Oceans and marine resources in a changing climate a technical input to the 2013 national climate assessment lead authors, roger griffis, jennifer howard

Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment National Climate Assessment Regional Technical Input Report Series Edited by:

Oceans and Marine Resources

in a Changing Climate

A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

National Climate Assessment Regional Technical Input Report Series

Edited by:

Roger Griffis

Jennifer Howard

Oceans and Marine Resources

in a Changing Climate

A Technical Input to the

2013 National Climate Assessment

Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes

or Tribal Government or Non-Governmental entity

Changing Climate: A Technical Input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment Washington, DC:

‘ŽȱœŒ’Ž—’ęŒȱ›Žœž•œȱŠ—ȱŒ˜—Œ•žœ’˜—œǰȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱŠ—¢ȱŸ’Ž œȱ˜›ȱ˜™’—’˜—œȱŽ¡™›ŽœœŽȱ‘Ž›Ž’—ǰȱŠ›Žȱ

‘˜œŽȱ˜ȱ‘ŽȱŠž‘˜›ǻœǼȱŠ—ȱ˜ȱ—˜ȱ—ŽŒŽœœŠ›’•¢ȱ›ŽĚŽŒȱ‘ŽȱŸ’Ž œȱ˜ȱȱ˜›ȱ‘ŽȱŽ™Š›–Ž—ȱ˜ȱ Commerce.

About This Series

This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the National Climate Assessment (NCA) 2013 report The NCA is being conducted under the auspices of the •˜‹Š•ȱ‘Š—ŽȱŽœŽŠ›Œ‘ȱŒȱ˜ȱŗşşŖǰȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱ›Žšž’›ŽœȱŠȱ›Ž™˜›ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ›Žœ’Ž—ȱŠ—ȱ˜—-gress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts The NCA in-forms the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and

Š—’Œ’™ŠŽȱ›Ž—œȱ˜›ȱ‘Žȱžž›Žǯȱ‘Žȱȱ›Ž™˜›ȱ™›˜ŒŽœœȱ’—Ž›ŠŽœȱœŒ’Ž—’ęŒȱ’—˜›–Š-’˜—ȱ›˜–ȱ–ž•’™•Žȱœ˜ž›ŒŽœȱŠ—ȱœŽŒ˜›œȱ˜ȱ‘’‘•’‘ȱ”Ž¢ȱꗍ’—œȱŠ—ȱœ’—’ęŒŠ—ȱŠ™œȱ’—ȱ

˜ž›ȱ”—˜ •ŽŽǯȱ’—’—œȱ›˜–ȱ‘Žȱȱ™›˜Ÿ’Žȱ’—™žȱ˜ȱŽŽ›Š•ȱœŒ’Ž—ŒŽȱ™›’˜›’’ŽœȱŠ—ȱ

Š›ŽȱžœŽȱ‹¢ȱǯǯȱŒ’’£Ž—œǰȱŒ˜––ž—’’ŽœȱŠ—ȱ‹žœ’—ŽœœŽœȱŠœȱ‘Ž¢ȱŒ›ŽŠŽȱ–˜›ŽȱœžœŠ’—Š‹•Žȱand environmentally sound plans for the nation’s future

›Ž™˜›ǰȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱ ’••ȱ’—Œ•žŽȱŠȱ–žŒ‘ȱœ‘˜›Ž›ȱœ¢—‘Žœ’œȱ˜ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—Žȱ˜›ȱŽŠŒ‘ȱ›Ž’˜—ǰȱare using these technical input reports as important source material By publishing this

œŽ›’Žœȱ˜ȱ›Ž’˜—Š•ȱŽŒ‘—’ŒŠ•ȱ’—™žȱ›Ž™˜›œǰȱœ•Š—ȱ›Žœœȱ‘˜™Žœȱ˜ȱ–Š”Žȱ‘’œȱ›’Œ‘ȱŒ˜••ŽŒ’˜—ȱ

˜ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱ–˜›Žȱ ’Ž•¢ȱŠŸŠ’•Š‹•Žǯȱ

‘’œȱœŽ›’Žœȱ’—Œ•žŽœȱ‘Žȱ˜••˜ ’—ȱ›Ž™˜›œDZ

•’–ŠŽȱ‘Š—ŽȱŠ—ȱŠŒ’ęŒȱœ•Š—œDZȱ—’ŒŠ˜›œȱŠ—ȱ–™ŠŒœ

Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities

Great Plains Regional Technical Input Report

Climate Change in the Midwest: A Synthesis Report for the National Climate Assessment Climate Change in the Northeast: A Sourcebook

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate

Climate of the Southeast United States: Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States

œŠ•Žȱ˜—ȱ‘Žȱœ•Š—ȱ›Žœœȱ Ž‹œ’ŽȱŠȱwww.islandpress.org/NCAreports

Oceans and Marine Resources

in a Changing Climate

A Technical Input to the

2013 National Climate Assessment

LEAD AUTHORS

Roger Griffis

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jennifer Howard

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Washington | Covelo | London

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT

Lead Author: Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SECTION 2: CLIMATE-DRIVEN PHYSICAL CHANGES IN MARINE

ECOSYSTEMS

Lead Author: Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Carol Auer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Russ Beard, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Nicholas Bond, University of Washington

Tim Boyer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

David Brown, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Kathy Crane, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Scott Cross, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Bob Diaz, Virginia Institute of Marine Science

Libby Jewett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Rick Lumpkin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

J Ru Morrison, North East Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean Observing Systems James O’Donnell, University of Connecticut

James Overland, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Rost Parsons, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Neal Pettigrew, University of Maine

Emily Pidgeon, Conservation International

Josie Quintrell, National Federation of Regional Associations for Ocean Observing Systems Jeffrey Runge, University of Maine and Gulf of Maine Research Institute

Uwe Send, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO)

Diane Stanitski, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Yan Xue, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SECTION 3: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MARINE ORGANISMS

Lead Authors: Brian Helmuth, University of South Carolina and Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Deborah Fauquier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Michael Graham, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories

Anne Hollowed, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

David Hutchins, University of Southern California

Libby Jewett, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Nancy Knowlton, Smithsonian Institute

Trond Kristiansen, Institute of Marine Research

Teri Rowles, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Eric Sanford, Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California at Davis

Carol Thornber, University of Rhode Island

Cara Wilson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SECTION 4: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN USES OF THE OCEAN

