Nhff vay, ke't qua nghien cffu chffa tha'y dffdc sff tac ddng cua cac ye'u to tin dung NHCSXH de'n thu nhap ciia hg ngheo tren dia ban huyen Hda Binh, ma chi tha'y dffdc thu nhap eii[r]
Trang 1Nghien culi
cac yeu to tin dung chmh sach
tac dong den thu nhap cua ho ngheo
huyen Hoa Binh, tmh Bac Lieu
BCII VAN TR|NH' LAJVI THI TOYET TRAM"
Tom tat
Nghien cdu tap trung phdn tich cdc yeu tdtin dung tgi Ngdn hdng Chinh sdch Xd hoi (NHCSXH)
tdc dong den thu nhap cua ho ngheo tren dia bdn huyen Hda Binh, tinh Bgc Lieu theo phuang
phdp phdn tich hdm hoi quy da Men Ket qud phdn tich cho thdy, thu nhap cua ho ngheo chiu
tdc ddng cua 3 yeu tdld: Sdnhdn khdu cua ho; Ty le phu thuoc cua ho; vd Dien tich ddt canh
tdc Md hinh nghien cdu chua thdy duac tdc ddng cua cdc yeu tdtin dung NHCSXH, nhUng no
cd y nghia khi nhin thdy duac cdc yeu tdkhdc tdc ddng den thu nhap cua ho ngheo tren dia ban
huyen Hda Binh Tddd, cd nhUng ddnh gid, phdn tich vd dexudt ham y chinh sdch cdi thien tin
dung cua NHCSXH gdp phdn tdng hieu qud sd dung vdn vay nhdm cdi thien thu nhap cua ho
ngheo tren dia bdn huyen Hda Binh
Tuf khoa: tin dung, thu nhap, ho ngheo, gidm ngheo
Summary
The study carefully analyses the impact of credit factors of Vietnam Bank for Social Policies on
the income of poor households in Hoa Binh district, Bac Lieu province by using multivariable
regression analysis method The analysis results show that the income of poor households is
affected by three factors: Number of household members Depending ratio of households and
Area of cultivated land The research model has not clarified the impact of credit factors of
the Bank but it is still significant to show the impact of other factors on the income of poor
households in Hoa Binh district From this perspective, assesments, analyses and proposals of
policy implications for credit improvement ofthe Bank are provided to increase the effeciency
of loan utilization and the income of poor households in Hoa Binh district
Keywords: credit, income, poor households, poverty reduction M
GI61 THIEU chffa tac ddng tieh cffc vao qua trinh tao
ra thu nhap cua hd ngheo De giai quyet Cung nhff nhffng dia phffdng khac d Dong bang dffdc va'n de nay, can cd nhffng nghien
sdng Cffu Long, da sd bd phan dan cff sd'ng d huyen cffu ve tin dung NHCSXH tae ddng den
Hda Binh, tinh Bac Lieu sd'ng nhd vao ndng nghiep thu nhap eua hd ngheo
Nhieu ngffdi dan tai day cd thu nhap tha'p va khdng
Dffdc sff ehi dao ciia Chinh phu, NHCSXH huyen
Hda Binh dffdc thanh lap vdi mue dich cung cap vd'n Tin dung dd'i vdi ngffdi ngheo la
eho hd ngheo va cac dd'i tffdng ye'u the de hg vffdn len nhffng khoan tin dung chi danh rieng cho
cai thien cude sd'ng Tuy nhien, viec hd ngheo dffdc nhffng hg ngheo cd sffc lao dgng, nhifng
tiep can vd'n vay ffu dai eon nhieu bat cap, nhff: Iffdng thie'u vd'n de phat trie'n san xuat trong
vd'n vay khdng du nhu cau cua hg, sff dung vd'n sai mdt thdi gian nha't dinh de hoan tra lai
