Emercy analysis and enerdy modeling for the sustainable use of the lower mekong river basin

Thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Emergy Analysis and Energy Modeling for the Sustainable Use of the Lower Mekong River Basin by Dang Viet Hung Department of Environmental

Thesis for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Emergy Analysis and Energy Modeling

for the Sustainable Use of the Lower Mekong River Basin

by Dang Viet Hung

Department of Environmental Engineering

The Graduate School

Pukyong National University

August 2006

Emergy Analysis and Energy Modeling

for the Sustainable Use of the Lower Mekong River Basin

Advisor: Prof Suk Mo Lee

by Dang Viet Hung

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements

for the degree of

Doctor of Philosophy

in Department of Environmental Engineering, The Graduate School,

Pukyong National University

August 2006

Emergy Analysis and Energy Modeling

for the Sustainable Use of the Lower Mekong River Basin

A dissertation

by Dang Viet Hung

Approved by:

(Chairman) Prof Chung Kil Park

(Member) Prof Lim Seok Kang (Member) Prof Dae Seok Kang

(Member) Dr Jin Woo Yang (Member) Prof Suk Mo Lee

August 31, 2006

Table of Contents

List of Tables iii

List of Figures iv

List of Appendixes vi

Abstract vii

I Introduction 1

II Study Site and Research Methods 5

1 Study Site 5

1.1 Study area 5

1.2 Current situation 12

1.3 Recent plans of development and environment in LMR Basin 19

2 Research Methods 21

2.1 Emergy Analysis 21

2.2 Energy Modeling 31

III Results 38

1 Emergy Analysis of LMR Basin 38

1.1 LMR Countries 38

1.2 LMR Basin 53

2 Energy Modeling of LMR Basin 59

2.1 Energy systems diagram and Model of LMR Basin 59

2.2 Calibration of LMR Basin Model 63

2.3 Current simulation and Reference scenarios of LMR Basin Model 66

2.4 Simulation for the Sustainable Use of LMR Basin 71

IV Discussion 82

1 Comparison of Emergy Indices from Emergy Analyses 82

1.1 LMR Countries 82

1.2 LMR Basin 84

2 Energy Modeling for the Sustainable Use of LMR Basin 87

2.1 Sustainable Use and Ecological Engineering 87

2.2 Application for feedback emergy 90

2.3 Ecological engineering approaches 92

2.4 Possibility of ecological engineering 94

V Conclusion 95

Appendix 97

Acknowledgments 127

References 129

List of Tables

Table 2.1 Areas and Populations of LMR Countries 5

Table 2.2 Parts of area and population of LMR Countries in LMR Basin 10

Table 2.3 Rice yield of LMR Basin in 2000 13

Table 2.4 Fisheries production of LMR Basin in 2001 13

Table 2.5 Forest cover in LMR Basin in 1993 and 1997 18

Table 2.6 Statistical References 28

Table 3.1 Emergy Analysis Table of Laos in 2003 39

Table 3.2 Emergy Analysis Table of Cambodia in 2003 41

Table 3.3 Emergy Analysis Table of Vietnam in 2003 43

Table 3.4 Emergy Analysis Table of Thailand in 2003 45

Table 3.5 Emergy Indices of LMR Countries 48

Table 3.6 Comparison of emergy uses per unit area and emergy uses per capita 49

Table 3.7 Emergy Analysis Table of LMR Basin in 2003 55

Table 3.8 Emergy Indices of LMR Basin 58

Table 3.9 Calibration table of the model of LMR Basin 63

Table 3.10 Calibration table of the model with Feedback 73

Table 3.11 Values of K4, K7, and K8 with various percents of feedback 74

Table 3.12 Values of K4, K7, K8 and feedback emergy for the sustainable use 81

Table 3.13 Values of percent of feeback and total emergy storage for the sustainable use81 Table 4.1 Ecological engineering for feedback emergy 91

List of Figures

Fig 1.1 Methodology of Thesis 4

Fig 2.1 Map of Cambodia 6

Fig 2.2 Map of Laos 7

Fig 2.3 Map of Thailand 8

Fig 2.4 Map of Vietnam 9

Fig 2.5 Location of LMR Basin 11

Fig 2.6 Completed hydropower projects in the Mekong Basin 15

Fig 2.7 Forecast of regional electric power demand (MW) 16

Fig 2.8 Decrease in forest cover of LMR Basin (ha) 18

Fig 2.9 Emergy quality chain used to calculate solar transformity 21

Fig 2.10 Concepts of energy transformation hierarchy and transformity 23

Fig 2.11 Autocatalytic production process 24

Fig 2.12 Order arranged from the left side with low transformities to the right side with high transformities 25

