will the internet take the place of television

“Websites” were thought to be the most useful “to search for something of interest.” Except for item 4, as far as assessment of the various media, the results for the “use both” categor

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Will the Internet Take the Place of Television?

A Survey of Media and Daily Life

KAMIMURA Shuichi and IDA Mieko

The sight of people walking along the street talking on a mobile phone is no longer strange or unsettling, while public telephones, upon which we once depended so heavily, seem to be vanishing rapidly In varying degrees, to be sure, the spread of new media is changing people’s ways of life and attitudes

In the first part of this report, we analyze how users of the Internet and

other new media continue to use and perceive conventional media The second

part examines to what extent the spread of mobile phones and the Internet has changed people’s lives and the society in general We will also attempt to

assess the extent and impact of such changes

Survey Outline

Public interest in mobile phones and the Internet is high, and many surveys and analyses have already been done Most, however, were conducted among

a relatively limited number of “users.” Because these surveys targeted part of

a special group, little of their data could be used to situate and compare results

vis-a-vis the Japanese population as a whole

The survey discussed here was conducted after mobile phone and Internet use had begun to spread, when it was believed that a sufficient response rate could be obtained using a random sample of the population as a whole, rather than relying on a specific group The survey’s timing was effective because the rapid changes since the inception of these technologies are still fresh in the

memory of users

Content-wise, in an attempt to gain a broader perspective than previous studies, the survey asked questions not only regarding the use of media, but also about changes in daily activities, including television viewing, and about images of the advanced information society

The survey was carried out between March 2 (Fri.) and March 11 (Sun.)

2001 Questionnaires were distributed by hand to 3,600 persons sixteen years and older throughout Japan, and 2,818 valid questionnaires were collected (validity rate 78.3%) See the end of this article for a sample of the questionnaire

51

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52 KAMIMURA SHUICHI AND IDA MIEKO

The questionnaire was made up of four parts: (1) use of mobile telephones; (2) use of the Internet; (3) use of media, including television; and (4) daily life activities and attitudes, etc The questions under (1) and (2) were directed at

users and included a large number of questions Non-users needed only to

answer parts (3) and (4), but since the number of questions on the entire ques-

tionnaire was quite large, it was distributed and collected by hand

Please note that the survey questions cited in the text and figures may be abbreviated For the full information, please refer to the survey results beginning on p 76

MEDIA USE BY INTERNET USERS This section analyzes how new media users think of and use conventional media A substantial part of the questionnaire asks about respondents’ use of radio, television, print media, and so on

Profile of Internet Users

Use of mobile phones and the Internet, as shown in Figure 1, is closely con-

nected to age and occupation (Note that in this report “use of the Internet” refers to accessing the Web via a personal computer A “mobile phone user”

is defined as one who possesses a cellular or PHS mobile phone, and an

“Internet user” as one who accesses the Internet even infrequently.) In terms

of age, the lower age brackets display the highest usage rate, and in terms of occupation, clerical and technical workers, managers and professionals, and

students are the most numerous

Bulk of new media users are under forty

In order to explore usage-related factors other than age and occupation, the study analyzed use within four specific age brackets between the 16 to 49 year range, for which mobile phone and Internet use is widespread The results, reported in this section and the accompanying figures, are all based on the survey findings for this age range

The bulk of persons 49 and under (74 percent) own mobile phones, and can

be roughly divided into two groups: users of mobile phones only, and users of

both mobile phones and the Internet In other words, they are divided based on whether or not they use the Internet Assuming Internet users to be users of

newer technology, this report compares them to those who do not use the Internet in order to identify the characteristics of each and determine how they are different.

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 53 Figure 1 Mobile Phone and Internet Patterns of Use

By Age and Gender

Both mobile phone and Internet

Female 70 and over

Skilled Clerical and technical

Management and professional |

Internet users are mostly white-collar workers and students

First let us note the basic attributes of the two groups Statistics for age and gender, occupation, as well as household income are given in Figure 2

Figures for “use both” respondents, it will be noted, are highest for the

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Figure 2 Demographic Data

Clerical and technical 19 30 10 24 8 Management and professional 2 3 1 + 0 Specialist, freelance, other Si 6 4 7 4

Unemployed 3 Z 3 + 6 Breakdown by household annual income

* “A]]” ineludes 25 respondents in the category of “other.”

male 20-29 age bracket, for clerical and technical occupations, and for students, and exceed 25 percent for households with an annual income of ¥10 million and over Characteristic of the “mobile phone only” respondents is

their almost equal distribution among men and women 20-49, among those in

skilled jobs, sales and service jobs, and housewives

Persons who use neither mobile phones nor the Internet (“use neither”) are,

by age and gender, mostly women in their thirties and forties, and by

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occupa-WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 55

tion, housewives In other words, in the 16-49 age range the majority of non-

users are housewives

Media Use, Assessment, and Attitudes

Based on this profile of users of both mobile phones and the Internet and of

mobile-phone-only users, let us examine the characteristics and differences between the two in terms of media use, assessment, and attitudes toward use

in daily life

Media environment and conditions of use

First, in order to observe features of the respondents’ media environment, apart from the question of whether the respondent personally uses those media, we have compared the percentage of media equipment in the home and have found that the rate of ownership for “use both” respondents is higher for almost all media equipment types (Figure 3) Internet users appear to live sur- rounded by various kinds of media

In terms of frequency of use for other media, “use both” responses are

Figure 3 Percentage of Ownership (%)

All Use both Mobile phone

only Radio/cassette deck 84 84 84

TV with subtitled broadcasts 10 10 12

Satellite broadcast viewing equipped 37 44 34

CS digital broadcast viewing equipped 5 Z +

CATV viewing equipped 14 15 13

All = all respondents age 16-49

*Shaded figures indicate which had the significantly higher inclination: “use both” or “mobile phone only” (This is applied in the following figures as well.)

