Research on developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province

Therefore, the thesis focuses on analyzing the following parts (1) the current situation of livelihood in Giao An commune through assessment of assets (concentration on agricultural an[r]

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

NGUYEN HOAI THU

RESEARCH ON DEVELOPING

SUSTAINABLE AND

CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOOD IN GIAO AN COMMUNE, GIAO THUY DISTRICT,

NAM DINH PROVINCE

MASTER’S THESIS

Hanoi, 2020

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

NGUYEN HOAI THU

RESEARCH ON DEVELOPING

SUSTAINABLE AND

CLIMATE-RESILIENT LIVELIHOOD IN GIAO AN COMMUNE, GIAO THUY DISTRICT,

NAM DINH PROVINCE

MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT

PLEDGE

I assure that this thesis is the result of my research and has not published The use of other research results and other documents must comply with regulations The citations and references to documents, books, research papers and websites must be in the list of references of the thesis

Author of thesis

(Signature)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PLEDGE i

TABLE OF CONTENTS ii

LIST OF TABLES iv

LIST OF FIGURES vi

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 The necessity of research 1

1.2 Research objectives and tasks 2

1.2.1 Research objectives 2

1.2.2 Research tasks 3

1.3 The research questions and hypotheses 3

1.3.1 Research questions 3

1.3.2 Research hypotheses 4

1.4 Objects and scope of the research 4

1.4.1 Research focus 4

1.4.2 Research scope 4

1.5 Literature review 4

1.5.1 Studies at the international level 5

1.5.2 Studies at the national level 8

1.5.3 Studies in the research site 10

1.6 Overview of the research site 11

1.6.1 Natural features 11

1.6.2 Socio-economic features 13

1.6.3 General assessment of natural, economic and social conditions 15

1.7 Theoretical basis 16

1.7.1 Some concepts 16

1.7.2 Some important contents 17

1.7.3 Research framework 21

CHAPTER 2 METHODOLOGY 22

2.1 Approaches 22

2.1.1 Systematic and interdisciplinary approach 22

2.1.2 Combined top-down and bottom-up approach 23

2.1.3 DFID's sustainable livelihood framework approach 23

2.2 Research methods 23

2.2.1 Collecting secondary data 23

2.2.2 Collecting primary data 25

2.2.3 Data processing 28

CHAPTER 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 30

3.1 Current situation of livelihood of Giao An commune 30

3.1.1 Main livelihood activities 30

3.1.2 Analysis of livelihood assets 34

3.1.3 Measurement and evaluation of livelihood assets 62

3.2 Climate variation in the research site 63

3.2.1 In the past 63

3.3.2 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Giao An commune 70

3.3 Impacts of climate change on main livelihood activities of Giao An commune 71

3.3.1 Climate change impacts on production activities 72

3.3.2 Climate change impacts on income 79

3.3.3 Climate change impacts on daily life 79

3.3.4 Climate change impacts on health 80

3.3.5 Climate change impacts on infrastructures 80

3.4 Resilience to climate change of Giao An commune 82

3.4.1 Resilience to climate change of households in Giao An commune 83

3.4.2 Resilience to climate change of local authorities 85

3.5 Solutions for developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods 88

3.5.1 Proposed principle 88

3.5.2 Groups of solutions 89

CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 95

REFERENCES 97

LIST OF THE AUTHOR'S PUBLICATIONS 100

APPENDIX 101

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1. Demographics by hamlets of Giao An commune in 2017 14

Table 1.2 Opportunities and difficulties in natural, economic and social conditions .15

of Giao An commune Table 1.3. The criteria of climate-resilient livelihood 20

Table 2.1. Number of households need interviewing by each hamlet 26

Table 2.2. Reasons for doing many works and jobs at the same time of the survey 27

respondents Table 2.3. The score classification of livelihood assets 29

Table 2.4. Table of converting percentages into scores 29

Table 3.1. Livelihood assets assessed by the author 34

Table 3.2. The educational level of survey respondents 35

Table 3.3. Sources survey participants gained agricultural production experience 36 Table 3.4 Seniority in agricultural and fishery production activities of surveyed .37

subjects Table 3.5 Survey participants self-assessed the level of confidence in their .37

occupational skills Table 3.6. Information channels on climate change that respondents received by 38

Table 3.7. The definition of climate change was given by the survey participants 38 Table 3.8 The causes of climate change were identified by the survey participants .39

Table 3.9 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of the Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Cooperative, Farmer's Association to their 41

production activities Table 3.10 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of other .43

organizations and unions to their production activities Table 3.11. Statistics of types of land according to many different purposes 45

Table 3.12. Surveyed households assess the quality of land and water they used 47

Table 3.13. Surveyed participants assessed the role of mangroves 49

Table 3.14 Difficulties/challenges faced by mangroves and mudflats in the opinion .49

of the survey participants Table 3.15 The percentage of house types that the survey participants were living .50

in Table 3.16. The percentage of appliances was owned by surveyed households 51

Table 3.17 Assessment of households participating in the survey on infrastructure .56

system in Giao An commune

Table 3.18 Assessment of survey respondents about extreme events that have

66

occurred in Giao An commune in recent year

Table 3.19 Assessment of survey respondents about the frequency of extreme

66

events in Giao An in recent year

Table 3.20 Assessment of survey respondents about the intensity of extreme events

67

in Giao An in recent year

Table 3.21. The calendar of events about extreme events 68

Table 3.22 The increase in temperature in Giao Thuy district compared to the

70

baseline period under RCP 4.5 scenario

Table 3.23 The increase in rainfall in Giao Thuy district compared to the baseline

71

period under RCP 4.5 scenario

Table 3.24 Seasonal calendar in agricultural and fishery activities of households in

livelihood of people in Giao An commune

Table 3.34 Preparations of households participating in the survey before the

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Map of disaster alerts in Giao An commune 13

