XÁC ĐỊNH MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA NGUỒN ĐẦU TƯ TRỰC TIẾP NƯỚC NGOÀI VÀ CÁN CÂN THƯƠNG MẠI Ở VIỆT NAM

From some characteristics of FDI infow, export and import values We want to find the long run relationship between them by using Johansen test for cointegration and then us[r]

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175 (15)

N¨m 2017

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Đặng Ngọc Huyền Trang và Đtg Tạp chí KHOA HỌC & CÔNG NGHỆ 175(15): 165 - 170

165

DETERMINING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT

INVESTMENT INFLOW AND TRADE BALANCE IN VIETNAM

Dang Ngoc Huyen Trang*, Duong Thi Thuy Linh

TNU University of Technology

SUMMARY

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and trade balance are two important factors in balance of payment In Vietnam, quite a long time trade account always is deficit and FDI inflows is higher than FDI outflows Does the success in attracting FDI cause trade balance be deficit? Johansen test for cointegration result confirms the long run moving together between them in Vietnam From some characteristics of FDI infows, export and import values, we want to find the long run relationship between them by using Johansen test for cointegration and then using vector error-correction model to find the long run and short run causality running from export and import values to FDI inflows Then we find the causality in short run and long run running from trade balance to FDI

Key words: FDI; export; import; unit root; Johansen test; causality

INTRODUCTION *

An inward investment involves an external or

foreign entity either investing in or

purchasing the goods of a local economy A

common type of inward investment is a

foreign direct investment (FDI) This occurs

when one company purchases another

business or establishes new operations for an

existing business in a country different than

the investing company's origin

In developing or low income countries,

investment demand is larger than saving, the

outsourcing is very important to robust the

development of economies Vietnam is in the

same situation By reforming economy and

opening the door, Vietnamese economy can

gain high growth rate, average rate during

period 1990 – 2015 was above 6.5% (World

Bank) [9] where the role of FDI would not be

ignore FDI helps increase amount of

employment, compensate the shortage of

capital to increase investment, enhance the

transfer of technology and promotes the

integration in the global economy but The

most important role of FDI enterprises in

Vietnam is to increase in export value of

Vietnam Their export values were around

57.2% and 62.5% in 2005 and 2014

*

Tel: 0915208709; Email: Dangngochhuyentrang@gmail.com

respectively, helping the national economic open and integration of economic globalization

The FDI inward including numbers of projects, total registered capital and implementation capital increase as time path, detail in figure1 Particularly, shardly increasing in 2008 of registered capital, but falled after that, however the implementation capital increase all phrase from 1990 to 2014 Vietnam is successful in attracting FDI inflow in ASEAN only after Singapore in recent years, detail in figure 2 After 2012 FDI inflow in Vietnam is nearly close to Thailand and Malaysia and far from other countries likely Lao, Combodia, Myanmar, Philippin Specially, the speed of increasing FDI inflow is quite smooth, it is not likely Malaysia or Thailand, fluctuating a lot, particularly recent years VietnameseFDI ourward, the value is very small at the beginning of period 1990-2014 and then increase some years in the mid, after that it continues to decrease In short, FDI outflow is small value and unstability in all period from

1991 to 2014

International trade including export and import values increases all phrases with special characteristics Firstly, most of this period import value is higher than export value, meaning that trade deficit, only being

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surplus some recent years from 2012 (World

Bank) [9] Secondly, the export value from

domestic sector decrease from around 73% in

1995 to 32.6% in 2014 whereas foreigned

sector’s export values increase from around

29.7% to 76.4%

Figure 1 FDI projects licensed during period

1988 – 2015

(Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam [8])

Figure 2 FDI inflows in some countries in ASEAN

(Source: UNCTAD [7])

Thirdly, the import value from the domestic

sector is around 82% and 43% in 1995 and

2014 respectively, while foreigned sector’s

import value is 18% and 57%, shown in

figure 3, 4 and 5 The most important thing,

Vietnam signed FTAs and have trade

relationship with many partners over the

world Likely, in 1995 became member of

ASEAN (AFTA), Vietnam- USA bilateral trade Agrement in 2000; Asean – China FTA (2004); Asean – Korea (2006), member of WTO in 2007;… Only in 2013, Vietnam had trade goods and services with 240 countries and territories (VCCI) These events can help Vietnam is easier to import and export goods and services to the rest of the world

