Assessing weather forecasting needs of small scale marine fishers for climate change adaptation and their willingness to pay for improved weather forecasting services

i 1.96‘ MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY TRAN THI THANH HIEN ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF SMALL-SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND

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1.96‘

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF SMALL-SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTING SERVICES: CASE STUDY OF VINH NGUYEN WARD,

NHA TRANG CITY

MASTER THESIS

KHANH HOA – 2019

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF SMALL-SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTING SERVICES: CASE STUDY OF VINH NGUYEN WARD,

NHA TRANG CITY

MASTER THESIS Major:

Topic allocation Decision

Decision on establishing the

Committee

Defense date:

Supervisors:

Prof MARGRETHE AANESEN

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UNDERTAKING

I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Assessing Weather Forecasting Needs Of

Small-Scale Marine Fishers For Climate Change Adaptation And Their Willingness To Pay For Improved Weather Forecasting Services: Case Study Of Vinh Nguyen Ward, Nha Trang City” is my own work The work has not been

presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted

Khanh Hoa, Date 29 month 5 year 2019

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I would like to express the deepest appreciation to:

- Nha Trang University and University of Tromso for giving me an opportunity

to study the Norhed Master’s Program in Marine-based Ecosystem Management and Climate Change

- All Lectures and Professors of Norhed Master’s Program and Nha Trang for generous contribution towards my academic sojourn

- And Faculty and Staff/Department Economic and Management of Trang University for helping and giving best conditions me finish my thesis

My special thanks go to Prof Margrethe Aanesen and Dr Hoang Phuc Lam for the continuous support of my Master study and research for your patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge Your guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis

Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family, cohort 3 classmates, colleagues, fishers and People’s Committee of Vinh Nguyen ward for supporting me throughout writing this thesis

Thank you all!

Khanh Hoa, Date 29 month 5 year 2019

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

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Contents

UNDERTAKING iii

ACKNOWLEDGMENT iv

LIST OF SYMBOLS iv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS v

ABSTRACT 1

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 2

1.1 Background Information 2

1.2 Research Objectives 5

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 6

2.1 Impacts of climate change on the Small-Scale Marine fisheries 6

2.1.1 Marine ecosystem impacts 6

2.1.2 Impacts on Small-Scale Marine fishers livelihoods 6

2.2 Impacts of extreme weather events to fishing activities 7

2.4 Weather forecast and climate change adaptation 7

2.5 Vietnam weather forecast and transmitting system 8

2.6 Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to estimate Willingness To Pay for weather and climate services 10

2.7 Conceptual framework 11

CHAPTER 3 14

MATERIALS AND METHODS 14

3.1 Study areas 14

3.2 Data Collection 14

3.3 Sampling Approach 15

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3.4 Data Analysis 16

CHAPTER 4 18

MAIN FINDINGS AND RESULTS 18

4.1 Analysis of Meteorological Data and the damage from extreme weather events in Nha Trang city 18

4.1.1 Analysis of Nha Trang Meteorological Data 18

4.1.2 The damage from extreme weather events in Nha Trang 21

4.2 Socio-Economic Characteristics of Fishermen 26

4.2.1 Survey location 26

4.2.2 Gender 26

4.2.3 Age of respondents 27

4.2.4 Education: 28

4.2.5 Fishing experience 29

4.2.6 Residential duration 29

4.2.7 Fishing trip duration 30

4.2.8 Fishing Income 30

4.2.9 Household income: 31

4.3 Climate change and its impacts on fisher’s communities and fishing activities 33

4.3.1 Fisher's awareness about Climate Change and change in weather conditions 33

4.3.2 Fisher’s perception about the impacts of climate change on their coastal regions 34

4.4 Fisher's weather information needs and how important they are 39

4.4.1 Frequency of receiving weather information 39

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4.4.2 Fisher’s weather and climate information needs and how important they

are 40

4.4.3 The importance of weather information sources for fisher 42

4.4.4 Fisher’s perception about weather information to adapt to Climate Change 44

4.4.5 Fisher’s willingness to pay for the weather and climate services 44

CHAPTER 5 47

CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS 47

5.1 Conclusion 47

5.2 Recommendation 48

REFERENCES 49

APPENDICES 55

𝑠𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣.𝑎𝑔𝑒 Standard deviation of age

𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑊𝑇𝑃.𝑎𝑔𝑒 Covariance of WTP and age

𝜌𝑊𝑇𝑃.𝑎𝑔𝑒 The correlation coefficient between WTP and age

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KTV Khanh Hoa Television

FAO The Food and Agriculture Organization

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GNP Gross National Product

LSCNDPC Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and

Control NHMS National Hydro-Meteorological Service

NCHMCF National Centre for Hydro-meteorological forecasting

NCAER National Council of Applied Economic Research

MORE Ministry of Natural Resource And Environment

RHMC Regional hydro-meteorological centers

SCRHMC South Center Regional Hydro-Meteorology Centre

PHMC Provincial hydro-meteorological centers

VTV Vietnam Television

WTP Willingness to pay

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Viet Nam weather forecast and transmitting in system 10

