Collective risk adaptation to saline intrusion a case in the vietnamese mekong delta

This dissertation explores saline water intrusion status, its trend and its impact on the livelihoods of coastal farmers in order to address issues of forms and roles of collective risk

COLLECTIVE RISK ADAPTATION TO SALINE INTRUSION: A CASE IN

THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA

Dissertation

VAN HUYNH THANH PHAM

1631621001

GRADUATE PROGRAM ANDALAS UNIVERSITY

2020

COLLECTIVE RISK ADAPTATION TO SALINE INTRUSION: A CASE IN

THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA

VAN HUYNH THANH PHAM

2020

APPROVAL

Title of Dissertation: Collective risk adaptation to saline intrusion: A case in the

Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Student Number: 1631621001

Program Study: Development Studies

This dissertation have been examined in form of oral defense in front of the doctoral examiner committee at the Graduate Program Andalas University, and declared PASSED at the date of 17 th May, 2019

2 Coordinator of Study Program,

Prof Dr Ir Helmi, M.Sc

For the PhD journey,

It may not be what I have thought at the beginning,

but I think I have arrived where I needed to be

A good dissertation is the finished one

(The 1 st supervisor’s quotation)

A BRIEF BIOGRAPHY

Van Huynh Thanh Pham is currently a lecturer in Rural Development and Natural Resources Management Department, Agriculture and Natural Resources Faculty, An Giang University in Vietnam I am living in Long Xuyen city, An Giang province, locating on the southern west of Vietnam

I was born in 4th October 1978 in Tra Vinh province locating on the southern east of Vietnam, bordering Pacific Ocean to the east My father name is Pham Van Yem and my mother name is Huynh Kim Thieu, both of them are teachers Growing up in this family, I had been given such emotions guiding me

to be a lecturer after finishing university degree

I got Bachelor degree in Crop Science at Can Tho University (Vietnam) in

2001 Since this time, I have been working in An Giang University (AGU), the second public university in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam In 2006 I obtained a Master’s degree in Sustainable Rural Development, awarded at the Royal Agriculture University, England, United Kingdom I started my PhD in Development Study at the Graduate School of Andalas University, West Sumatra, Indonesia in August, 2016 and the PhD degree was achieved in 2019

I enjoy teaching at the university I am also interested in doing research, to produce long – term agricultural products whilst protecting natural resources, especially in the case of climate change

ORIGINALITY DECLARATION

I, VAN HUYNH THANH PHAM, hereby declare that in this dissertation there were no works that had been submitted by other people to obtain an academic degree at any university, and as far as my knowledge was also not there were works or opinions that had been written or published by others, except those written in the text and mentioned in the references list

Padang, 20 January 2020 Author

Van Huynh Thanh Pham

COLLECTIVE RISK ADAPTATION TO SALINE INTRUSION:

A CASE IN THE VIETNAMESE MEKONG DELTA

By: Van Huynh Thanh Pham (Supervised by: Prof Rudi Febriamansyah, Prof Afrizal and Dr Thong Anh Tran)

Abstract

Saline intrusion causes serious risks for agriculture and social life in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta Maintaining and improving coastal livelihoods under the challenging condition of scarcity of fresh-water places greater pressures for rural societies This dissertation explores saline water intrusion status, its trend and its impact on the livelihoods of coastal farmers in order to address issues of forms and roles of collective risk adaptation for strengthening group adaptive capacity to sustain development Based on collective action theory and institutional analysis development framework, the model study of this study had been built to understand the collective adaptation, its forms, outcome, and factors related to both internal and external ones affecting this process By adapting the social-ecological approach, this research was conducted in Tra Vinh and Kien Giang provinces, the two main coastal areas adversely affected by the saline intrusion in recent years Stratified sampling and mixed methods using in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, case study and household surveys were used

The results suggested persistent exposure to saline intrusion in the two coastal zones Farmers’ perceptions are different in the two areas, due to different scales of impacts, occurring more in the West than the East The trend is also estimated to continue its growth in future time In addition, increased impacts of salinity and high demands of shrimp in the market enabled farmers to shift from rice cultivation to shrimp cultivation in both sides of the Delta, extensive system

in the West and intensive system in the East This adaptation brought better income for some but created social impacts on those having less adaptive capacity

to meet this challenge Regarding social impacts, social change happens more in the West to solve difficulties of shifting process In terms of community adaptive capacities had been found to be different between the West and the East that structure various forms of collective adaptation named social groups and formal organizations It acts in different roles in the West and the East to reduce social impacts Both social and ecological factors contribute to form and maintain collective adaptation Physical conditions (water scarcity, the status of irrigation system), social and economic factors (economic status, group size, market demand) and institutional system (rules in use, head of the group) are those factors shaping collective adaptation in facing saline intrusion

For the future, in view of rising sea levels brought about by global warming, dealing with the reality of saline intrusion will become more serious; collective adaptation should be kept and developed as so to enhance community adaptive capacities, and social entrepreneurship and partnership should be adopted into agricultural fields for coastal farmers to organize and optimize resources to create better living conditions The results of this research also contribute empirical knowledge of how the enhancement of farmers’ awareness of the effects

of the impacts saline intrusion can contribute to collective risk adaptation

Key words: Collective adaptation, Intensive shrimp system, Saline intrusion,

Shrimp-rice system, Social and ecological approach, the Mekong Delta

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This dissertation addresses the issue of saline water intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, to understand the current situation, future trend and its impact on the livelihood of coastal farmers The research also explores forms and roles of collective risk adaptation in facing to saline intrusion and the potentials to strengthen group adaptive capacity to sustain development

This research would not have been possible without the encouragement and significant support from various sources First and foremost, I would like to express my deep gratitude to my supervisory panel I am especially indebted to Prof Dr Rudi Febriamansyah, who has taken care of me from the beginning to the end of my study program Without his help, the degree program and the dissertation could not have been completed He gave me emotional support, good care, and confidence in dealing with difficulties I am deeply thankful for co-advisors, Prof Dr Afrizal and Dr Thong Anh Tran who also gave much valuable advice and assistance toward the completion of my work