From some characteristics of FDI infow, export and import values We want to find the long run relationship between them by using Johansen test for cointegration and then using vector error-correction model to find the long run and short run causality running from export and import values to FDI inflow

Figure 3 Exports and imports (% of GDP)

(Source: Worldbank [9]

Figure 4 Export values by kinds of economic sectors

Figure 5 Imports values by kinds of economic sectors

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167

SOME LITERATURES ABOUT THE

FACTORS AFFECTING ON FDI INFLOW

IN VIETNAM

A numorous literatures study about the factors

affecting to attract FDI inflow In Vietnam,

researchers find some factors affect on

attracting FDI inflow as follows:

Hoang Thi Thu (2010) [5] using OLS

estimation method to determine the factors

attracting the FDI in Vietnam and finding that

market size, GDP growth, trade openness and

better infrastructure development are factors,

but not found a strong relationship between

FDI and human capital quality Tam Bang Vu

(2008)[4] using time-varying coefficients in an

augmented production function and let FDI

indirectly affect Gross domestic product

growth through labor productivity and find that

FDI has significant and positive effect on labor

productivity and economic growth in Vietnam,

but the effect is not equally distributed among

economic sectors Hoang Thi Thu (2010) [5]

using panel data method across sixty-one

provines in 1995-2006 shows the strong and

positive the effect of FDI on growing the

Vietnamese economy

Le Hoang Ba Huyen (2015) [3] using

questionaires to determine the main factors

affect on attracting FDI in Thanh Hoa

provine The result shows that availability of

resources factors, infrastructure factors and

financial factors are significant Shiba

Shankar (2016) [6] using Johnson

Co-integration test for find out the long run

relationship between GDP, FDI Danish

Ahmed Siddiqui (2013) [1] using Johansen

Juselius co-integration technique and the

Granger causality test and find out the long

run relationship between FDI and current

account and long run causality between FDI

and current account in Pakistan economy

James P Walsh (2010) [2] using a GMM

dynamic approach to address concerns about

endogeneity and analyze the various

macroeconomic, developmental, and

institutional/qualitative determinants of FDI

in a sample of emerging market and developed economies

For this study I will find the long run relationship between FDI, export and import value in Vietnam by using Johansen test co-integration and running vector error correction model to find out the short run and long run causality between FDI, export and import DATA, METHODOLOGY

To reinforce this relationship between FDI, export and import I use data from 1996 to 2014 and Johansen tests for cointegration and then testing the causality running from exportation and importation to FDI inflow For this study data have been taken from two sources as dependent variable and independent variables Dependent variable is inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inward FDI data is extracted from UNCTAD database

Independent variables include export and import goods and services as percentage of GDP They are extracted from Worldbank I have given co-integration equation:

LFDIt = αo+β1Exportt+β2Importt+Ut Where LFDIt : natural log of total inward FDI

in period t; exportt as a share of GDP in period t=export/GDP; Importt as a share of GDP in period t=import/GDP; Ut is disturbance

To use Johansen co-integration test all variables must be non-stationary in level and stationary in the first order different To serve

my purpose Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test is applied to check unit root of variables and then if existing co-integration between them I use the VECM to find the long run and short run causality between FDI inflow, export and import

RESULTS Unit root test Using ADF test with three variables, log of FDI inflow, export and import to test which is variable stationary in level and the results of ADF test in level as in table 1

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Table 1 Augmented Dickey Fuller test (at level)

Variables Trace

statistic

1% Critical value

5% Critical value

10% Critical value Result -3.750 -3.000 -2.630

lFDI -0.214 Significant at 1%

Export -0.155 Significant at 1%

Import -0.852 Significant at 1%

(Source: Data base compiled by author)