Lead Authors: Amber Himes-Cornell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Mike Orbach, Duke University

Stewart Allen, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Guillermo Auad, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

Mary Boatman, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

Patricia M Clay, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sam Herrick, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Dawn Kotowicz, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Peter Little, Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission

Cary Lopez, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Phil Loring, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

Paul Niemeier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Karma Norman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Lisa Pfeiffer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Mark Plummer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Michael Rust, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Merrill Singer, University of Connecticut

Cameron Speirs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SECTION 5: INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Lead Authors: Eleanora Babij, U.S Fish and Wildlife Service and Paul Niemeier, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Brian Hayum, U.S Fish and Wildlife Service

Amber Himes-Cornell, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Anne Hollowed, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Peter Little, Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission

Mike Orbach, Duke University

Emily Pidgeon, Conservation International

SECTION 6: MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES, ADAPTATIONS,

APPROACHES, AND OPPORTUNITIES

Lead Authors: Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Jordan Diamond, Environmental Law Institute

Bill Fisher, U.S Environmental Protection Agency

Ben Halpern, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis

Lara Hansen, EcoAdapt

Amber Mace, California Ocean Protection Council

Katheryn Mengerink, Environmental Law Institute

Josie Quintrell, National Federation of Regional Associations for Ocean Observing Systems

SECTION 7: SUSTAINING THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES

Lead Author: Roger Griffis, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Brian Helmuth, University of South Carolina

Jennifer Howard, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Laura Petes, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

This report was made possible by the generous assistance of many experts from

ŠȱŸŠ›’Ž¢ȱ˜ȱꎕœȱ ‘˜ȱŒ˜—›’‹žŽȱ‘Ž’›ȱ’–ŽȱŠ—ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ǯȱ‘ŽȱŠž‘˜›ȱŽŠ–ȱ thanks experts from the NOAA Fisheries Science Centers, academia, and other institutions who provided regional assessments, references, and other informa- tion The team also thanks peer reviewers for their time and comments, which

œ’—’ęŒŠ—•¢ȱ’–™›˜ŸŽȱ‘Žȱ˜Œž–Ž—ǯȱ›Žȱ’™œ‘ž•ĵǰȱŠ•™‘ȱŠ—Š•ǰȱŠ—ȱ——Žȱ Waple from the National Climate Assessment are greatly appreciated for their vision, leadership, support, and encouragement throughout the development of this report.

1.2 Linkages with Other Parts of the National Climate Assessment 5

CHAPTER 2: CLIMATE-DRIVEN PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL CHANGES

Exposure to toxicants 44 Effects on life history tradeoffs and larval dispersal 44

Species interactions and trophic relationships 58

CHAPTER 4: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN USES

OF THE OCEAN AND OCEAN SERVICES 64

Effects on the productivity and location of fish stocks 72 Economic effects on commercial fisheries and fishing-dependent

Regional effects of climate change on fisheries 75 Fisheries and communities adapting to climate change 854.3 Implications of Climate Change for Aquaculture 88

Social impacts of climate change on aquaculture 90

Renewable energy (wind, ocean waves, and currents) 96

Harmful algal blooms and climate change 105 Health risks related to climate impacts on marine zoonotic diseases 106 Health risks of extreme weather events 107 Globalized seafood and emerging health risks 107 Acidification and other unknown human health risks 109

Offshore energy development 113

Socio-economic impacts for commercial and recreational fisheries 115

5.1 Implications of Climate Change in International Conventions and Treaties 121

Convention on Wetlands of International Importance 124 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of

Inter-American Convention for the Protection and Conservation

5.2 Climate Change Considerations in Other International Organizations 127 Agreement for the Conservation of Albatross and Petrels 127

Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources 128 North Pacific Marine Science Organization 129 Wider Caribbean Sea Turtle Conservation Network 1295.3 Climate Change Considerations by Regional Fisheries Management

Organizations and Living Marine Resource Conservation Organizations 129

Transboundary fish stocks 134

5.4 Climate Change and Other International Issues 136 Maritime transportation and security 136

CHAPTER 6: OCEAN MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES, ADAPTATION

APPROACHES, AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 140

6.1 Challenges and Opportunities for Adaptation in Marine Systems 1426.2 Information, Tools, and Services to Support Ocean Adaptation 143

changing climate 1456.3 Opportunities for Integrating Climate Change into U.S Ocean Policy

Incorporating climate change into marine spatial planning and

Integrating climate change into fisheries management 149 Efforts to integrate climate considerations into existing legislative and

6.4 Emerging Frameworks and Actions for Ocean Adaptation 152

CHAPTER 7: SUSTAINING THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS

ON OCEANS AND MARINE RESOURCES 156

7.1 Challenges to Assessing Climate Impacts on Oceans and

7.2 Key Steps for Sustained Assessment of Climate Impacts on

APPENDIX A: STATUS OF AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

TO COMMERCIAL, RECREATIONAL, AND SUBSISTENCE FISHERIES

including coastal seagrasses, tidal marshes, and mangroves

Carbon sequestration – A long-term storage plan for carbon dioxide or other forms of

a result of natural variability or human activity

•’–ŠŽȱ ˜Ž•’—ȱ – Quantitative methods used to simulate the interactions of the

atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice They are used for a variety of purposes such

external support for recovery

Œ˜œ¢œŽ–ȱ – A biological environment consisting of all of the organisms living in a

Šœȱ ›ŽŒ›ŽŠ’˜—ǰȱ ŠŽœ‘Ž’Œȱ Ž—“˜¢–Ž—ǰȱ Š—ȱ œ™’›’žŠ•ȱ ž•ę••–Ž—Dzȱ Š—ȱ œž™™˜›’—ȱ œŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽœȱsuch as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling.

