Mpt trong nhtfng dinh nghia ban dau cua DLST ma cho tdi nay vdn dtfdc chd'p nhdn: "DLST la du lich co trach nhidm dd'i vdi cdc vung ttf nhidn bao vd radi trtfdng va duy iri cudc [r]
Trang 1SI/ DUNG PHlTdNG PHAP DELPHI
TRONG XAC DINH CAC YEU TO DIEU KIEN V6l CAC CHi SO DANH GIA PHAT TRIEN
DU LICH SINH THAI CUA TAY BAC
• NGUYEN TH! QUYNH HUdNG
TOM TAT:
Tdy Bac khdng nhffng la ndi hpi lu day du nhffng dilu kidn can va du dd phdt tridn m^mh
me loai hinh du lich sinh thai ma cdn trd thanh tuye'n du lich quan trpng trong chid'n Itfdc phat trien du lich cua Viet Nam Chinh vi vdy, bai vie't ltfa chpn phffdng phdp Delphi nham xac dinh cac ydu to' dilu kidn vdi cac chi sd danh gid phdt tridn loai binh du lich sinh thai cua Tdy Bac;
d l xud't xdy dtfng mpt khung nghien ctfu de md ra cho nhffng nghien cffu tiep theo Id rat can thie't va cd y nghia ea v l ly ludn va thffc liln
Tiif khoa: Tdy Bac, du lich sinh thdi, phtfdng phdp Delphi
1 D§t vSn dd
Tay Bac la mpt vung rdng ldn, chie'm 33% didn
tich, 12% ddn sd' ca ntfdc vdi tren 2.574kra dffdng
bidn gidi tid'p giap vdi Lao vd Trung Qud'c Tay
Bac bao gdm 12 tinh (Ha Giang, Ldo Cat, Yen Bai,
Lai Chdu, Didn Bien, Sdn La, Hda Binh, Cao
Bang, Bac Kan, Lang Sdn, Phu Tho, Tuyen
Quang) va 21 huyen phia Tdy cua hai tinh Thanh
Hda vd Nghe An; Id ndi sinh so'ng cua hdn 30 dan
toe, trdn 10 trieu ngtfdi vdi mdt khdng gian van
hda ra't rong ldn va he ddng thtfc vdtphongphu,da
dang Ddy la dia bdn chid'n Itfdc ddc bidt quan
trpng vl kinh td', qud'c phdng, an ninh va ddi ngoai
ciia ca ntfdc, cd vai trd quye't dinh sinh thai eua ca
vung Bac Bd
Trtfdc tinh binh thtfc td' trdn, da cd khd nhilu
cac nghidn cffu vl phdt tridn du lich cua Tdy Bae
ndi chung va phat tridn du lieh sinh thai (DLST)
cua Tdy Bac ndi ridng Tuy nhidn, qua long quan
tdi Heu cho thd'y, phan Idn cdc nghien cffu tdp tmng vdo eac ngudn ltfe va cdc giai phap de phdt trien
du lich Tdy Bac trong thdi gian tdi Vide xac dinh cdc ye'u to' dieu kien cung nhtf xac dinh dtfdc cdc chi so'ddnh gid dd phat trien DLST - the' raanh cua Tdy Bac chtfa dtfdc cdc nghien ctfu dl cdp mpt each rd rang, cu the Day ehinh la xud't phdt diem cho vide Itfa chpn phtfdng phdp Delphi trong nghidn cffu nay nham xdc dinh cdc dilu kien vdi cac chi so' danh gia de phdt trien loai hinh DLST ciia Tdy Bae vdi cac chi so'ddnh gid; de xud't mot khung nghien cffu mdi cho nhtfng nghien cffu tiep theo
2 Cd sd ly !uan cua vdfn de nghidn ctfu
2.1 Phuang phdp Delphi
PhtfPng phdp Delphi Id phtfdng phdp "dtfa tren khao sdt cd'u true, sff dung thdng tin cua nhffng chuyen gia va dang dffdc sff dung rdng rdi nhtf la phtfdng phap hieu qua de cd dtfdc y kie'n ddng
Trang 2thuan tff eac chuyen gia ve giai quyd't rapt vd'n dl
ndo dd hoac xdy dtfng md hinh (Lipsehitz va
McDonald, 1991; Hsu va Sandford, 2007) Do vay,
nd mang ket qua dinh tinb va dinh Itfdng va v l ban
chd't raang tinh kham phd, dtf dodn, thdm chi la cdc
ydu id chud'n tac (Milier, 2006) Cac nghien cffu
