An integrated approach to the assessment of post tsunami status of the fisheries with further reference to climate change

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY SINGHALAGE SHANIKA SHRIMANI WERALUGOLLA AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF POST TSUNAMI STATUS OF THE FISHERIES WITH F

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

SINGHALAGE SHANIKA SHRIMANI WERALUGOLLA

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT

OF POST TSUNAMI STATUS OF THE FISHERIES WITH FURTHER REFERENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF THE SMALL- SCALE FISHERIES SECTOR OF

SOUTHERN SRI LANKA

MASTER THESIS

KHANH HOA - 2019

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

SINGHALAGE SHANIKA SHRIMANI WERALUGOLLA

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT

OF POST TSUNAMI STATUS OF THE FISHERIES WITH FURTHER REFERENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CASE OF THE SMALL- SCALE FISHERIES SECTOR OF

SOUTHERN SRI LANKA

MASTER THESIS

Major:

Masters Degree on Marine Ecosystem Management and Climate Change

Code:

Topic allocation Decision:

Decision on establishing the

committee:

Supervisors:

1: PROF OSCAR AMARASINGHE

2: PROF CLAIR ARMSTRONG

Chairman of the Committee:

Assoc Prof Le Kim Long

Faculty of Graduate Studies:

Hoang Ha Giang

KHANH HOA 2019

UNDERTAKING

I undertake that the thesis entitled: “An integrated approach to the assessment of post tsunami status of the fisheries with further reference to climate change: the case of the small- scale fisheries sector of southern Sri Lanka” is my own work

The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis

is submitted

01.01.2019

Singhalage Shanika Shrimani Weralugolla

(Author)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to the faculty

of Graduate Studies, Nha Trang University and NORHED Project for giving me the best conditions to carry out my master’s studies and to finish this master thesis

My heartiest gratitude should go to both of my supervisors, Prof Oscar Amarasinghe and Prof Claire Armstrong for their continuous support and guidance given for my Master study and research, for their patience, motivation, enthusiasm and immense knowledge

I always would be thankful to all the lecturers, coordinators and all other colleagues

of the NORHED Master’s Programme for supporting me and being with me in all ups and downs throughout the entire period of time

Further, I would like to extend my sincere thanks to all the fishers of Godawaya, staff of Neil Marines (Pvt) Ltd and New Nylon Nets and all the state officials for helping me with providing all the information I needed to make this study a success

Special gratitude would be extended to Dr Nilantha De Silva and all my friends at University of Ruhuna for their heartiest contribution made for my study

Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my father, mother and my brother for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis

Thank you!

30 05 2019 Singhalage Shanika Shrimani Weralugolla

Table of Contents

UNDERTAKING iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv

Table of Contents v

List of Tables viii

Table of Figures xi

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xiii

ABSTRACT 1

: Introduction 3

1.1 Problem Statement 5

1.2 Research questions 8

1.3 Objectives 9

: LITERATURE REVIEW 10

2.1 Overview of Sri Lanka and Sri Lankan fisheries sector 10

2.2 Small-Scale Fisheries of Sri Lanka 11

2.3 Technical characteristics of Sri Lanka’s fisheries sector 12

2.4 The blue revolution - Technological change in fisheries sector 13

2.5 Assessment of marine fish resources (stock assessments) 14

2.6 Climate Change and associated impacts on fisheries 18

: METHODOLOGY 24

3.1 Study area 24

3.2 Data collection 26

3.2.1 Collection of Primary Data 26

3.2.1.1 Key Informant Discussions 26

3.2.2 Collection of Secondary Data 27

3.3 Data analysis 27

3.3.1 Gordon Schaefer bioeconomic model 28

3.3.1.1 Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) 30

3.3.1.2 Maximum Economic Yield (MEY) 30

3.3.1.3 Open Access (OA) equilibrium 31

3.3.1.4 Estimation of catchability coefficient- q 32

3.3.1.5 Estimation of carrying capacity- k 32

3.3.3 Calculation of cost of craft operation and unit costs 32

3.3.3.1 Fixed costs 33

3.3.3.2 Variable costs 33

3.3.4 Calculation of unit price 35

3.3.5 Calculation of SSF catch of Hambantota district 36

3.3.6 Calculation of unit effort 37

3.3.7 Gordon-Schaefer logistic growth model 38

3.3.7.1 Calculation of MSY, MEY and OAE 38

3.3.7.2 Incorporation of climate change into the Gordon-Schaefer model 38

: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 39

Part I 39

An analysis of the process of evolution of the Small-Scale Fisheries sector 39

4.1.1 Technological change in fisheries of Sri Lanka 39

4.1.1.1 Technological development in fishing crafts 39

4.1.1.1.1 Development in type and number of crafts in Hambantota district 40

4.1.2 Changes in fish Catch and its composition 43

4.1.2.1 Change in annual total fish catch 43

4.1.2.1 Composition of fish catch 45

Part II 47

Changes in cost of craft operations 47

4.2.1 Changes in Annual Cost of craft operation by type of craft 47

4.2.1.1 Changes in TFC and TVC of craft operations-OFRP 48

4.2.1.2 Changes in TFC and TVC of craft operations- MTRB 49

4.2.1.3 Changes in TFC and TVC of craft operations- NTRB 50

4.2.1.4 Comparison of Total Costs of the three craft types; OFRP, MTRB and NTRB 51

Part III 52

Estimation of pre and post tsunami status of fisheries resources; application of the Gordon-Schafer model 52

4.3.1 Annual SSF catch, Unit price of fish and Unit cost of effort 52

4.3.2 Annual Effort 53

4.3.4 The status of coastal fisheries resources in Hambantota district 57

4.3.4.1 The Pre-tsunami status of fishery resources in Hambanthota 57

4.3.4.1.1 Maximum sustainable yield (MSY)- Pre tsunami 57

4.3.4.1.2 Maximum Economic Yield (MEY)- Pre tsunami 58

4.3.4.1.3 Open Access Equilibrium (OAE) - Pre tsunami 58

4.3.4.1.4 Pre-tsunami states of fisheries resources 60

4.3.4.2 The Post-tsunami status of the fisheries resources in Hambanthota 60

4.3.4.2.1 Maximum Sustainable yield- Post tsunami 61

4.3.4.2.2 Maximum Economic Yield- Post tsunami 61

4.3.4.2.3 Open Access Equilibrium- Post tsunami 61

4.3.4.2.4 The present status of fisheries resources in the Hambanthota district 63

Part IV 65

Evaluation of the Impacts from climate change on fisheries resources 65

4.4.1 Pronounced changes in the climate, recorded in the Hambantota district 65

4.4.2 Occurrence of strong winds and storms 65

4.4.3 Effect of storms and strong winds on fisheries resources 66

4.4.3.1 Application of GS model for climate related analysis -Economic effect of storms 67

4.4.3.1.1 Economic effects under Scenario 1 68

4.4.3.1.2 Economic effects under Scenario 2 69

4.4.3.1.3 Economic effects under Scenario 3 70

4.4.3.1.4 Economic implications on resource status under different climate change scenarios 71

4.4.3.2 Application of GS model for climate related analysis: Biophysical effect of storms 72

4.4.3.2.1 Biophysical effects under Scenario 1 74

4.4.3.2.2 Biophysical effects under Scenario 2 75

4.4.3.2.3 Biophysical effect – Scenario 3 76

4.4.3.2.4 Biophysical implications on the resource status 77

4.4 Existing Level of resource management and implications of the results of the GS model 78

4.5 Limitation of the study and sensitivity of results 81

: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 84

LIST OF REFERENCES 91 APPENDICES I

List of Tables

Table 2 1 Technical characteristics of Sri Lankan Small-scale fishery 12

Table 3 1 Formula used in the calculation of MSY, MEY and OAE 39

Table 3 2 Methodology used in the Sensitivity Analysis 39

Table 4 1 Standardized effort units 53

Table 4 2 Estimation of standard effort- ‘number of standard vessels’ 55

Table 4 3 Estimations of MSY, MEY and OAE - Pre tsunami 59

Table 4 4 Estimation of MSY, MEY and OAE- Post tsunami 62

Table 4 5 Change in price and cost under each climate change scenario 67

Table 4 6 Economic Impact under Scenario 1: Impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 68