Thanks are due to Prof Helmi, Head of Study program in Development Study, Andalas University for good communication and advice

Specially thank Prof Ardi (Agricultural Faculty, Andalas University) for his encouragement and help I met him in 2016 at An Giang University He informed me about this course and supported me to get in touch with the supervisors Without his support, my study wouldn’t have been finished

My deepest appreciation to Dr Charles Howie (The Royal Agricultural University, England, UK) for his useful advice and communication, he gave me effective support on my study, thanks also for his English editing

Thanks to staffs of An Giang University, staffs of Program Pascasarjana, staffs of International officers at Andalas University for their assistance, especially

to Prof, Yonariza, Dr Yuerlita, Dr Mandi, Dr Richard Stanford, Dr Vonny and Mrs Bety for their good advice and support

I particularly appreciate the agricultural officers in An Bien and Cau Ngang districts, Kien Giang and Tra Vinh provinces for useful conversation and assistance I wish to thank the farmers who shared their time for giving me very valuable information Without their support, I could not have completed my study

My deepest thanks to Rural Development students in An Giang University,

to Le Thi My Ly (DH4PN) Nguyen Thi Thoai Giang and Luong Thi Kim Anh (DH15PN); Ho Huu Phuoc, Le Truong Giang, Bui Lam Tuan, Hoa Thi Kim Ngoan, Nguyen Thi Hong Dao and Nguyen Thi Hong Cam (DH16PN) for their assistance during the fieldwork

I would like to thank my parents, my sister, and brother for their love and support, to my parents in law who gave me encouragement

I thank and love to my husband, Tran Ngoc Van, for his support during the time I was away from home He always trusted me and accompanied me over the course of my doctoral study Thanks also to my loving two sons, Tran Dinh Khoi and Tran Dinh Khang who had to be away from their mother to support my study

Finally, I would like to thank Andalas University for financial support that made it possible for me to pursue this doctoral study

Padang, January 2020

Pham Huynh Thanh Van

TABLE OF CONTENT

Page

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT i

TABLE OF CONTENT iii

LIST OF FIGURES V LIST OF APPENDIXES XI CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1

A.Research background 1

B.Objectives of research 6

C.Significance of the research 7

D.Structure of dissertation 8

CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 11

A.Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation 11

B.Collective action in theories, forms and factors affected 32

C.Institution and Institutional Analysis Development Framework 52

D.Applying IADF into the Vietnamese situation 61

CHAPTER III RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 65

A.Selection of research area 65

B.Research methods 70

CHAPTER IV SALINE INTRUSION AND TRENDS 78

A.Climate change and saline intrusion 78

B.Farmers’ perception and the future trend of saline intrusion 90

CHAPTER V ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF SALINE INTRUSION ON COASTAL LIVELIHOODS 96

A.Saline intrusion impacts and changes to the farming system 96

B.Economic impacts 104

C.Social changes 108

CHAPTER VI ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND COLLECTIVE ADAPTATION FORMS 113

A.Adaptive capacity at the household level 113

B.Group adaptive capacity 116

C.Forms of collective adaptation 129

CHAPTER VII FACTORS SHAPING COLLECTIVE ADAPTATION 135

A.Ecological- social factors affecting collective risk adaptation 135

B.Relations of ecological and social factors 137

C.Factors affecting collective adaptation to achieve sustainable development 142

CHAPTER VIII DISCUSSION 155

A.Human adaptation as response to change of natural environment 155 B.Importance of social capital in forming and maintaining group adaptive capacity 157

C.Social entrepreneurship and partnership to achieve sustainable agriculture development 160

CHAPTER IX CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 164

A.Conclusion 164

B.Policy recommendations 165

REFERENCES 168

APPENDIXES 188

LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table 1 A review of adaptation’s definitions 14

Table 2 Attributes of adaptation in the climate change context 15

Table 3 Implications for adaptation evaluation criteria the context of climate change 16

Table 4 Factors describe adaptive capacity at individual and community levels 18

Table 5 Relations between water salinity and soil salinity 19

Table 6 Percentage (%) of plant damage base on salt concentration 22

Table 7 Salt concentration and risk for irrigation 23

Table 8 Development of water system in the Mekong delta of Vietnam 23

Table 9 Period and strategy for agricultural development in the Mekong Delta 25 Table 10 Characteristics of canal system in the Delta 26

Table 11 Policy documents for salinity management 27

Table 12 Rice increasing in areas and production in the VMD from 1995 to 2015 29

Table 13 Dimentions of social capital in the community 36

Table 14 Types of social capital and explanation 37

Table 15 Timeline of civil society development in Vietnam 41

Table 16 Characteristic of NGO, social enterprises and traditional enterprises 45 Table 17 Principles for running the common resources 51

Table 18 Elements of the IADF framework 55

Table 19 A description of social ecological model levels 57

Table 20 Entities involved in social-ecological systems 59

Table 21 Interaction and outcome in social and ecological system 59

Table 22 Factors affecting likelihoods and collective action in SES 60

Table 23 Components at community level in case of SI in VMD 63

Table 24 Profiles of An Bien and Cau Ngang district 69

Table 25 Physical information, social–economic and policy status, and the information sources 72

Table 26 Number of meetings with local authorities and agricultural officers 73 Table 27 Number of meetings and name of organizations of expert 74

Table 28 Causes of SI in farmers’ knowledge 87

Table 29 Source of information to recognize about SI’s status 90

Table 30 Different farmers’ perception in facing saline intrusion in the West and the East 92

