Evaluating the impacts of climate change on livelihoods of small scale fishermen in coastal settlements in khanh hoa province, vietnam

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AC Adaptive Capacity CCA Climate Change Adaptation CCFSC Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control DFID Department for International Development is a United Kin

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

GREGORY ROBERT MORRIS

EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE,

VIETNAM

MASTER THESIS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

GREGORY ROBERT MORRIS

EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA

PROVINCE, VIETNAM

MASTER THESIS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE

CHANGE

Major:

Topic allocation Decision

Decision on establishing the

Committee:

Defense date:

Supervisors:

Prof Claire Armstrong

Dr Nguyen Ngoc Duy

UNDERTAKING

I undertake that the thesis entitled: “EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE ON LIVELIHOODS OF SMALL-SCALE FISHERMEN IN COASTAL SETTLEMENTS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE, VIETNAM” is my own work The work

has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted

… Date Month Year

Author (Signature and full name)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to express appreciation to the Faculty and Staff / Department of Economics and Management, Nha Trang University and professors of Norhed Master Program for their generous contributions towards my academic sojourn and the completion of my thesis

Special mention goes to my enthusiastic supervisor, Professor Claire Armstrong (University of Tromsoe, Norway) for her tremendous academic support and advice Similar, profound gratitude goes to Dr Nguyen Ngoc Duy (University of Nha Trang, Vietnam), who has been a dedicated mentor and advisor I am also particularly indebted to him for his support

Finally, but by no means least, special thanks go to the God Mighty God Jehovah and

to my late parents, Mr Joseph S Morris and Fatu M Roberts, for their support towards my academic sojourn I would also like to thank my beloved Aunt, Sponsor, and Guidant - Aunt Janet Mayson who has always been there for me from the start Special thanks go to my Sis Debra Mayson, Bro Daniel Johnson, and to my brothers, sisters, and friends for supporting me spiritually and mentally throughout my master studies

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

AC Adaptive Capacity

CCA Climate Change Adaptation

CCFSC Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control

DFID Department for International Development is a United Kingdom

E Exposure

EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone

EM-DAT Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GSO General Statistics Office,

IDS Institute of Development Studies

IFEP, RIMF Institute of Fisheries Economics and Planning and Research Institute for

Marine Fisheries IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ISPONRE Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

JSPS-VAST Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) and Vietnamese Academy

of Science and Technology MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

S Sensitivity

SI Sensitivity Index

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNISDR UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction

USGS United States Geological Survey

VBN Vietnam Breaking News:

VI Vulnerability Index

WB World Bank

TABLE OF CONTENTS

UNDERTAKING iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS v

LIST OF TABLES ix

LIST OF FIGURES x

ABSTRACT xi

CHAPTER ONE 1

INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Statement of the Problem 5

1.3 Objectives of the Research 6

1.4 Research Questions 7

1.5 Significance of the Research 7

1.6 Limitation of the Research 7

1.7 Structure of the Research 8

CHAPTER TWO 10

LITERATURE REVIEW/THEORITCAL FRAMEWORK 10

2.0 A Brief Understanding of Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change 10

2.1 Causes of Climate Change 13

2.2 Potential Consequences of Climate Change 13

2.3 Climate Change and Small Scale Fishing Activities in Vietnam 14

2.4 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptations 15

2.4.1 Background theory for the adaptation to climate change of aquaculture farmers 16 2.5 Theoretical Framework: Sustainable Livelihood Approach 18

2.5.1 Overview of Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) 19

2.5.2 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework 20

2.6 Perception on the Effects of Climate Change on Fishermen’s Income - Developing the Hypotheses 27

CHAPTER THREE 30

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 30

3.0 Introduction 30

3.1 Methodological Approach: SLA Strategy and Application 30

3.2 Study Area 34

3.3 Targeted Population, Sample Size, and Sample 36

3.4 Methods of Data Collection 37

3.5 Methods of Data Analysis 42

3.5.1 General Survey and FGD Data Analysis 42

CHAPTER FOUR 47

RESEARCH FINDINGS 47

4.0 Socio-Economic Characteristics of the Fishermen 47

4.2 Factors Influencing Fishermen’s Yearly Income – Regression Output 53

4.3 Focus Group Discussion Findings 54

4.3.1 Tool 1: Livelihoods Vulnerability Matrix 55

4.3.2 Tool 2: Pair-Wise Ranking 56

4.3.3 Tool 3: Preference Ranking of Preferred Coping and Adaptive Strategies 57

4.4 Impacts of Storms, Heavy and Long rainfall, and Flooding on Livelihood Assets and Activities - Findings 58

4.4.1 Impact of Storms (Typhoon) 59

4.4.2 Impact of Heavy and long Rainfall 60

4.4.3 Impact of Flooding 60

4.5 Fishermen and their Families Access to Livelihood Assets 61

4.6 Fishermen and their families’ Preparedness for and Adaptation to Climate Change 62

4.7 Types of Coping Strategies and Adaptation 63

4.7.1 Institutional Profiling: Venn Diagram 64

CHAPTER FIVE 65

RESULTS, DISCUSSION, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 65

5.0 Introduction 65

5.1 Vulnerability Context 66

5.2 Livelihoods Assets 69

5.2.1 Human and Social Capital/Assets 69

5.2.3 Financial Capital 70

5.3 Policies, Institutions, and Processes 73

5.4 Livelihood Strategies and Livelihood Outcomes 74

5.5 Conclusion and Recommendations 75

5.5.1 Addressing the Research Objectives 75

5.5.2 Recommendations 78

REFERENCES 79 Appendix

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Sample Population by Study Sites 36

Table 2: Socio-Economic Characteristics of Fishermen 48

Table 3: The Relationship between Fishing Activities and Weather/Climate Condition 51

Table 4: Severity of Effects (SOE) of Environmental and Extreme Weather and Climate Events/Issues 53

Table 5: Factors Influencing Fishermen’s Yearly Income – Regression Output 54

Table 6: Livelihoods Vulnerability Matrix for Both Villages 56

Table 7: Pair-Wise Ranking of Climate Change Impacts (N=10) 57

Table 8: Preference Ranking of Preferred Coping and Adaptive Strategies 58

Table 9: Fishermen’s Coping Strategies and Adaptation Currently Undertaken 63

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: The Sustainable Livelihood Framework 21