Table 4 7 Economic Impact under Scenario 1: Impact on Revenue, Cost and Profit 69

Table 4 8 Economic Impact-Scenario 2: Impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 70

Table 4 9 Economic Impact-Scenario 2: Impact on Revenue, Cost and Profit 70

Table 4 10 Economic Impact-Scenario 3: Impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 71

Table 4 11: Economic Impact-Scenario 3: Impact on Revenue, Cost and Profit 71

Table 4 12 Change in r and k of each scenario under biophysical impact 73

Table 4 13 Biophysical Impact under Scenario 1and the subsequent impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 75

Table 4 14 Biophysical Impact-Scenario 1and subsequent impact on revenue, cost and profit 75

Table 4 15 Biophysical Impact under Scenario 2 and subsequent impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 76

Table 4 16 Biophysical Impact under Scenario 2 and subsequent impact on revenue, cost and profit 76

Table 4 17 Biophysical Impact under Scenario 3 and subsequent impact on MSY, MEY and OAE 77

Table 4 18 Biophysical Impact under Scenario 3 and subsequent impact on revenue, cost and profit 77

Table of Figures

Figure 2 1 Different fishing techniques (craft-gear combinations) used in small-scale

fisheries of Sri Lanka 13

Figure 2 2 A District Level vulnerability to climate change B Marine fisheries sector vulnerability to sea level rise C Inland and brackish water fishery vulnerability to sea level rise 19

Figure 2 3 Storm surge hazards of Sri Lanka 23

Figure 2 4 Tropical storms crossed Sri Lanka 23

Figure 3 1 A Southern province (Galle, Matara and Hambanthota), Sri Lanka B Twelve Divisional Secretariat Divisions, Hambanthota District 25

Figure 4 1 Change in annual total number of crafts in Hambanthota District 41

Figure 4 2 Change in Annual Total fish catch and Annual total SSF catch in the Hambantota district 44

Figure 4 3 Species composition of fish landings in the Hambantota district 47

Figure 4 4 Annual costs of craft operation- OFRP crafts 49

Figure 4 5 Annual cost of craft operation- MTRB craft 50

Figure 4 6 Annual costs of craft operation- NTRB craft 51

Figure 4 7 Annual Total Costs of craft operation per each type of craft- OFRP, MTRB and NTRB 52

Figure 4 8 Change in annual CPUE in Hambanthota District 57

Figure 4 9 Equilibrium Harvest curve- Pre-tsunami 58

Figure 4 10 Total Revenue and Total Cost Curves- Pre tsunami 59

Figure 4 11 Growth curve (Growth-Stock Relationship)- Pre tsunami 59

Figure 4 12 Dissipation of resource rent from MEY to Actual condition (2004) 60

Figure 4 13 Equilibrium Harvest Curve- Post tsunami 61

Figure 4 14 Total Revenue and Total Cost curves- Post tsunami 62

Figure 4 15 Growth curve (Growth-Stock relationship)-post tsunami 62

Figure 4 16 Upward shift and expansion of post-tsunami Equilibrium Harvest curve 63

Figure 4 17 Annual occurrences of storms/ strong winds in Hambantota district 66

Figure 4 18 Impacts of storms/ strong winds on fisheries in the Hambantota district 66 Figure 4 19 Impact of 5% increase in unit price on TR and TC 68

Figure 4 20 Impact of 5% increase in unit cost on TR and TC 69Figure 4 21 Impact of 5% increase in unit cost and unit price on TR and TC curve 70Figure 4 22 Change in size and growth of stock with the 5% change in r and k 74

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

OFRP : Outboard Motor Reinforced Plastic Boats

NARA : National Aquatic Resources Research and Development

Agency MFAR : Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources

DFAR : Department of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources

IRIN : Integrated Regional Information Networks

IPCC : Interngovernmental Panel of Climate Change

FRDC : Fisheries Research and Development Corporation

NAQDA : National Aquaculture Development Authority

GS model : Gordon Schaefer Model

FC/TFC : Fixed Cost/ Total Fixed Cost

VC/TVC : Variable Cost/ Total Variable Cost

ABSTRACT

Fishing is a risk activity, carried out in a hazardous environment where sudden or unexpected changes as well as gradual changes taking place within the sector could pose adverse effects on fish stocks, lives, livelihoods, assets, etc that change the dynamics of the fisheries system This study has focused on three such changes namely; the tsunami of 2004, technological development in the fisheries sector and climate change Despite the immeasurable catastrophe it brought, the tsunami of December 2004 brought in colossal amounts of international assistance Under the name of the assistance too many boats and gears have infiltrated into the sector including banned gear, causing large increases in fishing effort Meanwhile, the technological development that has taken place over the years too had contributed towards increasing the number and quality of fishing crafts, fishing gear and fishing techniques Tsunami led to a technological leap, replacing the old fishing feet, gear and bringing in technological innovations Climate change has entered the fisheries development equation by producing negative externalities on the ecosystems as well as the human system, further exerting pressure on them

These heavy pressures; fishing pressure and climatic threats, levied upon resources has questioned the sustainability of the resources and the existence of the fisheries sector It is in this context that the present study was undertaken Therefore, the main purpose of this study was to understand how these changes had impacted on the biological, economic and social aspects of the small-scale fisheries sector in Southern Sri Lanka, especially in the Hambanthota district of through an integrated approach Information on technological progress, fish catch and catch composition, levels of effort, cost and revenues under pre and post tsunami conditions were collected, estimated and compared while assessing the status of fish resources in Hambantota district using the Gordon Schaefer bioeconomic modeling How the status of the resources, efforts, costs and revenues will be threatened/ changed under diverse Climate Change scenarios were also estimated and predicted the rise

in storms (both frequency and intensity) as a proxy, providing important guidelines

to governors and managers of the fisheries sector

As the results implied, though the heavy fishing pressure looked a threat to the fisheries sector, this threat had been neutralized with the expansion of the resource base (with having the influence from the technological development fishers exploit underexploited and unexploited resources) However, as results depicted, fishery resources in Hambanthota district had been overexploited in both economic and biological senses during both pre tsunami (Estimated HMSY-27,866 mt and Estimated EMSY-14,155 vs Actual HMSY-20,246 and EMSY- 18,232) and post tsunami (Estimated HMSY-43,140 mt and Estimated EMSY-52,797 vs Actual HMSY-49,225 and EMSY- 58,865) periods When 5% climate change was incorporated into the model, some interesting facts were revealed One was that climate change itself could act as an input controller curtailing a significant amount of effort allowing the resource base some time to replenish But this advantage will be neutralized with the negative externality it could levy upon the human system When vulnerability is rising, individual fishers tend to use environmentally unfriendly, yet more efficient gears to exploit the resources, a reason why destructive fishing

is becoming more pervasive in the district Thus, when all considered, impact of tsunami and climate change have had impacts in two opposite directions; the former resulting in the expansion of the resource base due to an expansion of effort alongside the introduction of technological innovations, while shrinkage in resource base that curtailed the fishing effort under the latter