’œœ˜•ŸŽȱ˜¡¢Ž—ȱ‹ŽŒ˜–Žœȱ›ŽžŒŽȱ˜ȱŠȱ™˜’—ȱ‘Šȱ’œȱŽ›’–Ž—Š•ȱ˜ȱŠšžŠ’Œȱ˜›Š—’œ–œȱliving in the system

—ŸŠœ’ŸŽȱ™ŽŒ’Žœȱ– ˜—Ȭ’—’Ž—˜žœȱœ™ŽŒ’Žœȱ˜ȱ™•Š—œȱ˜›ȱŠ—’–Š•œȱ‘ŠȱŠŸŽ›œŽ•¢ȱŠěŽŒȱ‘Žȱ

habitats and bioregions that they invade economically, environmentally, and/or

ecologi-ŒŠ••¢ǯȱ‘Ž¢ȱ’œ›ž™ȱ‹¢ȱ˜–’—Š’—ȱ›Ž’˜—œǰȱ ’•Ž›—ŽœœȱŠ›ŽŠœǰȱ™Š›’Œž•Š›ȱ‘Š‹’ŠœǰȱŠ—Ȧ˜›ȱ ’••Š—Ȭž›‹Š—ȱ’—Ž›ŠŒŽȱ•Š—ȱŠ—ȱŒŠžœ’—ȱŠȱ•˜œœȱ˜ȱ—Šž›Š•ȱŒ˜—›˜•œǯ

Š›ŽȱŠ›’—ŽȱŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱǻœǼȱ– ›ŽŠœȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱŒ‘Š›ŠŒŽ›’£Žȱ‹¢ȱ’œ’—ŒȱŽ™‘ǰȱ

hydrology, productivity, and trophic interactions

Š¡’–ž–ȱžœŠ’—Š‹•Žȱ’Ž•ȱǻǼȱ– The largest long-term average catch or yield that

ŒŠ—ȱ ‹Žȱ Š”Ž—ȱ ›˜–ȱ Šȱ œ˜Œ”ȱ ˜›ȱ œ˜Œ”ȱ Œ˜–™•Ž¡ȱ ž—Ž›ȱ ™›ŽŸŠ’•’—ȱ ŽŒ˜•˜’ŒŠ•ȱ Š—ȱ mental conditions

Ž—Ÿ’›˜—-’’Š’˜— – —ȱŠ—‘›˜™˜Ž—’Œȱ’—Ž›ŸŽ—’˜—ȱ˜ȱ›ŽžŒŽȱŠ—‘›˜™˜Ž—’Œȱ’—ĚžŽ—ŒŽœȱ˜—ȱ‘Žȱ

climate system Mitigation includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and

Ž–’œœ’˜—œȱŠ—ȱŽ—‘Š—ŒŽȱ›ŽŽ—‘˜žœŽȱŠœȱœ’—”œǯ

Š›‘Ȃœȱ˜ŒŽŠ—œǰȱŒŠžœŽȱ‹¢ȱ‘Žȱž™Š”Žȱ˜ȱŠ—‘›˜™˜Ž—’ŒȱŒŠ›‹˜—ȱ’˜¡’Žȱǻ2) from the atmosphere

Žœ’•’Ž—ŒŽȱ – The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb,

ŠŒŒ˜––˜ŠŽǰȱŠ—ȱ›ŽŒ˜ŸŽ›ȱ›˜–ȱ‘ŽȱŽěŽŒœȱ˜ȱŠȱ‘Š£Š›˜žœȱŽŸŽ—ȱ’—ȱŠȱ’–Ž•¢ȱŠ—ȱŽĜŒ’Ž—ȱ

manner through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential

basic structures and functions

Žœ’œŠ—ŒŽȱ– The capacity of the ecosystem to absorb disturbances and remain largely

ACAP – Agreement for the Conservation of Albatross and Petrels ACL – Annual Catch Limits

 ȱȮȱ•Šœ”ŠȱŽ™Š›–Ž—ȱ˜ȱ’œ‘ȱŠ—ȱ Š–Žȱ AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMSA – Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment BOEM – Bureau of Ocean Energy Management BSAI – Bering Sea–Aleutian Islands

CBD – Convention on Biological Diversity CCAMLR – Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources CDC – Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

CDM – Clean Development Mechanisms CFP – Ciguatera Fish Poisoning

CI – Conservation International CITES – Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species CMS – Convention on Migratory Species

CMSP – Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning

CO2 – Carbon Dioxide

˜ȱȮȱ˜—Ž›Ž—ŒŽȱ˜ȱ‘ŽȱŠ›’Žœǰȱ—’ŽȱŠ’˜—œȱ›Š–Ž ˜›”ȱ˜—ŸŽ—’˜—ȱ˜—ȱ•’–ŠŽȱ‘Š—Ž CREST – Coral Reef Ecosystem Studies

CWA – Clean Water Act

EBS – Eastern Bering Sea

Acronyms xxiii

IAC – Inter-American Convention for the Protection and Conservation of Sea Turtles

ȱȮȱ—Ž›ŠŽ—Œ¢ȱ•’–ŠŽȱ‘Š—ŽȱŠ™Š’˜—ȱŠœ”ȱ˜›ŒŽȱ

ȱȮȱ—Ž›Ȭ ˜ŸŽ›—–Ž—Š•ȱ›Š—’£Š’˜—œ

IOC – Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ȱȮȱ—Ž›—Š’˜—Š•ȱ—’˜—ȱ˜›ȱ˜—œŽ›ŸŠ’˜—ȱ˜ȱŠž›Ž

IWC – International Whaling Commission

LME – Large Marine Ecosystems

ȱȮȱŠ—ȬœŽǰȱŠ—ȬœŽȱ‘Š—ŽȱŠ—ȱ˜›Žœ›¢ȱ

MPA – Marine Life Protection Act

MPA – Marine Protected Area

MSY – Maximum Sustainable Yield

ȱȮȱ˜›‘ Žœȱ•Š—’Œȱ’œ‘Ž›’Žœȱ›Š—’£Š’˜—ȱ

NAMA – National Appropriate Mitigation Actions

NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation

PLA – Participatory Learning Assessment

PWS – Prince William Sound

REDD – Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

ȱȮȱŽ’˜—Š•ȱ’œ‘Ž›’ŽœȱŠ—ŠŽ–Ž—ȱ›Š—’£Š’˜—œȱ

ȱȮȱ™Š —’—ȱ˜Œ”ȱ’˜–Šœœȱ

SST – Sea Surface Temperature

ȱȮȱ˜Š•ȱ••˜ Š‹•ŽȱŠŒ‘ȱ

TAT – Transient Accommodations Tax

Moderate Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary

and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus

‘Žȱ—’ŽȱŠŽœȱǻǯǯǼȱ’œȱŠ—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱ—Š’˜—Dzȱ˜ž›ȱ™Šœǰȱ™›ŽœŽ—ȱŠ—ȱžž›ŽȱŠ›Žȱ’—Ž¡›’ŒŠ‹•¢ȱconnected to and dependent on oceans and marine resources Marine ecosystems under

