Do dd, van de dang dat ra la : P b i i sd dung ddng bp cbinh sach tien te va cbinh sich tai khoa de dinh hudng cho tbi trUdng tai chinb ei'u true lai; budc cie doanh nghiep thudc moi[r]
Trang 1PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRUING KINH TE VN NAM 2011
TAI COf CAU DAU TU' CONGJ
NHIN TRONG MOI Tllgjjp
V6l SI/ PHAT TRii
•
CUA NEN TAI CHINH QUQC^Ii
TS TRAN DU LjCH
Uy vien Uy ban Kinh te Quoc hpi
Tdi CO cau ddu tU cong trong hoi cdnh doi mdi mo hinh tdng trUdng vd tdi cdu trAc nen kinh te Id mpt trong nhUng vdn de kinh te dang ddt ra cho nhiem vu kinh te trong
ke hoach 5 ndm phdt trien kinh te-xd hpi 2011-2015 Trong bdi viet ndy, tdc gid trinh bdy 3 van de, nhin tU gidc dp mdi tUOng quan he thdng giUa ddu tU cdng vdi cdc chinh sdch khdc trong tdng the nen tdi chinh qudc gia Dd Id mdi tUvmg quan giUa: (1) Bpi chi ngdn sdch nhd nUdc vd np cong; (2) Ddu tU cong vd sU van dpng ciia thi trUdng tdi chinh; vd (3) Tdi cdu true doanh nghiep nhd nUdc (DNNN) theo hUdng sii dung nhUcong
cu de bd khuyet nhUng "khuyet tdt" ciia thi trUdng Sau cung tdc gid dUa ra nhUng gpi
y di' tdi ca cau ddu tU cdng mpt cdch hieu qud vd thdnh cong trong thdi gian sdp tdi
1 Bdi chi ngan sach nha nu'dc va nof cong
• Thiic h i e n c h i n h s a c h tai c h i n h c o n g
tich cue, nhu'ng phai co d i e u k i e n
Theo quan diem cua tdi, trong nhieu nam nda,
nUdc ta cdn pbai tbUe hien chinh sach chu dpng
bpi ehi ngan sach b i n g con dudng vay no de dau
tu phat trien ha tang ky thuat va xa hpi, thdc day
nhanh qui trinh cdng nghiep hda da't nUdc Dd la
chinh sach tai chinb cong tich cUc trong dieu kien
tich luy cua nen kinh te cdn thap, tiet kiem npi
dia chu'a dap dng nhu cau dau tU phat trien ben
vdng Khi van dung ehinh sach nay, phai kem
theo cac dieu kien rat nghiem ngat nhU:
- Pbai cd chien lupc np chinh phd va np qudc
gia rd rang:
- Nhdng dieu kien bao dam bieu qua trong diu
tU;
- Kha nang tra np b i n g ndm ei ve ddng VND lan ngoai te;
- T u i n thu nguyen t i e "phi tdn co bdi" va tinh ddng bd trong dau td;
- Cbi tieu nha nUdc t h a t sU tiet kiem;
- C P che phan bd vdn dau tU minh bach;
- Co che giam sat ddng vdn dau tU chat cbc ThUc te trong eic nam qua, bdi chi n g i n sich nha nude ehUa that sU tuan thu cac dieu kien neu tren va nhieu dieu kien k b i c nda, nen cbinh sach
"tai chinb edng tich cUc" da trd thanh n h i n td ed nguy CO gay bat dn cho nen lai chinh qudc gia Neu van tidp tuc d i u tu nbU vay thi he qui khdng chi tang rui ro cho be thdng lai cbinh, m i cdn gdp phan gay bat dn vl md (lam phat, nhap sieu) Trong nhieu nam qua, dac biet la trong nhiem
ky Qudc hpi khda 12, da lien tuc tang mu'c bdi chi
Trang 2PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRUCING KINH TE VN NAM 2011
va phat hanh trai phieu chinh phu (nhu'ng khdng
tinh vao bpi chi) de phan bd dau tU eho eie n g i n h
va dia phUOng vao cic linh vdc m i Qudc hpi eho
phep Tuy nhien, chUa cd sd d i n h gia mang tinh
dinh lupng nao ve hieu qui cua cic dd a n v i cdng
trinh da sd dung ngudn vd'n n i y Khi phan bd
ngudn vd'n dau tU, Bd Ke hoach& Dau tU ed dUa ra
tieu ebi de phan bd nhdng chda thay cd sU d i n h