Further, the study signals fishery managers the possible outcomes of climate change: a rise in unemployment due to a reduction in fishing effort, which might create social unrest This also highlights the need to shift fishing effort towards unexploited and under-exploited resource areas including offshore and deep-sea fishing, which will be a move towards securing a biologically, economically and socially sustainable fishery

Key words: Technological development, Tsunami, Climate Change, Small-scale

fishery, Fishery resources, MSY, MEY, OAE

: Introduction

Being a way of life rather an ordinary livelihood, Small-scale fisheries (SSF), commonly known as the coastal fisheries, has established its immense significance among the coastal populations (Amarasinghe and Jayasinghe, 2015), by contributing towards food security, nutrition, sustainable livelihoods and poverty alleviation, which is true for all developing nations (Food and Agriculture Organization FAO, 2004), and Sri Lanka is no exclusion Contributing significantly to the relatively large per capita fish consumption of 10.8 kg/year and 53% of the annual animal protein intake the coastal fishery has been able to produce 274,160 mt fish (60% of total marine fish production) in 2016 Utilizing 90% (42,694 fleets) of the national marine fleets, active fishers spread out along the 1585 km long coastal zone of 15 fisheries districts, engage in diverse fishing activities exploiting the available coastal fisheries resources with several types of crafts engaged in single day fishing trips; Non-Mechanized Traditional Boats (NTRB), Beach Seine Boats (NBSB), Mechanized Traditional Boats (MTRB) and Outboard motor Fibre Reinforced Plastic Boats (OFRP) with a wide selection of gears (National Aquatic Resource and Research Agency NARA, 2016: Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources MFAR, 2016a: MFAR, 2016b)

In order to carry out fishing activities of SSF towards securing a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable future, it is vital to use the resources efficiently Yet, as sourced out from many reports, the coastal marine resources are already being overexploited or at the edge of overexploitation (Wijerathne, 2001 and Rodrigo, 2012) There could be many factors why these resources have put under threat of exhaustion, and this study has focused on three such major factors; the ‘tsunami’ of 2004 (unexpected natural disasters), technological development in the SSF sector (anthropogenic causes), and climate change

On the 26th of December at 6.58 am in Sri Lankan time, a massive off shore earthquake occurred measuring 9.0 on Richter scale moving the Burma plate about

13 m over the Indian plate giving rise to massive waves several meters high Among 12 countries across Asia and Africa it battered, Sri Lanka was the second worst affected country next to Indonesia Almost all coast lines of the island were

swept with the tsunami waves taking more than 30,000 lives, displacing 800,000 and creating massive damages to houses, buildings, other infrastructures and assets Among many other economic sectors, fisheries, particularly small-scale fisheries, was the prime sector tsunami posed its deleterious effects by, killing 4,870 fishermen, displacing 103,000 people, destroying 16,500 houses and

damaging 13,300 while destroying 24,192 boats and 1 million nets (Jayasuriya et al., 2006) As an overwhelming response to the mourning of hundred thousand of

people, millions of aid started pouring into these affected areas immediately after this disaster A large number of local and international agencies extended their helping hand; in the form of monetary and non-monetary assistance, to recover from this massive calamity Apart from playing the role of re-builders, such aid also posed negative externalities giving rise to new issues (issues related to human system as well as to ecosystem) in the fisheries sector (Amarasinghe, 2007: Integrated Regional Information Networks IRIN, 2007: Khasalamwa, 2009)

The subsistence fishery, which SSF once was, has been modernized to some extent with the entry of technological innovations, especially after the ‘blue revolution’ (technological revolution in the fisheries sector after the second world war) Technological changes in crafts (size of the hull, material of the hull, propelling methods, capacity of propellers and number of crafts), gears (type, size and quality

of material used for manufacture) material of gears, specificity of species, size of the gears and etc.), fishing techniques (trolling, lining and netting techniques) and many other new additions have obviously improved the efficiency of the SSF sector (Amarasinghe, 2005) However, as many agreed while enhancing fish production of the SSF sector (Amarasinghe, 2005), blue revolution has obviously caused a decline in the health of the coastal resources Post tsunami development

in the sector with new crafts and gears, new technological introductions, additional number of efforts, changes in marine physical environment, destruction of habitats must have amplified this situation

While the fisheries sector and marine ecosystems were witnessing such a chaotic situation, Climate Change was playing an unnoticed role for several decades in the back of the stage With the escalation of anthropogenic threats on environment,

Climate Change too has started accelerating all above impacts on fish resources and those exploiting them During the years 2015 and 2016, this has caused a 4% drop in coastal fish production, as stated by MFAR (2017) According to the report presented at the United Nations Environment Summit in Poland, Sri Lanka is ranked second under Global Climate Risk Index 2019 (Ada Derana, 2018) In Combining so far observed and projected Climate Change scenarios in Sri Lanka, Ministry of Mahaweli Development and Environment Authority, MMDEA (2016) identified three major changes in Sri Lanka’s climate; i) Increase in ambient air temperature, ii) Changes in the distribution and intensity of the rainfall pattern and iii) Rising intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as storms floods and droughts Apart from the above major changes, few other climate change scenarios confronted by Sri Lankan coastlines are, Sea level Rise-SLR and frequent observations of cold-water currents near the continental shelf Unlike the changes

in temperature, Sea level and rainfall pattern which take time to change, Cyclones/ storms followed by storm surges, heavy land falls and floods are sudden and could

be extremely devastative to coastal communities as well as for coastal resources (Wijethunga, 2014)

Evidently, all above factors had a strong influence on the sustainability of the resources to a varying degree Nonetheless, what is important is to note that, impacts of all these anthropogenic activities, Climate Change and unexpected natural disasters (which are not related to Climate Change) are interlinked and it is

no longer possible to find simple solutions by taking into account one set of impacts alone Hence the study has adopted a step-by-step strategy to evaluate how each factor affects the status of resources; technological development, tsunami and the impacts of climate change

1.1 Problem Statement

Maintaining a sustainable resource base is the key for securing a sustainable fishery But Sri Lanka’s multi-species and open-access fisheries, with resources being exploited by a multiplicity of craft-gear combinations operated by a poverty-stricken fishing population, resource conservation and management and maintaining the sustainably of the sector would be a colossal challenge for a

country like Sri Lanka Under such conditions, occurrences of unexpected natural disasters like tsunami and changes associated with the process of re-building of the sector, unregulated technological changes, etc and impacts of the climate change, etc would definitely worsen the situation

Human settlements along the coastal belt are frequently prone to natural disasters Nonetheless, the tsunami in 2004 was something extraordinarily different to those natural disasters fishers had confronted earlier, due to its force, extent of impact as well as the complexity of impacts; immediate impacts- physical, biological, economic and social, and, impacts related to post tsunami build up issues, had on these poor coastal fishers

Huge death toll had led to a collapse of the family structure, disturbing the flow and capacity of family income while massive destruction of the vessels (75% of nation’s boats) and gears crushed the livelihoods of fishers (nearly a total of

200,000 livelihoods) (Ratnasooriya et al., 2007: United Nations News, 2005)

In ‘building back better’, huge influx of tsunami aid brought into the country too imposed significant negative impacts on the sector As stated by many, more than 70% of the destroyed and damaged crafts and gears were replaced with new ones

(Ratnasooriya et al., 2007), yet often with lower quality (IRIN, 2007) Some of

them were pulled back ashore after a couple of trips to the sea Thus, the operation, maintenance and reparation costs further increased the cost of production Lack of proper coordination and competition among aid providers resulted in over supply

of crafts (Amarasinghe, 2007: Stirrat, 2006) These excess physical capitals attracted more and more new comers into the sector, increasing the competition over available resources (IRIN, 2007)

