a t B i n
Viet N a m , M d n g Cd va cac nUdc thudc
Lien Xd cfl cflng d a n g la thj trUdng h a p
dan d i u tU cua N h a t B i n Viec hdp tac
vdi Nga xay dUng dUdng dng d a n d i u
s a n g vflng bd bien Vien D e n g cflng d a n g
la lpi ieh chien lupc ciia N h a t B i n Sii ndi
len ciia cac n e n k i n h n a y cd k h i n a n g
giflp N h a t B i n đi mdi cdng nghe va gia
t a n g x u a t k h a u s i n p h a m cd h a m Ifldng
c h a t xam cad b a n g each c h u y e n m e t bp
p h a n cac n h a m a y cd cdng n g h e vfla p h a i
r a nudc ngeai va đng vai trd la n h a cung
cap cac linh kien, m a y mdc va day chuyen
s i n xuát hien dai cho cdng viec l i p r a p ,
s i n xuát h a n g xuát k h a u tai cac nUde đ
Dieu n a y ngudi N h a t da tflng tien h a n h
đi vdi cac nUdc A S E A N tfl nhflng n a m
60-70 Tuy n h i e n , t r o n g bdi c i n h gia t a n g
canh t r a n h , nhát la sfl trdi day cua T r u n g
Qud'c n h u "mpt cdng x u d n g t h e gidi" va xu
the lien k e t k i n h te k h u vUc diia t r e n dac
diem, sii g i n gui ve m a t dja Iy thi sii be
sung gifla n e n k i n h te N h a t B i n vdi h a u
het cac n e n k i n h te cdn lai ciia Ddng A cd
y nghia chien Ifldc đl vdi N h a t Ban Hdn
nfla, sii k h a n h i e m ve n h i e n l i e u / n a n g
Ifldng cflng la bai t d a n khd d a t r a , bupc
N h a t B i n p h i i t a n g cfldng hpp tac n a n g
lupng vdi cac nUdc t r e n g k h u viic nhát la
vdi cac qud'c gia cd t i e m n a n g ve ngudn dfl
trfl tai n g u y e n naỵ C h i n h vi vay, chinh
Scich "ngoai giao k i n h tế, t r o n g đ cd
"ngoai giao ODA" ket hdp vdi "ngoai giao
v a n boa" la nhflng h u d n g d a n g dupe ngudi N h a t chfl trpng, n h i m khdng chi duy trị ma lam t a n g ldi ich chien lUpc
k i n h te, chinh trj ciia hp t r o n g k h u vUe va
t r e n t h e gidị
Ve lgi ich chinh tri, an ninh; N h a t Ban
la mpt t r o n g nhflng nUdc n a m t r e n v a n h dai dja chinh trj n h a y c i m , thieu dn djnh
ve m a t a n ninh Dieu nay da va d a n g tao
r a ca cd hdi va t h a c h thUc đl vdi ldi ich quéc g i a - d a n tpc cita N h a t Ban ca hien tai cflng n h u lau daị TrUde b e t la lien q u a n den sii trdi day cUa T r u n g Qud'c Ve khach
q u a n ma nei, sii p h a t trien n h a n h chdng ciia T r u n g Qud'c cd k h a n a n g thfle day hpp tac k h u viic, lam chd nUdc nay hdi n h a p
n h a n h chdng vad he thd'ng kinh te va chinh trj t h e gidị N h u n g ben canh đ, ve
m a t dja chinh trj va quyen ldi qudc gia dan tdc, thi sU p h a t trien đ dfl mud'n, dfl khdng lam suy giam t h j p h a n kinh te, tieng ndi chinh trj cflng n h u vai trd a n
n i n h N h a t B a n tai Ddng A va t r e n t h e gidị Hdn nfla, sfl dau tU ngay cang ldn cho viec hien dai hoa q u a n sU, nhát la hai
q u a n cflng vdi sU gia t a n g đi chu quyen cua T r u n g Qud'c t r e n cac vflng bien d i o , keo dai tfl v u n g bien V a n g cho t a n Ddng