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Figure 4 Frequency and Ease of Use (%)

Use more than once per month Easy to use

AI |Use both Mobile phone | All | Use both Mobile phone

only only Newspapers 86 90 83 67 67 65 Books, magazines, manga| 86 93 80 71 74 69

Cassette tape, CD, MD| 80 89 76 75 84 70

Video games 28 36 25 32 41 27 Internet 4] 82 6 28 52 8 Regular telephone 84 87 78 73 74 70 Mobile telephone 75 98 92 64 84 70 Letter writing 15 18 12 17 18 14

All = All respondents age 16-49

Figure 5 Experience with Use (%)

All Use both Mobile phone

only Use remote control for television 90 92 90 Withdraw money from bank or post office using ATM| 70 77 63 Write with a PC or word processor 41 67 20 Use timer for VCR recording 51 59 46 Input letters/characters on mobile phone 50 Ae 57 Download files from the Internet 27 52 7

higher as well (Figure 4) Clearly “use both” respondents make use of a vari-

ety of media on a daily basis

Respondents that found various media “easy to use,” moreover, were more

likely to be “use both” respondents This shows they have little difficulty using a variety of media

“Use both” respondents were also more frequent users of equipment that forms a regular part of daily life, such as the automated teller machines

(ATMs) at banks (Figure 5) Users of new media devices are accustomed to

dealing with all kinds of electronic devices in the course of their daily lives

“Use both” respondents, in other words, are more vigorous users of media

than those who only use mobile phones

Internet users are keenly interested in digital satellite broadcasting Digital

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 57

satellite broadcasting is among the new forms of media to appear in the wake

of mobile phones and the Internet Begun in December 2000 in Japan, digital broadcasting functions much like the Internet, allowing users not only to receive but to send data with interactive communication features not possible with televisions until now

Interest in digital satellite broadcasting is high for “use both” respondents (Figure 6) Aspects of digital satellite broadcasting with greatest appeal to

“use both” respondents are the new functions like high-definition images, data broadcasting, and interactive services specific to digital satellite broadcasting (Figure 7) Noting that the number of respondents interested in data broadcasting and interactive services is about half those interested in high-definition images, it seems clear that the latter has far greater appeal for Internet users

Figure 6 Interest in Digital Satellite Broadcasting

Interested Not interested

5

All Use both |

Mobile phone only |

All respondents age 16-49 Figure 7 Appeal of Digital Satellite Broadcasting

Figure 8 Services People Desire to Try (%)

All Use both Mobile phone only Onscreen TV program guides 25 31 21

Set video-recording timer by remote control] 35 40 33

News on demand 39 42 32

Weather forecast on demand 35 37 34

Participate in TV programs 25 27 25

Access program-related information 26 31 22

Television [online] shopping 12 12 14

Nothing in particular 18 16 18

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Services that “use both” respondents show a stronger desire to use than

“mobile phone only” respondents are the information-acquisition functions, including “onscreen TV program guides,” “timed video-recording by remote control,” “news on demand,” and “access to program-related information”

(Figure 8) Here, too, “use both” respondents indicated a high level of interest

in the new media (digital satellite broadcasting), and showed interest in using its functions even though they are very similar to those provided via the

Internet

Assessment of media in daily life

How do the “use both” respondents described above, who use new media

Figure 9 Assessment of Media (“Use both” respondents)

(%) (G) @) () (A) | (©) @) © | &

E-mail 13 8 2 0 0 0 2 1 Letter writing 12 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 Home telephone 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mobile telephone 27 L + 1 0 0 1 3

Talk with family and friends | 38 49 ˆ 1 1 2 4 6 | 4

Cassette tapes, CDs, MDs 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 Movies and videos 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0

Newspapers 0 0 0 0 2 25 10 17 28 2 Books 0 0 2 3 6 0 1 267 3 Information magazines 0 1 1 1 3 1 3 14 25 34

Karaoke 0 3 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 Video games 0 0 1 3 7 0 0 0 0 1 Weekly magazines 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 1 1 5 Radio 0 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 None of the above 4 15 20 5 3 1 1 2 5 2

(A) To learn about current events

(B) To enjoy fully

(C) To gain knowledge for purposes of work

(D) To increase my general knowledge

(E) To rest and relax

(F) To consider political and social issues

(G) To convey thoughts and feelings to others

(H) To search for something of interest

(J) To deepen interchange with others

‘= highest percentage value

= second-highest, or over 10%

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devices frequently and are keenly interested in new media, assess various

media in the context of their daily lives? From among sixteen types of media,

respondents were asked to select the one they found to be most useful to achieve each of ten different objectives (A to J) Figure 9 shows the results,

with “use both” respondents’ choices clustered into groups of similar content Four observations may be made from these results

1 In order “to convey thoughts and feelings to others” and “to deepen interchange with others,” “use both” respondents indicated the most effective

media was to “talk with family and friends.”