Fig 2.13 Summary diagram of emergy flows 27

Fig 2.14 Diagram illustrating emergy indices for a national or regional economy 29

Fig 2.15 Scales of space and time 31

Fig 2.16 Relations among environmental science, ecology, energy modeling, and environmental management & technology 32

Fig 2.17 Steps of energy modeling 33

Fig 2.18 Diagram with numbers of one kind 34

Fig 2.19 Equation for a storage model with five kinds of pathways 35

Fig 3.1 Emergy signature of Laos 40

Fig 3.2 Summary diagram of Laos 40

Fig 3.3 Emergy signature of Cambodia 42

Fig 3.4 Summary diagram of Cambodia 42

Fig 3.5 Emergy signature of Vietnam 44

Fig 3.7 Summary diagram of Vietnam 47

Fig 3.8 Summary diagram of Thailand 47

Fig 3.9 Emergy used per unit area of LMR Countries 50

Fig 3.10 Emergy used per capita of LMR Countries 50

Fig 3.11 Emergy to money ratios of LMR Countries 51

Fig 3.12 Emergy indices of LMR Countries 52

Fig 3.13 Energy systems diagram of LMR Basin for emergy analysis 54

Fig 3.14 Emergy signature of LMR Basin 56

Fig 3.15 Summary diagram of emergy flows in LMR Basin Economy 57

Fig 3.16 Energy systems diagram of LMR Basin for energy modeling 60

Fig 3.17 Numerical systems diagram of LMR Basin 61

Fig 3.18 Simulation model of LMR Basin 62

Fig 3.19 Simulation of LMR Basin Model 66

Fig 3.20 Validation of LMR Basin Model 67

Fig 3.21 Scenarios with increasing Pg (Q graphs) 68

Fig 3.22 Scenarios with increasing Pg (A graphs) 69

Fig 3.23 Scenarios with increasing Pg (M graphs) 69

Fig 3.24 Scenarios with increasing exports (Q graphs) 70

Fig 3.25 Scenarios with increasing exports (A graphs) 70

Fig 3.26 Scenarios with increasing exports (M graphs) 71

Fig 3.27 Simulation model with feedback 72

Fig 3.28 Modeling with feedback (Q graphs) 74

Fig 3.29 Modeling with feedback (A graphs) 75

Fig 3.30 Modeling with feedback (M graphs) 75

Fig 3.31 Modeling with feedback (GRDP graphs) 76

Fig 3.32 Contribution of Q and A in the total emergy storage at various percents of feedback 77

Fig 3.33 Quantities of the total emergy storage at various percents of feedback in comparison 78

Fig 3.34 Unsustainable use of LMR Basin without feedback from now to 2300 80

Fig 3.35 Sustainable use of LMR Basin with feedback increased gradually 80

List of Appendixes

Appendix 3.1.1-1 Footnotes to Emergy Analysis Table of Laos in 2003 97

Appendix 3.1.1-2 Footnotes to Emergy Analysis Table of Cambodia in 2003 102

Appendix 3.1.1-3 Footnotes to Emergy Analysis Table of Vietnam in 2003 107

Appendix 3.1.1-4 Footnotes to Emergy Analysis Table of Thailand in 2003 113

Appendix 3.1.2-1 Footnotes to Emergy Analysis Table of LMR Basin in 2003 119

Appendix 3.2.3-1 Microsoft Visual Basic Program for simulating LMR Basin Model without feedback 124

Appendix 3.2.4-1 Microsoft Visual Basic Program for simulating LMR Basin Model with feedback 125

Emergy Analysis and Energy Modeling for the Sustainable Use of

the Lower Mekong River Basin

Dang Viet Hung

Department of Environmental Engineering, The Graduate School,

Pukyong National University

Abstract

Emergy analysis and energy modeling were performed to supply the insight and to give the way for sustainable use of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMR Basin) which supplies benefits both to human society and natural environment Emergy analyses in 2003 showed that about 96%, 94%, 81%, and 70% of the total emergy used in Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand (LMR Countries), respectively, were derived from within the country The emergy money ratios decrease from Laos to Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand with 6.64E+13 sej/$, 5.34E+13 sej/$, 3.09E+13 sej/$, and 6.52E+12 sej/$, respectively The EmSIs of Laos and Cambodia were very high with the values of 53.29 and 38.66, while the EmSIs of Vietnam and Thailand were moderate with the values of 0.98 and 0.71 In LMR Basin, real wealth contributions of natural environment to human economy are 49% The most important renewable resource is the chemical potential of rain of 1429.23E+20 sej/yr The second most important renewable resource is the chemical potential of river of 362.68E+20 sej/yr Agriculture production is the main economic activity People in the basin are among the poorest in the world which the carrying capacity of natural environment was equal to 38% population of the basin