h i i va N a m h i i (bien Ddng) cflng lam cho nhieu ngfldi N h a t lo lang, bdi k h u vflc nay
t a p t r u n g cac h u y e t mach thUdng mai
h a n g h i i eUa N h a t Ban vdi t h e gidị Dieu d a n g lflu y d day la lan d i u tien trong ljch sif Ddng A x u a t hien h a i cudng qud'c cung c a n h t r a n h va d a n g n i m gifl
p h i n chu dao ciia cue dien k h u vUc Tuy nhien can can quyen lUc d a n g nghieng ve
T r u n g Qud'c, nhát la sflc m a n h tdng the qud'c giạ Mac d i u q u a n he k i n h te N h a t
-T r u n g d a n g p h a t trien m a n h va la đl tac
h a n g d a u cua n h a u , nhflng trong chinh
Trang 624 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
trj, an ninh thi h i u nhu dam chan tai chd,
ma nhieu ngudi thudng gpi la "lanh"
Nhieu ngUdi Nhat chd rang, sU hien dai
boa nen kinh te va quan sii cua Trung
Qud'c la mdi de doa tiem tang ddl vdi Nhat
Ban; Con khdng it ngudi Trung Qudc coi
sU tdn tai quan he ddng minh chien lUdc
Nhat-My va sU ddi md'i quan dpi cua Nhat
de trd thanh "qudc gia binh thudng" dien
ra nhanh chdng trong nhflng nam gan day
dang tao them mdi uy hiep ddl vdi an ninh
cua Trung Qudc Cflng vdi nhflng bat
ddng, ke ca thfl ban va tranh chap do Ijch
sif de lai, nhflng gia tang chi phi quan sii
va chay dua kinh te gifla hai nUdc nay
dang la mpt trong nhflng van de ldn ve
chinh trj, an ninh va hdi nhap kinh te d
Ddng A Vay lam the nao de thay ddi each
nghj "mdt nfli khdng the cd hai hd", lam
mat dan di sii nghi ky do ljch sif de lai va
trung boa lpi ich ciia cac ben de cflng tdn
tai va phat trien vv la nhflng van de het
sflc quan trpng ciia ca Nhat B i n va Trung
Qud'c cflng nhu khu vUc phai ddl mat
trong thap nien tdi cua the ky XXI
Ngoai van de mang t i m chien lUdc
tren, sil gia tang cang thang tren ban d i e
Trieu Tien, sU xfch g i n ve kinh te va cai
thien nhanh chdng ve chinh trj gifla dei bd
ed bien Dai Lean cflng tad ra nhieu le ling
ddl vdi Nhat Hdn nfla, sfl hinh thanh Khu
viic thudng mai tU do Trung Qud'c
-ASEAN (ACFTA) va sU tang cUdng dau tu
va vien trd cUa Trung Qudc cho cac nUdc
ASEAN -4 cflng tao ra sfl canh tranh ldn
ddl vdi Nhat Ban, nOi ma ngfldi Nhat dang
cd' gang duy tri va md rpng lpi ich vd'n cd
cila ho tai khu vUc nay''^'
4 Ldi ich chien lu'dc Dong A cua Nga
Dac thfl ndi bat cUa Nga la nflde nam
tren luc dja A-Au, trong do phan lanh thd
d chau A chie'm tdi khoang 80%, ndi tap trung cac ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien chu chd't ciia Nga Hdn nfla, vung da't chau
A ciia Nga lai tiep giap tiep vdi khu viic chau A-Thai Binh DUdng (CA-TBD), ndi
cd cac nen kinh te nang dpng, dang la diu tau ciia nen kinh te the gidi va dang dien