2 In order “to rest and relax,” the largest number of them chose to use

“music cassette tapes, CDs, MDs” while for the entertainment and acqui-

sition-of-primary-information functions—‘to enjoy fully,” “to kill time.”

and “to learn about current events”—the preferred media was “television.”

3 In order “to consider political and social issues,” “to increase my general knowledge,” and “to gain knowledge for purposes of work,” “newspapers” were the preferred media

4 “Websites” were thought to be the most useful “to search for something of interest.”

Except for item 4, as far as assessment of the various media, the results for the

“use both” category of respondents show the same tendencies as for the

“mobile phone only” and “use neither” categories Even among those who uti-

lize the Internet, the media of greatest usefulness are conventional media like television and newspapers These findings demonstrate that new media, like

mobile phones and the Internet, have not taken the place of older media With regard to item 4 above, it will be noted that under “to search for something of interest,’ the second largest number of responses after “websites” is

“information magazines” (johoshi; magazines that provide practical and spe- cialized information) This may be because websites play a role similar to information magazines in that they respond to people’s desire for specific kinds of information

Next, the survey compared “mobile phone only” and “use both” respon-

dents’ assessments of the sixteen different media (Figure 10) “Mobile phone

only” respondents were more inclined toward “talking with family and friends,” “television,” “newspapers,” and “information magazines”; but, while

“use both” respondents naturally gravitated toward “e-mail” and “websites,” they also indicated a higher inclination to make use of “music cassette tapes,

CDs, and MDs,” “movies and videos,” as well as “books.” These are not media obtainable without active effort; books in particular must be sought out and then read and understood

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Figure 10 Assessment of Media, Comparing “Use Both” with “Mobile Phone Only”

(G) To convey thoughts and feelings to others

(H) To search for something of interest

(I) To kill time

(J) To deepen interchange with others

@= Significantly higher for “use both”

Os Significantly higher for “mobile phone only”

Figure 11 Type to Search Until Satisfied

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 61 Figure 12 Type to Want to Obtain Something Desired Right Away

yes no can’n say either way N/A

All | Use both Mobile phone

only Don’t care who it is; I just want to talk to somebody 11 16 13 Want to transmit thoughts and feelings to others 36 4I 36 Want to share my hobbies and talents with others 24 30 24 Want to inspire and influence others 22 31 18

Similarly, in order to obtain needed information from websites, the user

must search the Internet, examine the results, and conduct further, more

refined searches Internet users, it would appear, do not hesitate to pursue the

information they want, whether on the Internet or in traditional print media Active pursuit of information

As shown above, “use both” respondents tend to be more active and skillful

users of media and take an aggressive stance toward information They appreciate the value of information To identify the factors that contribute to that inclination, let us look at their daily attitudes

Regarding attitudes toward pursuing information, the survey asked respondents whether they were the type to search for something they want until satisfied More than 60 percent of “use both” respondents answered “yes,” a higher rate than for “mobile phone only” users (Figure 11)

Respondents who “want to obtain something desired right away” constitut-

ed more than half of “use both” respondents, showing a strong tendency for instant gratification, as illustrated in Figure 12

The Internet is a tremendously effective means for simultaneously fulfilling the impulses to “search until satisfied” and to “obtain something desired right away.” This may be why those who have a strong urge to search for and obtain information are such active and vigorous users of the Internet.

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Among Internet users, moreover, many are not only receivers of informa-

tion but are strongly inclined to be generators or transmitters of information themselves As shown in Figure 13, the number of people who have this urge

to communicate with others is markedly higher for “use both” respondents Among people who use both mobile phones and the Internet, the urge to immediately obtain something they seek is intense, and the impulse to transmit information of their own to others is likewise strong Apparently, people with such values and attitudes are today’s leading Internet users People of this type find the Internet an extremely convenient and powerful tool

Characteristics of new media users

Internet users display a strong urge to be informed, and the ability to obtain that information actively They vigorously and routinely make use of various media to fulfill their needs and desires, and are skilled at handling media devices and processing information

The same may be said about the “mobile phone only” category as com-

pared with the “use neither” category For example, respondents with a strong

need for information among “mobile phone only” users tend to be those who are the “type to search until satisfied” and are the “type to want to obtain something desired right away.” They also tend to be people who have CD players, MD players, large-size television screens, video and VTR decks, and other comparatively new types of media devices

By contrast, respondents in the “use neither” category tend to show more frequent use of newspapers and conventional telephones Comparing assessment of the various media, moreover, “use neither” respondents have a higher inclination toward older media such as the home telephone and television

In other words, comparing “mobile phone only” and “use neither” respondents, the desire for information and the inclination to make use of comparatively new media is stronger in the former Those in the “use both” category show this tendency the most

