Tài liệu Climate change and impacts in Viet Nam pptx

CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM... • Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources... Ann

CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM

CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM

• Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable

countries due to CC and sea level rise

• If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of land, 23% of population will be affected

• Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity

• Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources

1 m

2 m

3 m

4 m

5 m

WB 2007

Impacts of sea level rise

“Large percentage of Vietnam’s population and economic activities are located in these two river deltas 14% of Vietnam population would be impacted by a 1m SLR This

is the largest percentage of impacted population among all 84 countries Vietnam impacted population would reach 35% with a 5m SLR The impact of SLR on

Vietnam’s GDP and urban extent follow the impact on its population”.

Inundation in Mekong River Delta

due to 1 m Sea Level Rise

Source: HMS

• Annual average temperature

increases about 0.10C per decade

In some summer months,

temperature increases about

0.1-0.3oC per decade

Source: Vietnam National communication

21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

2 1

O

C

Yea r

Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi

station.

Annual temperature Climate Change in Vietnam

• More heavy rainfalls

causing severe floods;

• Rainfall decreases in dry season (Jul., Aug.) and increases in

rainy season (Sep to Nov.).

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

2 1

m m

Year

Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of

August-December rainfall at A Luoi station.

Rainfall of Aug.-Dec.

Typhoon trajectory moves southward and typhoon season shifts to later

months of the year;

Climate Change in Vietnam

Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (1985–2005)

[Nicholls et al , 2007]

• High floods occur more frequently in the Central

and Southern Vietnam.

• Drought happen every year in most regions of the country.

Climate Change in Vietnam

• ENSO has stronger effects

on weather regime and

climatic features in various

areas of Viet Nam;

• Sea level rises from 2.5-3

cm per decade in the last

century

Climate Change Vietnam

Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations

[Source: Nicholls et al., 2007]

Impacts on Coastal Zone

Impacts of

Climate Change

Public Health

Environ ment

Tourism Energy

Forestry

Agriculture

Water Respurses

Climate Change

Impact on Agriculture

• Shift of planting boundary: By 2070s, tropical trees/ crops would be able to grow

at the altitude 100-550 meters higher and move 100-200 km northwards compared to present.

• Large areas in Mekong and Red River deltas would be under salt water due to sea level rise.

Yield of rice decrease

by 10% for every 1 o C

increase in growing

season minimum

temperature (IPCC AR4

WG2TS, 2007)

Source: Vietnam National communication

Impacts on Water Resources

• Instability in rainfall would cause

more severe floods in rainy season

and droughts in dry season

• Increase in frequency and intensity

of typhoons, storms would cause

high floods & inundation, flash

floods, landslide and erosion

• Increasing water shortage and

growing water demand threaten

water supply, water use conflicts

Source: Vietnam National communication

Impacts on Forestry

• Decrease of mangrove forest,

due to sea level rise.

• Forest with drought stand

varieties would increase due to

low soil moisture and high

evapotranspiration.

• Biodiversity degradation:

extinction of endangered

species;

• Increasing risk of forest fire;

• Increase and wide spread of

plant pests and diseases

Source: Vietnam National communication

Impacts on Aquaculture & Fisheries

• Sea level rise would reduce fresh

water creatures in rivers &

estuaries, high temperature –

reduce high valuable sub-tropical

fishes;

• Habitat loss for young creatures

due to mangrove decrease;

• Reducing sea products

productivity and commercial

quality due to:

– Migration of fishes;

– Reduction of body weight

Source: Vietnam National communication

Impacts on Coastal Zone

• Large areas of the Mekong, Red River

deltas and Central coastal zone would

be inundated due to sea level rise

• Coastal & estuarine wetlands would

be affected due to frequent floods,

severe drought & salinity (Ca Mau,

Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and

Nam Dinh)

• Livelihood of coastal population will

be affected by more severe storms,

flood, drought and sea level rise

Projections for a 1 m sea level rise:

15,000-20,000 km 2 of Mekong River delta flooded,

affecting 3.5 to 5 million people, respectively

IPCC AR4, 2007

Impacts on Energy, Transportation

• Oil, gas platforms would be affected by typhoons, storms;

• Seaports and roads designed basing on historical sea level would be affected

• Less energy generation due to drought ;

• Unstable flow regimes may lead to conflict in water

regulation at hydropower stations

• More energy consumption for due to high temperature and humidity

Source: Vietnam National communication

Impacts on Human Health

Impact

Very high confidence

Malaria: contraction and expansion,

changes in transmission season

High confidence

Increase in malnutrition

Increase in the number of people suffering

from deaths, disease and injuries from

extreme weather events

Increase in the frequency of cardio-respiratory

diseases from changes in air quality

Change in the range of infectious disease vector

Reduction of cold-related deaths

Medium confidence

Increase in the burden of diarrheal diseases