Vulnerability to saline intrusion and adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in the mekong delta of vietnam

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM NGUYEN HUU TRI A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT O

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN

THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM

NGUYEN HUU TRI

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT

OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

(ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCE STUDIES)

FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES

MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY

2016

COPYRIGHT OF MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY

Thesis entitled

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN

THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM

………

Mr Nguyen Huu Tri Candidate

……… Assoc Prof Sansanee Choowaew, Ph.D (Environmental Planning) Major advisor

Thesis entitled

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN

THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM

was submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies, Mahidol University

for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Environment and Resource Studies)

on July 28, 2016

………

Mr Nguyen Huu Tri Candidate

……… Assoc Prof Le Anh Tuan,

Ph.D Applied Biological Sciences and Engineering

Chair

……… Assoc Prof Sansanee Choowaew, Ph.D (Environmental Planning) Member

……… Lect Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol, Ph.D (Ecology)

Dean Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies

Thanks to the 60th Year Supreme Reign of His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej scholarship of Mahidol University, the Faculty of Graduate Studies of Mahidol University for Research Assistantship, and the PhD International Programme

of the Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies of Mahidol University, for financial support during my Ph.D program

Also thanks to the staff members of An Giang University for their help during the fieldwork Additional gratitude and sincere appreciation must go to the authorities of the provinces, districts, and villages in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, whom I contacted for my data collection I particularly appreciate the households of the six study villages, who shared their time in supplying very useful information for the research Without their support, I could not have completed my study

I am grateful to my family members for their support and encouragement throughout my study I specially thank my wife, Van Anh, my son, Minh Huy, and my daughter, Minh Khanh, for their love and encouragement of my efforts throughout the program and the preparation of this dissertation

Finally, I expresses my appreciation to all of professors of the Ph.D Program in Environment and Resource Studies of Mahidol University, who shared much of their experience with me in both formal and informal ways

Nguyen Huu Tri

VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM

NGUYEN HUU TRI 5637242 ENER/D

Ph.D (ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCE STUDIES)

(ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING), DUONG VAN NI, Ph.D (WETLAND ECOLOGY), KULVADEE KANSUNTISUKMONGKOL, Ph.D (ECOLOGY)

ABSTRACT This thesis aimed at the insight of the vulnerability to saline intrusion and the adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in different ecological zones of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam The specific objectives were to analyze the impact, adaptation and vulnerability to saline intrusion and evaluate adaptation options for rice and fish farming households Based on the interviews with 390 rice and fish farming households, in An Giang, Can Tho, and Soc Trang–upstream, midstream, and downstream provinces of the Mekong Delta, the study results revealed that the saltwater intensively intruded inland during the dry season and seriously affected rice and fish farming It is not only rice and fish productivity that was affected, but household income, the quality of natural resources and the environment as well Fish farming was faced with the most serious effects, the most vulnerable, and had the least adaptation options compared to rice and integrated rice and fish farming Households in all groups developed adaptation options following the increasing degree of salinity, including (1) changing the seasonal calendar, (2) using tolerant rice varieties and fish species, (3) changing cropping patterns and farming practices, (4) applying integrated production model, and (5) diversifying non-farm activities The research recommended that regional links and transfer of adaptation experience between downstream, midstream and upstream provinces should be put in place for better preparedness, prevention and mitigation in the context of future saline intrusion

ADAPTATION OPTIONS/ RICE AND FISH FARMING HOUSEHOLDS/ MEKONG DELTA/ VIETNAM

186 pages

CHAPTER III RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 36

CONTENTS (cont.)

CHAPTER IV SALINE INTRUSION INTO THE MEKONG DELTA 51

OF VIETNAM: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

4.5 Saline Intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in the Future 62

CHAPTER V IMPACT OF SALINE INTRUSION ON RICE AND FISH 67

FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF

VIETNAM

Households

Saline Intrusion on Rice and Fish Farming Households

CHAPTER VI ADAPTATION OF RICE AND FISH FARMING 98

HOUSEHOLDS TO SALINE INTRUSION IN THE

MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM

to Present Saline Intrusion

to Future Saline Intrusion

CHAPTER VII VULNERABILITY TO SALINE INTRUSION AND 117

ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR RICE AND FISH FARMING

HOUSEHOLDS

Present Saline Intrusion

Future Saline Intrusion

7.4 Adaptation Options for Rice and Fish Farming Households to 120 Present and Future Saline Intrusion

CHAPTER VIII CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 133

Vulnerability to climate change of difference regions of Vietnam

Estimation of sectorial annual investment and financial flow needed

by 2030 to cover costs of adaptation to climate change (billion

USD/year at present value of 2007)

Household and individual autonomous adaptation measures related

to climate stresses in Southeast Asia

Objectives and some selected targets of the Vietnam National Target

Program to respond to Climate Change between 2010 and 2015

Determining impact (Exposure x Sensitivity)

Determining vulnerability (Impact/Adaptive capacity)

Total number of households and sample size

The relationship between salinity and water level during dry season

in the Mekong Delta (1980-2013)

Tested 390 samples of soil and water salinity in research sites (2014)

Future projected climatic factors under different scenarios of climate

change for the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Views of experts on factors enhancing saline intrusion in the

Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Age of household heads in three research sites

Education of household heads in three research sites

Key livelihood activities in three districts of An Giang, Can Tho,

and Soc Trang

Area and productivity of rice and fish farming in three research sites

Average household income from rice and fish farming in three

Percentage of households facing with saline intrusion impact

The correlation between the degree of saline intrusion and the yield

of rice and fish in Soc Trang

The correlation between the degree of saline intrusion and the yield

of rice and fish in Can Tho

Comparison of rice and fish yield changed in between 2008 and

2014

The correlation between rice or fish yield and salinity level

Comparison of household’s income in 2008 and 2014 and the

percentages of household income loss

Comparison of land area for rice and fish farming in 2008 and 2014

Percentage of households received saline intrusion information

Sources of saline intrusion information received by surveyed

households

Household perception on the degree of saline intrusion impacts

Levels of indicators of exposure to saline intrusion

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of exposure indicators

Mean score of exposure indicators to saline intrusion in all three

research sites

Exposure level of rice and fish farming households to saline

intrusion

Levels of indicators of sensitivity to saline intrusion

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of sensitivity indicators

Mean score of sensitivity indicators to saline intrusion in all three

LIST OF TABLES (cont.)