Nowadays, LMR Basin is entering a new phase of development with high growth rate From energy modeling results, the current development is unsustainable The scenarios with increasing exports showed that increased exploitation of environmental resource for economic development in LMR Basin will result in the exhaustion sooner or later For the sustainable use of LMR Basin, feedback from economic process to environmental

production must be carried out and should be increased gradually with 0.32% per year from 0.32% in 2004 to 66% in 2210 and kept at 66% from 2210 to 2300 in order to maximize the total emergy storage of environmental stock and economic assets As the additional means, the ecological engineering approaches for such feedback including (1) sustainable use of ecosystems such as environmentally sound energy development, ecological agriculture, complex aquaculture, industrial ecology, and ecotourism; (2) artificial construction of ecosystems such as created wetland; (3) restoration of ecosystems such as reforestation; and (4) ecologically sound harvest such as capture of fish and exploitation of forest in natural balance could make LMR Basin move more effectively and more efficiently towards sustainable use

Lower Mekong River Basin의 지속가능한 이용을 위한

Emergy analysis와 Energy modeling

Dang Viet Hung

부경대학교 환경공학과 대학원

요약문

메콩강 하류유역을 대상으로 인류의 편익과 자연환경을 동시에 고려할 수 있는 에머지 분석과 에너지 모델링을 수행하고 그 결과를 바탕으로 메콩강 하류유역의 지속가능한 이용을 위한 방안을 제시하였다 에머지 분석 결과, 메콩강 하류유역 국가인 라오스, 캄보디아, 베트남, 태국은 각각 총 에머지 사용량의 96%, 64%, 81%, 70%을 자국 으로부터 조달하고 있었고, 이를 지속성 관점에서 검토한 결과 캄보디아와 라오스의 경우 매우 건전한 상태였으나 베트남과 태국의 경우 임계수준에 가까웠다 이들 국가의 가장 중요한 자연환경 자원은 강우의 화학적 에너지로서 1,429.23E+20 sej/yr로 나타났다 두 번째로 중요한 자연환경 자원은 강물의 화학적 에너지로서 362.68E+20 sej/yr

로 나타났다 주요경제활동은 농업생산이었으며 자연환경에 의한 인구수용능력은 메콩강 햐류유역 국가총인구의 38%에 해당하였다

최근 메콩강 하류유역국가들은 높은 성장율과 함께 새로운 발전단계로 접어들고 있다 메콩강 하류유역 국가들

에 대한 에너지 모델링 수행결과에 따르면, 현 단계의 발전양상은 자연자원의 고갈에 따른 생산력저하로 지속성이 저하되는 것으로 나타났다 따라서, 경제활동으로부터 얻은 이윤을 자연환경의 생산에 피드백 시켜야만 시스템의 지속가능성이 높아지는 것으로 나타났다 경제적자산과 환경자원의 에머지량을 최대화하여 지속성을 유지하기 위

한 환경정책으로서 2003년부터 2210까지는 0%에서 66%까지 시기별로 피드백을 증가시키고, 2210년부터 2300년 까지는 66%까지 피드백 시키는 구조로 개편되어야만 현재의 수준으로 실질적인 부가 지속되는 것으로 예측되었다 이러한 피드백은 생태공학적 방법을 적용함으로써 메콩강 하류유역의 지속 가능한 이용을 달성할 수 있다 이를

I Introduction

People in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMR Basin) depend heavily on the water flow from the Mekong River Approximately 80% population lives in rural areas Agriculture production, capture fisheries, aquaculture production, forest management, industry production, hydroelectric generation, and utilization of ecological resources for conservation and tourism are the main characteristics of the economy based on the abundant natural resources such as water, land, forest, wetland, and biodiversity LMR Basin is still very poor

In the last 15 years, the economies within the basin have begun to change Growth rates of Thailand were over 10% in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and those of Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam were about 5% in the 1990s (MRC, 2003)

Economic development is necessary and sustainable development is the common goal

of all countries in LMR Basin (LMR Countries) However, the current economic production together with the rapid population growth is causing a great pressure on the natural resources in the basin It results in the pollution of water sources, exhaustion of fertile soils, loss of forest areas, damage of natural wetlands, and reduction of biodiversity kinds A comprehensive solution for utilization of LMR Basin has not been extended The available condition of these resources is being affected severely If the present rate of exploitation of them continues and increases, they will be reduced in the not-too-distant future to the levels which recovery may be impossible (MRC, 2003)