mue dich din de'n chffa phat huy hieu qua vd'n vay, va gdc vdi mue tieu la de cai thien thu
* PGS, TS., Trufdng Dai hoc Can Thd
" Trifdng Dai hoc Tra Vinh I Email: tuyettram29@gmail.com
Ngdy nhan bdi: 30/09/2018; Ngdy phdn bien: 10/10/2018; Ngdy duyet ddng: 23/10/2018
42
^'' Kinli tevaDiJM'
Trang 2Kinhte
vaDirbSiO
nhap cho hd ngheo Tie'p can tin dung la
dieu kien quan trgng de hd ngheo dau
tff phat trien san xua't, kinh doanh nham
nang cao thu nhap (Khandker, 2009 va
Nguyen Trgng Hoai, 2005)
Cdn theo Trffdng Ddng Ldc va Dang
Thi Thao Trieu (2011), thi phu nff quan ly
va sff dung vd'n vay td't hdn nam gidi Ben
canh dd, trinh do hge van eua ehu hg eao
thi kha nang tao thu nhap eho ban than va
ddng gdp vao thu nhap cua gia dinh cang
ldn Nhffng hg gia dinh cd nhieu ngffdi
cd trinh do cao ed kha nang ed thu nhap
eao hdn nhffng hg khac, do hg cd the tie'p
can dffdc nhffng edng viee dffdc tra Iffdng
eao hdn (NguySn Trgng Hoai, 2005) Cae
nghien effu tren cho tha'y, thu nhap cua hd
ngheo chiu anh hffdng bdi nhieu ye'u to,
nhff: tin dung, da't dai, quy md hd, ty le
phu thudc, gidi tinh, trinh do hgc van
PHU'ONG PHAP NGHIEN CCU
Sd' lieu sd cap sff dung trong nghien
cffu nay dffdc thu thap bang each phdng
van trffc tie'p hg ngheo qua phffdng
phap ehgn mau thuan tien tren dia ban
huyen Hda Binh, vdi cac ndi dung nhff
Quye't dinh sd 59/2015/QD'-TTg, ngay
19/09/2015 cua Thii tffdng Chinh phu ve
viee ban hanh chuan ngheo tie'p can da
chieu ap dung giai doan 2016-2020 Cd
mau dffdc xae dinh la 138 So quan sat
dffdc phan bd 4 xa dffdc dai dien cho chgn
nghien cffu la: Minh Dieu, VTnh Thinh,
VTnh Hau va thi tran Hda Binh de' thu
thap thdng tin, bdi day la 4/8 xa, thi tran
cd ty le hd ngheo eao nha't trong Huyen
Thdi gian khao sat: thang 04/2018 So
phie'u thu ve va hdp le la 138 (Bdi viet sd
dung cdch viet sd thdp phdn theo chudn
qudc te)
Nghien effu sff dung phffdng phap hdi
quy da bie'n vdi bie'n phu thugc trong
md hinh la phan thu nhap eiia hd ngheo,
dffdc giai thich nhff sau:
Md hinh hdi quy cd dang:
Y=a + b^Xj + b^X^ + b^X^ + b^X^ +
b^X^ + b^X^ + b^X^ + b,X^ + b^X^ + b^^
X,^+b^,X,, + u
Trong dd:
Y: bie'n phu thugc, la thu nhap ciia hd
ngheo (trieu ddng/nam);
Xj , Xjj la cae bie'n dgc lap (bie'n giai
thieh)(Bang 1);
b,, , bjj la cac tham sd'hdi quy;
u: Anh hffdng cua ye'u to khac chffa
dffa vao md hinh
BANG 1: MO TA cAC GlA TRI COA CAC BIEN DOC LAP Big'n
X,
X,
X,
x
Xs
X,
X
X
Xo
X|n
x„
Tdn bien
Ho ngheo vay von NHCSXH Lirdng von vay tif NHCSXH (trieu dong)
Ho ngheo vay von td chiJc tin dung Ichac
Lifdng vdn vay tif td chufc tin dung Ichac (trieu dong)
Ho ngheo vufa vay NHCSXH viifa vay td chiJc tin dung Ichac
So' nhan khau cua ho (ngUdi)
Ty le phu thuoc cua ho (%) Trinh do hoc van cua chu ho
Gidi tinh cua chu ho (L nil, 0: Nam) Tudi cua chu hp (sd nam)
Dien tich dat canh tac binh quan dau ngifcii (l,OOOm-/ngirdi)
K y h i ^ u TDNHCSXH VAYNHCSXH TDKHAC VAYTDKHAC KETHOP QUIMO TLPT HOCVAN GIOITINH TUOI DTICH