ra kha manh me qua trinh lien ket khu viic Day la nhflng cd hpi thuan ldi de Nga tham gia, tang cudng hpp tac, md rdng quan he, trUdc het la kinh te khu viic nay Tuy nhien khu viic Ddng A cdn la ndi ehfla dung nhieu nguy cd bflng nd xung dot, cd the gay nguy hai cho an ninh nUdc Nga d khu vUc nay, cd ca'u chien tranh khdng chi cdn tdn tai (nhU van de thd'ng nha't, ddl dau y thfle he gifla hai mien Nam Bac Trieu Tien, ddi bd bien Dai Loan) ma cdn gia tang mau thuan, xung dot ve tranh chap chii quyen, nha't la d bien dao va chay dua vu trang Them vao
dd, khu viic Trung A qua bien Caxpi chay dai de'n khu vUc Kavkav, ndi tiep giap vdi Afganistan va nhieu nUdc Trung can Ddng la diem ndng trong cupc chien chdng khiing bd' toan cau, lai n i m sat sudn phia Nam eda Nga Dieu nay da va dang tac dpng true tiep de'n an ninh phfa Nam va Ddng Nam ciia nflctc Nga
Ben canh dd, sfl ndi len nhanh chdng cUa Trung Quo'c va An Dp cung tao ra Ap lflc mdi ve nang Ifldng va moi trfldng Vflng Vien Ddng cua nude Nga giau cd ve tai nguyen thien nhien, chie'm tdi 2/3 dien tich ca nudc, nhUng dan so' thUa thdt, cd
sd ha tang yeu kem dang dat ra nhieu thach thfle doi vdi nflde nay trong kiem soat ngfldi nhap cfl bat hdp phap va tdi pham, nha't la buon lau Tuy nhien trong gan han va trung han, Nga mud'n sif dung ddn bay cua "ngoai giao dau k h f khdng chi de tang nhanh ngudn thu nhap ndi
Trang 7dja, eai tien cdng n g h e , p h a t t r i e n vflng
Vien Ddng n g a n g b i n g vdi p h i n d chau
Au, ma q u a n t r p n g k h d n g k e m la tflng
budc xac l a p a n h h u d n g tai k h u vUc c h a u
A-Thai Binh DUdng cho tUdng xUng vdi
tiem n a n g ciia h p ' "
Ngeai ra, sU md rdng eua NATO ve
phia Ddng, de'n t a n s a t n g a y bien gidi Nga
d phia Tay va N a m cflng n h u can t h i e p
sau eua My vae k h u vUe T r u n g A da va
dang lam tdn thUdng de'n quyen ldi
dia-chinh trj eiia Nga Viec md rdng q u a n he
vdi phUdng Ddng, dac biet vdi T r u n g
Qud'c, An Dp va cac nUdc Ddng N a m A se
p h i n nao g i i m di Ap lUc dja chfnh tri, lam
can b a n g hdn t r o n g chinh sach ddl ngoai
cua Nga, c i ve k i n h te, chfnh trj, a n ninh
TrUdc b e t ve hdp tdc vd cgnh tranh
kinh te; Nga cd t h e m a n h la giau tai
nguyen thien, dae biet la d i u khf, lai ed
the chu ddng ke c i ngudn vdn va cdng
nghe trong k h a i t h a c , v a n ehuyen s i n
p h a m nay ra nUdc ngoai, t r o n g dd cd Ddng
A T r u n g Qud'c, N h a t B a n va nhieu nen
kinh te khac d a n g k h a t n a n g lupng, ngay
cang p h u thupc vao n g u d n n h a p d a u k h i
de p h a t trien T r o n g lflc c h u a tim r a mdt
lai n a n g lUdng k h a c t h a y t h e vai trd ciia
dau khf, thi "cai gay n a n g lUdng" cua Nga
cdn cd hieu q u a ldn t r o n g viec thiet lap vj
the cua nga t r e n t h e gidi, trong cd d k h u
viic c h a u A - T h a i Binh DUdng Tie'p den,
the m a n h tie'p theo cua Nga ca trong kinh