Table 31 Trend of climate factors in the VMD in the next three decades 94

Table 32 Areas and loss of rice due to salt-water in the VMD in 2016 96

Table 33 Impacts of saline intrusion on agriculture and livelihood 97

Table 34 Timeline of shifting from rice to shrimp farming in the Delta 99

Table 35 Farmers’ adaptation to saline intrusion 100

Table 36 Changing of farming systems in the West and East 101

Table 37 Farming systems in the West and East 102

Table 38 Cost and profit of shrimp-rice system in An Bien, 105

Table 39 Cost and profit of intensive shrimp farming in Cau Ngang district 107 Table 40 Rate of households having profits and losing investment 108

Table 41 Difficulties of shifting from rice to shrimp culture in both regions 108 Table 42 Social change in the West and the East to overcome difficulties 110

Table 43 Factors affecting social change 111

Table 44 Age, education and current jobs of the household’ members 114

Table 45 Roles of household’s members for making decision 115

Table 46 Forms of the groups’ activities 116

Table 47 Functions of groups formed facing to SI 119

Table 48 Collective adaptation process in the West and the East 125

Table 49 Factors describe adaptive capacity at commune levels contributing to make different adaptation between the West to the East 127

Table 50 Organisation and social group in An Bien and Cau Ngang provinces 131

Table 51 Characteristics of formal organisations and social groups 134

Table 52 Factors affecting collective adaptation in case of SI 135

Table 53 Explanation of the ecological and social factors affecting CRA 136

Table 54 Social and ecological factors affecting collective adaptation 143

Table 55 Factors affecting collective adaptation in the Delta 150

Table 56 Potential for collective adaptation in the VMD 152

LIST OF FIGURES

Page

Figure 1 Administrative map of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta 2

Figure 2 The incidence and severity of saline intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta 3

Figure 3 Saline intrusion occurred seriously in the Mekong Delta in 2016 4

Figure 4 Elements of vulnerability and role of adaptive capacity 17

Figure 5 The movement of saltwater into freshwater aquifer 20

Figure 6 Shape of the Mekong River in the Delta (Above) and distance of salt water intruded into the Mekong River branches from 1977 – 1998 (Below) 21

Figure 7 Rice yield reduces because of salt concentration 22

Figure 8 Location of some main salt water control projects in the Delta and South Vam Nao is fresh water control project 28

Figure 9 Shrimp production increases by regions in Vietnam from 1995 – 2016 30 Figure 10 Relation between forms of social capital and collective action 35

Figure 11 Types of social capitals in vertical circumstance 37

Figure 12 Circumstances in which bonding and networking social capital are important for resilient capacity 38

Figure 13 Structure of political system in Vietnam 40

Figure 14 Characteristic of civil society in Vietnam 41

Figure 15 The Institution Analysis Development Framework 54

Figure 16 A conceptual framework of social-ecological systems 56

Figure 17 The core subsystems in a framework for analyzing SES 58

Figure 18 Framework to study collective adaptation and factors affected 62

Figure 19 Areas affected by saline intrusion in the VMD and selected study sizes

66

Figure 20 Research location: (1) Nam Yen commune and (2) Dong Thai commune in An Bien district, Kien Giang province, 67

Figure 21 Research location in Cau Ngang district in Tra Vinh province 68

Figure 22 Process to select study sites from regional to hamlet levels 70

Figure 23 Location of salt gauging stations 71

Figure 24 Location of five main gauging stations (Rach Gia, Can Tho, My Tho, Vung Tau, Ca Mau) in the Mekong Delta 79

Figure 25 Average temperature increasing in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in a thirty year period 80

Figure 26 Sea level rose in both sides of the Delta, the West (left) and in the East (right) 80

Figure 27 Trend of rainfall in the five main gauging stations in the VMD 81

Figure 28 Distribution of the different levels of salinity soil in the VMD 82

Figure 29 Saline intrusion increasing in the West of the VMD 83

Figure 30 Saline intrusion increasing in the East of the VMD 84

Figure 31 Distance of salt-water intrusion on both sides of the Delta 84

Figure 32 Salinity control projects in Thu Ba canal in An Bien district (the West, left), and in Thau Rau river in Cau Ngang district (the East, right) 85

Figure 33 Correlation of water level in Tien River and the salt intrusion 86

Figure 34 Cause of saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta 88

Figure 35 Water hyacinth dead in the Thu Ba canal in An Bien district (the West) due to salt water (on the left); Community loudspeaker (on the right) in Nam Yen Commune, An Bien district (the West) 91

Figure 36 SI at the present time and in the year 2050 (right) in the VMD 95

Figure 37 Rice dead due to salt-water in shrimp rice farming in An Bien District

(the West, on the left); dead-rice field in Cau Ngang district (the East;

on the right) 98Figure 38 Popular shrimp-rice system in the West (left) and diversified shrimp

systems in the East (right) 103Figure 39 Rice ratoon (Lúa chét) in shrimp-rice system (the West side) –the good

food source for shrimp 106Figure 40 Many shops selling fry along the street in An Bien district, in the West

(on the left), and in Cau Ngang district, in the East (on the right) 109Figure 41 Little house (chòi)- a meeting place on the intensive shrimp farm in the

East (the left side) and on the shrimp-rice farm in the West (the right side) 117Figure 42 UN water group, gate to control water get in or release out of the field

(on the left) and the canal transfer water among the fields (on the right) 120Figure 43 Tu Lam water group, the cement sluice provided by the government

(on the left) and the canal in the field (on the right) 121Figure 44 Location of the shrimp- rice farms in Bao Tram co-operative in Nam

Yen commune, An Bien district (the West) 122Figure 45 How to remove claws of Giant fresh-water Shrimp 123Figure 46 Big shrimp- rice farm in the West and small intensive shrimp pond in

the East 128Figure 47 Labour group removes mud to clean up shrimp pond in Hiep My Dong

commune, Cau Ngang district (the East) 132Figure 48 Linkages between ecological and social factors shaping CRA 137Figure 49 Levels of linkage in the social and ecological system and factors

affecting collective risk adaptation 139Figure 50 Middle-men collect rice and shrimp in the East to resell 141

