Local community knowledge on the impact of climate change on mangroves and livelihoods

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY AFURE WHYTE OLUOWO LOCAL COMMUNITY KNOWLEDGE ON THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MANGROVES AND LIVELIHOODS: CASE STUDY OF EKPAN M

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

AFURE WHYTE OLUOWO

LOCAL COMMUNITY KNOWLEDGE ON THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MANGROVES AND LIVELIHOODS: CASE STUDY OF EKPAN MANGROVE FOREST, DELTA

STATE NIGERIA

NORHED MASTER THESIS

KHANH HOA -2018

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

AFURE WHYTE OLUOWO

LOCAL COMMUNITY KNOWLEDGE ON THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MANGROVES AND LIVELIHOODS: CASE STUDY OF EKPAN MANGROVE FOREST, DELTA

STATE NIGERIA

NORHED MASTER THESIS

management and climate change Topic allocation decision:

Decision on establishing the

UNDERTAKING

I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Local community knowledge on the impact of

climate change on mangroves and livelihoods: case study of Ekpan mangrove forest,

Delta state, Nigeria” is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for

assessment until the time this thesis is submitted

28/04/2018

AFURE WHYTE OLUOWO

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I want to use this opportunity to thank God Almighty for His grace to complete this

program successfully, although it has not been an easy journey but there were good

people in all sphere ready to assist whenever we needed one At this juncture, I would like

to express my deepest appreciation to the NORHED program management board, the Rectorate board, department of international cooperation, faculty of graduate studies and all lecturers and staff of Nha Trang University who played a part in ensuring a smooth running of the program, their unending support provided best possible conditions for me

to complete my studies My special thanks go to Terney Pradeep Kumara (Ph.D) and Lam Anh Nguyen (Ph.D) for their unrivaled guidance during my study, research and report writing Their patience, motivation, inputs and professional experience helped me a great deal towards actualizing this great feat

I would also like to acknowledge the management and staff of Centre for Environment and Sustainable Livelihood Projects Nigeria (CESLP) for the role played during data collection, collation and gaining community’s willingness to participate in the studies, really it wouldn’t have been possible without its energetic management and staff

members In the same vein, my deepest gratitude goes to my friends Isaac Sarfo, Freeman Elohor for their continuous support and the entire NORHED 2016 class for making my study time worthwhile

Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my parents and to my brothers for supporting me spiritually in prayers and kind words throughout my program

Thank you all!

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Undertaking ……… iii

Acknowledgment ……… iv

Table of contents ……… v

List of symbols ……… vii

List of abbreviations……….……….viii

List of tables ……… ix

List of figures ……… x

Abstract……… xi

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of study……… ………2

1.2 Purpose of study/objectives……….………4

1.3 Research questions……… 4

1.4 Significance of the study……… 5

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Climate change in Nigeria……… 7

2.2 Vulnerability of mangroves to climate change……….15

2.2.1 Changes in temperature……… 15

2.2.2 Changes in atmospheric chemistry……….16

2.2.3 Changes in Ultra Violet……….……… 17

2.2.4 Sea level rise……….17

2.2.5 Physical disturbance- tropical storm……… 18

2.2.6 Rainfall and river plumes……….19

2.2.7 Changes in ocean circulation……… 20

2.3 Combined effect of different influences……… 20

2.4 Impact of climate change on community livelihood……… 21

2.5 Adaptation……… …………22

2.6 Status of Niger-Delta mangroves……….23

CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Study Area……….25

3.2 Study site……… 27

3.3 Research instrument / design……….27

3.3.1 Data collection……….28

3.3.2 Data analysis………29

3.3.3 Limitation of study……….29

CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 Demographic characteristics of respondents……….31

4.2 Awareness on mangrove and benefits……….36

4.3 Awareness on climate change and its impacts………38

4.4 Adaptive strategies employed by the locals………42

4.5 Management of the mangrove forest……… 46

CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Summary……… 49

5.2 Strengths and weaknesses………50

5.3 Recommendations……… 51

LIST OF REFERENCES……… 52 APPENDICES

8 oC: Degree centigrade(unit of temperature)

9 N: Naira( Nigeria currency)

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

1 NEMA: National Emergency Management Agency

2 NIMET: Nigerian Meteorological Agency

3 NEST: Nigerian Environmental Study/action Team

4 NPC: National Population Commission

5 FGD: Focus Group Discussion

6 IPCC: Intergovernmental panel on climate change

7 SPREP: Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme

8 UNEP: United Nations Environment program

9 DESOPADEC: Delta State Oil producing areas commission

10 NDDC: Niger delta development commission

11 NGOs: Non-governmental organizations

12 CBOs: Community based organizations

13 NDES: Niger Delta Environmental survey

14 GHG: Green House Gas

15 BNRCC: Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change

16 CIDA: Canadian International Development Agency

17 SLR: Sea level rise

18 CC: Climate change

19 MDGs: Millennium Development goals

20 CREDC: Community Research and Development Centre

21 NASPA-CCN: National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate

Change in Nigeria

LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1 Summary of key trends in climatic parameters for Nigeria……….15

Table 4.1 Demographic characteristics of respondents……… 35

Table 4.2 Benefits obtained from the mangrove as listed by participants FGD/open forum………37

Table 4.3 Understanding climate variability and change……….39

Table 4.4 Respondents response on impact of climate change……… 41

Table 4.5 Some adaptive/coping strategies used by the locals……….44

Table 4.6 Frequency of event and source of assistance………46

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 pattern of onset and cessation of rainfall in Nigeria……… 8