Figure 2: Livelihood Assets/ Capitals of a Fishing Community 22

Figure 3: Map of Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam 35

Figure 4: Fishermen’s Awareness/Knowledge of Climate Change 49

Figure 5: Environmental and Climate Events/Issues Experienced in Recent Years (in % of respondents’ identification) 52

Figure 6: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Storm (Typhoon)59 Figure 7: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Heavy & Long Rainfall 60

Figure 8: Impact Level of Livelihood Assets and Activities affected by Flood 61

Figure 9: Access to Livelihoods Assets/Capitals 62

Figure 10: Fishermen and their families’ Preparedness for Climate Change 63

Figure 11: Relationship of Stakeholders and Fishermen 64

ABSTRACT

This research recognizes the importance of evaluating the impacts of climate change on livelihoods of small-scale fishermen in coastal settlements, focusing on Vinh Luong, Nha Trang City and Ninh Ich Ward, Ninh Hoa – Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam Evaluating these fishermen’s perception on the impacts of climate change, discovering the actual realities and impacts, and addressing the gaps are crucial because a deep understanding of how exposed and vulnerable these fishermen are and how they are coping and adapting have great implications

on policy formulation and management options As such, the sustainable livelihoods framework was adopted, modified, and served as a guide of engaging the study with both quantitative and qualitative methods One of the hypotheses is that to ascertain whether or not the current status

of fishing activities and social capital have significant impacts on fishermen’s income

Two main survey tools were employed to provide answers to the study’s objectives which included: structured-household interviews and focus group discussion Data on socio-demographics, awareness and perception on climate change and its impacts, and livelihoods were collected from 50 households Overall, fishery-based livelihoods in households of Vinh Luong and Nich Ich endure much impact from extreme weather and climate-related events It was realized that these communities are exposed because fisher folks live near the coastline, have limited capacity, and livelihoods are heavily dependent upon declining fish resources One interesting finding that became a reality through the regression analysis is that fishing activities were found to have negative correlation with fishermen’s income which was not in line with some previous studies and literatures Moreover, the findings revealed that lack of capacity and climate experts have resulted into greater exposure to the effects of extreme weather-climate related disasters and events, decrease in fish stock as a result of warming temperature and much catch pressure on fish stock resources, and lack of participation in major decision making in

these communities’ affairs – were found to be the reasons behind the low ability and capacity

of these communities to withstand and/or to be resilient to these extreme weather and climate issues and other socio-economic challenges

Two main entry points are recommended for future intervention to assist these fishing communities in order to manage the exploitation and sustainability of fisheries resources, to increase their resilience, and to sustain better livelihoods conditions – a) more focus should be directed on the improvement of human and social capital and b) the need to strengthen political and institutional structuring of these communities through more participation and integration approaches These could be policies options to making fisher-folks’ physical, financial and natural capitals more effective and efficient, thereby increasing their capacity and resiliency to face the challenges and risks climate change poses and other socio-economic challenges and constraints

Keywords: Climate Change Impacts, Extreme Weather and Climate Events, Sustainable

Livelihoods, and Fisher folks’ Adaptation

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction

Humans have long recognized that climate conditions influence their way of life in many ways such as natural changes occurring in physical environments and extreme weather and climate events being triggered by changing technologies and innovations humans develop

to satisfy their needs and wants Changes in weather and climate conditions may be due or partly due to natural causes but it is certain that most of these changes are due to human activities (IPCC, 2007) For instance, global warming, sometimes referred to as climate change

to a wider extent, is the gradual increase in average temperature of the earth’s climate system, both the atmosphere and oceans, due to emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly released by humans (IPCC, 2007) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated in its latest projection that the temperature of the earth’s climate system is likely to increase from 0.3°C to 1.7 °C in the lowest emissions scenario, and in the highest emissions scenario, between 2.6°C to 4.8 °C (IPCC, 2013) This points out that global warming has already triggered the global hydrological cycle of the earth’s climate system; prompting many extreme weather events including storms, heavy rain, sea level rise, flooding, etc

Climate change tragedies on a global scale are enormous and devastating According to

Living With Risk (2004, p 5), “the consequences of disasters last much longer and are more

poignantly measured in isolation – lives lost, livelihoods disrupted, property destroyed and

environments damaged These losses impede human development and often erode previously

hard-won individual and national accomplishments They also compromise current and future resources upon which societies and future generations depend.” Many countries, both

developed and developing, have experienced many setbacks from disasters emanating from

are the overflowing of the normal confines of a stream of water over areas that are not normally submerged, have accounted for at least eight million deaths globally during the last century (EM-DAT, 2004) Around 12 thousand people died and over 153 million people were impacted all over the world in 2005 due to wind storms, floods, droughts and temperature extremes (EM-DAT, 2005 quoted in Lynch et al., 2008) Flood and other extreme weather disasters have been rapidly increasing in recent years, resulting in loss of human lives, deterioration of socio-economic status of communities, and long-lasting traumatization of victims (Living with Risk, 2004) Globally, the number of people at risk has been increasing by 70 to 80 million each year and most of this estimate is in the developing world, where poverty levels are high and where the biggest burden of exposure to disasters lies (Living with Risk, 2004)

The World Bank highlighted that climate change is expected to hit hard, mostly in developing countries that are not industrialized as compare to industrialized countries where most of these emissions of greenhouses are released (World Bank, 2016) The atmosphere has

no borders between countries This could, however, pose a significant challenge to the

Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations, particularly those pillars related to

reducing poverty and hunger, and promoting environmental sustainability, mostly in developing countries According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2016 (Kreft et al 2014), all

of the first ten countries most affected by climatic risks during 1995-2014 were developing countries, and Vietnam has been ranked the 7th on this list The Climate Risk Index shows a level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events that countries should understand as a warning to be prepared for more frequent and/or more severe weather events in the future (Kreft

et al 2014)