LIST OF APPENDIXES

Page

Appendix 1 Classification of adaptation 188

Appendix 2 Types of organizations in civil society in Vietnam 188

Appendix 3 Time line of co-operative law in Vietnam 189

Appendix 4 Information for focus group discussion 190

Appendix 5 List of questions to interview agricultural officers 192

Appendix 6 List of questions to interview local officers 193

Appendix 7 List of questions to interview expert 195

Appendix 8 Questionnaire 196

Appendix 9 List of questions to interview the 1st and 2nd person made change 206

Appendix 10 Interview the group leader 207

Appendix 11 Interview group members 208

Appendix 12 Topography of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam 209

Appendix 13 Characteristics of climate change scenarios in Vietnam 209

Appendix 14 Scenarios for sea level rise in Vietnam (Version 2016) 210

Appendix 15 Saltwater-tolerant rice varieties of Cuu Long Delta Rice Research Institute 210

Appendix 16 Reasons to change farming system (n=280) 210

Appendix 17 Reason to join the group (n=146) 211

ABBREVIATIONS AND GLOSSARY

IADF Institution Analysis Development Framework

PSAV Partnership for Sustainable Agriculture in Vietnam

Hụi A financial group – A group of people saving and

lending money together Every month, money contributed by all members is given to one member who gives the biggest interest rate at the group meeting Next month, it will be another member’s turn

Association (Hội) Group of people which is self- created It has less

support from the government than organization/ union forms The government supports mainly in issued permission Fields of acting are various in the agricultural field (fish association, fruit association) and others (labor association, …)

Chòi A watchtower built on a shrimp farm where farmers stay

to look after shrimp It also a place for informal meetings to happen

Climate This refers to the long-term average of climate events

(or trend) and also to the size of the variations around the trend (climate variability)

Climate risk Climate risk means a risk resulting from climate change

and affecting natural and human systems and regions

Common pool

resource

Goods which are rivalrous and non-excludable Anyone has access to the good, but that the use of the good by one person reduces the ability of someone else to use it Community-based

organization

They can be social groups or association which is started with ideas coming from local demands such as water use, labor management, environmental maintaining, and development They often have no support from the government

Co-operative Hợp tác xã- An economic group established based on an

agreement of group members about financial status, the business which is formed based on the democratic process Co-operative has a formal structure and is issued by Finance and Plan Department at the district level (belong

to People’s committee) It has a personal status (having a bank account and stamp)

Co-operative group - Tổ hợp tác – An economic group established based on

an agreement of group members It is issued by a commune leader It has a formal structure but doesn’t have legal personal status (no stamp, no bank account) Formal

xiiiorganization

An organization is formed by governmental support and it

is closely connected with the state

Free riding The use of public good by people uninvolved in the

process of making them available Hazard It refers to a source of potential harm and danger (can be

natural sources or others)

Informal organization Group is built without support from the government in

general In the situation of Vietnam, it can be an

association and social group The two has a little difference that social group has no connection with the government while association got little support in terms

of documents’ guidance

Mass organization Large groups of people having formal structure remain

connected to the government from central to village levels The link to most of the government development programs and considered as good tools for the implementation of those programs

Public goods Public goods are things that are available for the use of

everyone regardless of those people’s investment

Risk Probability of suffering loss and damage from a hazard Social group Group has been created by local people without any

connection and supports from the state Rules in group occurring and it is accepted by groups’ members (not stamped by the state) To some extent, it is similar to the informal organization

Union The big group of people having the same purpose

belongs to the mass organizations, e.g Woman Union, Farmers’ Union, and Youth Union The clear difference between union and association is that the union has closed to the government than the association

Weather Refers to the short-term average (trend) [of temperature,

humidity, precipitation, wind speed] and also to the size of the variations around the trend (weather variability)

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION

In Vietnam, the Mekong Delta is an area significantly affected by climate change In recent years, saline intrusion (SI) has increased in frequency due to climate factors and the effects of human development Saline intrusion causes significant damage to livelihoods and the life of coastal inhabitants Changing their farming system is a common strategy used by coastal farmers to respond to environmental change which can bring economic gain but can also create social challenges From this context, collective risk adaptation (CRA) has emerged as an approach to mobilize the adaptive capacity of groups of actors

A Research background

The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is the last part of the country where the Mekong River flows out into the East Sea The Mekong River, which rises in Tibet, flows down through China for about 2.500 km and then for another 2.400 km between Lao PDR and Myanmar, Lao PDR and Thailand, into Cambodia, and down to the Delta in Vietnam ((ICEM) International Center for Environmental Management, 2013) The formation of the VMD links to changes

in sea level and hydrology of the Mekong River In the Holocene, the coastline was close to Phnom Penh, however, since 7,000 years ago, the Delta started expanding southeastwards due to the alluvial deposition from the Mekong River (CCAFS-SEA (Climate Change - Agriculture and Food Security - Southeast Asia), 2016) The Delta borders with Cambodia to the North, Pacific Ocean to the East, Gulf of Thailand to the West and Ho Chi Minh City to the North East Administratively, there are twelve provinces and one central city including Long

An, Tien Giang, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, Tra Vinh, Hau Giang, Soc Trang, Ben Tre, An Giang, Kien Giang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Can Tho city (Figure 1)

Figure 1 Administrative map of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Source: (Le and Wyseure, 2007)

The Delta climate is tropical with two distinct dry and wet seasons The wet season begin in April through November and provides almost all of the annual rainfall of local regions1 The rest of the year is the dry season The Delta temperature is high and stable, varying from 24,5 0C to 28,9 0C