Figure 2.2 Projected increase in maximum daily temperature across Nigeria…… 10

Figure 2.3 Projected change in average daily rainfall over Nigeria……… 11

Figure 2.4 Projected length of the rainy season by zone……… 12

Figure 2.5 Projected changes in extreme heat days/heat wave days……… 13

Figure 3.1 Map of the Niger Delta showing salinity limits/veg of the coastal zone…26 Figure 3.2 Conceptual framework for the study………28

Figure 4.1 Gender of the respondents……….… 31

Figure 4.2 Age distribution of the respondents……… 32

Figure 4.3 Marital status of respondents……… … 33

Figure 4.4 Educational status of the respondents……… 34

Figure 4.5 Awareness of the benefits of mangroves……… 36

Figure 4.6 Respondents level of awareness on climate change……… 38

Figure 4.7 Extent of climate change knowledge among respondents………39

Figure 4.8 Frequency of climate change event in the study area……… 40

Figure 4.9 Response during natural disaster……… 43

Figure 4.10 Alternative source of livelihoods……….44

Figure 4.11 Respondents view on existence of a management system……… 47

Figure 4.12 Perceived management systems……… 48

ABSTRACT

Mangroves are a taxonomically diverse group of salt-tolerant, mainly arboreal flowering plants that grow primarily in tropical and subtropical regions They are known to provide different ecosystem services and means of livelihood to local communities who are now faced with changing climate The study looks into the awareness of local people in Ekpan community on the benefits of mangroves, their knowledge on impacts of climate change

on the mangrove and livelihoods along with initiated adaptation strategies The study employed qualitative techniques using well-structured questionnaires, interviews, focus group discussions among other strategies to obtain the needed information The data obtained was subjected to descriptive statistical analysis The study results shows the local people are aware of numerous direct and indirect benefits of mangroves impacting positively on people’s livelihoods Flooding, being a single large scale climate event is frequently experienced in the area with several consequences affecting the health of mangroves and welfare of the people Presently, a number of individual coping strategies have been initiated and needs massive support from key stakeholders in enhancing adaptive capacity to existing climate hazards in the area

Keywords: Climate change, impact, mangroves, livelihoods, Ekpan, Niger Delta

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of study

Mangroves are a taxonomically diverse group of salt-tolerant, mainly arboreal, flowering plants that grow primarily in tropical and subtropical regions (Ellison & Stoddart 1991) These ecosystems are known to provide different ecosystem services such

as regulation of climate, water purification, storm control and storm barriers, as well as habitats for mollusks, crustaceans, water birds and varieties of fishes

The usefulness of these ecosystems is currently threatened by climate change variability heightened by growing human pressure on the environment Alongi (2014) rightly described mangroves as economically diverse plants rich in value in the form of trees, shrubs, palm or ground fern, generally not exceeding half a meter in height and which grows above mean sea level in the intertidal zones of marine coastal environments, or estuarine margins (Duke 1992) The most commonly known mangrove trees in the Niger

Delta region of Nigeria are; Rhizophora racemosa, Rhizophora harrisonii, Rhizophora mangle, Avicennia marina, Ceriops tagal, Rhizophora mucronata and white mangrove; the Rhizophora racemose occupies the greatest density of the forest, thereby accounting

for approximately 90% of all mangrove biota (Abere & Ekeke, 2011)

These mangroves are distributed latitudinally within the tropics and subtropical areas, reaching their maximum development between coordinate 25°N and 25°S (Hensel et al., 2002), basically existing in about 118 countries and territories worldwide (Giri et al 2011) with an estimated size not less than 170,000 km2 (Field, 1995), of which Nigeria can boast of about 10% area cover after Indonesia with 30% These unique ecosystems are abundant and characterize the Nigeria Niger Delta, which is predominant in the following Nigeria states; Bayelsa, Delta, Cross river, Ondo, Edo, Akwa-Ibom and Rivers (Mmom and Arokoyu, 2010) Sadly, these precious ecosystems are currently experiencing high level disturbances mainly from anthropogenic influences widely attributed to clear-cutting for agricultural purposes, sand filling, land reclamation for human habitation,

deforestation as well as oil exploration to extraction uses known to degrade these vital ecosystems (Nwosu and Holzlohner, 2016) Nwosu and Holzlohner (2016), reported a new estimate of 10,515km2 for the Nigeria mangrove, from the earlier estimate of 11,134

km2 in 1997 (Spalding et al., 1997), implying a loss of about 5.6% of the total mangrove area to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances

Although the anthropogenic disturbances have been reported extensively to be the major cause of global ecosystem losses, these activities which constitutes mainly livelihood options and economic sustenance processes end up disrupting the ecosystem stability, thereby weakening their resilience and resistance to climate change impacts such as storm surges and other extreme weather events making mangroves more vulnerable

The growing impacts of climate change will likely have a substantial effect on mangrove ecosystems through extreme weather events and processes such as sea level rise (SLR), changing ocean currents, increasing storminess and temperature, changes in precipitation

as well as CO2 concentration (Gilman et al., 2008; McKee et al., 2012) The occurrence of one or more of these processes can cause substantial changes in fish population and species distribution and the worrisome migration of endemic species, invasion of underwater species, loss of wildlife habitat, intrusion of saline water, and the landward or seaward movement of mangroves (Gilman et al., 2008), with an overall impact on the communities that solely depend on their services for survival