The percentage of rice and fish farming households having capacity

to cope with saline intrusion in all three research sites

Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of exposure indicators

Mean score of adaptive capacity indicators to saline intrusion in all

three research sites

Adaptive capacity level of rice and fish farming households to saline

intrusion

Future adaptive capacity of rice and fish farming households (in

2030)

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion in all three research sites

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of rice farming households

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of fish farming households

Adaptation methods to saline intrusion of integrated rice and fish

Adaptation options of integrated rice and fish farming group to

saline intrusion in three research sites

Adaptation options to vulnerability of saline intrusion at

The conceptual research framework of vulnerability, impacts and

adaptation to saline intrusion

Sustainable livelihood framework

The intrusion of salinity at 4ppt inland during the dry season of 2014

A hierarchy of vulnerability and vulnerability indices

Community-based vulnerability assessment framework

Saline intrusion impacts and vulnerability assessment process

Major components considered in the baseline and vulnerability

assessment process

Research process, steps, and methods

Electrical Conductivity (µS/cm) used to measure water and soil

salinity

Locations of three research sites

Analytical process

Water level in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in dry season 2014

The average monthly salinity in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam in

2014

Household’s view on factors contributing to saline intrusion

Yearly rainfall tendency

Map of saline intrusion in April 2014 in the Mekong Delta of

Vietnam

Yearly air temperature change

Changes in yearly upstream flow and tide flow

Solar radiation yearly change

Age distribution of household heads in three research sites

Gender of household heads in three research sites

Percentage of household land use in three research sites

Proportions of income-generating activities of households in three

research sites

Percentage of rice and fish farming households at three research sites

facing with different impacts of saline intrusion

Cropping calendar changed in Soc Trang and Can Tho during past

five years

Five assets of community in An Giang

Five assets of community in Can Tho

Five assets of community in Soc Trang

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

and Communities (Australia)

xv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS (cont.)

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background and Justification

Vietnam is one of the top disaster-prone countries in the world and the future projected climate change will have significant effects on socioeconomic development

of the country According to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), the coastal regions of Vietnam are most likely

to be impacted by sea level rise (SLR) The Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (2009) simulated a range of alternative climate scenarios for Vietnam and stated that sea level would rise approximately 30 cm by 2050 and up to 75 cm by 2100

Seventy percent of the country’s population live in areas subject to water-related natural

disasters (Ninh, 2007) According to the report on Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) in Vietnam of the World Bank Group (2010), the vulnerability to climate change, especially to sea level rise and saline intrusion of households was highest in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam (Table 1.1)

Table 1.1 Vulnerability to climate change of different regions of Vietnam

Region North

-west

North -east

Red River Delta

North Central Coast

South Central Coast

Central Highlands

South- east

Mekong River Delta

(Source: Adapted from EACC (2010))

(Categories ranked from 0 to 4 (low to severe exposure))

Nguyen Huu Tri Introduction / 2

The increasing sea level rise contributes considerably to the prevalence of saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (Figure 1.1)

Figure 1.1 The incidence and severity of saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta of

Vietnam

(Source: Southern Institution for Water Resource Planning of Vietnam, 2010)

It was predicted that the sea level rise could expose around 45% of the area

to extreme salinization by 2030 (Pettengell, 2010) The salinity from 1ppt to 4ppt encroached up to 60 km into the Mekong Delta Nearly two million ha of rice land has been affected by saline intrusion, threatening the national food security and affecting millions of local people (Hanh and Furukawa, 2007; Hoc, 2009) Agriculture, natural fisheries, and aquaculture are at risk This ongoing trend has significant impacts on millions of people who are very poor and live primarily on agricultural and aquatic

production They have limited options to turn to other sources of income (Wassmann et al., 2004) Over approximate 1.77 million hectare (ha) or about 45% of area of the

Mekong Delta in the dry season is strongly affected by saline intrusion (Tri, 2012) The saline intrusion has led to the decrease in arable land and failure of crops (IPCC, 1990)

In the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, there are more than 3.6 million ha of agricultural land including 2.6 million ha of rice and fish farming and 0.54 million ha

of shrimp farming The food production is not only for domestic consumption, but also for export Agricultural sector is providing food for nearly 18 million people, approximately 27% population of the country, and contributes to over 90% of rice export

(Thanh et al., 2009) The Mekong Delta is extremely important to socioeconomic

development of Vietnam

Agriculture remains one of the most important sectors in Vietnam, contributing 24% to the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 30% to the total export value and employing about 60% of the population In the Mekong Delta, this sector employs about 76% of the local population (Lensink and Nam, 2008) The Mekong Delta contributes 45.8% to national agricultural food production, 50.5% of total paddy production each year, and up to 80% of rice exports Meanwhile, aquaculture production

in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam is contributing 60% of total values of national

aquaculture production (Be et al., 2007) However, nearly 4 million ha of agricultural

land and the population of 18 million living primarily on agricultural production are

suffering from the consequences of climate change and sea level rise (Carew-Reid, 2008; IUCN-Vietnam, 2010)