The VMD is located in an important area for the socio-economic development of Vietnam It is a vast wetland of 40.604,7 km2, accounting for 12%

of the country’s total area and 27% of the agricultural land of Vietnam It is home

to 18 million people, 20% of the country’s population (IUCN Vietnam (International Union for the Conservation of Nature in Vietnam), 2010) The Delta has enormous potential for agriculture and aquaculture production In 2016 it produced 25 million tons of rice; an agricultural output that accounted for 50% of the whole national production Regarding exports, the Delta produced about 90%

of rice, 60% of fruit trees and 70% of aquaculture products (IPSARD (Institution

of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development), 2016)

1 About 90% of total rainwater falls from May to October (Le et al., 2004)

The VMD consists of flat terrain, with an average height of 0,7 to 1,2 m above mean sea level, except for some high hills in the Northern Delta (Deltares

& Alliance, 2011) The river network of the Mekong River as it reaches the Delta

is complicated with nine estuaries and dense canal systems The Delta is recognized by diverse hydrological characteristics varying greatly between two different parts of the Delta The upper part is vulnerable to flooding while the lower one has coastal characteristics and is vulnerable to SI (Figure 2) (IMHE (Institute of Meteorology - Hydrology and Environment in Vietnam), 2010, Nguyen, 2008)

Figure 2 The incidence and severity of saline intrusion in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

Source: (Clayton, 2003)

SI is indicated by the distance of saltwater intruding mainland and concentration of salt level in the water (SIWRR (Southern Institute of Water Resources Research), 2015) Approximately 2,1 million hectares of the Delta coastal areas (50% of the Delta land) are affected by salinity during the dry season (WB (World Bank), 2015) Saltwater intrudes inland from the Hau and Tien river

mouths’ and Ca Mau peninsula's estuaries, strongly from February to April (Le et

al., 2004) Salinization has severe consequences, affecting agriculture, aquaculture

production, and livelihoods of the farmers living in coastal areas (Nguyen, 2016a, IPSARD, 2016)

Saline intrusion is a natural phenomenon occurring annually in the dry season when not enough river discharge flows to the low-lying estuaries and

instead salt water take the place flowing into the mainland (Le et al., 2007, Estellès et al., 2012) In the Delta, SI happened regularly during the period from

1977 – 1997 The year 1998 was the first time SI had been recognized as a climate

risk (Dang et al., 2007) since the distance saltwater intruded inland was farther

than it had in previous years Since this time, the effects of SI have become more serious and uncertain It has occurred with higher density and a bigger magnitude (IPSARD, 2016, SIWRR, 2015) For example, in 2016, SI occurred more seriously than has been expected (Figure 3)

Figure 3 Saline intrusion occurred seriously in the Mekong Delta in 2016

Source: (Water Resources Research Institute of the South, 2016)

The main factors determining SI are the Mekong river discharges, local rainfall and runoff, the amplitude of tides in the East Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, the slope of the river bed, the wind velocity and direction and the depth of the

estuary (IUCN Vietnam, 2010, Nguyen, 2016a, Tran et al., 2012, CCAFS-SEA,

2016, WB, 2015, Nguyen, 2016b, Nguyen, 2008) The VMD is relatively flat and low and the interlaced canal systems (with an average density of 4 km in length 1

km2) that create the favorable conditions for the tidal sea (MARD (Ministry of Agricultural and Development), 2017, Nguyen, 2016a) Besides, building dams on the upstream areas of the Mekong river has become an important reason influencing seriously on the SI’s status because of reducing of water flow in the main river (WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature), 2012, CCAFS-SEA, 2016)

In the future, the VMD would experience significant negative impacts from sea level rise2 Research from the SIWRP (Southern Institution for Water Resource Planning) showed that by the year 2050 VMD salinity soil at the level

>4g/L will increase up to 2.018.822 ha (52,9% of total Delta land), up to 5,4% more in comparison with the current status (47,5%; about 1.813.826 ha) (Le, 2016)

The Vietnamese government has intervened by building salinity control projects to prevent SI since 1990s of the last century The Government has invested heavily in salinity control structures3 to control a region of about 926.000

ha with 650.000 ha for agricultural land (Tran, 2009, Nguyen, 2016a) In addition,

450 km of sea dikes, 1.290 km of main river/canal dikes and 7.000 km of tertiary and quaternary canal dikes with sluices were constructed (Nguyen, 2016a) By implementing these projects, the Government expected that farmers in the saline zones could intensify rice farming and other freshwater upland crops to improve

their livelihoods (WB, 2015, Dang et al., 2012) However, SI still occurs and

forces coastal farmers to adapt to overcome the impacts In addition, there is clear evidence that SI occurs and affects the whole coastal communities in the Delta in which farmers earn less income than freshwater farmers due to water and land

constraints (Dang et al., 2007 and Clayton, 2003) In the future, SI will increase

(MARD (Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development) & MORE (Minister of Environment and Natural resources, 2013)

2 The sea level rise had increased by 20 cm since 1901 (CCAFS-SEA, 2016)

3 They are Go Cong, South Mang Thit, Quan Lo Phung Hiep, and Ba Lai salinity control projects

Some of the research has studied collective action in cases of salinity management (Marshall, 2004, Panda, 2006) However, the issue of collective adaptation has been mentioned rarely in previous studies in Vietnam (Joffre and Sheriff, 2011) and none has been done in studying collective action in managing water resources to face SI The lesson learned from current adaptation to climate change in Vietnam indicates that strength of community capacity has not been discovered which is very important to build adaptive capacity (IPSARD, 2016), while the result of preliminary research done in 2016 in An Bien district, Kien Giang province illustrated that the potentials of collective action helping farmers

to create group adaptive capacity to adapt to SI Therefore, this study was conducted to gain insights into the status of collective action and its ability to build group capacity to adapt to SI With the assumption that ecological factors contribute to the adaptation process, the research was done in both sides of the Delta (the West and the East) to answer the overarching research question: What are type of CRA and factors affecting the formation process?