Figure 2.2 Conceptual framework of meteorological information forecast 13

Figure 3.1 Map showing the study areas in Vinh Nguyen ward 14

Figure 4.1 Annual Average Temperate from 1977 – 2017 at Nha Trang weather station 18

Figure 4.2 Ten-years Average Temperate from 1977 – 2017 at Nha Trang weather station 19

Figure 4.3 The change in average temperature of ten years period at Nha Trang 19 Figure 4.4 The Annual, Dry and Rainy season Rainfall at Nha Trang 20

Figure 4.5 Changing of Average annual rainfall of ten years at Nha Trang 20

Figure 4.6 Some extreme weather events at Nha Trang city in some years recently 23

Figure 4.7 Number and Damage of two main extreme weather events 25

Figure 4.9 Gender of responder 26

Figure 4.10 Histogram of Age 27

Figure 4.11 Distribution of education 28

Figure 4.12 Distribution of education on Island and Inland 29

Figure 4.13 Distribution of Fishing Income 31

Figure 4.14 Distribution of Household Income 32

Figure 4.15 Fisher's awareness about Climate Change and weather conditions 33

Figure 4.16 Impacts of climate change on coastal regions 34

Figure 4.17 Impacts of climate change on fishing activities 36

Figure 4.18 Fisher’s experience about climate events in recent years 38

Figure 4.19 The importance of weather information sources for fisher 42

Figure 4.20 Frequency of receiving weather information sources 42

Figure 4.21 Weather information help fishers adapt to Climate Change 44

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 4.1 Extreme weather events in Nha Trang’s history 21

Table 4.2 The Damage of Extreme Climate Events in Khanh Hoa province in 24

Table 4.3 Distribution of the respondents 26

Table 4.4 Age of respondents characteristics 27

Table 4.5 Fishing experience distribution 29

Table 4.6 Residential duration of the Fishermen 30

Table 4.7 Fishing trip duration 30

Table 4.8 Fishing Income characteristics (million VND/month) 30

Table 4.9 Household Income characteristics (in millions VND/month) 31

Table 4.10 Impacts of climate change on coastal regions 35

Table 4.11 Impacts of climate change on fishing activities 37

Table 4.12 Climate events in recent years 38

Table 4.13 Frequency of receiving weather information 39

Table 4.14 Fisher’s weather and climate information needs and how important of them 41

Table 4.15 Number of respondents WTP for weather and climate services 45

Table 4.16 WTP’s characteristics in VND/month 45

Table 4.17 Distribution of WTP of the respondents, measured in VND/month 45

Table 4.18 Correlation Coefficient of WTP and others factors 46

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ABSTRACT

Emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise when the world is burning ever more coal, oil and gas for energy The risk of the Earth's climate system is growing every day There are uncertainty associated with the linkages between climate change and extreme weather events Effects of Climate change are for example changing levels of precipitation, more severe weather and tropical cyclones Damage resulting from extreme weather events is already heavily impacting the civil and economic sectors, especially fisheries and fishing

communities Weather and climate forecasting information services can prepare fishers

and their communities for weather-related disasters, and contribute to smooth climate change adaptation However, most fisher communities lack meteorological information to respond to climate change, and many of them are unaware of how weather forecasts can help them in adapting to impacts of climate change This thesis investigates a particular fisher community's meteorological information needs and their climate change awareness The research also examines the delivery of the weather services to meet the fisher community's needs to adapt to impacts of climate change, and evaluate fishers’ willingness

to pay for improving the weather and climate information The study was conducted in Vinh Nguyen ward and 127 fishers were face-to-face interviewed through convenience sampling Results show that 91% of the respondents in Vinh Nguyen ward are aware that climate change is changing the weather to the worse in their area More than 80% of the respondents prefer “short to medium range weather forecast” with forecast details such as temperature, rainfall and wind, and “Warning severe weather events” that help them to plan their fishing trips and reduce risks caused by weather-related disasters More than 80% of the respondents said National Television Chanel (VTV channel), Apps on Cellphone, Web of NCHMF, ICOM radios are “important” or “very important”, and 69%

of the respondents were willing to pay for improving weather and climate information services The 95% confidence interval for their willingness to pay is 24.8-34.9 million VND The study concludes that the weather and climate information services currently received by fishers are quite diverse, but there is no official weather channel exclusively for marine fishermen, aiding them in adapting to the increasingly unusual weather and the change or decline in the aquatic resources they harvest

Keywords Climate change, Adaptation, Fishery, Weather and Climate Information

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Information

Climate change (CC) presently is a major global concern that has many positive and negative effects on the environment, socio-economic and other related sectors, such as water resources, human health, agriculture, and food security, biodiversity and marine ecosystems (Feleke, 2015) CC, and extreme weather have a significant influence on the lives and livelihoods of people in Viet Nam (Adger, 1999) CC influences and impacts all economic sectors including subsistence and commercial agriculture and fisheries, maritime and air transport services, water resources, energy, and production, tourism, infrastructure and cultural activities (McElwee et al., 2010) Accurate and timely information on the nature and timing of weather and extreme events are therefore vital for community adaptation to such events and sustainable economic development Weather and climate forecasting information services are, a critical part of early warning services, and can prepare communities and nations for weather-related disasters, and

contribute to smooth climate change adaptation (World Bank, 2009)