ǯǯȱ–Š›’—ŽȱŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱŠ—ȱœŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽœȱŠ›Žȱ’—Œ›ŽŠœ’—•¢ȱŠȱ›’œ”ȱ›˜–ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—ŽȱŠ—ȱ

˜‘Ž›ȱ‘ž–Š—ȱ™›Žœœž›Žœǯȱȱ ŽŠ•‘ȱ˜ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱ˜Œž–Ž—œȱœ›˜—ȱ•’—”ŠŽœȱ‹Ž ŽŽ—ȱ‘Žȱ

duce dramatic changes in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of ocean

™•Š—ŽȂœȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŠ—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱœ¢œŽ–œȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱŒ‘Š—Žœȱ’—ȱ‘ŽȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱœ¢œŽ–ȱ‘ŠȱŒŠ—ȱ™›˜-ŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱ˜—ȱŠȱŸŠ›’Ž¢ȱ˜ȱœ™Š’Š•ȱŠ—ȱŽ–™˜›Š•ȱœŒŠ•Žœǯȱ’’˜—Š••¢ǰȱŠȱ›˜ ’—ȱ‹˜¢ȱ˜ȱliterature provides evidence of the current impacts of increasing atmospheric carbon di-

˜¡’ŽȱŠ—ȱ‘ŽȱŠœœ˜Œ’ŠŽȱ•˜‹Š•ȱ Š›–’—ȱŠ—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱŠŒ’’ęŒŠ’˜—ȱ˜—ȱ™‘¢œ’ŒŠ•ǰȱŒ‘Ž–’ŒŠ•ǰȱ

Š—ȱ‹’˜•˜’ŒŠ•ȱŒ˜–™˜—Ž—œȱ˜ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œǯȱ˜—ŸŽ›œŽ•¢ǰȱ›Ž•Š’ŸŽ•¢ȱ•’Ĵ•Žȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱ

œ‘˜ œȱ ‘˜ ȱ ‘ŽœŽȱ Œ•’–ŠŽȬ›’ŸŽ—ȱ Œ‘Š—Žœȱ ’—ȱ ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱ ŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱ –Š¢ȱ ’–™ŠŒȱ ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱ vices and uses, although it is predicted that the vulnerability of ocean-dependent users, communities, and economies increases in a changing climate In addition, non-climatic

œŽ›-

œ›Žœœ˜›œȱ›Žœž•’—ȱ›˜–ȱŠȱŸŠ›’Ž¢ȱ˜ȱ‘ž–Š—ȱŠŒ’Ÿ’’Žœǰȱ’—Œ•ž’—ȱ™˜••ž’˜—ǰȱ꜑’—ȱ’–-tively, climatic and non-climatic pressures on marine ecosystems are having profound and diverse impacts that are expected to increase in the future

™ŠŒœǰȱŠ—ȱ˜ŸŽ›ȬžœŽǰȱŒŠ—ȱ’—Ž›ŠŒȱ ’‘ȱŠ—ȱŽ¡ŠŒŽ›‹ŠŽȱ’–™ŠŒœȱ˜ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—Žǯȱ˜••ŽŒ-ŠœŽȱ˜—ȱŒž››Ž—ȱž—Ž›œŠ—’—ȱ˜ȱ‘ŽœŽȱ•’—”ŠŽœȱ‹Ž ŽŽ—ȱ‘Žȱ™•Š—ŽȂœȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŠ—ȱ

˜ŒŽŠ—ȱœ¢œŽ–œȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ™›˜“ŽŒ’˜—œȱ˜ȱžž›ŽȱŒ‘Š—Žœȱ’—ȱ‘Žȱ•˜‹Š•ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱœ¢œŽ–ǰȱ‘Žȱ

–Š›’—Žȱ ŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱ ž—Ž›ȱ ǯǯȱ “ž›’œ’Œ’˜—ȱ Š—ȱ ǯǯȱ ’—Ž›Žœȱ ’—Ž›—Š’˜—Š••¢ȱ Š›Žȱ •’”Ž•¢ȱ

˜ȱŒ˜—’—žŽȱ˜ȱ‹ŽȱŠěŽŒŽȱ‹¢ȱŠ—‘›˜™˜Ž—’ŒȬ›’ŸŽ—ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—ŽȱŠ—ȱ›’œ’—ȱ•ŽŸŽ•œȱ˜ȱatmospheric CO2 These impacts are set in motion through a collection of changes in the

‹˜—ȱœ’—”œȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ‘Ž•™’—ȱœ™ŽŒ’ŽœǰȱŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œǰȱŠ—ȱ‘Žȱœ˜Œ’Ž’Žœȱ‘ŠȱŽ™Ž—ȱ˜—ȱ‘Ž–ȱ

˜ȱŠŠ™ȱ˜ȱ‘ŽȱŒ‘Š—Žœȱ ŽȱŒŠ—ȱ—˜ȱ•˜—Ž›ȱŠŸ˜’ǯȱ

Executive Summary xxvii

system, the connectivity and movement of species, and the extensive and diverse uses

of marine resources and services that occur throughout the Nation Therefore, climate

mean sea level rise of more than 1 meter above present day sea level by 2100

• Reductions in ice may occur more rapidly than previously suggested by coupled

Š’›ȬœŽŠȬ’ŒŽȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱ–˜Ž•œǯȱ‘ŽœŽȱ–˜Ž•œȱ–Š¢ȱ‘ŠŸŽȱ˜ŸŽ›Žœ’–ŠŽȱ’ŒŽȱ‘’Œ”—ŽœœDzȱ

more recent modeling predicts that a seasonal ice-free state could occur as early

as 2030

řǯȲ‘Žȱ˜ŒŽŠ—œȱ™•Š¢ȱŠ—ȱ’–™˜›Š—ȱ›˜•Žȱ’—ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱ›Žž•Š’˜—ȱ‘›˜ž‘ȱ‘Žȱž™Š”ŽȱŠ—ȱœŽ-šžŽœ›Š’˜—ȱ˜ȱŠ—‘›˜™˜Ž—’Œȱ2