ve phtfdng phdp Delphi da chi rd rdng vd'n d l
khdng phai ve mat pbtfPng phdp ludn md la vdn
dung thtfc lien cua phtfdng phap Delphi Tuy
nhien, stf nhd't tri eao thd hidn d ehd Delphi la
phtfdng phdp dieu tra chuydn gia trong do cae
chuyen gia khong he bie't de'n nhau va viec khao
sat cd the dtfdc thtfc Men bang rapt so vdng, trong
do vdng sau dtfpe cung ed'p kd't qua thara khdo tff
eac vdng trtfdc Vi vay, Delphi dtfdc xera la qud
trinb giao tid'p nhdm chat che (Skulmoski va cdng
Stf, 2007)
Stf "vd danh hda" cdc thanh vien tham gia cho
phep nhtfng ngtfdi thara gia thd hidn y kid'n eua hp
mdt each thoai mdi ma khdng chiu ba't ky mdt dp
Itfc ndo Ddy chinh la stf khac biet cd ban gitfa
phtfdng phdp chuydn gia vd phtfdng phdp Delphi
Thtfc le cung cho tha'y, vide van dung phtfOng
phdp Delphi khdng ed stf khde biet ldn ve so' vdng
khao sal lap lai cua cac chuydn gia, chu yd'u la
1-3 vdng Tuy nhien, so' Itfdng thanh vien thara gia
Delphi ed thd co stf khac bidt ttf vdi chuyen gia
de'n hang tram chuydn gia (Skulmoski vd cdng stf,
2007) Vi du nhtf nghien ctfu cua Kuo va Yu (1999)
la mpt vdng vdi 62 chuydn gia, Lara vd cdng stf
(2000) la 3 vdng vdi 3 chuyen gia, Nhtf vdy,
Delphi khdng phai la phtfdng phdp ctfng nhac rad
cd the dieu chinh phu hdp vdi ttfng dilu kien va
va'n dl nghien ctfu cu the
Ve cdc chuydn gia thara gia nghien ctfu Delphi,
can phai ltfa chon cdc dd'i ttfdng phu hdp vi nd anh
htfdng trtfc tie'p dd'n cha't Itfdng ctia kd't qud khdo
sdt Dd'i ttfdng dtfdc coi la du lieu chua'n d l tham
gia Delphi khi hp ed chuydn mon vd kinh nghiem
lien quan de'n vd'n d l nghidn cffu, cd khd nang
ddng gdp cac kel qua hffu ich (Hsu vd Sandford,
2007) Mpt sd' khac nhd'n manh rang, ede chuyen
gia tham gia Delphi ndn la nhtfng ngtfdi cd trinh
dd chuydn mdn vd td't hdn la hp dd hode dang gitf
cdc ctfdng VI Idnh dao trong linh vffc lidn quan
(Ludwig, 1997; Milier, 2006)
2.2 Du lich sinh thdi
Khai mem vl DLST (Ecotourism) vdi at cdch la
mpt loai hinh, mdi sdn phdm du lich cu the da xudt hien kha lau trong cac nghien cffu ve du lich Mpt trong nhtfng dinh nghia ban dau cua DLST ma cho tdi nay vdn dtfdc chd'p nhdn: "DLST la du lich co trach nhidm dd'i vdi cdc vung ttf nhidn bao vd radi trtfdng va duy iri cudc sd'ng yen binh cua ngffdi ddn dja phtfdng" - Hdi Du lich Sinh thai Qud'c le (TIES) dtfa ra nam 1991 Ngoai ra cdn cd cac dinh nghia khde do nbilu td ehtfe bdo tdn vd phdt tridn dtfa ra
de Iam rd thdm khdi mem cu a TIES v l du lich sinh thdi, tuy nhien phan ldn cac dinh nghia deu lap trung vdo: sff dung ede ngudn lai nguyen mdt each ben vtfng; duy tn cudc sd'ng ydn vui cua cdng ddng dia phffdng; va'n de giao due va bpc bdi; huy dpng stf tham gia cua cac bdn lien quan, dac bidt Id ngtfdi dan dia phffdng sinh sd'ng d cdc didm DLST Nhff vdy, DLST la loai hinh du lich dffa vdo thidn nhien vd vdn hda ban dia gan vdi giao due mdi trffdng, ed ddng gdp cho nd Iffc bao tdn va phat trien bdn vffng vdi stf tham gia tieh ctfc eua cdng