Quantitative evaluation of the real wealth contributions of natural environment to human economy is necessary for making the exact development strategy Furthermore, an additional means for sustainable use of LMR Basin which supplies the benefits for the whole system is also required Recently, emergy concept (spelled with an “m”) which recognizes the available energy that has been already used up through many transformations from initial environmental production to later economic process is capable

of representing both the environmental and economic values with a common measure (Odum, 1996) Closely, energy modeling which is often used for selection of the best management and technology solutions for the problems related human with nature also

and energy modeling originate from the viewpoint of systems ecology

In the recent years, researches using emergy evaluation have been carried out increasingly, including national or regional emergy analyses of environmental, economic, and public policy (Choi, 2003; Higgins, 2003; Huang et al., 1995; Lee et al., 1994; Qin et al., 2000) as well as emergy evaluations for comparison of alternative utilizations of rivers such

as emergy evaluation perspectives of a multipurpose dam proposal in Korea (Kang et al., 2002) and emergy evaluation of diversions of river water to marshes in the Mississippi River Delta (Martin, 2002) They are very good references for emergy analysis about methods, transformities, and indices In LMR Basin, emergy analysis was used for evaluating benefits and costs of two proposed dams on the Mekong River in Thailand (Brown et al., 1996) An emergy analysis overview of Thailand in 1985 was also included The emergy use per capita was 2.98E+15 sej/capita/yr The emergy money ratio of 3.46E+12 sej/$ was near the world average, indicating the position of Thailand at the boundary between developing and developed countries The renewable carrying capacity was about 50% of population These emergy indices are very useful in comparison with emergy studies later to see the change of Thailand

Odum and his co-workers have been constructed many fundamental minimodels in many kinds of systems (Odum et al., 2000) Each minimodel contains verbal description, network diagram, change equation, simulation program in BASIC, and graphs of functions These mimimodels include mathematical relationships found in a lot of fields such as biochemistry, ecology, economy, geology, and population Based on these basic relationships, more complex systems are researched and developed By chance, ECONUSE, the model of economic use of renewable resources (Odum et al., 2000), is rather close to the situation of LMR Basin Simulation the future of Korea’ natural environment and economic development (Lee et al., 2001) provides a well-illustrated example about energy modeling for sustainable development Some scenarios with selling the native enterprise to abroad, increasing the price of purchased inputs, and increasing the export of produced outputs were performed Over 75% of total economic production was suggested to invest to natural resource management Transferring from the present industrial structure to the social-economic structure based on ecological-recycling is the policy for the sustainable development of Korea

Ecological engineering may be the choice for the sustainable use of LMR Basin Projects in this field operate at the interface between human and nature, and are created to provide societal and environmental benefits at the same time Ecological engineering has been applied significantly in the world, especially for the last decades Dafeng county at the southern part of Jiangsu province in China is a good case study In 1998, about 22 demonstration sites for ecological engineering were organized in the county by application

of ecological agriculture, ecological industry, ecosystem conservation, and community development GDP of the county in 1996 was eight times higher than that in 1986 before applying eco-technology, while the environmental quality was improved or maintained at the same level as that in 1980 when there were few industries (Wang et al., 1998) Some eco-technologies have been applied in LMR Basin but their application is still disconnected and unsystematic Eco-industrial parks in Thailand and eco-agricultural types as the combination of rice paddy or fruit garden, fish pond, and pigsty farm in Vietnam have been representative case studies Ecotourism is also being introduced and encouraged to apply

in all LMR Countries (Leksakundilok, 2004)

Although LMR Basin system has been evaluated nationally and qualitatively, little quantitative information is available about the whole system, particularly in regard to how changes in policy of environment and economic are affecting the system The purpose of this thesis is to supply the insight and give the way for sustainable use of LMR Basin In the first step, emergy analysis is performed to represent the important contribution of the environment to the society as well as the current status of LMR Basin In the second step, the additional means for sustainable use is determined by energy modeling Finally, based

on the results in the first and second steps, the thesis recommends the approaches that could be applied for the sustainable use of LMR Basin The methodology of the thesis is shown in Figure 1.1 Systems ecology is the background for emergy analysis and energy modeling It results in the sustainable use of LMR Basin which supplies benefits both to human society and natural environment

Fig 1.1 Methodology of Thesis

II Study Site and Research Methods

1 Study Site

1.1 Study area

The Mekong River is the dominant geo-hydrological structure in mainland Southeast

Asia It originates from China and flows through, or border, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand,

Cambodia, and Vietnam Compared with the other river systems globally, the Mekong ranks

8th in terms of discharge (15,000 m3 / sec), 12th in terms of length (4,800 km), and 21st in

terms of basin (795,000 km2) The Mekong River Basin comprises around 795,000 km2 and

stretches about 2,600 km across Southeast Asia from the Tibetan Plateau in China to the