Ky vong (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (-) (-) (+) (+) (+) (+)
Nguon: Tdng h6p cua nhom tac gia, 2018
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU
Danh gia tac dong cua cac yeii td'anh hufdng de'n thu nhap cua ho ngheo
Tinh hinh sdt dung tin dung
Theo ke't qua khao sat, thi da so hd ngheo deu tham gia vay vd'n Cu the, cd tdi 106 phie'u va chie'm ty trgng 76.81% trong tdng so 138 quan sat, so hd ngheo edn lai khdng vay vd'n bat ky ngan hang hay to chffc tin dung nao
So hd ngheo khdng tie'p can vd'n vay la do nhieu nguyen nhan, nhff: khdng cd nhu cau vi di lam thue cho chu, cd nhu cau, nhffng chffa dffdc tie'p can, hd khdng
ed ngffdi trong do tudi lao ddng
Cdc yeu tdlien quan den nguon lUc eua ho ngheo
Dien tich ddt canh tdc: Ke't qua khao sat eho tha'y,
dien tich da't canh tac binh quan dau ngffdi trung binh
la 0.16 edng (1 cdng = 1,000m-), cao nha't la 2 cdng, tha'p nha't la khdng ed da't canh tac va do lech chuan la 0.405 Ciing theo khao sat, thi sd'hd cd da't canh tac rat
it, ehi chie'm ty trgng 14.5% vdi 20 hd; ed de'n 118 hd khdng ed da't canh tac, chie'm ty trgng len de'n 85.5%
Dieu nay cho tha'y, da so' la hd ngheo khdng cd da't san xua't Trong khi dd, d ndng thdn, lao ddng tao ra thu nhap chu ye'u la tff ndng nghiep
Trinh do hoc vdn cua chu ho: Cae chii hd tham gia
trong mau khao sat cd trinh do eao nha't la trung cap hoac cao dang nghe, tuy nhien nhffng hd nay lai chie'm
ty trgng rat tha'p, tffdng dffdng 0.7% trong tdng sd' cac
hd khao sat vdi 1 hd Cd 20 chii hd khdng bie't chff chie'm 14.5%, nen cd the nhffng ngffdi nay gap nhieu khd khan trong viec tie'p can tin dung, anh hffdng de'n kha nang tao ra thu nhap ciia hd
Thu nhap cua ho ngheo: Theo khao sat, thu nhap
binh quan ciia mdi hd ngheo la 36-39 trieu ddng, cao nha't la 172 trieu ddng va tha'p nha't la 4 trieu ddng Day
la nhffng hd ddn than khdng cd kha nang lao ddng tao
ra thu nhap, ma thu nhap ed dffdc la tff trd cap xa hdi hoac cd ddn vi tff thien hd trd
Sd nhdn khdu cua ho: Theo ke't qua khao sat, thi
trung binh mdi hd cd 4.43 ngffdi, eao nha't la 14 ngffdi, tha'p nha't la 1 ngffdi va do lech ehuan la 1.867
Economy and Forecast Review 43
Trang 3BANG 2: KET QUA MO HINH HOI QGY HO NGHEO
CHI sdf DONG VON VAY NHCSXH Model
1
R
.732"
R Square Adiusted R Square
.536 507
Std Erro of the Estimate
17.720
a Predictors: (Constant), LVVNHCSXH, TUOI, DTICH,TLPT (%), QUIMO,
GIOITINH, TDNHCSXH, HOCVAN
Ngudn: Ket qua phan tich so lieu ichao sat nam 2018 tOf SPSS
Ty le phu thudc cua ho: Ty le phu thudc mdi hd
trung binh la' 35.5343%, cao nha't la 100%, nghia la
hd khdng ed ngffdi lao ddng tao ra thu nhap, tha'p nha't
la 0% nghia la ta't ca thanh vien trong hd deu cd tham
gia lao ddng tao ra thu nhap, do lech chuan 22.14079
Ngoai ra, theo ke't qua phan tich, tan sd'xua't hien d quy
md hd nhieu nha't la 4 ngffdi va d hd cd ty le phu thudc