Absolute value of Trace statistic is less than critical value at 1%, all variables are non-stationary

in level Then I test unit root for the first different of all variables and the result in table 2

Table 2 Augmented Dickey Fuller test (at first different)

Variables Trace

statistic

1% Critical value

5% Critical value

10% Critical value Result -3.750 -3.000 -2.630

lFDI -2.690 Significant at 10%

Export -3.982 Significant at 1%

Import -4.470 Significant at 1%

Absolute value of trace statistic of export and import is greater than critical value at 1%, meaning that they are stationary in the first different at 1%, absolute value of trace statistic of natural logarithm of FDI is greater than critical value at 10%, lFDI is stationary at 10% in the first different It shows all the variables of our study are integrated of order one

Co-integration Test

After ADF test for all variables at level and at first different, satisfying condition to test Johansen co-integration, we have the result as table 3 We see both trace statistics and max statistics give the same result Absolute Trace statistic is 13.09 is less than critical value 15.41 at 5% And max statistic is 13.01 is less than critical value at 5% That is the number of co-integration between three variables equals one We can conclude foreign direct investment inflow, export and import have long run relationships, meaning that they move together in the long run Because three variables are co-integration, we can run VECM model to find the long run and short run causality between them

Table 3 Johansen tests for cointegration

Johansen testa for cointegration Trend: conatant Number of oba = 16 Sample: 1999-2014 Lags = 3 maximum

rank parms LL eigenvalue statistic trace 5% critical value

0 21 -67.856956 53.1337 29.68

1 26 -47.836806 0.91812 13.0934 15.41

2 29 -41.327645 0.55676 0.0751 3.76

3 30 -41.290106 0.00468

maximum

rank parms LL eigenvalue statistic max 5% critical value

0 21 -67.856956 40.0403 20.97

1 26 -47.836806 0.91812 13.0183 14.07

2 29 -41.327645 0.55676 0.0751 3.76

3 30 -41.290106 0.00468

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169

Table 4 VECM model with log of FDI inflow as dependent variable

( 1) [ D_lfdi] LD.export = 0 ( 1) [ D_lfdi] LD.import = 0

( 2) [ D_lfdi] L2D export = 0 ( 2) [ D_lfdi] L2D import = 0

chi2( 2) = 19.71

Prob > chi2 = 0.0001

chi2( 2) = 14.60 Prob > chi2 = 0.0007

Table 5 Testing short run causality jointly running from export lag and import lag to FDI

coef Std Err z P> (95% Conf Interval) D_lfdi

_cel

L1 -.5852405 1654529 -3.54 0.000 -.9095222 -.2609589 Lfdi

LD .2563259 2346701 1.09 0.275 -.203619 7162708 L2D 0008458 2292424 0.00 0 997 -.448461 4501526 export

LD .0055525 014846 0.37 0.708 -.0235451 03465 L2D .0677006 0153918 4.40 0.000 0375331 097868 import

LD -.032951 0169294 -1 95 0.052 -.0661319 00023 L2D -.0579207 0153619 -3.77 0.000 -.0880295 -.0278119 _cons -.2757553 0978923 -2.82 0.005 -.4676207 -.0838899

Vector Error Correction Model

I use the FRE criterion to select the lag order

to run regression and the number of lags used

is three, the result as in table 4 Coefficient of

ce1 is negative and P-value is zero, meaning

that the long run causality running from

export and import to FDI inflow is significant,

meaning that in the long run export and

import cause FDI inflow in Vietnam

How about the short run causality, export lag

2 and import lag 2 are significant, they affect

on the FDI However, export lag 1 and import

lag 1 in short run do not cause FDI inflow I

take add more one test to know export lag 1

and export lag 2 jointly affect on FDI and

import lag 1 and import lag2 jointly affect on

FDI The result is as in table 5 Theprobability

for both export lag 1, export lag 2 and import

lag1, import lag 2 are jointly causality to FDI

is significant, meaning that export lag1 and

lag2 jointly affect on FDI inflow in the short

run and the same with import lag1 and lag2

on FDI inflow

CONCLUSION

Vietnam opened the door to foreigners to

invest and get successes GDP per capita is

2052.319 current USD in 2014 (World Bank)