South China Sea in Vietnam It is divided into two parts, the Upper (24% of the area) and

the Lower (76% of the area) The Lower Mekong River Basin (LMR Basin) is the part of

watershed area lying within Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam These countries are

the Lower Mekong River Countries (LMR Countries) All of them are the members of

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) The areas and the populations of

Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam are given in Table 2.1 Maps of these countries are

given in Figures 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4

Table 2.1 Areas and Populations of LMR Countries (Source: ASEAN, 2003)

Country Area

(km 2 )

Population in 2003 (million people) Cambodia 181,035 13.798

Thailand 513,254 63.950

Fig 2.1 Map of Cambodia

Source: ASEAN, 2003

Fig 2.2 Map of Laos

Source: ASEAN, 2003

Fig 2.3 Map of Thailand

Source: ASEAN, 2003

Fig 2.4 Map of Vietnam

Source: ASEAN, 2003

Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam signed the Agreement on Cooperation for Sustainable Development of Lower Mekong River Basin and Mekong River Commission (MRC) was born in 1995 LMR Basin has an area of approximately 606,000 km2 (Figure 2.5) The population is about 57.160 million people It comprises almost all Laos and Cambodia, more than one-third of Thailand (its Northeastern Region and part of Northern Region), and one-fifth of Vietnam (the Central Highlands and Mekong Delta) (Table 2.2) The Mekong Delta is the most downstream part of LMR Basin Most of the Mekong Delta lies in the southern part of Vietnam The flow of the Mekong and its tributaries is closely related to the rainfall pattern affected by monsoon Each year about 475,000 million m3 of water runs into the South China Sea off the Mekong Delta

Table 2.2 Parts of area and population of LMR Countries in LMR Basin (Source: MRC, 2003)

Country Area in LMR Basin

(km2)

Part of national area (%)

Population in LMR Basin (million people)

Part of national population (%)

Fig 2.5 Location of LMR Basin

Source: MRC, 2003

1.2 Current situation

1.2.1 Social situation

The basin is the home to more than 70 ethnic groups Over 55 million people live in LMR Basin The population is growing fast with annual growth rate of over 1.5% Labor force is very young and abundant but LMR Basin has been faced by serious problems of human resource although manpower is extremely important for the development of the basin Unemployment in rural areas and lack of skilled labor forces are still the big problems In addition, education and health conditions are inadequate, particularly for children and women in less developed areas of the basin By the standards of the UNDP’s Human Development Index, Thailand and Vietnam are middle-income countries, while Cambodia and Laos are low-income countries The people of LMR Basin remained, in terms of per capita income, among the poorest in the world Nearly 40% of the populations

of Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam live below the poverty line In Northeast Thailand, 19% of the population is poor (MRC, 2003)

1.2.2 Economic situation

Agriculture is the single most important economic activity in LMR Basin In order to overcome poverty in rural areas, commercial agriculture is being promoted In 1998, the ratio of the irrigated land to total cultivated area was only 7-10%, much lower than 45% ratio for Asia as a whole Now, irrigation is increasing not only to enable a second and even

a third rice crop but also to expand wet season production Rice production has increased greatly in the last years: in Cambodia, by 23% between 1993 and 2000; in Laos, by 38% between 1990 and 1999; in the Northeast Region of Thailand, by 33% between 1994 and 2001; and in the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands of Vietnam, by 27% between 1995 and 1999 Rice cropping areas in LMR Basin were about 11.7 million ha in 1999-2000 In

2000, the average yield for LMR Basin was 2.7 tonnes/ha, compared with 3.9 tonnes/ha for the Asia-Pacific Region (Table 2.3) Utilization of fertilizers and pesticides is likely to expand as agriculture becomes more commercial (MRC, 2003)

Table 2.3 Rice yield of LMR Basin in 2000 (Source: MRC, 2003)

(tonnes/ha)

Dry Season (tonnes/ha)

3rd Season (tonnes/ha)

Average (tonnes/ha)

Laos Upland

Lowland

1.5 3.1

- 4.1

-

-

1.5 2.9

Mekong Delta

3.0 2.6

4.6 5.0

- 3.7

3.1 4.1

Most of the 12 million rural households in LMR Basin fish as well as farm Fish is the

main source of animal protein in the diets of the people living in the basin The annual catch

is an estimated 1,500,000 tonnes, with another 500,000 tonnes from aquaculture and

reservoirs (Table 2.4) The largest amounts of fish are cultured in the Mekong Delta of

Vietnam and the Northeast Region of Thailand Growth in aquaculture production has been

steady over the past 10 years, from 60,000 tonnes in 1990 to 260,000 tonnes in 2001