• The annual accumulation of atmospheric CO2 has increased In 2010, the overall

CO2ȱŒ˜—ŒŽ—›Š’˜—ȱ Šœȱřşȱ™Ž›ŒŽ—ȱŠ‹˜ŸŽȱ‘ŽȱŒ˜—ŒŽ—›Š’˜—ȱŠȱ‘ŽȱœŠ›ȱ˜ȱ‘ŽȱIndustrial Revolution in 1750

• ŒŽŠ—ȱ ŠŽ›ȱ‘˜•œȱŠ™™›˜¡’–ŠŽ•¢ȱśŖȱ’–Žœȱ–˜›Žȱ2 than the atmosphere and

‘˜•œȱ‘Žȱ–Š“˜›’¢ȱ˜ȱ‘Šȱ’—ȱ‘ŽȱŽŽ™Ž›ǰȱŒ˜•Ž›ȱ ŠŽ›œDzȱ‘˜ ŽŸŽ›ǰȱ‘ŽȱŠ‹’•’¢ȱ˜ȱoceans to absorb CO2

ŒŠ›‹˜—ȱ’œȱ›ŽŽ››Žȱ˜ȱŠœȱȃŒ˜ŠœŠ•ȱ‹•žŽȱŒŠ›‹˜—ǯȄȱ—˜›ž—ŠŽ•¢ǰȱ˜ž›ȱ—Š’˜—ȱ‘Šœȱ•˜œȱ

–˜›Žȱ‘Š—ȱ‘Š•ȱ˜ȱ’œȱ Ž•Š—œȱ’—ȱ‘Žȱ™ŠœȱŘŖŖȱ¢ŽŠ›œǯȱŚǯȲ‘Žȱ˜ŒŽŠ—œȱŠ‹œ˜›‹ȱŒŠ›‹˜—ȱ’˜¡’ŽǰȱŒŠžœ’—ȱŠȱœŽ›’Žœȱ˜ȱŒ‘Ž–’ŒŠ•ȱ›ŽŠŒ’˜—œȱ‘Šȱ›ŽžŒŽȱ

‘˜ ŽŸŽ›ǰȱ’—ȱŒ˜ŠœŠ•ȱŠ›ŽŠœȱ‘’œȱ—ž–‹Ž›ȱ–Š¢ȱ‹Žȱ–žŒ‘ȱ‘’‘Ž›ȱ˜••˜ ’—ȱž™ Ž••’—ȱevents

œ›žŒž›ŽȱŽ¡™ŽŒŽȱ˜ŸŽ›ȱ‘Žȱ—Ž¡ȱŒŽ—ž›¢ǯȱ‘Žȱ’–™ŠŒȱ˜ȱœ˜›–ȱœž›Žœȱ ’••ȱ‹Žȱ

›ŽŠŽ›ȱ˜›ȱ‘ŽȱœŠ–Žȱ›ŽŠœ˜—œȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ‘ŽȱŽ¡™ŽŒŽȱ›’œŽȱ’—ȱœŽŠȱ•ŽŸŽ•ǯŜǯȲ ’ŸŽ—ȱ‘ŠȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŠ—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—œȱ’—Ž›ŠŒȱ˜ȱ™›˜žŒŽȱ’—›ŠȬȱŠ—ȱ’—Ž›ȬŽŒŠŠ•ȱŸŠ›’Š‹’•’¢ȱ

’—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱŒž››Ž—œǰȱž™ Ž••’—ǰȱŠ—ȱ‹Šœ’—ȬœŒŠ•ŽȱŒ’›Œž•Š’˜—ǰȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—Žȱ ’••ȱ•’”Ž•¢ȱ

’—ĚžŽ—ŒŽȱ ‘ŽœŽȱ ’–™˜›Š—ȱ ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱ ŽŠž›Žœǰȱ Š•‘˜ž‘ȱ ‘Žȱ Š‹’•’¢ȱ ˜ȱ ŽŽŒȱ Š—ȱ ™›˜“ŽŒȱ

œžŒ‘ȱ’–™ŠŒœȱ’œȱ•˜ ǯȱ

• Ž•’—ȱ˜ȱ™˜•Š›ȱ’ŒŽȱ ’••ȱ›ŽžŒŽȱ‘ŽȱœŠ•’—’¢ǰȱŠ—ȱ‘žœȱ‘ŽȱŽ—œ’¢ǰȱ˜ȱ™˜•Š›ȱ ŠŽ›œǰȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱŒ˜ž•ȱ ŽŠ”Ž—ȱ‘Žȱ›ŠŽȱŠȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱ‘’œȱ ŠŽ›ȱœ’—”œǰȱ™˜œœ’‹•¢ȱimpairing circulation

Executive Summary xxix

non-climatic stressors such as pollution, overharvesting, disease and invasive species

• Climate-related stressors such as changes in temperature can operate as threat

–ž•’™•’Ž›œǰȱ ˜›œŽ—’—ȱ‘Žȱ’–™ŠŒœȱ˜ȱ—˜—ȬŒ•’–Š’Œȱœ›Žœœ˜›œǯ

• Opportunities exist for ameliorating some of the impacts of climate change

through reductions in non-climatic stressors at local-to-regional scales

• Observed responses to ongoing environmental change often vary in magnitude

across space and time, suggesting that extrapolations of responses from one

location to another may be challenging

• —ȱŠ’’˜—ȱ˜ȱ›ŠžŠ•ȱŽŒ•’—Žœȱ’—ȱŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–ȱž—Œ’˜—ǰȱ™˜Ž—’Š•ȱ‘›Žœ‘˜•ȱŽěŽŒœǰȱ

or “tipping points,” that could result in rapid ecosystem change are a particular

area of concern

Chapter 4: Impacts of Climate Change on Human Uses of the Ocean

ŗǯȲ’—’ęŒŠ—ȱ ŽěŽŒœȱ ˜ȱ Œ•’–ŠŽȱ Œ‘Š—Žȱ ˜—ȱ Š••ȱ œŽŒ˜›œȱ ™Ž›Š’—’—ȱ ˜ȱ ‘ž–Š—ȱ žœŽœȱ ˜ȱ ‘Žȱ

˜ŒŽŠ—ǰȱ’—Œ•ž’—ȱ‹žȱ—˜ȱ•’–’Žȱ˜ȱ꜑Ž›’ŽœǰȱŽ—Ž›¢ǰȱ›Š—œ™˜›Š’˜—ǰȱœŽŒž›’¢ǰȱ‘ž–Š—ȱhealth, tourism, and maritime governance, are already being observed and are pre-dicted to continue into the future

