Sustainable livelihoods and adaptation to climate change a study of coastal communities in nha trang city, viet nam

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY MAI THI CAM HUYEN SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN NHA TRANG CITY,

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

MAI THI CAM HUYEN

SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS AND ADAPTATION TO

CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY OF COASTAL

COMMUNITIES IN NHA TRANG CITY, VIET NAM

MASTER THESIS

KHANH HOA – 2018

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

MAI THI CAM HUYEN

SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS AND ADAPTATION TO

CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY OF COASTAL

COMMUNITIES IN NHA TRANG CITY, VIET NAM

MASTER THESIS

Climate Change Code:

Topic allocation Decision 1006/QĐ-ĐHNT dated 10/10/2017 Decision on establishing the Committee:

Defense date:

Supervisors:

1: PROF PETER ARBO

2: PROF NGUYEN THI KIM ANH

Chairman of Committee:

Dr LE KIM LONG

Faculty of Graduate Studies:

KHANH HOA – 2018

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UNDERTAKING

I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Sustainable livelihoods and adaptation to climate change: a study of coastal communities in Nha Trang City, Viet Nam” is my

own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time

this thesis is submitted

Khanh Hoa, June 25, 2018

Author

Mai Thi Cam Huyen

I also would like to acknowledge and thank to Norhed program, University of Nha Trang and Tromso as well as Prof Nguyen Thi Kim Anh for giving me the opportunity to study Marine Ecosystem Management and Climate Change

Last but not the least, I would like to thank the leaders of POU university where I am working for giving the chance, time as well as motivation to finish my master course and my family, friends for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

UNDERTAKING iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS v

LIST OFABBREVIATIONS viii

LIST OF TABLES ix

ABSTRACT xii

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Thesis objectives and research questions 2

1.2.1 Thesis objective 2

1.2.1.1 General objective 2

1.2.1.2 Specific objectives 3

1.2.2 Research questions 3

1.3 Subject and scope of study 3

1.3.1 Research subject 3

1.3.2 Scope of the study 4

1.4 Structure of the thesis 5

CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS 6

2.1 Climate change 6

2.1.1 Concepts related to climate change 6

2.1.2 The situation of climate change in the world 7

2.1.3 The situation of climate change in Viet Nam 7

2.2 Sustainable livelihoods 9

2.2.1 Sustainable livelihoods framework 10

2.2.2 Typical sustainable livelihoods frameworks 12

2.3 Sustainable livelihoods and climate change 15

2.3.1 Sustainable livelihood framework and climate change 15

2.3.2 Impacts of climate change to coastal livelihoods 16

2.3.3 Adaptability of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change 17

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2.3.4 Support livelihoods to adapt to climate change 19

CHAPTER 3: METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING 20

3.1 Method of data collection 20

3.1.1 Primary data 20

3.1.1.1 Focus group discussion 20

3.1.1.2 Household survey 21

3.1.2 Secondary data 21

3.2 Data processing methods 22

3.3 Sample 24

CHAPTER 4: BACKGROUND INFORMATION OF THE STUDY AREA 25

4.1 Khanh Hoa province 25

4.1.1 Geographical features 25

4.1.2 Climate 25

4.1.3 Population characteristics 26

4.1.4 Current status of coastal household livelihoods in Khanh Hoa province 26

4.2 Current status of coastal household livelihoods in the two study areas 30

4.2.1 Vinh Luong ward 30

4.2.1.1 Geographic location 30

4.2.1.2 Livelihood resources 31

4.2.1.3 Livelihood activities 33

4.2.1.4 Livelihood outcome 34

4.2.1.5 The status of basic social services 35

4.2.2 Vinh Nguyen ward 35

4.2.2.1 Geographic location 35

4.2.2.2 Livelihood resource 36

4.2.2.3 Livelihood activities 38

4.2.2.4 Livelihood outcome 39

4.2.2.5 The status of basic social services 40

CHAPTER 5: CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 42

5.1 Climate change on coastal households in Nha Trang city 42

5.1.1 Temperature 42

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5.1.2 Rainfall 43

5.1.3 Floods 45

5.1.4 Drought 46

5.1.5 Salinity intrusion 46

5.1.6 Sea rise level 46

5.1.7 Other types of natural disasters 47

5.1.8 Possible impacts of climate change to coastal households in Khanh Hoa province 47

5.2 Climate change and climate change impacts in the two study areas 49

5.2.1 Affected household livelihood resources 50

5.2.2 Affected livelihood activities 51

5.2.3 Affected livelihood outcomes 53

5.3 Analyzing adaptive capacity of coastal household livelihoods to the impacts of climate change 54

5.3.1 Livelihoods of aquaculture 54

5.3.2 Livelihoods of capture fisheries 55

5.4 Adaptation measure to the impacts of climate change 56

5.4.1 Adaptation activities in fishing 56

5.4.2 Adaptation activities in aquaculture 58

5.4.3 Demand for the forms of State support 59

5.4.4 Discussion on household-level and community-level adaptation activities to the current climate change 61

5.4.4.1 Aquaculture Group 61

5.4.4.2 Fishing Group 62

5.4.4.3 Discussion on local and state support and some sustainable livelihoods in the context of climate change 62

CHAPTER 6: SOME POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO SUPPORT LIVELIHOODS IN ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN NHA TRANG CITY, KHANH HOA PROVINCE 65

CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION 68

REFERENCE 71

APPENDIX: QUESTIONAIRE 75

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LIST OFABBREVIATIONS

UNDP : United Nations Development Programme

MONRE : Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

DFID : Department for International Development

IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

MARD : Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

ADB : Asian Development Bank

IMM : Integrated Marine Management

SLF : Sustainable livelihoods framework

CARE : Cooperative for Assistance and Relief Everywhere

DANIDA : Danish International Development Agency

IMOLA : Integrated Management of Lagoon Activities

CV : Cheval Vapeur in French equal to Horse Power in English

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1: Impacts of climate change coastal livelihoods 17

Table 2.2: Some measures to adapt to climate change by sector 18

Table 3.1: The analytical framework 20

Table 4.1: Average temperature and rainfall in Khanh Hoa province 25

Table 4.2: Agricultural land area 27

Table 4.3: Number of employees working in Khanh Hoa province 28

Table 4.4: Access to information in Nha Trang city 28

Table 4.5: Numbers of laborers by livelihood activity 29

Table 4.6: Average income per capita/a month in Khanh Hoa province 29

Table 4.7: Unemployment rate in Khanh Hoa 30

Table 4.8: The poverty rate 30

Table 4.9: Socio-demographic characteristics of household members surveyed in Vinh Luong commune 32

Table 4.10.: Assessment of respondents on income changes over the past five years in Vinh Luong commune 34

Table 4.11: Socio-demographic characteristics of household members surveyed in Vinh Nguyen ward 37

Table 4.12 Number of fishing boats, aquaculture rafts and catch and aquaculture output 39

Table 4.13.: Assessment of respondents on income changes over the past five years in Vinh Nguyen ward 39

Table 5.1: Annual average temperature in Nha Trang (1978 - 2015) 42

Table 5.2: Average annual rainfall of the areas in each period 43

Table 5.3: Rainfall in 2020 under the average emission scenario (B2) 44

Table 5.4: Tropical cyclones and storms hit Khanh Hoa and neighboring provinces 44

Table 5.6: The impact of climate change on people's lives in two coastal areas, Nha Trang city 49

Table 5.7: Household livelihood resources affected by storms and floods in two coastal areas, Nha Trang city 50

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Table 5.8: Livelihoods activities affected by storms and floods in two coastal

communities, Nha Trang province 51

Table 5.9: Results of livelihood outcome affected by floods and storms in two coastal communities, Nha Trang city 54

Table 5.10: Adaptation in capture fisheries 57

Table 5.11: Adaptation in aquaculture 58

Table 5.12: Demand for the Forms of State Support 60

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1: The map of Nha Trang city 4

Figure 2.1: Sustainable rural livelihoods framework (Source: Scoones, 1998) 13

Figure 2.2: Sustainable livelihoods frame 14

Figure 2.3: Sustainable coastal livelihoods framework 14

Figure 5.1: Annual average temperature in Nha Trang (1978 - 2015) 42

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ABSTRACT

Climate change has become a great concern in the world in general and Viet Nam

in particular Floods and storms has had bad impacts on coastal household livelihoods, especially aquaculture and fishing activities, which depend on resources adversely impacted by extreme variations Therefore, adaptive activities play a key role in minimizing effects of climate change, enhancing resistance to climate change and creating sustainable livelihoods This thesis investigates current and possible risks of climate change on coastal households and adaptation capacity of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change at household level in two representative coastal areas in Nha Trang city The study is based on a survey, interviews and discussions among households in Vinh Nguyen ward and Vinh Luong commune, Nha Trang City The findings of the survey show that floods and storms has had severe impacts on local aquaculture and fishing households Another finding is that fishing and aquaculture households have used passive measures to adapt to the impacts of these extreme weather events Finally, the results show that state and relevant agencies have provided institutional and policy supports to local households to help them in coping with the effects of extreme variations

Key words: Floods and storms, coastal fishing and aquaculture households,

livelihood, risks, adaptation

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction

Climate change, especially global warming and sea level rise, is one of the largest challenges to mankind in the twenty-first century and a threat to the sustainable development of all countries in the world, especially to the developing countries (Nhung, 2016) “The Earth’s climate has been changing already and failure to limit warming to below 2°C could make the changes in the climate system irreversible and characterized by cataclysmic consequen ces. The adverse impacts such as drought, sea level rise and more erratic storms continue to overly burden the poorest and the most vulnerable, especially poor women and

bring risks to their livelihoods and lives” (UNDP, 2017)

Viet Nam's territory runs along the east coast of the Indochinese peninsula, Southeast Asia According to UNDP (2010), Viet Nam is one of the five leading countries in the world most vulnerable to climate change and is frequently exposed to natural disasters So Viet Nam is seriously affected by climate extremes and climate variability In the last 50 years, the average temperature has increased by 2-3°C and the sea level has increased by about 20cm It is predicted that by the end of the 21st century, according to the high emission scenarios, the average temperature in Viet Nam could increase by 2.5 - 3.7°C and the sea level could rise by 78-95cm (MONRE, 2012) If the Earth's temperature rises by 2°C, about 22 million Vietnamese will lose their homes and 45% of agricultural land in the Mekong Delta will be submerged in seawater (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007)

Khanh Hoa is a province in the South Central Coast of Viet Nam with a long coast along the water's edge and many canals, lagoons, bays, about 200 large and small islands and many beautiful beaches (http://www.khanhhoa.gov.vn) The main livelihoods in the coastal communities of the Khanh Hoa province are agricultural production (cultivation, husbandry, salt making) and fisheries (capture and aquaculture) These livelihoods are increasingly threatened by climate change For recent years, the rainfall in Khanh Hoa has been erratic and fluctuating and the temperature has become higher and higher The frequency and magnitude of strong storms and floods have increased sharply in number causing serious socio-economic