(MRC, 2003) Especially, shrimp and catfish culture have been the important income and

foreign currency in the Mekong Delta The rapid expansion of shrimp and catfish intensive

farming systems is resulting in the widespread loss of mangrove forests existing along the

coast The Mekong Basin’s aquatic ecosystem is still in good condition, but there are a

number of possible threats to the wild fisheries such as water resource utilization, habitat

loss, fishing pressure, wetland deterioration, and pollution of water body

Table 2.4 Fisheries production of LMR Basin in 2001 (Source: MRC, 2002)

Fish and Aquatic Products Quantity (tonnes) Price (US$ per kg) Value (US$ millions)

Of the total potential of 30,000 MW for feasible hydropower projects in LMR Basin, approximately 13,000 MW is on the mainstream The remaining is on the tributaries with 13,000 MW in Laos; 2,200 MW in Cambodia; and 2,000 MW in Vietnam Only 1,600 MW or 5% of this potential has been developed, and all of the projects are on the tributaries (Figure 2.6) It is estimated that the electric power demand of all LMR Countries will increase by an average of about 7% annually to 2020 In order to meet such fast growth in demand, current electric power generating capacity is expected to be four times of increase

by then (MRC, 2003) Laos and Cambodia have high potentials in hydropower, but these countries do not have domestic markets large enough to warrant developing large-scale projects Most of the electric power generation projects planned in Thailand and Vietnam, the countries with greater need for electricity and smaller potential in hydropower, will be operated either by coal or natural gas

The economy of LMR Basin has reached higher growth rates, often over 5% in the recent years The economic structure has changed considerably The gross output of agriculture as a percentage of GDP went down Meanwhile gross output of other sectors as industry, construction, and service has increased rapidly Because the populations are not populous and the infrastructures are limited, the economies of Cambodia and Laos often cannot compete with cheaper goods produced from the neighbor countries Cambodia and Laos are industrializing slowly with garment production and textile industry grown primarily and quickly to become the leading fields of earning foreign currency Thailand and Vietnam have much denser populations and better infrastructures, so they can manufacture products on large-scales, both to meet domestic demand and for export With regards to future economic development, Thailand and Vietnam are likely to continue to industrialize more and more (MRC, 2003)

Fig 2.6 Completed hydropower projects in the Mekong Basin Source: MRC, 2001

1.2.3 Environmental situation

1.2.3.1 Water resource use

Availability of water source varies widely by region and by season, due to the monsoon rainfall In the dry season from December to March, water flows into the Mekong Delta can

be as low as 2,000 m3 / s In the rainy season from July to November, water flows can be 25,000 m3 / s Hydropower may be the good energy supply for high electricity consumption

in the future (Figure 2.7) However, nearly all hydropower projects have both negative and positive effects on environment and society Changes in volume, timing, and duration of water flows caused by dams and weirs built for hydropower, irrigation, and flood control could contribute to negative impacts for aquatic habitats and fish stocks, wetland deterioration, biodiversity reduction, seawater intrusion, and agrochemical pollution

Fig 2.7 Forecast of regional electric power demand (MW)

Source: MRC, 2001

1.2.3.2 Pollution of water bodies

The water quality in the Mekong River is generally good (MRC, 2003) However, the water quality of the Mekong River in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam is being contaminated The problems in the next years may be salinity and nutrient pollution Reduced dry season water flows by proposed water diversions and hydropower dam projects upstream could lead to seawater intrusion farther up to the Mekong Delta The trend of increased utilization

of external inputs in agriculture and aquaculture production will be a concern about point source pollution It comes from overuse of many different kinds of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium fertilizers together with insecticides, fungicides, herbicides as well

non-as discharge of nutrient rich effluents untreated from intensive farming systems

1.2.3.3 Deforestation

LMR Basin has a large forest area with 22.2 million ha but fuel-wood is also the main energy source for most of households in rural areas In 1995, an estimated 95% of Cambodia’s energy requirements for cooking were met with fuel-wood An estimated of 92% was in Laos Proportions were similar in Thailand and Vietnam The forests of LMR Basin have decreased significantly in terms of both area and quality over the last decades Based on a study of Mekong River Commission (MRC) about forest losses between 1993 and 1997, LMR Basin lost about 500,000 ha in only four years or over 2% of forest cover The average was 0.53% per year (Table 2.5 and Figure 2.8) Deforestation causes land slide, soil erosion, flood downstream, and other serious environmental effects