According to the Asia Development Bank (2009), Vietnam is one of the developing countries that is hit hard by climate change because of its geographical location and its heavy dependence on agricultural activities and marine resources as means of survival In its 2009

report, the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), highlighted that Vietnam is vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change, such as warmer temperatures, increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events, drought, sea level rise, among other climate change elements The World Bank also proclaimed that Vietnam is situated in one of the top spots on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world (Dasgupta, et al.2009)

The coastal zone of Vietnam is rich in natural resources with high population density and concentration of many economic activities including small scale fishing and commercial fishing activities involving all kinds of fishing gear types However, Vietnam’s coastline has great potential of environmental hazards such as earthquakes, erosion, typhoons (storm), floods, sea level rise, etc According to a survey conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA, 2012) on the ASEAN Regional Collaboration in Disaster Management, storm and floods are the frequent natural disasters in Vietnam It is estimated that Vietnam is being hit by 4.3 storms annually Flooding is one the widely disastrous natural events in Vietnam and ranked second to typhoons and other forms of storms These events pose serious challenges to the country’s socio-economic development Coastal residents living in areas that affected and prone to extreme weather conditions possess little-to-no adaptive capacity and are ill-prepared

to deal with climate change consequences Efforts have been made by the Vietnamese Government and international partners to formulate environmental and protection policies and programs and to strengthen communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity, but these actions have not been able to achieve its goals and still remain ineffective (OXFAM, 2008)

The impacts of climate change are expected to be worst on a number of sectors in Vietnam (ISPONRE, 2009) including the agricultural sector which involves fish production by small scale fisher folks Storms (typhoons), heavy rain, sea level rise, flooding among other

extreme weather events and the changing nature of climate conditions However, tropical storms, typhoons, rainfall and river runoff floods are the frequent disasters in Vietnam (Dasgupta, et al.2009) According to Blaikie (1994), the consequences of storms and floods due

to climate change include: coastal habitat loss, damages of infrastructures near coastlines, reduction in fish catch, and reduction of fisher folks’ income This could be expected to lead to reduction in fish production and have negative impacts on many people who depend on small scale fishing activities as the major source of livelihood activities Several climate disasters including storms and floods have already taken place in Vietnam, displacing thousands and leaving various communities under water on several occasions For instance, storms and floods did not only damage houses, roads, harbors, harvest, etc but also these climate change events caused a great number of lives lost From 1979 to 2003, loss of hundreds of lives and damages

of hundreds billion VND were caused by storms and floods, annually (JSPS-VAST, 2007)

Climate change exposes humans to conditions beyond their realms If humans lack the knowledge and the capacity to deal with these abnormal conditions, the economic and human losses can be huge Vietnamese policy makers require not only reliable assessments of extreme weather events, but also an understanding of the socio-economic implication of these hazards Thus, this study explores the impacts of climate change on small scale fisher folks’ livelihoods

in coastal settlements of Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam More explicitly, this study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the socio-economic impact of the most recent extreme weather and climate events including storms, heavy and long rain, and flooding In particular, the research focused on households’ awareness and perception of climate change, determining climate change impacts on fishing activities and on other socioeconomic factors relative to fishermen households, and uncovering adaptive strategies adopted to climate change impacts, with a view to recommending more effective adaptation options

1.2 Statement of the Problem

As stated above, Vietnam is one of the developing countries most exposed to climate change by nature of its geography Twenty-four percent of Vietnam’s population lives in coastal districts (Tran Duc Thanh et al, 2004) Storms and related damages from floods and tidal surges are among the most significant climate stresses that disrupting livelihoods for coastal residents (King et al, 2009) Coastal mangroves, salt marshes and coral reefs – critical to breeding marine life – are all endangered (IPCC, 2007) Hence, the problem which this study addresses is the socio-economic impacts of climate change on small-scale fishermen’s livelihoods in coastal settlements of Khanh Hoa Province The study sites chosen are situated in coastal regions which are severely storm and flood affected zones

Many fishing communities in Vietnam, especially in coastal areas, are poor and lack the capital as well as the necessary knowledge for coping and adapting to the impacts of climate change (King et al, 2009), resulting into many constraints and challenges of fisher folks Especially in Khana Hoa Province area Khanh Hoa Province’s coastline has been exploited because of its abundance of fish species (about 600 fish species mostly pelagic) with a considerate amount being of high economic value, in addition to other divers natural resources and features (IEFP & RIMF, 2005) Khanh Hoa’s coast holds a considerable relative advantage

in terms of marine resources but faces many environmental issues emanating from critical climate conditions For instance, it was reported on November 4, 2015 Edition by the Dantri Newspaper that serious flooding affected more than 700 households in Khanh Hoa Province's Cam Nghia District The floods submerged 30 hectares of shrimp-raising areas, causing an estimated VND12 billion (US$615,000) in losses, while landslides have caused losses upwards

of VND 4 billion ($205,000) (VBN, 2016) In Khanh Hoa Province, fisher folks and other coastal residents are heavily dependent on small scale fishing activities, aquaculture, crop production and vegetable gardening, and some petit trading activities Owing to Khanh Hoa’s

geographical location, that is, situated in a coastal zone, these fishing communities have limited capacity and capability to control and withstand strong windstorms ensuing from the ocean and heavy rain from the atmosphere As a result, many households experience flying roofs off their houses caused by storms, flooding in their houses and around the community from rising tides and heavy rainfall, fear of fishing due to storm surges and torrential rains, among other extreme weather conditions, exacerbating many already prevalent socio-economic problems Moreover, these events cause migration and displacement of households from their usual dwelling places and have varying impacts on these communities’ infrastructure, health conditions, habitation, and other means of livelihoods

1.3 Objectives of the Research

In general, the study aims to provide an in-depth understanding of the socio-economic impact of most recent extreme weather and climate events including storms, heavy and long rainfall, and floods impacts on small-scale fishermen’s livelihoods in Khanh Hoa Province, with a view of finding more effective adaptation and management options Two coastal communes in Khanh Hoa Province - Vinh Luong, Nha Trang City and Ninh Ich, Ninh Hoa were chosen as the studied sites The specific objectives of the study were as follows:

1 To assess fishermen’s awareness and perception of climate change and its impacts;

2 To ascertain climate change impacts and other factors that are significantly influencing small-scale fisher folks livelihoods in recent years, particularly impacts on vulnerability, fishing activities, income level, and other socio-economic variables;

3 To discover coping and adaptive strategies adopted and level of satisfaction applying them; and

4 To recommend more effective adaptation and management options

1.4 Research Questions

This research endeavors to answer the following questions:

1 How aware and perceived are fishermen about climate change and its impacts?

2 What are the various impacts of climate change and other factors that are significantly influencing small-scale fisher folks’ livelihoods in recent years, particularly on fisher folks’ vulnerability, fishing activities, income level, and other socio-economic variables?

