Identifying factors affecting the early retirement decisions of employees meaning for vietnam to reduce the potential labour shortages due to the population ageing

587 DISCUSSIONS AND REVIEWS Identifying factors affecting the early retirement decisions of employees: Meaning for Vietnam to reduce the potential labour shortages due to the population

587

DISCUSSIONS AND REVIEWS Identifying factors affecting the early retirement decisions

of employees: Meaning for Vietnam to reduce the potential labour shortages due to the population ageing

Nguyen Thi Thu Ha*

Abstract: As the proportion of the elderly population (those aged 60 and over) keeps

increasing quickly in most countries in the world, issues related to older people’s employment behavior have drawn a great deal of public attention The ageing workforce will result in the labor shortage and place a huge burden on the public pension system in the near future Therefore, governments are encouraging older workers to continue working later in life, and to delay their retirement to offset the dependence on the support

of younger workers In the attention to delay the retirement age it is interesting and important to identify what factors affect employees’ decisions to early retire This paper aims to identify factors affecting employee’s decisions to early retire by critical reviewing relevant literatures, which provides administrators and researchers with a specific and deeper view of early retirement intentions of older workers Then this paper will give recommendations for enabling extended their working lives as well as for reducing the

potential labor shortfall for Vietnam in the near future when the society becomes older

Keywords: Affecting; factors; older workers; retirement decisions; the ageing workforce

Received: 11 th April 2016; Revised: 27 th September 2016; Accepted: 10 th October 2016

1 Introduction *

The population of world is ageing, and, by

world standards, the population can already be

described as old in most countries, both

developed and developing countries The

average age of people in the workforce is

increasing, with people also generally living

longer The United Nations (2010) indicates

that the proportion of the elderly people has

been rising globally In 2010, the proportion of

people aged 60 and over was 11.0 percent of

the world’s population, and is expected to

double to 21.8 percent of total population by

*

The University of Danang, University of Economics,

Vietnam; email: nguyenthithuhaktdn@gmail.com

2050 Like other countries, the population

ageing process in Vietnam is rapid and the percentage of the elderly in the population is increasing, meaning that the percentage of working - age population in the Vietnam labor force will decrease More specific, according to Vietnam General Statistics Office (2011), Vietnam has entered the so-called “ageing phase” since 2011 The increasing rate of ageing population in Vietnam is very fast and will potentially be higher than that in developed countries Western countries took a hundred years to complete the demographic transition, Thailand and Japan-the two countries having been considered as the fastest ageing in the region took 22 years and 26 years

respectively to transit from an “ageing” to an

“aged” phase, while Vietnam only spent 20

years to finish (United Nations Population

Fund [UNFPA] 2011) In addition, the

proportion of the elderly at the age of 60-plus

in Vietnam was 8.69 % in 2009, increases

rapidly to 11.78 % in 2019 and will triple to

24.8 by 2049 that is much higher than the

world ageing figure (21% in 2050) In line with

the rapid increase in the ratio of ageing

population, the ratios of young people under 15

and of working age population decreased after

a period of rapid growth in Vietnam in the past

decade The reason for this phenomenon stems

from many causes, with the leading ones being

a sharp drop in the total fertility rate (TFR)

from 2.33 in 1999 to 2.10 children per woman

in 2015, and an increase in life expectancy of

people in Vietnam from 72.2 years old in 2005

to 73 years in 2011 and 74 in 2015 Given the

current average life expectancy and the

continuing upward trend in the coming years, it

is obvious that the average life expectancy in

our country is much higher than the overall

average of developing countries which stands

at around 68 (Statistical Handbook of

Vietnam)