Table 2.5 Forest cover in LMR Basin in 1993 and 1997

1.2.3.4 Depletion of natural resources

Generally the current status of the physical environment in LMR Basin ranges from good to very good but rapid population growth, undeveloped human power, low income per capita, and economic structure based on conventional engineering are causing a great pressure on natural resources such as water, land, forest, wetland and biodiversity They result in pollution of water sources, exhaustion of fertile soils, loss of forest areas, damage

of natural wetlands, and reduction of biodiversity kinds Many years ago, it was often said that Mekong Delta in particular and LMR Basin in general were very rich in environmental resources In recent years, these things have been not true

1.3 Recent plans of development and environment in LMR Basin

With Thailand being the world’s largest rice exporting country and Vietnam the second largest, LMR Basin would remain the rice bowl of Asia and the world The governments of all LMR Countries are promoting commercial agriculture and rural industry in order to create more works and incomes for the fast-growing and poor rural population Prospects for future growth are growing more cash crops; developing rural industries such as aquaculture, livestock, and agro-processing; improving production of consumer goods; and expanding tourism (MRC, 2003) These would be associated with increased water and energy consumption; increased regional trade and transport; increased industrialization and urbanization; and increased pollutant emission Increased pressure on the use of LMR Basin by the riparian countries results in the abundant natural resources in the basin exploited more and more from year to year Potentials as well as risks of using LMR Basin are significant The present situation of the basin is threatened to change severely

Sustainable development is the common goal of all LMR Countries These countries have realized that the sustainability of natural environment must be reached simultaneously with the development of national economy and society In 1995, all four LMR Countries founded Mekong River Commission (MRC) and established a set of institutional mechanisms for the sustainable development of the river MRC’s Vision for the Mekong

River Basin MRC Programs are Basin Development Plan; Water Utilization Program; Environment Program; Flood Management and Mitigation Program; Integrated Capacity-Building Program; Agriculture, Irrigation, and Forestry Program; Fisheries Program; Navigation Program; and Hydropower Program Goals of these programs are sustainable agriculture, fisheries development, safe navigation, and flood management (MRC, 2003) However, comprehensive solutions for utilization of LMR Basin towards sustainable development have not been taken into consideration to date

Cooperation in the Mekong Basin has been required, especially in the places where available condition of environmental resource is not enough for economic demand The main cooperation in the Mekong Basin is the cooperation between six national governments, among local level government organizations, and with international organizations such as Asian Development Bank (ADB), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Mekong River Commission (MRC), and World Bank (WB) Achieving the collaboration will not be easy because the Mekong Basin is a complex region politically, socially, and in terms of its environment Six countries in the basin have many different development goals and these are not always in accord with each other Some countries also have a history of conflict with each other (MRC, 2003) It is seen as not only an important opportunity for the development of the basin but also a serious challenge faced

by the countries with the significant differences in level of economic development

Fig 2.9 Emergy quality chain used to calculate solar transformity (Odum, 1988)

Many joules of solar energy create some joules of wood, a few joules of coal or few joules of electricity In the other word, many joules of low quality are needed for a few joules

of high quality Quality is evaluated through the sum of all inputs of energy used up to provide a product Actually, 1 joule of electricity has an ability to do work higher than that of

1 joule of coal, wood or solar energy It is not exact to use energy as a measurement of a system contribution

For this reason, emergy is defined as “the available energy of one kind of previously used up directly and indirectly to make a service or product Its unit is the emjoule” (Odum, 1996) Nearly all forms of energy are given in units of solar energy in need of creating the sum of all the inputs Thus solar emergy is used more often Its unit is the solar emjoule (abbreviated sej)

2.1.1.2 Transformity

Together with emergy for comparing all forms of energy, transformity is defined as the emergy input per unit of available energy output The Figure 2.9 shows that 20,000 solar emjoules are required to product 1 joule of wood; 40,000 solar emjoules for 1 joule of coal; and 160,000 solar emjoules for 1 joule of electricity It means the solar transformities of those wood, coal and electricity are 20,000; 40,000; and 160,000 solar emjoule per joule (sej/J), respectively By definition, the solar transformity of the sunlight is one (1.0)

All the energy transformations could be arranged in ordered series to form an energy hierarchy The hierarchy is that many units at lower level generate a few units at higher level, with the higher level feeding controls back to lower level units Transformity shows the position of an energy transformation in the energy hierarchy and increases gradually from left to right (Figure 2.10) Therefore, it can be considered as a comparison factor for different types of energy High transformity means high quality, and vice versa

There have been a lot of transformities for various kinds of energies, materials, and services such as emergy per energy ratios, emergy per mass ratios, and emergy to money ratios Many transformities have been determined by Odum and the other authors over the past years and used in emergy analyses When a needed transformity is not available, it is calculated through a subsystem analysis New transformities are based on emergy driving the biosphere reevaluated as 15.83 E+24 sej/yr