Future Spread of Internet Use

Use of mobile phones has already become widespread, mainly among the younger age brackets, and those who responded “Want to acquire mobile phone in future” in the 16-49 age range was low, at only 11 percent The mar-

ket for mobile phones in this age bracket may have almost leveled off

Households and housewives

The Internet, meanwhile, is still only used by about half of younger people The proportion of those who say “I want to learn to use the Internet” has risen to 30

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percent and is particularly prevalent (38 percent) for women in their thirties By

occupation as well, the proportion is high for housewives, indicating that, in the future, Internet use is likely to expand among this demographic group

Thirty-six percent of people who do not already use the Internet have a PC

at home, and these may be considered potential future users of the Internet Spread of Internet use in workplaces is determined by its usefulness to particular businesses and skills, which means household use suggests more about

the future spread of Internet usage

From mobile phone use to Internet use

Among respondents using a “mobile phone only,” 61 percent stated that they

“want to learn to use the Internet in the future.” Apparently, rather than begin using the Internet directly, people tend to start with a mobile phone and move

on to Internet use

At the same time, 35 percent of “mobile phone only” respondents said they did “not want to use the Internet”; in other words, they are content with just a mobile phone Their reasons for this are that they “don’t feel inconvenienced without it,” using it “seems difficult,” and “costs money.” About half (46 percent) of these “mobile phone only” respondents do not use e-mail or other i-

mode (Internet-linked) mobile phone services In short, not all mobile phone users move on to use the Internet

Unlike use of a mobile phone, which comes relatively easily to anyone who has used a regular telephone, use of the Internet is an entirely new experience— the user must cope with a number of considerable hurdles in the process of purchasing Internet access and learning the various procedures entailed in its use Therefore, Internet use is not something likely to spread as easily as mobile phone use

Nevertheless, use of the Internet is being incorporated into the content of formal education Many universities now provide all students with an e-mail address and are rapidly improving facilities for routine access to the Internet and use of other electronic tools for teaching and research As the number of people accustomed to using the Internet from childhood rises, the rate of Internet use will naturally rise as well

IMPACT OF THE INTERNET ON DAILY LIFE

Mobile phones and the Internet are said to be having a great impact on daily

life and society, but as far as the results of this survey reveal, little actual change seems to have taken place in the pattern of people’s daily lives and no major social changes can be perceived.

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Why is there this gap between perceptions and reality? Is it the result of a difference in reading and interpreting the survey results? Since these technologies are still spreading, is it too early yet to gauge accurately the extent

of their impact? Or, since influence is a matter of quality, it may be difficult

to grasp quantitatively The first part of this essay examined the results and analysis of the data for respondents between 16 and 49 years of age;

here, however, we will review all the data, not just the set limited to this age bracket

How Has Life Changed?

This survey was designed to collect information about the influence and impact of mobile phones and the Internet on daily life and society While we use the word “influence” every day, the scope of the word is quite vague, involving perceived matters of cause and effect; responses are difficult to analyze from this viewpoint So, we gauge “influence” in terms of the scale or extent of change in daily life

The changes resulting from use of these media can be divided into (1) the extent of the use itself; (2) the increase/decrease of activities directly resulting from use; and (3) indirect changes in activities and attitudes resulting from

use

New patterns of use

At the time the survey was conducted (March 2001), mobile phone use stood

at 54 percent and 31 percent of respondents had some experience using the

Internet This degree of usage is actually quite substantial in terms of society

as a whole For these people, the use of such sophisticated media is a rather

new experience, and, therefore, is itself an essential change

People first began to notice the presence of mobile phones when they

Figure 14, Changes in Telephone Habits (multiple responses)

Can no longer remember my own or others’ phone numbers 46% Now can make calls from anywhere 41 Make short and frequent calls 21 Can make calls even late at night 19 Take out my mobile phone whenever I have extra time 16 Talk on the phone in front of others 15 Stopped using the company phone for personal calls 9 Nothing has changed 28

No answer 1

N = Mobile phone owners (total: 1,521)

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 65 Figure 15 Use of the Internet (multiple responses)

Suddenly realize I’ve been on the Internet for a long period 41% Have made reservations and ordered goods via websites 24 Have answered online questionnaires 21 Have exchanged messages with acquaintances made via the Net 15 Have encountered many viewpoints not heard in the mass media 15 Have sold or purchased goods at an online auction 8 Have written endless replies to e-mail 4 Have been told that an e-mail message I wrote was rude 0 None of the above 30

No answer 4

N = People who use the Internet from home (total: 589)

observed what was then the unusual sight of people talking on their phones while walking along the street, and this gave the impression that lifestyles had changed While 41 percent of mobile phone users (22 percent of all respon-

dents) did describe the change in terms of “now I can make calls from any-

where,” and there are indications of overall increased telephone use (“make short and frequent calls,” 21 percent; “can make calls even late at night,” 19 percent), the fact that 28 percent said “Nothing in particular has changed,” confirms that no dramatic change has taken place (Figure 14)

Use of the Internet is a new activity Many people (41 percent) have expe-

rienced a sudden realization that they have spent a lot of time on the Internet

However, only 24 percent of Internet users (5 percent of all respondents) used

the Internet to make reservations and order goods via websites—a distinctive function of the Internet—which suggests there has been no major change