Although, there are robust studies on Nigeria mangroves and noteworthy to the present study is the investigation of community structure of crustacean zooplankton in Ekpan creek, a perturbed tributary of Warri River, Niger Delta, Nigeria (Imoobe et al., 2008) Heavy metal pollutants in Warri River Nigeria (Ayenimo et al., 2005), A preliminary investigation of heavy metals in periwinkles from Warri River Nigeria (Ayenimo et al., 2006) Heavy metals and macroinvertebrate communities in bottom sediments of Ekpan creek (Olomukoro & Azubuike 2009), mangrove forest depletion, biodiversity loss and traditional resources management practices in the Niger Delta, Nigeria (Mmom & Arokoyu 2010) Changes in species diversity due to dredged spoils in the mangrove forest

of the Niger Delta, Nigeria (Ndukwu and Edwin 2007) Assessment of heavy metals in surface water and bottom sediment of Ekpan Creek, Effurun, Delta State, Nigeria (Oluowo & Isibor 2016) and effects of climate change through temperature increase on heavy metals concentrations in water and sediment of Ekpan creek, Delta State, Nigeria (Oluowo et al., 2017) amongst others These studies mostly delved into the richness/abundance of species, water quality, heavy metal bioaccumulation, impact of oil spill and other anthropogenic activities on the forest and its resources, however, not much have been conducted with regards to climate change related issues on the forest ecosystem and consequences on the livelihood of the communities, except the work of Oluowo et al., (2017) which investigated the overall impact of climate change through temperature increase on heavy metals and sediment of the study area Recognizing this knowledge gap, the present study is designed to assess the local community’s knowledge

on the impact of climate change on Ekpan mangrove and on their livelihoods

1.2 Objectives

The overall aim of the study is to assess the knowledge of the local community on the impact of climate change using Ekpan community as a case study The study is to;

1 Evaluate the inhabitants’ awareness on the benefits of mangrove

2 Assess the knowledge and awareness level of the local people on climate variability/change and the impacts on their livelihoods

3 And finally, analyze some of the adaptive strategies employed by the community

to cope with some of these changes

1.3 Research questions

In line with the objectives, this study also addresses and answers the following research questions;

• Are the locals benefitting from the mangrove resources?

• Are they aware of climate change events and their impacts on mangrove ecosystem (s) and their livelihoods?

• What are their adaptation strategies?

• Is there any form of mangrove/forest management in place?

1.4 Significance of the study

The study will help to understand some of the impacts of climate variability on Ekpan community and their livelihood, and the available mangrove management option (s) Furthermore, the study result is expected to become a helpful management tool for government in policy formulation and livelihood provision for mangrove communities in Nigeria and climate change management

The study result will encourage conservation initiatives and other management options in mangrove areas in Nigeria Niger Delta as currently there is limited attention in this area

as compared to terrestrial forest land

This study also acknowledge the need for more in-depth assessment and scientific investigation by researchers, government, international aid organizations and NGO’s alike

of the impacts of climate change on mangroves

CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW

Climate change has the potential to affect all natural systems thereby making it a threat to human development and survival socially, politically and economically (Raymond &Victoria 2008) Human activities such as burning of coal, oil and natural gas exploration and exploitation, deforestation, industrialization and poor agricultural practices have been reported to severely alter the equilibrium and composition of the environment, thus contributing unwittingly to climate change These anthropogenic activities have led to an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of a number of greenhouse gases such as CO, CO2, and CH4, which have been reported to have both health and ecosystems implications (Christopher et al., 2006; Akinro et al., 2008; Ball et al., 1997)

Global climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing this century with reports of abnormal temperature rise and its attendant impacts on the ecosystem including man (IPCC, 2007) Although previous geological records has indicated climatic changes throughout history, human quest for development through industrialization has unwittingly increased the warming of the earth(IPCC 2007) with huge loss to mangrove areas and other ecosystem survival

According to Gilman et al., 2008, climate change components such as high water events storminess, precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, ocean circulation pattern, sea level rise, the health of functionally-linked neighboring ecosystem and human responses to climate change would have varying impacts on mangroves, which have been

attributed to the robustness and resilience of the system

Mangroves and their associated coastal systems perform numerous functions important to the sustenance of coastal communities and countries economic well-being Some of the services which could be direct or indirect support traditional practices such as sourcing for traditional medicines, fuel wood, building materials and natural dyes amongst others (Gilman et al., 2006, SPREP, 2009) including climate regulation In the course of

collecting these materials, several distortions are created to existing ecosystems which eventually affect the overall health of the mangroves

2.1 CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA

Climate change is an issue of global concern affecting countries in unique ways, whilst some experience drought others may experience flooding and other extreme weather events such as; storms and hurricanes (IPCC, 2007) This trend also varies within countries as most northern parts experience dryness whilst southern parts with coastal zones are faced with floods as is the case of Nigeria and other African countries In the light of this, countries are taking measures to better understand these trends in other to ensure safety of lives, properties, sustained livelihoods as well as to ensure food security

To this effect, governments sign treaties, enact laws and become party to several conventions all in efforts to get better frameworks to tackle this global challenge

Nigeria has in recent times made several moves to address this challenge by making laws and establishing formidable bodies within and outside the government to conduct research, provide data, analyze trends and give possible future projections and impact on several sectors in line with global scenarios One of such body is the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) charged with the responsibility to advise the Federal Government on all aspects of meteorology; project, prepare and interpret government policy in the field of meteorology; and to issue weather (and climate) forecasts for all relevant sectors of the economy for sustainable socio-economic activities in the country Since its establishment in 2003, NIMET has provided data on temperature, rainfall, on set

of growing season and cessation, little dry season (LDS) among others for the various regions in the country and their implication for all sectors through its monthly, quarterly and annual bulletins