Fig 2.10 Concepts of energy transformation hierarchy and transformity, (a) All units view together; (b) Units separated by scale; (c) Units as a web of energy flows; (d) Processes shown as an ordered series; (e) Flows of energy per unit time; (f) Transformities (Brown et al., 2004)

2.1.1.3 Maximum power principle

Maximum power principle was suggested by Lotka in 1922 It is stated that “system designs which survive are organized so as to bring in energy as fast as possible, using it to feed back to bring in more energy” (Odum et al., 1988) Using the “empower” concept (emergy flow per unit time), this principle is restated as follow “Prevailing systems are those designs maximize empower by reinforcing resource intake at the optimum efficiency” (Odum, 1996) In ecosystems of natural environment, autocatalytic growth indicates a practice of maximum power principle (Figure 2.11) In economies of human societies, local resources are exploited and outside sources are supplemented through exports and imports in order to reach maximum power When the energy supplies are abundant as in last centuries, maximizing power together with maximizing economic development leads to using energy as much as possible When energy supplies are limited as from this century, maximizing power requires the processes using energy decrease in competition and increase in diversity and efficiency (Odum et al., 1988)

Fig 2.11 Autocatalytic production process (Odum, 2000)

2.1.2 Energy systems diagram

Emergy analysis begins with the construction of an energy systems diagram The boundary of the system is the border of the area studied The energy systems diagram represents main components and economic sectors; all driving energies and interactions; and the circulations of money through the system The energy systems diagram is drawn

by using the symbols of the energy language of systems ecology (Odum, 1983) The transformities increase gradually from left to right in the diagram (Figure 2.12)

Every system is part of the larger system above and composed of the smaller systems below One scale can not be evaluated comprehensively without studying its relation to those above and below In this study, LMR Basin is the part of watershed area lying within Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam so emergy analysis includes two scales of evaluating First, the emergy analyses of LMR Countries were determined And second, the emergy analysis of LMR Basin was evaluated

Fig 2.12 Order arranged from the left side with low transformities to the right side with high transformities (Odum, 1983)

2.1.3 Emergy analysis table

The emergy analysis table is then constructed directly from the energy systems

diagram (Odum, 1996) The emergy analysis table is usually presented as follow:

All of inputs and outputs are listed in this table The amount of each item as a flow of

energy, material or money is first quantified per year and in raw units (joules, grams,

dollars) In this thesis, raw data for these items were received from the statistical references

and published literatures about LMR Countries and LMR Basin around the year 2003 (Table

2.6) Multiplying these raw units by their respective transformities calculates their emergy

To avoid double counting, the environmental inputs from the same source are not added to

calculate the total input of renewable resources The largest input is chosen on behalf of

these inputs

Emergy in the fifth column of the emergy analysis table is translated to emdollars

(abbreviated em$) by dividing emergy flow by average emergy money ratio for an economy

for that year (Odum, 1996) The emergy money ratios (transformities for dollars) in this

study were based on the ratios of the total emergy used in the country or the basin and its

gross national product (GNP) or gross regional product (GRP) in 2003, respectively

Emdollars are a convenient way to connect emergy to more familiar monetary units for

peopled systems where money is used to exchange good and services Using emdollars

allows contributions of nature to be expressed in terms of currency, enabling comparison

between environmental and economic processes in monetary units

The emergy analysis table can be summarized in Figure 2.13 The diagram in Figure

2.13 aggregates the emergy inputs into renewable resources (R), nonrenewable sources

derived from within the country (N), imported fuels (F), and goods & services (P2I) It then

aggregates all export flows from the country economy into one flow (P1E) P2I is defined as

the emergy money ratio of the nation having the highest monetary export value to the country under study (P2) multiplied by total imports in monetary units (I) P1E is defined as the emergy money ratio of the country under study (P1) multiplied by total exports in monetary units (E)

Fig 2.13 Summary diagram of emergy flows

Table 2.6 Statistical References

Asian Development Bank (ADB) -

Statistics

agricultural and industrial production, imports, exports

http://www.adb.org/Statistic s/default.asp

Association of Southeast Asian

Nations (ASEAN) – Statistics

area, population, elevation, tourist http://www.aseansec.org/1

3100.htm

Energy Information Administration

(EIA) – Country Analysis Briefs

Homepage

production, consumption, imports and exports of fuels

http://www.eia.doe.gov/em eu/cabs/contents.html

Food and Agriculture Organization of

The United Nations (FAO) –

National Statistical Office of Thailand overview of country http://www.nso.go.th/index

World Bank Group (WB) – Data and

Statistics

ata/

World Resources Institute (WRI) –

Earth Trends: The Environmental