(Figure 15)

Low average hours of use

Video cassette recorders have spread to over 80 percent of households, yet are infrequently used and thus have minimal influence on daily life The influence

of some media, however, may be great as a result of frequent use even by a small number of users

Looking briefly at frequency of use and average length of use, we can see that, while mobile phones are used daily, the majority use their mobile phones less than 10 minutes per day In contrast, 27 percent of respondents say they check Internet sites daily on their home computer, and the number who check the Internet 1 to 3 times a week is also fairly large (36 percent) Twenty-seven percent are online for over an hour at a time and 32 percent for about 30 min-

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Figure 16 Frequency and Length of Use

Less than five minutes 60* 12 19

About ten minutes 16* 24 29

About thirty minutes 11 32 26

About one hour 8 17 8

About two hours 3 5

Three or more hours 2 5 0

Don’t use it 0 5 16

No answer 1 1 2

N = users (totals: 1,521 589 589 persons)

* Choices for mobile phones were, in order, “10 minutes or less,” and “about 20 minutes”

Figure 17 Average Length of Use (Estimate)

* Length of use estimated from figure 16

** Average length of use = (percentage of users) x (daily length of use per user) x (percentage who

use everyday)

utes, showing that a large number of respondents use the Internet for long stretches Length of e-mail use is fairly short (Figure 16)

Comparing quantity of use, we can try to calculate roughly the average

length of use for the entire population of Japan This is approximately 10 minutes per day for mobile phone use and 5 minutes per day for Internet use (3

minutes for websites and 2 minutes for e-mail) These are rough estimates,

however, and not figures corroborated in an actual time use survey Compared

to the 3 hours 25 minutes spent watching TV and 23 minutes reading the newspaper, which a survey of time spent on weekday activities in daily life

(2000) reported, this is considerably short, and more or less the same as

watching videotapes (6 minutes) or listening to CDs and cassette tapes (10

minutes) (Figure 17)

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Increased Decreased NoChange No Answer ' Balance of

Many activities show “no change”

The use of new media should mean that activities in other areas are directly replaced or decrease/increase in frequency Figures 18 and 19 show the results

of the survey in this regard Among mobile phone users, “public phone use”

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has decreased dramatically As many as 91 percent said their use of public phones decreased “Use of home telephone” (49 percent) and “letter writing”

(37 percent) has also decreased, indicating that the mobile phone basically fulfills the role of these media What has increased, on the other hand, is “tele-

phoning,” in general (45 percent), which is likely due to the ease and convenience of using a mobile phone Otherwise, while “going out” has slightly increased, there seems to be little change in activities unrelated to telephones,

such as watching television

Activities that increased as a result of Internet use are few Activities that decreased include “letter writing” (36 percent among Internet users) and “tele- phoning” (29 percent), demonstrating that the Internet is used as a substitute media tool for these activities The fact that 29 percent said “hours of sleep” had decreased, suggests the ill keffects of Internet use The decrease in time

Figure 20 Changes due to Mobile Phones (multiple responses)

Feel lonely when I receive no phone calls or e-mail 15

Makes me feel constantly under constraint 14 Have made new friends 11

Have stopped making firm commitments ahead of time

Can no longer make arrangements with friends without my mobile phone 7

No longer know anything about my own child’s circle of friends 3 None of the above 13

No answer 2

N = Mobile phone owners (total: 1,521)

Figure 21 Changes due to the Internet (multiple responses)

Now, before doing something I gather information [via the Internet] 45% Scope of my hobbies and interests has broadened 29 Contact and talk with my friends more often 28 Have made new friends 14 Contact and talk with my family more often 12 Can take care of errands without going out 8 Have begun to speak my mind and state my opinions 5 Purchase things more often

None of the above 21

No answer 3

N = Respondents who use the Internet from home (total: 589)

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watching TV (21 percent) also suggests that the Internet was substituted for

television in terms of information and entertainment functions Nevertheless,

the majority of Internet users report “no change” in every category So, as far

as the entire population is concerned, those who feel that things have changed probably only account for a few percent

Greater closeness in personal relations

Next we must ask, what have been the indirect effects of mobile phone and Internet use on people’s daily activities and attitudes? Mobile phone users make more phone calls than before Moreover, their frequency of communication with others also increased: 40 percent of mobile phone users “contact and talk with friends more often” and 34 percent “contact and talk with family more often.” Many (42 percent) “feel safe” as long as they have a mobile phone On the other hand, the convenience of mobile phones may have

a negative effect: some (19 percent) “become irritated” when they cannot make contact immediately

The Internet, too, is a media of communication, and its users, like mobile

phone users, have developed closer personal relations with others Twenty-eight percent of Internet users surveyed “contact and talk with friends more often,” 12 percent “contact and talk with family more often,” and 14 percent “have made

new friends [as a result of Internet use].” As a tool of information gathering, the Internet makes its users more outward-oriented, for they say, “now, before

doing something, I gather information via the Internet” (45 percent) and the

“scope of my interests has broadened” (29 percent) (see Figures 20 and 21) The survey also found that people’s evaluation of and attitudes toward various media have changed due to their use of mobile phones and the Internet