ddng dan ctf dia phtfdng Ngoai y nghia gdp phdn bao tdn ttf nhien, bao ve da dang sinh hoe vd van hda cdng ddng; stf phdi trien DLST da va dang mang lai nhtfng nguon Idi kinh le lo ldn, tao cd hpi tdng thdm vide Idm vd ndng eao thu nhdp cho qud'c gia cung nhtf cdng ddng ngtfdi dan cac dia phtfPng, nhd't la ngtfdi ddn d cdc vung sdu, vung xa - ndi ed eac khu bao ton ttf nhidn vd cdc canh quan hd'p ddn Them vao do, DLST cdn gdp phan vao viec nang cao ddn tri vd stfc khoe cong ddng thdng qua eac hoat ddng giao due mdi trtfdng, vdn hoa lieh sff va nghi ngdi giai tri Chinh vi vay 5 nhieu nffde trdn the' gidi va trong khu vffc, ben canh cac Idi ich ve kinh td', DLST con dtfdc xem nhtf mpt giai phap htfu bidu de bao ve mdi trtfdng smh thdi thdng qua qua trinh lam giara stfc ep khai thdc ngudn Idi ttf nhidn phuc vu nhu can cua khach du lich, cua ngtfdi ddn dia phtfdng idii tham gia vao cac hoat ddng du lich
3 Phu'dng phap nghidn cii'u Tff long quan idi lidu cho thd'y, viec xac dinh ede ye'u to'cu the Id dilu kidn dd phat tridn DLST eua Tdy Bae cdn chffa thtfc stf ro rdng trong cac nghien cffu trtfdc day; do vdy, dd cd thd xac dinh
vd lira kid'ra dtfdc stf ddng thudn mdt cdch khach quan hdn, phtfdng phap Delphi dtfdc ltfa chpn sff dung trong nghien cffu nay
Thdng qua thao ludn nhdm tap trung (gdm rapt
sd chuyen gia vl du Iieh va radt so' hffdng ddn vien
Trang 3thude cdc linh cua vung Tay Bae); tdc gia Iffa
chpn vd hinh thanh cdc ye'u Id' va nhffng ehi so'
danh gia ede dieu kidn de phdt tridn DLST cua
Tdy Bae Trencd sd do, tac gia thid't ke'bang bdi
cd'u true va gffi de'n 20 chuyen gia bang dieu tra
thdng lin trtfc tuye'n (Google Docs) Day la cae
chuyen gia da tham dtf Hpi thao "Nghidn cffu xdy
dffng san phdm du lieh ddc thu vung miln nui phia
Bae (Ddng Bac vd Tdy Bac) - 2015", trong do cd
2 lanh dao quan ly cua Tong cue Du lich; 3
chuyen gia phu trach dff an cua EU - ESRT; 5 nhd
quan ly dia phffdng thuoc viing Tdy Bac va 10 nhd
quan Iy doanh nghidp du lieh
Cac sd'lieu thu thap dtfdc Iff phie'u tra Idi ciia
eac chuyen gia dffdc ldng hdp va phdn tich bang
thd'ng kd rad td de ddnh gid mffe dp ddng y cua
cac chuyen gia (theo thang Likert 5 vdi 1: Ra't
khdng quan trpng; 5: Rd't quan trpng; Cdc ehi so'
cd gid tri trung binh dtfdi 3,5 se bi loai khdi
khung nghien cffu) vdi ttfng ye'u id' cu the va cbi
so' do Itfdng da d l xud't, phdn tieh phtfdng sai
(ANOVA) de so sanh y kid'n giffa cdc chuyen gia
theo rapt so' tieu thtfc phdn loai Dong thdi, be
sd' bid'n thidn C V (Coefficient of Variation) dtfdc
sff dung de do Iffdng ratfc ba't ddng y kie'n chuyen
gia, ttf dd cd the co gidi phdp xff Iy bd't ddng y
kie'n chuydn gia (nd'u cd) Qui trinh cu thd nhtf
sau (Hinh 3.1):
Hinh 3.1: Qui tnnh fhi/c hien phu'dng phap Delphi
trong xac djnh cac yeu to dieu Iden vdi cac chi so
danh gia phat tnen du Ijch sinh thai cua Tay Bdc
Nghien citu d|nh tinh
•
De xuat cac yeu to dieu ki$n vdi cac chi so
danh gia phat trien DLST cua Tay Bac