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damage, destroying the natural environment and threatening the lives of people From

1999 to 2009, 83 people died and economic losses were about 450 billion VND (Steering Committee for Storm and Flood Control, 2010) Therefore, to determine the impacts of climate change on coastal livelihoods and to build sustainable livelihoods adapting to climate change is an urgent need nowadays in the context of increasingly abnormal climate in coastal areas in general and coastal areas in Khanh Hoa province

in particular

According to the 2014 Vietnamese report on the average emission scenario (scenario B2) in 2050, the annual average temperature will increase by 2 to 3°C, the rainfall by 2-7%, the sea level by 57-73cm and 20,829 km2 will be flooded In scenario A1F1, the flooded area will be about 21,109 km2 Water resources will become scarce due to salinity intrusion and drought The changing habitat conditions will change the distribution of organisms and reduce yields The quality of seafood products will also be difficult to achieve as it is today The climate change impacts will increase the cost of new construction and repair of infrastructure and affect people's livelihoods (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Khanh Hoa Province, 2014)

This research project is implemented to determine the livelihood status of coastal households in Vinh Nguyen ward and Vinh Luong commune, Nha Trang city, to identify the current and possible future impacts of climate change on coastal households and to assess adaptive capacity and relevant actions for different livelihood groups of coastal households in these two study areas Based on the research results, the author will help the local leaders and managers identify strategies and measures that can secure sustainable livelihoods based on local capacity and overall government policy in Nha Trang City and in Khanh Hoa Province

1.2 Thesis objectives and research questions

1.2.1 Thesis objective

1.2.1.1 General objective

Based on the sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF) applied to households in the context of climate change impacts, the research aims to support Khanh Hoa

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province to understand and know better the risks associated with climate change, propose sustainable livelihoods adaption to climate change based on local capacity and policy orientation of the State

- To assess adaptive capacity and relevant actions for different livelihood groups

of coastal households in Nha Trang city, Khanh Hoa province

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activities, livelihood outcomes, risks and adaptability to the impact of climate change and forms of livelihood support

1.3.2 Scope of the study

Vinh Nguyen ward and Vinh Luong commune of Nha Trang city are chosen as research cases of the master thesis because the main livelihoods of these two study

areas are vulnerable due to climate change

Figure 1.1: The map of Nha Trang city

(Source: https://www.google.com.vn/search?q=bản+đồ+nha+trang&source) The author conducted a number of household surveys in Vinh Nguyen ward and Vinh Luong commune of Nha Trang city, Khanh Hoa province The household surveys were conducted in 2017 and the effects of climate change on coastal households were assessed for the five years from 2013 to 2017

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1.4 Structure of the thesis

Apart from the opening, the thesis is divided into seven chapters:

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: Overview of climate change and sustainable livelihoods

Chapter 3: Methods of data collection and processing

Chapter 4: Background information of the study area

Chapter 5: Climate change and adaptation to climate change impacts

Chapter 6: Some policy recommendations to support livelihoods in adaptation to climate change for coastal communities in Nha Trang city, Khanh Hoa province

Chapter 7: Conclusion

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CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABLE

LIVELIHOODS 2.1 Climate change

2.1.1 Concepts related to climate change

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in a narrow sense Climate is usually defined as “the average weather, or more rigorously,

as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years The relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind” In a wider sense “Climate is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system” (IPCC, 2014)

Climate change is considered as “a change in the state of the climate that can be

identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer” (IPCC, 2014)

Adaptation is regarded as “the process of adjustment to actual or expected

climate and its effects In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm

or exploit beneficial opportunities In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.” The adaptations can be anticipatory or reactive adaptation, and they can be private or public (IPCC, 2014)

Adaptive capacity is “the ability of systems, institutions, humans and other

organisms to adjust to to climate change (including climate variability and extremes)

to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences” (IPCC, 2014)

All scenarios are based on different assumptions regarding demographic change, social and economic development and broad technological shifts corresponding to the four families (A1, A2, B1, B2), each with an illustrative “marker” scenario Two of the scenario groups of the A1 family (A1FI, A1T) explicitly explore alternative energy technology developments, holding the other driving forces constant, each with an illustrative scenario (IPCC, 2000)

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2.1.2 The situation of climate change in the world

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, the Earth’s surface has been successively warmer during the last three decades and warmer than any preceding decade since 1850 The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature showed a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06]

°C over the period 1880 to 2012 and the global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21]m over the period 1901 to 2010 The global mean surface temperature change for

the period 2016–2035 will likely be in the range of 0.3°C to 0.7°C and about 70% of the

coastlines worldwide is projected to experience a sea level change within ±20% of the

temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number

of regions have happened since 1950 (IPCC, 2014)

As shown by The United Nations Development Programme, many observed impacts of the changing climate including sea-level rise, flooding, storms, extreme weather events and droughts are increasing in frequency and intensity They are happening more quickly than previously predicted, threatening coastal communities, critical infrastructure and damaging agriculture, fishing and other livelihoods According to a recent report of the UN Secretary-General, the cost of disasters caused

by climate change has reached an average of $250 billion to $300 billion a year, or nearly $1.5 trillion in worldwide economic damage during 2003–2013 (UNDP, 2017)