Figure 1.2. The sustainable livelihood framework 19

Figure 1.3. Analytical framework 21

Figure 1.4. Logical framework 22

Figure 2.1. Primary and secondary occupations of the survey respondents 27

Figure 3.1. Different kinds of livelihoods existing in Giao An commune 30

Figure 3.2. Agricultural livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune 31

Figure 3.3. Fishery livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune 31

Figure 3.4. Percentage of survey participants trained in agriculture and fishery 36

Figure 3.5 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of local 44

authorities to their production activities Figure 3.6. Survey respondents assessed the quality of their houses 50

Figure 3.7 Surveyed subjects assessed the quality of their household devices and .51

appliances Figure 3.8. The main sources of income of the surveyed households 58

Figure 3.9 Surveyed households and local authorities assessed agricultural and .63

fishery livelihood assets in Giao An commune Figure 3.10 The trendline of average annual air temperature in Nam Dinh province .64

in the period of 1989 – 2018 Figure 3.11 The maximum, minimum and average temperature in many years in .64

Nam Dinh province in the period of 1989 – 2018 Figure 3.12 The trendline of total annual rainfall in Nam Dinh province in the .65

period of 1989 – 2018

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

CBA : Community based approach

COP : Conference of the Parties

DFID : Department for International Development

IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LEI : Livelihood effect index

LVI : Livelihood vulnerability index

MONRE : Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

PRA : Participatory Rural Appraisal

RRD : Red River Delta

SLF : Sustainable livelihood framework

SLR : Sea level rise

UNCED : United Nations Conference on Environment and Development XTNP : Xuan Thuy National Park

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Foremost, I would like to express the deepest gratitude to Prof DSc Truong Quang Hoc and Dr Kotera Akihiko, my supervisors, for their enthusiastic guidance, encouragement and useful critiques for my master thesis

My appreciation also extends to all the teachers and staff of the Master’s Program in Climate Change and Development - Vietnam Japan University for their help and encouragement In particular, I would like to thank Ms Bui Thi Hoa for her enthusiastic support during the fieldwork in Giao An commune

I am fully indebted to the officials and people of Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province for providing information to help me complete this thesis

Last but not the least, I wish to acknowledge the support and great love of

my family, my friends and those who kept me going on and the thesis would not have been possible without their input

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 The necessity of research

Climate change (CC) is considered to be a global problem and the most serious challenge for all mankind In which, Vietnam is one of the countries most heavily affected by CC with major manifestations including increasing temperatures, unstable rainfall, rising sea levels and the changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events All not only affect economic development but also create pressures on community, especially agricultural and fishery-based livelihoods which are still highly dependent on nature

The development of sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood is considered to

an effective solution that enables solving CC issues, reducing disaster risks and developing sustainably (Ayeb-Karlsson et al., 2015; Tanner et al., 2015; Amin et al., 2018)

According to CC scenario of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) based on RCP 4.5 of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2100, Vietnam's surface temperatures are predicted to increase in a range of 1.9˚ - 2.4˚C in the North and 1.7˚- 1.9˚C in the South while the annual rainfall would commonly increase by 5 - 10% Also, extreme events would occur more frequently and seriously Sea level in the South would be higher than the North at the end of the 21st century If the sea level rises 100 cm, about 16.8% of the total area of Red River Delta (RRD) will be affected In particular, Nam Dinh, located

at the southern gateway of the RRD with a coastline of 72 km long and 04 large estuaries (such as Ba Lat, Day, Lach Giang and Ha Lan), is the most vulnerable province because of having the highest risk of inundation (58.0%) (MONRE, 2016)

Nam Dinh province often has to face many serious challenges Extreme weather events associated with sea level rise (SLR) and saline intrusion negatively impact the production activities of the people here If the sea level increases by 12 - 74

cm by 2100 compared to the period 1980 - 1999, the total flooded area is estimated at

61.71 km2 In particular, Giao Thuy district has the highest flooded area of about 34.27 km2 (People's Committee of Nam Dinh province, 2011)

Giao An, a commune located in the southeast of Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province, is one of five communes in the buffer zone of Xuan Thuy National Park (XTNP) Its natural conditions are very favorable for the development of agriculture and fishery However, with low topography, Giao An is regularly affected by extreme events as well as CC Take typhoon Son Tinh in 2012 as an example It had caused damage to 60% of the hybrid rice area, 100% of the vegetable farming area, 50% of the clam farming area and 80% of the freshwater aquaculture area in Giao An Recently, typhoon No 1 in 2016 caused 100% inundation of vegetables and newly transplanted rice, as well as many aquatic animals in ponds, cattle and poultry, died The total losses amounted to VND 26.7 billion (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c) Meanwhile, the main livelihoods of the commune are agriculture, aquaculture and fishing which are closely attached and dependent on meteorological and hydrological regimes of the region Consequently, if there are any negative changes in climate, it can adversely impact the livelihood of people here However, in Vietnam as well as in Giao An, there are no studies on climate-resilient livelihoods

In this context, the author selected the topic "Research on developing

sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province" The study focused on agricultural livelihoods comprising rice

farming, vegetable farming and livestock husbandry, as well as fishery livelihoods including fishing and aquaculture Research outcomes are expected to contribute more useful information and recommendations for livelihood development in the research site

in particular and also to be a source for references to areas with similar conditions in general

1.2 Research objectives and tasks

1.2.1 Research objectives

- The current situation of livelihoods in Giao An commune are assessed;

- The climate variation in past, present and future in the research site are identified;

- The impacts of CC on livelihoods in the research site are assessed;

- The resilience to CC of Giao An commune is investigated;

- The solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for Giao

An commune are proposed

- Assessing CC impacts on livelihoods in the research site;

- Investigating the resilience to CC of Giao An commune;

- Proposing solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for the research site

1.3 The research questions and hypotheses

1.3.1 Research questions

(1) What is the current situation of livelihoods in the research site?