Figure 22 Things I Can’t Live Without (Top 3 Items, by age and gender)

(%)

Age Men Women

16-19 TV 27 Mobile 27 Talk 23 Mobile 38 Talk 26 TV 14 20-29 Talk 33 TV 20 Mobile 20 Talk 54 Mobile 18 TV II 30-39 Talk 40 TV25 News 7 Talk 61 TV 18 Mobile 5 40-49 Talk 34 TV28 News 13 Talk 56 TVI9_ News 6 50-59 Talk 35 TV 28 News l6 Talk 38 TV 29 161.15 60-69 TV 34 Talk 28 News 16 Talk 38 TV 27 Tel 13

70 and over TV 33 Talk29 News l5 Talk 37 TV 35 Tel 10

Talk: Talk with family and friends

TV: Television

News: Newspapers

Mobile: Mobile phone

Tel: Regular (home) telephone

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When asked to choose just one of the sixteen items they feel they “can’t live without,” 39 percent said “talk with family and friends,” 25 percent “television,” and 8 percent “newspapers,” with “mobile phone” coming next at 8 percent For respondents under 29, the mobile phone is of equivalent or greater importance than television, revealing its priority for younger people (Figure 22)

Only 1 percent of respondents chose “Internet” as the item they “can’t live without,” and although they appreciate the value of the Internet more than non-users, as noted in part 1 of this essay, its basic standing among media is not particularly different from others

Looking at this phenomenon from the slightly different perspective of cost,

we note that 46 percent of mobile phone users and 37 percent of Internet users run up a bill of more than 5,000 yen per month Nevertheless, the clear majority (80 percent) of users do not have to economize elsewhere to cover these costs, suggesting that such expenses do not impose a burden on household finances, partly because many of them belong to higher income brackets Impact and change is partial

New activities that emerged (or activities that changed) as a result of using the

Internet and mobile phones, as shown above, are not widespread among the

majority of users This is particularly true with the Internet Internet users

make up only 31 percent of the whole, so one cannot say that changes

observed among a fraction of these users represent sweeping changes in society

No matter how small, however, even 5 percent of the total population of the

country, for example, means more than 5 million people, which is quite size- able as a potential market The decline in purchases of subscriber telephones

and the decreased number of hours of sleep at night, therefore, can be inter-

preted as notable signs of change The results of a survey can be expressed in percentage points, but no objective standard exists from which to judge what percentage is high and what is low That depends on the content and purpose

of what is being analyzed, and while there may be differences in interpretation depending on the reading of the data, we can only conclude that it is a result

of differences in perspective Regarding the impact of mobile phones and the Internet on television, which is used by almost everyone, we may conclude that, at this time, only negligible changes have occurred

Impact to Surface Over Time

Now let us consider the possibility that, because mobile phones and the Internet have spread very rapidly, their impact on daily life and society is still

very small

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 71 Eigure 23 Changes in Lifestyle and Activities (%)

Length of website usage Less than 5 minutes, About 30 minutes An hour or more about 10 minutes

Dissemination rate roughly half

As noted previously, some users observe changes in their daily lives For example, so-called “heavy users” who spend an hour or more a day on the Internet state that their hours for sleep and for watching TV have decreased

(Figure 23), but these people are small in number and do not represent a large enough sample to demonstrate changes in society at large

If the number of users increases, however, the absolute number of such

people will increase and the impact may become more manifest As noted in

part 1, however, the spread of mobile phone use seems to have almost leveled

off, and increase in Internet use is likely to concentrate mainly among the young; since 38 percent of those in older age brackets say they “do not want

to use” the Internet, it is likely that the dissemination rate will remain at

around 50 percent for the time being In other words, the size of the heavy-

user population, the current minority, may double the present figure, but it is

not likely that the number of users (and therefore scope of impact) will greatly

increase

Use of both mobile phones and/or the Internet is most common among

young people; these people are sure to continue using these media as they grow older, and those who follow them will be familiar with the use of such

media from the time they are children Whatever the situation in the short

term, if we consider things in the long term—say 30 years hence—it is likely that with the change in generations, almost all people in society will be using these media, and in that sense lifestyles and society itself are certain to change considerably.

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What change will change even more

The next question is whether the changes brought about by the media will

become more pronounced with the passage of time Since the time usage began

is one of the questions in this survey, we can compare those who have recently started using mobile phones or the Internet to those who have been doing so for some time If longer-term users feel more has changed than new users, we

can assume that change will become more pronounced as time goes by

Figure 24 compares changes in activities for a group of respondents who had been using mobile phones for more than two years (“old”) and who had been using them for less than two years (“new”) In the use of public telephones and other activities that many users felt to have decreased or increased (“no change” was low), more respondents of the “old” group than the “new”

felt such changes No significant difference appears between “old” and “new”

regarding meeting people, going out, watching television, and other items For items for which there is little change, it appears that there will continue to be little change even after the passage of time

While less pronounced than for mobile phones, the same tendencies were observed for Internet use (Figure 25) Respondents who had been using the Internet for less than one year were grouped under “new” and those who had been using it for more than one year under “old.” Many in both groups felt that “letter writing” and “sleep” had decreased, and more respondents of the old group indicated they felt a decrease in these items Here too no difference

was observed between the two groups for the “meet people” and “go out” items that originally showed little change