• ˜–ŽȱŽěŽŒœȱŠ›Žȱ™›Ž’ŒŽȱ˜ȱ‹Žȱȃ™˜œ’’ŸŽǰȄȱ’—ȱ‘Šȱ‘Ž¢ȱŽ¡™Š—ȱ‘ŽȱŽ¡Ž—ȱ˜ȱ

’—’Ÿ’žŠ•ȱœŽŒ˜›œǰȱ ‘’•Žȱ˜‘Ž›œȱŠ›Žȱ™›Ž’ŒŽȱ˜ȱ‹Žȱȃ—ŽŠ’ŸŽǰȄȱ’—ȱ‘Šȱ‘Ž¢ȱreduce the ability of humans to use the ocean in a given sector, and virtually all

ŽěŽŒœȱ ’••ȱ›Žœž•ȱ’—ȱœ˜–Žȱ’œ›’‹ž’˜—Š•ȱŒ‘Š—Žœȱ’—ȱ‘˜ ȱŠ—ȱ ‘Ž›ŽǰȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ‹¢ȱ ‘˜–ǰȱ–Š›’—Žȱ›Žœ˜ž›ŒŽœȱŠ›ŽȱžœŽǯ

• ˜œȱ˜ȱ‘ŽȱŽěŽŒœȱ˜ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—Žȱ˜—ȱǯǯȱ꜑Ž›’Žœȱ ’••ȱœŽ–ȱ›˜–ȱ‘ŽȱŒ‘Š—Žœȱ

˜ȱ‘Žȱ꜑ȱœ˜Œ”œȱ‹›˜ž‘ȱŠ‹˜žȱ‹¢ȱ’›ŽŒȱŠ—ȱ’—’›ŽŒȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱ’–™ŠŒœȱ˜—ȱ

™›˜žŒ’Ÿ’¢ȱŠ—ȱ•˜ŒŠ’˜—Dzȱ˜‘Ž›œȱœŽ–ȱ›˜–ȱ’–™ŠŒœȱ‘ŠȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱ‘Šœȱ˜—ȱ‘Žȱ꜑-Ž›’Žœȱ‘Ž–œŽ•ŸŽœȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ꜑’—ȬŽ™Ž—Ž—ȱŒ˜––ž—’’ŽœȱŠŒ›˜œœȱ‘ŽȱŒ˜ž—›¢ǰȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱŒ˜ž•ȱŽ¡™Ž›’Ž—ŒŽȱŒ‘Š—Žœȱ’—ȱ’œ›’‹ž’˜—ȱŠ—ȱŠ‹ž—Š—ŒŽȱ˜ȱ‘Ž’›ȱŠŸŠ’•Š‹•Žȱ

• The scale and scope of climate impacts such as increased economic access and

ŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–ȱœ‘’œȱ’—ȱ™˜•Š›ȱŠ›ŽŠœȱǻ›Œ’Œǰȱ—Š›Œ’ŒǼȱŠ›ŽȱŠ•›ŽŠ¢ȱ‘ŠŸ’—ȱœ’—’ęŒŠ—ȱ

’–™ŠŒœȱ˜—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱžœŽœȱŠ—ȱžœŽ›œǯȱ‘Ž›Žȱ’œȱŠȱ‘’‘ȱ•’”Ž•’‘˜˜ȱ‘Šȱ‘ŽœŽȱ’–™ŠŒœȱ ’••ȱ›˜ ȱŠ—ȱ‘ŠŸŽȱœŽ›’˜žœȱŒ˜—œŽšžŽ—ŒŽœȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ˜™™˜›ž—’’Žœȱ˜—ȱ‘ž–Š—ȱuses of the oceans in the future

Executive Summary xxxi

food insecurity and malnutrition, rising pollutant-related respiratory problems,

and spread of infectious disease

ŚǯȲ–™ŠŒœȱ ˜ȱ Œ•’–ŠŽȱ Œ‘Š—Žȱ ˜—ȱ ‘ž–Š—ȱ œ˜Œ’Š•ȱ Š—ȱ ŽŒ˜—˜–’Œȱ œ¢œŽ–œȱ ™›˜Ÿ’Žȱ Œ›’’ŒŠ•ȱ

insight into societal responses and adaptation options

• ’’˜—Š•ȱ’œŒ’™•’—Š›¢ȱŠ—ȱ’—Ž›’œŒ’™•’—Š›¢ȱ›ŽœŽŠ›Œ‘ȱ ’••ȱ‹Žȱ—ŽŒŽœœŠ›¢ȱ˜ȱ

’–™›˜ŸŽȱž—Ž›œŠ—’—ȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱ’—Ž›ŠŒ’˜—œȱ‹Ž ŽŽ—ȱ™‘¢œ’ŒŠ•ǰȱ‹’˜•˜’ŒŠ•ǰȱ

economic, and social systems in the future

Chapter 5: International Implications of Climate Change

• ‘Žȱ™˜Ž—’Š•ȱ˜›ȱœ™Š’Š•ȱ’œ™•ŠŒŽ–Ž—ȱ˜ȱŠšžŠ’Œȱ›Žœ˜ž›ŒŽœȱŠ—ȱ™Ž˜™•ŽȱŠœȱŠȱ›Žœž•ȱ

˜ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—Žȱ’–™ŠŒœȱ ’••ȱ›Žšž’›ŽȱŽ¡’œ’—ȱ›Ž’˜—Š•ȱœ›žŒž›ŽœȱŠ—ȱ™›˜ŒŽœœŽœȱ

to be strengthened or enhanced

Śǯȱ •’–ŠŽȱ Œ‘Š—Žȱ  ’••ȱ ŠěŽŒȱ ›Š—œ™˜›Š’˜—ȱ Š—ȱ œŽŒž›’¢ȱ ’œœžŽœȱ ’—ȱ ‹˜‘ȱ ‘Žȱ œ‘˜›ȱ Š—ȱlong term

• Changes in available shipping lanes in the Arctic created by a loss of sea ice have generated an expanded geopolitical discussion involving the relationship among politics, territory, and state sovereignty on local, national, and international scales

tential to be a transformational tool in the implementation of improved coastal policy and management