(2) How did climate variations occur in the research site?

(3) How has CC affected the livelihoods of Giao An commune community? (4) What is the climate resilience of Giao An commune?

(5) What are the solutions for developing sustainable and climate-resilient for the research site?

1.3.2 Research hypotheses

(1) Giao An commune has a variety of livelihoods In which, agriculture and fishery are main livelihood activities but the available livelihood assets of people in Giao An commune are limited

(2) Climate change has been presented in Giao An commune and is expected to become more and more complicated in the future

(3) The livelihood of people in Giao An commune negatively impacts by CC (4) The resilience level of Giao An commune is moderate

(5) General solution to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for Giao An commune is to raise awareness of local people about CC

1.4 Objects and scope of the research

1.5.1 Studies at the international level

a Livelihoods/sustainable livelihoods

Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (also known as the Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil in 1992, sustainable development has become a common trend that all humanity is working towards Accordingly, in rural development, there is a trend towards sustainable livelihood development including poverty reduction goals

The term “sustainable livelihood” was first introduced in the 1987 Brundtland

Report (also known as Our Common Future) of the World Commission on Environment and Development as a way to integrate economy, society, and ecology in

a policy framework Moreover, sustainable livelihoods are defined as sufficient guarantee of people's needs including food, money and other assets (WCED, 1987)

Previously, livelihood is understood as a means of earning a living to serve the basic needs of life (For example, food, houses, clothes, medicine ) The concept of

“sustainable livelihood” is also understood as an effort to reduce poverty (Krantz,

2001) However, these concepts do not cover all aspects of livelihood activities, especially assets that limit or enhance human capacity

The term “sustainable livelihood” continues to be expanded by Robert

Chambers and Gordon Conway Livelihoods comprise the capabilities, assets (store, resources, claim and access) and activities required for a means of living Livelihoods are only sustainable when they can cope and recover from shocks, maintain or improve their capacity and assets and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for successive generations; as well as contribute to other livelihoods at the local or global level and in the short and long term (Chambers and Conway, 1992)

Based on the study of Chambers and Robert, there have been a lot of arguments

adjusted for the concept of “sustainable livelihood” Of particular importance are the

contributions of Scoones; researchers of the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, UK; and DFID

b Climate change and its impacts on agricultural and fishery livelihoods

In the 21st century, CC is a global problem, the most serious challenge for mankind and the concern of most countries In 1896, CC issue through quantification

of carbon dioxide contribution in causing the greenhouse effect was mentioned by Mr Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist

In the late 1980s, IPCC was established with the United Nations Environment

Programme co-founded (in 1988) to assess "scientific, technical and socio-economic information to allow to understand the risks of CC caused by human activities”

(IPCC, 2007) Since then, there have been many international organizations and scientists assessing the impacts of CC on the fields in regions and territories

All studies and deployments on CC have been analyzed and synthesized in 5 reports of IPCC (First Assessment Report, 1990; Second Assessment Report, 1999; Third Assessment Report, 2001; Fourth Assessment report, 2007 and Fifth Assessment Report, 2014) In particular, IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report received the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore All reports conclude that human activities are the main cause of CC and CC has been creating climate shocks for all of humanity, especially agricultural production and fisheries (IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2014)

In rural areas, the majority of livelihoods are based on natural resources such as agricultural or fishery livelihoods which are very sensitive to changes in weather conditions (Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008; Dzvimbo et al., 2017; Araro et al., 2019) Therefore, any small change in weather conditions can have a great impact on the well-being of rural households in developing countries (Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008; Musemwa et al., 2012; Dzvimbo et al., 2017; Araro et al., 2019) In other words, CC has a huge effect on agricultural, fishery production and livelihood strategies of rural households

c Building climate-resilient livelihoods

Resilience is considered a common research and policy concept in the context

of CC adaptation and development on environmental change (Adger et al., 2011)

According to Tanner et al (2015), the concept of resilience needs to pay more

of CC, the limits of adaptation strategies as well as public implementation resilient livelihood is defined as the power of all generations to maintain and improve their livelihood opportunities and well-being despite environmental disturbances/fluctuations, economic, social and political This is underpinned by empowerment, by action, placed in dynamic social transitions

Climate-According to the working paper of the United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (2015) proposed 6 global policy recommendations that are directly related to climate-resilient livelihoods for developing a more sustainable future including (1) applying the human rights perspective to resilient livelihoods; (2) addressing the root causes of vulnerability thereby enabling the strengthening of the livelihood system; (3) empowering the poor and vulnerable as a key pillar in building resilient livelihoods; (4) assisting those who cannot migrate to places affected by climate stress; (5) policy frameworks in response should include a broader understanding of socio-cultural values (such as identity); and (6) developing robust methods and large datasets to support resilient livelihood support research

“Action research on climate-resilient livelihoods for land-poor and land-less people” project of Integrated Community based Adaptation in the Mekong also mentions the serious impact of CC on the future survival and development of livelihood activities in An Giang and Soc Trang Province especially focuses on women, land-less, land-poor, ethnic minorities and other vulnerable groups Therefore, the project proposes climate-resilient livelihood options for target groups such as azolla (water fern) production, organic mushroom farming, organic onion-based rotational integrated crops management farming, organic bio-fertilizer production… (CARE, 2015)

The climate-resilient livelihood activity in the south-central coastal region of Bangladesh (Amin et al., 2018) shows the situation in developing countries on the resilience of livelihood activities that are limited when not develop climate-resilient alternative livelihood activities, including Bangladesh Housework and fishing are key livelihoods for people in the Barisal district CC impacts on livelihood activities in the area are medium-high level while the resilience of this traditional livelihood is 36% The study calculates a person's annual loss if they do not have any resilience to climate and natural disasters in the study area