CC and the associated impacts in terms of sea-level rise, ocean acidification and changes

in salinity, precipitation, groundwater and river flows, and water stresses CC is also considered to be related to an increase in extreme climate events such as increased frequency of typhoons, inland saltwater intrusions, droughts and floods which are changing the productivity of aquatic habitats, modifying the distribution and productivity of both marine and freshwater fish species (EPA, 2016) Such changes are influencing the seasonality of biological and biophysical processes as well as increasing direct risks to human well-being in terms of reduced agriculture productivity, infrastructure and processes throughout the fisheries and aquaculture production chain (Cochrane & el al., 2009) Shaw et al (2010) and the IPCC (2012), have shown that the incidence and intensity of typhoons in Vietnam have increased, temperature has risen, (and conversely the number of cold fronts has decreased), and droughts are more prevalent (MORE, 2016) and affect fish resources and fish caught

Fish has been an important part of the human diet in almost all countries of the world

It is highly nutritious; it can provide vital nutrients food which dominate poor people’s diets (Cochrane & el al., 2009) Fish provides about 20 % of animal protein intake for

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1.5 billion people who mainly from developing countries (Cochrane & el al., 2009) and

is one of the cheapest sources of animal protein as far as availability and affordability are concerned Capture fisheries produce a larger share of total fish proteins although aquaculture output has recently surpasses wild caught fish in total global fish production (Mimako et al., 2015) Fisheries and aquaculture do not only supply nations with a rich source of proteins, but also employment, income, and foreign currency Activities taking place in coastal areas within 100 km of the shore account for an estimated 61% of the world’s total Gross National Product (GNP) (Ebarvia 2016) The number of people directly employed in fisheries and aquaculture is estimated at 43.5 million, of which over 90% are small–scale fishers (Cochrane & el al., 2009) In addition to those directly employed in fishing, over 200 million people are thought to be dependent on small-scale fishing in developing countries Fisheries are often the primary economic activity for inhabitants of remote and rural areas where other economic activities are limited, it is also an important source for economic growth and sustainable livelihoods (Cochrane &

el al., 2009)

In Vietnam the fisheries sector contributes about 3% of the GDP and fish contributes about 40% of animal protein consumption in the country (Son and Thuoc, 2003) People living in the coastal zones of Vietnam depend heavily on marine and aquaculture resources for their livelihoods

The ecological systems that support fisheries are, however, already known to be sensitive to climate variability In 2007, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, highlighted various risks to aquatic systems from climate change These threats include loss of coastal wetlands, coral bleaching and changes in the distribution and timing of fresh water flows (Orr et al., 2005) Similarly, fishing communities and related industries are concentrated in coastal or low lying areas which are progressively at risk from sea level rise, extreme weather events and a wide range of human pressures (Nicholls et al., 2007) While poverty in fishing communities or other forms of marginalization reduces their ability to adapt and respond to change, most of these rural communities lack meteorological information to respond to CC, and many

of the inhabitants are unaware of the relationship between meteorological forecasts and

CC

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Climate and meteorological information and support services play a critical role in providing Early Warning Systems (EWS) as well as increasing awareness and knowledge building adaptive capacity and disaster preparedness to a changing climate Choice of the dissemination channels can influence access and use of weather, climate information and service distribution to for vulnerable fisher groups Weather, climate information and support services relevant to adaptation in vulnerable coastal areas include early warning signals, weather forecasts, emergency guidelines, and financial support, medical and veterinary assistance (Thornton et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007) Though the people living in coastal communities are in most need of access to weather, climate information and support services, they have yet to fully experience the benefits of climate research, information and support services to enable them to cope effectively and build adaptive capacity to climate change (O’Brien et al., 2008)

Statement of the Problem

Due to the climate change, Viet Nam has been facing increased frequency and intensity

of extreme weather events during the last decades (MORE, 2016) For the period 2007–

2050, CC is predicted to cause Vietnam’s annual GDP growth rate to decline by 0.02 to 0.10% points Though this is minuscule relative to the GDP, absolute estimated losses resulting from climate change are significant, and estimated at US$6-15$ billion (in present value terms using a discount rate of 5 percent), and these losses are expected to

be more severe for certain sectors and population groups such as agriculture, transport, fishery, etc (UNU -WIDER, 2013) These losses provide clear incentives for increasing meteorological information and services for adaptation of policies designed to reduce climate change damages Moreover, the risks posed by climate change suggest that there

is a window of opportunity for Vietnam to benefit from pre-emptive action Some of the climatic events such as storms and tropical depressions have been observed to occur more frequently in the last decade and have been tending to move south of Viet Nam and trajectories have been more complex, and are more difficult to predict (MORE, 2016; Tan, Phan V. ; Thanh, 2013) Fishing activities depend on the weather, especially extreme weather events such as storm, thunderstorm, strong monsoon, and torrential rains Therefore, the weather forecast information is increasingly important for fisherman and their communities