3) What are the coping and adaptive strategies adopted and level of satisfaction of fisher folks?

4) What can be done to reduce the impact of these extreme weather and climate events and

to strengthen fisher folks’ resilience and adaptive capacity?

1.5 Significance of the Research

This research is significant in a sense that the study of climate change and its impacts can be a learning paradigm where environmental issues and climate sciences are fully engaged

to enhance interested people’s knowledge Importantly, the findings of this thesis are expected

to expand our knowledge on climate change effects, provide added information for other environmental studies and increase knowledge of environmentalists and fisher folks, the government, and other stakeholders in order to better understand and design stronger and sustainable adaptation mechanisms to cope with extreme weather and climate events

1.6 Limitation of the Research

Due to the scope of this research, there are limitations that the researcher acknowledges Some to include: a) the un-cooperative attitude of many respondents; many thought that the researcher have something to do with information given considering the sensitive nature, other

than for academic purpose Initially, the total sample considered for this entire research was

100 but it was later cut-down by 50% including FGD participants The situation appears to be that it is very difficult for a foreign student to extract information from locals This situation was also experienced by the researcher on numerous occasions during class exercises and excursions in remote regions during the course of the program This could, however, be due to the fear of locals regarding the dissemination of information into the wrong hands or for some political and economic reasons, b) lack of opportunity to meet key stakeholders; unwillingness

of key individuals in the environmental protection and fishery system to participate in interview, and c) lack of finances Despite these constraints, the researcher endeavored with great patience and determination and acquired the relevant data that enable the execution of this investigation

1.7 Structure of the Research

This thesis has been divided into five major parts The first part includes introduction, statement of the problem, objectives of the research, research questions, limitations of the research, and structure of the research The introduction part presents the basic information on the background of some prevailing climate change issues around the world and its impact and specifically, highlighted some insights of its increasing disasters in Vietnam The problem statement presents the background information on the research questions and the issues and challenges that needed to be addressed The objectives stated also demonstrate the importance

of this research The limitations that have been encounter for writing this thesis are also presented

The second part deals with the literature review/theoretical background of the study In this part of the thesis, the researcher also chooses to present and analyze the theoretical framework of evaluating livelihoods as well as drawing upon hypotheses

The third part of the thesis elaborated on the description of the research methodology employed to achieve the study’s aim and objectives This part is structured into five sections The first section explains the methodological approaches The second section gives an overview

of the study context and justifies the selection of study site The third section describes the targeted population, sample size, and sample The fourth section describes the methods of data collection The fifth section describes the methods of data analysis

The final part of the thesis contains the result of the research on climate change impacts on livelihoods of fisher folks, followed by discussions The content of the thesis ends with conclusion which deals with summary of the entire report

CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW/THEORITCAL FRAMEWORK 2.0 A Brief Understanding of Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

It is vitally important to understand the difference between weather, climate, climate variability, and climate change in order to get deeper understanding of climate change and its

related issues Weather, as often viewed, is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and its

short-term variation in minutes to days or weeks It is the current state of the atmosphere, mainly with respect to its effects on human activities and habitation (IPCC, 2007) Generally, people usually perceive weather as the combination of days or weeks’ temperature, precipitation,

cloudiness, wind, etc According to the IPCC (2012, p 557) definition, “Climate in a narrow

sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical

description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years” Climate is often viewed as the

seasonal trend instead of day-to-day or on the basis of few weeks like weather For instance, some dry seasons are colder than others Some years have more intense rainfall than others These are conditions of the ‘climate’ situation People often view climate variability in the same way as they view weather variability For instance, general public statements like: “the last few rainy seasons have seemed short,” or “there seems to be more heavy rainstorms in recent years”, reflect this perspective Climate scientists, however, think of climate variability

as the way climate fluctuates (above or below a weather average value) in the very long term, probably close to thousands or millions of years (U.S Global Change Research Program, 2009)

As stated earlier, it is important for one to understand the difference between weather, climate, climate variability, and climate change in order to get a deeper understanding of climate change and its related issues Changes in weather patterns may be abrupt and noticeable whereas

changes in the climate are unpredictable or less noticeable because of the longevity of observations undertaken by scientists For instance, specific weather in a region experienced in the last days, weeks, or months may have a slight difference from one year to the next; perhaps

a few degrees hotter, or a few degrees colder, which may lead to a conclusion by many people that the climate is changing This could, however, be a rapid shift in climate conditions, but it

is highly likely that these fluctuations are just natural from one short period to another short period Because many people experience and get notions of fluctuations in weather patterns or climate conditions over the years or in their life-time, and open media often mention climate change in daily stories, it is very easy or highly likely for one to confuse these climate conditions – weather, climate, and climate variability as climate change

Nevertheless, the Earth's climate systems have changed and these changes have been recorded throughout history However, many scientists believe that far less of these climate changes are being influenced by small variations (natural causes) in earth’s orbital systems that eventually change the quantity of solar power the earth receives Rather they believe that far more of these climate changes are being influenced and accelerated by the continuous release

of greenhouse gases by human industrialized activities which have significantly altered the Earth’s Climate system including the atmosphere, the land, and ocean ecosystems (IPCC, 2004)

During the mid-19th century, the heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases were studied by physicist John Tyndall He recognized the effects of natural greenhouse gases and suggested that changes in the composition of the atmosphere could result

in climatic variations A few years after in 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius projected that carbon dioxide released in a significant amount in the atmosphere could significantly change the surface (both land and ocean) temperature through the greenhouse effect (NRC,

greenhouses gases into the atmosphere will cause the earth to eventually warm in response to these alterations