1.5.2 Studies at the national level

a Livelihoods/Sustainable livelihoods

In Vietnam, there have been many scientific conferences and projects related to sustainable livelihoods such as the workshop "Sustainable livelihoods for ethnic minorities in the Northeast provinces" on December 21st, 2019 in Tuyen Quang province; the workshop "Sustainable livelihood development, sustainable poverty reduction for the period 2016-2020" on March 1st, 2016 in Ben Tre province; the project "Improving the community capacity in developing and demonstrate sustainable livelihood model to less depend on Bach Ma National Park” in Nam Dong district, Thua Thien Hue province in 2020; the project "Green Ecological Light" on November 25th, 2019 in Mai Chau district, Hoa Binh province…

A lot of research on this issue use DFID's sustainable livelihood framework approach through analysis of assets Bui Van Tuan (2015) on the strengths and weaknesses in the livelihoods of communities in Bac Tu Liem district, Hanoi city used this framework and proposed solutions to develop more sustainable livelihoods such as strengthening close cooperation between the authorities and local people; formulating policies to support capitals; creating linkages between production, processing and market-seeking activities; improving the quality of human resources; investing in infrastructure as well as diversifying industries and sources of income Nguyen Hai Nui

et al (2018) assessed the degree of forest dependence to develop livelihoods of households were still quite high and the users tended to be less sustainable To develop sustainable livelihoods in the context of limited access to forest resources, policy-related solutions have been proposed

b Climate change and its impacts on agricultural and fishery livelihoods

In Vietnam, changes in temperature, rainfall and rising sea levels along with the irregularities of extreme weather events are increasingly threatening production and people's lives Agricultural livelihoods are highly dependent on natural resources (such as climate, soil, water ) so the level of exposure to CC impacts is very large These impacts include: (1) Shrinking and loss of coastal arable land due to SLR, due to erosion leading

to increase riverbank erosion and due to saline intrusion causing increase drought; (2)

Increasing soil degradation due to increasing temperature and drought; (4) Increasing erosion process due to increased rainfall and rainfall intensity; (5) Increasing crop losses, reducing crop and livestock yields due to the direct and indirect effects of the increase in average temperature, weather anomalies, extreme events (typhoons, floods, droughts, damaging colds ); (6) Changes in crop seasons (MONRE and UNDP, 2010)

Tran Tho Dat and Vu Thi Hoai Thu (2012) show the impacts of CC on coastal areas, the vulnerability of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of CC, the adaptive capacity

of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of CC, and livelihood support to adapt to CC The book emphasizes the important role of household livelihood assets Meanwhile, CC is one of the factors in the context of vulnerability, affecting livelihood assets and thereby changing livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes of households

Le Nguyen Thu Huong (2014) points out that the livelihood activities of people

in Giao Xuan commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province are greatly affected

by natural disasters and climate change Cultivation, livestock husbandry and aquaculture activities as well as other livelihood activities such as tourism and trading are all impacted by typhoons, heavy rains, floods, droughts In particular, agricultural livelihoods are most vulnerable, followed by aquaculture and fishing

Hoang Thi Ngoc Ha (2015) mentions that CC and SLR have a strong impact on livelihoods of households in Cat Hai Island, Cat Hai District, Hai Phong city such as reducing the area and output of crops - livestock, increasing risks for aquaculture and seafood processing, narrowing coastal fishing grounds, risk of losing salt making All of them lead to loss of household income, increase unemployment, change and find new jobs In addition, CC also adversely affects environmental sanitation and people's health

c Building climate-resilient livelihoods

In Vietnam, the term climate-resilient livelihoods are not popular, but usually often livelihoods adaptation to CC or sustainable livelihoods and adaptation to CC There is no specific definition of this term in Vietnam but it has been mentioned in several workshops In the conference "Developing climate-resilient livelihoods based

on ecosystems approach", Prof DSc Truong Quang Hoc said that building resilient livelihoods should enhance resilience in both communities and ecosystems through the management and conservation of natural resources, watershed

climate-management Developing climate-resilient livelihoods is strengthening based CC adaptation models and community-based livelihood models adaptation to CC

ecosystem-=> Through the studies above, CC is already present and having strong impacts

on all sectors and areas in life In particular, agricultural and fishery livelihoods are the most vulnerable and highly affected by CC because these activities are mainly based on nature There have been many studies on the situation of livelihoods, sustainable livelihoods as well as impacts of CC on livelihoods and proposing solutions for developing sustainable and adaptive livelihoods However, in Vietnam, there are still not many workshops, projects or researches related to building climate-resilient livelihoods Meanwhile, this is considered as a constructive boundary object to address issues related

to CC, disaster risk reduction and developing in a more sustainable and resilient manner

1.5.3 Studies in the research site

There have been many topics, projects and researches related to CC carried out

in Giao An commune in particular and Giao Thuy district in general

The project "Strengthening resilience of Vietnam's coastal biosphere reserves against CC and environmental catastrophe through resource management and sustainable livelihood development" (2011 - 2013) was conducted by Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, the Swedish Embassy The project had an overall objective of improving the resilience to CC and environmental disasters

of the biosphere reserve, contributing to ensuring the harmony between conservation and development through enhancing the management of marine resources and the development of sustainable livelihoods for the community

Wetlands Alliance Program (2007 - 2013) supported livelihood development for communities in the buffer zone through the establishment of XTNP Mushroom Club; supporting honey production in Giao An; developing gardens and VAC models

in Giao Xuan, Giao An and Giao Hai communes

The project "Building partnerships for Improving Vietnam’s coastal communities’ adaptive capacity to impacts of climate changes" (2012-2014) funded

by the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) implemented in

the buffer zone of XTNP to increase the resilience of people in coastal areas that are most vulnerable to the impacts of CC and natural disasters

Ngo Van Chieu (2012) showed that CC leads to crop failures, increasing disease levels and reducing biodiversity and fisheries stocks SLR also directly affects coastal residents, some households suffer from losses of houses and assets One of the proposed solutions is to set up local disaster warning systems