I
Nghien cQu d|nh lUdng (phUdng phap Delphi)
Tan suat, gia trj trung binh, CV, ANOVA
Cac yeu to dieu ki$n vdi cac chi so danh gia
phat trien DLST cua "lay Bac
4 Kd't qua nghi§n ctfu va thao lu$n
4.1 Khdi quat tiim ndng du lich Tdy Bac
Tdy Bae sd hffu ngudn tiem nang du lich rat ldn vdi thien nhien ky vi, vdn hda dac sac va lich sii hao bung Dtfdc thidn nhien ban tdng mdt ve dep hung vT, ridng cd ve dia hinh, khi hdu, dia chat, canh quan va he sinh thai, Tay Bac eo sffc hd'p din
du lich dac biet Tdy Bae ed dinh Fansipan dtfdc mdnh danh la ndc nha Ddng Dtfdng; Sa Pa - Thi trd'n trong mdy vdi khi hdu quanh nam mdt m^; Danh thdng qud'c gia Rudng bac thang Mti Cdng Chai vdi nhffng khu rudng bdc thang ndi tieng; Ho
Pa Khoang rdng ldn nam giffa mpt vung thidn nhien canh dep hung vT vdi thdm thtfc vdt phong phu, khi hdu on hda; rtfng Mtfdng Phang Id mpt trong nhtfng khu bao tdn ttf nhidn vdi nhilu loai ddng Ihtfc vat quy hid'm cua linh Dien Bidn; Thung lijng Mai Chdu binh yen vdi sac man ciia cdy co, ddng lua vd xen ldn nhffng mai nhd nho; Cao nguydn Mdc Chau rdng ldn vd ttfdi dep vdi nhffng loai hoa nd ra't nhieu d vung nui Tay Bdc nhtf hoa ban, hoa man, hoa ddo, Cung vdi canh quan thidn nhien ky vi, van hda truyen thd'ng cua cae ddn tdc cung la diem ndi bat trong tdi nguydn du lich ndi ddy Tdy Bdc la ndi sinh sd'ng cua nhieu dan tdc nhtf Tay, Niing, Thdi, Mtfdng, Mong, Dao, Kinh, Hoa, Khd Mu, Lao, Ltf, Ha Nhi, Khdng, La Hii, Si
La, Phu La, Bo'Y, Mang, Gidy, XdDang,LdL6,
Pa Then, Phii La, Cd Lao, La Chi vdi rapt khdng gian van hda rdng ldn vd phong phu Nhieu dan tdc cdn ltfu gitf nguyen ven ban sac vdn hda truyen thd'ng eua minh trong phong tuc, tap qudn,
Id hpi, trang phue, nhac cu, cdc didu ddn ca, ddn
vu nhtf Id hdi Long Tdng, chd linh Khau Vai, miia sap, mua xde, hat then, nhac cu Pi cap, pi sen, khen mdi hay trong tfng xff cdng ddng, kie'n triic nhd d, cdc phien chd ban Ara thffc Tay Bac mang nhffng net dac trtfng, khde Met han so vi3i cac vung khde vdi gd rap, ed sud'i ntfdng up, ndm
da trau, thit trdu gdc bd'p, thang eo', la tiem nang
du lich bd'p dan ebo nhffng du khach ihicb khdm pha va trai nghidra,
Ve cd sd Iffu tru, theo thd'ng ke gan day, toan vung cd 307 ed sd Iffu tru dtfdc xe'p hang vdi gan 9.000 budng Trong do, ed 3 ed sd 4 sao, 13 cd s6 3 sao, 94 cd sd 2 sao vd 197 ed sd 1 sao va chtfa cd cd
sd nao dat lieu chuan 5 sao Nhtf vdy, be tho'ng ccf
sd ltfu tru, nghi dtfdng, dn ud'ng, giai tri tai Tay Bac
Trang 4vdn cdn diieu; ciing vdi do, cd sd ha lang phue vu
du lich chtfa ddng bp; he thd'ng giao thdng vung Tdy
Bac chtfa dtfdc dau ttf, nhieu tuyd'n dtfdng xa chi di
lai dtfdc trong raiia khd, dac biet do dac tbu Id ede
linh mien nui nen nbilu tuyd'n dtfdng de'n cdc huyen
cd dp dd'c Idn, quanh co, che khud't tara nhin nen
tiem an nguy ed tai nan giao thdng rd't eao
4.2 Ket qud nghiin cdu
Thdng qua cudc thao ludn nhom tap trung (gdm
rapt so'chuyen gia ve duHch va radt sd'htfdng ddn