However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2007) reported that carbon dioxide is now 30 percent higher than it was 150 years ago Carbon dioxide concentration has not been as high as it is now in the last 400,000 years While some of the carbon dioxide released is absorbed into the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, about 50% of it remains in the atmosphere Economic and industrial activities emanating from human activities also help to accelerate emissions of several other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere As a result, more and more heat has been trapped by increasing the volume of these greenhouse gases, leading to an increase in the global temperature in the past one hundred years what scientists refer to as “global warming”(Gillis, 2015)

Still the question remains: what is climate change? According to the IPCC (2012, p

557), Climate change is defined as: “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified

(e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties

and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer” Moreover, climate

change has also been defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC, 1992, p 3) as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to

human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods” According to the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the word ‘change’ in the terminology to ‘climate change’ is to emphasize that atmospheric pollution by greenhouse emissions could result in extreme weather events that can remain trapped in the atmosphere for tens or hundreds of years (UNFCCC, 1992) Climate change is not only limited to global warming Rising global temperatures could also alter processes such as droughts degrading land and water resources Since industrial activities lead to gaseous evaporation rates in the

atmosphere holding tremendous heat and water quantities, it triggers storms and other extreme climate events and they are now becoming more frequent and extreme (IPCC, 2014; UNFCC, 1992)

However, climate change has resulted in a wide range of environmental and economic effects It has affected water resources, fishing activities, agriculture, aquaculture, food security, human-health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity Environment and socio-economic effects have triggered actions among households, communities, local and national governments (UNFCC, 2007) Both developed and developing countries within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are actively discussing and negotiating ways

socio-to deal with the issues of climate change

2.1 Causes of Climate Change

For over centuries, the Earth’s climate has being changing back and forth in different regions, according to many scientific reports and articles However, factors that cause climate change can be divided into two main categories - those related to natural processes and those related to human activity, as stated earlier (IPCC, 2014) Many climate scientists are certain that the main cause of climate change is the emission of greenhouse gases released by humans into the atmosphere (IPCC, 2014) Gases that cause the greenhouse effect (warming that eventually develops when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space) which include: Water vapor, Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane, Nitrous oxide, and Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (IPCC, 2014) Climate change is also caused by natural causes through series of events Some to include: volcano activity, solar cycle activity and cloud, wildfire activity, changes in ocean chemistry, and tectonic plates/ continental drift activity

2.2 Potential Consequences of Climate Change

The consequences of climate change are difficult to predict, but some effects are highly

gases as per the current amount or trend, much of Earth will become warmer These warming

conditions will probably lead to more intense rainfall and storms in certain regions, while in other regions there will be more droughts Oceans will get warmer and more acidic, contributing further to more sea level rise Meanwhile, agricultural activities may respond favorably due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) but at the same time, higher temperatures may cause more harm than good (IPCC, 2007)

2.3 Climate Change and Small Scale Fishing Activities in Vietnam

As earlier stated, Vietnam is one of the developing countries situated in Southern Asia most affected and exposed to climate change owing to its geographical location and low capacity to adapt to the threats and damages Air, land, and water ecosystems are greatly endangered (King et al, 2009; IPCC, 2007) Warming ocean temperature, storm surges, floods, and tidal surges have been nightmares for poor people, fisher folks, and coastal inhabitants in Vietnam According to King et al (2009), these climate change phenomena and their associated events have effected changes in fish assemblages (dominance and persistence) in open sea and changes in coastal inhabitants’ livelihood/behavior; fish are scarcer, migrating towards cooler water for more oxygen, compounded by over-fishing (IPCC, 2007) These climate change activities have not only caused problems for Vietnam’s marine fishery but also for in-land (fresh water) fisheries and aquaculture activities Moreover, extreme weather events such as storms and floods damage aquaculture farms by displacing water, spreading disease, destroying infrastructure, and making coastal dwellers’ habitation more uncomfortable (I-Ching, Chen, et al., 2011)

Vietnam is a heavily fishery dependent country and has been progressing in term of economic growth and development in recent years However, the central government has noticed that extreme weather events pose serious threats to the progress the country now enjoys

According to Malone & Brenkert (2008), Vietnam has only a moderate capacity to adapt to the threats and damages climate change poses and this situation is worrisome However, continued reliance on declining fisheries may have serious negative implications for Vietnam’s economic development and food security, especially for poor people in rural and coastal areas According

to research on climate change-driven impacts on capture fishery conducted by Malone et al (2008), the study ranks Vietnam as 24th on the list as the most economic vulnerable countries

in the world with regards to the importance of fisheries to national economic and food security This study clearly indicates to policymakers and the central government of Vietnam about the need to develop more adaptive measures to maintain the sustainability of fisheries

With the geographic shifting of species, or migration in search for cooler and more oxygenated zones in open seas far from the coast, it is safe to say that these changes could a great impact on the food security of poor people, mainly artisanal fishermen and their families who depend on coastal fishing activities as their main source of livelihood In Vietnam, especially in the southern part, artisanal fishermen usually use fishing materials such as in canoes or small boats, often without motors and low on technology, with limited range offshore Many studies have proven that along the coastlines of Vietnam, the waters are getting warmer, and fish stocks are migrating further into higher latitudes, the northern migration (I-Ching, Chen, et al., 2011; Cheung et al 2013), where artisanal fishermen cannot go because of the fear

of heavy storm, rainfalls, low technology of their fishing boats, trawlers, and canoes

2.4 Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptations

The adverse impacts of climate change have resulted in many environmental and economic effects for countries worldwide It has affected sectors and industries including fishing activities, agriculture, aquaculture, food security, human-health, marine ecosystems and biodiversity, and resources that are vital to human livelihoods (UNFCC, 2007; EM-DAT, 2004;

socio-local governments, and regional authorities Currently, both developed and developing countries within the United Nations circle are actively discussing and negotiating ways to tackle the growing issues of climate change