Agriculture and aquaculture have been considerably affected due to the increased salinity in recent years The saline intrusion has increasingly caused problems

to irrigation management, making it impossible to sustain the desired crop productivity (Kirby and Mainuddin, 2009) The prevalence of salinity has implications to local poor

communities while the effective water management mechanism and existing pro–poor

policies do not sufficiently meet their livelihood supporting demands They are actually the most vulnerable as they have limited adaptive capacities and are more dependent on water for food production and other economic activities In addition, they do not have necessary supports and additional inputs from outside sources to help change livelihoods

under climate change (Wassmann et al., 2004) They take risks themselves and any

failure of production investment will lead to the debts and poverty

Nguyen Huu Tri Introduction / 4

Consequences of saline intrusion are not only increasing pressure to people’s livelihoods, but also leading to unstable food security People’s livelihoods are based on water resources of the Mekong River Saline intrusion has significant effects

on the integrity of ecological systems in the Mekong Region, including aquatic species, water resources, and livelihoods of millions of inhabitants dependent on aquaculture and agriculture production Studies showed that 70% of catches from the Mekong River were migratory fish (International River, 2009) Due to sea level rise, the loss of fisheries was estimated at 476 million USD/year, regardless of floodplain and coastal fish catches (Mekong River Commission, 2010)

The vulnerability is based on the magnitude of impacts, resilience, susceptibility and adaptive capacity (Kulpraneet, 2012) The capacity of adaptation to sea level rise includes ability to change agricultural practices, develop desalination techniques, improve drainage facilities, establish setback policies for new development areas, and many others There are numerous methods to adapt to sea level rise, and there

is no single set of adaptation that is universally appropriate At a very basic level, the success of adaptation depends on the flexibility and effectiveness of the measures, such

as the ability to meet objectives and local needs given range of future climate scenarios (Smit and Pilifosova, 2001)

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2007) estimated the global cost of adaptation to sea level rise (saline intrusion), particularly of agriculture sector, at 14 billion USD annually for developed and developing countries

in 2030 (see Table 1.2)

The impacts of the saline intrusion on the household’s livelihood in the Mekong Delta need thoughtful research While many studies have been conducted in the Mekong Delta, none was particularly centered on this issue Besides, most people in the Mekong Delta have not understood thoroughly about saltwater intrusion inland (Renaud and Kuenzer, 2012) They, therefore, may not have right attitude to adaptation Most importantly, the process of salinization tends to be increasing at a significant pace and many households have been deprived of capitals and properties that have been invested in their production Many of them have incurred mental and physical distress since such loss seems to be irreversible They also lack adequate capitals and capacity

to turn to other alternative livelihoods or access possible employment opportunities

Table 1.2 Estimation of sectorial annual investment and financial flow needed by 2030

to cover costs of adaptation to climate change (billion USD/year at present values of 2007)

Sector Global cost Developed

countries

Developing countries

7

2 Not estimated

7 6-88

7

9

5

4 2-41

1.2 Conceptual Research Framework

The conceptual research framework was designed to connect all aspects of study and outline possible causes and effects It was adapted from the assessment of impact and adaptation to climate change models of UNEP (2001), GEF (2007), and IPCC (2007) The framework expressed the linkages of the impact of saline intrusion (in the Mekong upstream, midstream and downstream), capacity of household and community adaptation, the strategic adaptation options at all levels (e.g local, provincial and regional), and vulnerability (see Figure 1.2)

The research framework looked at the climate change threats in various forms The impact of saline intrusion was and is threatening the Mekong Delta,

Nguyen Huu Tri Introduction / 6

especially in agriculture and aquaculture Rice and fish farming, in particular, are the most impacted sector Effects on livelihoods of households in two major sectors–rice and fish farming are different due to the distance along the Mekong River of Vietnam (i.e different impacts on upstream, midstream and downstream) leading to different response, adaptations and vulnerability

Figure 1.2 The conceptual research framework of vulnerability, impacts and adaptation

to saline intrusion (modified from UNEP (2001), GEF (2007) and IPCC (2007))

Macro and Micro Situation/Climate Change Threats

Past-present-future climate change Climate change scenarios in the Mekong Delta

IMPACTS (I)

Exposure, sensitivity, physical,

ecological, socio-cultural,

socioeconomic impacts

VULNERABILITY (V) = f (I, A)

FUTURE PROJECTED IMPACTS

Economic/social/

environment potential impacts

Saline Intrusion in the Mekong: Upstream, Midstream and Downstream; Household Livelihood

Agriculture sector (rice farming and fish farming)

COPING, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY,

ADAPTATION (A)

Households, communities, stakeholders

at all levels–local, national, regional

Household Adaptation Options

For preparedness, mitigation, adaptive capacity building and knowledge transfer in the Mekong Delta

This research results would provide insight of impacts at household levels, adaptive capacity which mainly focusing on the ability to maintain the production systems, adaptation options at all levels, and finally the household vulnerability

In the future, vulnerability of household livelihood will increase because of the increasing saline intrusion Vulnerability can be lowered if adaptation is higher Therefore, this research studied how rice and fish farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam would be vulnerable and how they would be able to adapt to the future saline intrusion Analysis of household adaptation options would enhance the understanding how households would use and combine their resources to meet short-term and long-term needs for mitigation and adaption Perception and adaptive capacity

of households in different areas along the Mekong River (downstream, midstream and upstream) would be important and useful for planners and policy makers to identify programs and activities to improve livelihoods by increasing alternatives in order to reduce livelihood vulnerability to saline intrusion

1.3 Research Objectives

This research aimed at the insight of the vulnerability to saline intrusion of and the adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in different ecological zones of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam The specific objectives were as follows

1 Analyse the impact, adaptation and vulnerability to saline intrusion of rice and fish farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

2 Analyse and determine adaptation options for rice and fish farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam under the light of future saline intrusion

1.4 Key Research Questions

The following questions were investigated in relation to the specific objectives:

1 How did and how will saline intrusion affect the socio-economics of the rice and fish farming households in the past, present and future?