In 2013, the Centre for Marinelife Conservation and Community Development assessed Giao An as a commune affected by natural disasters such as typhoons, floods, drought and hoarfrost (MCD, 2013) In addition, there is a master thesis by Tran Thi Hong Hanh (2016) who initially assessed the impact of CC on livelihood models in Giao An commune

=> Several projects and studies in Giao An commune have assessed the impact

of CC on livelihoods qualitatively However, there are no quantitative studies and full analysis of livelihood assets as well as assessing resilience to CC Therefore, the thesis focuses on analyzing the following parts (1) the current situation of livelihood in Giao

An commune through assessment of assets (concentration on agricultural and fishery livelihoods); (2) variations of climate in the last 30 years and trends of CC up to the end of the 21 st century in Giao An commune; (3) CC impacts on livelihoods (including the resilience to CC of Giao An commune); and (4) sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood solutions based on the results The results of the study are

to contribute to the theory of sustainable and climate-resilience livelihoods as well as

a basis for Giao An commune to formulate appropriate socio-economic development plans in the context of CC

1.6 Overview of the research site

1.6.1 Natural features

a Geographical location

Giao An, which is a coastal commune in the southeast of Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province, is one of 5 communes in the buffer zone of XTNP Giao An has

a flat topography and a slope from the West to the Southeast (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018a)

- The North borders Giao Thanh commune;

- The South borders the East Sea;

- The East borders Giao Thien commune;

- The West borders Giao Lac commune

Rainfall: Average annual rainfall is from 1700 to 1800 mm, rainfall concentrates

in July, August, September and October with nearly 80% of the total rainfall of the year The day with the highest rainfall is up to 200 - 250 mm Rainfall varies from year

to year without decreasing from 1986 to 2015 and does not follow any natural rules (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2017)

Winds and typhoons: During the year, there are 2 prevailing wind directions including Southeast wind blows in summer at a speed of 2 - 4 m/s and Northeast wind does not have a high wind speed but usually causes sudden cold in winter months.On average, each year it is affected by 5 - 10 typhoons with heavy rain and strong winds

c Hydrological characteristics

Giao An has a dense network of rivers In addition to the two main rivers named Nguyen Van Be and Hang Tong rivers, there are tributaries These are responsible for not only water supply for agricultural production but also drainage in

Figure 1.1 Map of disaster alerts in Giao An commune

(Source: MCD, 2013)

1.6.2 Socio-economic features

Giao An is a coastal commune in Giao Thuy district formed by alluvial deposits of the Red River About 300 to 400 years ago, this land was a pristine beach with lots of reeds and muddy With the solidarity, the people of Giao An were together to embank dykes, encroach the sea and implement soil conditioning By the end of 1860, Giao An commune was established, comprising Trung Uyen, Hanh Thien, Xuan Hy, Thuy Nhai, Hoanh Lo, Tra Huong and Tra Lu villages (divided into 16 hamlets) At the beginning of

1972, implementing the Resolution of the Party Central Committee, the Resolution of the People's Council at the commune level, Giao An once again continued to embank the dyke, encroach upon the sea and organized the migration of people to establish 6 hamlets

of Dien Bien new economic zone (from hamlet 16 to 22) From a poor commune with previously poor infrastructure, Giao An has been constantly innovating and developing Currently, the infrastructure is gradually being improved, the culture and society are growing along with the good implementation of social security policies That increasingly enhances the material and spiritual life of the people in the commune In 2017, Giao An was recognized as a commune fulfilled the criteria of a new rural area (USAID, 2017)

a Economic characteristics

- Agricultural production

+ Cultivation: The total cultivated area of spring-summer crop in 2019 was 400.1 ha The average rice yield reached 63.88 quintals/ha The total area of

vegetables was 70.9 ha, of which the vegetables in Dien Bien new economic zone was 25.2 ha (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2019)

+ Livestock: According to the statistics as of April 1st, 2019, the total number of cattle and poultry in the whole commune was as follows: 2,448 pigs; 102 buffaloes, cows and goats; 23,177 poultry; and 3,157 other kinds of livestock After the outbreak of African swine fever, many households had shifted their investments to poultry farming;

up to now, Giao An had 43,177 poultry (Giao An Commune People's Committee, 2019)

- Fishery production

The total area for aquaculture was 669.2 ha In which, the area of shrimp ponds was 610.2 ha, the area of freshwater aquaculture was 59 ha The total production of fishery products from catches and aquaculture was estimated at 2,200 tons (Giao An Commune People's Committee, 2019)

b Social and cultural characteristics

In 2017, Giao An commune had a population of 3,090 households and 9,060 people The population was distributed into 22 villages (Table 1.1) The commune has two main religions: Buddhism and Catholicism Of which, Catholics accounted for 31% and 69% was Buddhists (People's Committee of Giao An Commune, 2017b)

Table 1.1 Demographics by hamlets of Giao An commune in 2017

1.6.3 General assessment of natural, economic and social conditions

a Advantage

In general, Giao An commune is a land with a lot of silt and alluvium Along with the dense network of rivers and the tropical monsoon climate, Giao An commune is very favorable for the development of agriculture and aquaculture (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2013) Moreover, Giao An is surrounded by mangrove, adjacent to XTNP, which is oriented to develop into a biosphere reserve of the RRD

b Disadvantage

As a coastal commune, Giao An is frequently affected by natural disasters and extreme weather events Of which, 6 hamlets located in Dien Bien new economic zone are located outside the central dyke so they are often affected by floods, typhoons and high tides (MCD, 2013)