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To minimize the consequences of natural disasters, it is necessary to make accurate weather forecasts and release early warnings to help coastal communities to prepare for extreme weather events However, these two tasks haven’t been done well in the past The country has an unevenly distributed network of 174 meteorological surface stations and 248 hydrological stations, as well as 29 agro-meteorological stations Forecasting services are at national, regional, and provincial levels However, the current use of meteorological information is unknown (The World Bank Group) Forecasts and warning systems need to be improved for hazards such as typhoons, temperature increases, flash floods and other types of natural disasters Efforts in fishers’ awareness creation of CC need to be frequent and systematic However, the type of forecast information received by fishers is unknown The quality, effectiveness, and usefulness

of the information have not been analyzed

1.2 Research Objectives

This study adopts a social science approach within a modified conceptual framework adopted from Cherotich et al (2012) to evaluate fishing communities’ awareness and knowledge of the relationship between meteorological information and climate change events The research investigates a particular fishers community's meteorological information needs and their climate change awareness The research also examines the delivery of the meteorological services to meet the fisher community's needs to adapt to impacts of climate change

The specific objectives are:

1 Investigate fisher’s perception, awareness, and knowledge of impacts of climate change on fisher’s communities

2 Investigate the importance of the meteorological information for fishers’ communities and their needs for fishing activities and risk mitigation of climate change effects

3 Investigate the sources of fishers meteorological and CC information and the transmission of meteorological services

4 Estimate the fisher’s willingness to pay for improving the weather and climate information

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CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Impacts of climate change on the Small-Scale Marine fisheries

2.1.1 Marine ecosystem impacts

Climate change has increased the differential heating between land and oceans and between polar and tropical regions and this will increasingly affect the intensity, frequency and seasonality of climate patterns (e.g., El Nino, La Nina) and extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts and storms) (Rosenzweig el al., 2001; Vellinga &

el al., 2000) These events will impact the stability of related marine resources Sea level rises, ocean acidification and changes in precipitation will significantly affect coral reefs, wetlands, sea grass and estuaries.(Chen, 2008; Dan & Gordon, 2009)

Climate change have both physical and biological effects on marine ecosystems in terms

of a change in the distribution of species In general, warm-water species move towards the poles and change with respect to the size and productivity of their habitats.(Chen, 2008; FAO, 2015) In warmer ocean and seas, ecosystem productivity is likely to be reduced Increased temperatures will also affect the physiological processes of fish, resulting in both positive and negative effects on fisheries systems depending on the region and latitude Climate change is already affecting the seasonality of biological processes, and is changing marine food webs with unpredictable consequences for fish production Increased risks of species invasions and break out of diseases are other concerns.(Cochrane & el al., 2009; Daw el al., 2009) (FAO, 2015)

2.1.2 Impacts on Small-Scale Marine fishers livelihoods

Extreme climate events have an impact on the infrastructure, ranging from locations to post-harvest facilities and transport routes They will also affect safety at sea and villages, with small-scale marine fisher communities living in coastal areas at particular risk.(Cochrane & el al., 2009; Daw et al., 2009; FAO, 2015)

Moreover, changes in distribution, and the composition of species and habitats will require changes in fishing practices, as well as in the location of fishing and processing facilities (Cochrane & el al., 2009; Daw et al., 2009; FAO, 2015)

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Livelihood strategies will have to be modified with changes in fishers' migration

patterns and cause changes in the timing of fishing activities The climate change will affect food security through changes in habitats, stocks and species distribution, increased variance in ecosystem productivity, and changes in livelihoods and catching opportunities (Allison et al., 2010)

2.2 Impacts of extreme weather events to fishing activities

Climate hazards such as typhoons, strong winds, thunderstorms, have a great impact on fishing activities According to the World Bank (2010), about 45 million people are affected by typhoons in Vietnam, with over 80 different storm events and nearly 19,000 people killed from 1953–2010 The worst typhoon experienced in Vietnam was in 1997 called the Tropical Storm Linda, which killed about 3,111 people, of which a majority came from poor fishing communities (Wikipedia, 2018) Many of these fishers and sailors were caught at sea in the path of the storm and were unable to escape its path (Takagi et al., 1997) In addition to the death of human beings, the storm also destroyed

at least 3,122 fishing boats Although weather forecast and officials in Vietnam issued warnings to the residents, it was not absorbed and obeyed because people in the region were ignorant as they rarely experience tropical cyclones (Wikipedia, 2018)

Another climate hazard experienced was Typhoon Chanchu in 2006, which was the most

intense typhoon in the South China Sea Although fishermen were warned, the warning from the National Hydro-meteorological Forecast Center remained unnoticed by many Unfortunately, many fishers were struck by strong waves in the east coast of Vietnam as they too slowly moved through the South China Sea Many ships were damaged and some sank Typhoon Chanchu in 2006 took the lives of 158 fishermen in Quang Nam and Quang Ngai provinces and Da Nang City (Government of Vietnam, 2009)

2.4 Weather forecast and climate change adaptation

Extreme weather events such as severe thunderstorms, tropical storms, windstorms, and tornadoes, directly impact the fisheries These hazards are becoming increasingly frequent and intense as a result of climate change (MORE, 2016) Vietnam is meteorologically located in the Western Pacific region, which is one of the two biggest storm centers in the world, and faces between 5-10 storms and tropical low-pressure