gia ve ket qua thUe hien mdt each cu the Tinh
trang cac nganh va dia phUPng dUa ra q u i nhieu
dd an, trong khi dd ngudn vdn rat ban che, nen
noi nao, nginh nao "chay" thu tuc sdm tbi dupe
chap thuan va giii ngan sdm, nOi n i o cham thi
de lai Cach l i m nay dan den he qua l i pha vd
tinh du tien va tinh ddng bp ciia diu tU, tinh trang
"vdn nam" khip noi; ngan sich pbai t r i lai nhUng
dii an thi phoi sUOng phoi gid Vdi each phan bd
vdn dau td nhU bien nay, tdi ed cam tddng la
chung ta lim vao tinh trang "phdng lao phai theo
lao", vi neu ddng lai chUOng trinh bay dd an pao,
thi tien da bd ra trd t h i n h "cua dd"
Dat nddc ta cdn nhieu khd khdn, d linh vUc
nio, dia b i n n i o cung can phai dau tU Di nhien,
cd dia ban vi linh vu'c ein Uu tien nbUng pbai kem
theo cac dieu kien nha't dinh Neu nhin d giac dp
loan cue tbi d dia b i n khd khdn, viec diu tU la vi
muc tieu cbinh tri, xa bpi; cdn d nhdng dia ban ed
lpi thd nhu Vung kinh te trpng diem phia Nam
thi cung phai dau tU de nudi ngudn thu chung cho
dat nude, chd khdng ehi vi nPi dd Vi du: Uu tien
cho ndng thdn, mien ndi, bien gidi thi nen thUe
hien theo chu'Ong trinh qudc gia, cd su' hd trp cua
Trung UPng trong qui trinh thUc hien, ke e i giai
doan thiet lap dd i n , trien khai thUe hien, danh
gia ket qui, chd khdng nen k h o i n trdng cho dia
phUPng theo each p h i n cap nhu hien nay; diu tU
eho day nghe pbai tinh den "phan mem", tdc l i
su ddng bp cua viec chuan bi dpi ngu giio vien,
ddi tupng tuyen sinh, sd dung sau d i o tao, chd
khdng chi viec xiy dUng trUdng Idp; n g i n h y te
cdng vay Do dd, khdng the phan bd diu td vdi
mpt each nhin k b i dOn giin la nganh hay dia ban,
ma phii cu the den tdng du i n ; thdi diem dau tU,
each thuc hien de can ddi ngudn vdn vdi phUPng
cham; lam du an n i o phai ddt diem dUa vio sU
dung, pbai bio dam tinh ddng bd va linb lan toa eua tdng du i n Can pbai cd co che trach nhiem
ve dau tU kem hieu qua
• Vay npf c h i n h phii d e n ngvidng nao la an
toan?
Trong CO ciu no cdng (theo khai niem np cdng
da dupc dinh nghia trong Luat quan ly np cdng) eua nUdc ta hien nay, chu yeu la no dai ban, do vay nen chUa cd i p life ldn ve k h i nang tra np Vi
du nam 2011 bd' tri 85 ngan ty de tra np so vdi
590 ngan ty thu ngan sach (ty le g i n 15%), tbi van an loan Tuy nhien, neu phan thu cdn lai sau khi tra np va chi thudng xuyen ngay cang giam
va tiep can den 0 tbi viec vay np da den ngUdng mat an loan Ddi vdi mot nen tai cbinh cdng, viee bpi chi ngan sach nha nUd'c lien tue bat ngudn td diu tu cdng (trong thdi gian 10 nam) nhUng khdng tao ra ddpc bieu qui eua mpt nen kinh te ed kha nang tao ra gia tri cao ho'n (tinh tUPng ddi), the bien sU thang du cho "tai s i n xuat md rpng" (can
cd mde chenh lech gida ngudn thu va chi tbudng xuyen + tra np den ban), tbi nguy cP mat an loan thUc sU xiy ra Cu the: neu ndm 2001, N h i nUdc vay np dUdi nhieu hinh thdc dd thUe bien dau tU
v i do vay bat diu xuit hien bpi chi O' thdi diem
n i y chUa cd thang dU gida ngudn thu va ebi tbudng xuyen thi vio thdi diem nam 2010, pbai