Nevertheless, when one speaks of the term “climate change”, for instance, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called “mitigation” (UNISDR 2009) In terms of disaster risk and

disaster, mitigation is defined by the IPCC as “The lessening of the potential adverse impacts

of physical hazards (including those that are human-induced) through actions that reduce hazard, exposure, and vulnerability” (IPCC, 2012, p 561) On the other hand, in terms of

climate change, mitigation is also defined by the IPCC as “a human intervention to reduce the

sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases” (IPCC, 2012, p 561) One good example

of mitigation is moving towards renewable forms of energy, such as solar and wind power, instead of carbon emitting sources of energy On the other front, adaptation is defined by the

IPCC as “In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its

effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2012,p 556)

Some examples of adaptation strategies include conducting risk assessment studies and recommending early warnings, building settlements in safety zones, empowering poor people/locals in rural and/or vulnerable areas, and enhancing public awareness and education

on these unpredictable extreme weather events In a nutshell, mitigation concentrates on the causes of climate change while adaptation focuses on the effects of the phenomenon These measures reduce the risk and threats to vulnerable people’s lives and livelihoods and increase the resilient capacity of communities to all hazardous events

2.4.1 Background theory for the adaptation to climate change of aquaculture farmers

It is predicted that the world’s population will reach 9 billion in the next 40 years which would eventually result in increased food needs globally (McMichael, 2001) The ability to maintain and sustain food resources for an expected population will largely depend on the capability of

food production methods amidst the changing climate conditions that are already taking place across the world The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) analysis on global food production in relation to food trade and marketing systems suggests that the world will be able to feed itself up to the next hundred years This is a scaring prediction as the world’s population is growing faster

However, changes in earth climate systems are mainly affecting developing countries’ means

of survival but for instance, aquaculture farming in developing countries may provide a different case in relation to its contribution to our future food needs From a broader perspective, aquaculture is defined as the farming of aquatic organisms, including fish, molluscs, crustaceans and aquatic plants Fish resources play a major and important role on human’s survival and health conditions Fish is an important source of animal protein and provides livelihood means and food security to millions of people around the world Over the last decades, climate change and its associated disasters and consequences have made humans miserable in many parts of the world As a result, it can be undoubtedly agreed upon that human lives are being impacted in many ways by climate change activities and one of the major ways

is food production and the associated environments we find ourselves (IPCC, 2007) For instance, while it is true that aquaculture may be one of many ways to secure food for the future, climate changes are affecting aquaculture farming activities in many ways Some to include: temperature changes in both water and air ecosystems and other changes in ocean’s conditions

Nevertheless, there are several adaptation options and opportunities that can be applied

in aquaculture farming activities but it is difficult to predict how the coping and adaptive

systems will counter react to climate change Responses may be depended mainly on the

characteristics of the adaptive capability and techniques employ by aquaculture farmers and technicians However, developing countries affected by climate change activities –

that will improve the management systems of aquaculture farms, protect the habitats (biodiversity) of the aquatic ecosystems, respond to the current challenges and opportunities on livelihood activities and food security, and push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (FAO, 2009)

2.5 Theoretical Framework: Sustainable Livelihood Approach

This study attempts to capture, systemize and analyze the small-scale fisher folks’ views and experiences of existing and potential climate change impacts and events in Khanh Hoa Province, including storms, heavy rainfall, and flood occurrences and damages

In Vietnam, it is important to note that it is demanding to understand the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries as time series data and other important information relating to local fisheries are not available and the impacts of other anthropogenic factors are large For instance;

on the issue of anthropogenic factors, pollution in the ocean emanating from improperly disposed chemical waste and other waste disposal, use of destructive gear (banned gear), increases in fishing pressure, etc have had colossal impacts on marine resources and other ecosystems, resulting in declining fish landings, low incomes, coastal degradation, etc (ADB, 2009) All these impediments have been undermining proper understanding of impacts of climate change on marine fisheries and other sectors that support livelihoods systems in Vietnam, as they may mask the climate effects This study seeks to separate out impacts due to climate change only As such, the existing and potential climate change impacts influencing small scale fishing activities and other means of livelihoods in Khanh Hoa Province were assessed through the use of (i) the Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) adopted by the British Department for International Development (DFID, 1999) The Sustainable Livelihood Approach serves both as a guide and analytical tool, and the use of Inferential Statistics provides descriptive statistics and other forms of inferential statistical techniques to demonstrate perceived knowledge of small scale fishers Such approaches help extracted relevant

information on the state of the recent impact of climate change on small scale fishing activities and also detect other socio-economic issues of fishermen

2.5.1 Overview of Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA)

According to Chambers & Conway (1992), the SLA is a very broad and multidisciplinary concept that aims to promote better understanding of groups of people’s living conditions in extreme situations or conditions For instance, an extreme situation or condition could be poverty or climate change These scholars’ conceptual approach towards analyzing people’s means of living were mainly based on “stresses and shocks” that people endure and what they have to “maintain and enhance” their livelihoods assets for now and for future generations

During the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, the ideology of sustainable livelihoods was coined by the Brundtland Commission on Environment and Development Two researchers, namely; Robert Chambers and Gordon Conway, as earlier mentioned above, coined a definition of sustainable livelihood which states:

“a livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims and access) and activities required for a means of living: a livelihood is sustainable which can cope with and

recover from stress and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, and provide

sustainable livelihood opportunities for the next generation; and which contributes net

benefits to other livelihoods at the local and global levels and in the short- and long-term”

(Chambers and Conway, 1992, p 6)

Since then, there have been many definitions of sustainable livelihoods including definitions from the Institute for Development Studies (IDS) and the British Department for International Development (DFID) Scoones (1998), Carney et al (1999) and others are of the

view that ‘livelihoods’ are simply the means, activities, privileges, entitlements and assets by which people make a living or by which means people secure their basic necessities of life - food, water, shelter and clothing For example, fishermen's livelihood depends on the availability of fish As part of the core principles of sustainable livelihoods approach, it is important that the assessment fully incorporate the local people or stressed group by letting their knowledge, voices, perceptions, and interests to be felt and heard to a wider extent during the survey exercise or discussions (Scoones, 1998)

Moving on, livelihoods assessment of people is a form of exercise that investigates the behavior of an individual, a household, or a community under a specific extreme condition or situation (DFID, 1999) One way to get a deeper understanding of the livelihood systems is to assess the realities of the impacts as well as the coping and survival strategies employed by individuals and communities as response (s) to any shocks and stresses as in the case of this study