NIMET in 2008 stated that from all indication and observations, Nigeria’s climate is already changing as they assessed the climate over the period of 1941 to 2000 which they observed some key changes as compared to previous periods They noted that during the period from 1971 to 2000 the combination of late onset and early cessation shortened (fig

2.1), which reduced the length of the rainy season in most parts of the country and between 1941 and 2000, annual rainfall decreased by 2-8 mm across most of the country, but increased by 2-4 mm in a few places especially the Niger Delta (NIMET, 2008)

(A)

(B)

(source: NIMET, 2008)

Fig.2.1 (A) Pattern of onset of rainfall (B) Pattern of cessation of rainfall

For temperature, there were substantial evidence of long-term temperature increase in most parts of the country from 1941 to 2000, the main exception was in the Jos area

where a slight cooling was recorded The most significant increases were recorded in the extreme northeast, extreme northwest and extreme southwest, where average temperatures rose by 1.4-1.9oC (NIMET, 2008)

There is increased awareness of climate variability and change in the country, as its potential to bring about damaging and irrecoverable effects on infrastructure, food production, livelihoods and water supplies, in addition to possible natural resource conflicts, makes it a critical challenge to any economy seeking sustainable growth The government realization of this fact saw its incorporation into the development agenda of the nation up till year 2020 (Nigeria Vision, 20:2020) and the establishment of a special climate change unit within the Federal ministry of Environment (FME) Huge support has also been given to several projects like the building of Nigeria’s response to climate change (BNRCC) project aimed at developing a National adaptation strategy and plan of action on climate change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN)

The BNRCC project was executed by two Canadian firms in partnership with the Nigeria Environmental study/action team (NEST) and funded by the Canadian international development agency (CIDA) To actualize a comprehensive action plan for the nation, this project made future climate change patterns using climate scenarios This was possible by commissioning the Climate Systems Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town to develop climate scenarios for Nigeria by employing empirical approach using the statistical downscaling method (BNRCC, 2011) Trends in the past climate over Nigeria were investigated by analyzing the historical climate records from 40 NIMET stations for the period 1971 to 2000 which was earlier stated; and future climate change information was generated by downscaling two future climate projections from nine Global Climate Models The two future climate projections were based on two scenarios known as A2 and B1, with A2 incorporating higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and B1 lower GHG emissions The higher global GHG emissions scenario (the A2 scenario) was selected as the strongest As per their analysis, the scenarios suggest a warmer climate in the future where the A2 scenario projects a temperature increase of 0.04oC per year until year 2046-2065 (fig 2.2), rising to 0.08oC per year after 2050

However, they acknowledged regional variations to occur, with the highest increase (4.5oC by 2081-2100) projected in the northeast

(Source: NIMET, 2008)

Fig.2.2 Projected increase in maximum daily temperature across Nigeria (presented

in o C relative to the present day climate)

The projection for changes in rainfall also varied across the country, with the A2 scenario suggesting a wetter climate in the south, as a result of increased evaporation from the ocean leading to rainfall once all conditions necessary to trigger precipitation are intact, but a drier climate in the northeast For the period 2046-2065, the projected change ranges from an average increase of 0.4 mm per day in the south (15 cm annually) to an average decrease of 0.2 mm per day (7.5 cm annually) in the north (fig 2.3)

(Source: NIMET, 2008)

Fig 2.4 Projected length of the rainy season by zone

The number of extreme heat days and heat waves is bound to increase (fig 2.5) with temperature reaching 38oC or more increasing to 7 days per year in the mangrove, 23 days per year in rain forest, 41 days per year in tall grass savanna, and 88 days per year in the short grass savanna

With regards to sea level rise, as per the expected changes in temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events noted above and summarized in table 2.1, this will be an issue especially in the coastal parts of the country According to the IPCC projection, sea levels will rise as a result of increasing global temperatures via a number of mechanisms, including thermal expansion of water (IPCC, 2007) The global average rate of sea level rise during the period 1993 to 2003 was about 3.1 mm per year and is expected to

continue, possibly with increases between 18 and 59 cm by the end of this century (IPCC, 2007) If considering this from the upper end of the scale, large areas of Nigeria’s coast hosting the mangrove areas which is of major concern to this study will be significantly exposed to increased erosion, storm damage, inundation in low lying areas, among other impacts

These incidences are already occurring in the Niger Delta (Okon and Ekpan,1999; Uyigue and Agho 2007; Amadi and Ogonor, 2015) and are bound to worsen as the

Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST) warned in a report in 2004 that the sea level rise and repeated ocean surges will not only worsen the problems of coastal erosion that is already a menace in the Niger Delta region but associated inundation will increase problems of floods, intrusion of sea-water into fresh water sources and

ecosystems destroying such stabilizing systems such as mangrove leading to loss of viable agricultural lands, fisheries and general livelihoods

Table 2.1 Summary of key trends in climate parameters for Nigeria, by ecological zone

(Source: BNRCC, 2011)

Table 2.1 depicts key trends in climate parameters for Nigeria in its various ecological zones The table illustrates key climatic variables and the extent to which these variables are increasing or decreasing over a period of time in respective ecological zones

2.2 Vulnerability of mangroves to climate change

2.2.1 Changes in temperature

Temperature is believed to be the main controlling factor for mangrove distribution, especially those extending into the latitudinal limits of 32oN and 40oS have a limited area (Stuart et al., 2007) Apart from distribution, temperature also determines productivity of mangroves through two key productivity controlling processes; photosynthetic carbon gain and respiration, processes which are highly sensitive to temperature changes It is believed that in most tropical climate, photosynthesis is limited

by high mid-day leaf temperatures resulting in stomatal closure due to higher vapour pressure deficit between the leaves and air (Clough & Sim 1989, Cheeseman 1994, Cheeseman et al., 1997) Contrarily in the southern latitudes, photosynthesis is limited by low temperatures Worthy of note in the present study is the fact that, the effect of

primary production is likely to be strongly influenced by other climate change and environmental factors that influence stomatal aperture and photosynthetic rates (e.g., rainfall, humidity, and nutrient availability)