2.1.3 The situation of climate change in Viet Nam

With over 3000 km of coastline, every year Viet Nam must frequently face tropical cyclones and hurricanes These natural disasters frequently cause flooding in low-lying areas such as the floods in Hanoi in November 2008, in the delta areas (for example, in the Mekong Delta in 2000 and 2001) and in the central region In the high areas, heavy rains often cause flash floods and landslides, which cause heavy flooding in downstream areas In addition to the adverse effects of weather, Viet Nam also suffers from other long-term hazards such as shore erosion, salinization of river mouths, which greatly affects agricultural and fishery livelihoods According to recent estimates, the total

The scenarios of climate change and sea level rise for Viet Nam were developed and published in 2009 under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1), medium (B2) and high (A2, A1F1) With the existing studies and calculations of climate models in Viet Nam, the greenhouse gas emission scenarios were selected to update the climate change scenarios and sea level rise for Viet Nam in the 21st century The IPCC’s emission scenarios include B1, A1T (low emission scenarios); B2, A1b (medium emission scenarios) and A2, A1F1 (high emission scenarios) The base period to compare climate change in the 21st century is the period 1980-1999 and this

is also the period used by the IPCC in the 2007 Assessment Report Under the scenarios, the following climate change is expected in Viet Nam in the coming years:

- According to the low emission scenarios: by the end of the 21st century, the annual average temperature will rise by 1.6 °C to 2.2°C, the rainfall will increase by 2-6%, the sea level will rise by 49-64cm

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- According to the medium emission scenario: by the end of the 21st century, the annual average temperature will increase by 2 to 3°C, the rainfall will increase by 2 to 7%, the sea level will rise by 57 to 73cm

- According to the high emission scenario: by the end of the 21st century, the annual average temperature will increase by 2.5 to 3.7°C, the rainfall will increase by 2-10%, the sea level will rise by 78-95cm

Recent research by the Asia Foundation indicates that in the past 20 years, Viet Nam has been one of the five countries in the world with the highest natural disaster risk, with estimated losses accounting for 1.5% of annual GDP (the Asia Foundation, 2015)

As evidenced in the recent five years, each year disasters killed about 500 people, causing damage worth 14,500 billion VND, equivalent to 1.2% of the country’s GDP From 2005 to 2014, the annual average in Viet Nam is about 649 natural disasters such

as floods, hails, storms, flash flood, cyclones and landslides On average in Viet Nam, 469,526 houses were destroyed, and 174,663 houses were damaged due to natural disasters Of these total losses, the economic losses caused by flooding accounted for the largest share, with 58% The economic damage caused by the typhoons was about 29%, ranking the second (MONRE, 2015)

2.2 Sustainable livelihoods

Sustainable livelihoods have been a major concern for researchers and policy makers in many countries around the world The ultimate goal of the development process for nations is to improve livelihoods and improve social welfare for the population, and at the same time to secure sustainable development

According to Chambers and Conway (1992), a livelihood consists of the capabilities, assets (stores, resources, claims and access) and activities required for a means of living The sustainability of livelihoods is assessed in two ways: the environmental sustainability (referring to the viability of livelihoods in preserving or enhancing natural resources for future generations) and social sustainability (referring

to livelihoods in dealing with stress and mutation) A livelihood is considered sustainable when it promotes the potential of human beings to produce and sustain

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their livelihood It must be able to cope and overcome the pressure as well as unexpected changes It must not be overexploited or detrimental to the environment and should contribute net benefits to other livelihoods at the local and global levels in the present and in the future and promote harmony among them and bring good things

to future generations (IMOLA Project, 2006)

Later research by Scoones (1998), DFID (2001) and Solesbury (2003) developed the sustainability of livelihoods in both economic and institutional terms and came up with a set of criteria for assessing the sustainability of livelihoods on four dimensions: economic, social, environmental and institutional

- Economic sustainability is when it can achieve and maintain a basic level of economic welfare and this economic welfare may vary across regions

- Social sustainability is achieved when social discrimination is minimized and social justice is maximized

- Environmental sustainability is assessed through more sustainable use of natural resources (land, water, forests, sea, etc.), not destroying the environment (pollution, environmental degradation)

- Institutional sustainability is assessed through a number of criteria: support and legitimacy; participatory policy-making processes, public and private sector agencies and organizations operate effectively This creates a favorable institutional and policy environment to help improve livelihoods over time

According to the authors, all four aspects are equally important and it is necessary to find an optimal balance

2.2.1 Sustainable livelihoods framework

Sustainable livelihood frameworks analyze the interaction of five groups of factors that affect household livelihoods: (i) livelihood resources; (ii) livelihood strategies, (iii) livelihood outcomes, (iv) institutional and policy processes, and (v) external context (DFID, 2001)

Livelihood resources and the human ability to access livelihood resources are considered to be central elements in the approach to sustainable livelihoods There are

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five types of livelihood resources: Natural resources include natural resources that

humans can use to carry out livelihood activities, such as land, forests, marine

resources, water, air, and biodiversity Physical resources include basic infrastructure

that supports livelihood activities, such as roads, housing, water supply, drainage,

energy, and information Financial resources include the different sources that human

use to achieve livelihood goals such as savings, cash, jewelry, loans, and income

Human resources include skills, knowledge, experience, working capacity, health and

education, which help people implement different livelihood strategies and achieve different livelihood outcomes At the household level, human resources are the decisive factor in the quantity and quality of labor, and it varies according to

household size, skill levels, and health Social resources include the relationships

between people and the society on which they depend to implement livelihoods, mainly social networks (political or civilian), membership of community organizations, market access, and so on