Figure 24 Changes due to Mobile Phones (by length of time since beginning use)

Telephone calls 50 > 39 5 5 44 < 54 1 1

Letter writing 1 1 41 > 31 58 < 67 1 2 Internet 13 > 6 6 > 4 72 < 79 9 II Meeting people 14 12 6 + 80 83 1 1 Going out 12 14 2 3 85 82 1 2

TV watching 2 2 7 8 90 89 1 2

Old: Have been using for more than 2 years (total: 835)

New: Have been using for less than 2 years (total: 680)

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 73 Figure 25 Changes due to the Internet (by length of time since beginning use)

Old: Have been using for more than 1 year (total: 267 subjects)

New: Have been using for less than 1 year (total: 322 subjects)

These figures suggest that some of the changes resulting from the use of new media will become increasingly clear with the passage of time Therefore, after people have been using a new media for a fixed period of time

it is possible that the impact on them will become clear However, aside from the figures for public telephone use in the case of mobile phone users, “no change” activities even for the “old” group mainly show figures of more than

60 percent, suggesting that with the exception of public phone use, no widespread change will take place for the time being

Qualitative Impact on Daily Life

Even if a certain media is not used by many and the frequency and duration of use are not great, it is still possible that the media in question can have a considerable qualitative impact upon individuals’ daily lives and society Although it may seem incongruous in a study based on quantitative assessment and evaluation, this approach stresses the significance of the role per- formed by these forms of media in society

Qualitative significance of mobile phones

Because more than half of respondents use mobile phones and spend substantial sums on their use, there is no question that mobile phones are now an important and necessary media Their impact on daily lives is by no means limited to decreasing use of public telephones The original reason for the use-

fulness of the mobile phone—its mobility—is remarkable, but an even stronger element of its appeal is the ease of its operation and its quality as a

“personal” device that connects one individual directly to another.

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More lively communication among people and closer personal relation- ships as the result of using mobile phones would be presumed to change the daily lives of users in various ways and have some influence on society A glimpse of these changes can be detected in the findings of this survey, such

as the feeling of safety in having a mobile phone and the tendency among some to leave details of meetings unspecified until the last minute Certain changes are presumably abstract, and it is difficult to ask people questions about things they do not consciously think about In conducting such a survey,

we probably cannot go beyond gathering data that indirectly support qualitative and abstract changes

Qualitative significance of Internet use

The Internet, an information tool like the mobile phone, can easily be used to

distribute a great deal of information There is no doubt that it will be behind the formation of a new society—a new world—of more convenient living The advent of the Internet as a media is also epoch-making in that it gives the individual the means to transmit personal views and information to society Until only recently, distributing fliers or publishing a book at your own expense were more or less the only means of getting across to many people views that could not be disseminated in the mass media Now, using the

Internet, anyone can send a message to the whole world

The Internet can be used in many other ways The feature distinguishing it most from other forms of media is the enormous diversity of information that can be obtained as well as the variety of ways that information is used This inevitably means that the purpose, methods, and frequency of Internet use will

be varied, and its impact on people’s lives will emerge only gradually in a wide range of fields In that sense, the qualitative significance of the Internet

is not a suitable subject for a public opinion (sampling) survey that seeks to grasp phenomena prevailing on a large scale or among a large segment of the population

Take, for example, transmission of a message to society People who main- tain a personal website make up only 10 percent of those who use the Internet

at home and 2 percent of all respondents to this survey Not all these website owners present their opinions on their own website Even if each one were to transmit various messages and seek to influence others via his or her website, the number of people who viewed their messages would be only a few thou-

sand, or a few hundred thousand at most, which would be negligible as far as

nationwide public opinion is concerned However, their messages might have

a great impact on society if they were seen by opinion leaders or the mass media.

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? 75 Figure 26 Will the Internet Change Your Future Lifestyle?

No Answer 5 2 0 4

Compared with the mobile phone, there is a good possibility that the Internet might have a qualitatively significant impact, even if the number of

Internet users is small Such an effect is still theoretical, but as long as the

effect is possible we should make an effort to confirm it

Portents of Change in Daily Life

Many people are tapping the new media, using mobile phones and the Internet They tend to feel that not much has changed in their daily lives by adopting these media Even those who feel their lives have changed make up

much less than a half of all users, in most cases

When asked how much they expect the Internet to change their lifestyles in the future, user and non-user respondents were divided more or less equally:

38 percent think it “will change things [to a considerable or some extent],” 31

percent think it “won’t change things [much or at all],” and 27 percent “can’t

say either way” (Figure 26) Among Internet users alone, however, 59 percent

think it “will change things,” whereas among people who do not want to use

the Internet only 15 percent think so This may indicate that by actually using the Internet and seeing its merits, users tend to feel the portents of change Still, even among Internet users, 28 percent do not think it will change lifestyles, suggesting that using the Internet does not lead directly to feeling its future impact

It is very difficult from the outset, in principle perhaps impossible, to grasp the impact of mobile phones and the Internet on the basis of only one survey Such changes can only be perceived by comparing the situation at two different points in time A single survey can do no more than ask its respondents to look back on the past and describe their “feelings” about change The changes dealt with in this study are thus “virtual” changes, and more surveys must be conducted at regular intervals before we will be able to observe real changes and calculate the actual impact of the use of these new media.