Plant and soil biochemical processes are affected by increases in water and air temperatures as the respiratory rate of plant and animal communities in the sediment approximately doubles with every 10oC increase in temperature (Davidson & Janssens 2006) So also, a predicted 2oC increase in temperature will result into an approximate 20 percent increase in the respiratory rate of plant and soil organisms, thereby reducing the net carbon gain, increased methane emissions and decreased soil carbon storage (Davidson & Janssens 2006), in the process

Several authors believe that an increase in temperature might have an overall positive effect on mangroves globally (Ellison, 2000; Field, 1995; Gilman et al., 2008), because they are naturally well adapted to daily fluctuations in water and atmospheric temperature, especially in the tropical pacific where seasonal temperatures varies little, they are likely to adapt to temperature changes Unfortunately, the impact of climate change is however not limited to changes in temperature alone but includes other associated impacts with negative effects

Summarily, the overall impact of any increase in surface temperature on mangroves, the works of Field (1995) and Ellison (2000), highlighted the impacts on changing species composition, phenological patterns, for example timing of flowering and fruiting, increase in mangrove productivity where temperature however, within their temperature threshold As well as expanding mangrove range into higher latitudes where they are limited by temperature but not limited by other factors such as supply of propagules or suitable physiographic conditions

2.2.2 Changes in atmospheric chemistry

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere had risen considerably from the

pre-industrial concentration of 350ppm to around 370 ppm (Houghton et al., 2001) And even more in the nearest future as predicted by Solomon et al., (2007) with the increase fossil fuel use

Carbon dioxide is the substrate for photosynthesis and reported to influence respiration, as

a result of these key physiological processes sensitivity to elevated Co2, primary production in plant communities are highly sensitive to atmospheric concentrations (Drake et al., 1996, Farnsworth et al., 1996, Ball et al., 1997, Drake et al., 1999)

Although, increasing levels of CO2 are expected to enhance photosynthesis and mangrove growth rates (UNEP, 1994), which have been demonstrated by Ball et al., (1997) on two

Australian species of Rhizophora stylosa and Rhizophora apiculata however under lower salinity, and Farnsworth et al., (1996) with Rhizophora mangle observed a significant

increase in biomass, total stem length, branching activity and total leaf area

While this seems beneficial for mangrove growth, CO2 remains a Greenhouse gas

In fact, worrisome conditions and detrimental effect on the aquatic and marine life has been documented extensively Feely et al., (2004) opined that, the continuous introduction

of atmospheric CO2 into water bodies is expected to substantially decrease the pH of such water bodies and resultantly, change the saturation horizons of aragonite, calcite, and other minerals essential to calcifying organisms

2.2.3 Changes in Ultraviolet radiation (UV)

Ultraviolet Beta (UVB) radiation is damaging to proteins and nucleotides, thus, an enhanced level can lead to damage in plant tissues Mangroves have a suite of pigments that absorb UVB radiation within their leaves which is likely due to their evolution in tropical latitudes where UVB radiation levels are high (Lovelock et al., 1992) The impacts of this enhanced UVB radiation have been observed to affect plants in temperate regions, for example, a slight reduction in photosynthetic rates and morphological alteration (Caldwell et al., 2003)

2.2.4 Sea level rise

Mangrove thrives in tidal environment where the need for adaptation to changes in sea-level over long timescales is the rule rather than exception According to Solomon et al., (2007), global sea-level rise is a more certain outcome of global warming, which is already taking place with an estimated 12-22cm occurrence in the 20th century

Globally, the rate of sea level rise was estimated to be around 1.7 mm/yr over most of the

20th century, however the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4), using the same range for

CO2 emission scenario, the rate was projected to range between 0.18-0.59 m (an average

of 3.8mm/yr), by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, 2007) In recent studies, researchers opined that these projections were very conservative, suggesting SLR of 1m (Hansen et al., 2011, Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009) and possibly 2m after 2100 for every degree of warming (Levermann et al., 2013)

Mangroves are known to have historically adapted to fluctuations in sea level (Alongi,

2008, Erwin, 2009, Fiu et al., 2010), however, their capacity to continually do so, especially under current human-induced stresses such as urbanization, pollution and overharvesting, is less certain

There are several assertions that mangroves are especially vulnerable to sea level rise (Field, 1995; Lovelock and Ellison, 2007) The ability of mangroves to successfully adapt

to changing sea-levels depends on the accretion rate relative to the rate of sea-level rise, and more vulnerable if the rate of change in elevation of the mangrove sediment surface is exceeded by the rate of change in the relative sea level (Gilman et al., 2008) However, Udofa and Fajemirokun (1978) have reported a rise in sea level of the Nigerian coastal waters to about 0.462 m

Few experimental studies, for example the work of Ellison and Farnsworth, 1997 and He

et al., 2007 examine the potential effect of changing sea levels on mangroves and revealed

a possible difference in growth rate in sea level rise/fall situations, and a varying tolerance levels among mangrove species The authors suspect a possible and whole forest changes

in community composition in relation to sea-level rise (Alongi, 2008)