te va an n i n h la N g a cd cdng nghe cao vao
bac nha't t h e gidi t r o n g viec s i n xua't vu
khi hien dai T h e m vao dd, ky t h u a t cdng
nghe cao t r o n g cac n h a n h n h u s i n xua't
cac thie't bj xay diing cac n h a may t h u y
dien, n h i e t dien, n a n g lupng h a t n h a n ,
h a n g khdng d a n d u n g va vfl t r u , ddng t a u
bien, vat lieu xay vv cflng la the m a n h
truyen thd'ng cua Nga va ngay cang cd chd
dflng nhieu hdn trong thj trUdng Ddng A
Tuy nhien, do d Ddng A tflng thjnh
h a n h cac s i n p h a m cd h a m lupng cdng
n g h e cad cua My, N h a t Ban va nhieu con rdng c h a u A k h a c , ddng thdi sU gia t a n g
n h a n h chdng sUc c a n h t r a n h s i n p h a m cdng ngghiep cua T r u n g Qud'c, nen k h i
n a n g c a n h t r a n h b a n g hda cua Nga hien tai van cdn k h a k h i e m ton Tuy nhien, theo da ddi mdi cua nude Nga, cae m a t
h a n h ed t h e m a n h eua Nga se cd chd dUng vflng d k h u vUc nay
P h i i cdng n h a n rang, nUde Nga c i trong truyen thd'ng cflng n h u hien tai ed vai trd quan trpng h a n g d i u trong giai quye't cac
van de chinh tri- an ninh toan c i u va hp cd
lpi ich chien lUde to ldn va lau dai d Ddng
A Tuy chi phf qud'c phdng hien nay chi
b a n g khoang 1/10 so vdi My, nhUng nUdc Nga van cdn la mdt sieu cudng ve q u a n sU, dUng thfl hai the gidi Mdt se'linh viic q u a n
sU n h u ten lifa dan dao, chinh phuc vfl t r u
va vfl khi h a t n h a n g i n ngang ngifa vdi
My Hdn nfla, Nga la cudng qud'c ve chfnb trj, khdng ehi la mpt trong n a m t h a n h vien ciia Hpi ddng bao a n Lien hop qud'c cd quyen phii quye't, ma cdn la nUde ed kha
n a n g dUa ra cac hpc thuyet, sang kien va hien thUc hea chflng trdng viec lien minh, lien ket, t a p hpp liic lUdng lam t h a y ddi
t r a t t u the gidi Dieu nay da dupe chUng minh trong ljch sif va van cdn cd k h a n a n g tai hien trong tUdng lai, khi d a t nUdc nay thie't lap lai dupe sii dn djnh va ddng t h u a n
xa hpi Nga Nhflng bieu hien mdi ve phuc hdi va bao ve ldi fch chien lUdc Nga la viec nUde nay gia t a n g sU hien d chau A, treng
dd thiet lap q u a n he ddl tac chien lupc vdi
T r u n g Qud'c, An Dp va ASEAN
Noi tom lgi, Ddng A la diem xoay chien
lupc, ndi k h d n g chi dan xen, giao thoa quyen ldi ca trUdc m a t cung n h u lau dai
Trang 826 Nghien cifu Ddng Nam A 4/2010
khdng chi ciia cac nUdc trong khu vUc, ma
ca cac nUdc ngoai khu vUc, trUde het la
cua cac nude ldn Trpng diem chien lUdc
cua My d Ddng A hien nay la ce ging duy
tri "Trdt tii Chdu A" dUdc thie't lap tfl hdi
chien tranh lanh, trong dd budc Nhat Ban
phai ludn di vdi minh va thiic hien chinh
sach can du, vfla hdp tac, vfla canh tranh
vdi Trung Qud'c, va ca Nga va An Dp,
nham dfla cac nUde nay trd thanh nhflng
"cd ddng cd trach nhiem" trong he thd'ng
qud'c te Tuy nhien da cd sfl co gian ldn