Nguyen Huu Tri Introduction / 8

2 How sensitive are household livelihoods in different ecological zones of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam to past, present and future saline intrusion?

3 How have the households adapted their livelihood to saline intrusion, and what has been the adaptive capacity level?

4 What would be possible adaptation options for decreasing vulnerability

to saline intrusion of households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam?

1.5 Scope of Research

This research focused on the impacts of saline intrusion to rice and fish farming households in three different parts represented by three provinces of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam These provinces locate in upstream (not yet affected by the present saline intrusion), midstream (firstly affected by saline intrusion since 2002) and downstream (already strongly and increasingly affected by saline intrusion since 1970s) The research focused on two sectors of household livelihoods, i.e rice and fish farming Three different groups of households were targeted, i.e rice farming households, fish farming households, and integrated rice and fish farming households The analysis on the impacts of saline intrusion was based on the data of the past five years (2008-2013), and the present (2014) To determine the future impacts and household adaptation options, the research used the climate change scenario of Vietnam for 2030 of the Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE) combining with the primary data collection at household level

1.6 Research Originally and Expected Results

An integrated method to insight of vulnerability of rice and fish farming households in the Mekong Delta to past, present and future saline intrusion was applied The innovated approaches included the vulnerability assessment methodology which integrated Sustainable Livelihood Framework with the evaluation of household adaptation options and the comparative analysis of upstream, midstream, and downstream household impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability

The research results will contribute to the development of adaptation strategies to climate change, in particular, saline intrusion The methodology taken into account of socioeconomic and environment impacts using social science approach will

be applicable for other areas, nation-wide and region-wide The results of this research will also provide information and empirical evidence for political leaders and local development planners as a basis for program development and policy formulation related to sustainable household livelihood to prepare for saline intrusion

Nguyen Huu Tri Literature Rev iews / 10

CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEWS

This chapter reviews theories and concepts which relate to the vulnerability, adaptation, impacts of climate change, saline intrusion and adaptive capacity which are important for household livelihood This chapter compiles and compares related studies, knowledge and ideas relevant to this research

2.1 Theories and Concepts

2.1.1 Vulnerability

Vulnerability is a concept that has been used in different research (Adger, 2006; Smit and Wandel, 2006) but there is no consensus on its meaning Depending on the research areas, it has been exclusively applied to the societal subsystem, to the ecological, natural, or biophysical subsystem It is the ability to anticipate, cope with, resist to and recover from disasters (Kelly and Adger, 2000) According to IPCC (2011), the concept of vulnerability, obviously implies “the extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system”, it depends not only on a system’s sensitivity, but also on its ability to adapt to new climate conditions The vulnerability is described as a condition

of susceptibility shaped by exposure, sensitivity and resilience (Ekins et al., 2003;

Brooks, 2003) Vulnerability means capacity of an individual or group to anticipate, cope with, resist to and recover from the impact of a natural or man-made hazard (IPCC, 2007) It also is undertaken as a set of conditions and processes that determines the susceptibility of humans or human systems to be adversely affected by a shock or hazard (Brooks, 2003)

Vulnerability is the propensity of exposed elements to suffer adverse effects

when impacted by a hazard (Cannon, 1994, 2006; IPCC, 2012; Janssen et al., 2006)

Vulnerability as defined by Department for International Development (DFID) of

United Kingdom (1999) stems from the negative external threats such as flood, drought, saline intrusion, storms and seasonal shifts The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2001) defined vulnerability as “aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environment, social, economic and political exposure to a range

of harmful perturbations” Although vulnerability is defined to characterize the interaction between the hazard event and the system that it will influence, it does not mean that the vulnerability is dependent on the hazard events (Brooks, 2003) Vulnerability can be internally created and changed by organizational, social and economic factors which usually are not dependent on hazard events in time and space Vulnerability directs attention from hazard events to social, economic and organizational factors which occur before hazard processes become evident Kelly and Adger (2000) argued that certain factors could damage a system, and make system wounded and vulnerable to the attack of hazard events, so these factors can be considered as the constraint conditions for the system to respond to the hazard events

Those views of vulnerability incorporate the same essential concepts: exposure, sensitivity and adaptation In this research, vulnerability was used to describe the risk of adverse effects of saline intrusion experienced by households and communities, that helped understand the extent to which the trend of saline intrusion forced households to change their livelihood Choices of change would depend on the resource base used by households The responding processes and choices would lead to

a new vulnerability level but still needed to be managed under the uncertainty and constraints

2.1.2 Coping and Adaptation

According to IPCC (2007), adaptation is defined as a change in structure, function, or behavior by which a species or individual improves its chance of survival

in a specific environment It is frequently used as an analytical concept to analyze the ways in which people cope with and try to reduce the effects of climate change Scientists agree that the degree to which the system is impacted by climate change

depends much on its ability to adapt (Mendelsohn, 2000; Smit et al., 2001; Smith et al.,

2000; UNDP, 2008) Adaptation can decrease damage significantly (Burton, 1997) Without adaptation to changes, sickness, famine, and forced migration will be outcome

Nguyen Huu Tri Literature Rev iews / 12

(MERCY CORPS, 2007) Olmos (2001) argued similarly that adaptation to climate change constituted a major policy concern in countries affected by climate change

Adaptation is a complex process which consists of different elements: the characteristics of stress, the characteristics of systems, scales and adaptive responses

(Bryant et al., 2000) The process of adaptation to climate change can occur on different scales ranging from individual, regional, national, and global settings (Bryant et al.,