To respond to the general question, the four specific questions are answered as follows:

1 What are the physical characteristics of SI in the VMD?

2 What are the social and economic impacts of SI on the household’s livelihoods?

3 How have CRA been formed and what are the outcomes?

4 How do social and ecological factors influence CRA?

B Objectives of research

Saline intrusion impacts agriculture and livelihoods of the Mekong coastal inhabitants Collective action contributes to managing natural resources, especially in the case of adapting to environmental change This research was carried out to examine appropriate CRA and its potential to strengthen group adaptive capacities in the case of SI in the VMD

The research was carried out to achieve the four objectives:

1 To analyze the physical characteristics of SI’s change in the VMD;

2 To analyze the social and economic impact of SI on households’ livelihood;

3 To identify patterns of CRA and the outcomes;

4 To explore factors influencing CRA in the VMD

C Significance of the research

This dissertation contributes innovative original research findings on how collective adaptation has been formed and the factors taking part in the formation process to face SI Collective action plays an important role in managing natural resources, especially dealing with the impacts of climate risk SI happens in the Delta and its impacts affect whole coastal communities so adaptation is not only

an individual concern, but also a community consideration There are few lessons learned from studies of collective action in Vietnam and no research has been conducted in the field of collective action with SI

In the context of Vietnam, centralized government management has been considered an important source of climate risk adaptation This research will give opportunities for both farmers and governmental agencies to know to what extent CRA exists in local communities and its ability to overcome the challenge of SI This research also proposed that by understating the relations between social and ecological context give more spaces for institutions to discuss to share their understanding and decision-making for the collaborative saline management and formulating the CRA policies in the region

Theoretically, this research can make a contribution by giving an example

of autonomous adaptation as a function of the social and ecological system, environmental change guides community adaptive capacity It supports the adaptation theory with the fact that adaptation base on local adaptive capacity It provides empirical evidence to see how local communities have overcome collective action problems to achieve common goals Regarding SES, it is clear to see how the social-ecological system (SES) concept works in the political system

to respond to climate risk’s impacts Also, it gives readers a space to see how the Institutional Analysis Development Framework (IADF) acts in the political

system that is important to sustain social capital’s functions In conclusion, findings from those four objectives can be developed for further policy implication to improve collective risk management in the study sites

D Structure of dissertation

The thesis contains eight chapters

Chapter I: Introduction- This chapter gives an overview of research areas

mentioning about natural conditions of the VMD and the SI’s status It also explains about the gaps and objectives of research and the reasons to

do research in regards to fill the gaps, looking for current situation of SI, forms and factors affecting the forming process

Chapter II Literature review- The first part of the dissertation reviews those

issues related to the concept of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation together with the status of SI in the Delta which has been considered as climate risk Collective action in terms of theory and practice is also considered in regarding to concept of social capital, its forms and functions At the last part, IADF is learnt for better understanding how collective action is formed in reality and the contribution of social and ecological factors into the shaped process

Chapter III Research methodology - Research size, research methods and stages

of conducting the research are described in this chapter Initially, the reasons to choose research size are discussed relating to the issue that change of natural conditions guides human actions that have been made

to cope with the changes In the second part, research methods are written to show clearly how the four research objectives can be achieved through the two research stages

Chapter IV Physical characteristic of saline intrusion in the Delta- It is apparent

that the Delta is affected by climate change and SI is one of the impacts occurring seriously in the coastal areas In addition, causes of SI are described to show the complicated causes of SI affected by both regional and local factors Farmers’ perception of SI is also mentioned in regarding the difference between the West and the East The trend of SI

places at the last part of this chapter displacing that SI will change upwards in the upcoming years

Chapter V Economic and social impacts of saline intrusion on coastal

livelihoods- Shifting of the farming system as the main adaptation is

placed in the first part showing the different adaptive actions of coastal farmers in the West and the East Economic impacts are included in the second part regarding its gain in both areas, more sources of income from shrimp rice system in the West and big profit from intensive farming in the East, while the social problem is followed The chapter is ended by the issue of social changes taking place differently on both sides of the Delta to overcome the challenges

Chapter VI Adaptive capacity and collective adaptation forms- The first part

expresses information at the household’s level related to the roles of the families’ members in making collective decision Adaptive capacity at the community level is described at the second emphasized on the fact that it is more in the West The last part mentions forms of CRA which are classified following social structure and function criteria Characteristics of formal organization and social groups last at the end to explain clearly the various characteristics between two organizations

Chapter VII Factors shaping collective adaptation- This chapter describes

ecological and social factors affecting CRA classified into the four categories: resource system, resource user, governance system and resource unit The next part mentions about linkages between social and ecological factors in causal loops and also in levels of links among three categories (physical characteristics of the environment, social-economic factors and institutional system) at different levels of interaction within social-ecological system starting from interpersonal, organization, community and policy

Chapter VIII Discussion- This chapter discusses those issues that have been

discovered throughout the research The first issue related to adaptation theory explained that human action as a response to environmental change Natural conditions have been changed in the Delta and the result

is that changing the farming system as a main adaptation strategy to cope with changes The second issue discusses the roles of social capital in building collective adaptation in regards to the social capital forms (trust, network, and institution) which act differently on social groups and formal organizations To achieve better sustainable development, the issue of social entrepreneurship should be brought into this context to better manage and make the income of natural resources The potential of social entrepreneurship and partnership to achieve sustainable development is the third point to be discussed in this chapter

Chapter IX Conclusion and recommendation- This chapter concludes the issues

which have been mentioned in the previous chapters In the second part,

it also proposes recommendations for farmers, local authorities and theoretical aspects in order to build more effective collective adaptation

in future time

CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW

This chapter reviews the issues related to the concept of CRA and is separated into four parts Firstly, climate change, vulnerability and adaptation concept along with SI as climate risk Secondly, the theory of collective adaptation, the forms, and factors influencing the forming process are continuously studied Thirdly, definitions, elements of IADF and how it is integrated into social-ecological context are followed Fourthly, how IADF is adopted in the case of SI in the VMD

A Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation

The review of climate change, vulnerability and its components including biophysical and social concepts are placed in the first part The definition of adaptation and its characters have also included The next part also studies adaptive capacity which is vital for building adaptation in both individual and community levels

1 Climate change and vulnerability

a) Climate change

The popular definition of climate which is accepted worldwide is what IPCC (2007) had defined “climate usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity” Regarding climate, it should be seen in relation to weather4 since they are intertwined The causes of climate change are very complicated, but the main reason is releasing greenhouse gases5 into the atmosphere (Williams, 2002) Recently, the issue of whether or not climate change has increased has received great public attention It is clear to see that the earth’s climate is already

4 Climate is generally defined as average weather, and as such, climate change Weather, in contrast, refers to a specific event or condition that happens over a period of hours

or days (Le Treut et al., 2007, Williams, 2002)

5 The main greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons and other industrial gases Among them, carbon dioxide is currently responsible for over 60% of the enhanced greenhouse effect (William, 2006) Greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the planet They trap energy in the atmosphere and cause it to warm

adjusting to past greenhouse gas emissions Measurement records indicate an increase of 0,6± 0,2°C in global average temperature along with mean sea level has risen by 10 to 20 cm since the late 19th century (Williams, 2002)

Climate change is already affecting the food and agriculture sectors, and these effects are projected to grow, along with global average temperatures (FAO, 2017) Its impact on food and agriculture is interconnected across environmental, social and economic dimensions (FAO, 2017) Some agricultural regions will be threatened by climate change, while others may benefit and the most vulnerable people are landless, poor, and isolated (William, 2006) FAO (2017) has predicted the number of people who are poverty due to climate change:

“Up to 122 million more people worldwide may live in extreme

poverty by 2030 as a result of climate change and its

repercussions on the incomes of small-scale farmers”

In the future, some main impacts of climate change have been predicted like the mean sea level is expected to rise 9- 88 cm by the year 2100, global warming of about 1,4 – 5, 8°C between 1990 and 2100 (Williams, 2002, IPCC, 2007)

In the case of coastal areas, the global average sea level has risen by 10 to

20 cm over the past 100 years The rate of increase has been 1-2 mm per year some 10 times faster than the rate observed for the previous 3,000 years (William, 2006) Coastal zones are extremely vulnerable because they have been modified and intensively developed in recent decades and thus made even more vulnerable

to higher sea levels Salt-water intrusion will reduce the quality and quantity of freshwater supplies (IPCC, 2007) In addition, adaptation of coasts will be more challenging in developing countries than in developed countries with weaker economies and institutions (IPCC, 2007, William, 2006)

Climate change has been happening, so human and the ecosystem needs to adapt to future climatic regimes, particularly, global agriculture will face challenges over the coming decades The next part explains the vulnerability and adaptation concepts as they are the ways human responses to environmental changes

b) Vulnerability

The term vulnerability emerged as an important analytical concept related

to climate risk In the past, the vulnerability was understood just as exposure Adopted the definition developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007) So, a more complete picture of vulnerability encompasses exposure to risk, sensitivity to these risks, and adaptive capacity of individuals or collective groups to respond to collective risk

 Exposure: it represents the important climate events and patterns that

affect the system (Brooks, 2003) which is characterized by the magnitude,

frequency, duration and/or spatial extent of a weather event or pattern (Marshall et al., 2010)

 Sensitivity: It is the degree to which a system is affected by, or responsive

to climate change that is classified as biophysical and social vulnerabilities

(sensitivities of physical and chemical conditions and social systems) (Marshall et al., 2010, Iwama et al., 2016) Both of them are dependent on the interaction

between the characteristics of the system and on the attributes of the climate stimulus (Smit and Wandel, 2006)

The third component of vulnerability is adaptive capacity which will be described in the next part along with the adaptation concept

2 Adaptation

a) Adaptation’s definition

Recently, the concept of adaptation has been receiving great attention of scientists from different backgrounds Adaptation as human action to adapt to environmental change is not a new phenomenon that has been created through human history To take a clear example, traditional societies had always attempted

to make the best use of the climatic resources (Agrawal and Perrin, 2009, Adger,

2003, IPCC, 2001b, Marwell et al., 1988, Adger et al., 2003)

Definitions of climate adaptation have been discussed and will be continuously debated The differences arrive from many fields like biological

adaptation (to adapt to risk or physical vulnerability), social adaptation (to adapt

to sensitivity or social vulnerability), and a combinative definition adapting to both physical and social vulnerability A review of adaptation’ definition in a 20 year period is described in Table 1

Table 1 A review of adaptation’s definitions

(Pielke, 1998) Adaptation refers to adjustments in individual,

group and institutional behaviour in order to reduce society’s vulnerabilities to climate impact

(Smit et al., 1999) Adaptation means to make more suitable It refers

to both the process of adapting and the condition of being adapted

(Smit et al., 2003) Adaptation is adjustment in ecological, social, or

economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts

(Smit and Wandel, 2006) Adaptation in human context refers to a process,

action or outcome in a system (household, community, group, sector, region, country) in order for the system to better cope with, manage or adjust

to some changing condition, stress, hazard, risk or opportunity

(Pelling, 2010) Adaptation to climate change, it is a process

through which an actor is able to reflect upon and enact change in those practices and underlying institutions

(Bowyer et al., 2014) Adaptation involves taking action in response to the

impacts of climate change in social, economic and ecological systems, to minimise any threats and maximise any opportunities that may be presented

by a changing climate

Characteristics of adaptation are various because they reply to many factors like climate events, timing, functions, forms, and effects (IPCC, 2001a)