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systems a year These storms cause immense losses in term of human life and property (The Government of Vietnam, 2009) In places where residents rarely face storms, erratic weather conditions can cause huge losses of human life and damage to property Typhoon Linda, for instance, which hit the south of Viet Nam in 1997, killed more than 3,000 fishermen and lowered over 1,000 fishing vessels is a good example of the disasters that these storms can cause to poor fishermen Most of the fishers have limited access to modern equipment to detect the dangers of these events Those that listen to radio and television might only do so one or two days before leaving for their fishing trip By providing weather information and warnings to fishers that can help them make informed decisions about when and where to fish, whether to go out into the sea in safe areas This not only helps save many lives but also improves the livelihoods of the fisheries communities, as many fishers are the only providers for large families (Tushemereirwe et al., 2016)

As shown by recent climate experiences, like the most recent storm, especially Khanh Hoa province, has still quite a number of limitations in the adaptive capacity to reduce its vulnerability to climate change, including extreme events (The World Bank Group) The capacity for managing climate risks, including seasonal forecasting, early warning systems, disaster preparedness, mitigation, and relief, needs to be improved In most farming systems, adaptation has not been implemented to account for inter-annual or inter-seasonal variations in the current climate

2.5 Vietnam weather forecast and transmitting system

The National Hydro-Meteorological Service (NHMS) of Viet Nam plays an important and vital role for the safety, well-being, and welfare of the population, especially in coastal communities It has been given the mandate to protect man and society from the vagaries of weather, climate and water-induced disasters It has also provided for ways the country can use weather, climate and hydrological information in pursuing sustainable economic development, through the timely provision and issuance of timely, accurate and reliable information (The World Bank Group)

The National Centre for hydro-meteorological forecasting (NCHMCF), Viet Nam provides its forecasting services through its operational units at various levels: i) the National Centre of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) at the central level, ii)

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regional hydro-meteorological centers (RHMC) at the regional level and iii) provincial hydro-meteorological centers (PHMC) at provincial level NCHMCF Viet Nam is the main provider of weather forecasts (including nowcasting, very short-range, short-range, medium-range and long-range forecasts) in the country and enjoys a good visibility in the media

In figure 2.1 the weather forecast system traces the forecast information flows from the center to local fishing groups National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMCF) assumes the overall responsibilities for transmitting extreme weather events information to the communities Forecast information diffuses down to the Central Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and Control (CSCNDPC) to the Local Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (LCHMCF) to the LSCNDPC: Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and Control (LSCNDPC) that

in turn are in direct contact with the fishing communities and prepare them to adapt to extreme weather conditions The fishers use the information to enhance decision making and to improve adaptation

Better forecasting of weather and climate-related events should allow economic sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, and aquaculture to operate better and increase their productivity (The World Bank Group) The Mission of the (NCHMCF) is to provide the nation, specifically fishing communities, with forecasts of typhoons and other weather parameters, and information about ocean state, earthquakes, tsunamis and other phenomena related to earth systems through well-integrated programs These services have significant economic and social benefits that are otherwise very difficult to quantify (NCAER, 2010) The actual and potential benefits to fishers, fish farmers, firms, and national bodies from modern meteorological and related services are substantial and, till today, they are inadequately recognized and insufficiently exploited

in Vietnam Improved weather forecast can be considered an economic service for which most fishers are willing to pay

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Figure 2.1 Viet Nam weather forecast and transmitting in system

2.6 Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to estimate Willingness To Pay for weather and climate services

CVM is known as one of the major tools to assess the total value of non-market goods (Bett et al., 2013; Carlsson et al., 2005; Cocou Jaurès Amegnaglo et al, 2017) The objective of the CVM is to measure an individual’s monetary value for non-market goods by creating a hypothetical market where individual respondents are asked to define their Willingness to Pay (WTP) for having or not having a well-defined product This technique of valuation pursuits the values of Willingness To Pay (WTP) base on hypothetical markets or imaginary markets (Mitchell and Carson, 1989; Anuradhi Dulangi Jaysinghe, 2017) Market prices get from the interaction of consumer demand and supply Contingent valuation relies on the creation of hypothetical market like scenarios in which the non-market good or service could be provided to generate

experimental conditions to provide data that are used to estimate benefits (Bishop et al.1995; Kimberly S Rollins and Joseph Shaykewich, 2003) The stakeholders is

sampled and survey instruments based on the hypothesized markets are used to take data that in turn is used in models that predict the maximum amounts people would be willing

to pay (WTP) for a specific level or quality of service, contingent on the market scenario

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proposed A feature of well-designed CV studies is that respondents are rarely asked to value explicitly the good in question, rather, the experimental design alters characteristics of the good, including the price, and respondents are asked whether or not they would purchase the good at a given price This notion of a take-it-or-leave-it response to a given price for a well-defined service is consistent with market experiences

of most respondents (Mitchell & Carson 1990) Economic values measured by CV methods are theoretically consistent with economic benefits measures that arise from market data

Some studies have used the contingent valuation technique to determine the willingness

of farmers to pay for weather and climate information and estimated the benefits generated by providing weather forecast information to users (Phil L Kenkel and Patricia E Norris, 1995; Kimberly S Rollins and Joseph Shaykewich, 2003; Cocou Jaurès Amegnaglo et al, 2017)