cd thang dU n g i n sach ebo dau tU sau kbi ngudn thu da bd d i p ebi thudng xuyen va tra no den ban Vdi each tinh nbU vay, can phan tich va danh gia tinh hinh vay np trong 10 nam qua va xiy dung chien lupc t i i cbinh cdng trong 10 nam tdi, khi dd mdi ed eP sd danh gii ve tinh an toan Do
dd, neu khong cd du b i o xa d tam qudc gia cung nhu d DNNN thi nguy cP mat an loan xua't hicn,
va ed the dan den khdng the chdng dd kip Tinh trang n i y dupc gpi la "vd np"
2 Moi quan he giu'a dau tu'cong va sU van dpng cua thj tru'dng tai chinh
Trong giai doan 2001-2005, nen kinh to VN phue bdi sau t i c ddng cua eude khung hoing tai ehinh khu vdc, tdc dp tang GDP binh quan 7,5%/
nam 0' giai doan n i y , tdng dU np tin dung eua be thd'ng ngan bang thUOng mai (NHTM) tang trung binh 23%'-247c/nam; bdi ebi ngan sach dddi 5%:
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Trang 3PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRUONG KINH T E V N N A M 2011
•5^
GDP; tdng dau tU xa bdi'GDP khoang 38%
Tinh binh dien ra tUOng ddi binh thudng trong nam 2006 (GDP tang 8.3%; du np tin dung tang
24%; bpi chl ngan sach 5% GDP ) Td nam 2007,
bien tUpng b i t thudng da xay ra:
- Du np tin dung cua he thdng NHTM tang dot bien so vdi tdc dp tdng GDP (nam 2007: GDP tang
8,6%; du np tin dung tang 53,4%-; nam 2008: GDP
tang 6,4%, du np tin dung tang 21 ,&%\ nam 2009:
GDP tang 5,3 %, du np tin dung tang 37,3%)
- Bdi ehi ngan saeh g i n 77r.GDP
- Tdng diu tu xa bpi dat mde 42% GDP
Tai sao ed hien tUpng tren? Binh tbudng bay
bat tbudng? Nguyen nhan td diu? Qua quan sat
thu'c tien tinh binh, tdi cd 3 nhan xet ve nguyen
nhan sau day:
-I- Thu nhdt, bong bdng cua tbi tru'dng chu'ng
khoan (TTCK) va tbi tru'dng bat dpng san
(TTBDS) td cudi ndm 2006 den cudi nam 2007 da
tao dot bie'n thi tru'dng tin dung va nd da binh
tbanh lu'png t i i s i n i o so vdi nen kinh te thu'c (sd
chenh lech gida tai s i n tai chinb vdi tai s i n thUe)
ma lam phat trong 2 ndm 2007-2008 da san b i n g
khoang chenh lech dd b i n g mpt mat bang gii
mdi
Su tang tin dung cac nam dd khdng tao ra su'
tang tai san thUe d i n g ke cua nen kinh te ma cbi
bieu bien d GDP danh nghia Mat khac, tang
nhap sieu dot bien trong 3 nam qua edng lim tdng
tdng cung tien (quan be h i n g - tien), nhUng do
nen kinh te gia edng, ty trpng gia tri gia tang
trong CO eau gia tri b i n g hda tha'p nen dd tang
khdi lupng tien te nhUng khdng lam tdng GDP
(U'dc khoang 70%-80% gia tri nhap sieu vat tU,
nguyen lieu, may mde thiet bi ehi chuyen hda vao
gii tri xuat khau ehu khdng lam tang trUe tiep
GDP)
+ ThU hai, trong 3 ndm qua 2008-2010, TTCK
chu yeu boat dpng p tbi trUdng thd cap, mpi ngudn
von boat dpng cua bau bet eie doanh nghiep ddu
dua vao be thdng NHTM Cbinh trong giai doan
nay la thdi ky mat can dd'i cung - ciu "dich vu tin
dung ngan bang" nen cung la giai doan tao ra
"manh dat mau md" cho cae NHTM ed p h i n nho
ra ddi boat dpng dua tranh lam bung nd tin dung
va nghiem trpng hon la g i y rdi thj tru'dng tin dung; lam cho chinb sach tien le mat phuOng hu'dng, p h i i lien tuc ddi phd n g i n ban, nguy cp bat dn tang cao Trong bdi c i n h dd cpng them tie dpng cua cudc khung h o i n g tai cbinh v i suy thoii kinh te t o i n cau dan den sU mat niem tin cua n h i dau tu nen ca chdng khoan vdn l i n chdng khoan