vien thudc cae tinh eua vung Tdy Bac); tac gid dl
xudt cdc yeu td dilu kidn dd phdt trien DLST cua
Tdy Bac vdi cae chi sd danh gid cu the nhtf sau
(Bdng 4.1):
Kd't qua nghien cffu cho thd'y, cac chuyen gia danh gia cao ddi vdi de xud't cdc ye'u td' dilu kien vdi cdc chi so' danh gid de phdt trien DLST eua Tay Bdc
Cac chuydn gia ddnh gia cao dd'i vdi 7 cdc ye'u
td dieu kidn de phdt trien DLST cua Tdy Bac Mat khde, phan tich phffdng sai mdt yd'u id cho tha'y hau nhff khdng cd stf khac biet mang y nghia thd'ng kd
ve y kid'n cua cdc chuyen gia dd'i vdi td't ca cdc chi sd'do Itfdng da d l xud't (P<0,01) theo cdc tidu thtfc
dd tudi, ITnh vtfc cdng tdc, thara nidn cdng tac hen quan dd'n du lich Ke't qua phdn tich cac he so' bie'n thien cung cho thd'y hau he't dIu eo gid tri thd'p hdn 24% Ngoai trtf cac chi sd' khdng dtfdc cdc chuyen Bang 4.1 Cac yeu td dieu kien vdi cac ch? sd danh gia phdt trien
du Ijch sinh thai cua Tdy Bac
Cac yeij to
1 Tai nguyen dulich
Tai nguyen du hch tu nhien
Tai nguyen du Ijch van hoa
2 Nhan life dulich
3 San pham du l|ch
4 Cd sd h^ tang, v^t chat va
Iq/ fhu^t du l|ch
5 Quan ly diem den du Ijch
6 Sil thu^n tl$n \Wp c$n
diem den du l|ch
7 Su tham gia cua c^ng
ddng dan cu d|a phtfdng
vac cac hoat d<ing du l|ch
Cac chi so danh gia
(1) Canh quan thien nhien hap dan; (2) Khi hau thdi tie't thuan Ipi;
(3) He ddng thdc vat phong phu
(1) Di san van hda da dang; (2) Am thilc da dang, phong phu;
(3) Su kien van hda va le'hpi truyen thong phong phu, (4) Lang nghe truydn tho'ng dac sac
(1) Trinh dp chuyen mdn phu hpp; (2) Ngoai ngl3 thanh thao; (3) Ky nang giao tiep tdt; (4) Ky nang xil ly cac tinh huong tot
1} San pham du Ijch da dang, dac sac;
2) San pham du lich phu hop vdi sd thich cua du khach 1) He thdng giao thdng thuan Ipi; 2) He thdng dien, cap thoat nUdc on djnh; 3) He thd'ng thdng tin lien Igc thugn tien; 4) He thdng cO sd lUu trd da dang, dat chuan; 5) He thd'ng eO sd an udng da dang, dat chuan; 6) He thd'ng cO sd vui ehdi giai tri da dang, h^p dab; 7) He thdng co sd mua sam da dang;
8) He thd'ng van chuyen du Ijch da dang, an toan; 9) He thdng cac cO sd khae (y te, ngan hang, cO s6 lam dep, tiem siia chQa, ) thuan tien
1) Cd quy hoach phat trie'n rd rang; 2} Bao ve va gin giO mdi trudng;
3) Bao dam an ninh, trat tu xa hpi; 4} Bao dam an loan ve thuc pham, tinh mang, tai san cho du khach; 5) Tiep nhan va giai quyet hop ly cac kien nghj ciia du khach 1) Tie'p can dudng bd thu§n tien;
2) Ket ndi v6i eac diem den du Ijch khac thuan Ipi;
1) Ngudi dan dja phuong than thien, hieu khach; 2) Ngudi dan dja phudng cd y thdc bao
ve va phat then du Ijch dia phuong
NguSn Nghien cdu vd tdng hop ciia tdc gid
Trang 5gia ddnh gia eao tbi eung ed gia tn CV cao hdn
nheu va day cung Id ly do ede chi so nay bi loai
Dieu nay phan anh stf dong nhd't cao trong y kid'n
cua cae chuydn gia dd'i vdi cdc yd'u id' dieu kidn
de phat trien DLST cua Tdy Bac va cac chi s6' do
Itfdng Vdi ke't qua ndy cho phep nghidn ctfu ehi