Along with the rapid population ageing

process in Vietnam, the percentage of working

- age population in the labor force also increase

from 50.49% in 1979 to 58.38% in 1999 and to

65.86% in 2009 However, the proportion of

working-age population in Vietnam is

estimated to increase to reach the peak of 71%

in 2020, but then this proportion will start

declining, which will lead to the shortage of

labour in the Vietnam labor market in coming

years

Despite the rapid ageing population, older

workers find it harder to get and keep a job

They are kept out of the workforce for longer,

and suffer from the effects of ageism (Encel et

al 2004) In addition, most of older workers in

Vietnam are retiring early-before the traditional

age of retirement The average age of retirement from full-time work in Vietnam was 54.2 years in 2012 (compared to 57.5 years for the normal retirement age) (Vietnam Social Insurance 2012) Combined with decreasing average hours worked caused mainly by the increase in part-time work compared with full-time work, and the continuing trend for early retirement, this decline means that the future pool of skilled labor is likely to be insufficient and the huge increase in the number of retirees due to early retirement will become a burden to society, leads to the labor shortages (The Ministry of Labor- Invalids and Social Affairs 2014) Hence, in order to reduce the potential labor shortfall and the burden of government pension funds; there is a need to understand what factors affect employees’ decisions to

retire

This paper aims to identify factors affecting the retirement decisions of employees by critical reviewing relevant literatures, which provide administrators and researchers with a better view of older worker’s retirement intentions, and then gives recommendations for enabling extended working lives as well as for

reducing the potential labor shortfall for

Vietnam in the near future when the society

becomes older

2 Factors affecting the retirement decision

The reasons for retiring are influenced by a number of factors More specifically, Patrickson and Clarke (2001) argued there are three main factors that contribute to older workers’ decisions about retirement, including health, financial circumstances and employment opportunities However, Wolcott (1998) suggested the main reasons for retiring were family, health, redundancy/employment, partner considerations, and wanting to pursue different activities Additionally, Gustman and Steinmeier (1994) found pension-plan

incentives, health status, job difficulty, and an

interaction with the spouse’s choice of

retirement were the most important factors in

the retirement decision Therefore, in order to

understand this paper clearly, the researcher

collects and divides factors affecting

individual’s retirement decisions into two

distinct levels, namely micro level-individual

retirement decisions and macro level-the

impact of policy and socio-economic trends on

retirement decisions

2.1 Micro level: Individual retirement decisions

The existing literature on retirement posits

that there are a number of factors influencing

older workers’ retirement decisions Among

these factors, finance and health appear to be

the biggest influences, affecting an individual’s

decision to retire However, both these factors

do not show a straight forward and

unambiguous impact on retirement Individuals

will respond to different financial and health-

related circumstances in different ways,

depending on how these considerations interact

with other factors Additionally, labor market

experience, retirement behavior, redundancy,

family and households structures are other

main factors influencing individuals’

retirement decisions that mentioned in a

number of related studies

The first important factor concerning the

retirement decision is that of the individual’s

financial circumstances An individual’s

financial situation includes issues of savings,

both personal and superannuation, housing

ownership, other investments, dependence of

others (children, elderly parents, and sick

relatives), expected income stream from

combined pension and superannuation, and

adequacy of health insurance If the

individual’s finance is very healthy, the

decision to retire may be possible at any age or

stage In contrast, if the individual’s finance is

very unhealthy, the retirement decision may not be realistic at a particular point in time

As society becomes older, one effect of longer life expectancy is that people commonly having children later in life, and hence, they may still be financially responsible for children

at the retirement age In addition, these people may have parents that are still alive, thus their parents health care costs are likely to be greater and to go on for longer In other words, the older Baby Boomers are already becoming financially sandwiched in their need to provide for two other generations (O’Neill 1998: 178) These two financial imperatives and living longer due to healthier lifestyles and improvements in medicine may push employees to continue working or attempt to return to the workforce Moreover, government-funded social service payments will probably dwindle and individuals will need far more to financially fend for themselves, suggests that some older people will be forced to continue working because they will be unable to live on their accumulated savings, superannuation and pension Evidence from the United State supports this possibility,

as that country’s economic crisis recently resulted in some older workers not being able

to retire, and some retirees returning to work, because of their reduced retirement savings and investments (Clement 2004)

Furthermore, a research was conducted by Chan and Stevens (2008) indicated that the inheritance affects old workers’ retirement decision More specific, the receipt of large inheritance sums encourages early retirement (Chan et al 2008) Furthermore, the influence

is more pronounced if the inheritance is unexpected - suggesting that it is wealth shocks rather than wealth per se which has the greatest influence on retirement (Brown et al 2010)

In contrast, other research suggests that financial considerations were not the most important motivator in the decision to retire