Though many of the fish resources along the continental shelf were not heavily exploited by the time of tsunami, some immediate post tsunami evidences revealed

a decrease in some fish resources such as Anchovies, Lobsters and Tuna (FAO, 2007) This could be a result of both bathymetry changes of the continental shelf created by the tsunami waves (Chatenoux and Peduzzi, 2005) plus anthropogenic effects continuously being created by the man Ranjan et al (2008) highlights the effect tsunami has caused on coastal mangroves; the loading of inorganic nutrients

and heavy metals in soil and water pausing threats on feeding, breeding and

spawning ground of many commercially important fish species As Pari et al

(2008) explains, massive erosion of coastal sand dunes has made the coastal areas more vulnerable to storm surges Deposition of the eroded sand in near-coastal areas has shallowed the water affecting craft operations and some fishing techniques like beach seining As the reports by NARA (2005) and Tamelander (2005) depict, reef damages negatively affected the existence of the reef fish; both larger- groupers, snappers, sweetlips and emperors, and smaller- damselfish, butterflyfish, gobies and wrasses, whereas the latter has completely disappeared from some reef areas Thus, by now, all these changes coupled with increases in fishing pressure and other anthropogenic threats have resulted in rapid depletion of available fish stocks signaling an overexploitation (Rodrigo, 2012)

Even though the term climate change is only ‘vaguely’ understood by rural coastal dwellers, the impacts of these climatic changes are being felt by the fishing populations although they may not relate these changes to the climate Being the major causal agents, frequent storms and heavy rainfalls have increased the number

of no fishing (or zero fishing) due to rough seas (Amarasinghe and Jayasinghe, 2015), while causing heavy damages to craft and gear Recent unprecedented escalation in severity and the frequency of the storm surges and rainfall followed

by the floods and landslides were the major reasons (among many other climate related changes) why Sri Lanka was ranked the second most vulnerable nation to risks of climate change (Climate change Risk Index), as reported by Eckstein and the group (2018) According to recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC special report (Guldberg et al., 2018), global warming, especially the increasing sea surface temperature, is fueling the occurrences of very intense tropical cyclones with very high wind speed and low centric pressure Under the other changes, beach erosion reducing the area available for craft anchorage and post-harvest activities, frequent flooding and saltwater intrusion, landward migration of coastal wetlands, destruction and damage of coral reefs and sea grass beds are few of the direct aftermaths of the Sea Level Rise which are already being experienced Frequent occurrence of cold-water currents (due to ice melting in the North) has drawn the fish stocks away from the fishing grounds whilst sudden

changes in water currents have created problems in fishing Changes in both atmospheric and ocean water temperature have evidently posed its threats on the physiology of fish, as discussed in the sections below Such changes in distribution, demography and stock structure of individual fish species have further implications for sustainability, resilience and adaptability to Climate Change or other pressures Therefore, one of the key adaptations for reducing the impact of Climate Change is to reduce fishing pressure (Brander, 2007), yet the opposite has been resulted ever since tsunami occurred in Sri Lanka.

Moreover, to maintain all the management obligations at their optimum levels; optimum level of employments, optimum profit levels with self-sustaining fish stock, a country should have a well-established strong management system To make the management system strong it should be assisted with standardized quality data recording and management system In the case of contemporary Sri Lankan fisheries management system, none of the above exists In the above respect, the main purpose of this study was to identify, understand and analyse the above biological and economic changes and their impacts on the small-scale fisheries sector, with evidence from the Hambantota district of the southern province of Sri Lanka, through an integrated approach In achieving this goal this study recorded and analysed the pre and post tsunami changes in technological progress, fish catch and catch composition, level of effort, costs and revenues and status of fish resources under the current rates of exploitation Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate how changes in bio-physical and bio-economical changes caused by the storms/ strong winds would affect the status of fish resources

to underline the importance of taking into account the effects of changes in key climatic parameters into fisheries management decisions

1.2 Research questions

1 How fishing technology (number of fishing crafts), fish landings and fish composition have changed overtime, particularly before and after the Tsunami?

2 What were the changes in fishing related costs before and after the tsunami?

3 What were the pre and post tsunami exploitation levels of the fisheries resources in southern Sri Lanka?

4 What was the major climate change parameter in the area and its impacts on level of fish stock, fish growth, fish harvest, fishing effort and fishing related costs and revenues? What implications such knowledge would have for the future of the small-scale fisheries sector of Sri Lanka?

technology-2 To estimate and analyse changes in costs associated with fishing operations before and after the Tsunami

3 To assess the status of fish resources in the southern small-scale fisheries of Sri Lanka through bio-economic modeling

4 To analyse the changes in major affecting climatic parameter- strong wind/storms and its impacts on status of fish resources, fishing effort, costs and revenues and, direction of change of the small-scale fisheries sector in Southern Sri Lanka

: LITERATURE REVIEW

This section provides an overall analysis and a review of existing literature, explaining how other researchers with their subsequently developed theories have contributed to broaden the horizons of existing knowledge while narrowing down the gaps in the scope of this study

2.1 Overview of Sri Lanka and Sri Lankan fisheries sector

Sri Lanka is a small island in the Indian Ocean situated below the southernmost tip

of India, which is separated from India by Palk strait and Gulf of Mannar The island is located between 6º and 10º N latitude and 80º and 82º East longitude It is bestowed with an ocean area of seven times its land area that support more than 2.7 million of its islanders with fishing and fishery related livelihoods (MFAR, 2016b) Out of 21.2 million total population in the country (World Bank, 2018), 1% (221,560) are active fishers including both men and women where number of marine households recorded to be 190,960 (MFARD, 2016a) Out of total fish production in the country, still the highest proportion of 51.6% comes from the coastal fisheries sector while 34% and 14% contribution are given from the Deepsea fishery and inland and aquaculture sectors respectively Out of 60,330 national fishing fleets 84% (50,669 fleets) operates under marine sector while only 16% is being utilized by the inland sector Out of this 84% marine fleets, 48% represent OFRP crafts while 39% and 4% represent NTRBs and MTRBs respectively Having such significance, marine sector has been able to cater 60%

of the nation’s animal protein need while sharing 1.3% of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) (NARA, 2016)

Fisheries resources in Sri Lanka can be broadly categorized into three types; i) Marine resources, ii) Inland resources and iii) Brackish water resources Marine fishery resources are exploited by two groups of fishermen; coastal fishers and off shore/ deep sea fishers and the two fisheries are named as coastal fishery and deep-sea fishery The coastal fishery is confined to the narrow continental shelf and its slope area of 16-40 km2 width that provide habitats for 610 of recorded fish species Merely

200 fish species are recorded to be living in shallow or coastal sea bed around the

island (Amarsinghe and Amarasinghe, 2005) (See appendix 1 Table 1.1 for different fish species harvested by SSF of Sri Lanka.)