The CV questionnaire for this study was designed to take into account the substitutes available for the Weather service, as well as to determine characteristics of commercial users There are several ways of requesting a fisher to reveal his/her willingness to pay (WTP): Open-ended questions, closed-ended questions (payment cards) The questionnaire format refers to the use of a hypothetical 'yes' or 'no' question to elicit respondents' preferences for a proposed service change This questionnaire format is widely accepted as a preferred format because it has been shown to be incentive compatible, thus limiting incentives for respondents to give biased answers

2.7 Conceptual framework

The understanding of fishers’ climate change awareness is one of the top priorities in climate change research (Ajuang et al 2016) Studies on climate change in developing countries suggest that the vast majority of people are not aware of climate change despite their high vulnerability to it, (Pew Research Centre 2006; Pugliese and Ray 2009; Godfrey et al 2009) However, studies conducted in Vietnam show that residents of Ha Tinh province were very aware about the risks of CC impacts to their livelihoods and community sustainability (Nguyen, King and Boon, 2016) Several studies have reported that national, cultural and local characteristics play a key role in shaping individual-level perceptions and awareness of climate change (Leiserowitz 2006;

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Brechin and Bhandari 2011) Lee et al (2015) thus emphasized the importance of identifying the key individual-level predictors of climate change awareness and risk perception for each locale separately Climate change awareness can be increased by the frequent and continuous provision of meteorological information supplied by information services to local communities Climate change information services (CS) may be defined as providing the scientific information and products that enhance users’ knowledge and understanding how these information influence their decisions and actions (Dent, 2016) These services are made most effective through collaboration between providers and users The levels of awareness and risk perception depend on the quality and frequency of the weather and CC information distributed to fisher communities The information depends on the media used, and the noise in the communication system The messages transmitted are modified by the socio-demographic, economic and physical environmental characteristic of the community The meteorological services combined with education and indigenous knowledge can assist in climate change events risk reduction and community adaptation (Cherotich et

al 2012) Figure 2.2 shows the various sources of weather services The meteorological services supply weather and CC information through various media The underlying theory is that meteorological information influences CC awareness, knowledge and preparedness for climatic events The information supplied by the meteorological service is combined with weather and CC information from indigenous knowledge of community fishers and modified by socio-demographic, economic and physical characteristics of the community The quality of the information depends on the communication noise existing in the channels employed for information diffusion The frequency and quality of the weather and CC information is used to formulate the coping and adaptation mechanism of the fishers

Despite the advances of knowledge in climate modeling and updating of projections, the information services and forecasts may still be grossly intricate for the use by local fishers Although the provision of services is an opportunity for accessing climate monitoring information, the service providers may encounter problems in delivering the services (Dent, 2012) The timeliness and conversion of the meteorological services may encounter difficulties putting the information into an operational routine, as timings of

Sources of climate change information and support services

Fishing community access to CC information

Effective use of CC information by fishers

Figure 2.2 Conceptual framework of meteorological information forecast

Agencies

Print media Newspapers

Community adaptation capacity to climate CC

Electronic media Internet SMS support

Community Channels Extension officials Internet SMS support

Socio-14

CHAPTER 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1 Study areas

Vinh Nguyen ward is south of Nha Trang city with a long tradition of marine fisheries

With a harbor and many islands and islets, Vinh Nguyen has got a good condition to develop marine fishing activities, but almost all of fisheries in this ward are small-scale (Thinh, Tran Cong, et al., 2015) with high vulnerability to CC and extreme weather

events

Figure 3.1 Map showing the study areas in Vinh Nguyen ward

3.2 Data Collection

The study adopts a cross-sectional survey design in which data were collected from both

primary and secondary sources Face - to - face interviews were employed to interview

community leaders, Nha Trang meteorological officials to obtain the types of

meteorological information transmitted to the fishing communities A structured questionnaire was used to collect household data while Key Informant Interviews

On the other hand, the primary data was collected from the field survey in the named study sites The main respondents were fishers Face - to - face interviews were employed in the process of collecting data with a non-structured questionnaire was be used

3.3 Sampling Approach

Convenient sampling was be used for individual and Face - to - face interviews held

with community leaders, KTV personnel, and SCRHMC officials to determine and meteorological information quality, frequency and needs and the manner of weather service information diffusion A study was selected 127 households including small-scale fisheries, and community leaders, through convenience sampling was interviewed

Objective 1: Investigate fisher’s perception, awareness, and knowledge of impacts of

climate change on fisher’s communities

The face - to - face interviews and the structured questionnaires was be designed in such

a way to solicit information on fishers perception of meteorological information, their aware about climate change and experience of extreme weather events in recent years Tabulation and descriptive statistics was used in the analysis of the data The data was

be descriptively analyzed to give frequencies and proportions

Objective 2: Investigate the importance of the meteorological information for fishers’

communities and their needs for fishing activities and risk mitigation of climate change effects

Face to face interview and the structured questionnaires was used to obtain the importance of the meteorological information for fishers’ communities and their access

to weather information and suitability of the information services in meeting their needs Fishers use of such information was noted Descriptive statistics were used for the

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presentation of the statistical analysis Comparative analysis between information sources were conducted The data were first descriptively analyzed to give frequencies and proportions Quantitative data analyses aided the excel spreadsheet