śǯȱŒŒ˜ž—’—ȱ˜›ȱ‘ŽȱŒŠ›‹˜—ȱœŽšžŽœ›Š’˜—ȱŸŠ•žŽȱ˜ȱŒ˜ŠœŠ•ȱ–Š›’—Žȱœ¢œŽ–œȱ‘Šœȱ‘Žȱ™˜-• A number of countries including Indonesia, Costa Rica, and Ecuador have

iden-’ꮍȱȃ•žŽȱŠ›‹˜—ȄȱŠœȱŠȱ™›’˜›’¢ȱ’œœžŽȱŠ—ȱŠ›ŽȱŒž››Ž—•¢ȱŽŸŽ•˜™’—ȱœ›ŠŽ’Žœȱand approaches

Chapter 6: Ocean Management Challenges, Adaptation Approaches, and Opportunities in a Changing ClimateŗǯȲ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—Žȱ™›ŽœŽ—œȱ‹˜‘ȱŒ‘Š••Ž—ŽœȱŠ—ȱ˜™™˜›ž—’’Žœȱ˜›ȱ–Š›’—Žȱ›Žœ˜ž›ŒŽȱ–Š—-

ŠŽ›œȱŠ—ȱŽŒ’œ’˜—ȱ–Š”Ž›œǯȱ

• —ȱŒ˜–™Š›’œ˜—ȱ˜ȱŽ››Žœ›’Š•ǰȱ›Žœ‘ ŠŽ›ǰȱŠ—ȱŒ˜ŠœŠ•ȱœ¢œŽ–œǰȱ›Ž•Š’ŸŽ•¢ȱŽ ȱadaptation actions have been designed and implemented for marine systems

‘Žȱ™›˜Ÿ’œ’˜—ȱŠ—ȱŠŒŒŽœœ’‹’•’¢ȱ˜ȱ‘’‘ȬšžŠ•’¢ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱ›ŽŠ›’—ȱ›Žœ˜•ž’˜—œȱ

’œȱŒ˜––Ž—œž›ŠŽȱ ’‘ȱ‘ŽȱœŒŠ•ŽœȱŠȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱŠŠ™Š’˜—ȱŽŒ’œ’˜—œȱŠ›Žȱ–ŠŽǯ

• œŽ›Ȭ›’Ž—•¢ȱ˜˜•œǰȱž’Š—ŒŽǰȱŠ—ȱœŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽœȱŠ›ŽȱŽ–Ž›’—ȱ˜ȱ˜œŽ›ȱ’Š•˜žŽǰȱ›˜ ȱcommunities of practice, and inform and support decisions to enhance ocean resilience in the face of climate change

řǯȲ™™˜›ž—’’Žœȱ ˜›ȱ ŠŠ™Š’˜—ȱ ’—Œ•žŽȱ ’—Œ˜›™˜›Š’˜—ȱ ˜ȱ Œ•’–ŠŽȱ Œ‘Š—Žȱ ’—˜ȱ Ž¡’œ’—ȱ

˜ŒŽŠ—ȱ™˜•’Œ’Žœǰȱ™›ŠŒ’ŒŽœǰȱŠ—ȱ–Š—ŠŽ–Ž—ȱŽě˜›œǯ

Executive Summary xxxiii

Chapter 7: Sustaining the Assessment of Climate Impacts on

Oceans and Marine Resources

advance assessment of impacts of climate change on oceans and marine resources

• Identify and collect information on a set of core indicators of the condition of

›ŠŒ”ȱŠ—ȱŽ•’ŸŽ›ȱžœŽž•ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱ˜—ȱ‘ŽœŽȱ’—’ŒŠ˜›œȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ˜‘Ž›ȱ™‘¢œ-ical, chem›ŠŒ”ȱŠ—ȱŽ•’ŸŽ›ȱžœŽž•ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱ˜—ȱ‘ŽœŽȱ’—’ŒŠ˜›œȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ˜‘Ž›ȱ™‘¢œ-ical, biolog›ŠŒ”ȱŠ—ȱŽ•’ŸŽ›ȱžœŽž•ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱ˜—ȱ‘ŽœŽȱ’—’ŒŠ˜›œȱŠœȱ Ž••ȱŠœȱ˜‘Ž›ȱ™‘¢œ-ical, and social/economic impacts of climate change on

oceans and marine resources

• Increase capacity and coordination of existing observing systems to collect,

climate change on marine ecosystems

• Build and support mechanisms for sustained coordination and communication

‹Ž ŽŽ—ȱŽŒ’œ’˜—ȱ–Š”Ž›œȱŠ—ȱœŒ’Ž—ŒŽȱ™›˜Ÿ’Ž›œȱ˜ȱŽ—œž›Žȱ‘Žȱ–˜œȱŒ›’’ŒŠ•ȱ’—˜›-mation needs related to impacts, vulnerabilities, mitigation, and adaptation of

ocean ecosystems in a changing climate are being met

• ž’•ȱŠ—ȱœž™™˜›ȱ–ŽŒ‘Š—’œ–œȱ˜›ȱŽĴ’—ȱŠ—ȱœ‘Š›’—ȱ’—˜›–Š’˜—ȱŠ—ȱ

›Žœ˜ž›ŒŽœȱ˜—ȱ’–™ŠŒœǰȱŸž•—Ž›Š‹’•’’ŽœǰȱŠ—ȱŠŠ™Š’˜—ȱ˜ȱǯǯȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱ

in a changing climate

• national partners for assessing and addressing impacts of climate change and

ž’•ȱŠ—ȱœž™™˜›ȱ–ŽŒ‘Š—’œ–œȱ ’‘ȱ—Ž’‘‹˜›’—ȱŒ˜ž—›’ŽœȱŠ—ȱ˜‘Ž›ȱ’—Ž›-˜ŒŽŠ—ȱŠŒ’’ęŒŠ’˜—ȱ˜—ȱ–Š›’—ŽȱŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱ˜ȱ”Ž¢ȱ’—Ž›Žœȱ˜ȱ‘Žȱǯǯ

˜•-lectively, climatic and non-climatic pressures are having profound and diverse impacts

on marine ecosystems (Figure 1-2b) These impacts are expected to increase in the future

CO2 in marine ecosystems are increasing ocean temperatures (IPCC, 2007a) and acidity

(Doney et al., 2009) Increasing temperatures produce a variety of other ocean changes