Leonard (1999) found that many of older

workers remain stayed on the job not because

of financial needs, but because their work

colleagues had become like family to them,

and “their pride and self-esteem are also linked

to the notion that they are making a

contribution to society” (Leonard 1999: 28)

Similarly, Gardyn (2000) argued money was

not the main motivator for older workers

continuing to work, instead, the main

motivators were found to be the desire to keep

active and to maintain social interaction with

others and to feel productive

The second important factor concerning the

retirement decision of older people is their

health Researchers are virtually unanimous on

the notion that ill-health leads to earlier

retirement For example, in a study for the

Department for Work and Pensions (DWP),

Humphrey et al (2003) surveyed 2800 people

aged 50-69 A half of those retired answered

that the reason of early retirement is ill-health

Sheen (1999) reported the major reason for

retiring is ill-health or injury (37 percent of

males and 19 percent of females), and

retrenchment (15 and 11 percent, respectively),

but argued ill-health may be a cover for stress,

being under-valued or negative work

environments (Sheen 1999: 6) Similarly,

Parnes and Sommers (1994) argued one of the

key impacts of continuing to work was

individual good health Wolcott (1998) found

the main reasons for retiring at any age were

family, health, redundancy, partner

considerations, and other reasons, such as

wanting to pursue different activities From

such findings, it seems clear that health is a

significant influence on retirement decisions;

however, its impact is felt through interaction

with other factors (Parnes et al 1994)

Another important health factor is the

health of worker’s partner Wolcott (1998)

found if their partner is in poor health, men will

continue to work to provide greater financial

resources, while women are more likely to have to retire early or leave the workforce, in order to directly care for their partner Moreover, Arskey et al.’s (2005) study showed that caring responsibilities curtails the employment options of people approaching retirement Many people have to give up their work or are forced to retire to care their partner even if the desire and financial need to continue working remains Once their care responsibilities came to an end, it is difficult for older people to return to work

Furthermore, ill-health does not influence upon the retirement decisions of all social groups Humphrey et al (2003) showed that male and people who less educated usually early retired due to ill-health Paradoxically, of those still in work, expectations of early retirement were greater among those with high-skilled level, professional or managerial occupations, and married people Thus, lower-skilled workers were more likely to retire later for financial reasons and more likely to be forced to retire early because of ill-health

In general, the impact of health is widely- recognised, however, the issue is that health factors are usually self-reported, leading not to

be entirely trustworthy People who enjoy work tend to downplay health conditions, while people who are keen to retire may exaggerate health conditions Thus, it is necessary to focus on related-factors when evaluating the impact of health on retirement decisions (Dwyer et al 1999)

The third factor affecting the older people’s decision to retire is labor market experience The impact of finance and health on retirement decisions is mitigated by individuals’ experience of the labor market during their working life Those with higher earnings or spent the most time in work will have better pensions coverage, and thus more options from

a financial perspective to consider early retirement Although there is no clear evidence

on average retirement ages for different income

groups, Arkani and Gough (2007) showed that

men and women from black Caribbean origins

and men from Pakistani origins tend to retire

later that are due to lower incomes and less

time spent in employment

In addition, in a study of retirement

behavior of British civil servants, Mein et al

(2000) found that those in managerial and

professional positions were far more likely to

retire early than those in clerical and support

positions The longer they had been civil

servants-accruing generous pension

entitlements-the more likely they were to retire

early However, these findings have been

partly contradicted by Blekesaune et al ’s

(2008) quantitative study on factors affecting

retirement They argued that people in

professional and managerial positions are

actually more likely to retire later than

lower-skilled workers One of their main Blekesaune

et al ’s findings is that later entry into the labor

market encourages working later into life This

may be related to the need to work for longer

to accrue pension entitlement While generous

provision enables early retirement, the overall

incentive structure encourages staying in

employment

Moreover, Blekesaune et al.’s (2008) main

explanation is that the children of professional

and managerial workers are more likely to join

the labour market at a later age due to staying

longer in full-time education, and to work for

longer due to a greater work ethic and the

satisfaction derived from the status associated

with their employment Blekesaune et al.’s

findings may support other research that

suggests job conditions are a major influence

on retirement decisions Siegrist et al ’s (2007)

comparative study of ten European countries

found that poor quality of work (measured on

both an effort/reward ratio and a

demand/control ratio) was significantly

associated with early retirement They argue

therefore that quality of work belongs alongside health and finance as the main determinants of retirement decisions Inevitably, lower-paid and lower-status jobs also tend to be poorer quality jobs in this regard