Objective 3: Investigate the sources of fishers meteorological and CC information and

the transmission of meteorological services

The system of weather and climate information transmission was analyzed by examining

a graphical representation of the channel of information delivery The fishers were interviewed to determine what importance information sources for fishing activities and their communities The information from the structures questionnaire was tabulated Descriptive statistics on the sources of information was evaluated

Objective 4: Estimate the fisher’s willingness to pay for improving the weather and

climate information

The data was collected and descriptive statistics of the data such as, maximum and minimum values, averages, standard deviations and standard errors, and a 95% confidence interval for the WTP We estimated correlations between WTP and e.g age, gender, education and/or income

3.4 Data Analysis

Data was collected by the use of a survey among fishers in the Vinh Nguyen ward The collected data was entered into an EXCEL spread sheet, and I used excel commands to derive descriptive statistics of the data such as, maximum and minimum values, averages, standard deviations and standard errors, and confidence intervals

We also applied the excel spread sheet to estimate average willingness to pay (WTP) for weather forecast, and a 95% confidence interval for the WTP Collecting data on respondents’ age, gender, education and income, we estimated correlations between WTP and e.g age, gender, education or income

We will use the following formulas to estimate the mentioned statistic variables:

 Expected value/mean:

𝑾𝑻𝑷

̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ =∑𝑵𝒊=𝟏𝑾𝑻𝑷𝒊

𝑵

Where: 𝝆𝑾𝑻𝑷.𝒂𝒈𝒆 : the correlation coefficient between WTP and age

𝒔𝒅 𝒅𝒆𝒗𝒂𝒈𝒆: Standard deviation

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CHAPTER 4 MAIN FINDINGS AND RESULTS 4.1 Analysis of Meteorological Data and the damage from extreme weather events

in Nha Trang city

4.1.1 Analysis of Nha Trang Meteorological Data

Nha Trang has already begun to feel the effects of climate change The average temperature has risen 0.8°C since 1977, incidences of heavy rainfall and flooding have increased, and the storms are stronger than they used to be, landslide and flood have more occurred that affected to Nha Trang residents and the fishers in Vinh Nguyen ward

a) Temperature in Nha Trang from 1977 - 2017

Although the temperature distribution over the forty-one year period shows unstable patterns, there has been a rising trend in the temperature in this period (Figure 4.1) The highest annual average temperature was 27.53°C in 2016, whiles the lowest annual average temperature was 26.2°C in 1977 and 1996 From 1977 to 2017; the annual average temperature has been hovering between 26 and 28°C

Figure 4.1 Annual Average Temperate from 1977 – 2017 at Nha Trang weather station

(Source: South Central Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center)

There has been a gradual rise in the average temperature of ten years period from

27,525

y = 0,0247x + 26,281 R² = 0,6149

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was in “2007-2017” period which was 27.2°C whiles the lowest once was 26.4°C in

Figure 4.3 The change in average temperature of ten years period at Nha Trang

(Source: South Central Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center)

Dry Season 25%

Rainy Season 75%

Distribution rainfall between Dry and Rainy Season

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During 1977-2017, the rainfall was also unstable with wide variations The highest annual rainfall recorded was 2622.8 mm in 2010 while the lowest average was 802.7mm in 2004 (Figure 4.4)

Figure 4.4 The Annual, Dry and Rainy season Rainfall at Nha Trang

(Source: South Central Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center)

Between 1987 and 1996 the average annual rainfall was 1281.3 mm which was the lowest period of rainfall; 1664.2 mm between 2007 and 2017 (the most recently

Figure 4.5 Changing of Average annual rainfall of ten years at Nha Trang

(Source: South Central Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center)

2622,8

y = 11,901x + 1204 R² = 0,0861

Annual, Dry and Rainy Season Rainfall

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Although, annual rainfall trended to increase, the distribution of rainfall from year to year, between dry and rainy season was not uniform The rainfall increasing in the rainy seasons, and shorter periods that caused of increasing in extreme weather events such as floods, landslides, urban waterlogged1 During the dry season with prolonged periods, in some years the rainfall was very low which led to water shortage, even occurred drought in 1997-1998, 2003-2005, 2014-2015 (Figure 4.4)

4.1.2 The damage from extreme weather events in Nha Trang

The best way to assess climate change impacts is to look at past damage from extreme weather events (McElwee et al., 2010) Extreme weather events include very high temperature, torrential rains, and typhoons Due to the greenhouse effect, changes can occur in both mean climate parameters and the frequency of extreme weather events (Rosenzweig et al., 2001)

In the last ten years, Nha Trang has experienced extreme weather events such as the historic flood in 2009, heat waves with the highest temperatures in 2016, the strongest storm in 40 years in Nha Trang in 2017, and the torrential rain broke record of daily rainfall in 2018 (Table 4.1)

Table 4.1 Extreme weather events in Nha Trang’s history

Time

(month/

year)

Extreme weather events

11/2009 Water from Cai River rose up to 13.42 meters that has broken records

in the history, thousands of houses in Nha Trang was flooded It caused severe damage to the frastructure and household property such as furniture, clothes, TV, fridge were submerged in river flood