thtfc hien mdi vong khao sal thong qua bang hoi
ca'u true dd'i vdi cdc chuyen gia
Dd'i vdi cdc chi sd'do Itfdng cu the, ke'l qua khao sdt eung cho thd'y y kie'n chuyen gia cd stf ddng thudn eao vdi hau he't cdc chi so' de xual Trong tdng so 32 chi sd chi eo 02 chi sd cdc chuydn gia cho la khong thtfc stf quan trpng Ly do chu ye'u Iy giai cho dilu ndy Id do stf thay doi cua thi trtfdng
du lich hidn nay
Cu the (Bang 4.2):
Bdng 4.2 Y kien chuyen gia v l cdc ye'u t d dieu kien vdi cdc chi sd ddnh gid
phdt hien du Ijch sinh thai cua Tdy Bdc
Cac y^u tS
1.1ai nguyen du
lich
Tai nguyen du hch
tLf nhien
Tai nguyen du iich
van hoa
2 Nhan luc du i|ch
3 San pham du 1ich
4 Cd sd ha tang,
v^tchatvai<ythu|t
dulich
Cac chi scTdanh gia
1) Canh quan thien nhien hap dan,
2) Khi hau thdi tiet thuan Idi;
3) He dong thuc v§t phong phu
1) Dl san van hoa da dang;
2) Am thuc da dang, phong phu;
3) SU kien van hoa va ie'hoi truyen thong phong phu;
4} Lang nghe truyen thong dac sac
1) Trinh do chuyen mon phu hop
2) Ngoai ngO thanh thao
3) Ky nang giao tiep tot;
4) Ky nang xii iy cac tinh huong tot;
5) Pham chat dao dUc tot
1) San pham du lich da dang, dac sac
2) San pham du ijch phii hdp vdi sd thich cua du khach
1) He thong giao thdng thuan Idi;
2) He thong dien, cap thoat nUdc on dmh;
3) He thong thdng tin lien lac thuan tien;
4) He thong cd sd luu trU da dang, dat chuan;
5) He thd'ng cd sd an uong da dang, dat chuan;
6) He tho'ng co sd vui choi giai tri da dang, hap dan;
7) He thong cd sd mua sam da dang;
8) He thdng van chuyen du iich da dang, an toan;
9) He thdng cac cd sd khac (y te, ngan hang, co sd
iam dep, tiem sda chOa, ) thuan tien
Gia tri tmng binh 4.55 4.05 4,26
4,58 4,48 4,55 4,15 4,56 4.32 4,63 4,57 4.70 4,45 4,68 4,47 4.56 4,36 4,52 4,55 3,36 3,45 4,57 4,32
H#sci bien thien (%) 17,74 19,86 19,00 23,44 31,22 44,31 32,11
18,22 32.14 19.53 18.05 17,47
2215 19.55 20.66 18,45 18,83 21.42 20.09 18,95 18.35 19.51 20,08
Trang 6Cac ye'u to
5 Quan ly diem den
du l|ch
6.SUthu§nti$n
tiep c$n diem den
du l|ch
7 SU tham gia ciJa
cdng dd'ng dan cif
d|a phuong vao cac
hoat d$ng du l|ch
Cac chi so danh gia
1) Cd chinh sach, quy hoach phat trien ro rang;
2) Bao ve va gin giQ mdi trudng;
3) Bao dam an ninh, trat tu xa hpi;
4) Bao dam an loan ve thuc pham, tinh mang, tai san
cho du l<hach;
5) Tiep nhan va giai quyet hop Iy cac kie'n nghj eiia du l<hach
1) Tiep can dudng bd thuan tien;
2} Ket ndi vdi cac diem den du Ijch khac thuan Idi
1) Ngudi dan dia phuong than thien, hieu khach;
2) Ngudi dan dja phuong co y thQc bao ve va phat tnen
du Ijch dja phuong
Giatn trung binh
4,65 4,76 4,54 4,66
4,55 4,67 4,56
4,55 4,60
H$sd bien thien (%)
15,06 19,42 45,09 18,63
32,14 44,09 34.81
43,21 23,79
Nguon: XU ly sd lieu dieu tra ciia tdc gid
Nhtf vdy, ed 02 chi so' danh gia cd gia tri trung
binh dtfdi 3,5 dd Id: He thd'ng vui chdi giai tri da
dang, bap dan (3,36) va He thd'ng cd sd mua sam
da dang (3,45) thude yd'u td' Cd sd ha tdng vd vdt