2.2 Small-Scale Fisheries of Sri Lanka

There is no single definition for “small-scale fisheries” In fact, what small-scale fisheries means vary from region to region and from country to country where it’s

been practiced (Favero et al., 2014) Sri Lanka’s small-scale fisheries can be simply

defined as a ‘fishery that exploit the fish resources within its 30,000 km2continental shelf with boats fitted with outboard engine and, traditional artisanal crafts, fishing mostly for subsistence for their family consumption, and sell the excess catch in local markets’ which is more compatible with the definition given

by Food and Agriculture Organization, (1998); “Small-scale/ and artisanal fishery

is traditional fisheries involving fishing households (as opposed to commercial companies), using relatively small amounts of capital and energy, relatively small fishing vessels (if any), making short fishing trips, close to shore, mainly for local consumption.” Further supporting this FAO 2019 explains SSF as, a way of life strongly adheres to local communities representing low cost fishing methods as well as other variety of fisheries related activities such as fish processing, boat building, net making and fish marketing

In the above respects, basic features of the small-scale fisheries sector in Sri Lanka are the following

‒ Fishing fleet comprised of small crafts fitted with outboard motor, motorized traditional craft and traditional stationary fishing gears

non-‒ Fishing operations carried out within a day and limited to coastal waters (40 km), lagoons, rivers and freshwater bodies

‒ Modern technical inputs are minimal

‒ Fishing operations are influenced by seasonal changes (monsoonal specifically for non-mechanized crafts

changes)-‒ Operations depend largely on family labor and a high level of owner participation

(NARA 1998 in Wijeratne and Maldeniya, 2003)

2.3 Technical characteristics of Sri Lanka’s fisheries sector

As Amarasinghe (2006) and Amarasinghe and Amarasinghe (2005) describes, Sri Lankan fishers employ wide range of craft and gear combination that can be broadly categorized into two; i) Traditional craft gear combination (planked beach seine craft-

Paruwa, Outrigger Canoe- Oruwa, Log raft- Theppam/Kattamaran and Vallam) and

ii) Modern craft-gear combination (Mechanized Traditional craft, 17-23 feet FRP (Fiber Reinforced Plastic) boats, 3.5 ton Day Boats- 28 to 32 feet crafts with inboard engine, and multi-day crafts) All these crafts, excluding 3.5 ton Day-boats and multi-day crafts, are used in the small-scale fishery (specific characteristics related to each type of crafts are given in the table 2.1) employing a wide range of gears and techniques: trammel nets, hand-lines (used by outrigger canoe), small-meshed gill

nets (log raft, Vallam, modern traditional craft and 17-23 ft FRP boats) rod and line,

bottom set netting and casting nets depending on several factors like type of fish, fishing ground and type of craft, etc (Figure 2.1) All coastal resources are open access excluding beach seine and stake net fishery; which are managed under locally developed entry limits and customary rights (Atapattu, 1994) While bottom set nets and pelagic gill netting are the leading techniques in the coastal fisheries, the former with trammel nets are now banned in reef areas, Purse seine is totally prohibited while bottom trawling is banned in some areas (Rodrigo, 2018 and Rubatheesan, 2018)

Table 2 1 Technical characteristics of Sri Lankan Small-scale fishery

Key

characteristics

Craft category

Planked beach seine craft

(Paruwa)

Vallam Log raft

(Theppam)

Outrigger canoe (Oru)

FRP (Fiber Reinforced Plastic) boats

Oars or paddles

Outboard motor

Oars, paddles or Outboard motor

Outboard motor

Engine

capacity (hp)

Small-Trammel nets, trolling, hand-lining and drift gill nets

Small meshed gill netting, trolling, hand-lining

Beach seine

Hand lining

Long lining

Bottom set nets Multi hook trawling

Single hook trolling

Figure 2 1 Different fishing techniques (craft-gear combinations) used in small-scale fisheries of Sri Lanka

2.4 The blue revolution - Technological change in fisheries sector

With the post second world war developments, modernization of the fisheries sector started transitioning subsistence fishery towards a profit-oriented fishery changing many of the specific characteristics of the SSF sector such as fishing techniques, targeted species, vessel characteristics, gear characteristics, fish processing etc With the mechanization of crafts with an Outboard motor, fishers

Source: Wijerathne, 2001 and Amarasinghe, 2005, Chapter 1

Source: Amarasinghe, 2005, Chapter 1

started fishing in distant waters utilizing various types of efficient gears and fishing techniques such as nylon gill nets, long lines, trolling and etc

A couple of decades ago, the most common fishing gears in use had been drifting nets/ gill nets and fishing lines; hook and line and pole and line Gill nets were fabricated with hem, cotton and coir which made the gear more durable But the disadvantages were that hem and cotton nets were highly visible to the fish and thus avoided due to the dark color and thickness of the thread Moreover, when wet, the nets were heavy, which made handling difficult, apart from needing large space in the craft However, after 1970s these hem and cotton nets had been replaced with synthetic nylon nets which were quite thin, light in color and light weight, which thus became popular among all fishers; coastal, deep sea, lagoon and inland Gill nets with varying mesh sizes were constructed targeting different species different age groups of fish

Lately in 1950s, 3.5ton crafts were introduced with inboard engine which locally called as day-boats (because these crafts were not equipped with an ice compartments, hence they were limited to one day operation), started venturing to further distance waters (areas that could be covered within a day) utilizing large mesh gill nets, long lining and trawling During 1980s deep sea resources exploitation started with the introduction of multiday crafts which were comprised

of an ice compartment and a crew cabin These sophistications in the craft facilitated them with the ability to operate 1-2 months continuously at sea

All these modifications in the sector indeed increase the efficiency of the sector by several folds, yet giving many economic, social and environmental issues Few of such major were high capital intensity (made it costly to adopt), masculinization of fishery (transferring men into multi day crews reduce the women contribution to the sector confining their roles to processing and trading), high cost of craft

operation and resource degradation (Amarasinghe, 2005)

2.5 Assessment of marine fish resources (stock assessments)

Biological fish stock is a group of fish of one species in a given geographical area with an unimpeded gene flow Each stock is independent from other stocks where

sometimes there can be differences between same species of two stocks in two geographical locations Moreover, different biological stocks may be influenced

by different environment factors based on where the stock appeared, which necessitates the importance of assessing each stock separately (Cadima, 2003) Single stock can be exploited by different type of fisheries while different type of fish species may be captured by single type of fishery (Fisheries Research and Development Corporation FRDC, 2018) In contrast, a tropical fishery consists of multispecies, as Pauly (1979) states Indo-Pacific area consists of 6000-7000 species and about 50 species are generally captured by one type of haul

As highlighted by FAO (2011), fish populations around the world are rapidly getting depleted where 70% of global individual fish stocks have been fully, heavily or overexploited or have been depleted either or both biologically or economically (Garcia and newton, 1997) Rising consumer demand and fish price

in the markets has compelled the fishers to exploit the stocks to till its last remaining fish gone and whatever the remain of the depressed stocks are no longer able to compensate the continuously rising demand for fish In order to mitigate stock depletions and to promote stock rebuilding various management measures have been implemented in controlling effort, expecting to control over fish mortality Yet, due to various factors; hidden changes in fishing power, uncertainty

in stock estimates, temporal changes in resource preferences and etc., available

stocks are continuing to be depleted (Seijo et al., 1998) It is evident that inherent

characteristics in both fish stocks as well as in fishery leads to this phenomenon

As Bromley (1991) explains, fishery resources could be categorized under four regimes; state, private, common and open access In open access, resources are not property of any individual thus anyone in the society or community can access resources and harvest them This condition sufficiently leads the way for resource overexploitation (as no optimal resource allocation exists) with unrestricted access

to resources and due to externalities generated resource users Of different externalities, stock externality occurs when new effort additions to the sector result

in increased harvesting costs for others by reducing the stock size (decreasing the catchability coefficient ‘q’) and, technological externalities occurs when fishing gear changes the stock structure, dynamics of the target species and bycatch

changes, affecting the harvests of other fishers, which could be quite significant