Moreover, the ecological environment in some residential areas as well as the field ecosystem are affected by human activities In Giao An commune, the process of treating waste in residential areas has not been synchronized along with the people's habit of using chemical fertilizers and pesticides (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2019) Over 50% of nitrogen, 50% of potassium and about 80% of phosphate were excess, which directly or indirectly caused environmental pollution Besides, the improper and unbalanced use of fertilizers as well as the use of unqualified fertilizers all adversely affected the soil environment Moreover, in the process of production and cultivation, the use of insecticides, fungicides, herbicides mainly used for rice farming also polluted the soil Plant protection drugs used an average of 0.5 - 1 kg/ha/year but in many places in the commune, chemical residues in soil have been detected (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017a)

Agricultural production activities of Giao An commune are currently facing several difficulties, especially livestock diseases

Table 1.2 Opportunities and difficulties in natural, economic and social conditions of

Opportunities Difficulties

- The dense network of rivers;

- Tropical monsoon climate;

- Mangrove ecosystems surrounding

and near XTNP

- Waste, garbage + habits of using chemical fertilizers + pesticides -> Ecological

environment and field ecosystem are affected;

- There are still some difficulties in agriculture, especially in livestock husbandry

1.7 Theoretical basis

1.7.1 Some concepts

Climate change refers to changes in climate state that can be known (for example, by using statistical tests) by changes in mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for over a long period, usually decades or longer CC may

be caused by natural internal processes or external forcings such as solar cycle modifications, volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2014)

Livelihood includes capabilities, assets (both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living (DFID, 1999; 2007)

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that can cope with and recover from impacts, stresses and shocks Besides, it can maintain or promote its capabilities and assets both now and in the future without undermining the natural resources base (DFID, 2007)

Livelihood adaptation to CC is a livelihood that must be able to cope with CC/reduce greenhouse gas emissions and recover from CC impacts, especially natural disasters/extreme weather events (storms, floods, droughts, extreme hot weathers, damaging cold…) as well as ensure, maintain or stably increase productivity/output and at the same time be appropriate with local socio-economic capabilities and conditions (CARE, 2015)

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood exposed to shocks and stresses caused by CC has the capable of resisting, absorbing, adapting and recovering from the impacts of the shocks and stresses in a timely and efficient manner, including through preservation, restoration and when it is possible to improve its basic structures

From there, this term is defined in the thesis as follows:

Climate change is a change in climate state which includes temperature, rainfall, SLR and extreme weather events over a long period of about 30 years

Livelihood includes all assets (such as human, social, physical, physical and financial capitals) and activities necessary to be the means of human life

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that can solve and recover from external stresses and impacts and does not depend on external support Moreover, assets are used effectively at the same time the existing capacity and resources are enhanced

Climate-resilient livelihood means a livelihood can be adapted, reorganized and developed to improve the sustainability of the system, which makes better preparations for CC impacts in the future Climate-resilient livelihood includes strengthening not only the internal capacity of livelihoods (livelihood resources) but also climate resilience

1.7.2 Some important contents

In this section, the thesis presents the theoretical basis of the main contents are (1) sustainable livelihood and (2) climate-resilient livelihood

a Sustainable livelihood

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that is able to solve or recover from stresses; maintaining existing capabilities and resources without compromising the natural resource base (Scoones, 1998) Determining sustainable livelihoods requires the following criteria or analytical framework:

- Criteria for assessing the sustainability of livelihoods

Scoones (1998) and DFID (1999, 2007) agreed to give some criteria to assess the sustainability of livelihoods in 4 aspects: economic, social, environmental and institutional

Economic sustainability: is assessed primarily by the increase in household income

Social sustainability: is assessed through some criteria such as creating more jobs, reducing poverty, ensuring food security and improving welfare

Environmental sustainability: is assessed through more sustainable use of natural resources (land, water, forests, aquatic resources ) without causing environmental damage (such as environmental pollution, environmental degradation ) and able to adapt to external stresses and shocks

Institutional sustainability: is assessed through many criteria such as a fully and comprehensively developed legal system, a participatory policy-making process of citizens, agencies/organizations in the public and private sector work effectively; thereby creating an enabling environment for institutions and policies to help livelihoods improve continuously over time (Nguyen Van Suu, 2010; Nguyen Tho Dat and Vu Thi Hoai Thu, 2012)

- Sustainable livelihood framework

The livelihood framework is a diagram designed to comprehensively consider all the different factors affecting livelihoods, especially the opportunities to shape a human livelihood strategy

A lot of livelihood frameworks have been proposed, in which, the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF) developed by Department for International Development (DFID) in 1999, has been widely applied by scholars and organizations This SLF has elements and components of livelihoods, consisting of (1) livelihood assets; (2) livelihood strategies; (3) livelihood outcomes; (4) policies, institutions and processes; and (5) vulnerability context (Figure 1.2)

Figure 1.2 The sustainable livelihood framework

(Source: DFID, 2001)

According to the above framework, it can be seen that there are two groups of factors affecting household livelihoods The first group relates to the household level, comprising livelihood assets, livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes The second group relates to factors outside the household, including transforming structures and processes and vulnerability context These elements both play independent roles and interact with each other

Livelihood assets are both tangible and intangible capitals that people have to sustain or develop their livelihoods Livelihood resources are divided into 5 main types: (1) natural capital, (2) physical capital, (3) financial capital, (4) human capital and (5) social capital

(1) Natural capital: includes natural resources that humans can use to carry out livelihood activities, such as land, forests, marine resources, water, air, biodiversity (2) Physical capital: consists of basic infrastructure systems supporting livelihood activities, such as roads, houses, water supply, drainage, energy (electricity)…

(3) Financial capital: comprises the various financial sources that people use to achieve their livelihood outcomes, including savings, cash, jewelry, loans, incomes… (4) Human capital: includes skills, knowledge, experience, work capacity, health, education levels that enable people to implement various livelihood strategies and achieve get different livelihood outcomes