[9], average economic growth in period

1995-2014 is above 6.5% (World Bank) [9], openness index of economy calculated by import plus export value over GDP increase

on the time path and get 178.76 in 2015 Foreign capital resources contribute an important role in this process To attract more FDI inflow beside other fundamental factors like market size, exchange rate, GDP per capita or improving infrastructure, laws, financial system, open to trade is deciding factor This result is the same with Hoang Thi Thu (2008) [5]

By using Johansen test and again this paper shows that open to trade and FDI have long run relationship, one side trade balance deficit occurred for many years, the other side FDI inflow have increased And reason that Vietnam can attract more FDI is speed of open to trade rapidly By running vector error correct model, import and export are jointly short-run causality running from trade balance to FDI and also are long-run causality

to stimulate foreigners to invest in Vietnam This result can give a direction orientation to policy makers in Vietnam, finding the solution to increase open to trade is the first priority to attract more FDI

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However from the data and result analysis we

can see the cause of attraction of FDI inflow

is easy to take advantage conditions

inexportation and importation The value of

both importation and exportation increase

significantly from FDI enterprises and

decrease significantly from domestic sector

This signal is not good for the domestic

sectors The input and technology for

production process of FDI enterprises are

imported, meaning that domestic sectors have

less roles in the supply chain of theirs so they

are easy to change to other countries if

Vietnamese investment conditions become

more difficult or government want to tight

more conditions likely increasing taxes or

environmental dispute

Secondly, the value of exportation of

domestic sectors decreases significantly

following the time This condition can prove

that the competitiveness capacity of

Vietnamese enterprises is falling in the

international market

Thirdly, Vietnam had signed the free trade

agreements in order to facilitate the import

and export activities However, the import-

export value of the domestic sector has

decreased over time, which indicates that only

the FDI sector has taken advantages of these

incentives This reason may be the most

important one why foreign direct investments want to invest in Vietnam

REFERENCE

1 Danish Ahmed Siddiqui (2013), “The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Current Account: an empirical investigation for

Pakistan economy”, Theoretical and Applied

Economics, Vol XX, No 8(585), pp 93-106

2 James P Walsh and Jiangyan Yu (2010),

“Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A

Sectoral and Institutional Approach”, Asia Pacific

Department - IMF Working Paper, July 2010

3 Le Hoang Ba Huyen (2015), “Determinant of the factors affecting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flow to Thanh Hoa province in Vietnam”, Social and

Behavioral Sciences 172,pp 26 – 33

4 Tam Bang Vu (2008), “Foreign Direct Investment

and Endogenous Growth in Vietnam”, Applied

Economics, Vol 40, No 9,pp 1165-1173

5 Hoang Thi Thu (2010), “Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth in Vietnam?”

ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol 27, No 3, p 295

6 Shiba Shankar PATTAYAT (2006), “Examining the determinants of FDI inflows in India”,

Theoretical and Applied Economics , Vol XXIII (2016), No 2(607), Summer, pp 225-238

7 http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/aptir-2016-ch3.pdf, Cited 10 Sep 2017

8 http://gso.gov.vn/SLTKE/pxweb/en/04.%20Invest ment/-/E04.11.px/?rxid=5a7f4db4-634a-4023-a3dd-c018a7cf951d, Cited 10 Sep 2017

9 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP GNFS ZS , Cited 10 Sep 2017

10 https://www.gso.gov.vn/Default_en.aspx?tabid

=515, Cited 10 Sep 2017

TÓM TẮT

XÁC ĐỊNH MỐI QUAN HỆ GIỮA NGUỒN ĐẦU TƯ TRỰC TIẾP NƯỚC NGOÀI

VÀ CÁN CÂN THƯƠNG MẠI Ở VIỆT NAM

Đặng Ngọc Huyền Trang*, Dương Thị Thùy Linh

Trường Đại học Kỹ thuật Công nghiệp – ĐH Thái Nguyên

Dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) và cán cân thương mại là hai yếu tố quan trọng trong cán cân thanh toán Trong khoảng thời gian dài (1986-2012) cán cân thương mại của Việt Nam luôn bị thâm hụt và dòng vốn FDI chảy vào luôn cao hơn Thành công trong việc thu hút FDI có phải là nguyên nhân khiến cho cán cân thương mại bị thâm hụt? Chúng tôi sử dụng kiểm định Johansen tìm kiếm mối quan hệ nguyên nhân kết quả giữa cán cân thương mại và FDI Bằng cách