nhieu nha't la 50%
- Gidi tinh chu ho: Theo ke't qua khao sat ed ca'u mau
theo gidi tinh cho tha'y, da so ehu hd deu la nam gidi, cd
de'n 89 chii hd la nam chie'm 64.5% va 49 ehii hd la nff
chie'm 35.5% Dieu nay cho tha'y, ehii hd la nam d dia
ban huyen Hda Binh cdn cao hdn nff, bdi vi phan ldn cae
hd ngheo nay la d ndng thdn, thi nam gidi ludn la tru cdt,
eung nhff quye't dinh mgi cdng viec trong gia dinh
Tudi chu ho: Xet ed ca'u mau theo do tudi cua chii
hd cho tha'y, do tudi ciia chu hd cao nha't la 106 tudi,
tha'p nha't la 27 tudi va trung binh la 53.11 tudi Dieu
nay cho tha'y, tudi cua chu hd d khu vffc ndng thdn ndi
ehung va tai dia ban nghien cffu ndi rieng la kha cao
va phan ldn la cac gia dinh sd'ng chung nhieu the'he
Tac dong cua cac yS'u to' tin dung chinh sach dS'n
thu nhap cua hd ngheo huyen Hoa Binh
Md hinh nghien effff bao gdm eac bie'n: So nhan
khau ciia hd; Ty le phu thudc cua hd; Hgc van cua
chii hd; Gidi tinh cua ehii hd; Do tudi ehu hd; Dien
tieh dat canh tac; Tin dung NHCSXH; Lffdng vd'n vay
NHCSXH Ke't qua phan tieh hdi quy thu dffdc nhff
Bang 2
Ke't qua phan tieh hdi quy tai Bang 2 eho tha'y, bie'n
So nhan khau ciia hd; Ty le phu thudc cua hd; va Dien
tich da't canh tac cd y nghia thd'ng ke, tuy nhien 2 bie'n
la: Ty le phu thudc ciia hd va Dien tich da't canh tac
phil hdp vdi ky vgng da'u Cae bie'n ddc lap edn lai la:
Hgc van ciia hd; Gidi tinh eua ehu hd; Do tudi chu hd;
Tin dung NHCSXH; Lffdng vd'n vay NHCSXH khdng
CO y nghia thd'ng ke, nghia la eac bie'n nay khdng ed
bang chffng thife nghiem chffng minh ed tae ddng de'n
thu nhap ciia hd ngheo R^ = 0.536 nghia la cac bie'n
dgc lap cd the' giai thich dffdc 53.6% sff thay ddi eua
thu nhap ciia hd ngheo vdi mffe y nghia 5% (8 bie'n dgc
lap dffa vao anh hffdng 53.6% sff thay dd'i cua bie'n phu
thudc, cdn lai 46.4% la do cae bie'n ngoai md hinh vi
sai sd'ngau nhien)
Phffdng trinh hdi quy thu nhap hd ngheo dffdc vie't
nhff sau:
Y = 3.730 + 0.541 QUIMO - 0.153 TLPT +
0.041 HOCVAN + 0.094 GIOITINH - 0.081 TUOI
+ 0.472 DIENTICH - 0.085 TDNHCSXH + 0.090
LVVNHCSXH
Difa vao ke't qua d phffdng trinh hoi quy, vdi dieu kien cae ye'u td'khac khong dd'i, ehi tie't ve md'i quan he giffa nhtfng bie'n dgc lap nay vdi bie'n phu thudc difcJc giai thich, nhff sau:
- Bien Sdnhdn khdu trong ho (QUIMO);
Nghien effu cho tha'y, bien nay co tac ddng eung chieu vdi bie'n phu thudc, Idiac vdi ky vgng ban dau Vdi he sdffdc lifcJng
la 0.514 mang y nghia giai thich la khi cac yeu to khae khdng ddi ne'u nhff ho them
1 ngffdi, thi thu nhap cua hd tang them 0.514 trieu ddng/nam Viee tang them so ngffdi giup cho hd cd them lao dgng gop phan lam tang thu nhap cho hd ngheo tren dia ban huyen Hda Binh
Bien Ty le phu thuoc cua ho (TLPT):
Theo phan tieh, bie'n nay cd tac dong ngffdc chieu vdi bie'n phu thudc, diing vdi
ky vgng ban dau Vdi he so ffdc Iffdng
la -0.153 mang y nghia giai thich la khi cac ye'u td' khae khdng ddi, ne'u nhff hp co them 1 % ty le phu thudc, thi thu nhap cua