np tren TTCK deu be t i c NHTM "mpt minh mpt cho" Lpi nhuan cua NHTM tdng nhuiig rui ro cua
ea he thdng va yeu to b i t dn kinh te vi md khong giam m i ehi chuyen hda hinh thdc ma thdi
+ ThU ba, tinh trang bdi ebi n g i n sich trien
mien ngiy cing ldn nhd "chiec thdng khdng diy"; dau tu cdng thieu ddng bp va khdng tuan thu nguyen t i e ehi phi eO hdi da gdp phan tang nhanh
he sd ICOR Trong 2 nam 2009-2010, de thdc day tdng GDP, khu vu'c d i u tu edng bao gdm diu to cua ngan sach nha nu'dc va DNNN tdng nhanh, thu but mpt khdi lUpng tin dung k b i ldn; trong
dd mpt p h i n bpi ehi ngan sach dUa vio tin dung
va p h i t banh Ngay c i t r i i phieu eua Cbinh phu cung dda ehu ye'u vao NHTM, phan buy dpng triic tiep td cdng chung chiem ty trpng nhd Nhin chung, td mpi tbanh phan kinh te lan ngin saeh nha nudc deu dua chu yeu vao be thd'ng NHTM Mpt khdi lupng tien k h i ldn dua vio khu vUc nay, nhUng do tien dp d i u tU keo dai, thieu ddng bp nen khdng tao ra khdi lupng tai s i n tdOng dng, keo cham vdng quay cua ddng tien
Ba nguyen n h a n tren cd the giai thich hien tupng tang tin dung b i t tbudng trong 3 nam qua
va sU m a t c i n ddi nghiem trpng co ciu cua thi tru'dng tai ehinh Di nhien, nguyen n h i n siu xa bat ngudn td cau true cda nen kinh te' va cbinh sach tai ehinh - tien te, dae biet la chinb sich tai khoa cd i n h hUdng rat manh den ei'u true nay, song chdng ta van ehUa danh gia mot eich diy du
Do dd, van de dang dat ra la : P b i i sd dung ddng
bp cbinh sach tien te va cbinh sich tai khoa de dinh hudng cho tbi trUdng tai chinb ei'u true lai; budc cie doanh nghiep thudc moi tbanh phan kinh
te pbai tai co eau tai chinb doanh nghiep; phai giam "nhiet "he thdng NHTM trong con Idc tang buy dpng vd'n, tang tin dung; phat huy chdc nang buy ddng vd'n trUe tiep cua TTCK
Trang 4PHAT TRIEN & TANG TRL/O'NG KINH TE VN NAM 2011
3 Tai cau true life lUdng DNNN theo hUdng suf
dung nhu^cong cu de bo khuyet nhu'ng "khuyet
tat" cua thj tru'dng
V i n de cai each D N N N e h i n h la "tai ca'u t r u e "
lUc luong nay de lam td't vai trd t h a m gia dieu t i e t
thi trUdng, cung c i p t d t hon cac loai " b a n g hoa va
dich vu cdng epng" phuc vu muc t i e u p h a t t r i e n
ben vdng;
Neu ddng t r e n quan d i e m n a y do p h a n tich lUc
lupng DNNN h i e n hdu t b i d a n g t d n t a i 3 v i n de
sau day: (i) Su n h a p n b i n g gida d o a n h n g h i e p
kinh doanh vi muc tieu lpi n h u a n ( b i n h t h d c edng
lyi vdi dinh ehe cdng phi lpi n h u a n ; (ii) H a u b e t
cac n g a n h ed D N N N deu k h d n g " d a n d i t " dupe tbi
IrUOng, neu bd eO cbc dpc q u y e n Dieu n a y cho
Ihay vice quan tri k e m bieu q u i ; va (iii) Hai n h d m
linh vUc can sU can t h i e p cua lUc lUpng k m h t e
n h a nude la: cung cap h a n g b o a - dich vu c d n g
epng va cac n g a n h k i n h te co h i e u q u i s i n h Idi
t h a p nhUng c i n t h i e t eho q u i t r i n h C N I I (nbU: co
khi cbc t a o , edng n g h i e p phu t r p , d a u tU eho