- Livelihood activities are the ways in which the household uses available livelihood resources to make a living and meet the needs of life For example, a fisherfolk who makes a living by catching fish will use livelihood resources such as: (i) natural resources (fishery resources); (ii) physical resources (fishing boats, fishing gears, docks); (iii) human resources (labor force, health, knowledge and experience in fisheries), (iv) social resources (market for products), and (v) financial resources (loans from banks, relatives, and friends) Different groups of people in the community having different socio-economic characteristics and different livelihood resources should select different livelihood strategies Possible livelihood activities are agricultural production, capture fisheries, aquaculture, small-scale industrial production, trade, tourism, or migration

- Livelihood outcomes are what the households achieve by combining different livelihood resources to implement livelihood activities Major livelihood outcomes include: increased incomes, improved welfare, enhanced food security, more sustainable use of natural resources These livelihood outcomes reflect the sustainability of livelihoods across four dimensions: social, economic, environmental and institutional

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- Institutions (public and private institutions), laws and policies play an important role in the success of livelihoods The institutions and policies are developed and operated at all levels, from the household level to the higher levels such as regional, national and international levels These institutions and policies determine the access

to livelihood resources and the implementation of livelihood strategies of individuals, households and different target groups

- The external context, simply understood, is the external environment in which humans live People’s livelihoods and their livelihood resources are greatly influenced

by three elements of the external context: trends, shocks and seasonality Trends include population trends, livelihood resources, national and international economic activities, national political situation, technological change, etc Shocks include health shocks (diseases), natural shocks (weather, natural disasters), economic shock (crisis) and crop/livestock shock Seasonality involves changes in prices, production activities, and seasonal employment opportunities Besides, there are more threats to local people’s livelihoods: new development projects, big constructions, removal of people

to make space for tourism and new large-scale businesses as well as pollution

Of the five components that make up the sustainable livelihoods framework, the livelihood resources play a key role in livelihood activities at the individual, household

or group level as it determines which livelihood strategies are followed to achieve the desired livelihood outcomes However, these livelihood resources are also influenced

by external contextual factors as well as local institutions and policies Therefore, the interaction between these factors combined with the need for livelihoods will determine the livelihood strategies of individuals, households and different target groups

2.2.2 Typical sustainable livelihoods frameworks

Sustainable livelihood analysis is basically about learning about people's livelihoods and then finding ways to make them sustainable

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Figure 2.1: Sustainable rural livelihoods framework (Source: Scoones, 1998)

Scoones was the first to provide an analytical framework for sustainable rural livelihoods This framework indicated how, in a specific context (environment, policy, politics, history, ecology, socio-economic conditions), sustainable livelihoods are achieved through access to a range of livelihood resources (natural, economic, human and social capitals) which are combined in the pursuit of different livelihood strategies (agricultural production, livelihood diversification and migration) The main concerns

in this framework are institutional and organizational processes which are considered

as intermediary factors to implement these livelihood strategies and achieve the desired livelihood outcomes Among the components making up the sustainable livelihoods framework, the livelihood resources play a key role in livelihood activities

at all levels

The Department for International Development (DFID) in the United Kingdom in

2001 launched a sustainable livelihoods framework to identify and design supporting activities It is also considered as a comprehensive approach to development issues in human livelihoods and poverty in different contexts According to this framework, households have a livelihood approach (livelihood strategy) based on available livelihood resources within the local policy and institutional context The choice of

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livelihood strategies of households based on current livelihood resources is the result

of interaction between these groups of factors

Figure 2.2: Sustainable livelihoods frame (Source: DFID 2001,

http://www.livelihoods.org/info/dlg/frame/frame.htm)

Figure 2.3: Sustainable coastal livelihoods framework

(Source: International Development Research Centre 2011)

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In 2004 Integrated Marine Management (IMM) modified the above mentioned sustainable livelihoods framework to make it more relevant to coastal communities This has been referred to as the "Sustainable Coastal Livelihoods Framework" (MARD, 2008) In this framework, the livelihoods of coastal households are influenced by three groups of factors The first group consists of livelihood resources that households use to implement livelihood strategies The second group comprises individual characteristics such as age, sex, religion, etc and social factors such as political structure, policy, law, etc which directly affect the coastal communities The third group includes indirect effects such as seasonality, natural disasters, external trends, etc The choice of livelihood strategies of coastal communities based on existing livelihood resources is the result of the interaction between these three sets of basic elements

2.3 Sustainable livelihoods and climate change

2.3.1 Sustainable livelihood framework and climate change

A sustainable livelihood approach has been widely used to analyze livelihoods across a range of sectors including agriculture, fisheries and rural livelihoods in general The Sustainable Livelihood Framework is used as a tool to analyze the livelihood resources, the livelihood strategies and the livelihood outcomes achieved from the implementation of these livelihood strategies, thereby proposing economic, social and environmental sustainable livelihoods at the household and community level Since the early 1990s, the international donors such as CARE International, DANIDA, Oxfam, DFID and UNDP have adopted the sustainable livelihood framework to design poverty reduction projects and resource management in rural and coastal areas in Asia and Africa in a pro-poor approach

Looking at the current and future impacts of climate change, one can see that climate change is a key factor in the risk of livelihoods The effects of climate change (e.g., sea level rise, storm, flood and extreme weather condition) on livelihood resources such as natural resources (e.g., land, water, fisheries) and material resources (roads, irrigation, electricity networks) are very significant When livelihood resources are affected, livelihood activities will also be affected For example, the phenomenon

in the context of climate change This is an urgent need nowadays in the context of increasingly abnormal climate and serious impacts on the livelihoods of people, especially coastal people