2000) According to Fabrice and Claudia (2011), the adaptation measures can be grouped into (1) technological measures (e.g construction of dykes, dams, sluice gates, canals, water treatment, freshwater storage, de-salinization, early warning systems, provision of adaptable crop varieties); (2) ecological measures (e.g environmentally adapted utilization of resources, establishment of protection zones, natural wetland conservation); (3) educational measures (e.g climate change related education, strengthening awareness of the values of ecosystems, information sharing and dissemination); and (4) political measures (e.g adaptation policy, preparedness plan)

Conceptualism of coping and adaptation has gained substantial prominence

in scientific and political discourse revolving around natural hazards and climate change Adaptation is often the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2007)

In many cases, adaptation measures are reactive and short-term (e.g coping strategies) which can limit the scope for adaptation in the longer term (IPCC, 2012; Bohle, 2001) Coping is known as a short-term, often reactive, response to deal with impacts during or after hazard strike to minimize the impacts of a disaster Coping capacity is known as ability of people, households, organizations and systems, using available skills and resources, to face and manage adverse conditions, emergencies or disasters (UNISDR, 2009) Conversely, adaptation has a longer time frame and notion

of planned, strategic, oriented targets and coordinated actions While coping measures are mainly undertaken within the existing frame of processes and structure in a system without altering the principles of that system operation, adaptation relates to adjustment

of system components, processes and structures in response to experienced hazards or climate change impacts in order to minimize harm (IPCC, 2007)

2.1.3 Sustainable Livelihood Framework

Sustainable livelihood is defined by the Department for International Development of United Kingdom (1999) as a way of thinking about the objectives, scope and priorities for development, in order to enhance progress in poverty elimination According to Chambers and Conway (1992), livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims and access) and activities required for a means of living Livelihood is sustainable if it can cope with and recover from stress and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, provide sustainable opportunities for the next generation, and contribute net benefits at the local and global levels and in the long and short term Sustainable livelihood is approached as a way to improve understanding of the livelihoods of poor people It draws on the main factors that affect poor people's livelihoods and the typical relationships between these factors

It can be used in planning new development activities and in assessing the contribution that existing activities have made to sustaining livelihoods (Scoones, 1998; DFID, 1999; Michelle and Ruth, 2002)

The Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF) was adapted from a model developed by the Department for International Development of United Kingdom (1999) and used as a tool to improve understanding of livelihoods, particularly of the poor and the work of poverty reduction Sustainable Livelihood Framework is an attractive model and has been widely adopted by donors and Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in relation to development (Carney, 1999; IUCN, 2007; ODI, 2000; UNDP, 1999; DFID, 1999) because it provides a simple but well-developed way of thinking about a complex issue and can be applied as a conceptual framework or as a practical tool for designing programs and evaluation strategies (see Figure 2.1)

Sustainable Livelihood Framework is based on understanding people's access to assets that typically include natural, human, social, physical and financial capitals Other assets are increasingly being used in the analysis, such as information, cultural/traditional and institutional assets (Cochrane, 2006; Odero, 2008) Access to these assets are analyzed in relation to the context of livelihood (including climate, demography, history and macro-economic conditions), institutional and social processes (organizational arrangements and land tenure), and the livelihood strategies that are used

Nguyen Huu Tri Literature Rev iews / 14

(combination of activities people choose to undertake to achieve their livelihood goals)

for a livelihood to be truly sustainable (Ekins et al., 2003)

Figure 2.1 Sustainable Livelihood Framework (adapted from DFID, 1999)

The framework provides the basis for understanding how livelihood strategies can build adaptive capacity to enable people to better cope with change, and diversify their activities to increase resilience to unforeseen future change The framework helps explain how livelihoods adapt to shocks, seasonality and economic or resource trends, and how vulnerability may be reduced, for examples, through building social capital, increasing the flow of information about new technologies or by improving access rights to alternative grazing areas during drought (Adger, 2003; Kelly

and Adger, 2000; Smit and Pilifosova, 2001; Yohe and Tol, 2002; Ziervogel et al.,

2006) The asset-based framework helps identify ways capital can be used to cope in the short-term, or ways capital can be used to prepare for future problems and/or how capital assets can be substituted to adapt to changing circumstances Complementary adaptation strategies based on available assets that provide livelihood options can be developed using overlapping combinations and substitutions of capital assets Applied to climate change issues, the framework recognizes that different stakeholders are affected by climate change in different ways and have different capacities to adapt, depending on

their reliance on and access to capital assets (Ziervogel et al., 2006) The framework

emphasizes the need to address the underlying causes of weak adaptive capacity, such

as the inability to access inequitably distributed resources (Kelly and Adger, 2000) This recognizes that it is often access to capital assets that is most limiting to livelihoods, rather than the total stock of an asset that is theoretically available To alter access to these assets may require adaptation of the formal and informal institutions that constrain and shape social behavior and the institutional rules that affect negotiation and the

performance of power (Pelling et al., 2008)

2.1.3.1 Livelihood assets: the word “Livelihood” is used in many fields, but the term used in the Department of International Development

“Sustainable Livelihood Guidance Sheet” is as follows: “A livelihood comprises the capacities, assets and activities required for a mean of living A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capacities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base” (Chamber and Conway, 1992) Livelihood does not just mean the activities that people carry out to earn a living It means all the different elements that contribute to, or affect, their ability to ensure a living for themselves and their households (FAO, 2001) Livelihood assets are assets owned, controlled, claimed, or by some other means accessed by the households These assets “may be described as stocks

of capital that can be utilized directly or indirectly, to generate the means of survival of the households” (Ellis, 2000; FAO, 2001) The division of five categories of assets can provide a useful starting point for a household livelihood analysis as well as a guide, which can help investigators gain a more complete picture of the household and its livelihood assets (FAO, 2001) The specific capitals of household are as follows