6/2016 The highest temperature ever officially recorded in Nha Trang is 37.9

Degrees Celsius occurred in 2016 and this year has been become the

1 Urban waterlogging is a natural phenomenon where water gets accumulated in an urban area due

to heavy rain which results to damage and destruction of material things which causes setback in our day to day lives (Gresha S Bhatia, 2018)

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hottest one from 1977 Increase number of hot days (daily maximum temperature greater than 35 Degrees Celsius) caused increased broke out disease such as the dengue and diarrhea

11/2017 The strongest tropical storms in 40 recent years occurred and caused to

damage or collapse hundreds of houses and blew away thousands of roofs in Nha Trang Storm surge from 4-6m, caused coastal flood, erosion, strong winds and high waves hit brake, sink and swept away boats and destroy aquaculture tanks

11/2018 The torrential rain with daily rainfall was more 400mm that has broken

records before, caused urban waterlogging, river flood and landside Many houses, furniture, vehicles (cars or motorbikes), fridges, were submerged in water Specially, landslide caused more 10 deaths; some families couldn't run away from their houses when it was be collapsed

Some pictures of extreme weather events have been occurred in Nha Trang city (Figure2.6):

Urban waterlog 2018

(source: https://baokhanhhoa.vn)

Landslide 2018 caused traffic interruption (source: https://baokhanhhoa.vn)

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Damage fishing boats after Damrey Typhoon

hit in 2017 (source: Field trip)

Coastal erosion in Vinh Nguyen ward caused high waves (source: Field trip 2017)

Landslide colaped many house with 13 deaths

in Nha Trang in a torrential rain.

Source: https://news.zing.vn

River flood effected thousands household in Nha Trang City (Source: Vietnammoi.vn)

Figure 4.6 Some extreme weather events at Nha Trang city in some years recently

Recent climate events has led to increasing damage The storm and flood that are two main extreme weather events with the strongest effects on Khanh Hoa province and Vinh Nguyen residents

From 2007 to 2018, more than 100 people were killed by extreme weather events, and

a thousand houses collapsed or was damaged in Khanh Hoa province Total estimated damage has been over two thousand billion VND (Table 4.2) The most dangerous climate events are tropical storms in terms of people killed, affected, and total damage, with seven different storm events and 62 people killed from 2007–2018 Other common hazardous weather events are heavy rains that caused many hazards such as flood, urban

Death Collapsed

House

Broken Boats

Total Damage (billion VND)

10/2007 Heavy rain Flood,

waterlogging, Land slide

11/2007 Heavy rain Flood,

waterlogging, Land slide

10/2008 Heavy rain Flood,

waterlogging, Land slide

11/2008 Strom (Noul) Strong wind,

heavy rain, flood, coastal erosion

11/2008 Heavy rain Flood,

waterlogging, Land slide, river erosion

11/2010 Heavy rain long duration

Flood (3days), waterlogging, Land slide

11/2015 Heavy rain flood 6

11/2016 Heavy rain Flood, urban

waterlogging, Land slide

a)Number of extreme weather

events

b) Damage of two main extreme weather events

Figure 4.7 Number and Damage of two main extreme weather events

Heavy rain ; 11

Strom;

7

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Death Collapsed

Houses

Broken boats

Total Damage (billion VND)

Storm Heavy rain

Table 4.3 Distribution of the respondents Location of survey Number of respondents %

A few women participate in fishing activities, but only participated the fishing trip all night in near-coastal areas

Figure 4.8 Gender of responder

87%

13%

Gender of the respondents

Male Female

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4.2.3 Age of respondents

The average age of respondents is 42 years The youngest respondent is 17 years old and the oldest is 79 years old The age of respondents doesn’t large spread out with standard deviation is 12.91 years old (Table 4.4)

Table 4.4 Age of respondents characteristics Age characteristics Years old

Standard Deviation 12.91 Figure 4.10 Shows that respondents between 41-50 years old constitutes the largest group encompassing 35% of all responses Nearly 80% of the respondents (fishermen) are younger than 50 years During the interviews, respondents said that: “In recent years only a few young people have pursued fishing” The main reason, according to these respondents, was a sharp decline in fish stocks, resulting in declining and unstable income.Boat owners complained about difficulties in finding “friends” for the long day fishing trips Most of the young people in the villages switched to working in the tourism service sector, which has a stable and higher income than fishing

Figure 4.9 Histogram of Age

Frequency Percentage response

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The youngest fisherman in the sample is 17 years old, but he has already 3 years of fishing experience Starting with fishing activities when you are under 18 years old is quite common in these areas, and some of the respondents even said that they started following their parents to the beach for fishing at an age of 12

education level

Figure 4.10 Distribution of education

Distinguishing on area, the proportion of fishermen living on the islands who stopped at primary school (44.8%) is much higher than for fishermen from the inland (30.0%) (Figure 4.12) In addition to the fact that many fishermen participate in fishing activities

at a very young age2 the fact that at the islands until 2008 there existed only one primary school contributes to explain the relatively low education level This implied that people

Table 4.5 Fishing experience distribution (year) Fishing experience (years) No respondents Percentage

to settle on these islands, and they survived thanks to fishing activities After 1968 many more people moved to the islands and a majority of the island respondents (79%) had