2.3.2 Impacts of climate change to coastal livelihoods

The impacts of climate change on livelihood resources will affect the selection of livelihood activities and the achievement of livelihood outcomes of households

Affected livelihoods activities

Affected livelihoods outcomes

- Decreased output

- Decreased income Salinization-intruded

of the water and affecting the growth of aquatic species

Affected fishing and aquaculture activities

- Decreased fish capture and aquaculture productivity

- Decreased income Breaking current

infrastructure (dykes, irrigation systems, bridges)

Affected agricultural, aquaculture and tourism activities

Productivity, output, revenue from

agriculture, fisheries, tourism decreased

temperature and salinity of the water source

Affected fishing and aquaculture activities

- Reduced income Movement of aquatic

species

Affected fishing activities

- Productivity/output decreased

- Reduced income Sweetening the water

used in aquaculture

Affected aquaculture activities

- Productivity/output decreased

- Reduced income Breaking existing

infrastructure (dykes, irrigation, roads)

Affected agricultural, aquacultural and tourism activities

- Productivity / output decreased

- Productivity/output decreased

- Reduced income Movement of aquatic

species

Affected fishing activities

- Productivity/output decreased

- Reduced income

Source: MONRE, DFID and UNDP, 2010

2.3.3 Adaptability of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2012), the capacity to adapt to climate change is "the adjustment of the natural or human system

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to changing circumstances or environment in order to reduce the risk to fluctuation and changes of existing or potential climate and to take advantage of the opportunity it brings "Thus, it can be seen that the capacity to adapt to climate change reflects the ability of a system or society to adjust or respond to climate change in order to achieve two goals: reducing risks caused by climate change to mitigate possible damage, and

to take advantage of new opportunities brought about by climate change

Adaptive capacity is demonstrated through adaptive actions that reduce risks Based on policy considerations when implementing adaptation activities, adaptation is divided into two levels (ADB, 2009): passive adaption and active adaption. Passive

adaptation activities are temporary adjustments in response to the actual impacts of climate change and usually take place in the short term without the intervention of policy Active adaptation is often a strategic adjustment planned to address climate-induced risks in the way that best meets social goals in the long run

Table 2.2: Some measures to adapt to climate change by sector

minimized Agriculture sector

1 Adjust seasonal calendar and crop

structure

2 Changes in farming technology

3 Use of heat resistant varieties

4 Diversification of farming activities,

2 Extreme weather events, saline intrusion

3 Temperature increase, drought

4 Extreme weather phenomena, drought

5 Extreme weather phenomena

6 Drought, lack of water

Marine and coastal resources

1 Conserve and plant mangroves

2 Consolidate and strengthen the wall

systems

3 Reallocate aquaculture areas and

coastal infrastructure

4 Build higher standards of home

construction, industrial parks and

infrastructure

5 Monitor sea level rise

6 Map disasters and vulnerable area

1 Typhoons, cyclones, coastal erosion

2 Sea level rise, beach erosion

3 Storm, tornado, coastal erosion, sea level rise

4 Storm, tornado, coastal erosion, sea level rise

5 Sea level rise

6 Sea level rise

Source: ADB, 2009

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2.3.4 Support livelihoods to adapt to climate change

Basically, livelihood support often provided to communities depends on natural resources that help them reduce their dependency and negative impacts on natural resources and reduce risks before the outside changes Livelihood support can be implemented in four forms (MARD, 2008):

- Creating a favorable environment for increasing livelihood resources: improving people's livelihoods and opening up more positive livelihoods solutions (good management of natural resources, improve infrastructure and social resources, support access to credit, improve education and training, etc.)

- Strengthening existing income-making activities and improving livelihoods

- Developing alternative or complementary livelihoods

- Creating a favorable environment for institutions and policies

Climate change hurts livelihood resources, thereby affecting livelihood activities and livelihood outcomes of the people Therefore, support from the state through measures to improve livelihood resources plays a very important role In addition, creating a favorable institutional and policy environment in the context of adaptation to climate change will help people adapt to climate change in the long term (Thu, 2011):

- Support to improve livelihood resources: improve natural resources, material resources, financial resources, human resources and social resources

- Create a favorable environment for institutions and policies: integrate climate change adaptation into development planning process (integrating climate change into national and regional policies, into investments and projects by sector, and into specific initiatives in the locality)

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CHAPTER 3: METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING

This study has used primary data (focus group discussions, household surveys) and secondary data (government statistics, reports, other sources) The findings are analyzed in light of the sustainable livelihood analysis framework

Table 3.1: The analytical framework

3.1 Method of data collection

3.1.1 Primary data were collected through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)

including community leaders, aquaculture groups, fishing groups and Household Survey in coastal communities in Vinh Nguyen ward and Vinh Luong commune After discussing with the leaders of each research area, Tri Nguyen1 population group, Tri Nguyen 2 population group and Tri Nguyen 3 population group of Vinh Nguyen ward; Van Dang 2 hamlet and Luong Son 2 hamlet of Vinh Luong commune were selected for investigation

3.1.1.1 Focus group discussion

Focus group discussion is a method of gathering information from discussions with a group of 6-8 people with certain socio-economic characteristics that are relevant

CURRENT STATUS OF HOUSEHOLD LIVELIHOODS

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF COASTAL HOUSEHOLD

LIVELIHOODS TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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to the topic of the discussion This research applied a discussion method with two main groups of stakeholders: (i) ward leaders and staff working in aquaculture and fisheries and (ii) households representing two main livelihoods (fishing and aquaculture) In each study area, two focus group discussions were conducted in October 2017