 Natural capital comprises the land, water, and biological

resources that are utilized by people to generate means of survival (Ellis, 2000) It is clearly important to those who derive all or part of their livelihoods from natural resource–based activities such as farming and fishing (DFID, 1999) Natural capital in this research included water and land which directly affected rice and fish farming In term of natural processes (e.g temperature, fire, flood, earthquake, saline intrusion, storm), there is a close relationship between natural capital and the vulnerability context

in which many of the shocks devastate the livelihoods of the poor (DFID, 1999)

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 Physical capital comprises what are created by economic

production processes Buildings, irrigation canals, roads, tools, machines, are examples

of physical assets (Ellis, 2000) Physical capital in this research included rivers, canals, dykes, sluice gates and irrigation system A given state of infrastructures and physical properties will bring households advantages or disadvantages

 Human capital, at the household level, is a product of the

amount and quality of labor available with its education, skills, and health (DFID, 1999; Ellis, 2000) The poor have their own labor as key livelihood assets (FAO, 2001) Human capital is increased by investment in education and training by the skills

acquired through pursuing one or more occupations (Ellis, 2000) Human capital in this

research included labor force, education of household heads, and skills of farming and fishing practices Emphasizing education and skills, it is clear that gaining improvement

in human capital is not easy and quick, especially to the peasants who are confronted by shocks In fact, both subjective and objective factors play a role in household decision-making in terms of investment in education and learning a skill Accordingly, this choice

by itself is a process of building or improving the household’s capacity

 Financial capital refers to stocks of money to which the

household has access This is likely to be saving, and access to credit in the form of loans (Ellis, 2000) Financial capital for household livelihoods sometimes is not only in form of money Financial capital in this research included household’s saving money and credit, financial supports of association and government Each household converts

it into forms of productive physical assets such as breeding facilities, mechanics, traffic vehicles, etc that depend on choices of investment

 Social capital is defined by Moser (1998) as “reciprocity

within communities and between households based on trust deriving from social ties” According to DFID (1999), the importance of social capital seems to be considered as

“resource of last resort”–a buffer that can help households cope with a shock and a safety

net to ensure survival during periods of intensive insecurity Social capital included opportunity for adaptation training, community indigenous knowledge, and social networks In social networks, households develop knowledge and share that knowledge

2.1.3.2 Household sustainable livelihood: household refers to the farmer and other members of the family; it is both a consumption and production

unit, and is a social organization Households are often under the management of a single person, but sometimes operate collectively Members normally live and sleep in the same place, share meals, and divide household duties Household sustainable livelihood

is capacity of household to cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain

or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, without undermining

the natural resource base (Morse et al., 2002) The sustainable livelihoods approach put

the livelihoods of households at the central of analysis and actions It focuses on the main factors that affect household livelihoods and the typical relationships between these factors It is a means of stimulating thought and analysis, and it needs to be adapted and elaborated depending on the situation A household bases its livelihood on the five types of assets above that they own or can access, to build livelihood activities involving income generating and improving capacity for their sustainable livelihood

Sustainable Livelihood Framework was used as a method of community intervention aiming at building community livelihood in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (Sanh, 2003) The SLF emphasized the capabilities and potentialities that existed within resource user communities and granted a necessary focus on social relation, government

processes and institutions contributing to livelihoods (Ferrol-Schulte et al., 2013)

Households mobilized five assets of the community to improve living standard of households at community level (Morse, 2013)

Sustainable Livelihood Framework emphasized the participation of individual community members in a process of community building, planning and

decision-making at community level (Goodman et al., 1998) Household has been

considered the productive and organizational capacity portion of community development organizations (Glickman and Servon, 1997) According to World Bank (1998), SLF was applied as the process by which individuals, groups, organizations, institutions and societies increased their abilities in community planning and also emphasized the important role of SLF to support and build action plans in the local

community consistent with national goals Recently, Horsley et al (2015) gave a very

useful concept of SLF at local/regional scales that was considered as the indicators for

decision-making in the context of regional development Horsley et al (2015) applied

the five capitals theory to provide the potential to be further developed in applied

research by more focus on its interaction with other elements of the SLF, such as the

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vulnerability context, transforming processes and structures, livelihood strategies and outcomes Depending on five capitals, SLF could monitor impacts over time and space

and plan for community, especially stakeholder groups (Franks et al., 2013; Moran et al., 2013)

To sum up, the SLF actually played an important role to help community recognizing their capitals which support decision-making process of community or household livelihood Given the key focus of the research upon the local community and its role to mitigate the impacts of saline intrusion, SLF concerned how local capacity organized and mobilized community assets effectively for the benefit of households in the community Particularly, the SLF focused on how impacts of saline intrusion caused households to change their livelihoods and it was integrated into household adaptation options for preparedness, mitigation, adaptive capacity building, and knowledge transfer

at community level and its applicability in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

2.2 Climate Change in the World Context and Vietnam

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years Climate change is becoming increasingly apparent It is happening and is largely caused

by human induced greenhouse gas emissions (Klein et al., 2007) In specific, the climate

change is caused by factors that include oceanic processes, biotic processes, variation

in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics and volcanic eruptions, and induced alterations of the natural world (IPCC, 1990) These factors are driven by socio-economic development patterns characterized by economic growth, technology, population and governance At the same time, these patterns also influence people’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, which will in turn influence socio-

human-economic development and thereby future greenhouse gas emissions (Markandya et al.,

2002; Sperling, 2003)

According to the United Nations Environment Programme (2001), climate change is the most challenging environmental problem facing the international community One of top aspects, the sea level rise is mainly induced by the thermal expansion of ocean water which has occurred frequently in geologic times (Liu and

Milliman, 2004) and can be aggravated by melting of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Cap The sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm annually between 1961 and 2003, and

at a faster average rate of 3.1 mm annually between 1993 and 2003 (IPCC, 2007) From