(5) Social capital: implies the relationships between people and people in the society on which people rely on to carry out livelihood activities, mainly including social networks, members of community organizations, market access…

b Climate-resilient livelihood

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood which when exposed to climate shocks and stresses, has the capacity to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of the shocks and stresses in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation, restoration and where possible, improvement of its essential basic structures and functions (CARE, 2015)

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood that meets the following needs (1) sustainable, (2) climate-resistant, (3) gender equality and (4) bring key benefits to livelihood groups

Table 1.3 The criteria of climate-resilient livelihood

I Sustainable Livelihoods Criteria

1 Economic Compatibility 1.1 Market Demand & Access

1.2 Financial Investment & Risk 1.3 Skills and Technology

2 Institutional Compatibility 2.1 Regulations

2.2 Fiscal Policy 2.3 Program Assistance

3 Socio-cultural Compatibility 3.1 Local/Indigenous Knowledge

3.2 Suitability for the poor 3.3 Suitability for Women 3.4 Suitability for Ethnic Minorities 3.5 Suitability for People with Disabilities 3.6 Location

II Climate Resilient Livelihood Criteria

4 Climate Compatibility 4.1 Resilience to Existing Climate Change

& Impacts 4.2 Resilience to Future Climate Change & Impacts

4.3 CO2 Emission Impacts

5 Environmental Compatibility 5.1 Biodiversity Impacts

5.2 Sustainable Resource Use 5.3 Suitability for Ecosystem Shifts

Criteria category Criteria

(Source: CARE, 2015)

1.7.3 Research framework

The center of the framework is livelihood (including agricultural and fishery livelihoods) assessed by 5 livelihood assets This livelihood is heavily affected by shocks and external contexts such as policies, environmental problems, especially CC Based on the impacts/potential impacts of CC on agricultural and fishery livelihoods

as well as the resilience of Giao An commune, solutions to develop livelihoods in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner were suggested (Figure 1.3 and 1.4)

Figure 1.3 Analytical framework

LIVELIHOOD (Agricultural livelihood;

Fishery livelihood)

Livelihood assets

Natural capital Human

capital

Financial capital Physical capital

Social capital

APPLICATION

SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE – RESILIENT LIVELIHOODS

Policy Science and technology Indigenous

knowledge

SHOCKS

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

…

Policy Science and technology Indigenous knowledge

Figure 1.4 Logical framework

CHAPTER 2 METHODOLOGY

2.1 Approaches

The thesis used 3 approaches as follows: (1) systematic, interdisciplinary approach; (2) combined top-down and bottom-up approach; and (3) DFID's sustainable livelihoods approach

2.1.1 Systematic and interdisciplinary approach

Systematic approach being a way of seeing the world through its system structure, hierarchy and dynamics is a comprehensive and dynamic approach (Nguyen Dinh Hoe and Vu Van Hieu, 2013) Livelihood is a holistic system and is influenced

by many factors such as policy institutions, ecosystems, CC Therefore, this approach helped the author have a systematic perspective on the interactions and links between the elements in the livelihood system

Interdisciplinary approach is to use the philosophy, knowledge and methods of a field but within the framework of another field (Truong Quang Hoc, 2012) The

across the subject's boundaries to create new knowledge and theories to achieve research objectives Therefore, the proposed solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilience livelihoods required the integration of various fields such as fishery; economy; society…

2.1.2 Combined top-down and bottom-up approach

The bottom-up approach otherwise known as community-based approach (CBA) is a sustainable approach and is implemented based on the principle of “Carry out from the community, rely on the community and benefit the community” in order

to study the current situation of livelihoods and thereby find out solutions to improve the activeness of people in responding to natural disasters and CC (Vo Trung Tin, 2016) CBA creates flexibility in adapting to CC, taking advantage of internal resources, available (people, means) in the community

Moreover, if both bottom-up and top-down approach was used simultaneously through studying guidelines and policies of all levels, development strategies, plannings, and action plans of sectors and localities, the activities to assess the current situation and develop climate-resilient livelihoods would be systematic and consistent, suitable with the resources of the community as well as the guidelines and policies of the local authorities

2.1.3 DFID's sustainable livelihood framework approach

Sustainable livelihood framework is a visualization tool developed by DFID from the 1990s to understand the different types of livelihoods Its objective is to help users understand different aspects of livelihoods, especially factors that create problems or opportunities (DFID, 1999)

DFID's SLF includes five main components such as vulnerability context, livelihood assets, transforming and structures and processes, livelihood strategies, livelihoods outcomes which emphasize the role of policies and institutions (DFID, 1999; 2007)

2.2 Research methods

2.2.1 Collecting secondary data

Desk research and secondary data collection

The thesis has collected, reviewed, analyzed and synthesized studies, topics and documents related to the methods of assessing CC impacts, principles and elements in the framework of sustainable livelihood development as well as climate-resilient livelihoods as a basis of constructing the methodology and research method

of the thesis

The information and data directly related to Giao An commune were collected

as a basis for assessing the current status of livelihoods as well as investigating the impacts of CC on the main livelihoods thereby proposing appropriate solutions

+ Data on temperature and rainfall in the period of 1989 – 2018 were measured

at Nam Dinh meteorological station; Disaster data collected from 2003 – 2019 were used to analyze and assess CC in Nam Dinh in general and Giao An in particular

+ Reports on socio-economic development in the past 5 years (2015 - 2019): used to extract data related to the socio-economic development status as well as agricultural and fishery production

+ Report on results of the implementation of new rural construction of Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province in 2017: used to cite the results of the implementation of new rural construction

+ Reports on land use planning of Giao Thuy district and Giao An commune with the vision until 2020, 5-year land-use plan from 2011 to 2015: used to quote information regarding the natural conditions of the research site

+ Report on current land use status of Giao An commune in 2014: used to quote data on land in general, area of agriculture and aquaculture in particular

+ Reports on disaster response, search and rescue in the last 5 years (2015 - 2019), Report on disaster risk 2017: used to cite the impacts of the type of natural disasters and their damages as well as the plans prepared by the local authorities in recent years