chat ky thuat du lich bi loai khoi khung nghien ctfu
Vide loai 02 cbi so'ddnh gid nay bi loai cung phan
anh thtfc le' mtfc dd tdc ddng khdng nhilu eua hd
thd'ng vui chdi giai tri va mua sam dd'n stf phat trien
eiia DLST eua Tdy Bae Vd khung nghidn ctfu
dtfdc xac dinh theo phtfdng phdp Delphi gdm 7 ye'u
td'dilukien va 30 chi so'ddnh gia phat trien DLST
cua Tdy Bae
5 Ket luan
Vdi viec su* dung phtfdng phdp Delphi, nghien
ctfu da de xuat dtfpe khung nghien ctfu vdi cac yd'u td' didu kidn vd chi so' ddnh gia phdt tridn DLST cua Tay Bac Nghien ctfu ciing chi rd viec cung cd'p them trtfdng hdp dien hinh van dung phtfPng phdp Delphi va khang dinh linh tfu viet cua phtfdng phap nay so vdi phtfdng phap chuyen gia nhd tinh khdch quan eiia kd't qud thu dtfdc Day Cling Id mpt cd sd cd tinb khoa hpc va thtfc tidn nham xde dinh ede ye'u to'dilu kien vdi cdc chi sd' ddnh gid de phdt trien DLST eua Tdy Bae, gdp phan thuc day stf phat trien manh me cua DLST Tay Bac thdi gian tdi; ddng thdi md ra htfdng nghidn mdi ctfu cho nhtfng nghien ctfu tie'p theo •
TAI LISU THAM KHAO:
/ Phgm Trung Luang (2015), Phdt trien du lich sinh thdi d Viet Nam trong bdi cdnh biin ddi khi hau Hgi thao "Moi
trudng vd phdt trien ben vSng trong bdi cdnh bien doi khi hau"
2 Thu tudng Chinh plm, Chien luge phdt tnen du lich Viet Nam den ndm 2020 tdm nhin nam 2030 Quyet dinh sd 201/QD-TTg ngdy 30/12/2011
3 Hsu vd cgng sU (2007), The Delphi Technique: Making sense of concensus Practical Assessement, Research and Evaluation, Vol 12
Trang 74 Lipsehitz and McDonald (1991), Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness: A Clarification of Concepts and Some Measurements for Europe, IMF Working Paper
5 Milier (2006), Determining what could/should be: The Delphi technique and its application Research Association, Ohio
6 Skulmoski vd cdng sU (2007), The Delphi Mothod for graduate research Journal of Infonnation Technology Education, Vol 6
7 www.duUchtaybac.vn
Ngay nh$n bai: 12/3/2019
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va s^a chiia: 22/3/2019
Ngay chaTp nhan dang bai: 31/3/2019
Thdng tin tdc gia:
TS N G U Y I N THI QUYNH H U O N G
Khoa Khach san - Du lich
TrifdngDai hpc Thtfdng mai
USING THE DELPHI METHOD TO DETERMINE
CONDITIONS WITH EVALUATION INDICATORS
OF DEVELOPING THE ECO-TOURISM
OF THE NORTHWEST VIETNAM
• Ph.D NGUYEN THI QUYNH HUONG
Faculty of Hospitality - Tourism Thuongmai Unlveristy
ABSTRACT:
Northwest Vietnam is not only an ideal place which has necessary and sufficient conditions for the sd-ong growth of eco-tourJsm but also is an importan tourism destination in Vietnam's tourism development strategy Therefore, this article used the Delplii method lo determine conditions with evaluation indicators of developing the eco-tourism in the Northwest region It is necessary
in terms of theoretical and practical meanings for developing a research framework for further research
Keywords: Northwest Vietnam, ecotourism, Delphi method