1993 to 2003, the rates in some regions were up to several times the global mean rise, while in some regions, sea level fell The main contributor to sea level rise in last decade was thermal expansion (accounting for 57%) followed by melting of glaciers and ice cap (accounting for 28%) and the loss of polar ice sheets (IPCC, 2007)

According to the Special Report on Emission Scenario of IPCC (2007), projections for the period 2090-2099 put global average sea level rise at 0.18-0.59 m relative to the period 1980-1999 In recent years, a rapid decline in ice mass balance from both Greenland and Antarctica has been observed, and it is predicted that sea level

rise by 2010 could reach 200 mm (Allison et al., 2009) According to Ericson et al

(2006), the effective sea level rise in Asia was of 4.6 mm per year on average For Northern America, South America, and Europe 4.5, 3.5, and 2.6 mm are expected respectively, while in Africa and Oceania 4.4 and 10 mm are expected annually, respectively over the next fifty years

Many researches showed that island regions were seriously affected by sea level rise A recent analysis focusing on 4,500 islands suggested that 6-19% of these islands could be entirely submerged with a 1-6 m sea level rise, threatening

over 300 endemic species with extinction (Bellard et al., 2013a) A similar study

in the Pacific and South East Asia predicted that 15-62% of 12,900 islands could

be completely inundated (Wetzel et al., 2012) Globally, a recent study of over 1,200

islands in all oceans found comparable results, suggesting a possibility of 6-12% of

islands worldwide being entirely submerged (Bellard et al., 2013b) This would amount

to a total loss of 10,000-20,000 of the 180,000 islands worldwide with many more suffering partial losses

The 21st century witnesses the one-meter sea level rise (Church et al., 2001)

According to IPCC (1990), Vietnam, as well as other countries in South Asia and the Pacific Islands, are suffered from 1 m rise in sea level The sea level in Vietnam has increased 5 cm within the past thirty years and is expected to rise up to 9 cm in 2010; 33 cm in 2050; 45 cm in 2070; and 1 m in 2100 (Ninh, 2007; Hanh and Furukawa,

2007; Warrick et al., 1996) The sea level rise scenarios presented by the Ministry of

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Natural Resources and Environment showed that 90% of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta’s surface area would be inundated (MONRE, 2003), and this would place heavy burdens on rural poor communities who are primarily dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods The government, therefore, has launched the “National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change” which will develop sufficient adaptive policies and planning It is important to learn and improve the knowledge of making

adaptation decisions (Adger et al., 2002; Nicholls and Klein, 2000; Smit et al., 2001)

2.3 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations

2.3.1 Climate Change Impacts in Asia

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) states that Southeast Asia is expected to be seriously affected by the adverse impacts of climate change since most economies are relying on agriculture and natural resources along the long coast line Southeast Asia would be hard-hit with expected displacement of 1 per

10 of the population and a loss of 10% GDP (Richardson, 2008) Out of the climate change stresses, the sea level rise phenomenon is highly recognized as having greater impacts on coastal areas where large proportion of populations of many developing countries inhabit Sea level along Southeast Asia has been rising by 3.1 mm per year over the past decade, compared with 1.7 to 2.4 mm per year over the 20th century (Lu, UNDP-GEF, 2007 cited in Kulpraneet, 2012) According to IPCC (1990), if the sea level rose up to 1 m, 15% of Bangladesh would be inundated by sea water, meanwhile, the largest cities of China and Nigeria and 20% of the Egyptian population would fall into the similar plight If the sea level rose up to 1-5 m, eighty-four developing

countries would be impacted (Dasgupta et al., 2007) Projected sea level rise can flood

the residence of millions of people living in the low lying areas of Asia such as Thailand, Bangladesh, India, China, and Vietnam

In Thailand, for example, the national GDP could be reduced by 0.36% to 0.69% (approximately 300 to 600 million USD) by loss of land due to sea level rise between 50 cm and 100 cm (IPCC 4th Assessment Report; cited in WWF, 2007) In recent years, the sea level rise seriously increased about 3-4 mm per year which was

dramatically higher than global average, especially at the Chao Phraya Delta Saline

intrusion had traveled into Bangkok’s coastal aquifers (Trisirisatayawong et al, 2011;

cited in Kuenzer and Renaud 2012)

Impacts of sea level rise include increased coastal erosion, higher surge flooding, inhibition of primary production processes, more extensive coastal inundation, changes in surface water quality and groundwater characteristics, increased loss of properties and coastal habitats, increased flood risk and potential loss of life, loss

storm-of non–monetary cultural resources and values, impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through declines in soil and water quality, and loss of tourism, recreation, and

transportation functions, especially for river delta areas and island countries (Huang et al., 2004) The sea level rise has high potential threats to alter ecosystems, habitats in

coastal regions and can substantially affect humans who live in coastal areas in Asia The Tyndall Center of Climate Change Research in United Kingdom indicated that Asia would be the region most dangerously affected by sea level rise This is due to having vast coastline, large number of mega deltas, big port cities and a very dense population

A one-meter rise in sea level would cause the displacement of probably over 100 million people and loss of over 500 billion USD of GDP annually (Brooks, 2003)

The sea level rise impacts on islands are significantly happening due to the current scenarios of sea level rise from 2 to 3m in the following centuries (Bellard

et al., 2013; Levermann et al., 2013) Non-saline habitats will be destroyed because

the frequency and amplitude of seawater floods will increase by the greater tidal ranges that commonly relate to climate change Consequently, the sea level rise will also increase coastal erosion and saline water intrusion will lead to habitat loss further inland

in the Pacific and South East Asia (Wetzel et al., 2012)