2.5.2 The Sustainable Livelihoods Framework

The sustainable livelihood framework is essentially important to understand people or community vulnerability to stresses or shocks (i.e climate change) because it brings together major livelihoods assets and range of activities that influence them The sustainable livelihoods framework demonstrates the interaction between these livelihoods assets and activities, and puts them into range of perspectives to pursue a systematic assessment The British Department for International Development (1999) build up and adapted from the ideologies of Chambers and Conway and coined a framework for the analysis of sustainable livelihood, comprising of key components which include: the vulnerability context (shocks, stresses, trends, and seasonality), the livelihood assets (natural, financial, physical, human, and social), policies,

institutions, and processes (management, adaptive policies, etc.), Livelihoods Strategies, and Livelihoods Outcomes These are being discussed below in Figure 1

Legend: N- Natural H- Human S- Social P-Physical F- Financial

Livelihood Policies, Institutions, Livelihood

Co Assets & Processes Outcomes

Influence

Access

Figure 1: The Sustainable Livelihood Framework

Adapted and modified from the British Department for International Development (DFID,

1999)

i Livelihood Assets

First, it is important to note how different types of livelihood assets are being influenced by elements of the vulnerability context, taking into account a number of existing policies, institutions, and processes being undertaken or put into action Thus, the livelihood assets of a fishery-based community can be assembled into five components known as five capital assets which include: natural, human, social, physical, and financial Figure 2 According to Carney (1998), assets are considered to be stocks of different types of capital that can be used as means

of livelihoods These livelihoods assets, sometimes referred to as capital, can contribute

Improved of

Socio-economic factors; income, food, wellbeing, etc and

empowered of

social participation and other social activities

More effective

Sustainable use of Natural Resource Base

Reduced

Vulnerability

immensely to significant amount of output now for better livelihoods status, and can also be depleted as a consequence of lack of knowledge on usage or other human-induced activities

On the other hand, capital may be a positive influence now and in the future for productive activities Based on the five types of capital as identified by the sustainable livelihood framework adapted by the British Department for International Development (DFID, 1999), they are as follow:

Figure 2: Livelihood Assets/ Capitals of a Fishing Community

(Adapted and modified from the British Department for International Development (DFID,

1999; Satia, 2004; Townsley, 2004)

 Natural capital (N): This consists of land, water, and biological resources such as fish

species and other aquatic resources Natural capital also includes non-fisheries resources

in which people can also be dependent such as land for agricultural production and freshwater for drinking and other usage The SLA’s natural capital emphasizes that the productivity and sustainability of these natural resources depend on human management (Satia, 2004; Carney, 1998)

(e.g., participation and membership in

community organizations and

networking activities, political parties,

local leaders and governance structure

Physical

E.g.: fishing boats, gears, houses, and

other form of personal belongings,

and also on community level: roads,

clinics, schools, electricity, etc.

OF A COASTAL FISHING COMMUNITY

 Human capital (H): This focuses on human knowledge, human capacity and skills,

active labour availability, health condition, etc and ability to work and put in effort for better livelihoods (Satia, 2004)

 Financial capital (F): This consists of physical cash, insurances, or other savings in

liquid form However, financial capital does not include financial assets as in worth of property, worth of livestock, etc Any income or worth assumed other than physical cash

or in some other liquid forms may be considered as natural capital Financial capital includes income levels, financial savings, access to credit, debt levels, checks, etc (DFID, 1999).

 Physical capital (P): This includes infrastructures, services, and tools used by people to

make living In a fishery-based community, physical capitals on a household level include: fishers’ boats, gears, nets, dryers, plants, house, and other forms physical personal belongings and also on a community level – schools, clinics, communication systems, roads, irrigation and sewage systems, electricity, housing, etc According to FAO (2005), poor fishing communities are often endured by bad roads and other poor social services Access to both fishery and non-fishery physical assets are of great concern to poor fishing communities (Westlund et al., 2007)

 Social capital (S): This focuses on the social interaction of community, family, social

networking, community members’ participation, empowerment, and capacity building programs, etc that can be useful in times of difficulties and also can be used in achieving livelihood objectives Some social capital are formal such as local and provincial government structure while others are informal such as petit trading linkages, kinship, culture, and traditional practices (DFID, 1999; Townsley, 2004)

ii Livelihood Strategies

Livelihood strategies incorporate wide range of livelihood factors and choices that group of people make in order to achieve better living conditions (DFID, 1999) Scoones (1998) pointed out that there are three levels of livelihood strategies people living in rural regions can normally employ during stressed situations These three levels include: 1) intensification or extensification, of agricultural products and activities 2) diversification of livelihood activities, and 3) stakeholders’ migration For instance, in a coastal fishing community, stakeholders are often engaged in many livelihood activities Stakeholders include: fisher folks, fish processors, petit traders, local fishing authority, local government, boat sellers and mechanics, and others involved in fishery In a fishery based community, a household may be involved in fishing, fishing activities, and/or petit trading in other agriculture productions Their livelihood activities might be diversified due to several reasons: It could be uncertainty of income generating from fishing or other fish productions, fluctuation in the amount of caught fish at sea which may in turn create a negative chain reaction on others’ income (dependents on fishing activities) (Allison and Ellis, 2001) On the other hand, fisher folks - boats owners/captains and crew members may leave their family for a protracted period of time and sail to other regions

in search for more fish (Satia, 2004) Therefore, in a fishery-based community, livelihood strategies are diverse Fisher folks and other stakeholders combine a variety of livelihood activities and choices to meet their various needs (Scoones, 1998)

iii Factors Influencing Livelihoods Assets and Strategies

In a fishery-based community, particular coastal region, people livelihoods are influenced

by many factors Based upon the concepts of the British Department for International Development (2000) and Ellis (2000), these factors can be boiled down into two main categories: 1) The Vulnerability Context, and 2) Policies, Institutions, and Processes