Furthermore, Meadows (2003) has argued that one of the main reasons for early retirement is redundancy As such, “part of the drift towards early retirement comes through unemployed older people who give up trying to find work”-in other words, people decide to retire early because of the difficulty of finding new employment in later life Health and poor job quality (alongside a good pension) are reasons for older employees taking voluntary redundancy

The retirement decisions of self-employed people have received a lot of attention On average, the self-employed retire later than employees (Parker et al 2007) Meadows (2003) has suggested this may be because self-employment is intrinsically more enjoyable and rewarding than employment In Humphrey

et al ’s (2003) study, cited above, 1 in 7 of those surveyed was self-employed For those

also aged above state pension age, this

increased to 1 in 3 They reported that self-employment better suited the transition to retirement Sainsbury et al (2006) reported that self employment allowed people to “wind down” before full retirement

However, only 56 percent of those surveyed by Humphrey et al (2003) had a private pension (compared to 72 per cent of employees), suggesting that the financial compulsion to continue working was also greater for the self-employed This is supported

by Sainsbury et al (2006), who found that most self-employed people, especially women, have no private pension coverage Even those that do have coverage only contribute small amounts, and would be prepared to cease contributions if their day-to-day financial

circumstances worsened Overall, Sainsbury et

al ’s qualitative study of 40 self-employed

people found no clear causality regarding

retirement Those who intended to retire early

were either financially secure, or fed up with

the work Those intending to work later were

either continuing through financial necessity,

or derived satisfaction from the work It would

be logical to assume that those earning the least

would enjoy their work less

With regards to family and households

structures, this factor impacts on retirement

decisions in a number of ways Some studies

report that the reason that women are more

likely to retire above state pension age is that

female state pension age is lower than male

state pension age, and couples often make joint

decisions to retire at the same time This is

something also found by Mock and Cornelius

(2007) Mock and Cornelius (2007) argued that

the marriage encourages retirement planning,

but also that couples more satisfied with their

relationship also tend to plan their retirements

together

Interestingly, Department for Education

and Skills in the United Kingdom (DfES)

(2000) research has found that single people

tend to retire later The desire to maintain

social relations through employment may be

more important to single people rather than

couples Blekesaune at al.’s (2008) research

also indicates that family may affect labor

market More specific, they argue that the later

in life that one enters into a permanent

relationship and become a parent, the later you

will work

2.2 Macro level: impact of policy and

socio-economic trends

The previous part considered the impact of

a range of individual circumstances and

characteristics on retirement decisions The

following part considers the impact of three

important trends: an ageing society, the pensions system, and economic change

Even though in the postwar period life expectancy has increased significantly, retirement ages have not increased in line with

this change While increased longevity surely changes the context of retirement decisions, it

does not have a determining impact This may

be due to the fact that healthy life expectancy

has not increased at the same rate as life

expectancy (Mayhew 2010) Moreover, it

could be that an ageing society has contributed

to earlier retirement by legitimizing the idea of

a sustained period of leisure in later life As Barr (2010: 6) mentioned, “the purpose of

retirement has changed-it no longer exists

primarily to clear dead wood out of the labor

force, but to provide a period of leisure in later life, as part of a civilized society”

It may be that we need to consider also

perceptions of life expectancy as well as life

expectancy itself People may be living longer,

but their retirement decisions are affected by

how long they expect to live? Research by

Salinge and Henkens (2010), based on a study

of retirement behavior in the Netherlands over

the last decade, shows that life expectancy

influences retirement decisions In other words,

the longer people expect to live, the later they will retire; if people do not expect to live for a long time, they will retire earlier