sử dụng thử nghiệm Johansen để hợp nhất và sau đó sử dụng vạch lỗi chỉnh sửa, từ một số đặc điểm của FDI, giá trị xuất khẩu và nhập khẩu, chúng tôi đã tìm ra bằng chứng cán cân thương mại

là một phần nguyên nhân dẫn đến thành công trong thu hút đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài ngay cả trong ngắn hạn và dài hạn

Từ khóa: FDI; xuất khẩu; nhập khẩu; unit root; Johansen; quan hệ nhân quả

Ngày nhận bài: 12/9/2017; Ngày phản biện: 07/11/2017; Ngày duyệt đăng: 29/12/2017

*

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SOCIAL SCIENCE – HUMANITIES – ECONOMICS

Bui Hoang Tan - Ownership situation public field-land in Ha Chau district, Ha Tien province through studying

Doan Thi Yen - Tu Duc king’s attitude towards Catholicism before and after 1962 9 Tran Minh Thuan - The land problems and spontaneous fights of farmers in Bac Lieu province under the

French domination 15

Dong Van Quan - Types of democratic regime in the history and the present socialist democratic regime in our

Le Thi Giang, Le Thi Huong - The original of formation of Ho Chi Minh thought on human beings, human

Cao Thi Phuong Nhung, Ngo Thi Quang - Ho Chi Minh’s talk about the study of theoretics in “the orientation

speech at the opening ceremony of the first theoretics class at Nguyen Ai Quoc Institute” 33

Luu Thu Trang - The tragedy of Grigori Melekhov reflected in the relationship between Aksinia and Natalia in

Nguyen Dieu Linh - Onychostoma laticeps in culinary culture of white Thai people in Son A commune, Van

Nguyen Thi Tan Tien, Ha Thi Hang - The diffrences of learning outcomes of students having taken the

general informatics course with students obtaining the IC3 certicate at Thai Nguyen University of Medicine and

Dau Thi Thu - Training pedagogical profession for students through real professional activity experience 61

Nguyen Ngoc Binh, Duong To Quynh - Testing and assessing the learning outcome of the volleyball subject

for students at Thai Nguyen University of Economics and Business Administration 67

Luu Quang Sang - Some suggestions of teaching Chinese characters for Vietnamese students 73

Hoang Thi Hai Yen - Applying Ho Chi Minh’ ideology about morality in building morals, lifestyle of students

in Thai Nguyen University of Technology currently 79

Phung Thi Tuyet, Nong Hong Hanh - Assessment of the project-based teaching and learning of the students

major in Chinese at School of Foreign Languages, Thai Nguyen University 85

Tran Hoang Tinh - Situation and measures for planning and directing the implementation of disciplined

education for students at centers for national defense and security education 91

Hoang Thi Ly - role of scaffolding activities in enhancing english reading skills among first year college

students 97

Duong Thi Hong An, Dang Phuong Mai - Evaluating the EFL courseware at Thai Nguyen University of

Ta Thi Mai Huong, Nguyen Van Thinh, Nguyen Thi Hanh Hong - Effects of portforlios on improving listening

comprehension skill for students: a case study at Thai Nguyen University of Economics and Business

Tran Tuan Anh, Do Van Hai, Tran Thi Thu Thuy, Hoang Van Hung - Research building multipurpose

Nguyen Thi Gam, Dao Thi Huong - Influence of service quality on customer satisfaction at Vietinbank- Thai

Nguyen Thi Thanh Thuy - Foreign direct investment with the socio-economic development of Vietnam 129

Journal of Science and Technology

175 (15)

N¨m 2017

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