In an open access fishery, postponing the catches expecting to harvest larger fish later (allowing the stock to grow) doesn’t benefit the fishers as one effort drop doesn’t create any change since that harvest is likely to be in a basket of someone else, meaning, a single fisher does not possess the ability to change the size of fish stock by reducing effort where there should be an combined agreement among all

to reduce the efforts (Seijo et al., 1998) Even though the aim of management is to

limit the effort level for increasing the efficiency gain, in a country like Sri Lanka which has an open access fishery, managing and controlling the level of effort is impracticable since the aim of management is to optimize the employment opportunities for the subsistence coastal fishers who do not expect a profit, but only

a source for survival

Among the handful of studies conducted in estimating the total biomass of the Sri Lankan continental shelf, the acoustic survey study conducted by Norwegian research vessel–Dr Frgjof Nansen during 1978-1980 is of significant importance Since then, potential yield estimations were not precisely updated in Sri Lanka until mid-2018, when the research vessel-Dr Nansen Fridtjof again conducted its acoustic and bottom trawling surveys to study the abundance and distribution of pelagic and demersal fish stocks According to the findings of 1978-1980 studies, the total biomass of East, West and South continental shelf was 750,000 tons depending on seasonal variations Potential yield for demersal and semi demersal fish was estimated at 250,000-380,000 tons (80,000 tons for demersal) and for pelagic fish it was about 170,000 tons (Blindheim and Foyn, 1980) During 1982, under Bay of Bengal program, a study was conducted in re-evaluating and reanalyzing the old data available on fisheries resources in the country (Bay of Bengal Program, 1984) After all these years, according to the preliminary reports released in 2018 by second survey of Dr Nansen Fridtjof, two pelagic sub groups; one dominated by Clupeoides and the other dominated by Carangids, contained

21000 tons and 101000 tons of total biomass respectively while Demersal biomass was estimated at 53000 tons According to the so far released survey records, some new species which were not recorded around Sri Lankan waters before have been

identified while two new species of sharks and skates have been identified (NARA, 2019)

According to Wijerathne (2001) HMEY, HMSY and HOAE for coastal fishery in Sri Lanka are estimated at 153,680 mt, 165,235 mt and 128,650 mt respectively and

by year 1992 fishery has started to exploit its resources in biological sense But according to Amarasinghe (2006) many of the coastal fish stocks in Hambanthota district are yet to be exploited As discussed by Samaranayake (2003), the level of effort in terms of number of crafts to achieve the sustainable yield (MSY) were; 2,715 crafts for inboard motorized crafts; 7,839 crafts for outboard motor crafts; and 22,146 crafts for traditional crafts Further studies conducted by Ganapathiraju and Pitcher (2006), revealed information on CPUE and length frequency distribution for small boat tuna-line fishery including age and growth information

on Sri Lankan tunas Current exploitation trends in coastal fisheries, combined with increasing level of effort and over-capacity of fleets, have been continuously putting pressure on stocks beyond their ability to recover (Vivekanandan, 2017) For instance, out of the world’s total evaluated fish stocks, 90% of them are either

on the line or have gone beyond their biological level of exploitation (FAO, 2014) Today the majority of the overfished stocks in the world consist of smaller and less valuable fish, hence most of the catches are discarded back to sea before they land These fragile fish stocks result in suboptimal yields where in return, fishers continue to exploit more and more fish resources (European Commission, 2010) Studies that have been carried out using Gordon Schaefer model for coral reefs, suggest that many of the coral reef areas need 60% reduction in fishing effort for the stocks to regain optimal resource levels where this regain in tropical shelves is mostly disturbed by the fish and shrimp trawling Destructive fishing, as a condition that relates to poverty and coastal crowding is particularly related to Malthusian overfishing (McManus, 1997), among other things Assessing the fish resources, especially in tropical areas, is more challenging due to the mixed nature

of the fishery; mixture of craft gear combination with mixture of fish species, hence, in achieving this challenge, models should be rich enough to capture these dynamic nature of individual fisheries (Scott & Mosqueira, 2016) Since none of the models can possibly capture the real dynamic nature of any fish stock, no model

can fit data 100% perfectly, making fisheries management decision making quite difficult where management is aiming at control over inputs (effort) and output (total catch/season/year) (Vivekanandan, 2017)

2.6 Climate Change and associated impacts on fisheries

Even though the primary sources of the global climate change are from the developed nations, underdeveloped nations with low economic capacities, low political power and high population densities are the ones who suffer most from these worsening and ceaseless climate changes (Jayathilaka, 1998) As, IPCC

(Portner et al., 2001) explicates, all the island nations and states with long

coastlines, especially along the tropical belt, will be highly battered by global Climate Change, where Sri Lanka too is classified under vulnerable island nations for these Climate Change impacts Low lying coastal areas are more sensitive and prone to these frequent phenomenal changes such as rising temperature, frequent and intensified droughts, storm surges, flash floods, erratic rainfalls (intensity and

pattern) and SLR (Athulathmudali et al, 2011: Nianthi and Shaw, 2008) In a

situation of 3.4 mm global Mean SLR/year (Lindsey, 2017) and 3-1 mm SLR in Asian region (MMDEA, 2016), projected SLR for Sri Lanka was 0.3 m for 2010 and 1.0 m for 2070 Tidal records of Colombo harbor mention SLR of 0.6 mm which is a result of thermal expansion of the Indian Ocean water in response to rising sea surface temperature Sri Lanka has been experiencing a temperature rise

of 0.016oC per year for the past 100 years and this trend has been intensified ever since Based on the Climate Change predictions for Sri Lanka a +5oC marginal temperature rise (Asian Development Bank, 1994; Scheffer, 1992 cited in Nianthi and Shaw, 2008) coupled with increased rainfall and intensified dry weather periods are being projected for next few decades (MMDEA, 2016) Among three resources that will be heavily battered by these changing climates, water resources have been put front where fisheries and tourism has been identified as the top vulnerable sectors that depend on marine water resources (Jayathilaka 2008 and

Athulathmudali et al., 2011) As enumerated in figure 2.2, even though

Hambanthota has been identified as a moderately vulnerable district to climate change, with regards to the impacts on marine fishery and inland brackish water fishery, heavy threats from SLR have been levied upon this district

Figure 2 2 A District Level vulnerability to climate change B Marine

fisheries sector vulnerability to sea level rise C Inland and brackish water fishery vulnerability to sea level rise

Source: Ministry of Environment, Sri Lanka, 2011

As the figure 1.2 (in Appendix 1) illustrates, the impacts that climate change could exert on fisheries sector follow a pathway from physical impacts on marine environment (SLR, ocean acidity, Sea Surface Temperature and etc.), followed by impacts on fish and their ecosystem (biological, phenological, geographical and behavioral) to impacts on fisheries community, overall society and economy (level

of fish landing, composition of fish catch, exportation, nutrition, livelihoods and etc.) (Macfadyen and Allison, 2009) Chambers (2013) and Jones and Cheung (2014) stated that, in response to these effects of Climate Change, both direct and indirect, marine fish, especially ones commercially exploited, are undergoing geographical and phonological changes

In the face of direct affects, when species specific thermal tolerance level is exceeded, the physiology and behavior of fish species are changed, mutating their growth and development, body size, feeding, reproduction capacity, mortality

(Brander, 2007) and distribution; spatially (Yemane et al., 2014) as well as vertically in the water column (Perry et al., 2005) Temperature induced water

column stratification increase the fish’s depth distribution, however, will be limited for the species which are not adapted to hypoxic conditions Due to this shift in distribution, warm water species are recorded to be dominant in world catches in

past few decades (Simpson et al., 2011) Nevertheless, degree of these climatic

effects on fish stocks depends on factors such as, the intensity of the Climate Change in a particular area and the sensitivity of the fish species to that particular