2.2.5 Physical disturbances-tropical storm

Mangroves have an important role in protecting coasts from storm and tsunami damage (Massel et al., 1999; Smith et al., 1994; Mazda et al., 2002; Dahdouh-Guebas et al., 2005, Danielsen et al., 2005) Storms can have a large impact on mangroves, with reported catastrophic destruction in the Caribbean and Bangladesh (Smith et al., 1994, Mastaller 1996, Cahoon et al., 2003), which often recover very slowly (Sherman et al.,

2001, Piou et al., 2006), or none at all (Cahoon et al., 2003) Intense storm can strongly

influence surface elevation of wetlands through erosion, deposition, and subsurface processes that can subsequently influence rates of recovery (Cahoon, 2006)

Frequent storm surge and heights have been predicted to increase if the frequency

of strong winds and low pressure increases The increase in storm intensity and frequency has potential to increase damages to mangroves through defoliation and tree mortality and also cause stress and sulfide soil toxicity (Smith et al., 1994; Cahoon and Hensel, 2006) While an area already suffering from mass tree mortality with little survival of saplings and trees might experience permanent ecosystem conversion, as recovery through seedling recruitment might not occur due to the change in hydrology (Cahoon et al., 2003)

The data from the Caribbean incident shows the ability of mangroves to recover from severe storm damages provided the reproductive patches of the trees are not destroyed, as well as the hydrology and sediments not altered to an extent where reestablishment is prevented (Smith et al., 1994, Ellison 1998, Sherman 2001)

2.2.6 Rainfall and river flood plumes

Mangrove diversity is largely the function of the rainfall patterns, their abundance

in terms of composition, diversity and productivity of species are in areas with higher rainfall, due to the extractive benefits from the fluvial runoff of sedimentation and nutrient supply (Lovelock et al., 2007; Ball 1998)

Rainfall releases freshwater thereby reducing salinity level, however will increase the water content of the soil, thus will wash off sediments and nutrients which are required for plants physiological function (Smith and Duke 1987, Ball 1998) Rainfall is also known to influence groundwater inputs, which is important for the maintenance of soil surface- water elevation through subsurface swelling of soils (Whelan et al., 2005, Rogers

et al., 2005), nevertheless will result into inundation of the soil over time

According to Davies and Eyre 2005, sediment delivery to estuaries co-varies with rainfall, and the quantity can be influenced by human development of the catchment (Furnas 2003) Sedimentation is an important process for mangroves, as it is seen to increase the surface elevation of the soil relative to sea level as well as increasing viable habitats for mangrove colonization In addition to the increasing soil surface elevation, delivery of sediments has a direct positive effect on plant growth (Pezeshki et al., 1992,

Hemminga et al., 1994, Ellis et al 2004, Lovelock et al., 2007), however excessive amount of sediments can lead to reduced diversity of fauna (Ellis et al., 2004), and tree mortality (Ellison 1998) In other words, increases in the frequency of intense rainfall combined with land use change in catchments will increase sedimentation events and noted to result in forest losses (Ellison 1998)

In contrast, where there is reduced rainfall, productivity, diversity, and the area of wetlands will decline with possible increases in the area of salt flats (Smith and Duke 1987)

2.2.7 Changes in ocean circulation

Changes in oceanic circulation patterns may influence mangroves propagule dispersal due to its dependence on the water body for this purpose Aside propagule dispersal it can also affect the genetic structure of mangrove populations, with concomitant effects on mangrove community structure (Duke et al., 1998; Benzie, 1999; Lovelock and Ellison, 2007)

Although, key oceanic water masses are changing, the intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) has reported that there were no clear evidences of ocean circulation changes at the moment (Bindoff et al., 2007), however there are indication of long term changes in global and basin-scale ocean heat content and salinity which have been linked to changes in ocean circulation (Gregory et al., 2005; Bindoff et al., 2007) 2.3 Combined effect of different influences

Asserting the cause of climate change today has remained a complex issue, unlike

in a controlled experiment where only one variable changes per time Climate change is caused by several factors which includes rising temperature, atmospheric CO2, precipitation, sea level rise which have been discussed This complex interactions and feedbacks influences the conditions of mangrove ecosystem (Gilman et al., 2008, Smith et al., 1994, Field 1995 Ellison 2000)

This combined effect influence of temperature and Sea level rise (SLR) changes the aquatic environment for resident plants and animals While temperature increase soil salinity by increasing evaporation, SLR increases flooding, thereby flush away salts

(nutrients) It is difficult to predict the exact result of these interactions because it is amount and level specific

Another example is the positive influence of CO2 on photosynthesis, but when combined with further increase in temperature or decrease in precipitation and resultantly increases water stress, thereby preventing the benefit to the plant by forcing it to close its stomata to prevent further water loss

The uncertainty of the exact extent of future changes on one hand, makes it impossible to predict the exact effects of climate change on mangroves, while on the other hand, the variability that exists from region to region of the influence of these parameters

2.4 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COMMUNITIES AND THEIR LIVELIHOODS

Climate change and global warming have been established both scientifically and quantitatively to impact on natural systems, humans, their communities and livelihoods Mangroves and coastal ecosystems alike provide essential goods and services which contribute to the overall wellbeing of the local and national economy However, mangroves are threatened globally by human interference with the environment, which has degraded along with other environmental changes

Climate change is a massive threat to human development and in some places, it is already undermining the achievements of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and the international community’s efforts to reduce extreme poverty (Amadi and Ogonor, 2014) For instance, more than 70% of the inhabitants of the pacific islands live in the coastal zones (SPREP, 2012), and the impact of climate change is already taking a toll on many of these communities, including Africa and Nigeria is not an exception