’—Œ•ž’—ȱ›’œ’—ȱœŽŠȱ•ŽŸŽ•ǰȱ’—Œ›ŽŠœ’—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱœ›Š’ęŒŠ’˜—ǰȱŽŒ›ŽŠœŽȱŽ¡Ž—ȱ˜ȱœŽŠȱ’ŒŽǰȱŠ—ȱ

OI 10.5822/978-1-61091-480-2_1,

© 2013 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

R Griffis and J Howard (eds.), Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate: A Technical Input to the 2013

National Climate Assessment, NCA Regional Input Reports, D

et al., 2012) These and other changes in ocean physical and chemical conditions, such

as changes in oxygen concentrations and nutrient availability, are impacting a variety

of ocean biological features including primary production, phenology, species

distribu-’˜—ǰȱœ™ŽŒ’Žœȱ’—Ž›ŠŒ’˜—œǰȱŠ—ȱŒ˜––ž—’¢ȱŒ˜–™˜œ’’˜—ǰȱ ‘’Œ‘ȱ’—ȱž›—ȱŒŠ—ȱ’–™ŠŒȱŸ’Š•ȱ

˜ŒŽŠ—ȱœŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽœȱŠŒ›˜œœȱ‘ŽȱŠ’˜—ȱǻ’ž›ŽȱŗȬřǼǯȱ›˜“ŽŒ’˜—œȱ˜ȱžž›ŽȱŒ‘Š—Žȱœ‘˜ ȱ‘Šȱ’ȱ

’œȱ•’”Ž•¢ȱ‘Šȱ–Š›’—ŽȱŽŒ˜œ¢œŽ–œȱž—Ž›ȱǯǯȱ“ž›’œ’Œ’˜—ȱŠ—ȱǯǯȱ’—Ž›Žœȱ’—Ž›—Š’˜—Š••¢ȱ ’••ȱŒ˜—’—žŽȱ˜ȱ‹ŽȱŠěŽŒŽȱ‹¢ȱŠ—‘›˜™˜Ž—’ŒȬ›’ŸŽ—ȱŒ•’–ŠŽȱŒ‘Š—ŽȱŠ—ȱ›’œ’—ȱ•ŽŸŽ•œȱ˜ȱatmospheric CO2 Interactions of climate impacts vary by region and complexity Figure

ŗȬŚȱ’œȱŠ—ȱ’••žœ›Š’ŸŽȱŽ¡Š–™•Žȱ˜ȱ‘’œȱ’—ȱ‘ŽȱŠ•’˜›—’Šȱž››Ž—ǯȱ1.1 Scope and Purpose

Caribbean Sea Gulf of Mexico

California Current

Pacific Islands Ecosystem Complex

Northeast Shelf Southeast Shelf

Legend

noaa_eco_outer_eez

US EEZ States

Alaska Ecosystem Complex

Introduction 3

1000 1800 1900 2000 2100

300 200

500 400

600 700 800 900

7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

6 km

2 ) 2

–10 –5 0 5 10

22 J) 3

–0.6 –0.4 –0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

U.S coastal population Anthropogenic nitrogen fixation North American marine biological invasions World population

Cumulative seagrass loss Global marine wild fish harvest

Global mariculture production Cumulative global hypoxic zones

Cumulative Caribbean coral cover loss

Cumulative mangrove loss

Figure 1-2 (a) Changes in (1) global mean sea level (data starting in 1800 with an upward trend;

Jevrejeva et al., 2008), (2) summer Arctic sea-ice area (data starting just prior to 1900 with a downward

trend; Walsh and Chapman, 2001),(3) 0-700-m ocean heat content (data starting around the mid 1900's

with an upward trend; Levitus et al., 2009),(4) sea-surface temperature (data starting around the

mid-1800's with a general upward trend; Rayner et al., 2006), (5) mean ocean surface pH (data starting

around 1000 with an downward trend into the future; NRC, 2010b), and (6) pCO2 (data starting around

1000 with an upward trend tinto the future; Petit et al., 1999) Shaded region denotes projected changes

emissions scenario with rapid population growth (b) Time series (as identified in figure key): trends

in world population (solid line, data starting in the 1800s with an upward trend; Goldewijk, 2005), U.S

coastal population (solid line, data staring in the 1950s with a general upward trend; Wilson and Fischetti,

2010), anthropogenic nitrogen fixation (solid line, data starting in the late 1850s with a general upward

trend; Davidson, 2009), North American marine biological invasions (solid line, data starting in the 1800s

with a general upward trend; Ruiz et al., 2000), global marine wild fish harvest (solid line, data starting

in the 1950s with a general upward trend; Food Agricultural Organization [FAO] U.N., 2010), cumulative

seagrass loss (dotted line, data starting around the mid 1920's with a general upward trend and a sharp

increase after the mid 1970s; Waycott et al., 2009), cumulative Caribbean coral cover loss (dotted line,

data starting around the mid 1970s with a general upward trend; Gardner et al., 2003), cumulative

mangrove loss (dotted line, data starting around the mid 1920's with a general upward trend and a sharp

increase after the mid 1970s; FAO U.N., 2007), cumulative global hypoxic zones (dotted line, data starting

in the early 1900's with a general upward trend; Diaz and Rosenberg, 2008), and global mariculture

production (dotted line, data starting around 1950 with an upward trend; FAO U.N., 2010) All time series

in (b) are normalized to 1980 levels Trends with <1.5-fold variation are depicted as solid lines (left axis),

and trends with >1.5-fold variation are depicted as dotted lines (right axis) (Source: Doney et al., 2012).

• ŽŒ’˜—œȱŘȬŚȱŠœœŽœœȱ‘ŽȱœŠŽȱ˜ȱ”—˜ •ŽŽȱ˜—ȱ‘Žȱ’–™ŠŒœȱŠ—ȱŸž•—Ž›Š‹’•’’Žœȱ˜ȱocean physical and chemical conditions (Section 2), biological systems (Section řǼǰȱŠ—ȱ˜ŒŽŠ—ȱžœŽœȱŠ—ȱœŽ›Ÿ’ŒŽœȱǻŽŒ’˜—ȱŚǼȱ’—ȱŠȱŒ‘Š—’—ȱŒ•’–ŠŽǯȱ

• Section 5 assesses the international implications of these climate impacts