A

C

B

degree of Climate Change whereas, sensitivity depends on how far the stock is being stressed biologically, physiologically and demographically (Brander, 2013 and Brander 2007) Therefore, for any fisheries management system to be called

as successful, it should have included all these interactive effects; anthropogenic, climate change and other natural disasters like tsunami, in it as all are integrated and interrelated in the real situation

Since 1990s, as a preparation to cope with and to battle against climate change, Sri Lankan government had made considerable efforts, i.e acquiescence of UN framework of Climate Change (1994) and Kyoto protocol (2002), implementing Green House Gas inventory (1994), first and second national communication on Climate change, initiating Advisory committee on climate change, establishing climate change secretariat, preparing National climate change policy, National climate change adaptation strategy, establishing Centre on climate change studies, etc., revealing the threats climate change has been posing ever since (Jayathilaka, 2008) An array of state ministries have joined hands to develop integrated plans for coastal development which will help in mitigating the threats posed by storm surges, flash floods and coastal erosion

When the broad climate change scenario is broken down into the level of its single climatic parameters, unexpected and frequent storms and storm surges has been identified as one of the three prominent climate changes in Sri Lanka by MMDEA (2016) Storm surges; “a rise in sea level due to a massive piling up of water under the force of strong winds against the shore” (Wijethunga, 2013), are a result of tropical cyclones, being the most devastating threat next to tsunami to the coastal region However, as he illuminates, cyclones and storms are of greater importance than tsunami due to heavy threats and damages they cause frequently Tides of the storm surges can develop up to 20 feet in height and with a width covering miles long coastlines Strong cyclones with greater strength undoubtedly can develop catastrophic storm surges, which definitely would amplify by shallow offshore waters (US Department of Commerce, 2011) Sri Lanka is located at the edge of the tropical cyclone belt Therefore, the severity of the threats could be lesser when compared with the neighboring nations But whenever a cyclone is built at the Bay

of Bengal, it definitely changes the whole weather system in the country (UNDP, 2014) Majority of the storms that cross Sri Lanka are developed in the Bay of Bengal while only a very few are developed in the Arabian Sea (Wijethunga, 2013)

Srisangeerthanan et al (2015) define tropical cyclone as “a region of violently

circulating air having a low-pressure warm central core relative to its surrounding” which develops over tropical or subtropical oceanic waters These tropical cyclones possess the ability to produce strong winds, heavy landfalls, storm surges (UNDP, 2014) that can create flash floods and specifically when over the oceanic waters can form violent ocean currents up to deeper depths Tropical cyclones with its maximum sustained wind lower than 18ms-1 are defined as tropical depressions When its windspeed exceed 18ms-1 limit they turn into tropical storms and based

on the area they build up, they are given names as hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones (Landsea, 2000) When a tropical cyclone is over the Western North Atlantic, Central and Eastern North Pacific, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico with a wind speed of 33 ms-1, it is called a hurricane Typhoons occur over North Western Pacific Ocean while Cyclones refers to tropical cyclones formed over Indian Ocean and South Western Pacific When a tropical cyclone’s central windspeed exceed the limit 119 km/h, such are named as severe cyclonic storms (UNDP, 2014)

A wide range of tropical cyclone classification exists due to some factors such as regional variability in methods used in climatology, difference in quality as well as

the quantity of data and etc (Srisangeerthanan et al., 2015) Under the

classification system used by the Sri Lankan meteorological department, which has based on the frequent storms and cyclones that cross the island, ones with sustained wind speed of 62-88 km/hour are known as cyclonic storms and 118 km/hour are known as severe cyclonic storms According to the historical records, Sri Lanka has witnessed 16 cyclonic storms including five severe cyclonic storms during the past century (Wijeratne, 2013) Providing the evidences, the Figures 2.3 illustrates the paths of the so far occurred storms cross the country while figure 2.4 illustrates the level of vulnerability each district has to the storm surge hazards As both the

figures highlight northern part of the island get more storm hazards than the southern parts

Since the coastal line is heavily battered by any of the storm surges, fisheries form the main sector that sustain heavy damages by each and every storm that cross the country Rather than the visible physical damages they sustain on fishery (damages

to fishing assets-gears, boats, motors, wash away the crafts, damages to household and infrastructure and deaths and missing of fishers), storms also pose hidden physiological, phenological and geographical threats on fish and fish stocks as well

as on their ecosystems Strong currents formed by the winds destroy the near shore habitats; coral reefs, sea grasses and mangroves, which provides feeding, breeding and spawning grounds that act as the fish aggregate sites, hence, affecting fish growth, recruitment, migration, species distribution and their availability (Jayathilaka, 2008) Sediments carried by the flood inflows settle on benthic areas, reduce the oxygen levels for fish eggs increasing the mortality of eggs, and sediments also create physiological stress for fish which reduce their growth Toxic sediments washed in with flood water cause mortality of fish, making the area unsuitable habitats for fish Debris brought along with flood water entangle in reefs, chasing the fish away from those aggregate sites Eroded shoreline adversely affects the seine fishery and narrowing beaches limit boat landing sites

(Athulathmudali et al., 2011) So, what is evident from all these facts is that, hidden

under the name of climate change, high frequency and intensity of storms cause calamities to the fisheries sector every year, much stronger impacts than what the

2004 Tsunami caused However, the above being said, it is to be noted that only a handful of studies have been conducted to find out the exact impacts of climate change on the fisheries sector, which is especially true with the impact of frequency and intensity of storms

When impacts of climate change on fishers generalized, impacts on the assets and the livelihood activities could be kept at front Sustained mild to heavy damages

on their household properties, crafts, gears and even on lives has multiply their costs by many folds These rises in costs followed by decline in revenue due to loss

of fishing days and reduction in total fish harvests due to collapsed fish stocks

Figure 2 3 Tropical storms crossed

Sri Lanka

Source: Srisangeerthanan et al 2015

indeed has crippled their economies (Deepananda, 2013) Poor to very poor coastal fishers unable to cope with one shock followed by another and sometimes several shocks in a bundle lacking the access to financial capital has eventually made them

to fall upon their last resort- the natural capital Since fish resources are already exhausted and catches are low, fishers have been compelled to engage in destructive fishing methods and this vicious cycle would continue until the last fish

in the stock is gone

In all above respects, it is quite evident that fisheries in Sri Lanka has gained good development in its technology despite their aftermaths on the fisheries resources Climate change too has been supporting this resource degradation in varying degrees with their direct and indirect effects on human system as well as on ecosystem Realizing this situation, many around the world has started to focus their attention on analyzing the level of fish resources, yet Sri Lanka is at its initial stage regarding this particular matter Further, though many are discussing the impacts of rising technology and rising climate change, majority of them have not been able to explain the impacts in terms of a quantity For an effective scientific fisheries management knowing the exact degree or a quantity a particular change

in climate could impact would be really helpful in taking adaptation measures and avoiding possible conflicts in the process of coping with climate change, and such gaps are yet to be filled

Figure 2 4 Storm surge hazards of Sri Lanka

Source: Wijethunaga, 2013

: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Study area

Hambantota district of the southern province was purposively selected for the study, in achieving the objective of assessing pre and post tsunami status of fish resources in southern Sri Lanka due to a number of reasons; a It is the second highest affected coastal district of Sri Lanka by the Tsunami of 2004; b It is the worst affected district of the southern province, and, c The third poorest district in the country where 32% of its population live below the poverty line (Department

of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka, 2012) Located in the dry zone, accounting for 1/25 (2600 km2) of the total land extent, Hambantota district is located at 6.24670N and 81.07550E (Figure 3.1.A) The general climate of the district varies between arid to semi-arid with an annual average temperature ranging between 26.8 0C -28