The most immediate impact on community livelihoods will be food security Saltwater intrusion into coastal soils and groundwater sources could severely reduce the yield of crops and food trees The projected rise in atmospheric and sea surface temperature could increase heat stress on mangroves and near-shore marine food supply and also reduce

their yield These will all lead to local food shortage, especially marine products, which is

a significant dietary contributor in most coastal communities

Subsistence farmers and fishermen in the coastal communities often supplement their household income by selling excess catch and crops There is also likely to be a loss in income when crop yield reduce Nunn (2013) estimated that marine food supplies in many pacific coastal communities would no longer have the capacity to meet local demands for food by the 21st century, and they are unlikely to have the financial means to purchase food regularly from shops at a higher cost

Furthermore, communities that depend on groundwater sources for fresh water, will have additional burden to bear through salt intrusion which will reduce the overall quality for human consumption with significant health implications (Lal et al., 2009) Naturally, the population of species to a large extent dependent on mangroves, will decrease, thus result to huge fisheries loss in many places Other ecosystem services, such

as protection from tsunamis and storm surges, prevention of erosion, filtering of terrestrial runoff will either be reduced or lost as well

2.5 ADAPTATION

Adaptation is understood to include efforts to adjust to ongoing and potential effects of climate change (Mani et al., 2008) Within the context of climate change, adaptation includes the actions people take in response to, or in anticipation of changing climate conditions in order to reduce adverse impacts or take advantage of any opportunities that may arise

Mangroves have a variety of key features that contribute to their resilience to disturbances, whether acute storms or age long changes in climate (Alongi, 2007) Some

of these characteristics includes possessing a large reservoir of below-ground nutrients that serve to replenish nutrient losses, rapid rates of nutrient flux and microbial decomposition that facilitate rapid biotic turnover, complex and highly efficient biotic controls (e.g high rates of water-use and nutrient–use efficiency) allow predominantly

internal reuse of resources to augmented recovery, self-design and simple architecture that lead to rapid reconstruction and rehabilitation post-disturbance , despite different species composition; redundancy of keystone species, or species legacies, which can lead to restoration and recovery of key forest functions and structure; and positive and negative feedback pathways that provide malleability to help dampen oscillations during recovery

to a more stable, persistent state

On the part of the inhabitants, they cope with climate change effect by most of them changing occupation, especially those whose livelihood once depended on the natural sector such as farming and fishing Many are now traders dealing on different kind

of goods as only few works in the civil service, and even fewer ones are employed by the multinational oil companies operating in the area This change in livelihood according to CREDC (2009) has led to rural-urban migration which has affected the workforce and thereby affecting agricultural production in some places

In an attempt for coastal communities to cope with flooding, they construct pedestrian bridges from locally sourced wood and sometime heaping sand, just to help them get to other parts of the community to enable them carry out their daily activities Meanwhile, farmers cope with changes in rainfall pattern by delay in time of planting, and also use of fast maturing varieties especially maize (CREDC, 2009; Field survey)

2.6 STATUS OF NIGER-DELTA MANGROVES

Mangroves are of considerable economic and ecological importance not only indirectly because of their contribution to the stability of otherwise relatively fragile brackish water habitats, but also directly as a source of firewood, potential industrial fibres and chemical dyes

Majority of the people living in the Niger-Delta are farmers, the environmental and social consequences of climate change is putting livelihoods at serious risks coupled with human impact and lack of proper management systems which is an important but difficult problem in Nigeria Conservation of the Niger Delta mangrove forest is of utmost importance which is one of the most extensive and highly developed in West Africa In

countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Seychelles and Sierra Leone aggressive mangrove rehabilitation projects are ongoing but Nigeria has not extensively focused on mangroves but has substantial programs towards protection of terrestrial ecosystems as evidenced by fully functional national parks (Nwosu & Holzlohner, 2016)

The mangrove forest occurs in varying degrees of development and concentration all along the Nigerian coastal areas It attains maximum development and concentration in the Niger Delta brackish water area Over 60% of fish caught in the seas of West Africa breed in the mangroves of the Niger Delta (World Rainforest Movement, 2010)

The Niger Delta mangrove forest is characterized by the dominance of a small number of

species belonging to the two major genera-Rhizophora and Avicennia, with the Rhizophoras (red mangrove) of the Rhizophora racemose the commonest species, it can

attain a height of 45m under favourable conditions (Nielson, 1965) As a pioneer species,

its seedlings readily colonize newly deposited mud Rhizophora harrisonii, which is a

smaller tree, occupies slightly higher and drier ground In addition to the red mangroves,

there is also the white mangrove (Avicennia africana) which is less common and occupies

higher ground than the red mangroves

The degree of threat posed by climate change, through global warming is still uncertain coupled with the spate of anthropogenic activities, for example uncontrolled logging, oil & gas exploration and exploitation in this region, put together will exacerbate the natural impacts of climate change, which can result in huge loss of mangrove areas and community livelihoods In fact, Giri et al., (2011) recently estimated the Nigerian mangroves a little above 7,000 km2 using the landsat satellite imagery

CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Study Area

Nigeria’s Niger Delta (fig.3.2) covers a spatial extent of 75,000km2, it’s the largest Delta in African and consists of a vast sedimentary basin derived from the natural Delta

of the River Niger (James et al., 2013) The Niger Delta area is an important geopolitical, ecological and economically sensitive region with huge contribution to Nigeria’s GDP, specifically through oil and gas with an estimated population of 30 million (NPC 2009) And majority of the people living in rural fishing and farming communities The region due to its geological formation and location has the potential to boost the agricultural earnings and aquaculture /fisheries drive of the federal government, however still underdeveloped, nonetheless, its huge hydrocarbon deposits contribute around 2.4 million barrels per day accounting for over 90% of foreign exchange earnings