TTBDS so cap, nghien edu, d n g d u n g va p h a t t r i e n
cdng n g h i e p edng n g h e e a o ) nbUng dUdng nbU
Nha nude lai "nbudng" cho thi trUdng N h i nUde
dau to p h a t t r i e n linb vUe n a o p h a i t h e hicn quyet
Uim chinh tri cda N h a nUdc, chd k h d n g p b i i de
mac DNNN can n b a c h i e u qua t a i c b i n h don
thuan
Tai cau true Idc lu'png D N N N de lUc lupng n a y
thu'c su' l i sue m a n h vat c h i t , c d n g vdi t h e che
kinh tc trd t b a n h edng eu dieu t i e t tbi trUdng cd
hieu qua Day la mdt ndi dung quan t r p n g , k h d n g
chl n h a m n a n g eao bieu q u i q u a n ly n h a nude ve
kinh tc ma cdn gan k e t dupe v a n dc k i n h t e vdi
lien bp v i edng b i n g xa hpi Do vay can cd m d t
dao luat dc chd dinh v a n de n e u t r e n
Trong dieu kien cua VN, can xay d u n g mpt be
tbdng quan diem d d n g bd ve mdl n e n t a i c b i n h
quoc gia dUa t r e n c b i n h sach "lai c h i n b cdng tich
cue"; sd dung cac cdng eu cua c b i n h sach t i i k h o a ,
bpi ehi chu ddng de xay d u n g k e t c i u b a t i n g va
thuc day t a n g tru'dng k i n h t e : s o n g c b i n h s a c h
tren la "con dao hai ludi', ndu co ehe q u a n tri cdng
\ c u k e m se ed t a c d u n g ngu'Oc lai
De l a i eo eau d i u t u cdng, t r u d c b e t p h a i ddi
mdi can b a n phUo'ng thu'c q u a n tri t a i c h i n b cdng:
Co cau td chdc bp m a y h a n h c h i n h n h i nude;
p h u o n g t h d c p h i n bd d a u td; co cho g i a m s a t v i
d a n h g i i h i e u q u i ; q u a n d i e m ve vi I n , \ a i trd, chdc n a n g cua DNNN C a n d a t van de l a i cP cau
d a u tu' c d n g t r o n g moi q u a n he be t h d n g de cd budc di cu t h e M p t t r o n g nbu'ng uu l i e n l i :
- Sua ddi L u a t n g a n s a c h n h a nu'dc t h e o hu'dng
t i c h b i e t 2 loai n g a n s a c h : n g i n s a c h qudc gia va
n g a n sach dia phu'Ong
- N h a nude thd'ng n h a t ve t h e cbc t a i e h i n h cdng, cdn t h i e t l a p v i thUe tbi n g i n s i c h t h i giao quyen tU ehu cho c b i n h quyen dia phu'Ong ddi vdi
n g a n sach dia phUPng ( H D N D quyet d i n h i ;
- N g a n s a c h qudc gia do Qudc hpi quyet dinh (bao gdm p h i n t r p e i p cho dia phuong);
- Tien tdi vice x i y du'ng L u a t n g a n sach h a n g
n a m t h e o quy t r i n h xay d u n g lu al cua Qudc hdi:
m a n g t i n h t h d n g le qudc t c ; b i o d a m su' giam s a t cua Qudc hpi ddi vdi n g i n sach qudc gia va Hpi
d d n g n h i n d a n ddi vdi n g a n sach dia phu'OngB TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1 Tong cue thdng ke (2010) Nien giam thdng ke
2009
2 Chinh phu (10/2010) Bao cao ke hoach kmh te-xa hdi nam 2010 va phudng hudng nhiem vu nam 2011 bao
cao tai ky hpp thu 8 Quoc hpi
3 Bp Ke hoach & Dau tu (2010) Bao cao ve phan cap dau tu
4 Vien Nghien cdu Quan ly kinh te TW (2009) Bao cao tai cau true kinh te
5 Le Xuan NghTa (2010) bai viet tai hpi thao "On dinh kinh te vT mo, duy tri tang trudng " tai TP.HCM, ngay 21-22/9/2010
6 Tran Du Lich (10/2010) Vuot qua thach thuc hudng den muc tieu phat tnen dai han tham luan tai ky hpp thu
8 Quoc hoi
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