hd giam di 0.153 trieu ddng/nam Viec ho tang them ty le phu thudc se lam giam thu nhap cua hd ngheo tai huyen Hda Binh
Bien Hgc vdn cua chu ho (HOCVAN): Theo phan tich, bie'n nayco
tae ddng eung chieu vdi bie'n phu thuoc, dung vdi ky vgng va cac nghien ciJu trffdc day Vdi he sd ffdc Iffdng la 0.041 mang y nghia giai thich la hge van chu
hd tang them 1 bac hge, thi thu nhap cua
hd tang them 0.041 trieu ddng/nam
Bien Gidi tinh cua chu hg (GIOITINH): Theo ke't qua phan tich,
bie'n nay ed tae ddng eung chieu vdi bie'n phu thugc, dung vdi ky vong va eac nghien cffu trffdc day Cd he sdifdc Iffdng dffdng eho tha'y, vdi gia sff cac dieu kien khac khdng ddi, thi nhffng chii hp la nff thi thu nhap cua hg ngheo hdn so vdi nhffng hd ngheo cd ehu hd la nam
Bien Tudi cua chu hd (TUOI): Theo
phan tich, bie'n nay cd tae ddng ngif* chieu vdi bien phu thugc, khac vdi ky vpng ban dau Vdi he sdffdc Iffdng -0.081 mang
y nghia giai thieh la ne'u tudi ehu ho tang them 1 mdi, thi thu nhap eua hg se giamdi 0.081 trieu ddng/nam Nhffng, theo ket qua tff nghien effu nay, bie'n Tudi cua chu ho khdng ed y nghia ve mat thd'ng ke, nghia
la khdng cd bang chffng thffc nghiem de chffng minh bie'n nay ed tae dgng de'n thu nhap cua hd ngheo tai huyen Hda Binh
Bien Dien tich ddt canh tdc (DTlCH]
Nghien cffu nay cho tha'y, bien ed y ngWa
giai thieh trong md hinh d mffe y nghia
5'^t-44
Kinii te vaDiJtii'
Trang 4He sdffdc Iffdng la 0.472, thi da'u eua bie'n
nay cung da'u vdi bie'n phu thudc, dung vdi
ky vgng ban dau; mang y nghia giai thich
la khi eac yeu td'khac khdng ddi, ne'u dien
tieh da't canh tac cua hd ngheo tang them
1000 m^, thi thu nhap cua hd se tang them
0.472 trieu ddng/nam Dieu nay cho tha'y,
sff tang len ve dien tieh da't canh tae giiip
hd ngheo ed the tao ra thu nhap nhieu hdn
Bien Ho ngheo vay vdn NHCSXH
(TDNHCSXH): Theo ke't cjua phan tieh,
bie'n nay ngffdc chieu vdi bie'n phu thugc,
khae vdi ky vgng ban dau Theo ket qua
tff nghien cffu nay, bie'n TDNHCSXH
khdng cd y nghia ve mat thd'ng ke, nghia
la khdng cd bang chffng thffc nghiem de
chffng minh bie'n nay cd tac dgng de'n thu
nhap cua hg ngheo tai huyen Hda Binh
Bien Luang vdn vay td NHCSXH
(VAYNHCSXH): Theo ke't qua tff nghien
effu nay, bie'n Lffdng vd'n vay tff NHCSXH
khdng ed y nghia ve mat thd'ng ke, nghia
la khdng ed bang chffng thffe nghiem de
chffng minh bie'n nay cd tae ddng de'n thu
nhap eua hd ngheo tai huyen Hda Binh
Nhff vay, ke't qua nghien cffu chffa
tha'y dffdc sff tac ddng cua cac ye'u to
tin dung NHCSXH de'n thu nhap ciia
hg ngheo tren dia ban huyen Hda Binh,
ma chi tha'y dffdc thu nhap eiia hd ngheo
chiu tac ddng cua 3 ye'u to la: So nhan
khau cua hd; Ty le phu thudc cua hd; va
Dien tich da't canh tae
MOT SO HAM Y CHINH SACH
Xua't phat tff ke't qua phan tich, tac gia
de xua't ham y chinh sach tin dung gdp
phan nang cao thu nhap eua hd ngheo
huyen Hda Binh, nhff sau:
Dot vdi sut dung tin dung chinh sdch cua ho ngheo
He thd'ng ngan hang eung nhff eac td chffc phi ngan hang khac can tao nhieu dieu kien hdn nffa cho hd ngheo tie'p can vay vd'n de cai thien thu nhap, can cd nhieu chffdng trinh tin dung ffu dai de hd trd hd ngheo Cung cap tin dung eho hg ngheo can gan vdi chffdng trinh hffdng din dau tff san xua't de' hd ngheo bie't dau tff vao dau va dau tff nhff the' nao de' sinh ldi
Do'i vdi nguon life cua hg ngheo
Can ed ke hoach nang cao trinh do hge van cho toan ngffdi dan tren dia ban bang viec phd cap giao due, xda dan tinh trang mu chff
Ddng thdi, can quan tam thffc hien td't ehinh sach dao tao nghe, ffu tien dao tao nhffng nghe phu hdp vdi dieu kien cua hd va tinh hinh thffc te' cua dia phffdng Ben canh dd, can gan dao tao nghe vdi viee hffdng din each lam an va ehuyen giao ky thuat, cdng nghe vao san xua't, tao dieu kien de ngffdi ndng dan ngheo phat trien kinh te' tren manh da't cua hd gia dinh nham nang eao thu nhap vffdn len thoat ngheo ben vffng
Do'i vdi sdnhdn khdu eua ho ngheo
Tie'p tuc thffe hien ed hieu qua ehinh sach dan so va ke' hoach hda gia dinh; lam td't edng tae tuyen truyen, nang eao nhan thffc cua ngffdi dan trong viec sinh de ed
ke hoach; chu trgng nang eao chat Iffdng dan so; khuye'n khich phu nff tham gia nhieu hdn vao hge nghe de tao thu nhap hdn la ehi lam cdng viec ndi trd tai gia dinh
Tin dung ehinh sdch til NHCSXH de'n thu nhap eua ho ngheo huyen Hoa Binh
NHCSXH can tang mffe vay cho san xua't, chan nudi, ddng thdi tie'n hanh cho hd vay ve mue dich budn ban de hd ngheo ed dieu kien tao ra thu nhap de' thoat ngheo Tinh toan ngudn vd'n eho phu hdp, dap ffng nhu cau vay ciia hd ngheo de' tranh tinh trang khi hd ed nhu cau lai thie'u vd'n de' cho vay, edn hd khdng cd nhu eau lai ed vd'n
Cae cap chinh quyen phd'i hdp vdi NHCSXH thffdng xuyen tie'n hanh kiem tra giam sat viee sff dung vd'n chat che hdn de tranh tinh trang sff dung vd'n sai muc dich.U
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1 UBND huyen Hda Binh (2017) Bdo cdo tinh hinh thuc Men nhiem vu phdt trien kinh te xd
hoi ndm 2017 vd de ra nhiem vu gidi phdp 2018
2 Ban Dai dien Hdi ddng quan tri NHCSXH huyen Hda Binh (2017) Bdo cdo ket qud hogt ddng
ndm 2017 vd phuang hudng nhiem vu ndm 2018
3 NguySn Trgng Hoai (2005) Nghien cdu dng dung cdc md hinh kinh te luang phdn tich cdc
nhdn td dnh hudng den ngheo ddi vd de xudt gidi phdp xda ddi gidm ngheo d Ddng Nam Bo, De tai
Khoa hge va Cdng nghe cap Bd, Trffdng Dai hgc Kinh te'TP Ho Chi Minh
4 Trffdng Ddng Ldc, Dang Thi Thao Trieu (2011) Anh hffdng tin dung nhd de'n thu nhap eiia
ndng hg d tinh Hau Giang, Tgp chi Khoa hoc vd Ddo tgo Ngdn hdng, so 111, thang 08/2011
5 Bui Van Trinh, Nguyen Thi Thuy Phffdng (2014) Phan tich cac ye'u td anh hffdng de'n hieu
qua sff dung vd'n vay: Trffdng hdp eiia hg ngheo tren dia ban tinh Sdc Trang, Tgp chi Phdt trien &
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