With regards to pensions system, obviously, the state pension is not accessible

until state pension age, but it is difficult to say

that it acts as an incentive to retire early In

fact, the capacity of individuals to “defer”

receipt of the state pension means that this

aspect of the system provides an incentive to retire later Moreover, Humphrey et al (2003) have noted that women work less than men

across all age groups In fact, women are compelled to retire earlier than men due to the

lower female state pension age and the

discrimination against women in some

countries Humphrey et al (2003) also

mentioned that people will not be able to

resolve this conundrum until the male and

female state pension ages are equalized In

addition, according to Humphrey et al (2003),

it is difficult to fully determine the impact of

the pensions system on average retirement

ages

As for economic change, various

researchers on retirement have noted the

impact of industrial change on average

retirement ages The postwar period has seen

the onset of the decline of manufacturing in

favor of the services sector While this process

is not directly related to individual decisions

about retirement, it has seemingly shaped the

tendency to withdraw from the labor market

before state pension age in recent decades,

particularly for men

Meadows (2003) has identified

technological and organizational shocks as

“push” factors towards early retirement in the

United Kingdom, and as such, and relates these

to rapid economic change from the 1980s

onwards Duval (2003) produced similar

findings in his OECD-wide study He found

the declining productivity of low-skilled older

workers, given manufacturing decline,

operated as “push” factor, but also that

increasingly low wages for the affected

workers operated as a “pull” factor towards

early retirement

In a similar study specifically on the United

State labor market, Coile and Levine (2009)

have argued that economic downturns create

conditions for early retirement, mainly because

labor market conditions for lower-skilled

workers become unfavorable Blundell and

Turner (1999) have argued that the early

retirement of a generation of older workers in

the 1980s and 1990s was in fact precipitated by

the recessions in those decades Firms

dispensed with older workers with obsolete

skills, and they found it impossible to rejoin the

labor market even as the economy recovered

Many commentators have suggested that age discrimination is one of the main reasons that people withdraw from the labor market earlier than expected However, there are few studies that demonstrate that age discrimination

has increased in the postwar period, therefore

explaining declining retirement ages In fact, interest in age discrimination, and legal efforts

to combat it, have increased in the last two decades, as the average retirement age has seemingly started to rise However, the DfES (2000a) study argues that age discrimination has been bound up with industrial decline Rather than make people redundant, firms preferred to insist upon early retirement for older workers This is a discriminatory practice, but it results from economic change rather than a cultural ageism in the labor

market

As regarding to Vietnam, according to The Ministry of Labor - Invalids and Social Affairs (2014), the quality of Vietnam’s employees is low, especially for older workers, therefore it is difficult to get and keep a good job Consequence, these older employees keep out

of the workforce for longer and find it harder to get a job That is one of main reasons they decide to retire early In addition, the survey was conducted by the Centre for Consultancy and Transfer of Occupational Safety Health and Environmental Protection Technology in the South of Vietnam indicated that because of poor working conditions, Vietnamese employees faced to health problems such as ill-health, illness and injury Health problems lead

to early retirement (Vietnam News 2012) Another reason of deciding early retirement of older workers is that because of having a low wage, these employees decide on retire early in order to spend more time for relax after the working period or for their family such as looking after their grandchildren, helping their