+ Action plan to respond to CC in Nam Dinh province with a vision to 2020: to extract the potential impacts of CC on Nam Dinh province (including Giao An commune) through the scenario

+ Reports, researches, assessments and surveys related to the research site

2.2.2 Collecting primary data

- Sociological research method

The questionnaire for households was designed in the way of statistical analysis and processing through SPSS version 24.0 software (See Appendix 3.1 for details on the questionnaire) This questionnaire was tested for 05 households in the first survey in April 2019 and after that, it was revised and adjusted to suit the local situation as well as the community

Furthermore, selecting the sample (household) was based on the principles of statistical calculation with the non-probability sampling method

* Structure of the questionnaire:

With the total number of households was known, Yamane's formula 1968) was used to calculate the sample size that could accurately represent the total of 3,149 households living in Giao An commune (According to the interview with Mr Pham Anh Tuan - Deputy chief of communal police posts, September 2019) with a margin of error is 10%

(1967-n= N/1+N(e)2Where: n = corrected sample size; N = population size; e = Margin of error From the formula, the sample size for this study was about 100 households A quota sampling method was used The author divided 100 households equally to 22 hamlets of Giao An commune with the rate of 100/3149 was about 3.2% The number

of households to be interviewed was calculated using the formula 3.2% times the actual number of households in each hamlet Therefore, hamlet 8 had the highest percentage of households who need interviewing (8.0%) because this was the most densely populated area in Giao An commune (Table 2.1)

After that, the households were selected according to the convenience sampling method with the support of local authorities as well as the help of the village heads to ensure the objectivity and diversity of respondents In particular, the surveyed group was quite diverse with representative socio-economic characteristics

Table 2.1 Number of households need interviewing by each hamlet

(Unit: Household)

Hamlet

Number of households

in reality

Number of households

to interview

Hamlet

Number of households

in reality

Number of households

The majority of households were involved in activities in the agricultural sector Of which, 70.7% considered agriculture was their main job and 24.6% considered agriculture was their second job Next, 19.2% thought fishery activities

consisting of fishing and aquaculture were the main occupation while 45.6% were secondary occupations (Figure 2.1)

Figure 2.1 Primary and secondary occupations of the survey respondents

(Ratio: %)

Regarding the reasons for doing many works/occupations at the same time, 53.3% of survey participants agreed with the reason to "earn more income" Next,

"other reasons" accounted for 33.3% of which the most mentioned one was

"agricultural for domestic use” Besides, 22.7% was both for the reason "income from the main job is not stable" and "have free time" Finally, "go to work for fun" has the lowest percentage of consensus (5.3%) (Table 2.2)

Table 2.2 Reasons for doing many works and jobs at the same time of the survey

respondents

(Ratio: %)

- Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA)

The thesis used various PRA tools to work with local authorities and people

to collect qualitative and quantitative information and thereby assess (1) hazards from CC/extreme events of the research site; (2) losses and damages from CC to

communities as well as agricultural and fishery activities; (3) community capacity of responding to CC The tools were as follows:

+ In-depth interview: The author exchanged and collected information from 2 groups including (1) household and (2) local authorities (See Appendix 3.2 and 3.3 for details on questions of in-depth interview) In which, there were 15 households and 24 civil services participating in an in-depth interview The reason to choose households was that through the interview process, they were open-hearted and had extensive experience in the fields of agriculture/fishery Moreover, they also understood the local activities over the years For the civil services, the information related to the commune, livelihood situations, climate hazards, vulnerability and resilience of Giao An commune were provided Interviewing with local authorities supported the verification, screening and helping the author make the most objective assessment

+ Seasonal calendar: Seasonal calendar provided a timeline of livelihoods as well

as identified changes in climate factors From there, the difficulties and opportunities affecting the production activities of Giao An people in a 1-year cycle were investigated

+ Calendar of events (Timeliness): The event calendar focused on the calendar

of events about extreme events

2.2.3 Data processing

- Application of SPSS version 24.0 software

Information on the results of 100 households surveyed by the questionnaire was entered and processed by SPSS version 24.0 software

- Application of Microsoft Excel

Data on the temperature and rainfall at Nam Dinh meteorological station were included in Microsoft Excel software to analyze the trend in the period of 1989 -

2018

- Measurement and evaluation of livelihood assets

The current situation of Giao An's livelihood was assessed through analysis of livelihood assets including human, natural, social, financial and physical capital Based on DFID's SLF together with studies on indicators to assess livelihood assets (Li et al., 2014; UNDP, 2017; Yang et al., 2018), and evaluation indicators for Giao

An commune were developed (See Appendix 1.1 for details on indicators and descriptions to measure and evaluate livelihood assets)

The scores of the secondary indicators were determined by not only the households participating in the survey but also the leaders of local authorities in Giao

An commune Then, the scores of primary indicators were the average scores of them

The value of livelihood assets is assessed on a scale starting from 0 to ending to

5 points The thesis consulted previous studies and classified the score of livelihood assets as well as converted the percentage into a scale as follows:

Table 2.3 The score classification of livelihood assets

Table 2.4 Table of converting percentages into scores

CHAPTER 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1 Current situation of livelihood of Giao An commune

3.1.1 Main livelihood activities

Survey results showed that Giao An commune had 10 different kinds of livelihoods (Figure 3.1) Depending on livelihood strategies, households can carry out activities individually or may be combined with other activities or in combination with other livelihoods

Figure 3.1 Different kinds of livelihoods existing in Giao An commune

In particular, agriculture and fishery were the main livelihood activities accounting for a large proportion of the local economic structure (67.0%) (People's Committee of

Giao An commune’s livelihoods

Agriculture

Fishery Civil service

Trading

Making clothes Freelance

Planting cash crops

Growing mushrooms

Feeding bees

VAC/ Large scale farm system