The vulnerability context seeks to uncover the reality of how local people or a rural community operates when they are being exposed or are vulnerable to the external environment Within the vulnerability context, the external factors mainly comprise of shocks, trends, and seasonality These external factors are issues that people have limited capacity or little-to-no capacity to control and thereby have great influence on a number of livelihood assets and strategies of which their livelihoods rest upon (DFID, 1999; Ellis, 2000) For instance, the shocks and stresses that fisher folks experience from extreme weather conditions – such as typhoons, torrential rainfall, floods, high temperature creating massive fish stock migration, unwillingly selling fishing assets as coping strategies, etc can affect people who depend on fishery for survival (Westlund et al., 2007) Another element is trend which emphasizes on the changing nature of these stressors and shocks such as changes in rainfall pattern, changes in temperature, trends in declining fish stock; rising poverty level, etc can have adverse effect on people’s livelihood strategies as they sometimes confuse policy makers and make strategies ineffective Fluctuations in the seasonality of weather patterns can also have great impact on people who are heavily dependent on fishery as declining changes in fish availability and production can alter adverse effects on fish prices, and other fishing activities and commodities However, Policies, Institutions, and Processes are important instruments that can be used in addressing these influencing factors of the vulnerability context Putting a number of Policies, Institutions, and Processes in place can help people become more resilient to the impacts of these stresses and shocks (DFID, 1999)

The DFID (1999) pointed out that one effective way to get a better understanding is to determine people’s access to livelihoods assets and their capacity to formulate effective

livelihood strategies Access is defined as: “the opportunity in practice to use a resource or

service or to obtain information, material, technology, employment, food or income” (Chambers and Conway, 1992, p 8).” Moreover, Kelly and Adger, (2000) mentioned that the

ways stressed people are able to access different kinds of livelihood assets, stocks, or resources

is another effective way in finding out their level of vulnerability and ability to cope and adapt Therefore, in order to grasp deeper understanding of people’s livelihoods in areas prone to climate change events, for instance; a fishing community, it is important to assess the Policies, Institutions, and Processes such as the local fishing authority (rules, regulations, policies), NGOs, and other social societal organizations that are interested in fisheries If policies, institutions, and processes are not effective or absent at all, this could ultimately make people more vulnerable

iv Livelihood Outcomes

Within the “policies, institutions, and processes” component of the SLA framework, humans’ accessibility, utilization, and management of livelihoods assets is vitally important as

it can trigger positive and negatives outcomes Livelihood outcomes now are of major concern The SLA adopted by the DFID (1999) emphasizes that livelihoods stock and flows of capitals assets are being used to develop livelihoods strategies in order to achieve suitable livelihood outcomes Livelihood outcomes are simply the expected outputs emanating from the livelihood strategies being implemented (DFID, 1999) For instance;

a Improvement of Socio-economic status include: more income, availability of

basic necessities, improved wellbeing, etc.;

b Empowerment of social participation and other social activities and involvement;

c More effective sustainable use of natural resource base;

d Reduced vulnerability, etc

However, different livelihood outcomes can sometimes be traded off Livelihood assets, particularly physical and natural capitals, become of great concern The struggle to balance the maximum use of environmental and ecological services to that of the current socio-economic

benefits of people is a difficult decision make Whenever natural resources are used maximally

to create more socio-economic outputs, the environmental and ecological services (ecosystems) get degraded and there are consequences that follow Satia (2004) stressed the need that suitable and effective livelihood outcomes should be achieved without sacrificing sustainability

2.6 Perception on the Effects of Climate Change on Fishermen’s Income - Developing the

Hypotheses

Although it is an unequivocal fact that environmental hazards, climate variability and change, and other forms of shocks and stresses affect people’s wellbeing and hamper their livelihood assets and opportunities, the ability and capacity for people to respond to these events are also influenced by people’s perception and policy support (Weber, 2010) People’s perceptions about environmental issues, climate change risk, disasters, and the entire elements

of vulnerability, as well as their knowledge and experiences over the period are important factors to consider in assessing how household, communities, and society responds to the impacts of these events For instance, Lee et al., (2015) found that in many countries, people’s experiences with local weather conditions have major roles in determining perception of risks associated with climate change The study reported that perceptions of local temperature change, particularly in countries from Asian and Latin American, are the strongest predictor of the risks posed by climate change In Bangladesh, a survey also showed that victims (households) always have a choice to make following a flood event or a disaster, based on their level of perception and perseverance, either to stay or migrate (Béné et al., 2015) Therefore,

it is a matter of understanding people’s perceptions about a particular hazardous or climate event, in order to ascertain the actual impacts of that particular event (s)

Against this backdrop, it is believed that residents in Khanh Hoa Province are impacted drastically to environmental and extreme weather and climate change events and are incapable

of withstanding these impacts They have been significantly hard hit by some of these events in recent years including storm (typhoons), heavy and long rainfall, and flooding Therefore, the hypothesis tends to also ascertain if the current environmental and climate change issues have significant effect on fishermen’s yearly income in Khanh Hoa Province

The research took the following approaches: 1) used a step-wise regression method in identifying the most suitable variables That is, variables that can be independently used in the model to know some effects or relationship Even though it was a simple linear regression approach, it was also ensured that multi-collinearity among variables were reduced That is, examining correlation among variables and thereby reducing variables, and 2) set condition for testing; that is, the confidence level was considered at 95% with a P level of 0.05 Thus, 0.05 likelihood of rejection When the P-value obtained from the regression is less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis For testing the hypothesis on perception of exposure, the input Y range (dependent variable) was considered as Exposure Level and the output X range (independent variables) were considered as fishing activities, age, educational level, health condition, employment status, social capital, and fishermen’s income A simple linear regression approach was used for this analysis.

Generally, fishing activities of a fisherman are dependent on several factors such as the availability of boats, availability of gears, and availability of inputs (financial capital) that he

or she uses (Ocheiwo, 2004) In the same vein, income from fishing activities (or returns) is dependent on these factors However, there are a number of factors that affect fishermen’s income Some factors can be controlled and some factors cannot be controlled depending on the fishing operations and outcomes Some controlled factors of small scale fishermen included: which region to fish, how do they fish in this region, what gears to use to fish, and when do they fish Some uncontrollable factors included; weather conditions, consumers’ taste for