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“Media and Lifestyle” Survey (Straight Count)

1 Objectives of the Survey

To grasp how mobile phones and the Internet, which have spread rapidly in recent years, are being used in daily life, and to use this as data when investi- gating television viewing in the future

Stratified two-stage random sampling

3,600 subjects (12 subjects x 300 locations)

6 Number of valid surveys (percentage)

2,818 subjects (78.3%)

* The symbol “—” in the figures indicates no subject gave that answer

—Amount of time spent watching TV—

Question 1 Approximately how many hours of TV do you watch in an average day

(excluding days off)? Please circle one of the following

—Main TV stations watched—

Question 2 Which do you view more often: programs on NHK or programs on com-

mercial stations? Please circle one of the following

1 I watch NHK much more often 6.7%

2 Between the two, I watch NHK more often 9.3

3 [watch NHK and commercial stations equally as often 23.2

4 Between the two, I watch commercial stations more often 30.3

5 I watch commercial stations much more often 28.1

6 Ialmost never watch TV 1.5

7 No answer 0.8

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WILL THE INTERNET TAKE THE PLACE OF TELEVISION? ti

—Topics watched on TV—

Question 3 Normally, what kind of TV programs do you watch often? Please circle

whichever apply from the following

g Rakugo/manzai comedy and other vaudeville or theatrical performances 12.5

h Comedy, short skit and other “variety shows” 30.4

i Singing and music programs 40.6

j Anime/manga 10.0

k Sports programs 37.4

| Training programs in school subjects, foreign language, technical 90 skills, hobbies, etc.,

m General education programs in nature, history, travelogues, science, etc 29.6

n Lifestyle and practical information programs 15.8

0 Morning and midday talk shows 26.0

p No answer 0.7

—Broadcast expectations—

Question 4 If TV programs were divided into the following three categories, which

would you want to see broadcast more often? Please circle one of the fol-

lowing

1 Programs you can sit back and enjoy 45.3%

2 Programs that relate events and happenings in the world 40.7

3 Programs that transmit knowledge and culture 12.7

4 No answer 1:2

—Activities while watching TV—

Question 5 Do you do other things while watching TV? Please circle whichever you do

often from the following

a Eat meals 75.3%

b Take care of household chores and personal care 32.9

c Chat with someone 21.4

d Talk on the phone 5,5

e Read a newspaper or magazine 26.1

f Listen to music on tape, CD, MD, or the radio 2.6

g Play video games 1.6

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— Attraction of digital satellite broadcasts—

Question 6 A new satellite broadcasting service, BS digital broadcasting, began in

December of last year The following is a list of the new features this broadcasting service has added Please circle whichever you find most attractive

Extremely sharp image quality (Digital High Definition)

Programs affiliated with the commercial broadcasters

14.5 10.1 4.6 30.5 11.0

— Attraction of non-program features on BS digital broadcasts—

Question 7 The following is a list of the other services BS Digital offers aside from the

programs it broadcasts Please circle whichever you would want to use

On-screen TV program guide

One-touch (by selecting only the program name with a remote

control) timed recording

Twenty-four hour, up-to-the-minute news

Twenty-four hour, up-to-the-minute weather for your area

Participatory programs, such as using your remote control to answer

questions on a quiz show

Supplementary program-related information, such as sports player

statistics and cooking recipes, that can be viewed mid-program

Televised shopping by remote control

Other

There’s no service I particularly want to use

No answer

18.9% 26.9

375 31.0

16.0

20.7 9.0 2.4 23.0 10.2

—Jnterest in BS digital broadcasts—

Question 8 How much interest do you have in BS Digital broadcasts? Please circle one

T am interested to some extent

I am not too interested

I am absolutely not interested

No answer

5.1% 35.9 41.3 13.1 4.5

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—Frequency of use—

Question 9 To what extent do you use (watch or listen to) the following items? For A

through K, including instances of use outside your own home, please circle the single answer that most applies

[see table following Question 10]

—Feelings about use—

uestion 10 Also, is it easy to use the following items, or is it difficult? For A throu h K, ý 8 ẽ

please circle the single answer that most applies (Even if you have never actually used the item)

1 Almost never/Never use 6 No answer

2 A few times per year 7 Easy to use

3 About 1 or 2 times per month 8 A hassle to use

4 About | to 3 times per week 9 Can’t say either way

5 Nearly everyday 10 No answer (%)

Q9 Frequency of use Q10 Feelings about use

—Ability to use media devices—

Question 11 Do you do any of the following on a regular basis? Please circle whichever

apply

a Watch TV with a remote control 85.7%

b Withdraw money from an ATM at a bank or post office 58.4

c Writing with a PC or word processor 29.8

d Make timed recordings with a VCR 37.0

e Input letters on a mobile phone § 29.0

f Download from the Internet 16.3

g None of these 4.3

h No answer 2.3

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