Focus group discussions were conducted based on closed-ended and open-ended questions, with the aim of exploring general information on: (i) livelihood resources, activities and results, infrastructure and services, (ii) possible climate change impacts, (iii) adaptive capacity of coastal households through the economic, social, environmental and institutional conditions, (iv) possible measures to adapt to climate change and to mitigate the effects, (v) helping the author outline the household questionnaire to collect data for quantitative research The specific content of the group discussions is presented in Appendix

3.1.1.2 Household survey

Based on group discussions, a questionnaire was completed for this study The author conducted a trial survey of five households in Tri Nguyen 3, Vinh Nguyen ward and three households in Van Dang 2 hamlet, Vinh Luong commune in November

2017 The results of the initial survey were positive and the author continued to complete the questionnaire to conduct the formal investigation (questionnaire is shown

in Appendix) A survey of households in these two coastal areas (Vinh Nguyen ward and Vinh Luong commune) of Nha Trang was conducted in December 2017

The questionnaire was conducted through the interviews of household heads, consisting of seven main parts: (i) general household information, (ii) local climate change situation, (iii) livelihoods resources affected by climate change, (iv) livelihoods activities affected by climate change, (v) livelihoods outcomes affected by climate change, (vi) response activities on livelihoods of the people affected by climate change, (vii) needs of households for the forms of state support The author used different calculations to give the information and result on climate change in the locality, livelihood resources, livelihood activities and livelihood outcomes affected by climate change

3.1.2 Secondary data were collected from Khanh Hoa and Nha Trang Statistical Year

Book, Viet Nam Living Standards Survey 2014, provided by the Provincial People's

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Committee and Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Khanh Hoa Province These data were used to determine livelihood status of coastal households in Nha Trang city, Khanh Hoa Province, as follows:

* Basic livelihood resources: Natural resources (agricultural land area, water surface for aquaculture); Physical resources (roads, access to electricity, clean water, and markets in the wards); Financial resources (savings, bank loans); Human resources (number of employees working, education level of labor force); Social resources (access to information: post offices, cultural house, radio station)

* Basic livelihood activities: agriculture, fishing and aquaculture, industry and service

* Livelihoods outcomes: Economics (average monthly production value of a household); Society (employment, poverty); environment (use of natural resources, pollution problems or environmental degradation)

The historical data on the manifestation and possible future impacts of climate change caused by floods, storms, droughts, salinity intrusion, sea level rise, landslide were provided by Hydro-Meteorological Station in the south central region and the results of some existing researches

3.2 Data processing methods

The study used Microsoft Excel 2010 software, the basic statistical methods and calculation method to analyze the data The data presented in the study results were processed as follows:

- Current status of household livelihoods

Through focus group discussion, household survey and some simple caculations such as addition and division to get percentage rate of gender, age, education level and occupation of two study areas as well as to have a picture of the household livelihoods and infrastructure and services

- Climate change impacts to coastal households of Nha Trang city

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Using secondary data, mainly from existing reports and studies (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Khanh Hoa Department of Natural Resources and Environment) and applying descriptive statistical analysis methods, the main manifestations and impacts of climate change on the coastal area of Nha Trang city were considered in terms of temperature, precipitation, storms and tropical depression, flood, drought, salinity intrusion, other types of natural disasters The author also used primary data to assess the impact of climate change on people's lives (livelihood resource, livelihood activities and livelihood outcome) in two coastal areas, Nha Trang city

- Analysing the adaptive capacity of coastal livelihoods to the impacts of climate change

This research applied adaptive capacity analysis through economic, social, environmental and institutional conditions for adaptive activities With the household survey data in two coastal areas of Nha Trang city and through statistical methods, adaptation measures of different livelihood groups were fully detailed in a statistical table

A multi-criteria analysis method was used to analyze environmental-institutional sustainability of existing livelihoods The criteria for analysis were based on the following table:

socio-economic-Table 3.2: Criteria for assessing adaptation of livelihoods

Economy - Profitable

- Quick capital recovery time

- Possible to increase household income over time Society - Creating employment opportunities for family members

- Having a good impact on those who implement scale livelihoods such as farmers, fishermen, wage earners

small Greater involvement of women in livelihood activities -To be accepted and supported by the community, suitable for local tradition and culture

Environment - Low impact on the natural environment (soil, water, air)

- Do not degrade the quality of natural resources Institutions - There are local agencies and policies that support the

successful implementation of livelihoods Sources: Dat and Thu, 2011

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- Adaptation measures to climate change

Using the primary data and applying descriptive statistical analysis methods to

present adaptation measures to climate change and discuss possible measures to adapt

to climate change and to mitigate the effects

in Vinh Luong because the number of fishing and aquaculture housesholds in Vinh Nguyen (527 fishing households and 170 aquaculture ones) is more than in Vinh Luong (192 fishing households and 70 aquaculture ones) Vinh Luong and Vinh Nguyen were chosen as study areas because they are coastal communities in South Central Vietnam, which are highly exposed to climate change, and because there is a high concentration of fishing and aquaculture livelihoods in these two communities and these livelihoods are most vulnerable to climate change

The interviews were implemented after Storm Damrey, so it affected the results

of the survey much The local people found that storms really are the main factor to destroy their livelihoods, so they focused on only their loss caused by Storm Damrey and State support to help them to recover their livelihood activities Besides, the author thinks that the ward and commune cadres’ presence affected their answers For example, some of them could lose about 80% of their livelihood assets, but they told

us they had lost 100% so that they could get more supports from state and charity organizations