children or taking care their father and

mother… (Doãn Tâm Long et al 2014) More

important, the pensions system and

government policies is the main reason of early

retiring of Vietnamese workers More

specially, the process of rapid population aging

poses major challenges for social welfare

programs and puts a great deal of pressure on

the working age population in Vietnam

According to Vietnam Social Insurance, rising

life expectancy leads to a surge in the number

of elderly in the near future, which would

highly likely cause the pension fund to burst,

adversely affect the economic development of

our country The International Labor

Organization (ILO) recently said that

Vietnam’s pension fund will start to be in

deficit in 2024, depleted by 2027 The latest

figures of the Vietnam’s Social Security Fund

also prove ILO’s warnings valid From 2007 to

2013, the pension fund must pay 3,200 more

new retirees every year In 2012, the number of

beneficiaries entitled to pension increased by

1.78 times and pension payout increased by

4.11 times compared to 2007 (United Nations

Population Fund (UNFPA) 2011) Vietnam’s

Social Security Fund report also pointed out

that: "In the coming years, the higher the

number of retirees enjoying the social security

fund, the pension expenses will increase and

the fund will be in deficit in the foreseeable

future From 2024 onward, to ensure the

adequate pension expenses and death benefit,

there is a need to incorporate budget surplus

into its revenues" (Vietnam Social Insurance

2015) Like ILO, Vietnam’s Social Security

Fund also forecast that its imbalance will start

experiencing imbalance in 2024, and depletion

in 2037 The future depletion of the social

security fund will raise the government budget

deficit, negatively affecting Vietnam’s

economic development As a result, increasing

the retirement age in next years or encouraging

employees working in the labor market for a

longer time will be the best choice of

government for coping with the future depletion of the social security fund

3 Recommendations for Vietnam to reduce the potential labor shortage due to the rapid population ageing

The biggest challenges of the government

of Vietnam is how to solve the pensions fund deficit and provide the social security for the growing elderly segment of the population According to Vietnam Social Insurance and Social Issues Commission of the National Assembly (2015), the best recommendation for Vietnam in this situation is how to extend the working life of older workers This implies that

by extending the working life of older workers, they can support themselves and reduce the burden of dependent elderly population

Even if the desire and capacity to remain in work of older workers exists, in practice extending their working lives depend on the availability of appropriate jobs, ensuring that the jobs undertaken by older workers are appropriate to their life-stage However, there remain difficult questions around both employer practices and the financial and legal architecture of employment decisions Moreover, based on the situation of Vietnam social insurance fund and some reasons of early retirement decision of older workers, the following recommendations are suggested for Vietnam that enable extended working lives in

a sustainable way:

- Firstly, more resources should be committed the preventative healthcare In addition, more research on the relationship between ill-health and job quality is required to enable more effective healthcare interventions

- Secondly, the job quality should be a

higher priority for employment policy, particularly for older workers This may

require more attention to how expectations of

job quality change over the life course

- In addition, the default retirement age is

discriminatory and should be abolished While

firms must be able to manage their workforces,

government should focus instead on enabling

employers to offer downshifting options,

especially to low-skilled workers

- People should be able to draw down

pension entitlements in more flexible ways, to

enable gradual retirement Government should

consider part payments of state pensions, and

encourage the private sector to cooperate

- Moreover, more effort is required to

reduce complexity in the pensions system, and

to increase the provision of advice and

information, to enable people to plan ahead

more effectively for retirement

- Higher levels of education enhance

individuals’ labor market options in later life

Lifelong learning should be encouraged, to

enable people to acquire multiple, transferable

skills in the labor market For older people, in

particular, skills development needs to be

shaped by the actual jobs available, to enable

sustainable returns to employment for those

affected by economic change

- People with informal caring

responsibilities in households require greater

support from employers and government to

remain in work

- Last but not least, government should

encourage the self-employment of older people

because self-employment may enable people to

work more flexibly in later life

4 Conclusions

The ageing workforce has created a number

of issues, one of which is the increased interest

in and importance of the retirement of older

workers, resulting in labor shortages and huge

pension systems in the near future In fact,

governments are encouraging older workers to continue working later in life, and to delay their retirement to offset the dependence on the support of (the fewer) younger workers as well

as reduce the potential labor shortfall However, it is not easy to identify exactly what factors influence older workers’ decisions to retire This paper tries to identify factors affecting older people’s retirement intentions The results of this research have useful implications for managers and public administrators Furthermore, these findings suggest administrators need to consider both

the influences of personal circumstances and

individual characteristics on retirement decisions as well as the aggregate impact of three important macro factors: an ageing

society, the pensions system, and economic

change in order to encourage older workers to

continue working, and then helps reduce the

burden of government pension funds and the

potential labor shortfall in the near future when

the society becomes older

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“Shunning retirement: Work experience of men in

their seventies and early eighties” Journal of

Gerontology: Social Sciences 49: 117-124

Parker, Simon C and Rougier, Jonathan C 2007

“The retirement behavior of the self-employed in

Britain” Applied Economics 39 (6): 697-713

Patrickson, Margaret and Clarke, Marilyn 2001

Voluntary redundancy: Its role in stimulating early retirement Auckland: ANZAM, pp 7

Patrickson, Margaret and Ranzijn, Rob 2004

“Bounded choices in work and retirement in

Australia” Employee Relations 26: 422-432