0C The district receives an annual average of rainfall of 1000 mm-1900 mm from two monsoons; Southwest and Northeast The highest rainfall is received during May-October from the Southwest monsoon which is of a great importance for the district’s fishery Having a 151 km coastal belt which is occupied by a number of lagoons (16), harbors, bays and sand dunes, fishery and salt industry have become the leading industries that contribute to the district’s economy next to paddy cultivation (District secretariat-Hambanthota 2017 and Nissanga, 1994) Out of a population of 646,493, 14,990 are engaged in fisheries as active fishermen, feeding their 10,720 fishing families (District Secretariat, Hambantota, 2017 and MFAR, 2016a) The average number of fishers per fishing family (1.2 fishers per family)

is higher in Hambantota district than any other area in the island and 93% of the district’s fishers live along the coastal belt (Wijeratne, 2005) Apart from the active fishers, some other fisheries related employments in the district include boat renters, boat repair technicians, fish processors, fish assemblers, whole sale fish

traders and retail traders (Markandu et al., 2005: Department of Census and

Statistics, 2005)

Hambantota district is divided into 12 divisional secretariat divisions consisting of

576 GN divisions (Grama Niladhari Divisions; the lowest administrative unit of Sri Lanka) (District Secretariat, Hambantota, 2017) (Figure 3.1.B) To conduct field studies, more specifically first two key informant discussions, Godawaya fishing village of the Hambantota district was purposively selected based on the severity of impact of tsunami on fishing activities, convenience of data collection, and availability of particular information and the ease of access to such information due to the long experience the University of Ruhuna had in working in this village for an array of previous studies Out of the 12 Fisheries Inspector (FI) divisions in the Hambantota district Godawaya belonged to Sisilasagama FI division The sole livelihood of majority of villagers is fisheries Out of all fishers in Godawaya, a total of 440 active fishers engaged in the coastal fishery (260 OFRP fishers, 39 MRTB fishers and 141 NTRB fishers) and only a handful of others engaged in deep sea fishery with larger crafts such as 3.5ton day-crafts, which has commenced quite recently by a few youngsters The major type of crafts used in Godawaya are; Fibre glass boats with outboard engine (OFRP) (65), Mechanized Traditional boats

GODAWAYA

A

B

Figure 3 1 A Southern province (Galle, Matara and Hambanthota), Sri

Lanka B Twelve Divisional Secretariat Divisions, Hambanthota District

Source: Abeysinghe, 2018

(MRTB) (13) and Non-mechanized Traditional Boats (NTRB) (47) (Amarasinghe and Jayasinghe, 2015)

3.2 Data collection

3.2.1 Collection of Primary Data

3.2.1.1 Key Informant Discussions

Points of views, and insights of fishermen and officers from different fisheries related departments and organizations were obtained with the aid of four Key Informant Discussions (KID) conducted during the study period All KIDs were conducted through non-structured face-to-face interviews However, a list of topics that were expected to be discussed were previously prepared (see the appendix 9) and all the information provided by the key informants were recorded; written and audio, with the permission of the respondents

The first two discussions were conducted in Godawaya with eight and five key informants respectively, which included; the president of the Fisheries Corporative and Rural Fisheries Organization, Field Officer from a Civil Society Organization

(Dakunu Dheewara Sanwidhanaya) few elderly and young fishermen and a few women fisher folk, who all were from Godawaya fisheries village The first

discussion was carried out to get a general insight into the fisheries of the area (both

in Godawaya and in the Hambantota district in general) and to collect general information such as; types of crafts and fishing methods employed, major species captured, new trends in SSF, the socioeconomic status of fishers and their families, experiences of tsunami and post tsunami period and general climate and its trending changes After reviewing the information from the first discussion, the key queries for other KIDs were, laid down

The second, third and fourth KIDs were carried out with the participation of five officers representing the state departments; Department of Fisheries, Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency (NARA) and National Aquaculture Development Authority (NAQDA) Information related to technical characteristics of SSF, cost of crafts operation and major climate changes and their impacts, new technological advancements, use of destructive fishing practices, fish landings and resource status of the area were obtained through these KIDs

3.2.2 Collection of Secondary Data

As for many other studies related to bioeconomic modeling, secondary data played

a vital role in this study too With respect to secondary data, annual total fish catch, composition of catches, and annual number of crafts in the Hambantota district were extracted from the Statistical Department of the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (MFAR), annual progress reports of MFAR and Amarasinghe (2005) Monthly catches of multiday crafts in 2018 was compiled from the records kept at the District Fisheries Inspectors at the Department of Fisheries, Tangalle

In order to calculate the unit fish price, the annual fish prices at Colombo whole sale fish market were obtained from the annual progress reports of MFAR To estimate the annual cost of craft operation, prices of boat hulls, outboard motors were obtained from a leading boat manufacturing company-Neil Marines (Pvt) Ltd., Negombo, while prices of gears were obtained from the New Nylon Sales Centre, Negombo Data on wages (the minimum monthly labor wage) were obtained from the web site-Countryeconomy.com, while annual fuel prices were taken from the official website of the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation With respect

to climate change, secondary data on the frequency of storms were obtained from the open data base of the official web site-Inventor-Disaster information system (www.desinventar.lk) Apart from the above, a host of secondary data relevant to the study were sourced from the annual reports and records of the MFAR and other state departments and authorities of Sri Lanka, published and non-published research reports by state institutes, academics, researchers and journal articles (given in the list of references)

3.3 Data analysis

Diverse techniques of data analyses were employed in this study, based on the objective of analysis and the type of information obtained All primary and secondary data collected were compiled and tabulated in Microsoft Excel 2016 work sheets and all analyses including the regressions were conducted using the Microsoft Excel 2016 statistical software Most of the secondary data were analyzed using descriptive statics and are presented using tools such as line graphs,

X Y scatter plots, bar charts, area charts and tables Gordon-Schaefer (GS)

bioeconomic model was applied to secondary data collected on fish catches, fishing effort, costs and prices (from which, the, unit cost (a), unit price (p) and standard unit of effort were calculated) to find out the status of fish resources in the Hambantota district

3.3.1 Gordon Schaefer bioeconomic model

Gordon-Schaefer model is a combination of biological parameters and economical parameters that explains the status of fish stocks (Flateen, 2016) In its first step, growth of the fish stock is expressed based on a mathematical equation, as given below

(Formula 3.1)

𝐹(𝑋) = 𝑟𝑋(1 −𝑋

𝑘 )

r; Intrinsic growth rate of the fish

population

k; Carrying capacity of environment

In an unexploited fishery (no fishing effort) the growth (in biomass) tends to increase first, reaches a peak and then start to decline, constrained by the factor k,

which is the carrying capacity of the resource base (Schaefer, 1954 in Seijo et al

𝑟𝑋(1 −𝑋

𝑘 ) – qEX But at equilibrium, change of population growth is zero, [ 𝑑𝐹(𝑋)

𝑑𝑡 = 0 ] Therefore, equilibrium stock size can be given by;

(Formula 3.3)

𝑋(𝐸) = 𝑘(1 −𝑞

𝑟𝐸) Equilibrium harvest can be given as,

(Formula 3.4)

𝐻(𝐸) = 𝑞𝐸𝑋(1 −𝑞

𝑟𝐸) This long-term harvest function (3.4) explains, the specific amount of harvest that can be taken from a given amount of fishing effort showing the relationship between harvest and effort used Also, it depicts that the population increase due

to individual growth and recruitment compensates the losses caused by natural mortality and fishing mortality (Seijo et al 1998)

This long-term harvest function can be simplified with the help of some assumption; qk=b1 and (𝑞2𝑘