Beside the huge hydrocarbon deposits in the Niger Delta, this region also possesses a vast geographic spread of mangrove vegetation, represented by five plant species and one

introduced family of exotic species The endemic families are Rhizophoraceae family (red mangrove), consisting of Rhizophora racemose, R harrisonii and R mangle species; the Avecinniaceae family (white mangrove) made up of Avecinnia africana species; and Combretaceae family consisting of Laguncularia racemose species The Acaceae (palmaceae) is the only introduced family consisting of Nypa fruitican exotic species

(James et al., 2013, Abere and Ekeke 2011)

(Source: Ogba and Utang, 2010)

Fig.3.1 Map of the Niger Delta showing salinity limits/vegetation of the coastal zone

Nigeria’s Niger Delta mangrove forest is situated along the Gulf of Guinea covering about 105,000 hectares (Abere & Ekeke, 2011), spanning across seven (7) states, namely Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross Rivers, Delta, Edo, Ondo and Rivers, with approximately 80% of the vegetation found in Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers states (Worldbank 1995) It receives an annual rainfall ranging from 3000 to 4500mm (Mmom and Arokoyu, 2010) The mangrove in the region is shielded from the sea unlike in some African countries where they are directly exposed to sea water (NDES, 1997)

Plant products makes up a great amount of the goods extracted from the mangrove ecosystem these areas both in the subsistence and commercial levels (Hamilton & Snedaker 1984; James et al., 2013) some of them are fuel wood, charcoal, timber material for building, wood chips for stacking fish, salt, tannins, dyes and food (Hamilton & Snedaker 1984; Saenger 2002; James et al., 2013) which has become a major source of livelihood for most coastal inhabitants

3.2 Study site

The study was conducted at Ekpan community, Delta state hosting the Ekpan mangrove creek It is geographically located within 5° 3’5.11”N 5° 40’44.11”E with altitude 13.5 – 17.5 m and about 12km in length, and is characterized by high relative humidity (80-92%) and two distinct seasons the dry and wet season receiving rainfall well above 2800mm (Oluowo and Isibor, 2016)

Ekpan community has about 188,728 people (NPC, 2010) and characterized by the presence of boat fabrication/maintenance yards, oil and gas exploration/refining activities, wood logging and saw mills, fishing, aquaculture, farming, sand mining and various artisanal, business and trading outlets

3.3 Research instrument/Design

For the purpose of the research, a framework was designed (fig 3.1) to capture three (3) important areas; climate change, mangrove forest and community livelihood With climate change at the center, the study attempted to link the mangrove components to the study focus, while capturing the awareness of the local community on climate variability/change, impact on the mangroves and their consequentiality on livelihood and community in general

Primary Data Sec Data

-Questionnaire -Archives -Interview -Articles -FGD

Climate change

MANGROVE HEALTH

SOLUTION / RECOMMENDATIONS

Figure 3.2 conceptual frameworks for the study

Figure 3.2 shows the approach and methodology used in gathering data from the study area The figure shows how informants’ awareness and knowledge on benefits of mangroves impact on livelihoods of the people It delves into level of awareness and knowledge on climate change events in the area and how they impact on the health of mangroves and the people in the area as well as initiated adaptation measures to regulate climate events

3.3.1 Data collection

Data was obtained by employing a qualitative research method; the primary data was sourced using a well-structured questionnaire covering knowledge, livelihood, adaptation and management designed and administered to one hundred (100) respondents interviewed without religious, gender, social and economic bias The technique used for sampling was purposive and convenient to ensure the members of the groups are well

above a certain age so as to provide the relevant information due to length of stay in the community, knowledge, occupation, social status as well education status

The survey questionnaire contained 27 questions covering their awareness of changing climate, observed changes in the mangrove ecosystem, impact on their livelihood, existence of any form of forest management, institutional support in cases of natural disasters such as flooding Oral interviews (key informant) interviews were conducted with few targeted individuals like the representative of the traditional ruler, youth leader, women head, civil servants (teachers) and other well informed inhabitants to provide relevant information with regards to variability in weather patterns owing to their experiences over time, due to their age and status in the community

While a focus group discussion/open forum was organized to have a direct discussion with representative groups of the community; to provide better insight into their livelihood challenges, how they have adapted their daily lives to changes in weather pattern and incessant flooding, institutions and government bodies who gives support and

in what ways they can be better assisted to increase adaptation and or, resilience

While the secondary data for the study was obtained from gazette documents, archives or government documents on this topic (NEMA, NIMET and so on)

3.3.2 Data analysis

The data collected was subjected to descriptive statistical analysis The data obtained was collated, simplified into frequency, percentages to explain the variables and their occurrences among the population The Microsoft-Excel 2007 package was used to

analyze and present the data in charts and graphs

3.3.3 Limitation of study

The study was carried out in Ekpan community and the major limitations to this study are:

i The partial tension in the community discouraging gathering of a large group due

to fear of being attacked if mistaken for a political gathering especially during the FGD This also affected access to some elite members of the community whom were unable to make themselves available during interviews and the FGD

ii Finance was also not adequate to meet the request of most participants as it is like

a norm for community dwellers asking for certain amounts of money or gift items before providing information and as a little compensation for leaving their businesses or work This became difficult after paying so much on transportation for my team and me for about a week during consultations, observations and actual sampling

iii Time was very constraining as we could not delve into some other aspects which would have been relevant