2.3.2 Climate Change and Saline Intrusion Impacts in Vietnam and Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Vietnam is the country most seriously impacted by climate change (ADB, 2009) Vietnam has the natural land area of 320,000 km2 and the coastline of 3,260 km Endowed with rich natural assets, its coastal areas possess favorable conditions and competitive opportunities to develop the economy and provide livelihoods for local people (Michel and Pandya, 2010) According to Chaudhry and Ruysschaert (2007),

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approximately 58% of livelihoods in coastal areas are based on agriculture, fishing and aquaculture Nevertheless, these regions are frequently being at risk of climate change The continual acceleration of extreme weather events has obviously caused considerable impacts on the livelihood of poor population Climate change impacts in Vietnam are mainly manifested through sea level rise which leads to increase of flood risk from the ocean, particularly during storm surges in recent years The data recorded from tidal gauges along the Vietnam coasts showed that sea level rise was at the rate of 3 mm per year during the period from 1993 to 2008 (MONRE, 2009) It is projected that 74% of the population of Vietnam and economic activities that concentrate in the coastal plains and river deltas would be most affected by sea level rise (Carew-Reid, 2008; Dasgupta, 2007) The sea level rise scenarios presented by the Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (2003) show that, 90% of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta’s surface area will be inundated by 2030, which would place heavy burdens on rural poor communities who are primarily dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods According to Carew-Reid (2008), the number of poor people is projected to increase substantially from 21.2% to 35% by 2010 It is worth noting that one-meter rise in sea level would affect approximately 5% of Vietnam’s land area, 11% of the population, 7% of

agriculture, and reduce GDP by 10% (Dasgupta et al., 2007)

The climate change has contributed to detrimental effects such as coastal erosion, changing flood patterns and extent, saline intrusion, which became significant threats in Vietnam Red River Delta of Vietnam is threatened by floods, storm surges and drought events while Mekong River Delta of Vietnam is strongly affected by sea level rise and saline intrusion (MONRE, 2009) The Second Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) shows that the Mekong Region is the most likely to be vulnerable spots to climate change, in particular, saline intrusion impacts Saline intrusion infiltrates further inland into rivers and canals, as well as soils and ground water aquifers and has significant damage on agricultural land, drinking water, ecosystem services, functions and biodiversity, and reduces the country’s GDP due to the loss of household livelihood According to Kunezer and Renaud (2011), the saline intrusion impacted on agriculture production, especially to crop productivity The yield will be damaged about 10% for each 1 0C increase in growing season resulting in economic loss and expected inland migration

The saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam occurs during the dry season from January to April since there is no rainfall at all The lack of rainfall in the dry season coupled with the interactive impacts of the sea and river dynamics gives rise

to the saline intrusion At the same time, the weak flow discharge to the sea supplemented by high tide level pushes the seawater from estuaries deep towards inland and pervades extensively with different salinity concentration (My and Vuong, 2006)

The saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta was influenced by the mainstream

reverse flow and tides (Thanh et al., 2009) According to Tri (2012), in dry season from

December to June, the average discharge of the Mekong River is about 6,000 m3/s From March to April, it is at its lowest, at approximately 2,000 m3/s; this leads to saline intrusion far inland The tide is the main factor affecting the ratio of flow distribution in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam The tide regime of the East Sea is of an unsteady semi-diurnal type with two peaks and two lows as well as two flood tides and two low tides

in a month The amplitude of tide is about 2.5 to 3.0 m in March and April When upstream flow decreases, the tide can have effect up to 60-70 km from the estuaries of the Mekong River Delta that means saline intrusion heading far inland It was forecasted that by the year 2010 onwards the Mekong Delta would confront with the critical shortage of fresh water due to the intensive utilization of water resource for agriculture production of upstream countries Additionally, the abrupt decrease of downstream flow

of the Mekong River in dry seasons would pose the potential threats for the water-based economy activities in the Mekong Delta, which would exacerbate and speed up the process of salinization in the area

According to official records, the saline intrusion infiltrated 7 km up the Mekong River Delta with high salinity (> 4ppt) in the 1970s During the past four decades, the saline intrusion infiltrated about 60-70 km up the rivers from the sea In

2014, the salinity encroached inland up to 70 km during dry season Figure 2.2 showed that the salinity level increased significantly late March and levelled off until mid-May

at 4ppt and how far saline intrusion affected along the Mekong River of Vietnam The saline intrusion was reduced, shortening the salinity distance accordingly when the rainy came on early June The commonly highest salinity levels recorded at most study sites fall mostly into late March and early April

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Figure 2.2 The intrusion of salinity at 4ppt inland during the dry season of 2014

(Source: Southern Hydrometeorology Station, 2014)

The consequences of saline intrusion had damaged 500 ha of rice and 40 ha

of freshwater fish areas accounting for 4 million USD in the 1970s (DARD-Soc Trang, 2014) About 100,000 ha of rice and 3,000 ha of freshwater fish accounted for 1.5 billion USD in 2014 (DARD-Can Tho and DARD-Soc Trang, 2014) Saline intrusion would affect about 600,000 ha of rice and 70,000 ha of freshwater fish areas accounting for 10 billion USD under the scenario of climate change and sea level rise of Vietnam (MONRE, 2009) These consequences not only harmed individuals, households and communities, but also had effects at regional, national and global levels In the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, environmental changes combined with economic and policy drivers entice farmers to shift from rice production system to aquaculture Saline intrusion have seriously affected the backbone of economy and harmed millions of people living in the Mekong River Delta This effect will be more serious under the climate change scenario

of Vietnam 2030 The saltwater will cover about two-thirds of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and infiltrate into the upstream of the Mekong Delta

2.3.3 Existing Adaptation in Asia

Adaptation can decrease vulnerability to the climate change (Fabrice and Claudia, 2011) According to the United State Agency for International Development (2010), the level of knowledge and perception on climate change impacts, vulnerability