hdn trong quan he ciia My ddl vdi cac nUdc
Idn d chau A, trdng dd Trung Qud'c dang
trd nen quan trpng hdn, dUde danh gia cao
bdn trdng chinh sach tdan cau cung nhU
khu viic cua My
Cdn ddl vdi Trung Qud'c, khu viic Ddng
A khdng chi la khu vUc i n h hfldng truyen
thd'ng ciia Trung Qud'c, ndi ludn dien ra
tranh chap quyen lpi gifla Trung Qud'c vdi
cac nflde ldn ca trong va ngoai khu vflc,
ma cdn la ndi the nghiem chien Ifldc cflng
chung sdng hoa binh va lam giau vdi lang
gieng cua Trung Qud'c Tuy nhien nhu cau
md rdng "khdng gian sinh tdn" va quang
ba "md hinh xa hdi chu nghia" cUa nUdc
nay dang gap nhieu thach thfle bdi chinh
sach can dfl va canh tranh cUa nhieu nUdc
Idn khac, trUdc het la My Day la diem
mau chdt chi phdi mdi trUdng dja chinh
trj va an ninh ciia Ddng A hien nay, nha't
la trong tUdng lai gin
Ddl vdi Nhat Ban, do n i m tren vanh
dai dja chinh tri nhay cam, nhUng lai sdi
dpng trong hpp tac va phat trien kinh te,
nen mdi quan tam hang d i u eda nUdc nay
hien nay la lam the nao lam tang sflc
manh tdng the qud'c gia, chfl khong rieng
ve kinh te, loai bd dan nhflng nghi ky do
ljch sif de lai, trung hoa lpi fch cua cac ben
d Ddng A, dac biet la vdi Trung Qud'c de
cflng ten tai va phat trien Day la nhflng thach thfle kheng chi vdi Nhat Ban, ma ca Trung Qud'c, My va nhieu nflde khac treng khu vUc va tren the gidi
Cdn ddl vdi Nga, lpi ich chien ludc Ddng
A cUa hp trudc mat va trong tUOng lai gin
la duy tri va phat trien cac mdi quan he hda binh va hdp tac vdi Trung Qud'c, Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c va cac nUdc ASEAN, de tfl can b i n g hdn trong quan he vdi EU va My Tuy nhien, do nhflng khd khan, han che npi tai hien nay cila Nga cung vdi sfl gia tang canh tranh chien Ifldc gifla cac nUdc ldn nham kiem soat hay chiem Uu the ve dja chinh trj khu vUc va the gidi dang la nhflng thach thfle cua nUdc nay tren dfldng lap lai vi the sieu cudng cua hp./
CHU THICH
1 Kim ngach xua't nhap khau Trung Quoc -ASEyy^ nam 2008 da len tdi 231,1 ty USD, trong dd xua't khiu tfl Trung Quoc tang len gin 21% so vdi nam 2007 (Xem them: So' lieu Thd'ng ke ve tinh hinh phat trien kinh te - xa hpi Trung Quo'c nam 2008 do Cue Thong ke Nha nifdc Cpng hoa Nhan dan Trung Hoa cdng bd ngay 26/2/2009)
2 Xem them: Tran Khanh Su tie'n trien trong quan he ASEAN-Trung QudcZ/Nghien cflu Dong Nam A, sd 2, 2004; Ngifdi Hoa trong quan he Trung Qudc-ASEAN/ZNghien cflu Trung Qud'c, sd 4, 2004
3 Xem them: Hoai Nam Trung Qudc vdi Hanh lang Kinh te D6ng-Tay//Nghien cflu Ddng Nam A, 11/2008, tr 47-53; Tran Khanh Dong Nam A trong canh tranh chien lifdc Trung-Nhat//Nghien cflu Dong Nam A, sd 1/2009, tr 13-21
4 Xem them: Su trpi day cua Nga: Nhflng tac dpng ddl vdi khu vUc chau A-Thai Binh Difdng//Nghien cflu Qud'c te, sd 2(73), thang 6-2008, tr 71-75