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CHAPTER 4: BACKGROUND INFORMATION OF THE STUDY AREA 4.1 Khanh Hoa province

4.1.1 Geographical features

385 km featuring numerous creek mouths, lagoons, river mouths, and hundreds of

some of its territory extending far to the South China Sea It borders Phu Yen province

to the North, Ninh Thuan province to the South, Dak Lak province to the West, East Sea to the East Apart from the mainland, Khanh Hoa also has sea areas, continental shelf areas, coastal islands and Truong Sa island districts

Khanh Hoa now includes two cities (Nha Trang and Cam Ranh), one town (Ninh Hoa) and six districts (Van Ninh, Dien Khanh, Khanh Vinh, Khanh Son, Cam Lam and Truong Sa island) Khanh Hoa also has a rich and diversified natural resources especially marine resources which can be exploited, cultivated, processed and exported

in large quantities

4.1.2 Climate

Compared with the northern provinces, the climate in Khanh Hoa is relatively milder due to the nature of the ocean climate There are only two distinct seasons: the rainy season and the sunny season The rainy season, from mid-September to mid-December, focuses on October and November, with precipitation accounting for more than 50% of the annual rainfall

Table 4.1: Average temperature and rainfall in Khanh Hoa province

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Temperatures in Khanh Hoa province are quite high, reaching the standard of the tropics Annual average temperatures in most areas are from 26.2 - 27.3°C The highest monthly temperature in the year ranges from 32.0 - 39.5°C Long-term high temperatures cause an increase in evaporation of surface water, leading to more severe dehydration and an impact on agricultural production and livelihoods Khanh Hoa is less stormy and the frequency of typhoons entering Khanh Hoa is low, only about 0.82 typhoons per year compared with 3.74 typhoons per year landed in Viet Nam However, due to the steep terrain with high slopes, when there is storm accompanied with heavy rain, the water level rises rapidly while the storm surge and high tide prevent the water from draining to the sea, thus causing frequent floods, affecting the production and life of the people (Department of Natural Resources and Environment Khanh Hoa, 2013) In 2017 Khanh Hoa province was hit by Storm Damrey The total

4.1.3 Population characteristics

According to the survey data released in 2016, the population of Khanh Hoa was 1,213,787 with a population density of 236 persons / km² with 597,217 men (49.20%) and 616,550 women (50.80%) 546,453 people live in urban areas (45.02% of the province's population) and 667,334 people live in rural areas (54.98%)

4.1.4 Current status of coastal household livelihoods in Khanh Hoa province

Based on the results of focus group discussions and the secondary data of Khanh Hoa Statistical Yearbooks, Nha Trang Statistical Yearbooks, Result of the Viet Nam household living standards survey 2014, the author determined the status of coastal household livelihoods in Nha Trang city, Khanh Hoa province

- Basic livelihood resources

Natural resources

The total area of Nha Trang city is 25,428 ha including 9,591 ha of agriculture land (accounting for 37.72% of the total area), 6,378 ha of non-agriculture land (25.08%) and 9,459 unused land (37.20%) Nha Trang has a lot of agriculture land and surface water which is favorable for agricultural production, aquaculture and fishery

Aquaculture land

Other agricultural land

Annual crop land

Land for perennial crops Khanh Hoa

province 336,094 59,973 40,703 227,114 1,022 6,829 453 Nha Trang

Source: Khanh Hoa Province Statistics Yearbook 2016

Material resources

All wards and communes of Nha Trang have electricity, motorways to the

wards/communes’offices, a full education system from kindergarten to high school, a

medical station Nha Trang has 41 primary schools, 25 junior high schools and 9

senior high schools (Nha Trang city Statistics Yearbook 2016) 100% urban

households and 87.34 % rural ones use hygienic water (Khanh Hoa Province Statistics

Yearbook 2016)

Financial resource

The cash flow through bank and savings deposit tended to increase over time

The total revenue of Khanh Hoa province increased from VND 160,972 billion in

2012 upto VND 263,229 billion in 2016 and the total expenditure from VND 160,211

billion in 2012 to VND 252,875 billion in 2016 Bank loans of all economic sectors in

Khanh Hoa province increased sharply while the accumulation capacity of the

households and the support from State were low Therefore, the bank loans to invest in

production play an important role in strengthening financial resources for households

Human resources

The abundant labor force helps Khanh Hoa province in general and Nha Trang

city promote locals’ and households’socio-economic development

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Table 4.3: Number of employees working in Khanh Hoa province

Unit: thousand people Khanh Hoa province Cities

Total Male Female Total Male Female Population in

working age 748.1 387.7 360.4 395.6 195 200.6

Population working 587.7 325.8 261.9 298.0 159.6 138.4

Source: Khanh Hoa Province Statistics Yearbook 2013

Social resources

Nha Trang has 2 libraries, 27 culture houses, one television and radio station with

28 sub-stations and 735 louderspeakers distributed evenly to every ward and commune

(Nha Trang city Statistics Yearbook 2013), which helps local people update the lastest

information on weather, disasters, epidemics to cope with promptly

Table 4.4: Access to information in Nha Trang city

houses

Number

of wards/

communes with legal bookcases

Number

of wards/

communes with library

Number of wards/

communes having loudspeaker system to village

Number

of wards/

communes having markets

Number

of wards/

communes having people's credit funds

Number

of wards/ communes having sports grounds