(More details see Appendix 1- Classification of adaptation) They can be classified into several categories such as purposefulness, time, temporal scope, the scale of the actor, form of action However, to some extent, the classification is not always accurate because of the variation of human action in reality Types of adaptation are flexible, for instance, local farmers change crop structure is the autonomous adaptation from the perspective of their government, but it is the

planned adaptation from farmer’s viewpoint (Fankhauser et al., 1999)

b) Adaptation’s attributes

In the climate change context, adaptation encompasses an enormous range

of activities and processes and will vary greatly from context to context

According to Pelling (2010) and Brooks et al., (2011), adaptation can be classified

into three broad categories, including resilience, transition, and transformation which are showed in Table 2 They are various from goal, scope and policies

focus Brooks et al., (2011) gave examples of the three types of adaptation to see

how they can act in reality

Table 2 Attributes of adaptation in the climate change context

environment

technology, management practice and organisation

Resilient building practice use of

through the exercise of rights within the established regime

practices of governance to secure procedural justice

Implementation

responsibilities by private and public sector actors

Change overarching political-economy regime

New political discourses

redefine

Summarized by the Author; Sources (Pelling, 2010, Brooks et al., 2011)

c) Adaptation evaluation

The effects of adaptation are different depending on the system in which they reply on Evaluation is needed to prevent the maladaptation6 (Brooks et al.,

2011), so criteria to evaluate adaptation are various that can be chosen depending

on the specific context (Table 3) Although the criteria exist, it is hard to select appropriate criteria suitable within a particular context, for example, Ostrom (2011a) stated that it is difficult to choose between the goals of efficiency and re-distributional equity

Table 3 Implications for adaptation evaluation criteria the context of climate change

Criterion Implications for adaptation evaluation

Feasibility Technical feasibility; existence of sufficient

management capacity for formulation and implementation; cost (or benefit)

Effectiveness Processes associated with institutional change;

Factors associated with vulnerability to climate change -related hazards

Economic efficiency The ratio of benefits to costs

Fiscal equivalence The equality between individuals’ contributions to an

effort and the benefits they derive

Acceptability Be evaluated through engagement with stakeholders

in community; transparency and accountability are

Sustainability Compatible with environmental sustainability; last

long terms; not increase vulnerability or drive maladaptation in the medium to long-term

Source: (Brooks et al., 2011, McGinnis, 2011, Ostrom, 2011a); Ssummarized by

the Author

6 Maladaptation is used to show a human action which is acted to cope with changes but it is more harmful than helpful, in contrast with an adaptation (more helpful than harmful)

d) Adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity is an important concept to express ability at individual

or community levels in response to environmental changes It is similar to or closely related other commonly used concepts including adaptability, coping ability, management capacity, stability, robustness, flexibility, and resilience

(Berman et al., 2012, Smit and Wandel, 2006, Adger, 2003, Brooks, 2003, Smithers and Smit, 1997, Smit et al., 1999) In a simple way, adaptive capacity

refers to the potential, capability, or ability of a system to adapt to climate change

stimuli or their impacts (Smit et al., 2003) Element and roles of adaptive capacity

are displaced in Figure 4 in which vulnerability is decided by how strong the adaptive capacity is, while the potential impacts on a social system of exposure to

a particular climate event or ecosystem change will be determined in part by its sensitivity To reduce vulnerability, both current and future adaptive capacity (individual or group) is important for building adaptation and strategies use of

natural and social resources

Figure 4 Elements of vulnerability and role of adaptive capacity

Source: Adopted from (IPCC, 2007)

Adaptive capacity is context-specific and varies from country to country, from community to community, among social groups and individuals, and over time (Adger, 2003, IPCC, 2001b, Brooks, 2003, Adger and Vincent, 2005,

Smithers and Smit, 1997) It varies not only in terms of its value but also according to its nature The most vulnerable communities are those that are highly exposed to climate risk impacts and have limited adaptive capacity – most of them are in developing countries (Agrawal and Perrin, 2009) Factors describe adaptive capacity at individual and community levels are described in Table 4

Table 4 Factors describe adaptive capacity at individual and community levels

Summarized by the Author; Source: (Marshall et al., 2010)

1 Perception of risk Capacity to experiment and learn

2 Ability to cope with change Capacity to re-organise

3 Level of interest in change Community assets (natural,

economic, social, physical and human capitals)

4 Ability to plan, learn and

reorganize

Flexibility (social, cultural, political, economic, environmental)

5 Attachment to the occupation Gender relations

6 Employability Environmental institutions and social

norms

7 Family characteristics Culture of corruption

8 Attachment to place Markets

9 Business size and approach

10 Financial status and access to credit

12 Income diversity

13 Local environmental knowledge

14 Environmental awareness, attitudes

and beliefs

15 Access to technology, climate

information and skills

16 Formal and informal networks

17 Perceptions of equity in accessing

resources

3 Saline intrusion as climate risk

This part mentions definition, status, and impacts of SI which is considered as the climate risk in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam

a) Salinity and saline intrusion

 Salinity

In general, salinity is understood by both salt in water (water salinity) and salt in the soil Water salinity is the amount of salt contained in the water (it is also called a salt concentration accounted by g/L), while soil salinity is salt concentration in the water extracted from a saturated soil (called saturation extract) The salt concentration (water salinity) is easier and cheaper to measure

by using simple equipment (Salinity hydrometer7, Salinity refractometer), and data can be collected from the national gauging stations or household farms The relation between salt concentration and soil salinity is described in Table 5 If this water contains less than 3 g/L, and the soil is said to be non-saline, and if the former is more than 12 g/L, the latter is said to be highly saline

Table 5 Relations between water salinity and soil salinity

Salt concentration of the soil water

Salinity (g/L) (millimhos/cm)

7 Salinity may be calculated by measuring the specific gravity of a sample of water using a hydrometer The hydrometer works similar to the egg floating in the saltwater The greater the salinity, the higher the hydrometer will float